Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2021 (July 9th)

The Ladies Semi Finals have been played, but the Gentlemen's Semi Finals are set for Friday.

My thoughts can be read bekow. 

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: The winning run at Wimbledon continues for Novak Djokovic who is a huge favourite to win the title here for the third time in succession. There is pressure on the World Number 1 as he looks to match the Grand Slam totals of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, while Novak Djokovic is also looking to complete a calendar Grand Slam, but he is vastly more experienced than the three other remaining players in the draw and the history at Wimbledon is hard to ignore.

Novak Djokovic was able to beat Marton Fucsovics in the Quarter Final without too many issues, although the latter didn't disgrace himself in the straight sets loss. Ultimately Fucsovics did not have enough firepower to keep Novak Djokovic at bay and the Serb was able to break four times which means he has managed to do that in each match played in SW19 this year.

The serve continues to be an important weapon for Novak Djokovic, but he is likely going to expect a more challenging match against Denis Shapovalov who has a game that is very pleasing on the eye. The young Canadian is playing in his first Grand Slam Semi Final having come from 2-1 down to beat Karen Khachanov in five sets in his second Grand Slam Quarter Final, while the performances in the build up to Wimbledon on the grass were plenty encouraging.

He was a touch fortunate to get through the First Round and then was the beneficiary of a walkover, but Denis Shapovalov has looked strong in the last three Rounds. The return of serve has been highly effective in those last three wins and that has been a part of the Denis Shapovalov tennis which has perhaps let him down previously.

We all know that the Canadian has a very big serve which can put pressure on opponents, but Denis Shapovalov is going to have to find more against Novak Djokovic who has beaten him in all six previous matches on the Tour. The last of those came on the hard courts in Australia earlier this year, and Novak Djokovic has dropped just two sets against this opponent which gives him a huge mental edge.

Their sole meeting at a Grand Slam was won in four sets by Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, but this is the first time they will play on grass. It may help Denis Shapovalov who has only held 68% of his service games played against Djokovic, but I do wonder if he will have as much joy on the return as Shapovalov has enjoyed in the last three Rounds at Wimbledon.

In their previous matches, Novak Djokovic has held 93% of the service games he has played against Denis Shapovalov. Since their meeting at the Australian Open in January 2019, Novak Djokovic has dropped his serve twice in five matches against Denis Shapovalov and I think the favourite is likely going to find the breaks of serve to move past this handicap line.

Matteo Berrettini-Hubert Hurkacz over 40.5 games: A huge opportunity has opened up for both Matteo Berrettini and Hubert Hurkacz as they get set to play in the Wimbledon Semi Final on Friday, although the tougher path has been tread by the underdog. Hubert Hurkacz has beaten both Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer in the last two Rounds and became the first player to ever bagel Federer at Wimbledon as the Pole ran through the third and final set in a straight sets win.

So while Hubert Hurkacz has two top ten wins, Matteo Berrettini has not played anyone above World Number 19 when beating Felix Auger-Aliassime in four sets in the Quarter Final. It was easily the most challenging match the Italian has played in the tournament so far, but he was able to play the big points well enough to edge past his opponent and Matteo Berrettini's run is far less of a surprise than the Hurkacz run.

Matteo Berrettini has backed up his success at Queens Club to reach the Semi Final here, but Hubert Hurkacz had suffered early defeats at both Stuttgart and Halle before arriving in London. The latter did not win a set in those losses, but the performances at Wimbledon have been hugely impressive from Hubert Hurkacz who has dropped his serve just four times in the tournament so far.

Both of these players are hugely reliant on the big serve and I do think that is going to be the key to the outcome of the match with tie-breakers also a real possibility.

The Italian did not serve as well as he would have liked in the Quarter Final, but even then he was able to hold of Felix Auger-Aliassime in the big moments and Matteo Berrettini has only dropped serve five times himself. He has a big game full of aggressive tennis which should be well suited to the grass, but Hubert Hurkacz is going to bring a new kind of pressure as he looks to close to the net and try and force Berrettini to pass him over and over again.

Hubert Hurkacz is going to be heading into this match off an emotional win over his idol Roger Federer and I do wonder if he is going to perhaps feel the effects of that going into his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final. Matteo Berrettini has had more experience at this level of the Tour and that may give him the edge, but previous matches between the players suggests there won't be much between them.

