NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2022- Game 5-7 (May 25-29)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks- Games 5-7

The NBA PlayOffs have not really had the in-game drama as much as the television executives would have hoped, but there is no doubting that some of the Series have been very competitive.

We have already had a couple of Series needing a Game 7 to determine a winner, while the Eastern Conference Finals look well on the way to another final game decider between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.

By the time you read this, the Golden State Warriors may have earned their spot in the NBA Finals, but the chances are that they will not need too many chances to complete the win over the Dallas Mavericks having moved to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.

It has been a good Round for the NBA Picks with a 6-1 record through the first seven days of the Conference Finals with one more selection to be completed. I will have the updated totals in this thread on Wednesday when the Pick for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals will have been made.

Momentum is a good thing, but the layers are also on top of the numbers with the limited games on the board meaning they can put in a really good effort to be right on the money when it comes to the lines. That makes beating them even more challenging, but it has been so far so good in the Conference Finals so far.

Wednesday 25th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 5 Pick: The Boston Celtics led wire to wire in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and they were able to level the Series with the Miami Heat at 2-2. While they did have a big lead at the end of the First Quarter, the Celtics will know they still have room for improvement and they are unlikely to face a Miami Heat team that was as out of sync as they were in the last game.

The starters all struggled in that loss, while the absence of Tyler Herro will have hurt the second unit- Herro looks like he may have to sit again, but I cannot imagine the Miami Heat play with the same lack of intensity as they showed in Game 4. Jimmy Butler earned plenty of rest in the second half as the Heat pulled their top players, although the Heat also need him to get back to the level he showed early in the Series.

Miami did not shoot the ball very well and they know the likes of Butler, PJ Tucker and Kyle Lowry are hurting, but a return to home comforts should offer the team a boost. You can't imagine them shooting as poorly as they did in Game 4, while the Miami Heat will be motivated by the fact the layers have them down as the home underdog.

They did respond to the Game 2 defeat by making a fast start to the First Quarter of Game 3 and that helped the Heat edge in front before the Boston Celtics levelled things up for a second time in the Eastern Conference Finals.

I am expecting much better from Miami in Game 5, but the Boston Celtics have already won a game here during the Eastern Conference Finals and will certainly believe they can do that again. They will also be the first to admit that they did not shoot the ball as well as they can in their blowout win over the Heat, but a dominant performance on the glass helped the Celtics come through with a vital win before heading to South Beach.

Boston will be looking for much better from the three point shooters who struggled to a 24% effort in the win in Game 4. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Grant Williams combined for just 4/26 from beyond the arc and the Celtics will be desperate to have Marcus Smart back in the line up after he missed the win at the TD Garden on Monday.

Marcus Smart has been shooting the ball well from the three point range and his Defensive ability is a huge part of the successes that the Boston Celtics have had. The absence did not have a major impact on the Defensive side of the court, but I think Marcus Smart will be needed in this tough road environment and especially if the Celtics want a spark at both ends of the court.

Recent Game 5 trends in the Conference Finals suggest Miami could be the team to back, but I think this is going to be one of the more competitive PlayOff games we have seen in the post-season in 2022. I am expecting both teams to shoot a little better than they did in Game 4, while the Celtics have produced an 8-2-1 record for the over in their last eleven as the road favourite.

At the same time the Miami Heat have a 9-2 record for the over in the last eleven games when they have played a team with a winning record. The first three games in the Eastern Conference Finals have all trended to the over and the total for this Game 5 looks low enough to believe it is one that will surpass the line.

I am expecting both teams to shoot the ball better than they did in Game 4 and especially from the three point range, which should see the teams carry the game over the total. Picking a winner is far from certain in this pivotal game and I will instead just focus on a relatively high-scoring game being produced.

Thursday 26th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After the events in Texas that have sickened most sensible people, Steve Kerr was emotional in his pre-game presser as he called on the lawmakers of the country to change the legislation to make life safer for children who have suffered mass shootings at schools far too often.

Basketball, and all other sports, are clearly not the be all and end all when tragic events like those we saw on Tuesday occur, but players have to do their jobs.

While the bigger picture was clearly on the mind of the Head Coach, there will also be some internal questions as to why the Golden State Warriors continue to struggle when it comes to a close out situation in a Game 4 of a PlayOff Series. They were trailing by a huge margin by the Third Quarter as the Dallas Mavericks shot very efficiently from the three point line and it meant Steve Kerr decided to pull his starters for the majority of the Fourth Quarter.

Some of those only returned when the bench players gave the Warriors a late opportunity to perhaps steal the game away, but ultimately the Golden State Warriors fell short and they will be looking for much greater intensity when returning home for a second close out opportunity.

The Dallas Mavericks have far from given up from turning the Western Conference Finals around and become the first team to win a Series from 3-0 down, but that means winning twice on the road at the Warriors. All they can do is take things a game at a time, while the Mavericks will be hoping the role players continue to shoot the ball as well as they did from the three point range last time out.

In Game 2, the Mavericks shot well in the first half here before they turned ice cold in the second half and allowed the Golden State Warriors to take control. At this stage of the post-season, I am not expecting the Mavericks to change their approach and that means moving the ball and hoping the role players continue to shoot lights out from the three point mark.

Ultimately I think that is beyond them and the Dallas Mavericks are just 3-6 on the road in the post-season, while the Warriors have won all eight home games.

Home comforts should help Golden State being much more intense all around and they have won a couple of games here against Dallas by wide margins already in the Western Conference Finals.

Recent trends in the Conference Finals favour them too- favourites have gone 11-3 against the spread in the last fourteen Game 5s played in the Conference Finals before this season, while teams coming in off a loss have produced a 10-4 record against the spread. The higher Seeded team have also dominated recent Game 5s in the Conference Finals too and all of these trends can be met by Golden State with another big home win on Thursday.

The Warriors are 4-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite.

At the same time, the Dallas Mavericks are now 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog and I do think it is much more difficult for the role players to keep their shots flowing in road games.

Golden State won by 25 points here in Game 1 and 9 points in Game 2 and I do think the Warriors can win and cover as they book their place in the NBA Finals next week.

Friday 27th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 6 Pick: A low-scoring Game 5 saw the most competitive First Half of the Eastern Conference Finals so far, but the Boston Celtics knuckled down after the break. That saw them continue to suffocate the Miami Heat on the Defensive side of the court, but the Celtics were also able to find some rhythm Offensively and now bring a 3-2 lead back to the TD Garden.

It has been twelve years since the Boston Celtics last made it through to the NBA Finals, but four losses in the Eastern Conference Finals and two of those from this position means there should be a focus and intensity to their Basketball.

They cannot take anything for granted, but the Boston Celtics have all of the momentum having secured back to back wins and holding the Miami Heat to 82 points and 80 points in those victories. Make no mistake, the Celtics will not want to start Game 6 as they did the last one when struggling from the field, and that means getting Jayson Tatum going as early as possible and looking for the role players to step up with more consistency at home.

Being at home should make that possible and the Celtics will want to come out with real intensity and aggression.

However, they also have to expect the Miami Heat to be much better than what we have seen from the Number 1 Seed in the last two games. Injuries are hurting the Heat at the wrong time of the season, but the players are all expected to suit up, including Tyler Herro, in what is a must win game for Miami.

Jimmy Butler has really struggled since picking up his knee injury in Game 3, while the likes of Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker and Gabe Vincent are all on the injury report ahead of this big game. The Heat have struggled shooting the ball from any distance and they have not been able to get to the foul line as quickly or as often as they would have liked.

Can much change now? Possibly- you have to expect Miami to shoot better than they have in the last two games considering how they played all season, while Jimmy Butler may choose to leave it all out on the court in a bid to bring this Series back to Miami for a Game 7.

In saying that, it is hard to argue against the momentum the Boston Celtics have picked up by winning consecutive games for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals. They are a much more experienced team these days so it is hard to imagine them blowing a 3-2 lead again in the Conference Finals, while recent trends in Game 6 of this Round favour the Celtics too.

