For the neutrals that may have had tickets for the Indian Wells Finals Day today, seeing Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic come through their Semi Finals on Saturday is perhaps the perfect way to end the tournament here in 2014.
Of course the event is taking place in America so a number of fans would have loved to have seen John Isner find a way through to his second Final here in three years, but the quality of tennis we are likely to see this evening is exactly what the tournament deserves as an ending.
It has been a strange couple of weeks in California with a number of surprise results that can crop up from time to time, but two of the leading contenders in the men's game will be contesting the Final. The women's event always looked much more open with the likes of Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka returning from long lay-offs and perhaps not having the practice they needed, while Serena Williams has skipped the event for over ten years.
Azarenka was clearly not quite right and it was no surprise that she has decided to withdraw from the event in Miami that immediately follows this one and that means another slip in the Rankings for the former World Number 1. In my opinion, Azarenka remains the most consistent threat to prevent Serena Williams winning any tournament they both enter, although it is still going to be interesting to see how the American responds to her early exit at the Australian Open and the disappointing loss in Dubai.
The draws for the tournament in Miami are going to be released on Sunday and Monday for the women's and men's events respectively and will kick off on Tuesday with the First Round action from the WTA Premier Event.
That should be another decent tournament and it is going to be interesting to see if the results from the event are a little more consistent than the surprises we saw in Indian Wells throughout the ten days here.
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Roger Federer: When they met in Dubai last month, I said it was arguably a more important match for Roger Federer than it was for Novak Djokovic and the feeling is the reverse this time around.
The match in Dubai was on the racquet of Novak Djokovic for a set and a half but he lost a bit of concentration and allowed Federer to dominate towards the end of the match and eventually win the title.
Djokovic was guilty of losing concentration in the win over John Isner yesterday too, but was fortunate he rolled through a third set comfortably despite serving for the match twice in the second set. Something like that will cost him the title at Indian Wells because Federer is playing arguably his best tennis since the start of the 2013 season.
The Swiss man has been serving well which has made his life that much easier, but he will be put under more pressure than either Alexandr Dolgopolov or Tommy Haas put on him with the return Djokovic possesses.
I can't imagine this being anything but another good match to watch between these two players, but I also feel Djokovic will be the one that comes out on top at the end of the contest.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 26-19, + 10.1 Units (90 Units Staked, + 11.22% Yield)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Sunday, 16 March 2014
Saturday, 15 March 2014
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2014 (March 15th)
I think Friday could only be described as a day of frustration for the picks as both women's Semi Finals seemed to be in the hands of the players I picked, but both made far too many mistakes in their bid to reach the Final.
Simona Halep might have been a touch too keen in her match having reached the biggest Semi Final of her young career, but she showed enough to think she could become a permanent fixture at the business end of the biggest tournaments. The Romanian moves up to the World Number 5 position at the end of the tournament and Halep deserves her place after another strong showing this week.
I was less impressed with the way Na Li was beaten considering all of the double faults she committed that virtually handed the momentum to Flavia Pennetta. I don't think it is a reach to say that Li was clearly the better player in the majority of the rallies, but she had the hiccups on serve and then made far too many other unforced errors during the course of the match.
It also meant my outright interest in the women's draw came to an end, but Novak Djokovic was much more dominant in his Quarter Final victory over Julien Benneteau. He remains the big favourite to win the tournament, but will have to avenge a loss to John Isner who beat him here two years ago, and also Roger Federer who knocked Djokovic out in Dubai if the Serb is to take home the title.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: It has been a very special week for Alexandr Dolgopolov who has shown the talent that so many people have talked about in his game. He has been guilty of perhaps overplaying at times and maybe not taking his tennis as seriously as he should do.
Dolgopolov has already beaten the World Number 1 this week and now has the chance to knock off the 17 time Grand Slam winner in Roger Federer, although the form of the Swiss man has been pretty impressive too.
2014 was supposed to be the last hurrah for Federer according to the media (and I also didn't think he would be doing what he has to this point), but a title in Dubai and a Semi Final here and at the Australian Open shows Federer is still capable of performing.
There will be chances to break in both directions in the match, but Federer looks a man on a mission this week and I think he will find a way to negate the awkward style of Dolgopolov and come through 63, 64.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v John Isner: When you play someone who serves as big as John Isner does, concentration is the key for the opponent and the acceptance that a number of points are going to fly past you without any thing you can do.
Novak Djokovic is one of the best returners in the game and he has shown that at times against Isner, but has struggled to see him off. It also puts a different type of pressure on Djokovic to make sure he doesn't make the mistakes when he is serving that allows Isner to break serve which can be devastating in a set.
There was some chances missed by Djokovic against the Julien Benneteau serve yesterday and he can't afford to allow those to slip against Isner, but I think he is focused and is going to prove too strong for the American.
The first set could easily end in a tie-break, but I will look for Djokovic to come through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 24-19, + 6.06 Units (86 Units Staked, + 7.05% Yield)
Simona Halep might have been a touch too keen in her match having reached the biggest Semi Final of her young career, but she showed enough to think she could become a permanent fixture at the business end of the biggest tournaments. The Romanian moves up to the World Number 5 position at the end of the tournament and Halep deserves her place after another strong showing this week.
I was less impressed with the way Na Li was beaten considering all of the double faults she committed that virtually handed the momentum to Flavia Pennetta. I don't think it is a reach to say that Li was clearly the better player in the majority of the rallies, but she had the hiccups on serve and then made far too many other unforced errors during the course of the match.
It also meant my outright interest in the women's draw came to an end, but Novak Djokovic was much more dominant in his Quarter Final victory over Julien Benneteau. He remains the big favourite to win the tournament, but will have to avenge a loss to John Isner who beat him here two years ago, and also Roger Federer who knocked Djokovic out in Dubai if the Serb is to take home the title.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: It has been a very special week for Alexandr Dolgopolov who has shown the talent that so many people have talked about in his game. He has been guilty of perhaps overplaying at times and maybe not taking his tennis as seriously as he should do.
Dolgopolov has already beaten the World Number 1 this week and now has the chance to knock off the 17 time Grand Slam winner in Roger Federer, although the form of the Swiss man has been pretty impressive too.
2014 was supposed to be the last hurrah for Federer according to the media (and I also didn't think he would be doing what he has to this point), but a title in Dubai and a Semi Final here and at the Australian Open shows Federer is still capable of performing.
There will be chances to break in both directions in the match, but Federer looks a man on a mission this week and I think he will find a way to negate the awkward style of Dolgopolov and come through 63, 64.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v John Isner: When you play someone who serves as big as John Isner does, concentration is the key for the opponent and the acceptance that a number of points are going to fly past you without any thing you can do.
Novak Djokovic is one of the best returners in the game and he has shown that at times against Isner, but has struggled to see him off. It also puts a different type of pressure on Djokovic to make sure he doesn't make the mistakes when he is serving that allows Isner to break serve which can be devastating in a set.
