Thursday was the last truly 'busy' day at the Australian Open with both women's Semi Finals and one men's Semi Final being played and we will now get to see one match per day over the next three days. Some are obviously interested in the Doubles events and the Junior titles that will also be settled in the coming days, but for those who prefer the main Singles events will know the first Grand Slam event of the season is almost over.
The three matches that we saw on Thursday all had their own story lines, but the biggest 'story' that seems to have come out is the behaviour of Kim Sears while supporting Andy Murray against Tomas Berdych.
The fact that Sears made a few swears is hardly worth the headlines, but the controversy seems to have developed from WHAT she said, even if the majority of newspapers have overlooked that aspect of things.
For example, a number of the newspapers have printed what they believe Sears has said: 'Fucking have that, you Czech flash fuck'.
Once you have finished guffawing at the fact that a middle class woman has sworn a couple of times, I am shocked that not one commentator, journalist, fellow player, who all found the whole thing absolutely hilarious, have not seen anything wrong with what Sears said.
'You Czech flash fuck'...
Is there not something a little abnormal with that statement?
Let me put this to you, what would you think about someone complaining about someone from an EU country being on benefit support? If they are making a reasonable argument, you would likely tend to either agree or disagree and put forward your own opinion I'm guessing.
But how would you respond if said person began the argument as such: those fucking [Insert EU Country] bastards claiming benefits is a disgrace... Would that not set a few alarm bells ringing as to where this is going to go?
Some have argued in favour of Sears that Tomas Berdych 'is Czech isn't he?' Is that really a reasonable response? And if so, I am guessing the same person is not sure why John Terry was widely criticised by almost everyone for his 'you black c**t' comment that was directed at Anton Ferdinand seeing as Ferdinand 'is black isn't he?'
It comes down to what is perceived as a middle to upper class woman who couldn't possibly have been close to a racial slur- it is not as far a step from what Terry said to Ferdinand as the 'middle classes' who are linked with tennis in Britain would like to think.
And that is what worries me- this being laughed off because we have seen a middle to upper class woman swear, but how has no one who reported what Sears is thought to have said and put two and two together and said it is an unacceptable comment to make?
I also have absolutely no doubt that if Wayne Rooney or AN Other Footballer was sitting in those stands and did the exact same thing that the media would have rounded on him, correctly too, but Sears is being given a pass by middle class tennis writers 'protecting one of their own'.
I follow someone called @theoverrule on Twitter and he made an extremely valid point- what would the reaction have been if either Berdych or his fiancé had been seen saying 'have that, you English/Scottish shit'? I am pretty sure the British media who have found this whole incident hilarious wouldn't have been so impressed with those remarks!
We haven't actually had any confirmation or, perhaps more importantly, any denial that the words attributed to Sears were the ones that were actually used so you have to give her some leeway. I am just a little embarrassed by the response of people like Anne Keothavong, someone who I can imagine might have taken similar levels of abuse in the past and perhaps not have appreciated them then, can just say she believes it is 'hilarious', while other writers have made a point of writing the words attributed to Sears but believe it is simply 'supporting her fiancé'.
Personally I find that disgusting to think there has been so little made of the words used, namely the identification of where Berdych is from, and it does worry me about the mindset of the tennis journalists, commentators and the middle classes who are heavily linked with the game to believe this is a justifiable 'support'.
I've actually had something similar said to me at university- the whole thing seemed to become that more personal when I heard it said and there was a different level of rage that hit me in response because the attack felt 'different' than a normal attack. Calling someone a 'flash fuck' might not be the nicest thing, but I swear and I don't/can't have an issue with that.
Calling someone a Nationality/Religion/white/black flash fuck is more disrespectful and should be criticised not applauded.
The picks went 2-1 on Thursday with only Madison Keys' epic serving on match points at 1-5 in the second set preventing Serena Williams from completing the hat-trick. However, it was another strong day of winners and means the tournament is likely to be finishing on a very good note and makes my decision to wait until the Australian Open to begin the season look a good one.
Andy Murray coming through in four sets was a perfect result, even if his fiance's potty mouth has taken a few more headlines than the British Number 1 getting to the Final.
I am also considering doing a live blog for the two Finals over the weekend, but I will make a decision on that matter tomorrow evening and will state whether I am doing that on the post for the women's Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Stan Wawrinka: Anyway, back to the tennis which was actually stellar from Andy Murray in the Semi Final win over Tomas Berdych from 5-3 down in the first set.
That means Murray has reached his fourth Final at the Australian Open as he looks for his maiden title at this Grand Slam event, but first we have to see which player he will be facing in the Final as Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka meet for the third straight year at Melbourne Park.
The last two matches have been split 1-1 with the winner going on to win the title and both have needed a long five sets to separate the players from one another. In 2013, Djokovic came through 12-10 in the fifth set, while last season saw Wawrinka win 9-7 and Andy Murray will be hoping something similar develops on Friday and he can pick the bones on Sunday.
While I do think this is going to be a competitive and fun Semi Final to watch, I am going to say that this won't be the fourth Grand Slam match between Djokovic and Wawrinka that goes to five sets.
Djokovic has been serving well in the tournament and I think that is going to be a key for him to avoid having to go into a fifth this time, although Wawrinka has played well enough to say that the short odds on the World Number 1 winning in straight sets looks a touch disrespectful. However, I think Wawrinka has been a little looser when it comes to the unforced errors through the tournament, while I expect Djokovic to deal with his power better than Kei Nishikori did in the last Round.
It won't be a surprise if Wawrinka strings together a couple of games where he hits through Djokovic on the return of serve and earn a couple of breaks, but I also think Djokovic can extract the errors that will eventually lead to his win.
I have to respect the fact that Wawrinka has actually been leading 2-1 in sets in 2 of their previous 3 Grand Slam matches that have ended up in five sets, but I think this time it is Djokovic who has that lead. I can see there being an important tie-breaker in either set three or four being the key one for Djokovic to win if he is to get this done without over-extending himself and I like him to come through that tough moment with a 64, 36, 63, 76 win.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 3.60 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 34-22, + 24.66 Units (106 Units Staked, + 23.26% Yield)
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Friday, 30 January 2015
Wednesday, 28 January 2015
Australian Open Day 11 Picks 2015 (January 29th)
The final four days of the Australian Open are about to begin with the two women's Semi Finals both taken place on Thursday and the first of the men's Semi Finals taking over the night session.