The last four teams that have tried to close out the Conference Finals in Game 6 have all won and covered their handicap mark having won those games by an average of 14 points per game. Boston have also continued the strong run Number 2 Seeds have had in the Conference Finals when set as the favourite having covered two out of three times they have been in that spot in this Series.

This is a very big number and the early money has been on the Miami Heat to move the line down, but those teams favoured by 5 or more points have put together a 3-1 record against the spread in the Conference Finals this season. It means those teams have improved to 34-22-1 against the spread since 2013 and I do think the Celtics may have too much scoring for the Heat to keep up with using players limited by injury.

In recent seasons the Miami Heat have been a strong team bouncing back off a loss and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a double digit loss at home.

However, the Boston Celtics are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games overall and they look capable of closing the Eastern Conference Finals here.

Sunday 29th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 7 Pick: Back to back Series have ended up in a Game 7 for the Boston Celtic having blown an opportunity to join the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals in a home loss on Friday night. There will be frustration and one or two mental demons to exorcise considering many of the Celtics were part of the group that blew a 3-2 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals.

No one should be panicking, but the Celtics can ill-afford to start as poorly as they did in Game 6, especially not on the road. Turnovers in the First Quarter and then late Free Throws missed when the game was tied proved to be costly for the Boston Celtics, but they have to feel they are still the better team.

In saying that, can you really look past the Miami Heat? Jimmy Butler was back to his very best in leading the Heat with 47 points in Game 6, but the role players also stepped up and made some big plays late in the game to secure a return to South Beach for this huge Game 7 and they are clearly inspired by being ruled out by so many.

Once again they are going to be feeling like they are being disrespected as the home underdog, while teams that have won Game 6 in the Conference Finals have produced a 3-1 record straight up and against the spread in the last four times this has been needed. There are other trends that are going against the Boston Celtics too and that is a concern, but again I have to say they feel the better team with more to control.

They have shown they can contain the Miami Heat Offensively and Jimmy Butler is still playing on a sore knee so it has to be asked if he can produce the same as Game 6 two nights later.

Boston will feel they lost control of Game 6 and still had a chance to win it, while the favourite looks to have the money behind them going into this Game 7. Injuries could play a part, but this is the stage of the season where bodies have to be put on the line knowing there is a few days between the end of the Conference Finals and the start of the NBA Finals.

I expect tension, I expect the home crowd to be firmly behind the Miami Heat and I would love to see the referees take a step back and allow the players to decide the outcome of the match. That could be a factor if they get too involved, but this should be a really good game between two teams who have had some ups and downs in the Conference Finals.

For the most part, the Boston Celtics have looked more consistent and with control of their own destiny and they did win here in Game 2 and Game 5.

They have also covered in their last six games following a straight up loss, while the Celtics are 20-6-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven road games.

Miami have been very good at home and there is no doubt they will compete right to the end, but Boston are 4-1 against the spread in their last five here and I will back them to come through another Game 7 in their PlayOff run this season.

MY PICKS: 25/05 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 203.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

26/05 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

27/05 Boston Celtics - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

29/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 9-3, + 5.19 Units (13 Units Staked, + 39.92% Yield)

Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)

First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2022 (May 25th)

Tuesday at the French Open was filled with emotion after Jo-Wilfred Tsonga called time on what has been a very successful career as the leading French men's player for a long time.

In an era outside of the one we are seeing, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga would likely have won at least one Grand Slam title, but his talent still managed to shine through with wins over Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal and on the biggest stages in Grand Slam events. It wasn't enough to win a Slam, but he did reach the Final in Australia and had deep runs in all of the other events to underline how good he could be on his best day.

Jo-Wilfred Tsonga also appealed to the fans with his charisma and was very approachable and appreciative of the fans and he will be someone that is missed on the Tour.

While one Frenchman was calling time on his career, at the time of writing Gilles Simon is hoping to prolong his own. Gael Monfils misses the tournament with an injury, while Richard Gasquet has made it through to the Second Round as the era of the Four Musketeers looks to be ending.

Other home hopes have managed to move through the draw, but there is a void to be filled at the top of French tennis on both the ATP and WTA Tours and the fans will be hoping some of the fresher faces can begin to come through, It won't ever be easy to see those players break through, but French Tennis has long produced talented players and there is little doubt they will again.

It has been a tough opening for the Tennis Picks, but I have also been very close to having a number of winners on the board. The Stefanos Tsitsipas failure to cover on Day 3 really hurt when you think of all the break points he missed in key games, including two match points on second serve when it looked like he may edge to the cover.

That alone would have swung the totals after the First Round, but it was not to be and I remain a little frustrated with some of the results being returned.

The Second Round begins on Wednesday and I am looking for the start of a much more positive remainder of the tournament.

Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Corentin Moutet: All credit has to be given to Corentin Moutet for coming from a set down to beat a former French Open Champion in the First Round, but now he has to take on the very best in the Second Round. The win over Stan Wawrinka will have given him confidence and Corentin Moutet is playing in the Night Session at the French Open with the home fans likely to get firmly behind him.

However, it has to be said that a win over Wawrinka is one thing, but beating Rafael Nadal on this court is a monster challenge for any player on the Tour. While Stan Wawrinka is working his way back into top form, Rafael Nadal is about as healthy as he feels he can be going into the French Open and his title win at the Australian Open underlines how well Nadal is still playing.

The foot injury is one of concern and you do have to wonder if that potentially flares up at any moment, but the match up in this Second Round looks a really good one for someone as intense as Rafael Nadal. He dominated Jordan Thompson in the First Round and won comfortably, while the feeling is that Corentin Moutet doesn't have the firepower to really keep the Spaniard at bay.

Before this tournament began, Corentin Moutet has not played much tennis on the clay court as he has dealt with an injury of his own. He has only held 67% of service games played in those matches and even a limited returner like Stan Wawrinka had considerable success against the Moutet serve, which does not bode well against someone like Rafael Nadal.

Anything other than a Rafael Nadal win will be a huge, huge surprise, but the question is whether he has enough to cover what is a wide handicap mark. The Rafael Nadal serve will determine that and is someone who can look after this side of his game very well on the clay courts, although you have to respect the fact that Corentin Moutet's strength is his returning side of his game.

Rafael Nadal is going to need to break serve at a very high rate to cover this mark, but he has shown he is capable of getting on a roll on the clay courts and there is very little let up from Nadal when he has an opponent down. With the injury he is dealing with on a daily basis, Rafael Nadal is not going to want to hang around in the early Rounds of the French Open if possible and I think that focus all helps against an opponent who is going to have to work extremely hard to win each and every point to be played.

Some players have the power to at least hit enough winners to get through games, but Corentin Moutet does not seem to possess that and I think it will lead to a relatively routine win for one of the favourites to win the title.

Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: A couple of years ago this could have been a match that would have taken place in the second week of a Grand Slam and I think the odds would have been much closer between Grigor Dimitrov and Borna Coric.

Things are a little different going into the French Open.

Borna Coric has been struggling with injury over the last several months and has only recently returned to the Tour. It has been a tough slog for him as he has won just one of the seven matches played before beating Carlos Taberner in the First Round, that also being the first match that Borna Coric has won on the clay courts this season too.

He has been competitive and that has to be respected- the Croatian had won a set in each of the four losses suffered on the clay courts before the French Open and Borna Coric had played three top 100 Ranked opponents in that time. I expect Borna Coric to be competitive in this one too, but he has struggled with his return and may be facing a confident Grigor Dimitrov who has had a really strong clay season and who crushed Marcos Giron in the First Round.

Grigor Dimitrov impressed in that win, but he is also now 9-1 on the clay courts when playing anyone not named Stefanos Tsitsipas. His numbers have been very impressive in those matches with the Bulgarian holding 81% of service games played, but really getting to grips with the return of serve as Grigor Dimitrov has broken in 32% of return games played.

I expect him to put some pressure on the Coric serve and Grigor Dimitrov should be able to find the breaks of serve to be in a position to cover what would have been considered a massive spread even eighteen months ago. It won't always be easy in the match and I think Dimitrov is going to have to play with clear focus and not allow Borna Coric to build any confidence, but Grigor Dimitrov is playing well enough to think that can happen.

