Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 18th February)

A tough day in the office has to be set aside in what has been a difficult week with two poor days out of three.

That is a disappointment and it did feel like some meat was left on the table with a couple of selections not quite making the grade, but ultimately coming in as winners.

However, the last thirteen months have produced a positive return and that means 'trusting the process' rather than worrying about what may have been.

The opening Picks on Wednesday are concentrating on the Third Round matches in Dubai- the Second Round matches in Doha look awkward with some big spreads set, but not big enough to want to trust the underdog either.

Any selections from the ATP tournaments in Delray Beach or Rio will be added to this thread.

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 games v Janice Tjen: There are going to be questions about the WTA Tour calendar when scheduling consecutive 1000 events on back to back weeks in the Middle East. While the tournament in Doha largely went as planned, there have been a huge number of withdrawals and mid-match retirements here in Dubai as we only get into the Third Round.

Something will have to change, although neither Doha nor Dubai are going to want to hear that the tournaments they run are being downgraded- both are ATP 500 events rather WTA 1000, but even that may not be enough to appease them and a new Council will come together and see how they can help.

Amanda Anisimova has been one of the beneficiaries of a walkover in the Second Round, which means she has only played one match since the Australian Open. Even that match ended with a mid-match retirement when Anisimova had to pull out with an illness, but she has stated she is feeling better and a couple more days of recovery can only help.

This is an important week for Amanda Anisimova who won the title in Doha last year, but who was not able to defend those World Ranking Points last week.

There is some room for improvement in the early season form, but Anisimova is very comfortable on the hard courts and she can get the better of Janice Tjen.

The 23 year old enters the tournament in Dubai under a new career-high World Ranking of Number 46 and this season offers Janice Tjen a big opportunity to really build on that mark. Improving the World Ranking means being able to enter bigger tournaments and Janice Tjen showed how comfortable she is on the hard courts with a huge amount of wins on the surface in 2025.

Of course it should be noted that those were against players of a lower level than what she will be facing at the tournaments she will now be entering and a 5-4 record over the last six weeks suggests this is something of a learning curve. Janice Tjen has won two matches here, which will help the confidence, but she has yet to really get to grips with the return of serve at this level.

The Indonesian player has struggled against the very best players on the Tour and that has led to two straight-forward losses to top 20 Ranked opponents. In those two losses, Janice Tjen has not only struggled to protect the second serve, but she has won just 23% of return points played and someone like Amanda Anisimova can put her under enough pressure to pick up the Breaks of serve needed to cover this spread.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Jaqueline Cristian: Another player who earned a walkover in the Second Round in Dubai is the defending Champion Mirra Andreeva.

She had a dominant run here in 2025 and Mirra Andreeva just reached the Doha Third Round, but there will be some pressure to get as close as possible to defend the title and the Ranking Points. That may not be a big issue for older players, but Mirra Andreeva is still developing and will not want to slip out of the top eight of the World Rankings ahead of the Grand Slams to be played.

The lack of competitive tennis this week may be a potential problem, but Andreeva should be happy enough with the conditions having had so much success at the tournament already.

There has been a lot to like about the level being produced early in 2026 and Mirra Andreeva has a 20-6 record on the hard courts when facing players Ranked outside of the top 20 over the last twelve months. She has won over 49% of the return points played in those matches and the World Number 7 will certainly feel she can put this opponent under some extreme pressure.

Jaqueline Cristian won the first set of her Second Round match without dropping a game before her opponent decided to call it a day.

That means the World Number 39 has played three completed sets in Dubai on her way to the Third Round and Cristian has only dropped two games. However, both of those matches have been against opponents Ranked Number 69 or lower and this is a considerable step upwards for a player who had a 5-5 record on the hard courts before the tournament in Dubai begun.

The year started with a run to the Quarter Final in Adelaide, but it has been tough for Jaqueline Cristian since then with early losses becoming the norm before this event.

Over the last twelve months Jaqueline Cristian has played well on the hard courts, but she is just 1-8 when facing top 20 Ranked players on the surface. In those matches, Cristian has been put under significant pressure when serving, and she has struggled to really make a big impact on the return, which is going to be something that Mirra Andreeva looks to exploit in this Third Round match.

