Davis Cup Outright Picks and Day 1 Picks 2015 (March 6th)

It has been a very good start to the tennis season for the picks, but I decided to take a few days off along with the ATP Tour, especially as the two WTA events are not exactly loaded with the top talent. With Indian Wells and Miami the two big events that will take over the rest of the month, it was no surprise that the top WTA players have decided to focus their efforts on those events, while the ATP scheduling leaves this as a week for the World Group in the Davis Cup to begin.

The Davis Cup proved to be a productive tournament for me last season having picked Switzerland to win the event at this stage of the competition, mainly thanks to both Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka making it clear they would be playing. Twelve months makes a huge difference though and neither player will be part of the defending Champions four player team this week and Switzerland won't have Federer for the rest of the year either which makes it difficult to see them winning 12/20 rubbers to take the title home for a second successive year.


Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic are the four members of the top 10 in the World Rankings that will be representing their nations this week as the latter two actually will meet one another in the Japan-Canada tie. Djokovic's presence for Serbia has made that nation the favourite to win the Davis Cup that they took home in 2010, and they do seem to have the back up in Victor Troicki and Doubles skills of Nenad Zimonjic to go very far in the tournament.

However, the Davis Cup ties have been placed in awkward spots to really rely on Djokovic's presence  with the Quarter Finals played days after Wimbledon comes to an end and the Semi Finals are just days after the conclusion of the US Open. Novak Djokovic has made those trips in the past though and Serbia do seem to be in the weaker half of the draw and are right to be considered favourites.

I will have a small interest in them to win the event, especially if Djokovic is available through the rest of the year, but that uncertainty also means I want to limit my stake.


The other half of the World Group draw has a number of teams that could perhaps go all the way with France being considered the most likely. There is little doubt that the French team has the best depth, but they don't have a stand-out player that you would really believe could win two rubbers in every tie and that does leave them a little short in the market for me.

France have had a strong team for the last few years, but they haven't won the Davis Cup since 2001 and the draw could have been more straight-forward for them.

The most dangerous team for France in the top half of the draw could be the Australian one containing some youthful exuberance coupled with veteran experience. There have been a few people talking up Australia's chances to win their first Davis Cup title since 2003 and I have to agree with those suggestions when you look at the draw.

Facing a Czech Republic team missing Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek gives Australia a great chance to move into the Quarter Finals where they would be expected to be Italy, especially as the tie would be played at home. That could be the key to the Semi Final too as long as Great Britain don't manage to get through to that Round and the Australians will feel this is the chance to really give Lleyton Hewitt the perfect sending off with retirement looming in January 2016.

Hewitt is going to take over as Captain of the Davis Cup team after that point too so this is a chance for his current team-mates to really earn some favour with him too and Australia do look a big price to go all the way.


Any picks from the first day of the Davis Cup ties will be placed on this thread either on Thursday or Friday as long as there is some picks worth making once the layers put their markets up.


Andy Murray - 8.5 games v Donald Young: The Great British Davis Cup team stunned the United States in San Diego last year, but I am a little surprised that they have been set as the favourites to come through this tie. The Bryn Brothers have a definite edge over whatever Doubles team Great Britain pick, while I would say John Isner and Donald Young are both healthy favourites to beat James Ward.

That means Andy Murray winning his two Singles matches might not matter, but I do expect the British Number 1 to put some pressure on the Americans by taking the first rubber of the day. Donald Young has beaten Murray before, but he has lost eight sets in a row against him since that shocking win at Indian Wells in 2011.

The sets have been barely competitive in that time and I think Murray has been playing well enough to put together another fairly comfortable win. He should be inspired playing in front of his friends and family and returning to Scotland for the first time to play a competitive match as a Grand Slam Champion.

The indoor hard court conditions may make breaking serve a little more hazardous, but Murray should make Young play a lot of balls in this one and that might wear down his opponent as it did in San Diego. That match was on a clay court, but Murray also crushed Young at the US Open in 2011 and I can see him breaking down the Young game by extracting the mistakes and using a fired up crowd to a 64, 63, 62 win.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Serbia @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australia @ 17.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)

Davis Cup Day One Picks: Andy Murray - 8.5 Games @ 1.85 Sky Bet (2 Units)

February 23-March 1 Daily Picks Final: 15-7, + 13.98 Units (44 Units Staked, + 31.77% Yield)

Season 2015: + 42.17 Units (309 Units Staked, + 13.65% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Davis Cup Tennis (February 10th-12th)

At the end of the Australian Open a couple of weeks ago, I said I would not be making any picks from the tennis circuit until the Davis Cup was beginning as I wasn't entirely sure how serious some players would be taken the few tournaments we had in the last two weeks.

Now the draw for the ties came out a while ago, but the actual order of the matches was decided earlier today and there are some matches that do interest me, although the layers have been remarkably slow on the uptake and that means they have not put up their entire prices for all the markets that could be of interest.

With that being said, it means I will not be making any picks at this moment, BUT I am hoping that all the markets will be ready by the time I get to work in the morning, and I will put up my picks at that moment.

