Boxing Picks 2019-Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz 2 (November 23rd)

I have been largely disappointed with my Boxing Picks in 2019, but it just goes to show it can be a difficult sport to produce a positive return from- there is no point predicting a fighter to win at 1.10 because I am not sure how much profit you are going to end up with when backing such a strong favourite.

It is certainly that much more difficult when you think of the amount of upsets we have seen in Boxing in 2019 and there is a real chance that we are going to see one or two more before the calendar year comes to a close.


On Saturday night we have a big night of Boxing as Callum Smith returns to the ring, while Deontay Wilder completes what we all hope will be the first of two big rematches to take place over the next several months.

I am looking for a strong weekend to get things moving back in a positive direction after the tough few months for the Picks.

Craig Glover vs Chris Billam-Smith

The chief support in Liverpool this evening is a Commonwealth Title bout in the Cruiserweight Division and there is no doubt that Craig Glover is going to have the majority of the support inside the Arena.

Tony Bellew manages Glover, and the Liverpudlian is back in a position to fight for a big Title just months after a shocking defeat in this very Arena.

An early stoppage will have raised some eyebrows and I think Glover is going to be tested very quickly by Chris Billam-Smith who impressed in a narrow defeat to Richard Riakporhe in July. You don't always know how a fighter will respond to a defeat, but Billam-Smith has to believe that his power is going to be enough to rattle the home fighter in this one.

Craig Glover does have some pop himself, but I am not sure he has fought at this level and I would fancy Billam-Smith to have a bit too much for him. At some point we are going to see the chin being tested and I just think Billam-Smith is a step above here.

The home fighter has plenty of pop himself and it could be a very fun fight to enjoy, but I will look for the favoured fighter to find the stoppage at some point in the Twelve Rounds to be competed.

Callum Smith vs John Ryder

For me Callum Smith is the Number 1 Super Middleweight in the World, but I also think this is a fighter that can't really stay in this Division for too much longer.

Ultimately Smith is chasing some big names to take on with a suspected date in 2020 where he will be headlining Anfield. The problem is that the majority of those are in and around 168 and I am not sure Smith will want to take on one of the top Light Heavyweights in that fight.

Instead you can make an easy case for taking on Chris Eubank Jr or having a Unification with Billy Joe Saunders, although any chance of tempting Canelo to Liverpool looks a long-shot to say the least.

None of that will matter if Smith can't handle the fight in front of him on Saturday when he takes on John Ryder who has won four in a row since losing on a Split Decision to Rocky Fielding. All credit has to be given to The Gorilla for forcing himself into this position to have a crack at the top fighter in his Division, but all of the attributes look to be in favour of the Champion and I can't see anything but an impressive Callum Smith win.

John Ryder has only been stopped once before, but Smith is a very big puncher and could break the heart and spirit before forcing a Stoppage. There are quite a few who believe this could be a very early night for Smith like it was when he crushed Fielding, but I think Ryder will show some resilience before being put away.

Having a small interest in Smith to win this at some point in the middle Rounds looks the call here and I imagine he will then mention the biggest fighters around his weight Division for a fight at Anfield next year.

Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz

Eighteen months ago Deontay Wilder and Luis Ortiz were involved in one of the best Heavyweight fights in recent years, but it is hard to imagine the rematch reaching that kind of level.

Now the Cuban is that much older and he has not looked like he has recovered his punch resistance since facing Wilder for the first time. I have to credit the shape in which Ortiz has gotten into at the 40 years old he is stated to be (most think Ortiz is older than that), but we can't ignore the fact that Wilder should be stronger having struggled with flu ahead of the first fight.

Deontay Wilder will know he has the power edge in this one and I was of the opinion that this would be a win for the American in fewer Rounds that were needed to win the first time around. I do think he will be a little careful early, but I don't think Wilder is someone who wants to warm into fights and he will look to detonate the big right hand whenever he gets a chance to do that.

This time I think we will see Wilder find the mark around the same time he did in the first fight, but the difference will be that the WBC Champion will not allow Ortiz off the hook. In that initial bout Wilder put Ortiz down in the Fifth Round and I think the play here has to be backing Deontay Wilder to win anywhere between the Fifth and Eighth Round.

There have been some who think this could be another Dominic Breazeale moment, but I think Ortiz will be respected for the first couple of Rounds by Wilder. I do think Wilder will then start motoring through the gears and he can push ahead and find the winning shots at some point through the middle of this Championship Bout as Ortiz perhaps loses his gas tank a bit earlier than eighteen months ago.

MY PICKS: Chris Billam-Smith to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Callum Smith to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.20 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Deontay Wilder to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing Picks 2019: 22-46, - 1.39 Units (105 Units Staked, - 1.32% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (November 23-25)

The last international break of the 2019 calendar year has come and gone and we have been given the twenty nations that will definitely be playing at the next European Championships which begin in June 2020.

Before this month comes to a close the draw for the Finals will be made and that will be of huge interest to fans of England and Wales. Before that the Play Off draw is also made as the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland look to make the most of the reprieves they have been given after failing to finish in the top two of their respective Qualifying Groups.


Having a major international tournament coming up in the summer is obviously going to be exciting, but that is for another day for most players. The focus now will be getting ready to enter what is always a very hectic part of the English Football calendar as most Premier League teams will be ready to play nine games in the top flight before the FA Cup Third Round over the first weekend of January.

During that time the top teams will have two more European Champions League/Europa League Group games to negotiate as well as the Quarter Final of the League Cup. Watch out for rotations and injuries becoming a major factor at this time of the season with teams looking to make sure they don't lose any momentum in a period where matches are played every few days.

That is difficult for the managers to negotiate and also for all the Fantasy Football players that will be looking to make some hay during this time of the season. I would definitely keep an eye on deadlines for transfers with limited time between games to pick up information and it is going to be a tough time for all.


In this thread you will see my Picks from the latest round of fixtures and I will then move onto GW13 and my Fantasy thoughts out of the international break.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Things can change very quickly in football and proof of that came in North London this past week as Jose Mourinho takes over from Mauricio Pochettino as manager of Tottenham Hotspur.

Within the space of twelve hours Tottenham Hotspur made the decisions that have taken over all of the headlines in England. Whether this is the correct decision will be seen in the months and years ahead, but Tottenham Hotspur have an underachieving squad that should quickly pick up under new guidance.

A toxic environment seems to have been partly the reason for Pochettino to be moved on months after reaching the Champions League Final. We saw at Manchester United last December that teams can quickly turn their form around when the manager has been replaced and I think we could see that with Tottenham Hotspur too.

Winning in East London won't be easy, but West Ham United have been in miserable form and this looks as good an opportunity for Tottenham Hotspur to snap their poor away run as they could have hoped for. Spurs have won on their last three visits to the London Stadium and this is a team who have the goals within the squad to hurt a West Ham United team who are defending poorly.

West Ham United might feel they can create chances of their own considering the performances of Tottenham Hotspur away from home, but I think the new voice is going to get off to a positive start.

Jose Mourinho suffered an embarrassing loss when he took Manchester United to the London Stadium last season, but I think this squad is capable of turning around their form very quickly. The price has shrunk for an away win as soon as the news came out about the Mauricio Pochettino sacking, but I think Tottenham Hotspur can be backed.