That also means it is the last of the tennis to be played during the day (night for us in Britain) and the remaining matches will all begin at 8am UK time.
Maria Sharapova - 5.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: The first Semi Final at the Australian Open is the all-Russian affair between Maria Sharapova and Ekaterina Makarova and it will be up to the lesser known player of the two to try and turn around the head to head between these players. Sharapova has won all 5 previous meetings between herself and Makarova including two one-sided wins at the Australian Open.
However, it has to be said that the last of those wins came here in January 2013 and both of those victories were in the Quarter Final- those were also the first time that Makarova had played Quarter Finals in Grand Slam events as a Singles player and nerves could rightly have played a part in the results.
Since then, Makarova has reached two more Quarter Finals at Slam events, while breaking through the barrier by making it to the US Open Semi Final last September and I expect that to help her in this one. On the other hand, she is going up a fierce competitor in Maria Sharapova who is playing very well to open the 2015 season and I think she will still hold the mental edge in the match.
Makarova will have to serve well if she is going to give Sharapova all she can handle, but I do think she is potentially the more nervous of the two players. The problem I see for Makarova is that she can get a little down on herself when things are not going right and that showed in her heavy defeats at the Slam events last season.
Sharapova looks a player that won't give up when it isn't quite going the way she anticipated and I think the more experienced player comes through after taking a tough first set. This has the feel of a 64, 62 kind of win for Sharapova and I like her to cover the games.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Madison Keys: Serena Williams seemed to be suffering from a pretty strong cold in her interview after a dominating win over Dominika Cibulkova on Wednesday and it will be interesting to see if she has recovered from that or perhaps gotten worse.
On the other hand, Madison Keys overcame a problem with her left thigh in the middle of her match against Venus Williams and recovered two breaks of serve in the final set to come through against the older Williams sister. Now how Keys has recovered from that problem in the twenty-four hours she has had will be another important factor that can be tough to determine.
You have to feel there is added motivation for Serena Williams knowing that Venus was beaten by this opponent in the last Round. I have not got any conclusive evidence that she raises her game in this circumstance, but even reaching the level of her win over Cibulkova will make Serena Williams a strong favourite to overcome Madison Keys in this one.
Both players will look to dominate behind heavy first serves, but I think the movement and any limitations that Keys has will also play a part in the match. If she can't get the same pop on serve, Serena will get a chance to play first strike tennis which may enable her to dictate the tempo of the match.
I have a lot of time for what Keys can achieve, especially with the experience of Lindsey Davenport in her corner, but I don't believe the future will begin today and it will be the two veterans of the WTA Tour competing in the Final on Saturday. This feels another match that could potentially be tight in the first set and then dominated by the more experienced player in the second set as Serena Williams goes through 64, 62.
Andy Murray win 3-1 v Tomas Berdych: This match has a couple of fascinating angles that brings added intrigue, if that is possible, to a Grand Slam Semi Final.
Tomas Berdych has been in great form and dismissed the challenge of Rafael Nadal without too many problems, which was a surprise considering he had lost 17 in a row to the Spaniard prior to the Quarter Final.
He also has Daniel Vallverdu in his box, a man that was a part of Andy Murray's team up until the end of the 2014 season and who has been described as knowing Murray's game better than anyone else by the Brit himself.
Vallverdu will know the weaknesses Murray brings to the court, but I think Murray will benefit from knowing exactly what is thought of Tomas Berdych, even if he hasn't faced the Czech player since August 2013. That is surprising considering these two players are amongst the best on the ATP Tour, while it is Berdych who has won 6 of the 10 previous matches including the last 2 in a row.
That last win came on the hard courts of Cincinnati, which snapped a 3 match winning run for Murray on the hard courts against Berdych, but was also just six weeks after Murray had won Wimbledon and taken a huge burden off of his shoulders. Murray has been playing well enough here in Australia to show he is back to being a threat to win a Grand Slam title, although he is yet to have really been tested to the point that Berdcyh will.
Grigor Dimitrov wasn't playing as well as Berdych is when he lost to Murray in four sets, but I do think the British Number 1 is also playing at a very high level. I expect him to better at getting a length on the return of serves than Nadal was and Murray has also been serving fairly effectively for much of the tournament.
With the Berdych game working as well as it is, I would be surprised if this is a straight sets match, even if I did say the same about the Kei Nishikori-Stan Wawrinka Quarter Final match on Wednesday. I expect a lot of quality tennis to be on display, but with Andy Murray getting through to his fourth Final in Australia.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 @ 4.33 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 32-21, + 21.13 Units (101 Units Staked, + 20.92 % Yield)
That also means it is the last of the tennis to be played during the day (night for us in Britain) and the remaining matches will all begin at 8am UK time.
Maria Sharapova - 5.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: The first Semi Final at the Australian Open is the all-Russian affair between Maria Sharapova and Ekaterina Makarova and it will be up to the lesser known player of the two to try and turn around the head to head between these players. Sharapova has won all 5 previous meetings between herself and Makarova including two one-sided wins at the Australian Open.
However, it has to be said that the last of those wins came here in January 2013 and both of those victories were in the Quarter Final- those were also the first time that Makarova had played Quarter Finals in Grand Slam events as a Singles player and nerves could rightly have played a part in the results.
Since then, Makarova has reached two more Quarter Finals at Slam events, while breaking through the barrier by making it to the US Open Semi Final last September and I expect that to help her in this one. On the other hand, she is going up a fierce competitor in Maria Sharapova who is playing very well to open the 2015 season and I think she will still hold the mental edge in the match.
Makarova will have to serve well if she is going to give Sharapova all she can handle, but I do think she is potentially the more nervous of the two players. The problem I see for Makarova is that she can get a little down on herself when things are not going right and that showed in her heavy defeats at the Slam events last season.