There was some chances missed by Djokovic against the Julien Benneteau serve yesterday and he can't afford to allow those to slip against Isner, but I think he is focused and is going to prove too strong for the American.
The first set could easily end in a tie-break, but I will look for Djokovic to come through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 24-19, + 6.06 Units (86 Units Staked, + 7.05% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks 2014 (March 15-16)
This looks like a very good weekend for football fans in the Premier League with plenty of big games that will have real effects at the top and bottom of the League table. We will begin to get an idea as to which teams won't have enough to survive and which teams will be fighting for a top four berth over the next couple of months.
Super Sunday is also one of the better ones of the season as we see the biggest game in English football followed by the North London derby and both of those games will have a big impact on the top four.
It is a pivotal time of the season now we are firmly in the grips of March and the next two weeks will really open things up at both ends of the table. Hopefully the picks can remain in a good place too after a decent start to the month and continue with the picks made for this weekend.
Hull City v Manchester City Pick: There are games against the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal to come later this month, but there is also a feeling that this game is all important for Manchester City as they look to find a way to reel Chelsea back in.
I know they have three games in hand, but everyone would rather have the points on the board and Chelsea have that nice 9 point cushion over the team that most still believe will be their closest contenders for the Premier League title. With the Blues having a tough game at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon, Manchester City will look to up the ante by winning this game and putting the ball back in the Chelsea court.
As well as Hull City have played at home, they have begun to show vulnerabilities and have particularly struggled against the teams in the top half of the table. Aside from the win over Liverpool, Hull have seen Manchester United, Southampton, Chelsea and Newcastle United collect three points from this stadium over the last few games.
The win in the FA Cup would have given the team confidence, and Manchester City did have the tough exertion of playing Barcelona on Wednesday while the home team has had a week to prepare for the game. That is the biggest worry for Manchester City, but I think the squad proved they are capable of playing the best teams despite the defeat in the Nou Camp and I expect them to earn the three points here.
Chelsea and Newcastle United won easily enough here, and I believe Manchester City will win this one by a couple of goals too.
Fulham v Newcastle United Pick: It has been an awful season for Fulham in terms of results, but as the only ground in the Premier League with a neutral section, I am sure those fans in those seats won't have been lacking for entertainment.
Defensive problems have meant there have been plenty of goals to enjoy at Craven Cottage and that has also seen 10 of their last 11 Premier League games here see at least three goals scored.
It is hard to ignore the statistics- Fulham have conceded at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 games at Craven Cottage and have twice conceded four goals in that stretch of games. Most of those have come against top sides, but Sunderland and Southampton have also hit at least three goals and neither of those would be considered hugely free-scoring teams.
Loic Remy is not set to be in the squad for Newcastle United which will take away some of their goalscoring powers, especially if Hatem Ben Arfa also misses out. However, Fulham defend so poorly at times that Newcastle will still likely have the chances to score the goals to win the game.
Newcastle United have also scored three at West Ham United and four at Hull City so can punish teams when they get on a roll and all the stats are pointing to this one going over 2.5 goals.
Recent history also points to goals with the last two games at Craven Cottage going over the total and that is what I'll be backing for this game.
Southampton v Norwich City Pick: The weather has been pretty good for this time of the year in the United Kingdom and that should allow the likes of Southampton to play their football without any adverse conditions.
The biggest problem for the home team may be their poor recent form, although they did find a way to beat Crystal Palace in their most recent League game. Southampton have not been so good at St Mary's though as they have failed to win their last 3 home games in the Premier League, although it has to be said that only the game against Stoke City would have been a disappointing failure.
Southampton will likely be aided by a Norwich City team that have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five away games in all competitions, and I think the home team may be tough to stop now that they have snapped a run of losses with a win last weekend.
I hate picking teams like the Saints, who can be wasteful at times in front of goal, to win matches by a couple of goals, but they play a brand of football that should offer up chances to score goals. As Norwich are conceding as many as they have been, that should give Southampton the opportunity to become the latest side to beat the Canaries by at least two goals at home.
Aston Villa v Chelsea Pick: I think this is going to be a very big game for Chelsea if they are to win the Premier League as it is these games where you are expected to win where the three points are vital. Villa Park has not been a venue that Jose Mourinho has experienced too much success and it all points to the potential for this banana skin to slip up the away side.
Add in the fact that there is a huge Champions League game on deck and Chelsea at short odds to win away from home begins to look very unappealing.
My problem is that Aston Villa have struggled at home and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans and the likes of Eden Hazard, Oscar and an in-form Samuel Eto'o will be able to cause some problems when they are going forward.
Prior to the win over Norwich City, Aston Villa had conceded at least two home goals in 3 games in a row. Also, since losing 0-1 to Liverpool here back in August, Aston Villa have conceded at least two goals to Manchester City, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, Manchester United and Arsenal so I am expecting Chelsea to find the goals in this game and prefer backing them to do that than I do in backing them to win the game at short odds.
The Champions League game means Chelsea are unlikely to keep turning the screw if they go ahead, but Jose Mourinho will also be aware of how the side dropped two points at West Brom when trying to sit on a one goal lead. I am going to back Chelsea to score either two or three goals at odds against to match the other top half teams in the Premier League and they will need to do that if they are to win the game.
Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: Even through all the years of dominance that Manchester United had in the Premier League when the likes of Arsenal, Newcastle United and Blackburn Rovers were the leading contenders challenging for the title, the games against Liverpool were still the first ones that fans would have looked for on the calendar.
That is unlikely to ever change with the rivalry between the two most successful clubs in England, but it is the first time in a long time that Liverpool will be going to Old Trafford with some expectation they can get a big result.
It would be the result that likely sees Manchester United miss out on a top four place if Liverpool were to win the game and I don't think Brendan Rodgers will put the handbrake on a team that has scored plenty of goals in their recent League games. It hasn't mattered to Liverpool if they have played at Anfield or not as the front two have caused havoc and they showed how committed they are to getting forward at White Hart Lane, the Etihad Stadium, Stamford Bridge and the Emirates Stadium over the last few months.
With the vulnerability in the Manchester United defence and the susceptibility to pace, Liverpool will certainly feel they are coming to Old Trafford with the chance to score goals.
On the other hand, Liverpool have looked a little shaky at the back themselves and they have kept only three clean sheets away from home all season. Stoke City and Fulham scored five goals between them in recent games they hosted Liverpool and I do think Manchester United will be able to create some chances.
David Moyes has to be fearless in the game as the onus will be on Manchester United to attack and that may leave them a little short at the back when Liverpool counter-attack. It is going to be very hard for United to find the balance they need in this game to see off Liverpool and they have to have more ideas in the final third if they are to win the game.