They have one win apiece with the more recent being a Hubert Hurkacz straight sets win over Matteo Berrettini at the Miami Masters in 2019. Both will feel they are improved players from that last match, but what has been clear is the importance of the serve with both being able to produce big efforts behind that shot.

We should see more of the same here and my slight edge is with Matteo Berrettini who has had the stronger overall Wimbledon and also showed plenty of grass court ability when winning at Queens. However, I do think Hubert Hurkacz is playing at a really good level behind his serve and that is going to see this Semi Final go a little longer and deeper than I anticipate the other Semi Final will be.

Big serves could be the order of the day here and I will look for at least four sets to be played which should see the total game line being surpassed.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini-Hubert Hurkacz Over 40.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 61-49, + 10.98 Units (220 Units Staked, + 4.99% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2021 (July 8th)

The Euro 2020 Finals and the run the England national team have been on has made it more difficult to write out longer posts for the last few days at Wimbledon.

Other aspects of my personal life have been busier too, but I have had time to research the selections for the Women's Semi Finals which are played on Wednesday. Expect a longer post for Thursday's Men's Semi Finals and for the two Finals to be played over the weekend.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber + 3.5 Games @ 

Karolina Pliskova-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 60-48, + 11.38 Units (216 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2021 (July 7th)

It's just been one of those weeks where things have built up all around me and so this is another shorter post than I would have expected.

The Tennis Picks at Day 9 at Wimbledon shifts the focus to the Men's Quarter Finals and there are some good looking matches set to be played.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: It is never easy to win a Grand Slam and there are always dangers lurking in a draw, but Novak Djokovic has to be a strong favourite having won the last two editions of Wimbledon. He has extended his winning streak to eighteen matches here after crushing Cristian Garin in the Fourth Round and Novak Djokovic is playing with a confidence and a belief that is going to be very hard to shake no matter who lines up across the other side of the net.

Novak Djokovic dropped his opening set at this year's Wimbledon, but he has won twelve sets in a row since then and has been largely untroubled.

Now he goes up against Marton Fucsovics who benefited from an early retirement in the Second Round, but has been forced to dig deep in matches all around that. It says something that he has spent considerably more time on the court than Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon already despite going through in the Second Round before the second set was completed, but the former Junior Champion in SW19 has been playing really well here again.

A couple of long four setters have been won by the Hungarian, but he needed to come from 2-1 down to take out Andrey Rublev in the Fourth Round, an impressive achievement considering the amount of times he has been beaten by the Russian already this season. That will inspire Marton Fucsovics, but he will also know he needs to be better if he is going to get his teeth into the World Number 1 who has become the dominant grass court player in the world in recent years.

The problem for Marton Fucsovics is that he may not be able to serve well enough to keep Novak Djokovic at bay- he has been broken at least three times in the three completed matches played this week. In this Quarter Final Fucsovics is taking on one of the strongest return players on the Tour and I do think that can make a difference for him as he builds the pressure on his tennis.

I expect Marton Fucsovics to cause problems for Novak Djokovic with his returning ability and the tennis translates very well on the grass courts, but the World Number 1 is playing at a very strong level. He has been serving so effectively in the tournament so far and I think Novak Djokovic will be able to wear down Marton Fucsovics.

They have met twice before and both times Marton Fucsovics was able to take a set from Novak Djokovic. However, I think the World Number 1 is playing at an extremely high level at the moment and may be too strong in this Quarter Final and especially when noting how much longer Marton Fucsovics has been out on the courts compared with Novak Djokovic.

A big spread is one that Fucsovics can cover at his best, but Novak Djokovic may be playing at a level that will be difficult for the Hungarian to reach and it may result in a fairly one-sided match when all is said and done.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Roger Federer - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 59-45, + 15.56 Units (208 Units Staked, + 7.48% Yield)

Euro 2020 Semi Final Picks 2021 (July 6th-7th)

We are down to the final four at the delayed Euro 2020 Finals and all four teams remaining have been one of the 'hosts' at the tournament.

I do think it has underlined the difficulty for those teams that have travelled from day one of the tournament and it may be something that gives England the edge even if all four Semi Finalists are heading to London after Quarter Final wins littered around Europe.

Hosting both Semi Finals and the Final is huge for England though and many believe 'it's coming home', although I think Italy, Spain and Denmark will all be heading into these remaining ties filled with much belief of their own.

Hopefully we have three fun matches left to watch before the attention will soon turn to the World Cup that begins in less than eighteen months time.