Sharapova looks a player that won't give up when it isn't quite going the way she anticipated and I think the more experienced player comes through after taking a tough first set. This has the feel of a 64, 62 kind of win for Sharapova and I like her to cover the games.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Madison Keys: Serena Williams seemed to be suffering from a pretty strong cold in her interview after a dominating win over Dominika Cibulkova on Wednesday and it will be interesting to see if she has recovered from that or perhaps gotten worse.
On the other hand, Madison Keys overcame a problem with her left thigh in the middle of her match against Venus Williams and recovered two breaks of serve in the final set to come through against the older Williams sister. Now how Keys has recovered from that problem in the twenty-four hours she has had will be another important factor that can be tough to determine.
You have to feel there is added motivation for Serena Williams knowing that Venus was beaten by this opponent in the last Round. I have not got any conclusive evidence that she raises her game in this circumstance, but even reaching the level of her win over Cibulkova will make Serena Williams a strong favourite to overcome Madison Keys in this one.
Both players will look to dominate behind heavy first serves, but I think the movement and any limitations that Keys has will also play a part in the match. If she can't get the same pop on serve, Serena will get a chance to play first strike tennis which may enable her to dictate the tempo of the match.
I have a lot of time for what Keys can achieve, especially with the experience of Lindsey Davenport in her corner, but I don't believe the future will begin today and it will be the two veterans of the WTA Tour competing in the Final on Saturday. This feels another match that could potentially be tight in the first set and then dominated by the more experienced player in the second set as Serena Williams goes through 64, 62.
Andy Murray win 3-1 v Tomas Berdych: This match has a couple of fascinating angles that brings added intrigue, if that is possible, to a Grand Slam Semi Final.
Tomas Berdych has been in great form and dismissed the challenge of Rafael Nadal without too many problems, which was a surprise considering he had lost 17 in a row to the Spaniard prior to the Quarter Final.
He also has Daniel Vallverdu in his box, a man that was a part of Andy Murray's team up until the end of the 2014 season and who has been described as knowing Murray's game better than anyone else by the Brit himself.
Vallverdu will know the weaknesses Murray brings to the court, but I think Murray will benefit from knowing exactly what is thought of Tomas Berdych, even if he hasn't faced the Czech player since August 2013. That is surprising considering these two players are amongst the best on the ATP Tour, while it is Berdych who has won 6 of the 10 previous matches including the last 2 in a row.
That last win came on the hard courts of Cincinnati, which snapped a 3 match winning run for Murray on the hard courts against Berdych, but was also just six weeks after Murray had won Wimbledon and taken a huge burden off of his shoulders. Murray has been playing well enough here in Australia to show he is back to being a threat to win a Grand Slam title, although he is yet to have really been tested to the point that Berdcyh will.
Grigor Dimitrov wasn't playing as well as Berdych is when he lost to Murray in four sets, but I do think the British Number 1 is also playing at a very high level. I expect him to better at getting a length on the return of serves than Nadal was and Murray has also been serving fairly effectively for much of the tournament.
With the Berdych game working as well as it is, I would be surprised if this is a straight sets match, even if I did say the same about the Kei Nishikori-Stan Wawrinka Quarter Final match on Wednesday. I expect a lot of quality tennis to be on display, but with Andy Murray getting through to his fourth Final in Australia.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 @ 4.33 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 32-21, + 21.13 Units (101 Units Staked, + 20.92 % Yield)
Tuesday, 27 January 2015
Australian Open Day 10 Picks 2015 (January 28th)
I am still stunned by the nature of the beating that Tomas Berdych handed out to Rafael Nadal on Tuesday, but I am still not convinced that it didn't have more to do with how poorly Nadal played rather than the brilliance of Berdych.
I would be surprised if he has as easy a day in the office when he faces Andy Murray in the Semi Final, despite Murray saying that Berdych should be the favourite because of what Daniel Vallverdu will bring to the table for the Czech player. More important could be the fact that Berdych has won the last two matches against Murray, including on the hard courts of Cincinnati, although the last of those was in 2013.
For now, the main talking points of the day at the Australian Open will be completing the Semi Final line up and the potential for an all-Williams Semi Final being put in place. Neither Venus nor Serena have an easy Quarter Final to get through before the match of the day takes place between Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka.
Novak Djokovic is going to be the clear favourite to win his Quarter Final against Milos Raonic and now will also be a strong favourite to win the title here, but he won't want to overlook anything at the moment. The fact of the matter is that Djokovic has to beat Raonic and then faces one of the two players who beat him in Grand Slam events last season in the Semi Final.
Stan Wawrinka win 3-1 v Kei Nishikori: This looks a quality match in the making and I can understand why Kei Nishikori was set as the favourite to overcome the defending Champion Stan Wawrinka.
However, I actually think the heavier shot is going to come from Wawrinka's side of the court, especially when it comes to sorting out the serve and that can help the Swiss Number 2 to overcome Nishikori.
They played a special match at the US Open and Nishikori has admitted this has the feel of a 'home' Grand Slam for him with the support he has been receiving. I love the style the Japanese star plays with and I think he can give Wawrinka plenty of problems with his return and ability to move the latter around the court.
That should ensure this is anything but a straight forward win for any of the two players with Wawrinka looking to play first strike tennis behind the first serve and also attacking the Nishikori serve which is perhaps the weakest shot in the Japanese player's arsenal.
I can see there being a vital tie-breaker in the middle of the match that will determine the outcome of this match and perhaps lead to a 63, 46, 76, 64 win for Wawrinka in the underdog role.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: I think there are going to be a lot of people ready to back Dominika Cibulkova to surprise Serena Williams in this Quarter Final considering the Slovakian's form in this tournament and the fact she reached the Final twelve months ago.
However, I think Williams has had a couple of scares in the tournament where she could have been knocked out of the tournament and she should have refocused enough in this one. As solid as Cibulkova has been off the ground, the serve could be under immense pressure from the power that Serena Williams will be bringing to the table and I think it will be Williams who gets the first strike tennis in this one.
If she can serve better in the first set than she has in her last two matches, Williams should be able to keep Cibulkova at bay and not allow the latter to dictate the rallies and get her going from side to side. By doing that, this should be a little more routine than her last two matches and Williams should be too strong for Cibulkova who falls short of her performance from last season.