I might be a little pessimistic, but Liverpool look a dangerous side and similar performances they had in defeats at Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal (in the FA Cup) would give them a great chance of winning here. However, Manchester United should raise their game for a big rival visiting Old Trafford and they did in beating Arsenal at Old Trafford earlier in the season.
Of all the options, I can't see this game lacking for goals with both sides expecting to go forward and at least three goals looks to be the soundest option for a game where both teams will feel they can win.
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: The second game on 'Super Sunday' is expected to be another decent game for the neutrals, especially if Tottenham Hotspur continue making the defensive mistakes that produce goal-scoring chances as they have in their last two games.
Tottenham have reminded me of Manchester United at times over the last few weeks as they look a side that can quickly drop their heads if they fall behind in a game, while also being a little predictable with the way they try and attack teams.
There is some pace in the side that should cause Arsenal a few problems, but the Gunners have been defensively sound for much of the season even if that hasn't shown up so much in their most recent away games in the Premier League.
That should give Spurs hope that they can get amongst the goals in this game, but defensively they have been so generous that it is hard to imagine Arsenal not getting on the scoreboard themselves, even if they are missing some key attacking pieces. If Arsenal had the likes of Mesut Ozil, Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey available for selection, I would expect them to score enough goals to win this game, but those being out puts some doubt in my mind.
Goals have generally not been a problem in the North London derby when it is played at White Hart Lane and I think we could see a couple of mistakes that lead to the net bustling in this game too. At odds against, which is a surprise to me, I like the chance of at least three goals being scored.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fulham-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Southampton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Goal Bands: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
March Update: 10-9, + 3.18 Units (34 Units Staked, + 9.35% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 111-131-3, - 4.03 Units (389 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Super Sunday is also one of the better ones of the season as we see the biggest game in English football followed by the North London derby and both of those games will have a big impact on the top four.
It is a pivotal time of the season now we are firmly in the grips of March and the next two weeks will really open things up at both ends of the table. Hopefully the picks can remain in a good place too after a decent start to the month and continue with the picks made for this weekend.
Hull City v Manchester City Pick: There are games against the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal to come later this month, but there is also a feeling that this game is all important for Manchester City as they look to find a way to reel Chelsea back in.
I know they have three games in hand, but everyone would rather have the points on the board and Chelsea have that nice 9 point cushion over the team that most still believe will be their closest contenders for the Premier League title. With the Blues having a tough game at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon, Manchester City will look to up the ante by winning this game and putting the ball back in the Chelsea court.
As well as Hull City have played at home, they have begun to show vulnerabilities and have particularly struggled against the teams in the top half of the table. Aside from the win over Liverpool, Hull have seen Manchester United, Southampton, Chelsea and Newcastle United collect three points from this stadium over the last few games.
The win in the FA Cup would have given the team confidence, and Manchester City did have the tough exertion of playing Barcelona on Wednesday while the home team has had a week to prepare for the game. That is the biggest worry for Manchester City, but I think the squad proved they are capable of playing the best teams despite the defeat in the Nou Camp and I expect them to earn the three points here.
Chelsea and Newcastle United won easily enough here, and I believe Manchester City will win this one by a couple of goals too.
Fulham v Newcastle United Pick: It has been an awful season for Fulham in terms of results, but as the only ground in the Premier League with a neutral section, I am sure those fans in those seats won't have been lacking for entertainment.
Defensive problems have meant there have been plenty of goals to enjoy at Craven Cottage and that has also seen 10 of their last 11 Premier League games here see at least three goals scored.
It is hard to ignore the statistics- Fulham have conceded at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 games at Craven Cottage and have twice conceded four goals in that stretch of games. Most of those have come against top sides, but Sunderland and Southampton have also hit at least three goals and neither of those would be considered hugely free-scoring teams.
Loic Remy is not set to be in the squad for Newcastle United which will take away some of their goalscoring powers, especially if Hatem Ben Arfa also misses out. However, Fulham defend so poorly at times that Newcastle will still likely have the chances to score the goals to win the game.
Newcastle United have also scored three at West Ham United and four at Hull City so can punish teams when they get on a roll and all the stats are pointing to this one going over 2.5 goals.
Recent history also points to goals with the last two games at Craven Cottage going over the total and that is what I'll be backing for this game.
Southampton v Norwich City Pick: The weather has been pretty good for this time of the year in the United Kingdom and that should allow the likes of Southampton to play their football without any adverse conditions.
The biggest problem for the home team may be their poor recent form, although they did find a way to beat Crystal Palace in their most recent League game. Southampton have not been so good at St Mary's though as they have failed to win their last 3 home games in the Premier League, although it has to be said that only the game against Stoke City would have been a disappointing failure.
Southampton will likely be aided by a Norwich City team that have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five away games in all competitions, and I think the home team may be tough to stop now that they have snapped a run of losses with a win last weekend.
I hate picking teams like the Saints, who can be wasteful at times in front of goal, to win matches by a couple of goals, but they play a brand of football that should offer up chances to score goals. As Norwich are conceding as many as they have been, that should give Southampton the opportunity to become the latest side to beat the Canaries by at least two goals at home.
Aston Villa v Chelsea Pick: I think this is going to be a very big game for Chelsea if they are to win the Premier League as it is these games where you are expected to win where the three points are vital. Villa Park has not been a venue that Jose Mourinho has experienced too much success and it all points to the potential for this banana skin to slip up the away side.
Add in the fact that there is a huge Champions League game on deck and Chelsea at short odds to win away from home begins to look very unappealing.
My problem is that Aston Villa have struggled at home and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans and the likes of Eden Hazard, Oscar and an in-form Samuel Eto'o will be able to cause some problems when they are going forward.
Prior to the win over Norwich City, Aston Villa had conceded at least two home goals in 3 games in a row. Also, since losing 0-1 to Liverpool here back in August, Aston Villa have conceded at least two goals to Manchester City, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, Manchester United and Arsenal so I am expecting Chelsea to find the goals in this game and prefer backing them to do that than I do in backing them to win the game at short odds.
The Champions League game means Chelsea are unlikely to keep turning the screw if they go ahead, but Jose Mourinho will also be aware of how the side dropped two points at West Brom when trying to sit on a one goal lead. I am going to back Chelsea to score either two or three goals at odds against to match the other top half teams in the Premier League and they will need to do that if they are to win the game.
Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: Even through all the years of dominance that Manchester United had in the Premier League when the likes of Arsenal, Newcastle United and Blackburn Rovers were the leading contenders challenging for the title, the games against Liverpool were still the first ones that fans would have looked for on the calendar.
That is unlikely to ever change with the rivalry between the two most successful clubs in England, but it is the first time in a long time that Liverpool will be going to Old Trafford with some expectation they can get a big result.
It would be the result that likely sees Manchester United miss out on a top four place if Liverpool were to win the game and I don't think Brendan Rodgers will put the handbrake on a team that has scored plenty of goals in their recent League games. It hasn't mattered to Liverpool if they have played at Anfield or not as the front two have caused havoc and they showed how committed they are to getting forward at White Hart Lane, the Etihad Stadium, Stamford Bridge and the Emirates Stadium over the last few months.