It should be noted that in those eight losses against top 20 Ranked opponents, Jaqueline Cristian would have won enough games to stay within this spread four times.

However that also means she has failed to cover in the other half of those defeats and Mirra Andreeva has covered this spread in seventeen of the twenty hard courts wins produced against players Ranked outside the top 20.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: A really disappointing performance in the Australian Open Quarter Final loss to Elina Svitolina saw Coco Gauff's anger on display when cameras caught her backstage smashing her racquet. She stated in her press conference that she did not want her frustration to be shown to those who look up to her and that was the reason she waited until she had left the court, while other players have not been happy with what they feel was too much intrusion at that opening Grand Slam.

An early defeat in Doha has just kept Coco Gauff out of the headlines, but she showed some character to come through some sticky moments in beating Anna Kalinskaya in the Second Round here.

Despite her own early exit in Doha, Coco Gauff was restored to the American Number 1 spot on the WTA Tour and she will certainly be looking to build on the solid win over Kalinskaya.

Next up is a match against a reinvigorated Elise Mertens who has won all four sets in Dubai by the same 6-2 scoreline as she has cruised through the draw.

Three wins at the United Cup and a run to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open have given the Belgian some real confidence and there is no denying that the overall numbers have been impressive.

It is the first serve in particular that has been a big weapon for Elise Mertens and she will need plenty of those to try and keep the American opponent under some pressure.

Elise Mertens has also won a couple of matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season, which is a big improvement on the 0-5 record against those players in 2025. The second serve has been a weakness in those matches, although Mertens may have more success against the Coco Gauff serve than she has had in the main against those higher Ranked players.

Double Faults have been the big problem for Coco Gauff for some time and that was the case in the Second Round win.

She cannot afford to give away too many points to Elise Mertens, but Coco Gauff will take confidence from the perfect 4-0 record that she has against the World Number 22 on the Tour.

Two of those wins have been on the hard courts, although Coco Gauff and Elise Mertens have not met for a couple of years and that may help the underdog from a mental point of view.

Even with that in mind, Coco Gauff may still find herself coming out on top at key moments and she can do enough to get through to the Quarter Final with a cover of the handicap set for the match.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alejandro Tabilo - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 2.49 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24.90% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 23rd February)

This has been a decent enough week, but there are still those matches that 'got away' and it is very hard to make much sense of the way Marketa Vondrousova was beaten in her Quarter Final against Sorana Cirstea.

Leading 6-2, 5-1, the Wimbledon Champion missed multiple Match Points and failed to serve out the match on three separate occasions in a defeat that will potentially linger for some time.

She will have an opportunity to recover over the next month with some big hard court events to be played, but it is frustrating for the Tennis Picks to not have a stronger day when a loss like that one hits the board.

It was better in other events, but there is still a couple of days to negotiate before this week can be stamped as the first positive one of the season or not.

Selections from the two ATP events in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, if there are any selections, and the week totals will be updated at that time too.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Anna Kalinskaya: A dominant run through the Middle East in the last couple of years would have made Iga Swiatek the favourite to win the tournament in Dubai this week and the World Number 1 has not let anyone down.

With her main rivals all exiting before the Semi Final, Iga Swiatek is now a very strong favourite to pick up the title on Saturday.

However, she made it clear in her post match interview on Thursday that Swiatek is taking nothing for granted and she will have to give Anna Kalinskaya plenty of respect considering the start the Russian player has made to the 2024 season.

She reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open and Kalinskaya has won six matches in Dubai after coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draw. Her win over Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final on Thursday will have really gotten people to take notice and Anna Kalinskaya has only dropped the one set in her run at this WTA 1000 event.

The World Number 40 is making good use of a heavy serve and strong groundstrokes and those really make a big impact on the courts here in Dubai. It is certainly going to make Anna Kalinskaya a threat to Iga Swiatek, although the Polish player is on very strong form and has a pretty solid serve of her own.

The difference is that Iga Swiatek has been a little more productive on the return of serve and she may be a bit more solid than Coco Gauff if she is able to get in front as the American did in the Quarter Final.