Tuesday 6th July

Italy vs Spain Pick: The last time Italy played at Wembley Stadium they produced their worst performance of the Euro 2020 Finals when narrowly getting past Austria having needed Extra Time to beat the underdog. They were much better in their win over Belgium in Munich, but Roberto Mancini will return to England with his players knowing they can't have another sub-par performance in London if they are going to progress to the Final of Euro 2020.

It has been a remarkable turnaround from Italy who have been courageous going forward but without losing their strong defensive identity. Belgium created chances, but Italy held firm in their Quarter Final win and they are now coming up against a Spain team who have been inconsistent in the final third.

Spain are coming back from St Petersburg where they needed Penalties to see off Switzerland, but it was another match in which loose finishing threatened to cost them. This is a team that has looked good going forward until the final shot/pass and that kind of level is not going to be good enough to beat Italy.

Luis Enrique will know that, but his Spain team are still in the tournament and surpassing most expectations by reaching the Semi Final. They have largely been in control defensively, but Spain make too many mistakes and a high pressing Italy team is likely going to be in a position to turn the ball over and cause massive problems for the Spanish.

If Italy can get Spain chasing the fixture, it could be a match in which the counter attack is hugely effective and I do think Italy are the better team.

However, Spain can play their part in the fixture with their strong attacking approach and I would not be surprised if it is similarly open as the Belgium-Italy Quarter Final was a few days ago.

The longer trip Spain have been on and the emotional match they were a part of may ultimately cost them though and I think Italy will likely win a high-scoring game.

Wednesday 7th July

England vs Denmark Pick: Both England and Denmark would have welcomed being in the weaker half of the Knock Out draw and I think both teams have played well enough in their wins over the last ten days to give themselves a lot of confidence.

England have beaten Germany and Ukraine in the last two Rounds and have yet to concede a goal in the tournament and hosting the Semi Final will surely give them a real advantage through the remainder of the tournament. Earlier on they were being criticised for a lack of goals, but England have scored 6 goals in their Knock Out wins and Harry Kane is back amongst the goals.

Gareth Southgate will be confident, but England are also under some pressure to deliver a first major international tournament since 1966.

That is a far longer wait than Denmark have had who won the 1992 European Championships and looked like real dark horses in this tournament. They have only lost 4 of their last 33 games and 3 of those came against Belgium, while the other to Finland was in extraordinary circumstances after Christian Eriksen's collapse and all of the worry that his team-mates had surrounding that moment.

It might have become a rallying moment for Denmark though and the team have won 3 games in a row while scoring 10 goals in those wins.

This isn't just a fairytale for Denmark though and I think there was a genuine feeling they could have a big tournament before a ball was kicked. A good manager and a team that is greater than the sum of its parts could not be underestimated and Denmark have played really well in the tournament to feel like they can upset the odds here.

They have done it before- it isn't that long ago since Denmark took four points from England in the Nations League, although the win at Wembley Stadium came after the hosts had been reduced to ten and then nine men. Even then it was a tight victory for Denmark and the game in Copenhagen ended goalless which suggests we could see some nervous moments when the teams clash in a much bigger situation in the Euro 2020 Semi Final on Wednesday.

While England deserve their spot as favourites and especially with Denmark travelling to London from Baku after their Quarter Final win, I do think the Danes can make things very difficult. They have the size to cope with the set pieces and Denmark have some real pace and quality in the final third which will make them dangerous.

My feeling is that both managers are going to urge a touch of caution despite the goals each team have been scoring in the Knock Out Rounds and we could see something similar to the two Nations League meetings. A single goal was scored across two matches and even that was through a Penalty and my feeling is that both England and Denmark have played well enough defensively to see at least one clean sheet produced in this Semi Final.

An early goal will change the whole picture, but I think this will be the tighter of the two to be played and backing one, or both, to fail to hit the back of the net is the play.

MY PICKS: Italy-Spain Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)

England-Denmark Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Quarter Final: 2-2, + 0.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 6.25% Yield)

Last 16: 2-6, - 8.30 Units (16 Units Staked, - 51.88% Yield)

Group Stage: 21-15, + 11.96 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.85% Yield)

Match Day 3: 9-3, + 12.40 Units (23 Units Staked, + 53.91% Yield)

Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)

Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2021 (July 6th)

I spent Monday at Wimbledon and the short turnaround from the Fourth Round matches being completed and the Women's Quarter Final matches being played on Tuesday means I have had to wait for the markets to be put together.