With the vulnerability in the Manchester United defence and the susceptibility to pace, Liverpool will certainly feel they are coming to Old Trafford with the chance to score goals.
On the other hand, Liverpool have looked a little shaky at the back themselves and they have kept only three clean sheets away from home all season. Stoke City and Fulham scored five goals between them in recent games they hosted Liverpool and I do think Manchester United will be able to create some chances.
David Moyes has to be fearless in the game as the onus will be on Manchester United to attack and that may leave them a little short at the back when Liverpool counter-attack. It is going to be very hard for United to find the balance they need in this game to see off Liverpool and they have to have more ideas in the final third if they are to win the game.
I might be a little pessimistic, but Liverpool look a dangerous side and similar performances they had in defeats at Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal (in the FA Cup) would give them a great chance of winning here. However, Manchester United should raise their game for a big rival visiting Old Trafford and they did in beating Arsenal at Old Trafford earlier in the season.
Of all the options, I can't see this game lacking for goals with both sides expecting to go forward and at least three goals looks to be the soundest option for a game where both teams will feel they can win.
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: The second game on 'Super Sunday' is expected to be another decent game for the neutrals, especially if Tottenham Hotspur continue making the defensive mistakes that produce goal-scoring chances as they have in their last two games.
Tottenham have reminded me of Manchester United at times over the last few weeks as they look a side that can quickly drop their heads if they fall behind in a game, while also being a little predictable with the way they try and attack teams.
There is some pace in the side that should cause Arsenal a few problems, but the Gunners have been defensively sound for much of the season even if that hasn't shown up so much in their most recent away games in the Premier League.
That should give Spurs hope that they can get amongst the goals in this game, but defensively they have been so generous that it is hard to imagine Arsenal not getting on the scoreboard themselves, even if they are missing some key attacking pieces. If Arsenal had the likes of Mesut Ozil, Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey available for selection, I would expect them to score enough goals to win this game, but those being out puts some doubt in my mind.
Goals have generally not been a problem in the North London derby when it is played at White Hart Lane and I think we could see a couple of mistakes that lead to the net bustling in this game too. At odds against, which is a surprise to me, I like the chance of at least three goals being scored.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fulham-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Southampton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Goal Bands: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
March Update: 10-9, + 3.18 Units (34 Units Staked, + 9.35% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 111-131-3, - 4.03 Units (389 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Friday, 14 March 2014
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2014 (March 14th)
We enter the final three days of the tournament in Indian Wells and there are plenty of surprising names that are still in the draws that makes this another event that people have been describing as a 'changing of the guard'.
Personally, it seems a little early to be describing the first two and a half months of the season in that manner and I still believe the names we have come to expect will be taking home the remaining Grand Slam titles this season.
It'll be interesting to see how the next two months develop as the European clay court will begin on the road to the French Open, but I know I won't be losing faith in the players that have produced so much top tennis over the last few years just yet.
And it also will be foolish to ignore the fact that three of the women's top five players in the world have made it through to the Semi Finals even without Serena Williams taking part, while Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have every chance of extending the dominance of the four big names in the men's game at the Masters level.
Yes, it is fun to see some new names in the final three days, but it may be familiar names taking home the title in the next couple of days.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Julien Benneteau: The first thing you have to remember is how awkward Julien Benneteau can make life for any player when he is on form and you have to expect he is feeling in a good place after reaching the Quarter Final here.
The Frenchman serves better than it may seem and he can produce enough quality tennis to really push the best players as he has shown in the past against Roger Federer.
However, Novak Djokovic produced some top tennis to see off Marin Cilic in the Fourth Round after blowing the first set spectacularly and I think the Serb is ready to reach the Final here. There are a couple of tough matches he has to negotiate, but Djokovic has the returning skills to keep Benneteau working for all his points and that may pay dividends when the match is said and done.
These two haven't played each other in a couple of years, but I believe Djokovic is playing well enough to come through with a 64, 62 win in this one as Benneateau's long week perhaps catches up with him after a tight first set.
Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: The Romanian is moving up to a career high World Number 5 at the end of the tournament and will be looking for her third straight win over Agnieszka Radwanska.
Simona Halep has been in decent form again this week and is looking to pick up the biggest title of her career by winning this Premier Event after only recently achieving that mark by winning in Doha. She has had to come through a couple of tough matches this week, but Radwanska's game should be a little more comfortable to deal with than the heavy hitting that Lucie Safarova and Eugenie Bouchard are capable of.
There are going to be plenty of breaks of serve in the match for both players, but Radwanska's second serve is a real weakness and that is where I think Halep will end up making the most of her chances.
It will be a gruelling match as both players are capable of extending the rallies on a slower hard court, but I would expect Halep to be a little too tough and come through in three sets.
Na Li - 4.5 games v Flavia Pennetta: At first glance, I actually did think this was too many games for Na Li to give up in this Semi Final, but I expect her game is going to be a little too strong for Flavia Pennetta to deal with.
Both players had to come through in three sets in their Quarter Finals played yesterday, but Pennetta's was the longer and more gruelling match which may have taken something away both mentally and physically.
Li will add to that pressure with the heavy groundstrokes and a big key will be if Pennetta can improve her first serve percentage. She struggled in that regards against Sloane Stephens and it was the same problem for her when dismissed by Li at the Australian Open earlier this season.
There have been lapses of concentration by the World Number 2 at times this week, but she is still in the tournament and I think she will come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 23-17, + 8.16 Units (80 Units Staked, + 10.2% Yield)
Personally, it seems a little early to be describing the first two and a half months of the season in that manner and I still believe the names we have come to expect will be taking home the remaining Grand Slam titles this season.
It'll be interesting to see how the next two months develop as the European clay court will begin on the road to the French Open, but I know I won't be losing faith in the players that have produced so much top tennis over the last few years just yet.
And it also will be foolish to ignore the fact that three of the women's top five players in the world have made it through to the Semi Finals even without Serena Williams taking part, while Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have every chance of extending the dominance of the four big names in the men's game at the Masters level.
Yes, it is fun to see some new names in the final three days, but it may be familiar names taking home the title in the next couple of days.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Julien Benneteau: The first thing you have to remember is how awkward Julien Benneteau can make life for any player when he is on form and you have to expect he is feeling in a good place after reaching the Quarter Final here.
The Frenchman serves better than it may seem and he can produce enough quality tennis to really push the best players as he has shown in the past against Roger Federer.
However, Novak Djokovic produced some top tennis to see off Marin Cilic in the Fourth Round after blowing the first set spectacularly and I think the Serb is ready to reach the Final here. There are a couple of tough matches he has to negotiate, but Djokovic has the returning skills to keep Benneteau working for all his points and that may pay dividends when the match is said and done.