As long as Williams doesn't make a slow start, this has all the makings of a 63, 62 win for the Number 1 player in the World Rankings.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka Win 3-1 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 31-20, + 20.23 Units (98 Units Staked, + 20.64% Yield)
I would be surprised if he has as easy a day in the office when he faces Andy Murray in the Semi Final, despite Murray saying that Berdych should be the favourite because of what Daniel Vallverdu will bring to the table for the Czech player. More important could be the fact that Berdych has won the last two matches against Murray, including on the hard courts of Cincinnati, although the last of those was in 2013.
For now, the main talking points of the day at the Australian Open will be completing the Semi Final line up and the potential for an all-Williams Semi Final being put in place. Neither Venus nor Serena have an easy Quarter Final to get through before the match of the day takes place between Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka.
Novak Djokovic is going to be the clear favourite to win his Quarter Final against Milos Raonic and now will also be a strong favourite to win the title here, but he won't want to overlook anything at the moment. The fact of the matter is that Djokovic has to beat Raonic and then faces one of the two players who beat him in Grand Slam events last season in the Semi Final.
Stan Wawrinka win 3-1 v Kei Nishikori: This looks a quality match in the making and I can understand why Kei Nishikori was set as the favourite to overcome the defending Champion Stan Wawrinka.
However, I actually think the heavier shot is going to come from Wawrinka's side of the court, especially when it comes to sorting out the serve and that can help the Swiss Number 2 to overcome Nishikori.
They played a special match at the US Open and Nishikori has admitted this has the feel of a 'home' Grand Slam for him with the support he has been receiving. I love the style the Japanese star plays with and I think he can give Wawrinka plenty of problems with his return and ability to move the latter around the court.
That should ensure this is anything but a straight forward win for any of the two players with Wawrinka looking to play first strike tennis behind the first serve and also attacking the Nishikori serve which is perhaps the weakest shot in the Japanese player's arsenal.
I can see there being a vital tie-breaker in the middle of the match that will determine the outcome of this match and perhaps lead to a 63, 46, 76, 64 win for Wawrinka in the underdog role.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: I think there are going to be a lot of people ready to back Dominika Cibulkova to surprise Serena Williams in this Quarter Final considering the Slovakian's form in this tournament and the fact she reached the Final twelve months ago.
However, I think Williams has had a couple of scares in the tournament where she could have been knocked out of the tournament and she should have refocused enough in this one. As solid as Cibulkova has been off the ground, the serve could be under immense pressure from the power that Serena Williams will be bringing to the table and I think it will be Williams who gets the first strike tennis in this one.
If she can serve better in the first set than she has in her last two matches, Williams should be able to keep Cibulkova at bay and not allow the latter to dictate the rallies and get her going from side to side. By doing that, this should be a little more routine than her last two matches and Williams should be too strong for Cibulkova who falls short of her performance from last season.
As long as Williams doesn't make a slow start, this has all the makings of a 63, 62 win for the Number 1 player in the World Rankings.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka Win 3-1 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 31-20, + 20.23 Units (98 Units Staked, + 20.64% Yield)
Monday, 26 January 2015
Australian Open Day 9 Picks 2015 (January 27th)
We have reached the Quarter Finals in both men's and women's events at the Australian Open as the first Grand Slam tournament of the 2015 season rapidly reaches the business end of the week.
In all honesty, I think the line up for the last eight is intriguing in both draws and that should mean a fun couple of days of tennis beginning with the four matches from the bottom half of the draws being played on Tuesday. We will start with the two women's Quarter Finals being played back to back, while the night session is unsurprisingly set for home hope Nick Kyrgios taking on Andy Murray.
Yesterday was a mixed bag for the picks, but the tournament remains in a very healthy state and I am close to being vindicated for missing the first two weeks of the season to begin the picks from the Australian Open. There are still a few days to go so getting 'cocky' about things is a sure-fire way to fall flat on your face.
I do think both Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova are the right favourites in the women's Quarter Finals and expect them to be too strong for Ekaterina Makarova and Eugenie Bouchard respectively. However, the layers have got both priced up very short and the games are perhaps just one too high for me to be confident with the underdogs both receiving a 4.5 game head-start on the handicaps.
However, I do like the two men's favourites in their respective Quarter Finals.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Tomas Berdych: I have picked Rafael Nadal as one of the my two outright picks in the men's draw to win this Grand Slam event and I do think the confidence has returned to the Spaniard after an awkward beginning to the event. So you can imagine my surprise that the layers are not as convinced as me by making Rafael Nadal a pretty short favourite to beat Tomas Berdych.
This is a huge mental challenge for Berdych and there is no other way to look at it- no matter how well Berdych has been playing, and he has been playing very well, he has lost to Nadal 16 times in a row and that is not including one match when he was forced to retire.
That is a huge burden to have to overcome and I think Berdych will feel that pressure in this match, especially if Nadal can stick with him early and show that he has back to something like his best. This could be the first time that one player has won 18 straight times against another on the Tour, which will be playing on Berdych's mind and I don't believe he will display enough quality tennis to win a best of five against Nadal.
Nadal and Berdych had a very close four set match here in Australia three years ago and there is every chance this will go at least four again. But when it is all said and done, I think Nadal comes through with a 64, 36, 63, 76 win.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: There is a lot of hype surrounding the young Australian Nick Kyrgios as he reached another Grand Slam Quarter Final which is going to see him enter the top 40 in the World Rankings. I don't really care whether people think he is 'cocky' and that Kyrgios seems to get up some people's noses, because I think characters like this bring new interest in a sport and it can only be good for tennis.
However, I was very much hoping the hype would mean that the layers would perhaps over-estimate his chances against Andy Murray who has been playing at a very high level through the tournament. It looks like his back issues of 2014 are now very much in the past and Murray is a threat to win this Slam for the first time.
Murray may have said he is not worrying about 'breaking anyone's heart' as he looks to concentrate on the task at hand and I think his experience of playing matches of this magnitude in hostile environments will be key to him progressing. Additionally, Murray has the ability to get a lot of balls back in play and expose some of the issues that Kyrgios' game still needs to develop and I can see him frustrating his younger opponent who wants to play 'highlight reel' tennis on every point.