Even if he drops a set, I think this is a mark that can be covered by Grigor Dimitrov in a three or four set win in the Second Round. Borna Coric is a very talented player, one who will be back amongst the top players in the months and years ahead, but this match may come too soon and Dimitrov can earn his place in the Third Round on Friday.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Korda - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jil Teichmann - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cori Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Camilia Osorio - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Martina Trevisan @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 16-16, - 3.14 Units (64 Units Staked, - 4.91% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2022 (May 24th)

It was expected to be the wettest day of the first week of the French Open and there were a couple of delays and the ending of play slightly earlier than hoped.

Some of the First Round matches that had been scheduled for Monday have to be completed on Tuesday and that means there is a busy day of action to get through.

We have already seen a number of upsets through the first two days of the tournament, but those have largely been in the Women's tournament, although Iga Swiatek continues to play at a level that looks impossible for anyone to match.

Both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic followed Carlos Alcaraz as big First Round winners, but more of the top players will get their French Open tournaments under way.

Casper Ruud - 8.5 games v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga: An impressive career is going to come to an end at some point during the French Open, but Jo-Wilfred Tsonga will be hoping to turn back the clock one more time. He is unsurprisingly a massive underdog in this First Round match as he takes on a top ten player in his home Grand Slam, but Jo-Wilfred Tsonga will have the fans firmly behind him and he still has aspects of his big game that could be potentially dangerous for Casper Ruud.

Injuries have forced Jo-Wilfred Tsonga into the decision to call time on his career, but you can never doubt the heart of the Frenchman. He has made the absolute most out of his talent even when the early part of his career was hit by injury and Tsonga is a former Grand Slam Finalist, and reached a career best World Number 5 back in February 2012.

All respect has to be given to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, who was a personal favourite to watch, and I do hope he has an enjoyable life post-tennis.

Unfortunately I do think the home favourite is going to have a tough time staying with Casper Ruud, one of the better clay courters out there. The Norwegian won the title in Geneva in the lead up to the French Open, but Casper Ruud may be slightly disappointed with his overall performance on the red dirt this season with the numbers dipping back from the high of 2021 to hit 2020 levels.

Those are still decent numbers with Casper Ruud being particularly strong behind serve and I do think that will help him ease into this match. During the clay court season, Ruud has held almost 86% of his service games and this First Round match is against an opponent who has struggled with his return.

One of the main reasons Casper Ruud may not have matched the levels he has shown is that he has not returned as well as he would have liked, although significantly better than Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. The slight dip in the return points won has really impacted the breaks of serve and it is a concern when asking Ruud to cover a number like this one.

However, I do think Jo-Wilfred Tsonga could be worn down in the match and he is only holding 67% of his service games played on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open. I do think he will be inspired early and the match will be quite competitive in the first set, but Casper Ruud should be able to continue exerting pressure with his own serve and the Frenchman may just be overtaken by emotion the longer this match goes, eventually leading to a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard for the top ten player in the match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Twelve months ago, Lorenzo Musetti held a 2-0 lead over Novak Djokovic in the Fourth Round of the French Open and looked like he might have been on the brink of a major upset. The then 19 year old Italian was not able to hold himself together and the body let him down as he was forced to retire in the fifth set, while the now 20 year old has just had a few issues with finding the consistency needed on the Tour.

It has been far from ideal preparation going into the French Open as Lorenzo Musetti was forced to retire from his match in the Madrid Masters against Alexander Zverev with an apparent leg injury. This was certainly serious enough for Musetti to miss his home Masters event in Rome and there has to be some uncertainty about how he is feeling before a very tough First Round match at the French Open.

The match up with Stefanos Tsitsipas has not been a good one for Lorenzo Musetti who has lost their two meetings in 2021. In those matches, Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able to really exert his dominance on the return of serve and he has broken in 45% of the return games played, while holding onto his own serve in 90% of games played.

One of those wins came on the clay courts and Stefanos Tsitsipas has put together another strong season on the red dirt which includes picking up the title in Monte Carlo before reaching the Semi Final in Madrid and the Final in Rome. Being in the bottom half of the Men's draw in Paris has given Stefanos Tsitsipas a real chance to play in the Final here for the second year in a row having lost in five sets to Novak Djokovic in 2021.

He had a 2-0 lead that day, but Stefanos Tsitsipas continues to play his best tennis on this surface and I think he holds all the cards to win this match and win by a margin that would make a statement to the rest of the draw.

Lorenzo Musetti is a strong return player and he could cause problems, but if his movement is still restricted, I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas can move him around and wear him down. The Greek superstar is a very consistent return player on the clay courts and I think he has enough all around tennis to continue his dominance of his younger opponent as Stefanos Tsitsipas moves through to the Second Round.

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: He never really hid his dislike of the clay courts, but the run in the French Open in 2021 showed Daniil Medvedev what he can do on this surface. Injury and the decision to have surgery meant Daniil Medvedev missed almost the entirety of the clay court season with the sole tournament he joined in Geneva ended in an opening match defeat to Richard Gasquet.

You can forgive Daniil Medvedev for making a slow start in that match considering the length of time he has been away from the Tour and adding in a new surface, one that he will admit is still not his best. However, the performance in the second set in that defeat will be encouraging and I do think the World Number 2, and soon to be returning to World Number 1, can make a positive start on his return to the French Open.

Playing against a clay court specialist is a challenge, but Facundo Bagnis had a slight injury concern last week in Geneva which forced a withdrawal in the First Round having won a couple of Qualifiers.

The numbers overall for Facundo Bagnis are decent, but you do have to remember that he does not play against top opponents all the time. Over the course of the clay court season, Bagnis does hold a winning record, but he is just 1-3 against top 100 Ranked opponents and his numbers dip considerably behind both serve and on return.

Being a left hander will make things a bit more awkward against most, but Facundo Bagnis would naturally be going into the strength of Daniil Medvedev and I simply think he will struggle to cope if the World Number 2 is even at 80% for this one.

Facundo Bagnis has a vulnerable serve, one that I expect Daniil Medvedev to attack, and I think it is going to lead to a good win for the higher Ranked player. There will be much tougher tests ahead in the French Open draw, but Daniil Medvedev should be in a good place with that match in Geneva under the belt and his successes at the French Open twelve months ago means it is not the same kind of mental challenge to perform here as there may have been previously.

After a competitive set, set and a half, I think Daniil Medvedev will get stronger and he may just see Facundo Bagnis wilt away in this First Round match.

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Hugo Gaston: In the early Rounds of the Grand Slam events, you get plenty of matches with wide spreads like we see in the First Round at Roland Garros.

Some players are more capable of covering than others, but this looks to be a rare moment in which Alex De Minaur can be asked to get the better of such a spread like this one on a clay court. This is the least favourite surface of the Australian with a largely weak serve not getting any help from the surface like he will on the grass and the clay courts.

Movement is perhaps something that Alex De Minaur is still working out on the surface too, and put those factors together and you can perhaps understand why he has only held 72% of the service games played on the clay in 2022. Those numbers do take a significant step up when only considering matches against opponents outside the top twenty of the World Rankings and that is the level of opponent that Alex De Minaur will be facing in the First Round here.

Of course you do have to also factor in that De Minaur is going to have to deal with the home crowd that will get behind Hugo Gaston, but the Frenchman has had a difficult clay court season after suffering a hand injury in Munich. He had to withdraw from a match on that day, but Hugo Gaston has lost three clay court matches in a row since then and has been struggling to even compete in those defeats.

It has to be a worry ahead of the First Round match against Alex De Minaur, especially with the serve one that can be attacked by someone who is happy to compete all day long like the Australian.

Hugo Gaston has really had a hard time getting into the return games on the red dirt this season, but I expect him to have more joy in this one with Alex De Minaur happy to use his serve as a rally starter in large part.

