Tennis Picks 2019 (April 26th)

I didn't have the time to research the Tennis Picks for Thursday so there were no selections made to back up the win we had on Wednesday.

My mind was not ready to sit down and work things out after the Manchester derby on Wednesday evening and the slightly longer than expected journey back home due to roadworks being done on long stretches of the motorway. You don't want to hear my sob story here though, instead the focus is on the Tennis Picks from the Friday Quarter Final matches at the tournaments being played this week.


Guido Pella + 3.5 games v Dominic Thiem: There would have been a real hope for Dominic Thiem fans that their man was ready to get back to some of his best tennis after he won a big Masters title in Indian Wells. That came on the hard courts and the return to the clay courts would have been seen as a good time to put some strong runs together.

An early defeat in Monte Carlo was a real surprise, but Thiem has reached the Quarter Final in Barcelona without expending too much energy. Two good looking wins over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Jaume Munar will stand the Austrian in good stead, but his numbers are still some way down on where they have been on the clay courts in recent years.

Where he has been someone who holds somewhere in the low 80s in terms of percentage, Thiem is holding down at 71% on the clay courts in 2019. Even though Thiem has yet to drop a set in this tournament, his hold number has only improved to 77% and it is the return game that has been key to his wins.

His whole game is going to be tested by Guido Pella who is having a career season on the clay and is looking to maintain his consistency on the court. The Argentinian has reached a career best Ranking at the beginning of the week and is continuing to trend in a positive direction with a couple of strong wins on the clay of Barcelona.

Guido Pella dropped the first set this week, but he has won five sets in a row as he has produced three wins to reach the Quarter Final. His service numbers are slightly improved this week compared with the season, while Pella has also been returning well enough to believe he can challenge Dominic Thiem if the latter is not able to turn the switch and produce a much better level than he has for much of 2019.

These two played a tight match on the clay of Buenos Aires last season and it feels like Pella is coming into this Quarter Final in much stronger form. Coupled with Dominic Thiem's slight decline in form on the clay courts through 2019 compared with previous seasons and this could be a close match in which the games being given to the underdog look very appealing.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: An indoor court on any surface should be something that is very much a confidence booster for a player like Petra Kvitova. You may assume that the clay courts are not really the surface for someone who is as aggressive as Kvitova is on the court, but she has shown throughout her career that she can be very effective on the surface.

The serve certainly helps Kvitova as it can set up short balls on a surface where she would prefer to avoid being dragged into the long rallies that could see her break down as she continues chasing the lines. It was a very strong weapon for the Czech player last year and she began her tournament in Stuttgart with a comfortable win in the Second Round.

In recent years Kvitova has had something of a mixed time in Stuttgart with some early losses around a deep run at the event. She is favoured to see off Anastasija Sevastova who has had some really good results on the clay courts in recent years, but who has perhaps not matched up the kind of level that Kvitova has produced on the surface.

The Latvian has been the more consistent returner on the clay out of the two players in this match, but she has not managed the same kind of numbers Kvitova produced in 2018. It is also going to be a big challenge for Sevastova to deal with the Kvitova serve, although their previous matches have been close enough to think the underdog does have the chance to spring the upset.

However I am backing the favourite to win and cover considering the performances on the clay over the last twelve months. Petra Kvitova has been playing at a very high level over that time period and it is enough to believe she can win this match with a break more in each set of a straight sets match.


Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: This looks like a Quarter Final that is best suited to the clay courts with two players who are very comfortable on the surface looking to secure some vital World Ranking points. Pablo Cuevas is a veteran these days who is clinging onto his top 100 World Ranking as he has struggled for consistency, while Matteo Berrettini is approaching his career best World Ranking having hit his peak earlier in 2019.

Both players have made their way through to this Quarter Final in different ways. Where Berrettini has been pretty dominant in his two wins, Cuevas has had to dig deep and need a final set to come through his own matches and this has come just days after winning a title on the Challenger Tour.

Fatigue could be a potential issue for Cuevas who has performed well enough on the clay courts in 2019, but has struggled when it comes to the return of serve which has prevented him winning more matches. Those numbers have actually dipped on both serve and return in the tournament here in Budapest as Cuevas has held in 75% of his service games and broken in 25%.

Now Cuevas has to deal with Matteo Berrettini who has been a big time server on the clay courts in the last couple of years but who has struggled with his own return. So far in his three matches in 2019 the Italian has been actually much improved with his return, but the serve has suffered a little bit, although the two wins in Budapest have been impressive against Mikhail Kukushkin and Aljaz Bedene.

In Budapest Berrettini has been holding 85% of the service games played and has broken in 35% and those numbers are impressive enough to give him the edge in this Quarter Final. I do think all of the tennis that Cuevas has played in the last couple of weeks is going to make it difficult for him too and needing three sets to win his two matches this week and now playing for a third day in a row is a tough spot for the veteran to be in.

Matteo Berrettini won't have things all his own way, but he looks to be performing at a higher level than Pablo Cuevas in the conditions and I will back the younger man to come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Guido Pella + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.60 Units (2 Units Staked, + 80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (April 24th)

Last week was not the best for the Tennis Picks, although I did finish up with a very slight profit from the Monte Carlo Masters.

It was not an easy week to be perfectly honest and the final two players being Dusan Lajovic and Fabio Fognini underlines the point as the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal were upset earlier in the tournament. With both players losing early there may be some hope for others when the French Open comes around, although I don't think you can make sweeping statements about how tournaments are going to develop from one event.

This week the ATP Tour has moved to two different spots in Barcelona and Budapest, while the WTA Tour is also back with a couple of events in Istanbul and Stuttgart. Those events have begun, but I have not really had time to research the selections before Wednesday as I look to get the week off to a positive start.

The Thursday selections will be made in a much shorter post and likely posted on the morning of those matches because I will be at the Manchester derby on Wednesday evening and then I will be putting up a longer thread for the Friday Quarter Finals.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: Matches between Grigor Dimitrov and Fernando Verdasco have proven to be tight and competitive affairs for the most part, although the veteran Spaniard did crush Dimitrov in straight sets at the French Open last year. To be fair to Dimitrov, it wasn't a one-sided match despite the 3-0 scoreline in sets, but it does mean he has lost two of the three previous matches between these players on the clay courts.

With that in mind it may be something of a surprise I am backing Dimitrov over Verdasco in the Second Round in Barcelona, but I think the superior health of the younger player is going to have an impact in this match. Fernando Verdasco had lost his opening match in Marrakech and Monte Carlo against players he was favoured to beat and I would not want to read too much into his win over fellow veteran and compatriot Feliciano Lopez in the First Round here.

The win will give Verdasco some confidence, but a knee issue has prevented him from taking in some of the tournaments last month and being a new father may have distracted him from putting the time in on the court as he would have liked.

His head to head to with Dimitrov would be a slight concern when opposing him, especially as the Bulgarian is not the most effective on the clay courts. Two wins in Monte Carlo before being defeated by Rafael Nadal will help Dimitrov, but he was not dominating his matches and the last couple of years shows he is someone who will give his opponents a chance of beating him.

In the last couple of years Dimitrov is holding serve at less than 80% of the service games he has played on the clay courts. The return game was in good nick in Monte Carlo though and I expect Dimitrov to at least challenge the Verdasco serve which has seen opponents win 42% of return points against it.

One of the real issues for Verdasco in the last couple of weeks on the clay is the lack of success he has had on the return himself and I think Dimitrov may have the edge in this one. Playing in Spain could be tough with the fans likely to be behind Verdasco, but Grigor Dimitrov might just have the superior fitness on the court which can see him win and just about cover this number over three sets.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019 Update: + 56.04 Units (593 Units Staked, + 9.45% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs First Round Picks (April 23-28)

NBA PlayOffs 2019- First Round Series Game 5-7 (April 23-28)

As I mentioned last weekend at the start of the NBA PlayOffs, my plan was to split the thread for the First Round Series with the first four games of each Series covered in the first thread and the remaining games covered in this one.