These two haven't played each other in a couple of years, but I believe Djokovic is playing well enough to come through with a 64, 62 win in this one as Benneateau's long week perhaps catches up with him after a tight first set.
Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: The Romanian is moving up to a career high World Number 5 at the end of the tournament and will be looking for her third straight win over Agnieszka Radwanska.
Simona Halep has been in decent form again this week and is looking to pick up the biggest title of her career by winning this Premier Event after only recently achieving that mark by winning in Doha. She has had to come through a couple of tough matches this week, but Radwanska's game should be a little more comfortable to deal with than the heavy hitting that Lucie Safarova and Eugenie Bouchard are capable of.
There are going to be plenty of breaks of serve in the match for both players, but Radwanska's second serve is a real weakness and that is where I think Halep will end up making the most of her chances.
It will be a gruelling match as both players are capable of extending the rallies on a slower hard court, but I would expect Halep to be a little too tough and come through in three sets.
Na Li - 4.5 games v Flavia Pennetta: At first glance, I actually did think this was too many games for Na Li to give up in this Semi Final, but I expect her game is going to be a little too strong for Flavia Pennetta to deal with.
Both players had to come through in three sets in their Quarter Finals played yesterday, but Pennetta's was the longer and more gruelling match which may have taken something away both mentally and physically.
Li will add to that pressure with the heavy groundstrokes and a big key will be if Pennetta can improve her first serve percentage. She struggled in that regards against Sloane Stephens and it was the same problem for her when dismissed by Li at the Australian Open earlier this season.
There have been lapses of concentration by the World Number 2 at times this week, but she is still in the tournament and I think she will come through 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 23-17, + 8.16 Units (80 Units Staked, + 10.2% Yield)
Thursday, 13 March 2014
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2014 (March 13th)
We have reached the last eight in both draws and I have to say it is more than a little surprise that some of the names that we expected to see at this stage have not actually made it here.
The likes of Andy Murray and Stanislas Wawrinka joined Rafael Nadal in heading to Miami which leaves the top half of the draw at the mercy of a rejuvenated Roger Federer who will be feeling confident he can reach consecutive Finals and perhaps take home consecutive titles.
It was also a tough day for the picks as a couple of players failed to take the chances that came their way to perhaps get over the spread numbers, but overall it remains a strong week as long as either Na Li or Novak Djokovic can go on and win the tournament.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Speaking of Na Li, she had to really battle to get over the line in her last match despite dominating it for much of the evening, but I still believe she will be too good for Dominika Cibilkova.
Their match at the Australian Open was really on the racquet of Li and I think that will be the case again here as the World Number 2 is likely to dominate behind her power. I think Cibulkova is definitely a dangerous player for Li, but she doesn't have the biggest of serves and that is where I expect Li to have the most success to earn breaks of serve and remain in front.
The heart and determination that Cibulkova has will always put doubts in my mind when I go against her, but the power and the consistency that Li has should cause one too many problems and lead to a place in the Semi Final.
The first set is likely to be close, but if Li can come through with that in the bag, I expect her to power away in the second set.
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is a very interesting Quarter Final between the veteran with experience and the young player who so many are expecting so many big things from.
It is one of the weird statistics on the Tour that Sloane Stephens has failed to reach a Final in an event, yet has reached Grand Slam Semi Finals and she has so much potential in her game. However, there are some suggestions of her not taking all events as seriously as she could, although that will really be an issue if she is to expect a win against someone as savvy as Flavia Pennetta.
It has been a good week for Stephens, but Pennetta has backed up good results in 2014 with another strong showing and will be expecting herself to see off the young American.
Pennetta has a decent serve and is consistent off the ground which should work well on these courts and I do think she is going to find her way through to the Semi Final. It might take three sets if Stephens knuckles down for the fight, but I like Pennetta to come through 63, 46, 64.
MY PICKS: Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 21-17, + 4.6 Units (76 Units Staked, + 6.05% Yield)
The likes of Andy Murray and Stanislas Wawrinka joined Rafael Nadal in heading to Miami which leaves the top half of the draw at the mercy of a rejuvenated Roger Federer who will be feeling confident he can reach consecutive Finals and perhaps take home consecutive titles.
It was also a tough day for the picks as a couple of players failed to take the chances that came their way to perhaps get over the spread numbers, but overall it remains a strong week as long as either Na Li or Novak Djokovic can go on and win the tournament.
Na Li - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Speaking of Na Li, she had to really battle to get over the line in her last match despite dominating it for much of the evening, but I still believe she will be too good for Dominika Cibilkova.
Their match at the Australian Open was really on the racquet of Li and I think that will be the case again here as the World Number 2 is likely to dominate behind her power. I think Cibulkova is definitely a dangerous player for Li, but she doesn't have the biggest of serves and that is where I expect Li to have the most success to earn breaks of serve and remain in front.
The heart and determination that Cibulkova has will always put doubts in my mind when I go against her, but the power and the consistency that Li has should cause one too many problems and lead to a place in the Semi Final.
The first set is likely to be close, but if Li can come through with that in the bag, I expect her to power away in the second set.
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is a very interesting Quarter Final between the veteran with experience and the young player who so many are expecting so many big things from.
It is one of the weird statistics on the Tour that Sloane Stephens has failed to reach a Final in an event, yet has reached Grand Slam Semi Finals and she has so much potential in her game. However, there are some suggestions of her not taking all events as seriously as she could, although that will really be an issue if she is to expect a win against someone as savvy as Flavia Pennetta.
It has been a good week for Stephens, but Pennetta has backed up good results in 2014 with another strong showing and will be expecting herself to see off the young American.
Pennetta has a decent serve and is consistent off the ground which should work well on these courts and I do think she is going to find her way through to the Semi Final. It might take three sets if Stephens knuckles down for the fight, but I like Pennetta to come through 63, 46, 64.
MY PICKS: Na Li - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 21-17, + 4.6 Units (76 Units Staked, + 6.05% Yield)
Wednesday, 12 March 2014
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2014 (March 12th)
Yesterday saw the first of my outright picks of the week exit the tournament as Caroline Wozniacki was easily beaten by Jelena Jankovic and I will be losing another today after Marin Cilic and Novak Djokovic complete their Fourth Round match against one another.
That aside, it was actually a strong day for the picks with five of the six coming back as winners, including Na Li who did her utmost to blow the final game of the match that needed ELEVEN match points before she got over the line.
Li is also my main pick from the women's tournament and will need to improve markedly if she is going to win the event from the performances she has produced so far this week. However, the three main rivals that she would face at the Grand Slam level are either not here (Serena Williams) or are already heading to Miami (Victoria Azarenka/Maria Sharapova), so the current World Number 2 may not have a better chance to win a Premier Event.