At odds against you can back Spurs to win a game featuring at least two goals and I think that is a good price considering I feel the away team will need at least two goals to win here.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: On the face of things you can understand why Arsenal are such favourites to beat Southampton on Saturday, but it is not easy to trust the home team on their current form.

No wins in 5 games in all competitions have just increased the pressure on Unai Emery as manager of the club, while Arsenal have found it difficult to blow teams away even at home.

Back to back teams have visited the Emirates Stadium and come away with a point so there will be some belief in the Southampton squad. However they have also been having some difficulties in finding positive results despite being a competitive team outside of the stunning 0-9 defeat to Leicester City.

Ralph Hasenhuttl is another manager feeling the pressure at the moment, but his team have been more competitive away from home. They had the lead at Manchester City in the Premier League earlier this month and have scored in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea in the League this season.

The Saints can definitely play their part here, but Arsenal should have too much for them when it is all said and done. I can't really back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap on their current form, but they can win a game featuring two or more goals and that is the selection here.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: If there is one team in the Premier League I have yet to really get to grips with it is Wolves and that is largely down to the fact that the team doesn't score a lot of goals, but also doesn't concede a lot either.

For the majority of the season that has meant me moving past their games even though Wolves secured a winner when earning a draw at Arsenal earlier this month.

This is a difficult looking game out of the international break, although I do think Bournemouth have been dented by the injury suffered by Josh King. A team who have not been as free-flowing in the final third as in recent years can ill-afford another attacking absentee, but Bournemouth have to be respected for the strength they have shown defensively this season.

It makes this a tough game to really have a good feel for and I think there are better options out there.


Brighton v Leicester City Pick: I had little doubt that Brendan Rodgers could guide Leicester City to the best of the rest position outside of the top six at the beginning of the season, but even I have to be surprised by how much they have pushed on. This was a team I felt were a dark horse for a top four spot when you think of the issues the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea had coming into the season, but Leicester City have been stronger than anyone could have really believed.

They are big favourites to keep their positive run going when travelling to Brighton on Saturday and I am sure there will be plenty ready to back The Foxes here.

However I am a little cautious because Brighton have been very good at home under Graham Potter. They won't be afraid to attack Leicester City and can also hurt them on the counter attack too and I think this could be a close match.

Aaron Connelly's injury is a blow for the home team, but Leicester City are a team grabbing the headlines which makes them plenty short in the market. They may well win here and keep the momentum going, but I have to give this one a watching brief.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: Over the next few weeks Liverpool could really take a firm grip on the Premier League title race as they manage a good looking fixture list at a time when Manchester City have to play the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal.

Jurgen Klopp doesn't need to worry about what other clubs are doing if his Liverpool team keep winning and they should be good enough to see off a Crystal Palace team who have struggled in recent weeks.

Those struggles have come at a time when Crystal Palace have faced a number of teams inside the top six and the back to back losses to Manchester City and Leicester City at home shows the kind of ceiling this team have.

If Wilfried Zaha is not fit to play then it makes things all the more difficult for Crystal Palace and that is even accounting for the fact that Mohamed Salah may not be available.

At this stage of the season I do think we already have a clear favourite for the Premier League title and Liverpool have continued to find big results through difficult times. They have goals in the side and Crystal Palace struggle in the final third which should mean a sixth straight win for The Reds at Selhurst Park.

Backing Liverpool to cover the Asian Handicap is difficult because this is a team who seem to do just enough to secure the points on their travels. Only one of their five away Premier League wins have come by more than a single goal margin and that is going to be needed to win on the Asian Handicap.

Instead backing Liverpool to win a game featuring two or more goals looks the best angle in this Premier League game.


Everton v Norwich City Pick: Earlier this month I mentioned that Brighton looked very short to beat Norwich City in the Premier League, but they were comfortable winners and it seems more and more likely that the latter are simply not up to the standards of the Premier League.

That could change with some huge investment in January, but Norwich City have to make sure they are still in touch with the teams above them at that time.

We have the busy festive period coming up first and Norwich City have looked short of the quality needed at both ends of the field. They have particularly struggled away from home and all 5 losses have come by at least two goal margins.

Everton can match those results as they have proven to be a much better team at home than on their travels. The win at Southampton should be a boost in confidence the players might need and Everton should have the majority of the play in this one.

I do sometimes worry about the ability of a team like Everton to break down a side they should be beating. They also don't have the best record against Norwich City in recent years, but I can't ignore how poorly Norwich City have been defending and I think that shows up here.

Backing Everton to win and cover the Asian Handicap is my pick.


Watford v Burnley Pick: A win over Norwich City will have given Watford Football Club a big lift, but the international break could not have come at a worse time.

They are favoured to beat Burnley this weekend, but I don't really want to oppose Sean Dyche's men who have made it a habit to surprise in fixtures like this one.

Both teams scoring would not be a big surprise, but the fixture is one that will turn on the first goal and I am not prepared to guess which may that goes. I can make a case for all three results in this fixture, although with a gun to my head I would likely pick a 1-1 draw.

Luckily for me I am not being forced to put any units down on this one and so I will move onto the late Saturday kick off.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The headlines this Premier League weekend might be all about the return of Jose Mourinho, but Manchester City versus Chelsea is the big game in this round of fixtures.

Manchester City are looking to bounce back from the 3-1 loss at Anfield which leaves them 9 points off the leaders, but this is a club who have responded to setbacks under Pep Guardiola. The manager will know his team need a long winning run to see if they can at least pressurise Liverpool into mistakes and Manchester City have been very strong at home.

Wolves won here though and Chelsea won't be intimidated by the task in hand with their young players seemingly thriving when playing away from home. The Blues have won 7 away games in a row including twice in the Champions League and Frank Lampard won't want to shift too far from his principles to make sure Chelsea threaten Manchester City way more than they did under Antonio Conte or Maurizio Sarri.

Last season Chelsea were hammered 6-0 here, but Lampard's team have been scoring goals for fun away from Stamford Bridge.

They will feel they can hurt a Manchester City who have looked vulnerable at the back ever since Aymeric Laporte went down with an injury and they have to be respected. However I think it is difficult to ignore the fact that Chelsea have lost twice to Manchester United, once to Liverpool and drawn with Leicester City so far this season.

Even 5th placed Sheffield United earned a draw with Chelsea and I do think Frank Lampard's team have struggled against the top teams. Chelsea did win at Ajax, but The Blues were 1-4 down at home before their hosts were reduced to nine men and I think Manchester City will prove to be too strong on the day.

Backing Manchester City to win the game and cover the Handicap in a high-scoring game looks to be the play here.


Sheffield United v Manchester United Pick: There is one Premier League game being played on Super Sunday this week and it looks an intriguing one between Sheffield United and Manchester United.

On the face of things you would likely expect a low-scoring, tough to read match and in all honesty Sheffield United look a very big price to win the game when you think of how they have played this season.