An edge with Alex De Minaur is the efficiency in winning points behind his first serve and I think that will the main reason he is able to work his way past the home player. Hugo Gaston has to be inspired being back in Paris where he reached the Fourth Round in 2020, but he has not won a match in the main draw at this tournament when the tournament has been played in its usual spot in the calendar in May and I think De Minaur is going to find enough breaks of serve to eventually earn the cover of this mark.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 10-10, - 2.44 Units (40 Units Staked, - 6.10% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2022 (May 23rd)

The weather in Paris had been pretty good in the week leading up to the French Open, but wet conditions are expected on Monday and it could mean a number of matches have to pushed over until Tuesday when the First Round is expected to be completed.

It feels like it is going to be the worst day of the tournament in terms of the weather conditions, but you can see the selections from the matches scheduled for the day below.

After a mixed start to the tournament, I am looking for much stronger results all around.

Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Corentin Moutet: Injury has forced Stan Wawrinka to undergo some serious rehabilitation and he has spent a considerable amount of time away from the Tour. For some players, those injuries may have been too much to deal with at 37 years old, but the former multiple time Grand Slam Champion still believes there is something left in the tank and has been playing in a number of clay court events in the build to the French Open.

Unsurprisingly, Stan Wawrinka struggled early with his timing and rhythm not quite in sync, while match rustiness meant he was always going to have some difficulty in dealing with the pivotal moments within matches.

After losing his opening match in a Challenger tournament played in Marbella and at the Monte Carlo Masters, Stan Wawrinka did win a couple of matches at the Rome Masters before losing to eventual Champion Novak Djokovic. Those wins over Reilly Opelka and Laslo Djere will have given the Swiss player a huge amount of confidence, especially as Stan Wawrinka needed three sets to win both of those matches and has shown he can come through potentially long and gruelling matches.

He is going to have to deal with the crowd getting behind his opponent as Frenchman Corentin Moutet stands across the net from Wawrinka in the First Round in Paris.

Like Stan Wawrinka, Corentin Moutet has been dealing with injury and the left hander has dropped outside the top 100 in the World Rankings, while a 1-2 record on the clay courts in 2022 is not very encouraging. All three matches have been against players lower down the World Rankings, while Corentin Moutet also lost his last five matches on the clay courts in 2021.

I do think Corentin Moutet may be the more consistent return player of the two, but the Frenchman also has a much more vulnerable serve. With little match practice behind him, Corentin Moutet looks like he could struggle to stay with Stan Wawrinka in this First Round match at Roland Garros and I think the former French Open Champion can win this one in three or four sets.

Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Lloyd Harris: There are a number of veterans scattered through the French Open draw who have had their better days behind them, but I do think Richard Gasquet can do enough to move past Lloyd Harris in his home Grand Slam

In preparing for the latest French Open in his career, Richard Gasquet reached the Semi Final in Geneva last week and he has also managed to progress to the Quarter Final in another couple of clay court tournaments. This is the latter stages of his career and that has led to Gasquet having some disappointing results mixed in too with the consistency not what it once was, but early losses in the last couple of French Open appearances are largely down to the poor draws he has been handed.

Richard Gasquet has not been at his best on the clay courts this season, but he has shown his veteran ability to play the big points efficiently and put some wins together. The serve is not as potent as it once was, but the Frenchman is returning pretty well and will need all of that to beat Lloyd Harris.

The South African has long shown a dislike to playing on the red dirt and the results in 2021 have not been impressive either.

Lloyd Harris has really struggled with his return of serve and having the patience to build his way into rallies and find the openings, but the serve can be a dangerous weapon when at his best. However, I do think the pressure that is built up by his poor returning numbers has caught with Lloyd Harris on the clay courts, while he has lost his last four matches on the surface ahead of the opening match at the French Open.

The sole previous match between these players came on a hard court and was won by Richard Gasquet- it was back in February 2020 before the pandemic and I do think Gasquet has slipped from that time, although the win over Harris came on a surface that the latter enjoys much more than the clay courts.

With the home crowd behind him to inspire and help push through the difficult moments, I think Richard Gasquet wins this one in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Reilly Opelka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brandon Nakashima @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alex Molcan - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arthur Rinderknech - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 7-7, - 1.68 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6% Yield)

French Open Day 1 Tennis Picks 2022 (May 22nd)

The week before a Grand Slam can be tough to analyse because of the differing motivations of players, especially the top names who may be looking for one or two matches, but not wanting to overexert themselves before the next Grand Slam begins.

After a number of weeks on the clay courts, the French Open will begin on Sunday 22nd May and it is shaping up to be a decent tournament.

After the draw was made on Thursday, the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud could be looking to have a really strong fortnight as they are on the opposite half of the tournament to the big favourites at the second Slam of the season.

Both of these players mentioned are very comfortable on the clay courts and would have felt they were going to have a strong fortnight regardless of the draw, but you cannot help but appreciate the way things have shaped up if you are a part of their teams.

Novak Djokovic won the Rome Masters and will be feeling like he is peaking just in time, while Rafael Nadal remains one of the top clay courters in the world even when dealing with a foot injury. Carlos Alcaraz is the Madrid Champion and is arguably the best player in the world right now and should be well rested, while Alexander Zverev has reached the business end of multiple Grand Slams, but all four of these players are in the same top half of the draw.

Coming through the section will be difficult, while you will have to question how much could be taken out of the tank before the Men's Final and that may pave the way for someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas or Casper Ruud to win a maiden Slam title.

Personally I think it comes down to Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz with the two set for a monster Semi Final match if they can work their way through the draws, but it is going to be a very interesting Grand Slam where the key is to get through the early Rounds as comfortably as possible and not get dragged into the long clay court matches that can sometimes develop.

Iga Swiatek is clearly the player to beat on the Women's side of the tournament and I honestly think it will take an 'act of God' for her to fail to add to the French Open title she won a couple of years ago. Barring injury, the World Number 1 should be able to produce a level of tennis that is unlikely to be matched by the others in the draw and I think Iga Swiatek is going to win the tournament.

Finding someone to oppose Iga Swiatek is not easy- the defending Champion Barbora Krejcikova is going to take part, but is coming in off a long layoff and I don't think she will be able to reach the Final again.

Ons Jabeur has had a really strong clay court season and I think she could be the player to come out of the bottom half of the draw, but the Women's game is pretty open behind the current World Number 1 and I think we are in for a fun tournament to see who can work their way into a position to try and at least challenge Iga Swiatek like we have not seen for a number of months.

It has not been the best clay court season for the Tennis Picks and I have been disappointed by the efforts in the Madrid Masters which have seriously dented the season numbers.

However, I am still feeling pretty happy with the approach going into the French Open and I am looking for a strong event to round out this portion of the year before the move onto the grass courts and the lead into Wimbledon.

The First Round is going to be split over three days to open the event, but there are some rainy conditions in Paris and I think that is going to play a little bit of havoc with the schedule. A new Night Session at Roland Garros should make for interesting viewing for the fans at the event and those watching at home and I will be hoping that the weather doesn't affect any of my selections.

Rain delays can break momentum pretty quickly so it is something to consider.

Day 1 of the French Open gets going on Sunday and my selections from the day will be in this thread. Hopefully this can be the start of a really good two weeks to close out the clay court season.

Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 games v Marcos Giron: This is a rematch of a First Round match at Roland Garros twelve months ago when Marcos Giron upset Grigor Dimitrov. However, it was a match in which the latter looked to be in complete control before his body let him down and the match was actually not completed on that day as Marcos Giron was able to move through to the Second Round.

He is going to need another upset if he is going to get past Grigor Dimitrov in 2022 and I think it is asking a lot of Marcos Giron when you consider the form of the two players during this clay court season.

The American did have a solid win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the Rome Masters, but that has been a rare success for Marcos Giron who has a 3-8 record on the clay courts in 2022. The serve has remained relatively vulnerable on the clay, but Marcos Giron has really struggled when it comes to the return of serve and his numbers have dipped significantly from the return numbers produced last season.

Even those are not really that encouraging and Grigor Dimitrov has reached the Semi Final at the Monte Carlo Masters and may have had further strong runs if not running into one of the top clay courters on the Tour in Stefanos Tsitsipas. Grigor Dimitrov has an 8-4 record on the clay courts this season, but three of those losses have come against Tsitsipas, while the Bulgarian has been pretty strong behind his serve and has a real edge over Marcos Giron when it comes to the return of serve.