I will place my Tennis Picks here for Day 8 at the 2021 tournament, but I should have a fuller thread with reasons for my selections in the Day 9 thread which will cover the Men's Quarter Final matches.

MY PICKS: Viktorija Golubic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 57-43, + 16.54 Units (200 Units Staked, + 8.27% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2021 (July 5th)

The last Middle Sunday that will ever be used at Wimbledon has come and gone and that also means we are set for the last ever Manic Monday, a day that was considered the best day of Grand Slam tennis fans will get to see on the Tour.

The entire Fourth Round is scheduled to be completed on Monday, but from 2022 Wimbledon will join the other Grand Slams in playing every day from the opening day to the Final and that also means the Fourth Round will be split over two days in the years ahead.

As a fan I am massively disappointed, but I do have an opportunity to be at the grounds on Monday and I am looking forward to the drama unfolding all around.

Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Cristian Garin: It was a tougher than expected Third Round match for Novak Djokovic, but I think he partly lost a bit of focus as the crowd got behind his opponent. Ultimately making it through to the second week of Wimbledon and extending his winning run at the tournament to seventeen matches is all that Novak Djokovic will have cared about and it would be a big upset if he is not able to make the Quarter Final yet again.

Despite the slightly tougher match, Novak Djokovic has won nine sets in a row since surprisingly dropping the opener against Jack Draper. He has not spent too long on the courts and Novak Djokovic has been serving really well, while we all know what the World Number 1 is capable of when it comes to the return of serve.

Confidence is not going to be a problem for Novak Djokovic and he is playing a clay court specialist who has made a run at Wimbledon in unexpected fashion.

Cristian Garin has needed five sets, four sets and then four sets to win his matches at Wimbledon and I have to credit the Chilean for taking advantage of a largely kind looking draw. You still have to win your matches though and Garin has to be given credit for that, although I do worry about his overall level and whether he is going to be good enough to keep up with what I am expecting to be a much stronger Novak Djokovic than the one we saw on Friday.

He is returning well enough to at least feel he can have some successes, but Cristian Garin will have some very tough stretches in this match and I do think that is going to see Novak Djokovic take control of the match and take it on.

Their sole previous meeting on the Tour has come on a hard court and it was won comfortably by Novak Djokovic in straight sets. On that day he was able to break in 44% of return games played and I do think the match up is a relatively comfortable one for Novak Djokovic who should not feel under a lot of pressure over the course of this one.

The first couple of sets may be fairly competitive, but from there Novak Djokovic should be able to make comfortable passage to what should be a Quarter Final scheduled to be played on Tuesday. Novak Djokovic has broken at least four times in all three of his matches at Wimbledon and I think he can do slightly better against Cristian Garin which will set him up for the cover of a big mark.

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: It has been a strange time for all, but tennis can throw up these moments where you seem to be running into the same opponent on a regular basis. That is what Marton Fucsovics has to be feeling when noticing he is up against Andrey Rublev for the fifth time in 2021.

The previous matches has seen Marton Fucsovics withdraw before taking the court once, but the other three completed matches have all been won by Andrey Rublev. The worry for the Hungarian is that each of the last three matches have been won a little more comfortably by Andrey Rublev and the match up is one that has not favoured Marton Fucsovics who has only held serve in 69% of service games played and has yet to break the Andrey Rublev serve.

Playing on the grass courts might actually favour Fucsovics more than their previous hard court matches, but Andrey Rublev reached the Final in Halle in the warm up for Wimbledon and he has looked comfortable in his three matches won so far in SW19. The Russian has been serving really well, but the key to his performances has been the amount of breaks of serve he has been producing and this has to be a worry for Marton Fucsovics.

The latter has upset the odds a couple of times already at Wimbledon, but he had not been at his best in the warm up events and I do wonder if there is going to be a real mental obstacle to overcome against an opponent who has dominated their matches in 2021. Playing on the grass will help as I have mentioned, but Marton Fucsovics has been a little up and down on the surface throughout his professional career and I think this will be a tough match for him.

The serve has been working well for Marton Fucsovics so far in this tournament, but I expect Andrey Rublev to really put him under pressure with his returning ability. Having produced at least five breaks of serve in each of his three wins, I think Rublev is likely going to have too much for Marton Fucsovics and will eventually begin to grind down an opponent that he has regularly gotten the better of throughout the season already.