Sheffield United have beaten Arsenal here already, while Liverpool needed some luck to win thanks to a mistake from Dean Henderson. The goalkeeper has largely been effective for Sheffield United though and his absence this weekend is a blow for Chris Wilder who has a preferred eleven in his thoughts.

That absence could make Sheffield United a little more vulnerable to the Manchester United attack which has come to life in recent games. After struggling for goals, the return of Anthony Martial has just sparked things for Manchester United and they have now scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions.

Chances are being created too and I do think the front three of Martial, Marcus Rashford and Daniel James can cause problems here.

In saying that I also think Sheffield United will be effective going forward thanks to the style employed by Chris Wilder. They don't score a lot of goals, but Sheffield United do create chances too and I think the layers might be underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals shared out this Sunday.

Goals might not have been flowing at Bramall Lane, but I think that could potentially change if teams continue to create chances at both ends like we have seen. Better finishing will see different results from what we have seen so far this season and I think that could potentially begin this weekend.

At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks to be the play.


Aston Villa v Newcastle United Pick: The final match of the Premier League weekend comes from Villa Park as Aston Villa host Newcastle United in a big game for both clubs.

Dean Smith and Steve Bruce will recognise the importance of picking up points from fixtures like this one for Aston Villa and Newcastle United respectively in the fight to avoid the drop.

Both teams were playing well enough prior to the international break to think this could be a good game of football for the neutrals to enjoy. Aston Villa have proven to be strong at home, but Newcastle United have just found an identity to produce goals and I can see the two teams scoring in this one.

Much of that is down to Aston Villa being a solid attacking team, but one that has allowed too many chances throughout the course of the season. It should mean Newcastle United can be in a position to work some good openings in this match, but holding out against Aston Villa won't be easy for a team who have lost 66% of their away games played this season.

Aston Villa look like a team that will be involved in some higher scoring games throughout the season with their current approach. However they will believe they can win plenty of games if they perform as they have been and I give them a narrow edge in this one.

My bigger feeling is that this game will feature at least three goals shared out though and that is the approach I am going to have to this fixture. At close to odds against quotes I believe backing goals is the best way forward in this fixture.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Unit)
Aston Villa-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November 2019/20: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 13

The last international break of the 2019 calendar year is now behind us and there are plenty of Fantasy Football decisions to be made in the coming days and weeks.

Remember this is the time of the year when games come thick and fast which means multiple GameWeeks are also scheduled to be played. It does mean you should be looking to make some long-term decisions (those that will take you through until the change of the calendar year), while I would also make sure you are happy with your bench option at a time when rotations are going to be made by the managers.

I picked up 68 points in GameWeek 12 which is a decent enough return and above the average of the week. My Captain also put in a good effort too, but you can read the changes I have been forced to make to my team in GW13 when you read further below.

Before that I have a few thoughts about teams that seem to be in vogue at the moment and those that might be ready to have us join a potential bandwagon.

Leicester City- fantasy players have been falling over themselves to bring in Leicester City squad members into their teams thanks to a 4 game winning run.

Many of their assets have increased in value and I don't think you can be put off by what looks a generous fixture list over the next four GWs.

I have two players, but I still believe it is not worth adding a third. Jamie Vardy is in great form, but I continue to look past him as some of the underlying stats are simply not making great reading. He is someone who can over-perform expectations, but I do think all the value is gone and going with a midfielder and a defender is good enough.

James Maddison is still the midfielder I would target if I was playing from scratch, although I am happy enough with Youri Tielemans.

Arsenal- Unai Emery's uncertain position as manager does make it hard to really trust Arsenal assets, but I do think this is a good time for them to make some hay.

The fixture list looks very kind in the weeks ahead and I really like Alexandre Lacazette at a price which is below Roberto Firmino and Jamie Vardy's in the FPL game. He is usually the main centre forward when getting a start for Arsenal and the shot count underlines that.

Injuries do leave him more open to rotation which is a concern, but I think Lacazette will enjoy games against Southampton, Norwich City, Brighton and West Ham United.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is another choice, but he is largely played out on the left when Lacazette plays, while I would have a second look at Nicolas Pepe too.

Tottenham Hotspur- I doubt this has gotten past anyone, but Jose Mourinho is back in the Premier League and takes over a Tottenham Hotspur team who have been underperforming to say the least.

It is going to be interesting to see how Tottenham Hotspur line up under Mourinho, but I would expect to see an improvement defensively so those assets could be worth bringing back.

Harry Kane had been playing deeper than we have become accustomed to under Mauricio Pochettino, but he is another I fully expect to be back in a more standard Number 9 spot and this is a team I am keeping a close eye on. After the Manchester United game in early December I think I will be using some Spurs players with a more manageable fixture list to come.

Crystal Palace- I know they have been in poor form, but don't ignore the fixture list Crystal Palace have been involved in.

They finish up their run of matches against top six clubs this weekend and this is a club that looks to have a generous run until January after that.

Jordan Ayew, Wilfried Zaha and a couple of defenders have to be on the potential shortlist to bring into the squad.

My GameWeek 13 Team

Injuries have just been getting the better of my Fantasy team in recent weeks and that forced me into making the change from Ederson to David De Gea two weeks ago.

The international break wasn't very kind to my team with doubts about Andrew Robertson and both Callum Hudson-Odoi and Josh King also suffering.

I really don't want to take a hit right now and so I have to try and manage what transfers I can make and that means going into GW13 with a potential of being short of a starting XI.

There had to be at least one transfer used this week to try and avoid that fate, but I have a clear plan in place and that means I am not going to be too rush right now.

David De Gea- Manchester United seemingly concede whenever put under any kind of pressure, but the goalkeeper remains in place.

Andrew Robertson- another team without as many clean sheets as I would have imagined at this stage of the season. Robertson still provides an attacking threat and may be able to shake off an ankle injury in time for this one.

Benjamin Mendy- he was surprisingly a healthy scratch against Liverpool, but Manchester City's defensive performance was far from ideal. The Frenchman could be back in the starting line up this week.

Caglar Soyuncu- Brighton away is far from easy, but Leicester City have three clean sheets in a row.

John Lundstram- I think the game against Manchester United might be more eventful than what the layers believe. Using Lundstram means having a midfielder rather than the designated defender he is.

Anthony Martial- the Manchester United Number 9 has sparked a return to scoring goals for the club.

Sadio Mane- in the form Mane is in, you can't afford to be without him.

Raheem Sterling (C)- it wasn't the best international break for Sterling having got into it with Joe Gomez which led to a one game suspension. Should mean the England winger is fresh enough for this one and I am going to Captain him in what could be a high-scoring game against Chelsea.

Youri Tielemans- a tough game at Brighton, but Tielemans with every chance of an assist or a goal.

Andreas Pereira- this will surprise many, including those who I speak to about Manchester United on a regular basis, but Andreas Pereira is going to be starting more often than not while Paul Pogba is out.

In the position he is being asked to play, Pereira is set for potential returns in goals and assists even if he is not the long-term answer for United fans. With the games coming up, he looks a no brainer for me and being a lot cheaper than Callum Hudson-Odoi.

Tammy Abraham- Chelsea should head to the Etihad Stadium with more ambition than the last two managers. With the home team looking vulnerable defensively, I don't mind playing Abraham (although I don't have a lot of choices).