I expect that to make the difference for Grigor Dimitrov in this First Round match and I think he has looked stronger going into the French Open than he would have felt in 2021.

Grigor Dimitrov was dominating the return of serve in that match against Marcos Giron here last year and I think he is going to have a serious edge on this side of the court again. This may be a big spread, but he won the first two sets 6-4, 6-2 last year at the French Open against this opponent and I do think Dimitrov is playing well enough to earn the majority of break points in this one too.

As long as he plays the big points efficiently, Grigor Dimitrov can win this match and cover the handicap mark set out.

Alexander Zverev - 8.5 games v Sebastian Ofner: Qualifiers can be dangerous opponents early in any tournament, but it does feel that the Men's Grand Slam matches gives the higher Ranked players plenty of chances to turn a match around if making a slow start. Sebastian Ofner has won three matches in Paris to reach the main draw, but Alexander Zverev will not be too concerned about the opponent and instead will want to make sure he moves through to the Second Round without exerting too much energy.

That has been an issue for Alexander Zverev in his career, but he has had a strong clay court season and will be confident of his chances at the French Open. He has landed in the tough top half of the draw and the German is going to have to improve his returning if he is going to win a first Slam title.

Alexander Zverev's return numbers have been someway down on his previous levels on the clay courts, and it has put additional pressure on the serve.

However, I do think he is going to have far too much for Sebastian Ofner who has had a decent year on the clay courts, but who has largely been operating at a much lower level than the one he is faced with on Day 1 at the French Open. Sebastian Ofner did win six of the seven sets played in Qualifying, but he is going to have to serve at a level he has rarely been able to sustain and I do think this is a match in which Alexander Zverev can build his confidence and momentum the longer it goes.

The higher Ranked player crushed Sebastian Ofner at Wimbledon in 2017 and I think the clay courts should offer Alexander Zverev plenty of opportunities to break serve.

He should be able to push forward with the pressure mounting on a player Ranked outside the top 200 in the World Rankings and I think Alexander Zverev will earn the six or seven breaks of serve he will likely need to eventually cover this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 8.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Christopher O'Connell - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jaime Munar - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Fabio Fognini - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Camila Osorio - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dalma Galfi - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cori Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2022- Joshua Buatsi vs Craig Richards (May 21st)

It took a few more months to determine which of the boxers would become the seventh Undisputed Champion and the first in the Light Middleweight Division, but Jermell Charlo found the big shots late in the bout with Brian Castano to force a Stoppage after the disputed Draw the first time around.

There are some decent Challengers lined up behind Jermell Charlo, but all credit has to be given to the American for Unifying his Division.

He has choices from here- Charlo could wait for the likes of Errol Spence Jr or Terence Crawford to move up and create a genuine SuperFight, or he could choose to move up to the Middleweight Division and see if he can join his twin brother at becoming a Champion at that weight.

Fighting some of the Challengers like unbeaten Tim Tszyu or Sebastian Fundora could be first up for Jermell Charlo, but all the options are in front of him.

Last weekend was also one in which Jaron Ennis continued making an impact in the 147 Division, while Gilberto Ramirez will be looking to line up a shot at one of the top names in the Light Heavyweight Division after blowing away his opponent.

However, there was a setback for Tony Yoka in the Heavyweight Division as he was well beaten by Martin Bakole, despite one judge horrifically calling the fight a Draw. Thankfully that card was overruled by two others and Martin Bakole has set himself up for some big fights in the Heavyweight Division and with a British base behind him, he could soon be having some big bouts domestically.

It was a positive week for the Boxing Picks with some strong results on Saturday helping increase the profit margin on the season.

The biggest priced winner was the Jermell Charlo Stoppage in the second half of that Championship bout, while the likes of Jaron Ennis and Gilberto Ramirez added to the winners.

I do still want my Picks to be more efficient, but I have to be happy with the updated totals for the season.

Kerman Lejarraga vs James Metcalf

A couple of blowout defeats to David Avanesyan saw Kerman Lejarraga's momentum in the 147 thrown out and the decision was made to move up to 154.

The Light Middleweight Division is not as deep as the loaded Welterweight Division and so there is plenty of potential for Kerman Lejarraga to have an impact in this weight class. He has won six straight fights in this Division since moving up, although the Spaniard had to ride out an early storm against Jez Smith before stopping the British fighter in the Seventh Round.

Tyrone Nurse and Jack Flatley are two other Brits who have been beaten by Kerman Lejarraga in the move up to Light Middleweight and James Metcalf will be the latest to try his hand at upsetting the home favourite.

Kid Shamrock was beaten for the first time by Ted Cheeseman when stopped in the Championship Rounds and followed up with a Decision defeat to Kieron Conway, while James Metcalf has been out of the ring for over a year having won his last bout at Middleweight.

Once again James Metcalf is trying to push his career forward by taking a big step up in class having fallen short against Cheeseman and Conway. He did show plenty of toughness in the loss to Ted Cheeseman, but I think Kerman Lejarraga may be better than The Big Cheese and he hits plenty hard having beaten twenty-six of the thirty-four opponents inside the distance.

Since moving up to Light Middleweight, Kerman Lejarraga has won half of his six fights inside the distance and I do think he has carried his power.

A couple of those Stoppages have been earned in the second half of bouts and I do think Kerman Lejarraga is going to have to break down James Metcalf in this one. He should be capable of doing that and eventually getting to Metcalf to get the ref to jump in before the final bell sounds.

There is a pretty deep undercard being run in Bilbao but the only other bout from which I will be making a selection is Jon Miguez' Welterweight bout against James Moorcroft.

It is only an Eight Rounder, but Jon Miguez has been given a chance to beat an opponent who has not really gotten up to this level.

James Moorcroft will give it a go, but he was stopped when he moved up a level in competition and I do think he will struggle to keep Jon Miguez off him down the stretch.

Over in the United Kingdom, Frank Warren has put on a Friday night card at York Hall with some of the younger talent on his roster going out.

Brad Foster has been out of the ring for seventh months since losing for the first time against Jason Cunningham and he has a couple more Draws on his resume too. He is favoured to win this vacant International Title, but Ionut Baluta is going to make him work for everything Foster wants to get out of this one.

I actually think he may have enough of an engine to upset the British fighter having pushed Michael Conlan all the way and Ionut Baluta has the gas tank to make life very difficult for Brad Foster as he looks for better on the cards.

On the same card, Andrew Cain will be looking to extend his unbeaten start to his career to ten fights and the Liverpudlian has stopped eight of his previous nine opponents. He is facing Luis Moreno who was seen in the United Kingdom taking Dennis McCann to the cards, but Moreno was put down late in that one and his other loss as a pro saw him stopped.

I think Andrew Cain will be able to roll through to the finish in this Ten Rounder, but the layers are expecting a very early night for Cain and I think there is some reason to back him to break down Luis Moreno and, instead, stop him in the second half.

There is also Light Heavyweight action coming from Canada on Friday evening as Jean Pascal and Fanlong Meng meet to try and push on towards a World Title bid. The pandemic meant Meng was not able to take on Artur Beterbiev when getting into Mandatory position, but he finally ended a long layoff by winning a Ten Rounder at the back end of 2021.

A Title bid may have to wait, but Fanlong Meng is taking on an inactive Jean Pascal who should have had a rematch against Badou Jack before failing drug tests. It means the Canadian has not been in the ring since December 2019 and that long layoff has to be a major concern.

I don't really rate Fanlong Meng that highly, but I do think he will end up getting the nod against an inactive Jean Pascal. However, if this had taken place a year ago, I may have been much more inclined to back Pascal, especially at the prices quoted for the underdog.

It should work as an effective eliminator with the winner likely to push on towards a World Title shot, but one that may be worth keeping an eye on. Backing Jean Pascal to win a decision at the prices looks appealing, but the two and a half year layoff is not and it means keeping the power dry for a busy Saturday of Boxing.