As long as Murray serves well himself, he should keep Kyrgios at bay in this one and I believe he comes through with a 76, 62, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 30-19, + 20.63 Units (94 Units Staked, + 21.95% Yield)
In all honesty, I think the line up for the last eight is intriguing in both draws and that should mean a fun couple of days of tennis beginning with the four matches from the bottom half of the draws being played on Tuesday. We will start with the two women's Quarter Finals being played back to back, while the night session is unsurprisingly set for home hope Nick Kyrgios taking on Andy Murray.
Yesterday was a mixed bag for the picks, but the tournament remains in a very healthy state and I am close to being vindicated for missing the first two weeks of the season to begin the picks from the Australian Open. There are still a few days to go so getting 'cocky' about things is a sure-fire way to fall flat on your face.
I do think both Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova are the right favourites in the women's Quarter Finals and expect them to be too strong for Ekaterina Makarova and Eugenie Bouchard respectively. However, the layers have got both priced up very short and the games are perhaps just one too high for me to be confident with the underdogs both receiving a 4.5 game head-start on the handicaps.
However, I do like the two men's favourites in their respective Quarter Finals.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Tomas Berdych: I have picked Rafael Nadal as one of the my two outright picks in the men's draw to win this Grand Slam event and I do think the confidence has returned to the Spaniard after an awkward beginning to the event. So you can imagine my surprise that the layers are not as convinced as me by making Rafael Nadal a pretty short favourite to beat Tomas Berdych.
This is a huge mental challenge for Berdych and there is no other way to look at it- no matter how well Berdych has been playing, and he has been playing very well, he has lost to Nadal 16 times in a row and that is not including one match when he was forced to retire.
That is a huge burden to have to overcome and I think Berdych will feel that pressure in this match, especially if Nadal can stick with him early and show that he has back to something like his best. This could be the first time that one player has won 18 straight times against another on the Tour, which will be playing on Berdych's mind and I don't believe he will display enough quality tennis to win a best of five against Nadal.
Nadal and Berdych had a very close four set match here in Australia three years ago and there is every chance this will go at least four again. But when it is all said and done, I think Nadal comes through with a 64, 36, 63, 76 win.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: There is a lot of hype surrounding the young Australian Nick Kyrgios as he reached another Grand Slam Quarter Final which is going to see him enter the top 40 in the World Rankings. I don't really care whether people think he is 'cocky' and that Kyrgios seems to get up some people's noses, because I think characters like this bring new interest in a sport and it can only be good for tennis.
However, I was very much hoping the hype would mean that the layers would perhaps over-estimate his chances against Andy Murray who has been playing at a very high level through the tournament. It looks like his back issues of 2014 are now very much in the past and Murray is a threat to win this Slam for the first time.
Murray may have said he is not worrying about 'breaking anyone's heart' as he looks to concentrate on the task at hand and I think his experience of playing matches of this magnitude in hostile environments will be key to him progressing. Additionally, Murray has the ability to get a lot of balls back in play and expose some of the issues that Kyrgios' game still needs to develop and I can see him frustrating his younger opponent who wants to play 'highlight reel' tennis on every point.
As long as Murray serves well himself, he should keep Kyrgios at bay in this one and I believe he comes through with a 76, 62, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 30-19, + 20.63 Units (94 Units Staked, + 21.95% Yield)
Sunday, 25 January 2015
Australian Open Day 8 Picks 2015 (January 26th)
The Quarter Finals at the Australian Open have already set four intriguing matches across the men's and women's events, but another four matches will be set today and I have the feeling those will be 'good looking' ones too.
The business end of Grand Slam tournaments will generally provide plenty of drama and it is good to see the Australian Open has been leading up to these kind of matches into the second week of the event. We have already had some surprises, but generally the best players have got through and that is always a benefit to tournament organisers.
Rafael Nadal and Simona Halep making it through to the Quarter Finals also means three of the four outright picks remain very much in contention to win the respective tournaments. The daily picks also had a very good first week and it was another positive day yesterday as I hope to wrap up the week with positive results.
Kei Nishikori win 3-1 v David Ferrer: These two players both work extremely hard on the court and expect to see some long rallies with some exceptional tennis mixed in to boot.
I have always had a lot of respect for David Ferrer, but I think Kei Nishikori is a much improved player over the last twelve months with his run to the US Open Final a real confidence boost and a vindication for the hard work he puts in.
The feeling is that Ferrer has just dropped from the heights of a couple of years ago, even if he did win the title in Doha to open the season, and I think Nishikori will just have too much for him. However, Nishikori's serve could still do with some work and I do think Ferrer will fashion enough chances to extend this to four sets.
Nishikori has won 4 in a row against Ferrer, but he dropped a set in every one of those matches and I think he will likely do that in this one before coming through a tough Fourth Round match.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Gilles Muller: After coming through the first three Rounds fairly comfortably, Novak Djokovic should be feeling better in the second week now that he is over his illness.
This isn't the easiest of matches against a big-serving Gilles Muller who is playing very well at the moment, but Djokovic is the best returner on the Tour and I expect he will put enough pressure on Muller. Djokovic should create chances once he gets his eye in on the return and I think that will help him ease through to the Quarter Finals.
Djokovic was pushed by Fernando Verdasco in the Third Round, but I think that just focuses him a little more in this one and he will work through a 75, 63, 63 win.
Garbine Muguruza + 1.5 sets v Serena Williams: Some of the mistakes that Garbine Muguruza made in the last Round against Timea Bacsinszky won't be able to be ignored against someone of the quality of Serena Williams, but I also think the latter has been struggling through the first week of the tournament.
Williams has been able to recover from her slow starts in the first three matches at the Australian Open, but she was perhaps a little fortunate to not have bumped into someone like Muguruza earlier in the event.
The loss at the French Open to this opponent last season will not have been forgotten by Williams which will make her a more dangerous player in this one with the added focus. However, I can't ignore the early struggles she has had in 2015 and I think Muguruza can give Williams some real problems in this one.