Bench- Michael McGovern, Fiyaki Tomori (playing at Manchester City, but also my only fit sub), Josh King (injured), Xande Silva (injured).

College Football Week 13 Picks 2019 (November 23rd)

There might not have been any change in the College Football Rankings after Week 12, but make no mistake there has been a seismic shift in how teams are going to be looked at.

The major news is clearly the injury suffered by Tua Tagovailoa which is going to keep him out for the rest of the season and possibly as far as the opening of the 2020 season whether that is in the NFL or a return to College Football. It was a major injury that will have just dented the chances of the Alabama Crimson Tide to crack into the top four places and earn a College Football PlayOff spot, especially without being able to prove how strong they can be as they are set to miss the SEC Championship Game too.

The Crimson Tide are effectively on a Bye this week with a very easy game scheduled, but the Iron Bowl on Thanksgiving Weekend will be a real test for them. If they win big then perhaps they can still earn a College Football PlayOff spot, but Alabama will need a lot to go their way in the remaining three weeks of the season.


You have to feel for Tagovailoa who suffered an injury that had some believing he might never be able to play Football again. This was a player that was set for some decent money as a top three/four Pick in the NFL Draft and the injury once again highlights the complete nonsense of the NCAA not allowing College players to cash in when they can.

Football is a game where nothing is promised to you tomorrow so it feels wrong that players put their bodies on the line in College Football without any reward. And if you do suffer a career impacting injury then there really is nowhere to go and that seems wrong.

I would not be surprised if more players go the Nick Bosa route going forward in sitting out College Football years once they know they are going to be a top Pick in the NFL. Tua is likely going to have lost millions with the chances his Draft position drops so if you're Trevor Lawrence do you consider dropping out of the 2020 College Football season and preparing for the NFL instead?

If Lawrence wins back to back National Championships I don't think he will be anything but the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft in 2021 regardless of next season so why risk an injury like Tagovailoa? If it happens we might finally see the NCAA dig into their deep pockets which have been filled by top College players over the years and maybe they will then offer some of that cash back to the players that deserve it.


Week 12 proved to be the third winning week in a row for the College Football Picks and it also means being back in a positive position for the season. As I said last week, I want to round out the regular season and Championship Week with winning records too in order to have some momentum going into the Bowl Games and that remains the ambition.

You can see the selections for Week 13 below with all coming from the games scheduled for Saturday.


UCF Knights @ Tulane Green Wave Pick: The UCF Knights have dominated the American Athletic Conference in the last couple of seasons with back to back unbeaten Conference records as well as two Championships secured. At the end of 2018 they had won twenty-five games in a row before losing a Bowl Game to the LSU Tigers, but the 2019 season has been more difficult and the Knights are not going to win a third Conference Championship in a row.

They have already secured a Bowl appearance for a fourth season in a row and now get ready to take on the Tulane Green Wave who have also secured a Bowl Game for back to back seasons.

Both teams are coming off defeats in Week 12 so there should not be a problem in motivating the teams to get back to winning ways. The slight factor in favour of the Green Wave has to be the fact that they still need a win to secure consecutive seasons with a winning record and they are playing the final home game of the season, but I can understand why the Knights are favoured here.

Losing what should have been the starting Quarter Back with an injury at the end of last season that carried through 2019 was a blow for the Knights, but this team is well coached. Dillon Gabriel has been playing well at the position in the last couple of games, but the Quarter Back should be aided by a strong running game which will keep the Knights in third and manageable spots.

Over the last few games the Knights have picked up big chunks of yardage on the ground and the Tulane Defensive Line has been struggling. I fully expect the Knights to move the chains on the ground which will open things up in the passing game for Gabriel and he should be able to help UCF to a big Offensive outing.

Running the ball is going to be the first choice for Tulane with their Quarter Back just having a few issues with his accuracy in recent games. The Green Wave do have an Offensive Line that can plough lanes for some big runs, but the Knights Defensive Line have prided themselves in being able to stop the run and they will likely double down in wanting to do that this week when you think of the way Justin McMillan has been playing.

McMillan started off very hot at the Quarter Back position for Tulane, but he has five Touchdown passes and eight Interceptions during a four game run in which the Green Wave have been beaten three times. The UCF Knights have the pass rush to put McMillan under pressure if the Green Wave are in third and long spots and that might lead to more turnovers and a chance to win this game by a healthy margin.

I do have to have respect for the Head Coaching job Willie Fritz is doing with the Green Wave and they have strong trends when coming off a loss and have also covered in all of their home games in 2019. However UCF are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight in the series and I think they can win and cover here.


Oklahoma State Cowboys @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: It is going to take something a little crazy to happen over the last couple of weeks of the regular season for the Big 12 to have anything other than a rematch between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Baylor Bears for their Championship.

One team that still has a sniff of cracking into the top two in this Conference is the Oklahoma State Cowboys but they have to win out and hope a couple of other games go their way. They do have the chance to play spoiler for rivals Oklahoma in Week 14 at the very least, but the focus has to be on this game and surpassing the seven wins earned in 2018.

Three wins in a row have given the Cowboys some momentum, but they will have to be very good on the day if they are going to best the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Mountaineers snapped their five game losing run with a win in Week 12, but they need two more if they are going to become Bowl eligible in Neal Brown's first season as Head Coach.

There is going to be a key battle up front as the Cowboys look to continue their strong performances running the ball as they go up against a West Virginia Defensive Line which has been stout for much of the season. Chuba Hubbard is still going to be very difficult to stop even though West Virginia have remained strong through injuries, and being able to do that should expose the Mountaineers Secondary which has given up some big yards.

Everything will be decided in the trenches, but Oklahoma State have momentum behind them and should be able to move the chains here on the road.

It does feel like the Cowboys will have more success than the Mountaineers when it comes to running the ball this week and Oklahoma State's Defensive unit have really picked up their play during the three game winning run. The Cowboys Defensive Line is holding teams to 3.3 yards per carry in that run of victories and they will be looking to force West Virginia to rely on Jarret Doege at Quarter Back.

Doege is coming off a very good performance in the win over Kansas State and he did give the Mountaineers a spark. That has to be respected, while it is hard to ignore the yards the Oklahoma State Secondary have allowed for much of the season.

However the Cowboys have begun to produce some significant pass rush pressure which has given their team the chance to make some big plays in the Secondary. The ten turnovers picked up in three games has given Oklahoma State some real belief in the Defensive schemes they are putting together and I think that could be the key to the outcome of this game and the potential cover for the road team.

Oklahoma State have covered in their last four games against West Virginia and they have some strong trends throughout the season. Winning on the road is not going to be easy for the Cowboys, but I think they can earn a turnover or two which helps them pull clear and make it four wins in a row before the big rivalry game against the Sooners in Week 14.


Boston College Eagles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: This is the seventh year Steve Addazio has been the Head Coach of the Boston College Eagles and they have won at least seven games in five of the last six seasons. There is still the chance to earn another winning record in 2019, but the Eagles are likely going to need an upset if they are going to become Bowl eligible.