I will have a separate thread for the NBA PlayOff Conference Semi Finals which could begin as soon as this upcoming weekend, especially as both the Eastern Conference line up could be in place by as soon as Tuesday 23rd April.

One of those Semi Final Series has already been put together as both the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics swept through the First Round without dropping a game. They are the only two teams do that and that Semi Final Series is one I am very much looking forward to between the team that finished with the Number 1 Seed in the East versus the team that had been favoured to earn the Number 1 Seed in the East in pre-season. Both the Bucks and Celtics look to be right on form and it would not be a massive surprise if we needed the full seven games to separate them as we did in the First Round in 2018.

A number of other teams will be looking to close out their Series in the next couple of days with Toronto, Philadelphia, Portland, Houston and Golden State all returning home with 3-1 leads and all will be favoured to complete their wins without the need for any more games.

Only one Series is guaranteed a Game 6 and that is the one between the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets which has all the hallmarks of one that may go all the way to a seventh and final game.


You can read my early PlayOff selections here and the remaining Picks from the First Round Series can be read below.


Tuesday 23rd April
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Game 5 Pick: Game 1 of this First Round Series feels like a lifetime ago when you think of how things have panned out since the Orlando Magic stole Home Court advantage on the first day of the 2019 NBA PlayOffs. They have not been able to maintain those standards though and the Magic have now lost three in a row with a couple of those coming by wide blow outs including in Game 4.

It is very difficult to know how the Orlando Magic are going to be able to pick themselves up from the body blows they have taken as it has quickly proven to be a Series in which they are overmatched. Even Head Coach Steve Clifford has mentioned the Magic need to be perfect if they are going to win games and the struggles Offensively have made it nigh on impossible to add to the Game 1 win over the Raptors when the Number 2 Seed were caught cold.

Orlando have to find the adjustments they need Offensively to make this a competitive Series and it says a lot that they have not scored more than 93 points in a single game since Game 1. That is not the way you are going to win PlayOff Series without being an incredibly strong Defensive team, but the Magic are struggling at both ends of the court and it has become very difficult to see things changing now.

Kahwi Leonard has already shown the Raptors faithful why he was traded to push Toronto forward and his four strong Offensive showings have led the way for his team. He scored 37 points in Game 4 and Leonard is looking to pick up from where he left off and also give himself and his team-mates the chance to have a bit of a rest ahead of the Conference Semi Finals.

You have to expect positive noises from Orlando who have already surpassed expectations by reaching the PlayOffs. However they look to be in a very difficult spot and three straight losses ahead of facing the Raptors on the road is not a great place for them to be.

Teams who have lost three games in a row and now heading on the road are just 26-42 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs. The Number 2 Seed taking less money than the Number 7 Seed also have a high rate of covering the spread and Toronto have already shown they can blow out the Magic twice in the four games played between them.

The Magic are getting a double digit start which is a strong position for teams in the PlayOffs, but Toronto covered a similar spread when beating them in Game 2. A lack of rest between games has not bothered Toronto in recent games and I think they are going to come out and try and stamp their authority on Game 5 as soon as possible and I believe the Raptors pull away for a win and a cover.


Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 5 Pick: There has looked to be a clear talent differential between the top teams in the Eastern Conference and those lower down the standings and so far the NBA PlayOffs have highlighted that. Both Milwaukee and Boston have swept their First Round Series, while the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers have won three in a row since dropping Game 1 and have a chance to close out their own Series in Game 5.

The 76ers are significant favourites to do that on Tuesday when they host the Brooklyn Nets who will have suffered the blow of the narrow loss in Game 4 which has left them 3-1 down in the Series. A chippy Series means the emotions are going to be tough to control especially after losing in such a manner as they did, although the Nets, like the Magic, are talking up their chances of bringing this Series home for Game 6 after already winning once on the road during the PlayOffs.

It is a big ask for a team that has had no answer for Joel Embiid, although the Philadelphia Center's availability has to be up in the air at the moment. He should be ready to go in front of the home fans knowing there will be a few days to rest if the 76ers can close the show on Tuesday and that is going to give the home team a big edge.

Brooklyn just have not found the consistency Offensively to challenge the 76ers and I think it may be more of the same in Game 5. When that has happened the Philadelphia Offensive threat is too much to handle for Brooklyn and that has led to a couple of blow out wins already in this Series and the expectation is that we will see another one here.

Like the Magic, Brooklyn are in the tough spot of being on the road after three straight losses where teams have struggled mightily in the NBA PlayOffs First Round. Those teams are 26-42 against the spread as I've mentioned in the Toronto-Orlando section, and the 76ers have covered in four of the last five against the Nets.

The 76ers have also improved to 15-8 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season and they go into Game 5 in a nice groove as to how to deal with the Brooklyn Nets. I expect Brooklyn to give this a go as they want to end this season showing plenty of resolve, but the Philadelphia 76ers are the better team and I think they will be able to take control in the second half and eventually pull away for a win and a cover.


San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: When the First Round PlayOff match ups were put together, the feeling was that this one may be the closest of the eight First Round Series to be played. It looks to be panning out that way with the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets the only teams to be guaranteed a Game 6 and there won't be many ruling out the chance of seeing them compete in a winner takes all Game 7 back here in Denver at the weekend.

There really hasn't been a lot between these teams so far in this First Round Series and it has come down to one or two really big moments to spark something. In both of the wins earned by the Denver Nuggets they have put together one dominant quarter in the second half to pull clear of the Spurs and earn the victory, but now we are getting into the Coaching battle to make the difference in those tight moments.

In that regard you have to give Gregg Popovich the edge considering his depth of experience compared with Michael Malone. Popovich will be demanding much more intensity from his players after the way Game 4 unfolded at home and I do think he has shown enough throughout his career to expect a reaction from the Spurs.

Denver made some good adjustments in Game 4 which proved to be vital in helping them snap a poor record on the road at the Spurs, but now once again the scenario has changed. Now the expectation is on the Nuggets who are favoured to win having been the underdog on the road in Game 4 and these little mental factors can really throw players.

The Coaching edge added to the change in mentality of the teams does make me believe the San Antonio Spurs are the right team to be behind in Game 5, even if they come up short for the outright victory. The Spurs are 4-0 against the spread when coming off a double digit loss at home and the Nuggets have gone 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen following a win.

I do think there is every chance this game is going to be cracked open at some point in the second half as they have tended to be, but I think the Spurs can use the points to stay within the spread. This should be the funnest game of the night with the amount of tension attached to it, but both teams look happy shooting the ball at the moment and I will look for Gregg Popovich to find the right words to make sure his San Antonio team are competitive until right to the end.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 5 Pick: Out of all the First Round Series, this is easily the one I have struggled with the most as I really believed the Oklahoma City Thunder were the better team. Instead the Portland Trail Blazers have moved into a 3-1 lead in the Series after winning Game 4 on the road and they are favoured to earn their spot in the Western Conference Semi Finals in Game 5.

The injury to Paul George has not been used as an excuse from the Thunder, but it has become apparent that they have not had the kind of scoring they needed to stay with the Trail Blazers. Russell Westbrook has been filling out the stats sheet, but the lack of depth with the Thunder roster has really shown up here and it looks a long road back for a team that has been eliminated in the First Round in each of the last two seasons.

You never know with Westbrook and he is someone who can come out firing off the back of an inefficient game, but the Thunder have had no answer to Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The return of the latter from injury at the beginning of the NBA PlayOffs has been huge and the pair have been the strength in the backcourt that has not been matched by Oklahoma City.