Karen Khachanov-Sebastian Korda over 39.5 games: It has been a solid run through the draw for Karen Khachanov who has previously performed very well on the grass courts, but the last month has been much more difficult for him. With that in mind it has been a surprising run into the second week at Wimbledon, although Karen Khachanov has had a decent draw.

The win over Frances Tiafoe in the Third Round was impressive considering the form of the American, but another level may need to be found by Karen Khachanov if he is going to move past Sebastian Korda.

The young player may not have a lot of grass court experience, but wins over Alex De Minaur and Dan Evans have been impressive and Sebastian Korda comes from a hugely athletic family which suggests he is not going to be intimidated by entering the second week of a Grand Slam tournament. In saying that, the young player will have to be performing at close to his best to have an opportunity to earn another upset in the 2021 Wimbledon tournament and Sebastian Korda has to serve well to get past this opponent after a tight win in the Third Round over Daniel Evans.

In reality neither of these players have really played that well on the grass courts in preparation for Wimbledon and both Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda have overachieved in terms of the expectations they would have had before the tournament began.

There is a similarity in the return numbers, but the edge has to be given to the Russian player who has the stronger serving stats so far at the tournament. Before Wimbledon began, both Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda held 80% of service games they had played on the grass courts, but it is Korda who has had a significant edge in terms of return figures.

Karen Khachanov has the superior performances in this tournament, but he has not played the same kind of opponent as Sebastian Korda. That may be telling with the numbers as similar as they are, but I do think both players will win a set and that can see them well on the way to covering this mark.

With both players perhaps not as strong on the return as they would like and facing a decent serve from the opponent, I think four or five competitive sets will be played out and that should see this match surpass the total games line set for the Fourth Round encounter.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: He might have dropped the first set of his tournament at Wimbledon in the Third Round, but Alexander Zverev has made a very strong start as he puts the first week in the books. The day off on Sunday will have been appreciated, but it isn't one that will have made much of a difference to Alexander Zverev who has made comfortable passage in the draw and in a familiar position of playing every other day in a Grand Slam tournament.

The German has looked comfortable on the grass courts and the previous successes at the other Grand Slam tournaments should give Alexander Zverev confidence in trying to put together his best performance at Wimbledon. The wins in the first three Rounds will only add to the belief for a player that has not always found his most consistent level at this tournament, while the numbers being produced by Alexander Zverev have been largely impressive.

The serve has been a big weapon for Alexander Zverev and it is going to be the key to the outcome of this match. While he struggled at times with his return in the Third Round, Alexander Zverev has created at least nine break points in each match played at Wimbledon and the form will be a slight worry for Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The young Canadian benefited from an injury to Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round in what was shaping up to be a tough match and that means Felix Auger-Aliassime should be feeling pretty healthy for the second week of this Grand Slam. An impressive build up on the grass courts will be something that Felix Auger-Aliassime will look to use to help him against an opponent that has given him plenty of one-sided defeats in previous Tour meetings.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has a serve and an ability to get on the front foot and play aggressive tennis that should be well suited to the grass courts, but there is plenty of room for improvement on the return. He did not start that well against Nick Kyrgios behind the serve and that is something the Canadian has to avoid if he is going to get the better of Alexander Zverev.

I do think the difference in their ability on the return is going to be a key to the match and the head to head reads a comfortable 3-0 in favour of Alexander Zverev. The big German is the more confident player when it comes to getting balls back into play and finding a way to break serve and I do think it is going to be important to the outcome of this Fourth Round match.

Alexander Zverev has won all three previous Tour matches between these players, although they have not met since October 2020 on a hard court. However, it is difficult to ignore the fact that Zverev has held 88% of the service games played against Felix Auger-Aliassime compared with the 46% mark held by the latter in those head to head matches.

All six sets have been won by Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime has not won more than four games in any of those sets completed. While the grass courts should make the Canadian more effective, I still believe Alexander Zverev is playing the better tennis and his return can be a difference maker in this Fourth Round match as he moves through in three or four sets and covers this mark.

Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Getting through the first week at Wimbledon and then having Middle Sunday to reset has become part of the annual tradition for Roger Federer, although recent years have become more difficult with injury. That meant he headed into the 2021 Wimbledon tournament with a different feeling and a difficult opening match saw Roger Federer barely move through to the Second Round.

He has looked a lot better in the last two Rounds and Roger Federer will have picked up some vital confidence ahead of the second week when the big matches come very quickly. The performances in the last two matches have also been encouraging to see Roger Federer returning to something like his best and he is a deserved favourite to beat Lorenzo Sonego even if the Italian has been on good form on the grass.