At 5-5 the Eagles are one win away from doing that, but they face the Pittsburgh Panthers on the road in Week 14 and have to visit the 8-2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 13. Neither game is going to be easy when you think the Panthers are hoping to get into the ACC Championship Game and the Fighting Irish are looking for a third season in a row with double digit wins.

Boston College are coming out of a Bye Week which will help, but Notre Dame have won three in a row and crushed Navy in Week 12.

It might not be a season in which Notre Dame will be returning to the College Football PlayOffs, but they have only been beaten by top teams in Georgia and Michigan and both on the road. From an Offensive standpoint they will be very comfortable in Week 13 as it looks like the Fighting Irish will be able to move the chains whether they go to the ground or through the air.

Tony Jones might not have had the best of recent games for the Fighting Irish, but he should be able to get on track in this one. The Eagles Defensive Line have given up 5.5 yards per carry in their last three games and I would expect Notre Dame to establish the run which only makes life that much more simpler for Ian Book at Quarter Back.

Book had five Touchdowns last week in the win over Navy and should be able to have another big outing in Week 13. The Boston College Secondary have allowed over 300 passing yards per game through the course of 2019 and they have forced little pass rush pressure which will mean Book having time to dissect the schemes seen in front of him.

With the Fighting Irish expected to move the chains whenever they have the ball, the pressure will be on Boston College to match that or have to rely on turnovers. The Eagles are very clear with what they want to do Offensively, but the battle in the trenches may not go for them.

The Eagles will be looking to run the ball more often than not, but Notre Dame's Defensive Line have restricted teams to 3.7 yards per carry over their last few games. The preparation for this game being a game against Navy will have helped and I think Notre Dame will be confident having played as well as they did against the Midshipmen.

Boston College will have their moments because they do run the ball well, but you would favour Notre Dame to stall drives whenever they get into downs and distances where the Eagles have to throw the ball. Fumbles hurt Navy in the blowout last week and Boston College will have to be wary of active hands in this one too.

This is a big number on the handicap when you think of how well Boston College have done in games they are expected to be blown out in. They were crushed by Clemson and surprisingly beaten by 24 points by Kansas though and I think Notre Dame can find a couple of turnovers to help them pull clear and cover this spread in Week 13.


SMU Mustangs @ Navy Midshipmen Pick: Three teams are locked together at 5-1 within the Conference at the top of the American Athletic West Division and two of those are playing in Week 13. This is essentially an elimination game between the SMU Mustangs and Navy Midshipmen and it does feel like it is going to be a very close one throughout.

Both the Mustangs and Midshipmen have suffered losses to the other 5-1 team in the Division, Memphis, but the winner of this one can still edge to the Division title if they can win out. That is as much to do with the fact that Memphis don't have any easy games left themselves so there is plenty on the line for both SMU and Navy.

The Mustangs got back to winning ways before heading into their Bye Week in Week 12 and they will be hoping that the heavy loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will have dented some of the belief that Navy have had.

SMU have to be respected as they are very well balanced on the Offensive side of the ball with Xavier Jones running the ball strongly and Shane Buechele proving who he is after transferring from the Texas Longhorns to play Quarter Back. Jones might not have a massive outing because the Navy Defensive Line have been pretty strong for much of the season, but putting the clamps on him completely looks unlikely and that should at least set the Mustangs up when it comes to dropping back to throw the ball.

Shane Buechele has been very impressive for the Mustangs and has already helped the team to only their second winning season in seven years. The Mustangs will be hoping the running attack keeps the Navy Defensive unit honest and if it does you would expect Buechele to have another strong outing for the road team.

The big challenge for the Mustangs on the other side of the ball is going to be finding a way to stop Navy running the ball as they have enjoyed for the majority of the season. There is a chance that SMU can sell out a little bit to do that and the Defensive Line has been pretty stout, but the big concern for the Mustangs has to be the play of the Secondary.

This sounds like a good match up for them though because Navy won't be throwing the ball with the same effectiveness as other teams in this Conference. If the Mustangs Defensive Line can force some big plays up front, they can at least slow things down and make Navy go to unfamiliar methods in attempting to move the chains.

My feeling here is that the Mustangs can make one or two plays Defensively which can help them edge this game. Having more than a Field Goal start looks very important for the road team, even though Navy have been a very strong home team all season and have dominated the head to head in recent seasons.

The balance that the Mustangs have Offensively looks to be important though and Navy were blown out by the Fighting Irish last week while SMU were resting. It is a massive game for both teams and I think that will make this a close one with little to separate them and backing the underdog with the start is hard to ignore.

MY PICKS: UCF Knights - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 13 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
USF Bulls + 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 12: 6-3, + 2.53 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.11% Yield)
Week 11: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 10: 4-1, + 2.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 54.60% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 8: 4-4-1, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Week 7: 3-3, - 0.24 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 6: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.42% Yield)
Week 5: 6-1, + 4.40 Units (7 Units Staked, + 62.86% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)


Season 2019: 46-41-1, + 0.79 Units (88 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2019 (November 21-25)

We are now one week away from Thanksgiving Day in the United States and that also means the final Bye Weeks for teams are going to be completed.

It is a sure sign that we are entering the final run towards the PlayOffs in the NFL as teams jockey for position in the final Seedings. January does have a feel of a 'new season' when teams are in the PlayOffs, but for now it is all about getting into a position to be able to play those games.

It is also a big time for Fantasy Players with a couple of weeks to go before most will enter their PlayOffs. I have a couple of teams in long-term Leagues, one that is Drafted every season and one which is Drafted with 'Keepers', and I look good to enter the post-season in both of those. Hopefully those positions can be locked up by the end of Week 12 and I can also rebuild the season when it comes to the NFL Picks too.

Before we get into the Picks, you can read a few thoughts I have from Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season as well as my updated Power Ranking.


Colin Kaepernick's workout debacle: I was pretty happy to hear that Colin Kaepernick was going to have a chance to impress NFL scouts last Saturday, but it seems like the Quarter Back and the League have agendas that can't be placed on the same page.

The late decision from Kaepernick's team to move the workout and open it up to the media meant seventeen of the twenty-five teams who had committed to come and watch in Atlanta decided not to make the hour trek to the new venue.

I have always supported what Kaepernick was taking a knee for and have separated it from the narrative that many wanted to run with in that he was offending the flag. However I don't know whether he is as keen to return to the NFL as he claims when he makes the kind of power move he did last week.

It will have reminded many teams of the kind of baggage they could be dealing with and for someone who is a borderline starter, but much likely to be a backup, it is simply not worth upsetting entire locker rooms or fan bases for.

Last week I was sure this was going to be the first step towards Kaepernick returning to the League in 2020, but now I am less certain. Some teams will need new starting Quarter Backs next season, but there are some big names that could be on the market and players who are considered better than Kaepernick.

This all feels like it has been a PR move from both sides and one that is not going to make supporters of either side feel very positive about it.


Lamar Jackson will win the MVP award: Another thought from last week was about the regular season MVP race and I thought Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson were leading the way.

After the blow out of the Houston Texans Jackson looks to be the clear favourite now and I think he will be a runaway winner of the award if the Ravens are able to finish with a top two Seed in the AFC.