The superior three point shooting of the Trail Blazers has come to the fore throughout this First Round Series and I do wonder how the Thunder can make the adjustments they need at this stage of the Series. None of those adjustments have shown up in the PlayOffs so far and it is going to be a case of Westbrook and George willing them to a win than doing anything different than what they have so far.

As I said, Westbrook is someone who can turn things into a positive very quickly in a Series, but he will need to have changed his entire approach to do that and I am not sure it is going to happen in Game 5. With the Portland Trail Blazers continuing to shoot lights out from the three point range compared with the Thunder, they may be able to pull away and hold onto a lead again.

Portland have covered in both games played at home in this Series and improved to 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at home against the Thunder. The Trail Blazers have improved to 35-15-3 against the spread off a double digit win and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 1-4 against the spread following a double digit defeat at home.

Add in they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games and 5-16 against the spread in their last twenty-one games against the Western Conference and I am going to back the favourite to secure their place in the Semi Finals with a win and a cover.


Wednesday 24th April
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Game 5 Pick: The Utah Jazz produced a big effort in the fourth quarter of Game 4 which helped them avoid the sweep in this First Round Series against the Houston Rockets. They were very much helped by the Rockets going cold in that quarter, but it is going to take a monumental effort for the Jazz to bring this Series home later this week as they still trail 3-1 after four games.

For most of this Series the Utah Jazz have looked second best and the two blow out losses at the Houston Rockets has to be having some effect mentally. Neither Game 1 nor Game 2 were particularly close and I don't think it is really feasible to think the Houston Rockets are going to be as cold from the field as they were at the end of Game 4.

I will give Utah some credit in that they have made the adjustments after Game 2 to limit the impact James Harden is able to have on the court, but you can't completely stop someone who is leading the way as the MVP of the NBA regular season. James Harden is also going to feel much more comfortable at home and the Houston Rockets know they can't get involved in a tough Series with the Golden State Warriors likely going to be resting after most expect them to close their own First Round Series with the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday evening.

Once again this Series shifts its favourite having seen the underdog cover the spread in the last two games, but the spot may be a good one for the Houston Rockets. In Game 4 I used the trend of a team coming off an upset loss and then playing at home in the next game which has seen teams go 58-35-4 against the spread in those situations and this time the Houston Rockets can take advantage of it.

The spread is bigger in Game 5 than it has been in either of the first two games that have been played in Houston, but the two Rockets wins here have been by 32 and 20 points respectively. The Rockets are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games off a straight up loss and they are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games at home.

I imagine the Game 4 loss has just refocused the Houston Rockets too and I can't see them having the kind of sleepwalking quarter they did in Game 4 to allow the Jazz to force another game. It is a big spread and Houston have not covered as a favourite of 8 or 8.5 points this season, but I think they will have too much for the Utah Jazz in this one as they bounce back from an upset loss in Game 4.


Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After the stunning Game 2 comeback from the Los Angeles Clippers which saw them overcome the biggest deficit in NBA PlayOff history to win a game, things have gone back to the way most expected in this First Round Series. The Golden State Warriors have won back to back road games at the Staples Center which has taken them to the hill in this Series and the Warriors are a huge favourite to make sure of their place in the Western Conference Semi Finals.

For the most part the Warriors have been head and shoulders above the Los Angeles Clippers who will improve for the experience as a number of young players have overachieved this season. Free Agency could be a big time for the Clippers with some believing they are the leading team to sign Kahwi Leonard who has long coveted a move to Los Angeles.

Adding him to a young core of players who will come on leaps and bounds from the season they have had could make the Clippers a contender to win the NBA Finals next season, especially as most are expecting this to be the last rodeo of the Golden State Warriors with their current roster.

The Warriors are ignoring all those rumours at the moment as they look for a third NBA Championship in a row and they will want to get a couple of days of rest in the legs by preventing this Series from needing a Game 6. The layers very much believe that is going to be the case with the Warriors set as a big double digit favourite to win Game 5 and it is difficult to see this going any other way.

However asking double digit favourites to cover in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs has been a lot more productive this season than it has been historically. The Warriors are 1-1 against the spread when it comes to that situation so far and my lean is that they are more likely to cover the number than not.

I can't play it though with the Clippers desperate and having every chance of a backdoor cover if the Warriors call off the dogs in the final moments of the fourth quarter. Instead I think the Golden State Warriors are trying to knuckle down Defensively and they have held the Clippers to 105 points and fewer in five of the last six games between these teams. In both games in Los Angeles the Clippers scored 105 points each time and I do think the Golden State Warriors will believe that strength on that side of their game is going to lead to a Series win.

You can never oppose the Warriors from suddenly getting incredibly hot from the three point line and scoring heavily themselves, but the total points line looks a big one. The power of Golden State means the layers take no chances with that total point line in their games, but the 'under' is 10-3 in the last thirteen in the Oracle Arena.

Things may slow down scoring wise in the second half if the Warriors have built a big lead and both teams begin giving other members of the roster extended minutes too. With the number where it is, I have to play the 'under' in this Game 5 when I expect this Series to come to a close.


Thursday 25th April
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 6 Pick: The first of two Game 6s that are going to be played in the NBA PlayOffs First Round comes on Thursday evening as the San Antonio Spurs try and stay alive against the Denver Nuggets. After going into Game 4 at home with a 2-1 lead, the Spurs have lost back to back games to the Nuggets and now will be back in front of their own fans and looking to keep this Series alive for a 'winner takes all' Game 7 back in Denver.

The manner of the Game 5 defeat has to have really stung the San Antonio Spurs as they trailed by 30 points at one stage and the eventual 18 point defeat will have given the Nuggets belief. The fact Denver have snapped a losing run on the road in San Antonio in Game 4 will only have added to the confidence of the visitors who have made the right adjustments in each of the last two games.

Not many would have picked Michael Malone to out-coach Gregg Popovich, but that has been the situation in the past couple of games and Popovich has recognised as much. It has to be said that the Spurs don't seem to have the same level of talent as the Nuggets, but one of the major factors has been the slump suffered by Derrick White at a time when Jamal Murray has come alive for the Nuggets.

For San Antonio to turn this Series and move back to Denver for Game 7 they are going to need White to perform as he had been doing prior to Game 4. The last two games have not been to the level White would have wanted from himself, but the whole team being back home has to be a boost considering how much better San Antonio have played here compared to on the road.

Denver have to keep doing what they are doing, but they might be running into a much tougher Spurs team than the one they faced in Game 5. The Spurs have been strong bouncing back from heavy road losses where they have struggled to score points and that has been particularly the case when they have played at home in their next game.

The Spurs have won three of the four games at home in that spot this season and they are facing a Denver team who have lost eight of their last eleven as the road underdog. Of course one of the exceptions in that run was a Game 4 win here, but I think the Spurs are going to be motivated at home and they can do enough to force a Game 7.

San Antonio are 12-7 against the spread favoured by less than 4 points this season and the favourite has improved to 13-6 against the spread when the Spurs and Nuggets have met. There are some poor trends for both teams to try and get the better of in this one and I think a tense Game 6 may be decided by home court advantage for the Spurs.


Friday 26th April
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 6 Pick: We have seen one of the First Round Series needing a third weekend to separate the teams involved as they head into a Game 7, but the Golden State Warriors will be desperate to avoid falling into the same situation. On the other hand the Los Angeles Clippers will be feeling very good about themselves having won at the Oracle Arena for the second time during this First Round Series, although they have lost both games played at the Staples Center.