Over the last month Lorenzo Sonego has reached the Final at Eastbourne before losing a tight match to Alex De Minaur, while the Italian has dropped a single set in his three matches at Wimbledon. The serve has been a very big weapon for Sonego and it could be a difference maker for him in this Fourth Round match, although the big test for him will be to try and get more out of the serve and especially against a Champion who is very strong on this surface.

The returning numbers have declined in each of the three matches Lorenzo Sonego has played at Wimbledon, and that has been backed up by the fact he has created fewer break points in each of the three matches as he has progressed through the draw.

Now he will have to deal with Roger Federer's serve which has been key in keeping Richard Gasquet and Cameron Norrie at bay in the last two matches. It looks a challenge for Lorenzo Sonego, but he is going up against a Federer who has yet to really get his return game going to the level he will need to win the title here for the ninth time.

Roger Federer has done enough to secure the last two wins while dropping a single set and this is a match in which it feels like Lorenzo Sonego needs to start quickly. Over the years Roger Federer has found a way to blunt the big serve of opponents and then break them down in the rallies and I do think he will make his move in each of the sets played to get past Lorenzo Sonego.

He can build the pressure on Lorenzo Sonego with his own serve and I think Roger Federer will create the majority of the break points in this match. The former Wimbledon Champion will likely be looking to be more efficient with his break opportunities having struggled to finish off Cameron Norrie and being forced into a fourth set, but Roger Federer is improving his form and I think he can cover this number in a victory.

Karolina Pliskova v Liudmila Samsonova: There is a big opportunity in front of both Karolina Pliskova and Luidmila Samsonova when they meet in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and an open tournament could see either player in a position to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

After a difficult year, Karolina Pliskova has built some momentum by winning each match at this tournament in straight sets and she has rarely been pushed in the last two Rounds. This comes after a tough 2021 season and after losing both pre-Wimbledon grass court matches which suggested Karolina Pliskova was going to be entering another Grand Slam during which she would end up coming up short.

The wins earned will have boosted the confidence and Karolina Pliskova has previously shown enough form on the grass courts to suggest she can go very deep into this tournament. New Grand Slam Champions have become the norm in the Women's side of things over the last few years, but Karolina Pliskova will have to deal with the pressure of knowing her own window is closing and there may not be a better opportunity in front of her.

Time is something that Luidmila Samsonova seems to have on her side and the World Number 65 has won three matches here to put her on course to enter a new career best World Ranking at the end of this tournament. The 22 year old came through the Qualifiers to win a grass court tournament in Berlin and she has backed that up to win three matches in the draw at Wimbledon to build the confidence that will make Luidmila Samsonova very dangerous.

Luidmila Samsonova won each of her last two two matches in three sets though and the numbers suggest the matches are getting much more difficult for the Russian youngster. She has been returning very well at Wimbledon, but Samsonova has begun to see her own serve being attacked as the quality of opponent improves and I think that will be the case here.

She may also not have as much success dealing with the Karolina Pliskova serve which has been a potent weapon for the former World Number 1.

My one worry with Karolina Pliskova is that she has routinely failed to really produce her best at Grand Slam level when the pressure intensifies, but she has only dropped serve twice in her first three matches. Add in the strong returning performances produced by the Czech player and I do think her level has been consistently strong at Wimbledon and that should see Karolina Pliskova move into a position to win this match.

I would not be surprised if this one ends in three sets like the last two Luidmila Samsonova matches at SW19, but this time I think Karolina Pliskova will have enough through the serve to earn some cheaper points. That can be key when the pressure is ramped up and I think Karolina Pliskova will move through to the Quarter Final here with a good looking win to keep the momentum behind her.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov-Sebastian Korda Over 39.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini-Ilya Ivashka Over 33.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz-Daniil Medvedev Over 34.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Viktorija Golubic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 49-38, + 12.76 Units (174 Units Staked, + 7.34% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 6 Picks 2021 (July 3rd)

Day 6 of Wimbledon sees the Fourth Round and second week of the tournament finalised, although it could be a much better day all in all.

Hopefully the Tennis is completed and we will get the final Manic Monday at this Grand Slam in a couple of days time, although it is all weather permitting.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Nick Krygios over 41.5 games: There has been very little tennis played by Nick Kyrgios over the last sixteen months and it has been a long time since he left Australia to compete, but there has been an element of freedom about his performances so far. I do think Nick Kyrgios arrived in London with very little expectation, but he has a big game that is well suited to the grass courts and that has made him dangerous.