I am not sure if Muguruza will be able to play well enough for long enough to beat Serena, but taking a set at odds against looks a big price.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Madison Brengle: The big question will be whether Madison Keys can back up her very impressive win over Petra Kvitova in the Third Round and I think she will with the advice being given to her by Lindsey Davenport.
Madison Brengle came through her Third Round match thanks in part to the mistakes made by CoCo Vandeweghe and I don't think Keys is going to be as generous as her compatriot was a couple of days ago.
The serve is definitely favouring Keys and, if she can look after that element of her game, I think that will help her come through this match in fairly routine fashion. Brengle played well enough over the last couple of weeks to reach the Final in Hobart and also win three matches here, but I don't believe she has a very big game that can't be exposed by someone like Keys.
This just feels like a 63, 63 kind of match that Keys should win.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Venus Williams: Venus Williams had to weather an Italian storm in the form of Camila Giorgi in the last Round, but this is going to be a different kind of match for her to figure out. Agnieszka Radwanska isn't blessed with the same firepower as Giorgi, but she has the variation and defensive skills to extract errors from Williams and also has won the last three matches against Venus without dropping a set.
Radwanska has been very comfortable so far at the Australian Open and she has also been displaying a little more pop on her serve which may make things a little easier for her, although I have to say that Venus Williams has played well too.
The problem for Venus will be that she shouldn't be given a lot of unforced errors that Giorgi offered up in the last Round and Radwanska has been playing with a lot of confidence. If Williams serves well this could be a competitive match, but she will have to be a lot better than she was against Giorgi and I think Radwanska comes through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori Win 3-1 @ 4.20 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.92 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 28-16, + 21.47 Units (85 Units Staked, + 25.26% Yield)
Saturday, 24 January 2015
Australian Open Day 7 Picks 2015 (January 25th)
I have a party to attend to on Saturday which means I don't have time for a full write up for the first of the Fourth Round matches that will take place at the Australian Open on Sunday.
One disappointment from the Friday was the demise of Petra Kvitova from the woman's draw, which is the first of the four outright picks that has exited the tournament. I'm sure she would have been a lot more disappointed than I am, especially with the chance to lay a marker for the 2015 season after her exit to the Madison Keys in the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Eugenie Bouchard - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 24-15, + 14.28 Units (77 Units Staked, + 18.55% Yield)
One disappointment from the Friday was the demise of Petra Kvitova from the woman's draw, which is the first of the four outright picks that has exited the tournament. I'm sure she would have been a lot more disappointed than I am, especially with the chance to lay a marker for the 2015 season after her exit to the Madison Keys in the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Eugenie Bouchard - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 24-15, + 14.28 Units (77 Units Staked, + 18.55% Yield)
Friday, 23 January 2015
Australian Open Day 6 Picks 2015 (January 24th)
Where else can you begin at the Australian Open than with the exit of Roger Federer in the Third Round? After an under-par performance against Simone Bolelli, especially early in that Second Round match, most would have expected Federer to come out and dominate against Andreas Seppi, the Italian he had beaten ten times in a row and had only dropped one set against.
It was another slow start from Federer to drop the first set, but it looked to be a momentum turner when he recovered a break of serve not once, but twice in the second set. The second break of serve had been handed to Seppi when Federer inexplicably left a ball that he could have comfortably smashed for a winner which subsequently caught the sideline to give Seppi the 5-4 advantage.
Once that set went into a tie-breaker, you would have had to feel Federer was the more likely winner, but his serve was off for much of the day and another unforced error cost him that set and ultimately was going to cost him the match.
There was signs of life in a third set captured by the former World Number 1, but Seppi sealed the match in another tie-breaker which was capped off by the most stunning of winners.
This is going to lead to more questions about Federer and whether he has another Grand Slam in him, although I ruled that out last season when you could see he didn't quite have enough to live with the best players over a best of five set match. I still think Federer is a threat at every Masters event that isn't played on the clay courts and the right draw at Wimbledon could see him get very close to an 18th Grand Slam title if he is going to achieve that anywhere.
I just also think there will be a few more days like Thursday when Federer would formerly have dismissed challengers who are now able to perhaps sense an upset if they can make the match competitive early. Federer still has a lot to offer the Tour, but winning seven best of five set matches may not be there any more.
The Federer story will have dominated the headlines at the Australian Open after the likes of Andy Murray, Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal all won in dominating fashion to move into the second week of the tournament. Grigor Dimitrov played arguably one of his worst matches over the last twelve months, but still had enough to see off Marcos Baghdatis, while another impressive winner was Tomas Berdych who dominated Victor Troicki in a straight sets win.
With the way the results have been coming through, the Australian Open looks to have a very good second week lined up for the fans. Most will already be anticipating the Grigor Dimitrov-Andy Murray Fourth Round match, while Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic will ensure some lively atmospheres as the home crowd finally have some new blood to back.
The Fourth Round line up will be completed on Saturday and the first Grand Slam of the 2015 season is certainly laying down a very strong marker for the standard we may expect to see.
It was the first losing day of the tournament for the picks as some bad luck mixed with some bad picks resulted in a poor day in the office. However, I am still happy with the way the first week has gone (as long as it is wrapped up nicely on Day 6) and the outright picks are all still alive despite a huge number of Seeds dropping from both draws.
The exit of Roger Federer does open up the bottom half of the draw for someone like Rafael Nadal, although the likes of Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov will believe the winner of that match can go all the way to the Final. Novak Djokovic will get his first test of the tournament on Saturday against Fernando Verdasco, while Simona Halep has eased her way through to the Fourth Round.
Hopefully Petra Kvitova can make it four for four from the outright picks that are still running when the second week of the Australian Open gets going on Sunday.
Stan Wawrinka - 7.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: There are some concerns about a potential problem with the Stan Wawrinka elbow, but he has had a chance to rest it with this Third Round match in mind and I think the match up is a potential good one for him.
I respect what Jarkko Nieminen has done in his career as he has given some of the best players some real problems on the court, but age is catching up with him and the serve is still something of a liability, especially the second serve.
The Finn will be able to cause some problems on the Wawrinka serve, while being left-handed gives Nieminen another advantage, but the defending Champion won't be easily rattled and I think he will be able to dominate enough of the points to record a 75, 63, 63 win.