Joshua Buatsi vs Craig Richards

There hasn't been the kind of ticket sales for the main event at the O2 Arena that it deserves and I think that is partly down to the fact that two of the top Light Heavyweights in the United Kingdom are fighting on a streaming app rather than a platform like Sky Sports.

Ticket sales aside, this is a genuinely good fight between Joshua Buatsi and Craig Richards and the winner is surely going to be in line to fight for a World Title in the months ahead. The Light Heavyweight Division is stacked and some of the Titles are going to be Unified next month, but for Buatsi and Richards this is a huge bout on Saturday to prepare themselves to get in line for a Title shot soon.

Craig Richards has had a taste of the World level having lost a very close fight to Dmitry Bivol, a loss that looks pretty incredible when you think of Bivol's win over Canelo Alvarez earlier this month. That has given Craig Richards plenty of belief ahead of this one and he does feel he has operated at a level that has yet to be tasted by Joshua Buatsi.

Even though he is the underdog, Craig Richards will feel he can give Joshua Buatsi a real test of his credentials and the performance against Dmitry Bivol will add to the confidence.

The win over Shakan Pitters is impressive, but Craig Richards still has plenty to prove against someone who has long been tipped for the top in the Light Heavyweight Division.

Joshua Buatsi impressed in breaking down and stopping Ricards Bolotniks in his last bout back in August, but it has been a considerable layoff for him. He has been a spiteful fighter and does get on top of opponents when has them hurt, while the power has carried into the latter Rounds of his bouts and could prove to be crucial in this one.

I do think it will be a really good fight and Craig Richards is someone who deserves a lot of respect, but Joshua Buatsi can take a big step towards the World Title level. His power and patience has been key under Virgil Hunter and I think we will see more improvements from him having had a number of months to work with the trainer.

I can just see Joshua Buatsi begin to break down Craig Richards in the middle of the Twelve Rounds scheduled and, unlike Dmitry Bivol, I think Virgil Hunter will be urging his man to put his foot down and really go for the finish when the opportunity presents.

I would be foolish to dismiss Spider's toughness, but Joshua Buatsi can be a very efficient finisher when the time presents and I think he will just push down on the pedal in the second half of this fight and break down Craig Richards.

The main event in London looks a really good fight, but the undercard is not as deep as fans would perhaps have liked. It may have contributed to the low sales for the night, but there are a couple of recognisable names looking to get to work.

Alen Babic may not be as good as some believe, but he has been well matched by his promotional team and I expect him to secure an early win over Adam Balski.

A couple of fighters have been able to give Alen Babic a few Rounds in his recent bouts with Mark Bennett lasting Five Rounds and David Spilmont going Six Rounds, but those are some big Heavyweights and could perhaps absorb more than I expect from Adam Balski who has been fighting at Cruiserweight.

He has only lost once so will head to London with some confidence, but Alen Babic is likely to hit him with something very big early and I think Adam Balski may not have the resistance of the 252 plus pound opponents like Bennett and Spilmont. The Savage has not been past Three Rounds in the other eight wins on his resume and I think he can get this one done inside the first third of the scheduled Twelve Rounds and Alen Babic can then perhaps look to move on to a Bridgerweight World Title bid.

After a surprise loss, Robbie Davies Jr won a couple of fights in the second half of 2021 and he will be looking to keep the momentum going when taking on Javier Molina.

At 32 years old, Davies Jr cannot afford another setback, but he has to be wary of Molina who has operated at a decent level and has never been stopped. Javier Molina has not fought for over twelve months though and I think the Robbie Davies Jr skills can see him produce a win on the cards.

Over in the United States we have a couple of different cards which are going to be have main events that could see the winners push on for a World Title shot in the months ahead.

The feeling is that David Benavidez will have far too much for David Lemieux at this stage of their careers and especially with the latter's best work coming at the Middleweight limit rather than Super Middleweight.

Much depends on how much David Lemieux has in the tank, but I do think David Benavidez has the style to break him down and start to put him under the cosh in the second half of this Twelve Rounder.

The favourite doesn't have one punch power, but he won't find it too difficult to find David Lemieux and I expect that is going to be a big problem for the Canadian. I think he will be able to get through a few more Rounds than the layers believe, while David Benavidez has stopped his last four opponents in the Seventh Round or later.

In Las Vegas, veteran Jemel Herring is hoping to upset a young unbeaten opponent as he moves up to the 135 pound Division following his one-sided loss to Shakur Stevenson. Jamaine Ortiz is unbeaten and hungry, but I think Herring may still have enough in the tank to take that one on the cards and I expect him to handle the naturally bigger man who has not really fought anyone of this kind of level before.

An interim WBO World Title is on the line on the same card in the Middleweight Division and I think Zhanibek Alimkhanuly will be able to get the better of unbeaten British fighter Danny Dignum.

The Kazakhstani has beaten a couple of opponents who have reached World level and should have had a shot at Demetrius Andrade, but the American moved up to 168 and an injury means this bout could soon be upgrade to full World Title honours.

It is a considerable step up for Danny Dignum and I do think he is going to have to display plenty of toughness to stay with Alimkhanuly.

Two southpaw fighters may take a bit of time to get used to one another, but I think the step up may be too high for the unbeaten Brit and Zhanibek Alimkhanuly can get the job done in the second half of the bout.

MY PICKS: Kerman Lejarraga to Win Between 6-10 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Jon Miguez to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Ionut Baluta to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Andrew Cain to Win Between 6-10 @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Joshua Buatsi to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Alen Babic to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Robbie Davies Jr to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)

David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Jemel Herring to Win Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.33 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Zhanibek Alimkhanuly to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.60 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2022: 14-22, + 16.16 Units (67 Units Staked, + 24.12% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2022- Game 1-4 (May 17-24)

NBA Conference Finals 2022- Game 1-4

A quick look at the last four teams standing in the NBA would have most unsurprised to read the names of the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors still standing.

The Dallas Mavericks look to be the outlier, but they may have the best player left in the PlayOffs and are coming in off an upset of the Number 1 Seeded Phoenix Suns. The Western Conference certainly looked more open of the two and that has played out with both of the top two Seeds out of the West, but those two Seeds are facing one another in the East.

You could make a case for any of the four teams to win the NBA Championship from here and the first four games of both Eastern and Western Conference Finals will take place over the next eight days. There is little rest time for teams looking to make the adjustments from game to game and you do have to wonder how much of an impact there will be from the Conference Semi Final Series that saw the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics needing to win a Game 7 to earn their spots in the Conference Finals.

Both Series should be fun for different reasons- I think the Western Conference Finals will be a high-scoring one with the veterans of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson trying to keep Luka Doncic out, while the Eastern Conference Finals look like they could be tight, competitive and very physical games between the Celtics and the Miami Heat.

The NBA Picks have not had a very good Conference Semi Final run and I have been a little frustrated by that.

The Conference Finals can be tougher to get a read on with the oddsmakers usually right on top of the lines, but I am expecting better from myself.

As I have done previously, Games 1-4 selections will be contained in this thread, but I will have a new one for Games 5-7.

Tuesday 17th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: When the PlayOff bracket was put together, it felt the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics were rightly down as the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference. Both have backed that up with Series wins over the Atlanta Hawks/Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets/Milwaukee Bucks respectively, but it is clear that the Heat have had the kinder path through to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The two teams have both dropped just three games on their way to the Conference Finals, but the Heat have been off and preparing for a few days after the Celtics were forced to win a Game 7 at home on Sunday.

There are two schools of thought with how this will manifest in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals- the first is that the layoff can affect the rhythm and shooting consistency of the team that have been resting, especially against a focused opponent that hasn't had the same layoff; the second is that Game 7 will have taken something out of the tank of the team having to win a pressurised game and that they could be caught short with this Conference Finals beginning so soon after the Semi Final Series have ended.

In recent years it has been the second of the scenarios which has come true more often than not and teams playing off a Game 7 are winning just 39% of Game 1s in the next Series historically. That has to be a concern for the Boston Celtics who faced one tough opponent and now have to deal with another, one that beat them in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games inside the NBA Bubble a couple of years ago.