They are the hottest team in the NFL right now, with the only downside being of possibly peaking too early, and Jackson has been a huge part of that with strong stats both through the air and on the ground.

You can see what Jackson means to the whole team when hearing Mark Ingram introduce him last week and I have no doubt that the Quarter Back is key to the record Baltimore have so far this season.


Should New England be worried?: That might sound like a stupid question when a team is 9-1 and with the joint best record in the NFL, but the Patriots were far from happy with their Offensive performance in the win over Philadelphia last week.

Tom Brady is still playing well, but there is little support around him and Rob Gronkowski's rumoured return looks to have been shot down for good.

Others suggest Antonio Brown could be re-signed by New England, but it just goes back to the point that the Patriots need to be better from an Offensive point of view if they are going to win the Super Bowl again.

Defensively they have remained strong, but in the PlayOffs they will need more from the other unit if they are going to defend the title they won last season. The Patriots can get things right for sure, but I wouldn't be rushing out to add any of their Offensive pieces to my Fantasy team and I think the team are going to be well tested in reality on Sunday too.

My Top Five

1) Baltimore Ravens- Deshaun Watson was rattled and they have the leading name for the MVP regular season award. Add in the fact the Ravens have beaten the New England Patriots in a blowout and I think they deserve to move to my Number 1 spot.

2) New England Patriots- pretty much for the whole of this season I've thought of the Patriots as the team to beat. By Week 11 I thought they would have figured out things on the Offensive side of the ball, but failure to show that so far means I have to drop them even after a road win.

3) New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees looked fully healthy and the Saints might be the team to beat in the NFC.

4) San Francisco 49ers- Jimmy Garoppolo had another big outing against the Arizona Cardinals, but the 49ers needed a late couple of scores to beat their opponents. The 49ers are getting healthier Offensively and the Defense is still playing very well.

5) Green Bay Packers- I am looking forward to Sunday Night Football when the Packers visit the 49ers, a game that could easily be seen for a second time in the 2019 season when we get to the PlayOffs.

My Bottom Five

32) Cincinnati Bengals- they remain winless and that doesn't look like changing soon.

31) Washington Redskins- some of the players looked completely disinterested as the Redskins were walloped by the New York Jets. Season can't end quick enough for everyone involved.

30) New York Giants= they were on a Bye Week in Week 11.

29) Miami Dolphins- a blowout home loss to the Buffalo Bills would have hurt, but the Dolphins are still very much on the path to a top five Pick in the NFL Draft.

28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- both the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Jets keep winning and that means dropping Tampa Bay into this spot.

Week 12 Picks

There have been a lot more bad weeks than good for the NFL Picks up to Week 12, but I have had back to back winning weeks.

Even with that in mind that does not mean I have been very happy with what I saw in Week 11... The most bogus miss of the season has to be the Arizona Cardinals failure to cover with a 10 point start despite leading the 49ers by three points with less than a minute left on the clock.

The Cardinals gave up a Touchdown with time expired to lose by ten points as the 49ers recovered a ball that had been thrown around by the Cardinals as they looked for a miracle. I have no doubt this should have been a Touchdown that needed to be reviewed, while for some reason the 49ers did not have to kick the extra point which would have seen my Pick lose.

It is easily the baddest of bad beats that anyone could have suffered this season and prevented this from being a week which took a serious chunk out of the deficit. I will have to appease my mind with the knowledge that it was a winning week, but there is still a lot of work to do to make sure the 2019 season ends with a winning record like 2018.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: The AFC Wild Card race could be one that goes down to the wire and even 4-6 teams like the Cleveland Browns must feel there is still an opportunity for them to make the PlayOffs. None of that will matter to these two AFC South teams meeting on Thursday Night Football with the lead in the Division on the line.

Both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are at 6-4 for the season and are one and two in the Division. The Colts can take a big step towards a home PlayOff Game if they can win as they already have beaten the Texans once this season and will hold the tie-breaker over their rivals as well as being a game ahead of them with six games left to go.

That does put some pressure on the Texans who are looking to pick themselves up from the absolute beatdown that the Baltimore Ravens put on them in Week 11. However this is a Quarter Back and a team who have not been ones that have allowed defeats to define them and I do think Deshaun Watson and the Texans will be much better in Week 12.

The Texans have lost three in a row to their Divisional rivals and the earlier loss in the regular season does put them in a difficult position on a short week. Houston will have to look to establish the run in order to give Watson a bit more protection at Quarter Back.

They have been good at running the ball with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson being backed up by the ability of Watson to scramble for First Downs too. But this week the Texans are facing an Indianapolis team who have been improving when it comes to making plays to stop the run and the Colts have restricted teams to 3.1 yards per carry across their last three games which is significantly better than their season numbers.

Houston's Offensive Line continues to have issues in pass protection and the Colts can also stall some drives with big plays made in obvious passing situations. I still believe Watson will have some success because is a quality Quarter Back, but he has also made some bad mistakes when being put under intense pressure and that could be the case in this big game too.

Indianapolis are a run first Offensive unit and they should be feeling pretty happy with the game plan after dominating Jacksonville up front. Jacoby Brissett is back in the line up after missing the defeat to the Miami Dolphins, but he didn't need to be much more than a game manager when helping Indianapolis see off the Jaguars in Week 11.

Marlon Mack is injured, but Jonathan Williams had a big game at Running Back for the Colts in his absence last week. Williams will be given support by Nyhiem Hines and Jordan Wilkins and the Colts will have to believe they can still work something on the ground against this Texans Defensive Line which has just been struggling in recent games to contain the run.

The Quarter Back is also capable of making some plays with his legs, but Brissett will be hoping he will be at least in a third and manageable spot throughout this game. JJ Watt is out so some of the pass rush pressure is not there, but Brissett will know that even being with a potentially hobbled TY Hilton won't be enough to move the chains without the run opening up the passing lanes.

There is no doubt that the Houston Secondary can be exposed and Brissett had a big game against them earlier in the season too. He should be able to help the Colts move the chains and only a big turnover game will see the Colts blown out as far as I am concerned.

It makes the points with the underdog look appealing in this Thursday Night Football game. The Texans have been a good team to back off a loss in recent seasons, but they have been struggling at home where they can be a touch overrated.

Indianapolis have also been the better team on Thursday Night Football and the Colts have a very strong recent record against Houston. Having more than a Field Goal looks too good to ignore as far as I am concerned.


Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There is a real opportunity for the Buffalo Bills to take control of one of the Wild Card spots in the AFC if they can beat another team with a losing record in Week 12. They can't really afford to overlook the Denver Broncos considering how the remainder of the schedule shapes up, but Buffalo have to also factor in the big Thanksgiving Day coming up this Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Broncos have to pick themselves up from a disappointing Week 11 effort which saw them blow a 20 point half time lead in the eventual loss to the Minnesota Vikings. That means Denver have lost three of their last four games to fall to 3-7 and it looks like a season after which the Head Coach and future of the Quarter Back position are going to have to be seriously considered.