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 games v Steve Johnson: Kei Nishikori had to dig deep to see off Ivan Dodig in the Second Round and his experiences at the US Open should stand him in good stead in what is the nearest thing to a home Grand Slam for the Japanese star.
Dodig is a come forward attacking player that is problematic if a player is not on form, but Steve Johnson should play a match that is much more balanced and allows Nishikori to get into rhythm.
There will be times that Nishikori will be under pressure on his own serve, but his return game should also produce chances on the Johnson serve and that may eventually wear down the American. Johnson served well in his loss to Nishikori earlier in the season, but the courts here are playing slow enough for Nishikori to create more opportunities and I like him to win this one 63, 64, 64.
David Ferrer win 3-1 v Gilles Simon: David Ferrer and Gilles Simon will both look back at their careers and see some similarities in their style of play as well as the fact that both have probably overachieved with the talent they have been given.
This match should feature a lot of long rallies as neither player has the dominant serve that sets up a lot of easy points, while breaks of serve could also be common because of that issue.
It is a repeat of a match from the US Open that Simon won in four sets and the Frenchman has won their only 2 outdoor hard court matches which will give him the mental belief that he can win this match too.
I expect it to be tight and a few points here and there will make all the difference in deciding who wins and loses, but I think Ferrer can outwork Simon this time as he was not himself at Flushing Meadows last September. However, this is unlikely to be a straight sets win and I like Ferrer coming through 64, 46, 76, 63.
Venus Williams - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: The Italian Camila Giorgi has made an impact in a few Grand Slam tournaments over the last eighteen months and has already beaten one of the Seeded players in this Australian Open draw.
However, beating Venus Williams, who is playing with the swagger and belief of a few seasons ago, is a completely different task and I think Giorgi is up against it when facing the Auckland Champion.
Giorgi is a little hit and miss on the tennis court, but she is going to be faced with some dominating power on the other side of the court and may be rushed into making mistakes. Williams will have to serve well to make sure she remains in control of the match, but her ability to get up to the net and put away volleys gives her the edge in this match.
I also think Giorgi is a player that has struggled with her consistency and may just find Venus Williams a step too high at this moment and I like the veteran American to come through 75, 63.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I don't think it is missing the point by saying that Serena Williams has not been at her best so far at the Australian Open and that someone like Elina Svitolina definitely has the tools to make this a very competitive Third Round match for the American.
However, Svitolina is still someone that can struggle against the very best players on the Tour and Serena Williams remains amongst that elite group on the WTA Tour.
Svitolina had to really dig deep to beat Nicole Gibbs in the last Round and this is also a player that has been beaten by Maria Sharapova convincingly earlier this season. Some may argue that Sharapova is in far better form than Serena Williams, but the latter has already secured two bagels in the tournament and I think she can go up a gear or two when she needs to which should help her pull away in this match too.
When it is all said and done, I do expect Williams to record a 64, 61 win and move through to the second week without really being tested for a full match.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova: Over the last nine months or so, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova has continuously shown she belongs at this stage of Grand Slam tournaments and is a threat to go even further. She reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon which would have given the Czech player a lot of confidence in her game, but this is a very tough match up for her.
Victoria Azarenka loves playing at Melbourne Park and she has already come through two tough matches against Sloane Stephens and Caroline Wozniacki without dropping a set and that should have her battle hardened for this match.
She also dismissed Zahlavova Strycova in straight sets here last season and Azarenka looks a player perfectly at peace with what she wants to achieve in the 2015 season. There is a real stubborn streak in the former Champion here and I think Azarenka is ready to make a concerted challenge here with those two wins under her belt.
Azarenka has the strut back in her stride which should help her come through this tough match and I like her to eventually prevail 63, 63.
CoCo Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: CoCo Vandeweghe was so impressive in her Second Round win over Sam Stosur that I think it will have given her enough confidence to beat her compatriot Madison Brengle in this Third Round match.
Brengle has played well in her first two matches here, but she is coming in off a long week in Hobart when she fell short against Heather Watson in the Final and you have to think that all that tennis will eventually also have an impact on her game.
It has been a very good start to the 2015 season for Brengle, but the younger American has really begun to string together some consistency in her game. Vandeweghe can use her power to try and dominate Brengle in this match and she has won the last two matches against Brengle without dropping a set.
As long as there isn't a negative reaction to beating a home favourite, Vendeweghe comes through 64, 64 for me.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 @ 4.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Venus Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
CoCo Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 19-13, + 8.04 Units (64 Units Staked, + 12.56% Yield)
It was another slow start from Federer to drop the first set, but it looked to be a momentum turner when he recovered a break of serve not once, but twice in the second set. The second break of serve had been handed to Seppi when Federer inexplicably left a ball that he could have comfortably smashed for a winner which subsequently caught the sideline to give Seppi the 5-4 advantage.
Once that set went into a tie-breaker, you would have had to feel Federer was the more likely winner, but his serve was off for much of the day and another unforced error cost him that set and ultimately was going to cost him the match.
There was signs of life in a third set captured by the former World Number 1, but Seppi sealed the match in another tie-breaker which was capped off by the most stunning of winners.
This is going to lead to more questions about Federer and whether he has another Grand Slam in him, although I ruled that out last season when you could see he didn't quite have enough to live with the best players over a best of five set match. I still think Federer is a threat at every Masters event that isn't played on the clay courts and the right draw at Wimbledon could see him get very close to an 18th Grand Slam title if he is going to achieve that anywhere.
I just also think there will be a few more days like Thursday when Federer would formerly have dismissed challengers who are now able to perhaps sense an upset if they can make the match competitive early. Federer still has a lot to offer the Tour, but winning seven best of five set matches may not be there any more.
The Federer story will have dominated the headlines at the Australian Open after the likes of Andy Murray, Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal all won in dominating fashion to move into the second week of the tournament. Grigor Dimitrov played arguably one of his worst matches over the last twelve months, but still had enough to see off Marcos Baghdatis, while another impressive winner was Tomas Berdych who dominated Victor Troicki in a straight sets win.