Today we will see the men's Quarter Final line up set and one half of the women's Semi Finals as the tournament reaches the business end of the event. The second Masters/Premier Event of the season will begin the main draw a week from today in Miami, but none of the players left in the draws will be thinking about that with serious Ranking points on offer in the next few days.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Some players do struggle to back up big wins, but Alexandr Dolgopolov had three surprising wins in the tournament at Buenos Aires recently in his march to the Final and so I am going to have faith in him in this Fourth Round match.
Beating Rafael Nadal is a huge moment for any player, especially one that has slipped down the Rankings over the last twelve months thanks to a number of very disappointing defeats. However, Dolgopolov will have good memories of dismissing Fabio Fognini's challenge in Argentina a couple of weeks ago and he has the awkward style that should cause plenty of problems for the Italian.
That has meant that Dolgopolov has won three in a row against Fognini, although I don't want to overlook the latter and the improvements he has made over the last nine months.
Fognini, however, has to work hard for most of the points he will win and he can go through poor lapses of concentration that should give Dolgopolov the chance to win the match, although it may need three tight sets to book a place in the Quarter Final.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: I made the same pick when these two players met in Rotterdam last month and it only was a late lapse of concentration that cost Ernests Gulbis the chance to cover. He also had more break point chances than Roberto Bautista-Agut in that match and I believe Gulbis is going to have enough to see the cover come through this time around.
He had to fight through a tough Third Round match against Grigor Dimitrov which is a tough obstacle to recover from, but he will get chances against Bautista-Agut and Gulbis has also been serving very well over the last six weeks.
Gulbis will have some sticky moments against the Spaniard, but I think there is more about his game which is going to be well suited by the slightly slower court at Indian Wells. It should give Gulbis time to sit on his shots and I expect him to be a little too hard for Bautista-Agut to crack.
This time, I feel Gulbis will come through with a 76, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 games v John Isner: Fernando Verdasco had to save a number of break points early in his win over Richard Gasquet, but I still think he is playing well enough to push John Isner all the way in this one and perhaps even win the match.
With the serve that Verdasco possesses, it will be tough for Isner to earn a break unless the Spaniard starts spraying the errors through the court. It should set up some easy points, but Verdasco is unlikely to close the chipped return so he has to be on form to make sure he doesn't offer cheap points to his opponent.
I have to respect the serving displays that Isner has produced too at Indian Wells so it certainly won't be easy for Verdasco, but he can steal a set at least in the match and that will make the number of games he begins with look pretty big by the end of the contest.
It will likely need three sets to separate the players, but Verdasco has a real chance winning the match outright too.
Tommy Haas + 3.5 games v Roger Federer: These two players are pretty good friends off the court, but that hasn't meant either rolling over for the other and I expect Tommy Haas to push Roger Federer all the way in the match.
Haas has been inconsistent in 2014 with injuries hurting some of his runs in tournaments, but he has played well in the first two matches here at Indian Wells and will feel comfortable on the courts.
The veteran has also produced some top tennis against Federer in their recent meetings and has found a way to take at least a set off of the former World Number 1. I also feel Federer, while winning matches, hasn't been totally at the races on the slower hard courts that may not be the best conditions for him these days.
It will need Haas to serve well from the beginning of the match, but he gets up for the challenge of facing Federer and although he might not have enough to win the match, I expect this to be a competitive Fourth Round to the end.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: This is a tough Quarter Final for both players who play a similar brand of tactics on the court, although the power is on the side of Jelena Jankovic.
I have been burnt by Agnieszka Radwanska in the last few weeks, but I think the back problem for Jankovic may be exposed in what could be a match featuring long rallies.
While Jankovic didn't have any effects against Caroline Wozniacki in the Fourth Round, she hasn't had a day off to rest and there is every chance she could be adversely affected in this one.
They haven't played in a couple of years, and Jankovic is improved from when they last met, but I still think Radwanska will find her way through.
MY PICKS: Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Haas + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanksa - 2.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 19-14, + 7.40 Units (66 Units Staked, + 11.21% Yield)
That aside, it was actually a strong day for the picks with five of the six coming back as winners, including Na Li who did her utmost to blow the final game of the match that needed ELEVEN match points before she got over the line.
Li is also my main pick from the women's tournament and will need to improve markedly if she is going to win the event from the performances she has produced so far this week. However, the three main rivals that she would face at the Grand Slam level are either not here (Serena Williams) or are already heading to Miami (Victoria Azarenka/Maria Sharapova), so the current World Number 2 may not have a better chance to win a Premier Event.
Today we will see the men's Quarter Final line up set and one half of the women's Semi Finals as the tournament reaches the business end of the event. The second Masters/Premier Event of the season will begin the main draw a week from today in Miami, but none of the players left in the draws will be thinking about that with serious Ranking points on offer in the next few days.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Some players do struggle to back up big wins, but Alexandr Dolgopolov had three surprising wins in the tournament at Buenos Aires recently in his march to the Final and so I am going to have faith in him in this Fourth Round match.
Beating Rafael Nadal is a huge moment for any player, especially one that has slipped down the Rankings over the last twelve months thanks to a number of very disappointing defeats. However, Dolgopolov will have good memories of dismissing Fabio Fognini's challenge in Argentina a couple of weeks ago and he has the awkward style that should cause plenty of problems for the Italian.
That has meant that Dolgopolov has won three in a row against Fognini, although I don't want to overlook the latter and the improvements he has made over the last nine months.
Fognini, however, has to work hard for most of the points he will win and he can go through poor lapses of concentration that should give Dolgopolov the chance to win the match, although it may need three tight sets to book a place in the Quarter Final.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: I made the same pick when these two players met in Rotterdam last month and it only was a late lapse of concentration that cost Ernests Gulbis the chance to cover. He also had more break point chances than Roberto Bautista-Agut in that match and I believe Gulbis is going to have enough to see the cover come through this time around.
He had to fight through a tough Third Round match against Grigor Dimitrov which is a tough obstacle to recover from, but he will get chances against Bautista-Agut and Gulbis has also been serving very well over the last six weeks.
Gulbis will have some sticky moments against the Spaniard, but I think there is more about his game which is going to be well suited by the slightly slower court at Indian Wells. It should give Gulbis time to sit on his shots and I expect him to be a little too hard for Bautista-Agut to crack.
This time, I feel Gulbis will come through with a 76, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 games v John Isner: Fernando Verdasco had to save a number of break points early in his win over Richard Gasquet, but I still think he is playing well enough to push John Isner all the way in this one and perhaps even win the match.
With the serve that Verdasco possesses, it will be tough for Isner to earn a break unless the Spaniard starts spraying the errors through the court. It should set up some easy points, but Verdasco is unlikely to close the chipped return so he has to be on form to make sure he doesn't offer cheap points to his opponent.
I have to respect the serving displays that Isner has produced too at Indian Wells so it certainly won't be easy for Verdasco, but he can steal a set at least in the match and that will make the number of games he begins with look pretty big by the end of the contest.