Steve Kerr was not very happy with the way his Golden State team played in Game 5 as they looked to close the Series out and this additional game is a slight issue for them. If they win the Warriors will be going into the Western Conference Semi Final Series with the Houston Rockets on Sunday and the latter have already arrived in the Bay Area to prepare for that eventuality.

Adding a Game 7 to the docket would be a real problem for the defending Champions who have perhaps not taken the Clippers as seriously as they should have. In Game 2 the Warriors blew the biggest lead in a NBA PlayOff game when losing that one and another home loss in Game 5 may have broken some of the aura around their home advantage.

The adjustments are going to have to be made Defensively after the way the Warriors allowed Los Angeles to have their way with things from the field. So far in this Series they have bounced back from sub-par efforts and I would think that is going to be the same on Friday in this Game 6.

Los Angeles will be trying to do the same as they have over the last couple of months and that is allow their depth to challenge teams who are superior to them. In Game 6 it was the play of the bench that once again led the Clippers to the huge upset on the road and the public are behind them in Game 6 as far as the spread goes judging by the tickets taken.

However I am going with the sharps who are backing the Golden State Warriors to bounce back in a big way. Defending Champions who are beaten by 6 or more points have gone 6-0 against the spread in the next game when playing on the road in the First Round of the PlayOffs.

The Warriors are also 6-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and they have gone 4-1 against the spread in the game after allowing at least 125 points. At the same time the Clippers have gone 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games following a win, including in Game 3 of this First Round Series when they failed to cover at home, while they are also 1-4 against the spread following a game in which they have scored at least 125 points.

Golden State are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games at the Staples Center versus the Clippers and the road team has improved to 11-4 against the spread. I can't imagine the Warriors are going to make the mistake of losing intensity for the second time in a row and they will be looking to make a statement ahead of the big Series with the Houston Rockets and I will back them to cover this number.


Saturday 27th April
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: Very early on in this First Round NBA PlayOff Series it felt like we were heading to a Game 7 and that is where the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs are going into the third weekend of the post-season. The momentum has swung back and forth between the teams as the Spurs led 2-1 before the Nuggets won two in a row and then failed to close out the Series in a road defeat in Game 6.

Now the feeling would be that the momentum is with the Spurs, but I think these teams are closely matched that a slight adjustment could see Denver win for a third time in a row at home during this Series.

Teams coming off a win in Game 6 have actually gone 13-18 against the spread in the last thirty-one times we have needed a 'winner takes all' contest. The home team have also gone 30-20 against the spread and in the NBA PlayOffs First Round those hosts are 15-10 against the spread with those trends all favouring Denver.

The Nuggets were very much in Game 6 until the end of the third quarter and the early stages of the fourth quarter when the Spurs took control of the game. They did allow the Spurs to shoot 57% from the field and that was underlined by the fact that San Antonio did not turn the ball over very often, but Denver will believe home comforts will perhaps put some pressure on the Spurs and see those numbers decline.

The home team has improved to 4-1 against the spread in this First Round Series and Denver are looking to bounce back from a double digit defeat. The Nuggets are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in that spot and three wins in a row at home against San Antonio has to be boosting the confidence of a team who will feel they took the Spurs best shot and still had every chance of turning Game 6 in their favour.

I backed San Antonio in Game 6 as they usually recover from a subpar Offensive effort, but it has been much tougher backing up strong performances on that side of the court. The Spurs are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve when scoring triple digits on the board, while San Antonio are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games facing a team who have won at least 60% of their home games.

San Antonio are also 2-7 against the spread when coming off a straight up win and I do think the Nuggets have shown they can make the adjustments throughout this Series to want to back them in Game 7. Gregg Popovich is a top Coach and I have a lot of respect for what he can get out of his players, but I will back the Denver Nuggets to move through to a Western Conference Semi Final Series with the Portland Trail Blazers.

MY PICKS: 23/04 Toronto Raptors - 12 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/04 San Antonio Spurs + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
23/04 Portland Trail Blazers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 Houston Rockets - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
24/04 Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Clippers Under 235 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/04 San Antonio Spurs - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Golden State Warriors - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Denver Nuggets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

First Round PlayOff Update: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (April 23-24)

This is the second half of the Double GameWeek Fantasy Players will be looking to in the last really big push you can make in all of the Leagues you are involved in.

My Fantasy Weekend was not too bad thanks to the use of the 'Bench Boost' chip that has seen me earn 65 points and with all but one of my fifteen players involved with teams who are set to play for a second time within GW35.

That is about as positive as this Easter Weekend was thanks to Manchester United's terrible effort in the embarrassing 4-0 defeat at Everton on Sunday. The only saving grace is that none of the other three teams chasing the remaining two Champions League spots in the Premier League were able to win and two of those were also beaten this Weekend along with United.

Somehow United remain alive, but the Manchester derby is up next and that is going to have a big impact in both club's seasons. Manchester United can get themselves firmly back inside the top four if they can beat both Manchester City and Chelsea in the coming days at Old Trafford, while Manchester City are still in the pressurised situation of needing to win all of their remaining four Premier League games if they are going to defend their English title for the first time in their history.

Both Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal also play over the next couple of days and the race in the top six looks the most intriguing in the Premier League down the stretch. Cardiff City will be hoping Brighton and Southampton are beaten in their games in hand this week if there is going to be a real chance for them to escape the relegation zone with three games remaining so the next two days to bring together some key fixtures.


There will be no Fantasy Football selections in this post because no changes can be made before GW36 which begins on Friday once again this week. That Weekend Football post should be up some hours before the deadline although I am sure most will have already been targeting the Liverpool players ready to face Huddersfield Town on Friday evening.


Below you can read my thoughts on the way I think the four re-arranged games in the Premier League will go this week.


Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick: The Champions League Semi Final spot has been secured by Tottenham Hotspur, but they don't want to be in a position where they have to win that competition to return to the top European tournament next season. Over the next few days Tottenham Hotspur can really take control of one of the top four places by winning their two games at new White Hart Lane and they can then begin to prioritise their Champions League ties with Ajax.

Losses for Manchester United and Arsenal on Sunday has eased the pressure on Tottenham Hotspur, but Mauricio Pochettino won't be offering excuses if his team continue to drop points. The away form has been miserable since the end of January so there is pressure on them to perform at home, but entering the new Stadium has been a boost for the entire club.

They have played 3 games here in all competitions and Tottenham Hotspur have won all of those without conceding a goal. They were pretty comfortable winners over both Crystal Palace and Huddersfield Town and now face a goal-shy Brighton team.

Brighton will at least have earned a bit of confidence back after picking up a goalless draw with Wolves this past Saturday to end a run of 5 consecutive losses in all competition. However it is yet another game without a goal for Brighton and that is going to be the main concern for them in their fight to avoid the drop.

Chris Hughton will want his team to defend well and look to capitalise on any nerves or tension Tottenham Hotspur may be feeling in their bid to finish in the top four. It looks a long shot for Brighton though and I think Tottenham Hotspur have enough talent in the final third to break down a Brighton team that have been giving up plenty of chances in recent games.

At odds against I think backing the home team to win with a clean sheet is the best way to approach this fixture.


Watford v Southampton Pick: There are a few Premier League games that had to be rearranged for this week and the one at Vicarage Road looks like it is full of potential as a fun one for the neutrals to enjoy.

Both Watford and Southampton are being managed by two attack minded coaches and their recent performances have backed that up. Watford have been in very good form at home before the unfortunate 0-1 defeat to Arsenal, but they can bounce back with another big result in their bid to get into the top seven and earn a spot in the Europa League.

They will be tested by Southampton despite the 3-1 defeat the visitors suffered at Newcastle United on Saturday. Poor finishing really let Southampton down and they continue to create a lot of chances and are playing much better than their 16th place in the Premier League table would suggest.