With the way the results have been coming through, the Australian Open looks to have a very good second week lined up for the fans. Most will already be anticipating the Grigor Dimitrov-Andy Murray Fourth Round match, while Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic will ensure some lively atmospheres as the home crowd finally have some new blood to back.
The Fourth Round line up will be completed on Saturday and the first Grand Slam of the 2015 season is certainly laying down a very strong marker for the standard we may expect to see.
It was the first losing day of the tournament for the picks as some bad luck mixed with some bad picks resulted in a poor day in the office. However, I am still happy with the way the first week has gone (as long as it is wrapped up nicely on Day 6) and the outright picks are all still alive despite a huge number of Seeds dropping from both draws.
The exit of Roger Federer does open up the bottom half of the draw for someone like Rafael Nadal, although the likes of Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov will believe the winner of that match can go all the way to the Final. Novak Djokovic will get his first test of the tournament on Saturday against Fernando Verdasco, while Simona Halep has eased her way through to the Fourth Round.
Hopefully Petra Kvitova can make it four for four from the outright picks that are still running when the second week of the Australian Open gets going on Sunday.
Stan Wawrinka - 7.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: There are some concerns about a potential problem with the Stan Wawrinka elbow, but he has had a chance to rest it with this Third Round match in mind and I think the match up is a potential good one for him.
I respect what Jarkko Nieminen has done in his career as he has given some of the best players some real problems on the court, but age is catching up with him and the serve is still something of a liability, especially the second serve.
The Finn will be able to cause some problems on the Wawrinka serve, while being left-handed gives Nieminen another advantage, but the defending Champion won't be easily rattled and I think he will be able to dominate enough of the points to record a 75, 63, 63 win.
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 games v Steve Johnson: Kei Nishikori had to dig deep to see off Ivan Dodig in the Second Round and his experiences at the US Open should stand him in good stead in what is the nearest thing to a home Grand Slam for the Japanese star.
Dodig is a come forward attacking player that is problematic if a player is not on form, but Steve Johnson should play a match that is much more balanced and allows Nishikori to get into rhythm.
There will be times that Nishikori will be under pressure on his own serve, but his return game should also produce chances on the Johnson serve and that may eventually wear down the American. Johnson served well in his loss to Nishikori earlier in the season, but the courts here are playing slow enough for Nishikori to create more opportunities and I like him to win this one 63, 64, 64.
David Ferrer win 3-1 v Gilles Simon: David Ferrer and Gilles Simon will both look back at their careers and see some similarities in their style of play as well as the fact that both have probably overachieved with the talent they have been given.
This match should feature a lot of long rallies as neither player has the dominant serve that sets up a lot of easy points, while breaks of serve could also be common because of that issue.
It is a repeat of a match from the US Open that Simon won in four sets and the Frenchman has won their only 2 outdoor hard court matches which will give him the mental belief that he can win this match too.
I expect it to be tight and a few points here and there will make all the difference in deciding who wins and loses, but I think Ferrer can outwork Simon this time as he was not himself at Flushing Meadows last September. However, this is unlikely to be a straight sets win and I like Ferrer coming through 64, 46, 76, 63.
Venus Williams - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: The Italian Camila Giorgi has made an impact in a few Grand Slam tournaments over the last eighteen months and has already beaten one of the Seeded players in this Australian Open draw.
However, beating Venus Williams, who is playing with the swagger and belief of a few seasons ago, is a completely different task and I think Giorgi is up against it when facing the Auckland Champion.
Giorgi is a little hit and miss on the tennis court, but she is going to be faced with some dominating power on the other side of the court and may be rushed into making mistakes. Williams will have to serve well to make sure she remains in control of the match, but her ability to get up to the net and put away volleys gives her the edge in this match.
I also think Giorgi is a player that has struggled with her consistency and may just find Venus Williams a step too high at this moment and I like the veteran American to come through 75, 63.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I don't think it is missing the point by saying that Serena Williams has not been at her best so far at the Australian Open and that someone like Elina Svitolina definitely has the tools to make this a very competitive Third Round match for the American.
However, Svitolina is still someone that can struggle against the very best players on the Tour and Serena Williams remains amongst that elite group on the WTA Tour.
Svitolina had to really dig deep to beat Nicole Gibbs in the last Round and this is also a player that has been beaten by Maria Sharapova convincingly earlier this season. Some may argue that Sharapova is in far better form than Serena Williams, but the latter has already secured two bagels in the tournament and I think she can go up a gear or two when she needs to which should help her pull away in this match too.
When it is all said and done, I do expect Williams to record a 64, 61 win and move through to the second week without really being tested for a full match.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova: Over the last nine months or so, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova has continuously shown she belongs at this stage of Grand Slam tournaments and is a threat to go even further. She reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon which would have given the Czech player a lot of confidence in her game, but this is a very tough match up for her.
Victoria Azarenka loves playing at Melbourne Park and she has already come through two tough matches against Sloane Stephens and Caroline Wozniacki without dropping a set and that should have her battle hardened for this match.
She also dismissed Zahlavova Strycova in straight sets here last season and Azarenka looks a player perfectly at peace with what she wants to achieve in the 2015 season. There is a real stubborn streak in the former Champion here and I think Azarenka is ready to make a concerted challenge here with those two wins under her belt.
Azarenka has the strut back in her stride which should help her come through this tough match and I like her to eventually prevail 63, 63.
CoCo Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: CoCo Vandeweghe was so impressive in her Second Round win over Sam Stosur that I think it will have given her enough confidence to beat her compatriot Madison Brengle in this Third Round match.
Brengle has played well in her first two matches here, but she is coming in off a long week in Hobart when she fell short against Heather Watson in the Final and you have to think that all that tennis will eventually also have an impact on her game.
It has been a very good start to the 2015 season for Brengle, but the younger American has really begun to string together some consistency in her game. Vandeweghe can use her power to try and dominate Brengle in this match and she has won the last two matches against Brengle without dropping a set.
As long as there isn't a negative reaction to beating a home favourite, Vendeweghe comes through 64, 64 for me.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 @ 4.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Venus Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
CoCo Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 19-13, + 8.04 Units (64 Units Staked, + 12.56% Yield)
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