Until then, I would keep an eye on my Twitter account where I will update as soon as the picks have been locked in... With a little luck, the first picks will be put up at least a couple of hours before the Switzerland-USA tie begins at Midday British time.


Update 12pm Friday 10th February: I was beginning to give up expecting the handicaps to be posted, but patience has finally paid off as some, not all, of the layers got their act together and offered up prices.

Below I will have Day 1 Picks from the Davis Cup and will update this thread over the course of the weekend as ties are completed;

DAY 1 DAVIS CUP PICKS
Juan Monaco - 5.5 games vs Philipp Petzschner: This will be the first time these players are meeting, but I have a feeling the spread is a little too low considering the Argentine player is coming in off an impressive win in the tournament held in Chile last week.


The only reason I can offer for this is the fact that he has had to travel into Europe over the last few days and the fact that this is an away tie for Argentina, but this is more than a winnable contest for Monaco.


Petzschner has not played a lot of tennis in 2012 with early exits in the three tournaments he has entered, and he has never really pulled up any trees on a clay court, going 11-11 in main tour events over the last two seasons.


Monaco doesn't have a great record in Davis Cup for his country, but the clay court should suit him better and I think he should come through 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3.


Juan Carlos Ferrero - 6.5 games vs Mikhail Kukushkin: This is another match where I think the spread would usually be a lot higher, but has been skewed by the fact that Mikhail Kukushkin had such an impressive tournament at the Australian Open.


Juan Carlos Ferrero has seen his best playing days come and go, but he is still a tough test for players on a clay court and that gives him a huge edge here, particularly in front of the passionate Spanish fans.


Last season, Ferrero won a tournament on the surface as well as reaching the Semi Final and Quarter Final in others and is still more than capable of providing a stern test for those who are less comfortable with the red dirt underneath their feet.


Kukushkin falls into that category as his 1-6 record in main tour events last season indicates, and he was heavily beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro and Juan Monaco in Davis Cup action on a clay court too.


A hard court would have made this a much more intriguing contest in my eyes, but I think Ferrero will be too good on a clay court and come through 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.


Roger Federer - 7 games vs John Isner: This will be the second rubber in the Switzerland-USA tie and one that many are looking forward to as Roger Federer plays the opening Davis Cup tie for the first time in a while.


It is clear that Federer is very keen to defend his Doubles Gold Medal at the Olympics this Summer, as well as trying to win a Singles, and his presence has definitely given Switzerland the edge in the tie.


John Isner pushed Rafael Nadal all the way to five sets at the French Open last season so there is a chance that he can spring a surprise, although he has struggled against Federer in the past. They have met twice, both on hard courts, and Isner has fashioned just ONE break point in those matches, losing 5 of the 6 sets they have competed in.


I think Federer will make enough balls back on the service games to suggest he will have chances to break serve and I think that will be the telling angle in this game for him to cover the spread.


The former World Number 1 looked good at the Australian Open and the clay court will only aid him more than it does Isner in this match so I expect he will eventually prove too strong in a 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 victory.


David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: This match intrigued me as David Nalbandian is not the player he used to be and the fact he was beaten fairly comfortably by Florian Mayer at the back end of last season, albeit on a hard court.


However, I think Nalbandian has begun to reserve his best tennis for these Davis Cup ties and he has an impressive 22-5 record in Singles action, going 7-1 in his last 8 rubbers.


Mayer is no slouch on a clay court and has been playing some of the best tennis in his career over the last season, but he has only recently come off an injury and has not played a lot of tennis recently. Nalbandian's return of serve should ensure that Mayer is forced to work hard to win points and I can this being a gruelling encounter for the German where his fitness will be tested to the full.


Nalbandian is coming to the end of a very successful career, and I think he does feel there is still a window open for Argentina to win the Davis Cup, while the clay courts should favour his game.


I expect a couple of close sets to begin, but if Nalbandian can split the first two, I expect him to go on and win in four... 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.


James Ward vs Martin Klizan: This is the second rubber from the Great Britain-Slovakia tie this afternoon and I am going to back the British player to win as the underdog on a fast indoor surface.


Martin Klizan should not be underestimated as his lefty serve alone should cause problems, but he is a player that has not really had a lot of success on the indoor hard courts over the last year, going 9-11 in all tour events (both main tour and Challenger circuits).


Klizan has shown he has the temperament to compete in Davis Cup ties by winning both rubbers against the Ukrainians in the last time for Slovakia, but I think it could be a tough test for him against James Ward in an Arena where has enjoyed some good times.


Ward has really struggled to make an impact on the main tour, although he did manage to qualify for the Australian Open recently. Without Andy Murray, there is a bit more pressure on Ward to win this tie, as Great Britain are unlikely to go through without that, but he has performed well in this position before.


The Brit went 4-1 in Davis Cup ties last year, his only loss coming to Gilles Muller, and this will not be easy. However, he is set as the slight underdog in this one and I think he is worth chancing to at least give Britain a fighting chance to win this tie.


It won't be easy, and could go to five sets, but I'll have a chance on Ward




DAY 1 Picks: Juan Monaco - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7 games @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 2.00 188Bet (2 Units)
James Ward @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)