Ralph Hasenhuttl has found a system that gets Southampton playing with real positivity going into the final third and they have enjoyed success here at Vicarage Road in the recent past. They will definitely pose some problems when getting forward, but Watford will be looking to get after a vulnerable Southampton defence and I think both teams are going to get on the scoreboard in this one.

The draw doesn't really do a lot for either team, although it would be more accepted by the visitors. However I think both elevens will be searching for the three points and we may see a game that sees three or more goals shared out.


Wolves v Arsenal Pick: Both Wolves and Arsenal will be trying to bounce back from disappointing results this weekend as they chase ambitions that are still very much within their grasp. Wolves are chasing 7th place and can take a big step towards that if they can win their next two League games, while Arsenal are still very much in the fight for a top four Premier League finish and a return to the Champions League.

They may have both lost some ground as far as those goals are concerned this past weekend, but this is a big chance to get some momentum back behind them with four games left to play.

Wolves have been very good at home and they will believe they created enough chances to beat Brighton in the poor goalless draw on Saturday. Those chances should come against a vulnerable Arsenal team who have not been at their best away from home for much of the season despite the 0-1 wins at Watford and Napoli in their last couple of games on their travels.

Those clean sheets will give Arsenal some confidence, but Wolves have been strong at home and I do think the way Unai Emery's team will try and play will suit the home team. With the likes of Raul Jimenez and Diogo Jota in the side, Wolves will believe they will score goals here, but Arsenal can also create problems and I think both teams are going to contribute to a good game of football.

It may not be the focus of the neutrals on Wednesday evening, but this Premier League game can see both teams score and I will back them to perhaps produce at least one more than that on the day. At close to odds against, I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: There have been very few times watching Manchester United where I have been as devastated seeing a performance like the one they produced in the hammering at Goodison Park on Sunday. There was no fight and no desire from the players who allowed Everton to do what they want and the scoreline did not flatter the home team at all.

I would expect some serious discussions to have been had by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, his coaching staff and the players after the manner of the defeat on Easter Sunday. The comments made by Solskjaer were telling in the post-match conference, but now he will be demanding a reaction from the players in the Manchester derby in what is the first of two big games at Old Trafford this week.

You would have to think there is going to be a reaction from the players ahead of a very big game, while the top four places are still within the grasp of Manchester United who host Manchester City and Chelsea this week. I would expect a number of changes to the starting line up Manchester United use in this one, but the minimum the fans are going to be expecting is some desire and pride to wear the shirt which was missing on Sunday.

I think Manchester City will head to Old Trafford expecting a reaction from the home team too and the 4-0 Everton win might not have been a good result for the Premier League title chasing team. Now Pep Guardiola will know Manchester United can't be any worse and the fans will play their part so he will look to set his Manchester City team up to control the tempo of the game.

Losing Kevin De Bruyne to an injury could be a massive blow for Manchester City, but the likes of Leroy Sane and David Silva were rested on Saturday. Those two could step up to give Manchester City some freshness in the final third and this is a team who have not been giving up too many chances of late which makes them a tough team to knock out of their stride.

Manchester City have also continued to create chances and I think they are going to be too good for their rivals in this one, although Manchester United look a huge price here. It is funny to think Manchester City are a shorter price than Barcelona to win at Old Trafford and I would not be surprised if some are looking to back United to bounce back and show they are much better than what they produced at Goodison Park.

However I have to be concerned with a lack of home goals in big games this season. Manchester United have hosted Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Juventus and Barcelona at Old Trafford and produced a grand total of two goals. Both of those came against Arsenal, while the three European teams mentioned and Tottenham Hotspur have all won with a clean sheet at Old Trafford so far in the 2018/19 season.

You can't just blame Jose Mourinho's tactics either as half of those games have come under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and very little was created in the draw with Liverpool and the defeats to PSG and Barcelona. The pace in the forward positions may see Manchester United have some success in this one against Manchester City who have played a lot of football in the last three months, but this is a team who have kept clean sheets at Wembley Stadium against Spurs and at Anfield and the Emirates Stadium.

I would love to be wrong and I am not one of those Manchester United fans that would rather lose this fixture to avoid giving the Premier League title to Liverpool. Ultimately United need to finish in the top four and that means needing to win this game after losing to Everton, but I think they are someway short of the very best teams and the lack of goals in the home games against those teams is a major concern.

Manchester City could be the latest to profit from that and have won on their last 2 visits to Old Trafford. This time they may be able to secure the three points with a clean sheet which looks a very big price, although I will be at Old Trafford cheering on the home team and looking for an upset that reignites the push for Champions League Football.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 1.95 Bet Victor
Watford-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Wolves-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.87 Bet Victor

Boxing Picks 2019- Terence Crawford vs Amir Khan (April 20th)

There are a couple of cards taking place on Saturday evening which have live coverage attached to them in the United Kingdom.

The main one of interest in the one from New York whose main event in Terence Crawford vs Amir Khan, while we also have the return of Danny Garcia on a separate card.

In the United Kingdom it is something of a tick along show for Eddie Hearn's Matchroom promotion as Dereck Chisora is back following his Knock Out defeat to Dillian Whyte at the back end of 2018. The main event features David Allen and Lucas Browne and while the former is a very popular fighter, neither is really expected to be involved in the title picture any time soon.

You can see my selections from all three of those fights below.

Dereck Chisora vs Senad Gashi

The brutal ending to the fight with Dillian Whyte may have masked the fact that Dereck Chisora looked to be winning the rematch with his rival last December. Some may have though it was time for Chisora to call time on his career, but he had only recently hooked up with David Haye promoting him and Chisora is willing to have one more crack at trying to become a World Champion.

It is a long path back to the top, but more changes have been made as Chisora now employs Dave Caldwell as his trainer and he will be looking to show what he has learned under the new team.

Senad Gashi has been given another chance by Eddie Hearn after lasting Seven Rounds with Carlos Takam on the same card as the Whyte-Chisora rematch last December. To be honest it wasn't a great fight and I do wonder if Takam had put his foot on the pedal earlier whether he would have got the German out of there a bit quicker than he did.

A fast start is what I will be expecting from Chisora to put a statement win on the board and stopping Gashi quicker than Takam has to be the target. While Gashi showed enough heart to have another chance, he is a Boxer someway below Chisora's level even at this stage of the latter's career.

Some will point out Gashi is having a proper camp for this one unlike what he had for the Takam bout, but I think it is going to take a poor performance from Chisora to keep him in this one. Having a small interest in Chisora winning this fight in the first half of the contest is the selection as I look for him to put some pressure on Gashi and begin to break him down much earlier than Takam did.

David Allen vs Lucas Browne

I don't want to be a 'hater' but these two have no real right to be headlining the O2 Arena as both David Allen and Lucas Browne look to be at least one and possibly two levels below the contenders of the Heavyweight Division, never mind the elite fighters.

It is a crossroads fight for both as I really don't think the losing fighter will have anywhere to go.

A little over twelve months ago Lucas Browne was being Knocked Out cold by Dillian Whyte in this Arena and I would have thought the former Heavyweight Champion was at the end of his time back then. He has since won three fights, but he was Knocked Down by a journeyman in a warm up for this bout and Browne is very much a faded force.

David Allen is far from an elite Heavyweight, but he has a decent chin and I think the long camp preparing for this fight has seen him get in decent shape. I am not sure he is has the power to finish Browne off early in this one, but the faded Australian is probably a Four Round fighter these days and he is likely going to be running out of gas at that point of the bout.

A small interest in Allen getting the job done between the Fourth and Eighth Round looks to be worth an interest in this one. I think by then Allen will be showing the superior fitness and he has managed to stop his last two opponents between those Rounds.