He needed five sets to get past Ugo Humbert in the First Round, but things were much simpler for Nick Kyrgios in the Second Round and that should mean he has plenty left in the tank. At the Australian Open Kyrgios reached the Third Round and blew a 2-0 lead in sets over Dominic Thiem before exiting the tournament and I think this is a very dangerous match for Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The serve is a massive weapon for Nick Kyrgios and I think that is something that will always give him a chance in matches on the grass courts. He has won big matches at Wimbledon and I do think Nick Kyrgios will love to perform in front of the relatively big crowds back on the showcase courts in this Third Round match as he looks to make the second week at Wimbledon once again.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is anything but a pushover though and he has reached the Final in Stuttgart and the Semi Final in Halle which underlines his own ability on the grass. Like his opponent, Felix Auger-Aliassime has a very big serve from which he can build his entire tennis on this surface and it has been key to his runs before Wimbledon having beaten Roger Federer and held 92% of the service games he has played.

Even in this tournament, Felix Auger-Aliassime has dropped a single set and there will be further confidence from the fact he has beaten Nick Kyrgios on a grass court before. That came at Queens Club in 2019, but it was a tight, serve dominated match with a single break from two break points secured by the Canadian over three sets and I can see tie-breakers being very important in this Third Round match too.

Neither player is the most consistent returner on the Tour and those numbers are even tougher for them on the grass courts when the serve is such a big weapon for so many on the Tour. With Nick Kyrgios and Felix Auger-Aliassime going up to the line, I am anticipating a lot of quick service games and long sets in terms of games rather than time spent on the court.

They produced 41 games in three sets when meeting at Queens Club two years ago and I think this match will go over this total games line as long as both are able to win at one set each. One concern is that Felix Auger-Aliassime seems to lose heart in losses at Grand Slams and can fall away, but his serve and performances on the grass over the last month should keep him focused while an entertainer like Nick Kyrgios is unlikely to go away quietly in a match like this one.

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Twice before has Alexander Zverev reached the Final of the grass court tournament in Halle, but he has yet to really have the kind of impact at Wimbledon as he would have wanted. A surprising First Round loss two years ago would have hurt, but since then Alexander Zverev has begun to produce much stronger results at the Grand Slam level and his early wins here suggests he is feeling pretty good about where his tennis is at this moment in time.

Comfortable wins without dropping a set is exactly what the doctor would have ordered for Alexander Zverev who can be guilty of making life very difficult early in the Grand Slams and thus having little left to give at the business end of those Slams. With that in mind his early wins here will be welcomed and Alexander Zverev is someone who has the game that should translate very well on the surface.

While his path to the Third Round has been comfortable, Taylor Fritz has been made to work hard having already played nine sets in his two wins in the Wimbledon tournament. The American needed five sets to get past compatriot Steve Johnson in the Second Round, but a big first serve can make Taylor Fritz dangerous.

Two years ago he won a title on the grass courts of Eastbourne to suggest that Taylor Fritz can be effective on this surface, although it is the first time that Fritz has made it through to the Third Round at Wimbledon.

The key to the match for Taylor Fritz is making sure he serves well and at least tries to put Alexander Zverev under pressure, especially as the latter has had one or two problems getting to grips with the return of serve on the grass. That may be the case, but Alexander Zverev will think the same of the Fritz return of serve and his first two performances at Wimbledon will be hugely encouraging for the higher Seeded player.

It is not the first time these two have met at Wimbledon- the first time was in 2018 when Alexander Zverev had to come from 2-1 down in sets to win in five sets in the Second Round. The Zverev return proved to be effective on the day with five breaks of serve compared to a single one for Taylor Fritz and the last two sets were fairly routine for Zverev.

Both players have improved since then, but I do think Alexander Zverev is likely to have the better of the match with his stronger ability on the return perhaps making the difference. Potential fatigue could also be a factor going against Taylor Fritz in this Third Round match and Alexander Zverev can cover a similar number he managed to do against Tennys Sandgren in the Second Round.

Roger Federer - 1.5 sets v Cameron Norrie: You can always see the signs of an improving player and Cameron Norrie certainly fits the bill with a strong year behind him and numbers backing up some of the successes he has had. A surprising campaign on the clay courts was rewarded with a match against Rafael Nadal at the French Open and now Cameron Norrie gets an opportunity to face Roger Federer on the grass courts of Wimbledon.