There is some talent throughout the roster and that has seen the Broncos at least be largely competitive in games throughout the 2019 season. They can continue that against the Bills especially if there is even a slight lack of focus from the home team and the match up might be one that works for the Broncos too.

Running the ball against the Bills Defensive Line has not been easy in 2019, but in recent games there have been a change in fortunes for them. Over the last three games Buffalo have given up 4.8 yards per carry when teams look to pound the rock against them and I do think Denver's Offensive Line will be feeling confident in establishing the run in this game.

It is the best way for Brandon Allen to get into a position to help Denver move the ball as the backup Quarter Back has struggled for accuracy. Any time he will be in third and long situations you have to give the Bills pass rush the huge edge in the match up and forcing Allen to throw from pressurised positions could lead to turnovers and drives stalling.

I expect some misdirection to be used as it was in the first half against the Minnesota Vikings, but Denver should have the ability to establish the run which will give them a chance to upset the odds in this one.

Clock management is going to be key for both teams as Buffalo will be looking to run the ball first and foremost themselves. However the Bills have just hit the wall on the Offensive Line which has seen them struggle for consistency when it comes to running the ball, and that could be highlighted against the Broncos Defensive Line which is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry in their last three games.

The Broncos have been strong up front for much of the season, but Josh Allen could have a little more success throwing the ball than you may imagine. The Denver Secondary has just been exploited by teams in recent games, although Buffalo don't have the same kind of Receiving weapons as Cleveland, Minnesota and Indianapolis have been able to call upon.

John Brown should be able to make some plays for this team and Josh Allen can make some plays with his legs, but the Denver pass rush has come alive in recent weeks and they should be able to stall some drives too. The Quarter Back has been looking after the ball a little better in recent games, but Allen might be forced into making big plays in this game and that could lead to more mistakes than we have seen.

My feeling is that Denver have a chance to keep this one close and getting more than a Field Goal worth of points is hard to ignore. The Broncos should be able to run the ball with some success and they have some decent numbers against the spread, while Buffalo have sometimes struggled to really impose themselves against teams they should be beating.

Taking the points in this one looks to be the right play.


Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: At the end of October many Carolina Panthers fans were not too concerned by the continued absence of Cam Newton at Quarter Back. Some even went as far as to say that Kyle Allen was a better fit for the team and at that point the Carolina Panthers looked to be in a very good position to try and battle for the NFC South Divisional title.

Three losses in four games have just stemmed the momentum the Panthers had been earning and the blow out loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11 would have really hurt. It has dropped the Panthers to 5-5 and a loss in Week 12 would likely mean the team are also likely to be out of contention for the Wild Card spots in a top loaded Conference.

The Divisional race could be beyond them for sure by the end of this week as they get set to face the New Orleans Saints who are 3 games clear at the top of the NFC South. These two teams are facing each other twice in the final six weeks of the season, but the Saints will be the more confident team coming into Week 12 and being at home should be a huge boost for them.

Drew Brees looked much better in Week 12 as the Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road, but they have to remain focused and not worry about earning a potential revenge over the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving Day. The Quarter Back is likely to be aided by a big game out of both Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara who are going to be establishing the run against a Carolina Defensive Line which has just struggled to clamp down on the run.

It will open things up for Brees who will have seen the holes that Carolina have had exploited in the Secondary in their recent games. Matt Ryan carved them up in Week 11 and Brees should have plenty of success either throwing the short passes to Kamara or hitting Michael Thomas further down the field.

The only real chance the Panthers have of getting into a position to earn the upset is through the pass rush and see if they can pressure Brees into forcing his throws. It won't be easy if they are struggling to contain the run though and instead the Panthers are going to need a big effort out of the Offensive unit.

Christian McCaffrey will earn his numbers as he has throughout the season, but the Saints have shown they can be stout on the Defensive Line which may limit the Running Back. New Orleans will focus their attention on trying to clamp down on McCaffrey and force Kyle Allen to beat them through the air and I think the Saints will be able to at least force the Quarter Back into some third downs where he will need his arm to convert the yards.

Allen should have some success moving the chains as he did in the loss to the Falcons in Week 11, but he has to be aware of the pass rush that New Orleans can generate. A bigger concern might be the Interceptions with nine thrown in the last four games as Allen has just struggled with his accuracy despite having some decent Receivers to target.

The Saints have been able to turn the ball over in recent games and they will feel they can make some big plays against the Panthers to give the team a chance to pull away for the win.

The underdog has dominated the recent series between these two Divisional rivals, but I think the Saints can cover what looks to be a big mark on paper. They are 4-1 against the spread when coming off a big win like they had over the Buccaneers in Week 11 and I do think New Orleans will have a bit too much for Carolina on both sides of the ball.

A couple of turnovers in favour of New Orleans should give them a chance to pull away in this one and I will back the home team to cover despite an upcoming Thanksgiving Day game.


Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets Pick: Jon Gruden might not have seen his second tenure with the Oakland Raiders get off to the start he wanted, but the team look a lot better in 2019 compared with 2018. This is happening despite the upheaval caused by Antonio Brown before the season even begun, while most expected the Raiders to be a year away from being competitive at the least, but Oakland moved to 6-4 with a third win in a row in Week 11.

They head east to take on the New York Jets in Week 12 and have to respect the hosts who have won back to back games. Those wins have come against two of the weakest teams in the NFL, but both times the Jets have been set as the underdog and they won't mind being in that situation again in Week 12.

Sam Darnold looks to be as healthy as any point in the 2019 season and he can lead the Jets to another upset this week. He should be aided by Le'Veon Bell who is facing up to the Oakland Defensive Line which is giving up 5.8 yards per carry in their last three games and that should at least give the Jets the chance to establish the run.

The Offensive Line has not really dominated as they would have liked, while Bell is not having the kind of season he would have wanted after signing a big contract with New York but this could be one of the better weeks the team enjoys on the ground. It may even take a few passes to just open things up on the ground, while Bell can also be a factor as a Receiver coming out of the backfield against this Oakland team.

Darnold will look to make the short passes to Bell and Jamison Crowder to open things up for the deep ball and he should have a decent enough outing against the Raiders Secondary. There are one or two things that will concern the Quarter Back and those who are backing the Jets and that is the Oakland pass rush which has generated a lot of pressure on opposing Quarter Backs in recent games.

If Sam Darnold 'sees ghosts' as he did in the Monday Night Football loss to the New England Patriots it could be a long day for him, especially as Oakland have also been turning the ball over with big plays in the Secondary. However the game plan should involve plenty of Le'Veon Bell and that should see the Jets just move the chains and give themselves a chance of the upset.

I have been impressed with what I have seen from Oakland, but this is a tough spot for them having to play the early game on the East Coast and with a big game against rivals Kansas City on deck. That game in Week 13 is huge to decide which way the AFC West Division may go so it could be a big distraction for Oakland, while the Raiders are also playing an improving New York Defensive unit.

Josh Jacobs has been huge for Oakland and the rookie Running Back has proven to be a key to the Offensive side of the ball, but this week he is facing a Jets Defensive Line giving up just 2.1 yards per carry in their last three games. The Jets have been able to clamp down on Running Backs all season and they will believe keeping the Raiders in third and long will be a big win for them.