It will likely need three sets to separate the players, but Verdasco has a real chance winning the match outright too.
Tommy Haas + 3.5 games v Roger Federer: These two players are pretty good friends off the court, but that hasn't meant either rolling over for the other and I expect Tommy Haas to push Roger Federer all the way in the match.
Haas has been inconsistent in 2014 with injuries hurting some of his runs in tournaments, but he has played well in the first two matches here at Indian Wells and will feel comfortable on the courts.
The veteran has also produced some top tennis against Federer in their recent meetings and has found a way to take at least a set off of the former World Number 1. I also feel Federer, while winning matches, hasn't been totally at the races on the slower hard courts that may not be the best conditions for him these days.
It will need Haas to serve well from the beginning of the match, but he gets up for the challenge of facing Federer and although he might not have enough to win the match, I expect this to be a competitive Fourth Round to the end.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: This is a tough Quarter Final for both players who play a similar brand of tactics on the court, although the power is on the side of Jelena Jankovic.
I have been burnt by Agnieszka Radwanska in the last few weeks, but I think the back problem for Jankovic may be exposed in what could be a match featuring long rallies.
While Jankovic didn't have any effects against Caroline Wozniacki in the Fourth Round, she hasn't had a day off to rest and there is every chance she could be adversely affected in this one.
They haven't played in a couple of years, and Jankovic is improved from when they last met, but I still think Radwanska will find her way through.
MY PICKS: Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Haas + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanksa - 2.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 19-14, + 7.40 Units (66 Units Staked, + 11.21% Yield)
Tuesday, 11 March 2014
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2014 (March 11th)
Well, well, well, I will admit that I didn't see Rafael Nadal going out of the tournament yesterday and it almost makes it worth losing one pick as it certainly shortens the odds on Novak Djokovic winning the event, who is my main outright pick of the week.
It was a surprising result for Nadal considering how well he has dominated Alexandr Dolgopolov in the past, but the Spaniard missed the chances he had especially when you consider he was twice with a break advantage in the first set but still lost it 63.
A lot of people may also automatically think that the back must have been bothering Nadal, but Dolgopolov played very well and made a lot of decent shots, while also riding his luck a little.
That also means the top half of the draw has been opened up- the likes of Andy Murray and Roger Federer will feel they can take advantage, but it is Stanislas Wawrinka who has looked the most comfortable so far. He is clearly playing with a lot of confidence having won the Australian Open and will be extremely tough to stop if he maintains the form he has shown in dismissing Ivo Karlovic and Andreas Seppi.
There was also another surprise in the women's event as Maria Sharapova became the latest casualty in the draw. The Russian was outplayed by Camila Giorgi in large parts of their match and I think the young Italian is really beginning to make a statement on the Tour and could be someone to keep an eye on over the next few months.
Giorgi hits the ball hard and consistently off both wings and has a surprisingly decent serve considering she is 'short' when it comes to tennis players at 5 foot 6 inches.
Being able to match what was coming from Sharapova's side of the court can only bode well for her going forward as long as she keeps her head straight.
It was another result that I appreciated having backed Na Li at the start of the tournament and seeing the favourite (Victoria Azarenka) and the third favourite (Sharapova) exiting the draw will strengthen her chances of winning. However, nothing is set in stone and Li is always capable of throwing in a real stinking performance so there is a lot more tennis to be played before anyone is picking up the title.
Jarkko Nieminen + 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: It was another special performance from the Spaniard Roberto Bautista-Agut that saw him beat another top ten player during the 2014 season as he knocked off Tomas Berdych in the Second Round.
He followed up his win over Juan Martin Del Potro at the Australian Open by crushing Benoit Paire, but I am expecting Jarkko Nieminen to cause him more problems in this Third Round match.
Nieminen is a veteran that is likely to slip out of the top 50 by the end of the season, but the fact that he is left-handed will cause some problems even if he doesn't have the biggest serve on Tour. He is still capable of returning decently and forcing opponents to make mistakes and he will have chances to take at least a set in this match.
It will be a gruelling match for both players that should see plenty of break point opportunities and the match has a real chance of going into a deciding set. That could make this number of games critical in favour of the Finn and I believe he will stay within the number, even in a losing effort.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Tommy Robredo: I really like the way Marin Cilic is playing at the moment and I think he can ride the crest of a wave and knock off the veteran Tommy Robredo in this Third Round match.
With the help of a former Wimbledon winner in Goran Ivanisevic, Cilic has become more aggressive behind his serve which is helping him a lot. Now he is earning those aces and cheap points that a player of his size should be winning and that will put the pressure on Robredo in the match.
I hate underestimating someone as grizzled as Robredo, especially as he has shown a lot of heart and determination over the last twelve months to move up the Rankings and win matches from seemingly impossible positions (the run at the French Open really springs to mind).
Robredo serves pretty effectively and the courts should be to his liking, but Cilic is in imperious form and I like the Croatian coming through 64, 64.
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: They played a tight match in Paris at the end of last season and I wouldn't be surprised if this is another one that follows a similar path.
Fernando Verdasco is certainly not the player of three/four years ago and is enjoying considerably more success as a Doubles player these days, but he still has the game that can cause immense problems for those not quite at the top of their game.
I have a feeling that Richard Gasquet could be a little undercooked for a tough Third Round match having been the beneficiary of a retirement in the last Round. The Frenchman has certainly improved, in my opinion, over the last twelve months, but he has had a slow start to 2014 from what may have been expected.
Someone like Verdasco can cause enough problems to steal a set and although he can sometimes fall apart in losing efforts, I think the match up is a decent one on a court that should suit the Spaniard.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: I must need my head tested for backing Feliciano Lopez again this week, but the Spaniard is generally under-rated by the layers because of his poor returning statistics.
However, I expect he will get a fair bit of help from Mikhail Kukushkin who can produce a rash of errors to give away sets and that is where I think Lopez will come out on top.
The courts are perhaps a bit slow for the Lopez serve-volley combination, but he is getting enough bite out of the serve to earn cheap points. If Kukushkin plays as he does usually, he too will get a few cheap points behind the first serve, but he can't produce through the longer rallies and I expect the Lopez slice to cause some problems.
Lopez has beaten Kukushkin twice in the past, including earlier this season and I think he will have enough to come through 76, 64.
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 games v Camila Giorgi: The battle of a couple of Italians in the Fourth Round could be a very entertaining match to watch, but I am looking for Flavia Pennetta to earn her revenge over Camila Giorgi having been beaten in their sole previous match.
That came at Wimbledon a couple of years ago and it was fairly comfortable for the younger player... However, Giorgi has to prove she can back up a huge win by finding her way through her next match, something she has struggled with over the last twelve months.
Giorgi has won a match as a fairly substantial underdog five times in the past year but has been beaten in her next match every time and it is going to be tough for her to come back down to earth with no days to rest since beating Maria Sharapova.