I can see a fatigued Browne beginning to take too much punishment once he has tried his best to finish the fight very early and Allen can wear him down and get the referee to jump in when Browne takes one too many punches without reply.

Terence Crawford vs Amir Khan

I really think there may have been some intrigue about this Welterweight fight if the Amir Khan of even two years ago was going to be turning up, but it is going to be an upset of huge magnitude for him to beat Terence Crawford now.

Terence Crawford is a pound for pound king and the last time we saw Amir Khan he looked like a shot fighter who was taking too many shots from an average Samuel Vargas.

At the beginning of this one I can see Khan's speed being an issue as Crawford just takes a look at his opponent, but by the Third Round I would expect the American begins to find a bit more success. Some will point out Crawford is coming up to a Division where Khan is unbeaten, but Crawford has stopped his two opponents he has faced at 147 and this Khan is not the same fighter he was.

Crawford broke down Jeff Horn and David Benavidez and I would suggest both are stronger than Khan these days. It took until the Ninth Round to get Horn out of there, but I have a feeling Crawford is going to time Khan onto something a bit earlier than that and can get the former World Champion out of there.

Danny Garcia stopped Khan in the Fourth Round, Canelo Alvarez worked him out in the Sixth Round and I would not be surprised if Crawford find something similar. It might be slightly longer than Garcia, but I will recommend a small interest in Crawford finding the finishing touches at somewhere between the Fifth and Eighth Round.

MY PICKS: Dereck Chisora to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

David Allen to Win Between 5-8 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Terence Crawford to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (April 20-22)

So put your hand up if you were one of the Fantasy players that put their faith in Brighton last week knowing they had two home games with Bournemouth and Cardiff City to come... Mine is high in the air and it was a shocking decision.

The Wild Card I had been saving to make sure I have a full selection for GW35 with a team loaded with players who have two games did not work out anywhere near to how I had hoped.

I am looking for a bounce back week after what was arguably my worst GW since September and my positive progression up the standings has been well and truly halted with that terrible GW34.

Below you can read my Fantasy advice for the week as well as my thoughts on the Premier League games to be played from Saturday through to Monday as the race for the title, the top four and the final relegation place hits the final run in.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur put a huge emotional effort into the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg that was played between these teams on Wednesday night. It was a remarkable game with five goals inside the first twenty-two minutes and the drama of a late winning goal from Manchester City being ruled out by VAR saw the atmosphere burst like a bubble in injury time.

The fans are going to be feeling the emotional exertions of Wednesday too and Pep Guardiola has a big challenge to pick his players up for a third meeting with Tottenham Hotspur in ten days.

I have no doubt that Tottenham Hotspur will be feeling a slight lack of energy themselves, but they have the positive of getting through to the Champions League Semi Final to give them a boost of adrenaline. However I can't ignore what has been a miserable away form for Spurs in recent weeks that has seen them lose 7 of their last 8 on their travels including a defeat here in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Some poor mistakes from Manchester City in defensive positions cost them the away goals that ended their participation in that competition, but I think they can respond with another win over Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday. This time I believe the margin may be a little more comfortable for Manchester City who have not let negative emotions take over their performances in the last twenty months.

Last season they recovered from their Champions League exit by securing an impressive 1-3 win over Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium and I do think Manchester City will be looking for a strong end to retain the Premier League title. Ultimately they did win the game on Wednesday and will feel they were more unlucky than deserving to go out of the Champions League and a stronger depth of squad can give Manchester City the edge in this big Premier League fixture.

Last season Manchester City beat Tottenham Hotspur comfortably in both League games. This season their two wins have been tighter, but Manchester City have been the better team in arguably all three games played between these teams and I will back Manchester City to make a statement of their intent for the rest of the season by earning a measure of revenge over Spurs.

I will back the home team to win by two or more goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- has two games this week, but the Champions League exit to Tottenham Hotspur should mean Manchester City play their strongest XI both times.

Alternative: Kevin De Bruyne- could be the key cog in the title race and earned three assists in the Second Leg against Spurs during the week.


Bournemouth v Fulham Pick: There may not be a lot for Bournemouth and Fulham to play for at this stage of the season, but I think there is enough ambition in both camps to make this a decent game of football.

Last weekend Bournemouth responded to Eddie Howe's demands for a strong finish to the season by dismissing Brighton by a remarkable 0-5 scoreline at the Amex Stadium. While that has ended suggestions the players are already looking ahead to their holidays, there should also be motivation to apologise to the fans who were unhappy watching Bournemouth go down to a 1-3 defeat to Burnley in their last game here.

Eddie Howe made it clear he was not unhappy with the response of the fans as they had been behind the team throughout the ninety minutes and only voiced discontent at the final whistle. He will be urging his players to produce a big performance in front of those fans this weekend and they are facing a poor travelling Fulham team.

The motivation for Fulham is clearly making sure they finish at least 19th in the Premier League table, but the players won't want to go through the entire League campaign without an away win. They are trying to snap a run of 7 successive away defeats this weekend, but Fulham's defensive issues have let them down and I think that is going to play a part in another defeat away from Craven Cottage.

Bournemouth won by a wide margin at Craven Cottage when in much better form earlier this season, but I imagine this one is a little more competitive. However I think the home team will use the momentum of their victory last weekend to propel them forward down the stretch in the 2018/19 season and I will look for them to win this game.

Backing them to do so in a fixture containing at least two goals is the call as they will likely need to hit that mark themselves considering Fulham have scored in 5 of their last 7 away League games. There will be confidence in the away side having won last weekend too, but the away day blues may continue for one more game at least and I will back Bournemouth to win a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: David Brooks- a source of goals and assists for the home team who should be making most of the play.

Alternative: Callum Wilson- scored and grabbed two assists last week, Callum Wilson could be in line for a strong end to this season.


Huddersfield Town v Watford Pick: A huge effort was put into their last Premier League fixture by Watford who had a lot of things conspire against them in the defeat to Arsenal. The overall performance was strong despite playing with ten men for the large majority of the fixture and Watford may feel a little unlucky not to have picked up a positive result on the day.

They will be looking to bounce back on Saturday with a visit to the bottom club Huddersfield Town and even the absence of Troy Deeney should not bother the visitors. For the most part this season Watford have been a dangerous team on their travels with some talented players in the final third capable of exposing spaces.

Both Roberto Pereyra and Gerard Deulofeu are expected to be back in the squad for this fixture and they can supply the bullets for Andre Gray to hit the target. Gray has not been in great form, but he has been in the right positions and can take advantage of a Huddersfield Town team who have conceded at least four goals in 3 of their last 4 games.

Huddersfield Town have been struggling at this level and the players seem unconvinced about Jan Siewert's tactics. It could mean another big decision is needed by the Huddersfield Town board before the Championship season starts and I think the recent effort in games has not been to the standard they would have expected.

Playing at home should get the players pumped, but Huddersfield Town were crushed 1-4 by Leicester City in their last game here. They are conceding too many goals and Watford can take advantage by winning a game featuring two or more goals which was the same recommendation I made when Leicester City won here earlier this month.

Fantasy Star: Andre Gray- has two games this week and sure to be leading the line now Troy Deeney is suspended. A chance to cement a place for the FA Cup Final.

Alternative: Gerard Deulofeu- is back in training and can follow up his starring appearance in the FA Cup Semi Final as Watford chase 7th place.


West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: Injuries and uncertainty about the future of many of the West Ham United players has perhaps been a factor in some of the performances in recent weeks, but they were very unfortunate to not earn a positive result at Old Trafford last weekend.

Manuel Pellegrini will be looking for more of the same from his players, but the injury to Manuel Lanzini is a blow to their chances of bouncing back and ending a run of 3 consecutive losses. A loss of that kind of creativity makes it very difficult for West Ham United whose players don't look particularly keen on putting in the kind of shift they need to if they want to win football games at this level.