Things will feel different this time with the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics both going to have to deal with tough road games, but I do think the Heat have the edge in Game 1, especially with the top Coaching they receive. Even though they only found out their opponent on Sunday, Miami would likely have planned for either the Celtics or Bucks and I do think the Heat will be ready to compete.

Overall I do think the Boston Celtics are the better team, but this opening spot is perhaps not ideal.

The Miami Heat are a very good Defensive team and have the depth and the shooting options to match the Boston Celtics in what feels a more superior way than the Milwaukee Bucks could without Khris Middleton in the line up. The Celtics do have an edge with their three point shooting and will take a lot of shots from long range which always gives them a chance, but the Miami Heat should be able to hold serve in Game 1 with their star players having had the rest an the Heat are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as the home favourite.

Boston have continued to impress in their role as the road underdog, and that deserves plenty of respect, but Game 1 might see them just run out of gas in the Second Half to allow the Number 1 Seed to move into a lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Wednesday 18th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: After a couple of years when injuries have hurt the Golden State Warriors core, the likes of Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Steph Curry all entered the post-season feeling pretty good. The Number 3 Seeded Warriors have long been amongst the very favourites to win the NBA Championship with that core together and the likes of Jordan Poole have stepped up their own level alongside the veterans to make Golden State extremely dangerous.

They have to be respected, although at the same time you cannot ignore the fact that the Warriors are not the same team they were when dominating the top of the NBA a few seasons ago. Those veteran players are perhaps not as consistent as they once were, but I am expecting Golden State to reach the NBA Finals as they face a Dallas Mavericks team that is looking to play a brand of basketball that the Warriors will recognise.

Some have compared the Mavericks to the Houston Rockets of the James Harden era and that was a team that did struggle to match up with the Golden State Warriors until they found the experience they needed to challenge Golden State.

I think that could let the Mavericks down in this Western Conference Finals Series even with Luka Doncic playing at an incredible level.

While he may be the best player on the court, the Dallas role players could be under a pressure to keep the scoring up and this time they are facing an opponent that can be clinical from the three point range. That lack of shooting hurt the Phoenix Suns in the Conference Semi Final Series, but the Warriors will feel they have a number of players that can heat up from long range which will give them the edge.

Dallas did win three of the four regular season meetings so won't be afraid of mixing it with the Golden State Warriors, but they are coming in off a Game 7 win over the Phoenix Suns. As I've mentioned in the preview for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, those teams coming off a Game 7 have struggled in the opening game of their next Series, although Dallas do have one more day of rest compared with the Boston Celtics.

The Mavericks have to be respected for how they have performed Defensively in their Series win over the Phoenix Suns, but they did struggle in the first three road games. The role players will have been given a boost by the blowout win in Game 7 on the road, but this Golden State Warriors team may have too much scoring power in this opening game of the Western Conference Finals if there is some lingering fatigue from the emotions of winning that last game in Phoenix.

Both teams have played well off a relatively long rest for the NBA season, while Golden State have been strong at home with a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine here.

Dallas were just 1-3 against the spread as the road underdog in their last Series and I think the manner of their win in Game 7 will see the team come back to the mean mark and that should be enough to give the Golden State Warriors the momentum to move clear in the Fourth Quarter.

Thursday 19th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: Marcus Smart was always trending towards missing out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the late scratch of Al Horford left the Boston Celtics shorthanded. It sounds like Al Horford will be out until this weekend when the Series heads to the TD Garden for the first time, but the return of Smart could be a huge boost for the team.

They actually outscored the Miami Heat in three of the four Quarters played, but the Heat changed the entire momentum of Game 1 in the Third Quarter when they finished with 25 points more than the Number 2 Seed. It was a lead that the Miami Heat were never going to relinquish at that point and they made enough plays in the Fourth Quarter to hold onto an 11 point win.

You could potentially blame the Game 7 that the Boston Celtics had to win on Sunday, but the reality is that they made too many mistakes in the Third Quarter with turnovers sparking fast break points, and ultimately the Boston Celtics were not able to stop the bleeding with a terrible effort from the field the other way.

Jayson Tatum admitted that he needs to be a lot better if the Celtics are going to win the Eastern Conference Finals, and there is room for improvement from the next star of the NBA. He had seven turnovers and a poor day shooting from the three point range, but Jayson Tatum has shown throughout the NBA PlayOffs that he can bounce back from underwhelming games.

You cannot expect Marcus Smart to be at full health, but his return should make things a bit tougher for the Miami Heat who shot 49% from the field in Game 1. Both teams struggled from the three point range, but the Heat had the deeper bench and that played out in Game 1 to give them the lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

I do think the Boston Celtics will be better with Marcus Smart in the line up though and the zigzag theory has been the play in recent Conference Finals games. Those teams coming in off a loss are 14-4-1 against the spread in the last nineteen games in that spot, while Number 1 Seeds have a poor 15-24-1 recent record against the spread when favoured by fewer than 5 points in the Conference Finals, although Miami have overcome that once already.

Opposing Miami is not easy considering how well they have played at home in recent weeks, while home teams who have won Game 1 of the Conference Finals Series have tended to win Game 2. With this being a short spread, the Heat will feel confident of covering if they are able to win, but I do think the Boston Celtics will make some adjustments that helps them back into the Series.

The Celtics have covered in their last four after a straight up loss and I will back the road team with the points in Game 2 to at least keep this one much closer than Game 1 ended up being.

Friday 20th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: It feels like the Dallas Mavericks have accepted that they are going to live or die by the three point shot and it is asking a lot of the role players to produce consistently on the road. Yes, they won a Game 7 in the Conference Semi Finals at the Phoenix Suns, but the Dallas Mavericks were beaten in the other three road games in that Series and suffered a couple of blowout losses when going cold from the distance.

Luka Doncic is going to be better in Game 2 of this Western Conference Finals Series having had an inefficient Game 1, but the superstar for the Mavericks cannot win the Finals on his own. He knows his team-mates are going to have to be a lot better both with their open three pointers as well as their contested shots having hit just 23% from outside the arc in the blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors.

Despite the wide win, Golden State were not much stronger from three point range and actually hit fewer three pointers than the Dallas Mavericks, but they were a touch more efficient. The Warriors were also happier getting to the Free Throw line and challenge the Mavericks inside the paint, while Dallas attempted way over 50% of their shots from outside the arc.

You have to be wary of the Mavericks getting hot at any time, but they are playing a balanced Golden State team who shared out the points in Game 1. While you cannot expect Andrew Wiggins to have the same kind of Offensive output on any given night, you can look for Wiggins to at least pressure Luka Doncic and make him work for his points, while the rest of the team try to tire him out on the Defensive side of the court.

The line has moved somewhat between Game 2 and Game 1, but the Golden State Warriors still look more capable of keeping the momentum going with the approach they have taken. Big favourites have not been on a very good run in recent Conference Finals outings, but the Warriors covered easily in the first game and I think they can do the same here, even if I do believe this game is going to be closer than what we saw a couple of days ago.

Dallas are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games in the PlayOffs having been blown out last time out, and they did find themselves 2-0 down in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns.

The Warriors are now 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when playing off a double digit win.

I have to have a lot of respect for the Dallas Mavericks who showed plenty of character and heart in their Conference Semi Final Series success, but the Golden State Warriors look to match up well with them and know how to defend teams that have the style the Mavericks bring to the court. While closer, I still expect the Warriors to cover again.

Saturday 21st May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: The first two games have ended in big wins for the winning team, but the Boston Celtics will return home with a split in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals and holding all of the momentum in the Series. The Boston Celtics have outscored the Miami Heat in more than half of the eight Quarters played in the first two games, while the Heat have managed to put more points on the board in just the Third Quarter of Game 1.

Erik Spoelstra is going to have spent the last couple of days thinking of the adjustments he needs to make to turn things around for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. However, things will be much tougher for the Miami Heat if they have to go without PJ Tucker, Max Struse and Gabe Vincent in Game 3 with all three players listed as Questionable in the last Miami injury report.