There is no doubt in my mind that Giorgi is a potential star on the Tour, but Pennetta is playing well and may be able to expose any fatigue that may be lingering for her younger compatriot.
Na Li - 5.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: Na Li has made it through comfortably in the last two Rounds of the draw here in Indian Wells and I think she will have a little too much for the Canadian Aleksandra Wozniak in this Fourth Round match.
Li has admitted there are areas of her game that she needs to improve if she is to take the title home at the end of the week, but I think Wozniak will give her the opportunity to find her rhythm.
As well as Wozniak has done to reach the Fourth Round here, Li is a big step up in class and I think it will be tough for the World Number 241 to win more than 6 games in the match.
She will make a big jump up the Rankings at the end of the week so Wozniak has some positives to take from Indian Wells, but I like Li to win this one 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Jarkko Nieminen + 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Na Li - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 14-13, + 0.26 Units (54 Units Staked, + 0.05% Yield)
It was a surprising result for Nadal considering how well he has dominated Alexandr Dolgopolov in the past, but the Spaniard missed the chances he had especially when you consider he was twice with a break advantage in the first set but still lost it 63.
A lot of people may also automatically think that the back must have been bothering Nadal, but Dolgopolov played very well and made a lot of decent shots, while also riding his luck a little.
That also means the top half of the draw has been opened up- the likes of Andy Murray and Roger Federer will feel they can take advantage, but it is Stanislas Wawrinka who has looked the most comfortable so far. He is clearly playing with a lot of confidence having won the Australian Open and will be extremely tough to stop if he maintains the form he has shown in dismissing Ivo Karlovic and Andreas Seppi.
There was also another surprise in the women's event as Maria Sharapova became the latest casualty in the draw. The Russian was outplayed by Camila Giorgi in large parts of their match and I think the young Italian is really beginning to make a statement on the Tour and could be someone to keep an eye on over the next few months.
Giorgi hits the ball hard and consistently off both wings and has a surprisingly decent serve considering she is 'short' when it comes to tennis players at 5 foot 6 inches.
Being able to match what was coming from Sharapova's side of the court can only bode well for her going forward as long as she keeps her head straight.
It was another result that I appreciated having backed Na Li at the start of the tournament and seeing the favourite (Victoria Azarenka) and the third favourite (Sharapova) exiting the draw will strengthen her chances of winning. However, nothing is set in stone and Li is always capable of throwing in a real stinking performance so there is a lot more tennis to be played before anyone is picking up the title.
Jarkko Nieminen + 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: It was another special performance from the Spaniard Roberto Bautista-Agut that saw him beat another top ten player during the 2014 season as he knocked off Tomas Berdych in the Second Round.
He followed up his win over Juan Martin Del Potro at the Australian Open by crushing Benoit Paire, but I am expecting Jarkko Nieminen to cause him more problems in this Third Round match.
Nieminen is a veteran that is likely to slip out of the top 50 by the end of the season, but the fact that he is left-handed will cause some problems even if he doesn't have the biggest serve on Tour. He is still capable of returning decently and forcing opponents to make mistakes and he will have chances to take at least a set in this match.
It will be a gruelling match for both players that should see plenty of break point opportunities and the match has a real chance of going into a deciding set. That could make this number of games critical in favour of the Finn and I believe he will stay within the number, even in a losing effort.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Tommy Robredo: I really like the way Marin Cilic is playing at the moment and I think he can ride the crest of a wave and knock off the veteran Tommy Robredo in this Third Round match.
With the help of a former Wimbledon winner in Goran Ivanisevic, Cilic has become more aggressive behind his serve which is helping him a lot. Now he is earning those aces and cheap points that a player of his size should be winning and that will put the pressure on Robredo in the match.
I hate underestimating someone as grizzled as Robredo, especially as he has shown a lot of heart and determination over the last twelve months to move up the Rankings and win matches from seemingly impossible positions (the run at the French Open really springs to mind).
Robredo serves pretty effectively and the courts should be to his liking, but Cilic is in imperious form and I like the Croatian coming through 64, 64.
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: They played a tight match in Paris at the end of last season and I wouldn't be surprised if this is another one that follows a similar path.
Fernando Verdasco is certainly not the player of three/four years ago and is enjoying considerably more success as a Doubles player these days, but he still has the game that can cause immense problems for those not quite at the top of their game.
I have a feeling that Richard Gasquet could be a little undercooked for a tough Third Round match having been the beneficiary of a retirement in the last Round. The Frenchman has certainly improved, in my opinion, over the last twelve months, but he has had a slow start to 2014 from what may have been expected.
Someone like Verdasco can cause enough problems to steal a set and although he can sometimes fall apart in losing efforts, I think the match up is a decent one on a court that should suit the Spaniard.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: I must need my head tested for backing Feliciano Lopez again this week, but the Spaniard is generally under-rated by the layers because of his poor returning statistics.
However, I expect he will get a fair bit of help from Mikhail Kukushkin who can produce a rash of errors to give away sets and that is where I think Lopez will come out on top.
The courts are perhaps a bit slow for the Lopez serve-volley combination, but he is getting enough bite out of the serve to earn cheap points. If Kukushkin plays as he does usually, he too will get a few cheap points behind the first serve, but he can't produce through the longer rallies and I expect the Lopez slice to cause some problems.
Lopez has beaten Kukushkin twice in the past, including earlier this season and I think he will have enough to come through 76, 64.
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 games v Camila Giorgi: The battle of a couple of Italians in the Fourth Round could be a very entertaining match to watch, but I am looking for Flavia Pennetta to earn her revenge over Camila Giorgi having been beaten in their sole previous match.
That came at Wimbledon a couple of years ago and it was fairly comfortable for the younger player... However, Giorgi has to prove she can back up a huge win by finding her way through her next match, something she has struggled with over the last twelve months.
Giorgi has won a match as a fairly substantial underdog five times in the past year but has been beaten in her next match every time and it is going to be tough for her to come back down to earth with no days to rest since beating Maria Sharapova.
There is no doubt in my mind that Giorgi is a potential star on the Tour, but Pennetta is playing well and may be able to expose any fatigue that may be lingering for her younger compatriot.
Na Li - 5.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: Na Li has made it through comfortably in the last two Rounds of the draw here in Indian Wells and I think she will have a little too much for the Canadian Aleksandra Wozniak in this Fourth Round match.
Li has admitted there are areas of her game that she needs to improve if she is to take the title home at the end of the week, but I think Wozniak will give her the opportunity to find her rhythm.
As well as Wozniak has done to reach the Fourth Round here, Li is a big step up in class and I think it will be tough for the World Number 241 to win more than 6 games in the match.
She will make a big jump up the Rankings at the end of the week so Wozniak has some positives to take from Indian Wells, but I like Li to win this one 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Jarkko Nieminen + 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Na Li - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 14-13, + 0.26 Units (54 Units Staked, + 0.05% Yield)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)