West Ham United have conceded at least twice in 5 straight games and that makes it very difficult to win games, while they were beaten 0-2 by Everton in the last game at the London Stadium. The Hammers are also facing a Leicester City team who are very keen on returning to European competition and who had been in fine form under new manager Brendan Rodgers before their 0-1 defeat to Newcastle United in their last game.

That may have ended a 4 game winning run, but Leicester City are looking for a third straight win away from home. They have scored two or more goals in wins at Burnley and Huddersfield Town and Leicester City have a decent recent run at West Ham United where they have won twice and drawn in their last 3 visits to East London.

Winning here won't be easy if West Ham United play as well as they did at Old Trafford, but Leicester City have also been in good form and I will back the visitors on the Asian Handicap. At least that will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but I think Leicester City can take advantage of an injury-hit host to earn a victory on Saturday.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- limited chances last week, but a player in form and facing a team struggling with injuries.

Alternative: Felipe Anderson- scored last week at Old Trafford and the main creativity force for a team missing Manuel Lanzini.


Wolves v Brighton Pick: Losing games is a concern for any team in a relegation battle at this stage of the season, but losing in the manner Brighton did against Bournemouth and Cardiff City over the last seven days is a major worry for Chris Hughton, the players and the fans.

Back to back home losses while failing to score and conceding seven goals against a team out of form and one that is directly below them in the Premier League table is not what Brighton fans, or Fantasy players, would have been hoping for. They are now under intense pressure to bounce back, but the fixture list looks kinder to Cardiff City than it does to Brighton and there is every chance that The Seagulls are going to be relegated.

They will be hoping that Wolves are still suffering from the FA Cup Semi Final hangover which seemed to afflict them in their 3-1 defeat to Southampton last weekend. It was one of the poorer performances Wolves have produced all season, but Nuno Espirito Santo is not going to allow negative thoughts to linger and having another week to prepare for this fixture should help.

Wolves have also been significantly better at home than they have on their travels in recent weeks and that makes them a very dangerous opponent for Brighton to deal with. The home team have won 7 of their last 8 games at Molineux and they have scored at least twice in each of those wins while creating plenty of chances and really putting teams under pressure.

The ambition to finish 7th in the Premier League table should be motivating the Wolves players to bounce back from the defeat last week and I think they are going to have too much for Brighton who have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 7 away Premie League games.

Brighton do have a decent record here in recent visits, but this Wolves team is much improved from the one that Brighton last played at Molineux in April 2017. I expect a much better performance from Wolves than what they produced at St Mary's and I think the lack of confidence in the Brighton squad may see them fall to a defeat in a fixture that produces two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- has two home games this week and Wolves have been so strong here in recent weeks. Raul Jimenez has been scoring points for fun at home with goals and assists.

Alternative: Diogo Jota- the main strike partner to Jimenez and also a source of goals and assists when playing at home.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: The second of the five live televised Premier League games to be played this weekend comes from St James' Park and both Newcastle United and Southampton can play with an element of freedom as they search for a vital three points that will all but secure their spot in the top flight for another season.

It already feels like the two teams have enough to avoid relegation, but Cardiff City's win at Brighton on Tuesday night has tightened things up again. Both managers will recognise that and urge their players to focus on their own performances with decent form suggesting they have the quality to avoid the drop.

Newcastle United have been very impressive at home in the Premier League where they had won 5 in a row before the 0-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. They scored at least twice in each of those wins at St James' Park and they are facing a Southampton team who can be vulnerable defensively despite the clean sheet in the 0-1 win at Brighton in their last away game.

Ralph Hasenhuttl has his players performing with some belief and Southampton have been much improved under the Austrian. The attacking threat has become clear with Southampton scoring in 13 of their last 14 games in all competitions, but the worry is always the fact that they have kept only 2 clean sheets in the same run of games.

Both teams will feel they have the attacking threat to produce goals in this one and I think there is an element of freedom for the two teams who have been in decent form of late. The 5 points between Southampton and Cardiff City look huge with four games remaining for the latter and the biggest threat to my selection for this game has to be the 1-1 draw.

I think they can go a little further and am going to challenge the big quotes for three or more goals to be shared out despite the goalless draw between these teams earlier in the season. Prior to that result, Newcastle United versus Southampton fixtures had produced three or more goals in 7 straight between these clubs and I will look for that trend to get going again this weekend.

Fantasy Star: Solomon Rondon- three of his last four goals for Newcastle United have come at St James' Park and Southampton can be vulnerable defensively.

Alternative: James Ward-Prowse- didn't have an impact in the 3-1 win over Wolves from a Fantasy perspective, but has been important for Southampton.


Everton v Manchester United Pick: This is a vital fixture for Manchester United in their bid to get into the top four and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has made it clear his team need to win at least 4 of their remaining 5 games if they are going to get into the Champions League spots. One of those wins has to come against Chelsea at Old Trafford in seven days time, but Manchester United will also be looking for some momentum to take into the remaining games having struggled for consistency over the last month.

Ever since beating Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester United have lost 5 of 7 games in all competitions and that includes defeats in their last 4 away games during which time they have conceded at least twice each time.

It is an issue when going to Goodison Park where Everton have been in fine form of late- in their last 3 games here, Everton have drawn with Liverpool (0-0) and beaten both Chelsea (2-0) and Arsenal (1-0) and all three of those clubs are above Manchester United in the League table. Marco Silva should be confident his team can add another scalp to their collection at home, but Everton need to bounce back from their 2-0 defeat to Fulham last Saturday.

They have been better at home in general and Everton will be challenging a Manchester United team who may be lacking in confidence and have been having issues keeping clean sheets. In the final third Everton have some real quality and this is a huge test for Manchester United just days after exiting the Champions League in Barcelona.

A win is important, but I think Manchester United may be just about ok if they don't lose although that will put some pressure on them when facing Manchester City and Chelsea in back to back games at Old Trafford over the next week. They will finish up facing two of the current bottom three, while the teams above them in the race for the top four have some challenging fixtures to negotiate too.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be targeting a big win here and Manchester United are unbeaten in 8 against Everton, which includes winning on 2 of their last 3 visits here. I think Manchester United will have to score at least twice to earn the victory at Goodison Park this weekend though considering the defensive issues and I think this will be a fixture that produces three or more goals.

Everton's run of clean sheets at home against three of the top five is going to challenge the Manchester United attack, but the visitors have found goals away from home under Solskjaer and my biggest concern to see this pick as unsuccessful has to be a 1-1 scoreline. I think there is enough for both clubs to chase the three points though and it could be a fun game for the neutrals on Easter Sunday, although a tense one for the Manchester United fans and players that know the importance of a return to the Champions League.

Fantasy Star: Gylfi Sigurdsson- has been integral to Everton's successes in recent weeks and will be a danger throughout this one.

Alternative: Jesse Lingard- a severe lack of goals in the last couple of months as injury have slowed him down, but will likely start and does seem to get into those forward positions to cause problems.


Arsenal v Crystal Palace Pick: A couple of tough away games have resulted in back to back 0-1 wins for Arsenal at Watford and Napoli and they should be feeling confident now they return home for their latest Premier League fixture. With the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United facing difficult away trips to Manchester City and Everton respectively, Arsenal may feel this is a big chance to really take hold of one of the top four places which will mean a return to the Champions League.

My one concern for the players is that there could be some fatigue in the legs considering they have played those two tough away games since Crystal Palace last took to the field. Now they also have to deal with an opponent that has fantastic speed in the final third and who have been very confident away from home where Roy Hodgson can employ some counter attacking tactics that see Crystal Palace at their best.