I do think all will suit up in this pivotal Game 3 with the Series shifting back to Boston and the TD Garden.

However, the Miami Heat are going to be put under intense pressure from the Boston Celtics who looked much stronger all around with Marcus Smart and Al Horford back in the rotation. An improvement was expected, but the Boston Celtics were able to do what they liked on both ends of the court and it is perhaps no surprise that they are going to be heading into Game 3 as a big favourite.

It is hard to see things much differently when you think of how well the Boston Celtics played in Game 2 and they also were pretty strong outside of one Quarter in Game 1. The size and athleticism of the Celtics is tough to match, but I do like how well the Miami Heat have been Coached and the feeling is that they can make the adjustments to keep this one closer than the last game was.

Much will depend on whether the Heat can get closer to the shooters from the three point range in this one, but I do think the Miami Heat will make the adjustments to do that.

The Heat are now 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games when beaten by double digits, while they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog.

At the same time the Boston Celtics are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five in the Conference Finals.

Teams playing with the zigzag theory behind them are 15-4-1 against the spread in the last twenty in that spot. Another trend behind the Heat is that teams who have lost by at least ten points in Game 2 have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten games in that spot and I do think the Number 1 Seed should be respected and looked at as a team that can keep this well within the line set.

Miami did beat a strong Boston team here at the end of March and I think the Miami Heat can upset the odds and keep this one close.

Sunday 22nd May

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: A barrage of three pointers helped Dallas Mavericks move up into 19 point lead over the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 and the underdog had a big lead at half time. However, there has been much criticism of the game management in the second half and a poor Third Quarter allowed the Warriors to get back into the game and eventually use the momentum to kick past the Mavericks.

Being 2-0 down will hurt the Dallas Mavericks who have had to face the music with their approach in the second half of Game 2. Even Head Coach Jason Kidd made it clear that his team had to look for another way to attack the Golden State Warriors when the three pointers dried up in the second half as the game slipped away from them.

In the cold light of day, Jason Kidd seems to have changed his mind and it sounds like the Dallas Mavericks are going to continue to look for the open shooter from the three point range. They have taken a lot more shots from the distance than the Warriors in this Western Conference Finals Series, but the Mavericks are not hitting as efficiently as they would have liked and it has left them in a tough position.

The Dallas Mavericks were in the same position in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns, but they were much better at home in that Series and won all three games played here. The role players have been more confident in hitting their shots at home, while the Dallas Mavericks are 25-10 against the spread in their last thirty-five games at home.

It may surprise some to see the Mavericks as the favourite in this Game 3 at home, but teams coming into Game 3 with a 0-2 deficit have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten times that situation has come up. As mentioned, the Dallas role players have been more confident at home and able to sustain their Offensive output here, and they will look to put the pressure on the Golden State Warriors as they continue to 'live or die by the three'.

There is no doubt that it is difficult to oppose the Golden State Warriors who have been shooting the ball with more efficiency than the Dallas Mavericks and are plenty experienced. They have a depth which means any of their starters could pick up the scoring slack, but the Warriors will know they are going to have to try and match the intensity that the Mavericks will likely be playing with on Sunday.

Golden State have not covered in any of their last four road games and I do think the Dallas Mavericks can be backed here.

The sharp money looks to be on the Mavericks and I think they can cover to reignite this Western Conference Finals Series.

Monday 23rd May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 4 Pick: This is being written out a little later than normal for a very simple reason.

Injuries.

Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics feel banged up ahead of Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and even now there is some uncertainty as to who will be available and who will be having to miss out.

Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are Questionable for this important game for the Boston Celtics, while Jimmy Butler is the big concern for the Miami Heat. It sounds like Butler will suit up despite missing the second half of the previous game, while Tyler Herro could be a big absentee for the Number 1 Seed.

Jayson Tatum looks to have escaped an injury having had an issue with his shoulder in Game 3, but now the attention will be turning to those on the court after the Miami Heat made a fast start and held onto a lead and a win to move 2-1 ahead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

In a strange turn of events, the Miami Heat have only won two of the twelve Quarters that have been played by these teams in this Series, but those have come by a 25 point margin in the Third Quarter of Game 1 and a 21 point margin in the First Quarter of Game 3. Both times it has proved to be the difference with the Boston rally coming up short in the last game, while the Celtics know they can clean up some of their own issues to at least level the Series before we all head back to South Beach.

Turnovers have been the critical issue in both of those Quarters that have seen the Miami Heat pull away and win by big margins. The expectation is that the Celtics have the edge if they can be a little more careful with their basketball handling and I do think they will come out with the intensity they showed in Game 2 after a disappointing defeat.

Boston showed that throughout the Series with the Milwaukee Bucks too and they are now 5-0 against the spread in their last five following a loss. Despite the loss in Game 3, the Celtics remain a solid favourite to back, although you have to respect the Miami Heat for the performances as a road underdog.

However, the Heat were pretty well beaten in road games at the Philadelphia 76ers in the Conference Semi Final Series and I do think they could potentially exhale after taking back home court advantage. With a couple of players banged up and with the Boston Celtics likely to be much more focused and intense, I am not sure the Heat can rely on the home team turning the ball over as much as they have a couple of times in the Series, including to open Game 3.

The public look to be behind the Heat with the points, but I like the Boston Celtics to bounce and continue the zigzag trend in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Home teams that are not 0-3 down going into Game 4 of the Conference Finals are also on a 9-2 run against the spread and I think the Boston Celtics cover on their way to levelling up the Eastern Conference Finals.

Tuesday 24th May

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: After rallying in Game 2, the Golden State Warriors headed to the Dallas Mavericks with a strong lead in the Western Conference Finals, and another strong Third Quarter showing helped the Warriors move to the brink of returning to the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years.

For those who thought the good times for over, this has been a surprising season put together by the Warriors, but all associated with Golden State had much stronger belief in their own team. The veterans of the Championship teams continue to lead the way, but the Warriors are well backed up now and will be confident in securing a win in Game 4 and have plenty of time to prepare for the NBA Finals which begins next week.

However, the Warriors have not been at their best in close out spots with a 3-0 lead in the Series and they are just 6-4 in the last ten Game 4s when they have moved into this position. The Denver Nuggets beat the Warriors in that situation earlier in the PlayOffs, but it is hard to back against the Golden State Warriors.

For starters, teams in a 0-3 hole have struggled in Game 4 of the Conference Finals, while the Dallas Mavericks will also know that no team in NBA history has been able to win a Series when they have fallen into this position.

Luka Doncic continues to try and carry the Mavericks on his back, but he was not helped by the role players in Game 3 with the likes of Reggie Bullock and Max Kleber combining for a 0/15 effort from the field. It wasn't as if the two were having to hit contested shots, but they missed open looks and ultimately it made it very difficult for the Mavericks to break down the Warriors.

At this point I don't think the Mavericks are going to change the plan and I expect them to continue shooting the ball at a high rate from the three point line. You have to believe they are going to have a bounce back effort from the poor outing in Game 3 and we did see the Dallas Mavericks pick up their play in Game 2 after an underwhelming Game 1 effort already in this Western Conference Finals.

Stopping the Warriors will be a huge challenge for the Mavericks who have allowed their opponent to score at least 109 points in each of the wins in the Series. They have a balance Offensive approach and that saw five of their players reach double digits in terms of points in the last game.

Luka Doncic is likely to stay in attack mode as he looks to become the third player in the history of the NBA to score at least 40 points in three Conference Finals games, but the I am expecting better from his role players and that could see this Game 4 surpass the total points line.

It is hard to imagine this Dallas Mavericks team being able to shut down the Golden State Warriors, but with a better shooting effort expected from the hosts, I think Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals Series could hit the over.

MY PICKS: 17/05 Miami Heat - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

18/05 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

20/05 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

21/05 Miami Heat + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/05 Dallas Mavericks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

23/05 Boston Celtics - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

24/05 Dallas Mavericks-Golden State Warriors Over 215.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 5-1, + 3.55 Units (6 Units Staked, + 59.17% Yield)

Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)

First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)