You have to respect how well Derek Carr has been playing at Quarter Back for Oakland and I do think he can make some positive plays in this one too. However he has just found himself under more pressure from pass rushes in recent games and now faces a Jets team who have generated plenty of pressure on opposing teams in the last three games.

There are still one or two holes in the Secondary which can be exploited for Oakland, but the New York pass rush should be able to stall drives and I think it will be key in perhaps giving the home team enough opportunities to win outright, let alone cover with the points.

Neither team has been very impressive at home/on the road when it comes to the trends, but I think the whole spot favours New York in this one. It would not be a major surprise to see Oakland perhaps just be a touch distracted and having a full Field Goal start with the hosts looks too good to pass up.

As well as Oakland have done to get to 6-4, I do think they have been involved in very close games all season and the Jets have turned a corner with back to back wins. Those have come against two of the weaker teams in the NFL so I don't want to give them too much weight, but the Jets look in a good spot to cover here.


Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots Pick: No team has won more games than the New England Patriots in the 2019 NFL season and the defending Super Bowl Champions are very much on course for at least a Bye into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

With that in mind it might be something of a surprise to see the Patriots as frustrated as they were out of their win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. The win would have been one that was appreciated by their opponents this week as the Dallas Cowboys were able to move a game clear of the Eagles in the NFC East.

There is no doubt that the Patriots have the edge when it comes to the Coaching match up, but Tom Brady is the latest player on the injury report and I do think a banged up Patriots team will have a test in Week 12. Brady is going to play, but the Offensive unit have struggled for consistency and they don't figure to have a much easier day when facing this Dallas Defensive unit.

Offensive Line problems have meant Sony Michel has not really been able to get going on the ground as he would have liked and that has put more pressure on Brady at Quarter Back. The Patriots continue to use a committee at Running Back, but the Dallas Cowboys will feel they can at least make enough plays up front to limit the damage any of the players used by New England can do on the ground.

Tom Brady has to hope the run game can at least put his team in third and manageable spots because he won't really want to face the Dallas pass rush while searching for open Receivers. Mohamed Sanu is the latest New England Receiver to go down with an injury and the only consistent threat will be Julian Edelman, although Dallas have a Secondary which can at least prevent the Receiver from doing significant damage to them.

In Foxboro it is difficult to imagine the Patriots are completely shut down Offensively, especially with Tom Brady likely wanting to prove a point after a below par performance in Week 11. Brady has enjoyed playing the Cowboys in his career and has openly admitted this is a team he has rooted against throughout his life having grown up a 49ers fan. It should mean he is motivated for a big outing, but New England have to find a consistency Offensively which has been lacking throughout the season.

The Patriots Defensive unit have really been the key to the 9-1 start and they will be looking to slow down a Dallas team who have been pretty strong for much of the season. One aspect in which New England have just struggled of late is stopping the run and it should be an opportunity for Ezekiel Elliot to get back on track after some disappointing performances in recent games.

Elliot himself has said he is not bothered by personal stats as long as the Cowboys are winning and three wins in four games during a time when the Running Back has not been at his best is the most important thing. I do think Elliot may be in line for a better performance in this game and Dallas are going to need him to release some of the pressure that will be heaped on Dak Prescott's shoulders if the Cowboys are not able to at least rip off some big gains on the ground.

Dak Prescott has had some very big outings for Dallas in recent weeks, but this Patriots Secondary is not easy to throw against. They are scheming very well and have players that can erase the impact a banged up Amari Cooper may have on the game.

However we did see Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb have big games for Dallas in the win over Detroit last week and I do think Prescott will have a better day than Carson Wentz. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line and that should give Dallas a chance of keeping this one close with Prescott also capable of making some plays with his legs.

On paper this does look like a lot of points to give to the road team when you think of the issues New England have had Offensively. My one concern has to be how Dallas have played when meeting teams with winning records and the lack of covers in those games, while New England are very strong at home.

However I do think Dallas can control the clock by getting the run going behind this Offensive Line and even the upcoming Thanksgiving Day should not provide a distraction for the Cowboys. This is a huge game for Dallas to show they can compete with the top teams in the NFL and I think they are worth backing with the start on the spread.


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: With the way things are shaping up in the NFC, these two teams are going to be playing PlayOff Football in January. It could be a game of huge importance when it comes to working out the Seeding in the NFC too and both the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are also trying to hold off teams chasing them in their respective Divisions.

The San Francisco 49ers have the best record in the NFC at 9-1, but they are only a game ahead of the Seattle Seahawks in the West Division having lost to them a couple of weeks ago. Their visitors the Green Bay Packers are at 8-2 which has them half a game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, but this is a game that could see the Packers move into a strong spot to take a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Injuries have just slowed down the dominance of the 49ers in recent weeks, but they should have George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders available to spark the Offensive unit. Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing well at Quarter Back and will need to be at his best in this one too, but the 49ers might be able to go back to basics in Week 12 and that is running the ball effectively.

In the last three games San Francisco have really struggled to establish the run, but I think the Packers Defensive Line has proven to be one that can struggle to stop teams on the ground. The return of Kittle and Sanders will mean the Packers can't sell out to stop the 49ers on the ground and I do think we will see the 49ers get back to what was successful earlier in the season.

The recent performances of Garoppolo have to be encouraging anyway as he has given the 49ers a chance to win games even with some problems on the ground. Green Bay's pass rush could cause issues if the 49ers are not able to keep Garoppolo and the Offense in third and manageable spots, but I do think the Quarter Back can have a strong showing against a Packers Secondary that has struggled at times throughout the season.

Of course it can be hard to oppose the Green Bay Packers when you think they are coming out of a Bye Week and the extra preparation for this game makes them dangerous. This feels like the kind of game in which Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones can really put their stamp on things as they will establish the run against a San Francisco Defensive Line which has not been able to stop teams on the ground.

Throughout the 2019 season San Francisco have struggled to clamp down on the run, and I do think Green Bay can have success in this one too. And that just makes things a little more comfortable for Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back who will need to be kept in third and manageable spots if the Packers are going to win this game.

Any time Green Bay are in obvious passing spots or behind the chains you can expect the San Francisco pass rush to be unleashed against an Offensive Line struggling in pass protection. The 49ers should be able to get to Rodgers even though the Quarter Back is a pretty mobile one and that pressure can only aid what has been a very good Secondary for San Francisco.

I don't like opposing Aaron Rodgers who is capable of making some big throws to move the chains, but this does feel like a game in which he may struggle for some consistency. If the Packers do have some issues in staying in front of the chains then it could be difficult to maintain drives and I do like San Francisco in this Sunday Night Football offering.

My feeling is that San Francisco will be more balanced when it comes to the Offensive play-calling and that can be the key to the outcome of this game. Green Bay are out of a Bye Week, but they are only 1-3-1 against the spread the last five times in that situation and the 49ers should be motivated to show they are as good as the record would suggest.

The public are behind the visitors but the spread looks to be trending in favour of the 49ers which suggest the sharp money is on the home team. I tend to lean that way too and will look for San Francisco to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 41-42-1, - 10.04 Units (165 Units Staked, - 6.08% Yield)