Their recent results at the Emirates Stadium are not very encouraging, while Arsenal have won 8 in a row at home while scoring two or more goals in each of those. The last 7 wins have come by two or more goal margins too as Arsenal have shown defensive strength that has not really been a feature of their season in general.

I think the confidence of being back at home will help Arsenal overcome any tiredness they may be feeling and this Crystal Palace team have not been at their best in recent games. They were comfortably beaten at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this month and Crystal Palace have not been creating as many chances away from home as they would like.

With the run Arsenal are on at home with the streak of wins and the streak of winning by two or more goals I think they can do enough to beat Crystal Palace on the day. 4 of the last 6 games between these teams at the Emirates Stadium have ended with an Arsenal win of two or more goal margins and my feeling that the Crystal Palace players are perhaps mentally shutting down means I will back the hosts to cover the Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang- scores a large majority of his goals at home and has two games to come this week.

Alternative: Sead Kolasinac- Arsenal have had back to back clean sheets this past week and have been stronger at home.


Cardiff City v Liverpool Pick: This is a vital fixture at the top and bottom of the Premier League table and it won't surprise anyone to know it was one that was picked for television coverage.

In all honesty it is going to take a brave person to tell me that Liverpool are not going to win considering their recent form and the fact that Cardiff City have struggled when they have met the very best in the Premier League. The home team did give Arsenal and Chelsea some scares, but they have conceded at least twice in their home games with both of those London clubs mentioned as well as Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Manchester United and doing that against Liverpool will likely mean the three points are heading to Merseyside.

Cardiff City will offer a lot of fight and will battle with a Liverpool team who are travelling back from Portugal, but the lack of quality is likely going to cost them a victory.

However there is every chance they can play their part in this fixture on the scoreboard as Liverpool have conceded in each of their last 4 away games. One of those came at Fulham, another side in the bottom three, while relegation threatened Southampton also scored against Liverpool in a recent home Premier League game.

Earlier this season Cardiff City scored a consolation goal in their 4-1 defeat at Anfield and this is a team who have scored in 3 of their 5 home games against the 'big six' clubs with Liverpool yet to host. The Bluebirds can be a threat from set pieces and Liverpool have been far from invulnerable defensively and at the prices it looks like the right play.

If it wasn't for some recent heavy defeats at home I would have considered backing Cardiff City with the start on the Asian Handicap, but I think they are going to need to score if they are going to cover. I do think that is possible and backing both teams to score is the selection in this fixture.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- back in the goalscoring form and can lead the charge towards the title.

Alternative: Sadio Mane- both have scored in each of the last two games and they can pose a threat to Cardiff City throughout this League fixture.


Chelsea v Burnley Pick: The Monday Night Football offering has a lot more on the line for Chelsea chasing a Champions League spot than it does for Burnley who look to have earned the points to avoid the drop. However Sean Dyche is not someone who is going to allow his players to slack off with four games remaining and I think Burnley could provide a threat that comes from a team that have won 3 League games in a row this side of the last international break.

It does seem like Chelsea are struggling to put in full performances and after half time they have been having difficulties in recent games. They beat West Ham United 2-0, but the visitors were the better team in the second half, while Everton, Liverpool and Slavia Prague have all won in the second half in recent games.

That is definitely an issue that needs to be resolved if Chelsea are going to return to the Champions League, but they can earn the three points on Monday. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United will have played earlier this weekend, but both have tough away games so Chelsea can take advantage of any slips although I am not sure it is going to be a comfortable day at Stamford Bridge.

I think Burnley can play their part with the two forwards they use and the danger posed from set pieces. Burnley managed to score at Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool in the Premier League and they can cause Chelsea problems who have been playing plenty of big football in the last few days while Burnley have been resting and recuperating.

Chelsea don't concede many at home, but they have conceded in 2 of their last 3 home games with Burnley and teams are creating chances here. It would be a huge surprise if the home team don't score at least one and I will back both teams to get on the scoreboard in this one.

Fantasy Star: Ruben Loftus-Cheek- an advanced midfield spot and can take advantage of spaces created by Eden Hazard.

Alternative: Chris Wood- if Burnley are to score, it could be the New Zealander whose two goals last week almost certainly secured their place in the Premier League for the 2019/20 season.

Fantasy Football

Last week was a real body blow to my FPL team after putting my faith in Brighton who responded with a 0-5 and 0-2 defeat in the space of a few days. The decision to pick Kieran Trippier over Jan Vertonghen also backfired as he was rested, while Captaining Hueng-Min Son was barely a reward as he played three minutes (although did earn an assist).

Miserable times at a critical time of the season, but GW35 offers the chance of a bounce back with double games for a number of teams.

Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above

Bernd Leno (Arsenal- 4.9 Million): Has two games this week and Arsenal have earned back to back clean sheets. A decent option.

Goalkeeper 4.7 Million and Below

Ben Foster (Watford- 4.6 Million): Two winnable games for Watford and a real chance to add at least one clean sheet.

Rui Patricio (Wolves- 4.5 Million): Two games this week and Wolves have been much stronger at home than on their travels.

Defender 5.1 Million and Above

Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City- 6.1 Million): Will likely play both Manchester City games. Can be a threat from set pieces too.

Matt Doherty (Wolves- 5.3 Million): A real chance of at least one clean sheet and also an attacking threat in the system used by Wolves.

Defender 5 Million and Below

Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal- 5 Million): Like I mentioned in the goalkeeper section, Arsenal have had back to back clean sheets. Sead Kolasinac is also an attacking threat capable of providing assists.

Willy Boly (Wolves- 4.7 Million): A cheaper option to get into the Wolves defence and a serious threat from set pieces.

Yan Valery (Southampton- 4.1 Million): Have two games this week and Valery could be a forward thinking option from defence.

Midfielder 7.1 Million and Above

Raheem Sterling (Manchester City- 11.5 Million): Has been in seriously good form and Manchester City are all in to go for the Premier League title. Should play both games this week and scored twice against Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday.

Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City- 9.7 Million): Could be the key player in determining the destiny of the Premier League title. Had two assists against Crystal Palace last week and surpassed that with three against Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.

Heung-Min Son (Tottenham Hotspur- 8.8 Million): Scored twice at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday, but definitely a risk when it comes to rotation.

Midfielder 7 Million and Below

Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Arsenal- 6.7 Million): Could be having a big impact for Arsenal with Aaron Ramsey expected to be ruled out for the remainder of the season.

Diogo Jota (Wolves- 6.2 Million): Has scored in the last two League games at home and also managed to add another in the FA Cup Quarter Final against Manchester United at Molinuex. Serious threat with back to back games here to come this week.

Jordan Henderson (Liverpool- 5.3 Million): Does not have two games this week, but Henderson is being used in advanced positions for Liverpool and a cheap way to get into their midfield after he was rested in Portugal.

Forward 6.4 Million and Above

Sergio Aguero (Manchester City- 11.7 Million): Scored in the Champions League and should lead the line for both Manchester City games. Also scored twice in his last start at Old Trafford which is stunningly four years ago.

Raul Jimenez (Wolves- 6.9 Million): Two home games in a row and Raul Jimenez has scored the majority of his goals here.

Forward 6.3 Million and Below

Andre Gray (Watford- 5.9 Million): No Troy Deeney gives Andre Gray a chance to cement his place in the FA Cup Final starting eleven. Games against Huddersfield Town and Southampton should provide an opportunity to add to his five Premier League goals.

Danny Ings (Southampton- 5.4 Million): A favourite of Ralph Hasenhuttl and plays twice this week.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor
Bournemouth & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes
Watford & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Fred
Newcastle United-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook
Everton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Cardiff City-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 2.30 Paddy Power
Chelsea-Burnley Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Paddy Power