Before this season, Cameron Norrie had shown very little appetite for the grass courts, but he came into this portion of the Tour in good form and backed that up by reaching the Queens Final last month. His two wins in the main draw at Wimbledon have been impressive with Cameron Norrie dropping a single set to Lucas Pouille and Alex Bolt and I do think the lefty will believe he can win this match.

Belief is very important for players when they take on the legends of the Tour that are still playing at a high level, and especially when those said legends are perhaps not in top form. That is the case for Roger Federer despite his straight sets win in the Second Round against Richard Gasquet and the Swiss superstar knows he has to find another level to have a prolonged stay in this tournament.

Much of this Third Round match is going to depend on the Roger Federer serve and whether he can use that shot to build pressure on a less experienced player. Before the tournament begun, Federer did hold 88% of the service games played on the grass, but the eight time Wimbledon Champion is some way below his usual percentage of points won behind the serve and this is going to be a key for him.

He is facing an opponent in Cameron Norrie who can be a little inconsistent on the return, although one that is coming off an impressive straight sets win over Alex Bolt. The performance on the return was very good in the Second Round, but Norrie has struggled to really impose himself on this part of his game and that will be encouragement for Roger Federer fans.

It is the Cameron Norrie serve that has been highly effective on the grass over the last month and the numbers are a considerable improvement on previous years. The British player will receive plenty of support on Centre Court on Day 6 at the tournament and he does have two wins over top 25 Ranked opponents on the grass already this season, but this is a tough mental obstacle to overcome when facing someone with the history Roger Federer has.

I am expecting Cameron Norrie to play his part and I think he is playing well enough to challenge Roger Federer, but doing so for three hours on Centre Court may be too much to ask of him at this stage of his career. I do see a developing player that looks to be improving on all surfaces, but Federer may end up having a bit too much know-how and experience at key moments in the match and can work his way to a three or, more likely, four set win.

Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Marin Cilic: A former Wimbledon Finalist takes on an opponent who has an affinity for the grass courts and who will arguably be the favourite to reach the Wimbledon Final from the bottom half of the Men's draw. The veteran is Marin Cilic, but the higher Seeded younger man is Daniil Medvedev in what looks like being a really good match for the fans lucky enough to see it live.

Both players have had a single dip in their two wins so far this week, but for the main part Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev have looked very comfortable in the tournament and on this surface. While it may not be everyone's cup of tea, the grass courts suit both games of these two tennis players and I think that does make it more intriguing.

Marin Cilic is not the player he once was and the former Grand Slam Champion has had an inconsistent year with his numbers declining from his peak. That is most noticeable on the return of serve, but Cilic does come into the Wimbledon tournament having won the title in Stuttgart and followed that up with a decent run at Queens Club.

The Croatian has produced some eye-catching numbers in his wins on the grass so far this season and the return of serve has been more effective than we have seen for some time.

However, he is going to be facing a confident player in Daniil Medvedev who has dropped a single set in the tournament and who won the title in Mallorca. The Russian has made it clear that he has always been a big fan of playing on the grass and a powerful serve is going to be important for Daniil Medvedev to try and keep Marin Cilic at bay.

I think he is capable of doing that, while Daniil Medvedev has been far more effective on the return of serve than Marin Cilic over the last month even though both have produced some very positive results. Where Marin Cilic has broken in 20% of return games on the grass and won 39% of the points played on the return, Daniil Medvedev has broken in 32% of the return games played and won 42% of the return points played.

My expectation is that difference in quality and efficiency on the return will eventually prove to be the key to the outcome of a good looking Third Round match. Both players have a strong serve that will give them confidence to compete, but Daniil Mevdevev is more capable of finding a couple of big returns to get into rallies and break down the veteran Marin Cilic and I think that is the way the match will end up in his favour.

Their sole previous match came on a hard court in Washington in 2019 and it was won by Daniil Medvedev in a tight encounter where break points were hard to find. Ultimately the Russian found the break he needed and did not offer out a single break point to Marin Cilic and I think Daniil Medvedev will find the two or three breaks of serve needed to secure the win and the cover of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Nick Kyrgios Over 41.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Roger Federer - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini-Aljaz Bedene Over 35.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Anastasija Sevastova @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kaja Juvan + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 42-32, + 12.22 Units (148 Units Staked, + 8.26% Yield)