One of the best front runners on the Tour, Iga Swiatek can find a way to break down the Anna Kalinskaya game and the return of serve may prove to be a bit too strong for a much improved player. When she was beaten in Melbourne, Anna Kalinskaya just fell away against Qinwen Zheng and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will be able to break her down in this Semi Final.

Cameron Norrie - 3.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: The defending Champion has made serene progress through the first couple of Rounds in Rio de Janeiro, but Cameron Norrie has to be expecting a much sterner test in the Quarter Final.

For starters this will be the first time this week that he will be facing a home player and the crowds in South America can really play a big part in the outcome of matches.

His opponent, Thiago Seyboth Wild, has been doing just enough to make his way through his opening two matches and that will have built up some confidence. While he will need to be a lot better than he was in the First Round, Seyboth Wild was stronger in the Second Round win and has shown plenty of promise on the clay courts over the last twelve months, even if the start to 2024 has been underwhelming.

Serving well will be very important for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just make sure he is keeping his side of the scoreboard ticking over. That is certainly going to at least put some pressure on Cameron Norrie, who has loved the conditions at this event and who has been dominant behind serve so far this week.

Anything below par will give Cameron Norrie the opportunity to attack Thiago Seyboth Wild and the World Number 23 has just shown a bit more sign of returning to his top level.

Beating a home player who has built up some momentum is never easy, but Cameron Norrie did beat Brazilian Thiago Monteiro on his way to winning the title in Rio de Janeiro last year and he can get the better of this home hope.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 17-12, + 5.84 Units (58 Units Staked, + 10.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 22nd)

It has been the most difficult week of the 2019 season for the Tennis Picks and I do think Friday is going to be a pivotal moment for how this one is going to go.

Another poor day will likely mean I am going to give the weekend matches a miss and look to go again with the tournaments to be played next week. One of those will actually begin on Sunday as the ATP Dubai event gets underway, and there are a number of big events being played over the next few days before we enter March and the back to back Masters events to come in North America.


The Friday matches that are selected for the Tennis Picks will be added to this thread and I have been a little disappointed I have not been able to write out full analysis for those selections this week. The one thing I can say is that I have had the strong look into the matches that I have picked even if I am not quite been at the standards set for 2019.

However it was very, very, very unlikely that I would have a positive week for every week during the long Tennis season so you have to take the rough with the smooth. That doesn't mean this week is definitely ending with a negative record, and I fully expect to end the week with some positive results, but I am not going to get too down on myself for what has been a poor few days.


Any selections from the ATP Rio and ATP Delray Beach tournaments will be added to this thread on Friday.


MY PICKS: Mikhail Kukushkin @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-7, - 7.76 Units (22 Units Staked, - 35.27% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 18th)

I've had a few things to do on Sunday which means I have not had the time to write down my analysis for the Tennis Picks from the matches to be played on Monday.

It is a pretty busy day in Dubai where a large majority of the First Round matches are set to be played, but the three ATP events will really get going on Tuesday with the smaller draws being used in those events compared with the WTA Dubai tournament.


MY PICKS: Mikhail Kukushkin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.04 Units (6 Units Staked, + 17.33% Yield)

Seasons 2019: + 48.54 Units (331 Units Staked, + 14.66% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 20th)

There is still a couple of matches to be played on Monday while I am writing this post which will determine whether it has been a good start to the week or not.

I will update the 'weekly total' on Tuesday once all the matches are in the books, but for now I am concentrating on the Tuesday Tennis Picks from the five tournaments being played and the completion of the First Round.


Elise Mertens - 1.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Two young players with a bright future on the WTA Tour meet for the first time in the pro Ranks as Elise Mertens and Catherine Bellis face off in the First Round in Dubai.

It has all the makings of a close match and the layers feel the same with Mertens down as a narrow favourite even though Bellis had a strong run in Doha last week.

Bellis came through the Qualifiers before her run to the Quarter Final, but she has been a little hit and miss on the main Tour with her performances in the main draws she has entered being inconsistent. There is a lot to like about the Bellis game, but she is still developing and someone like Mertens has produced some solid results already in 2018.

The Belgian player won the title in Hobart and then reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and I am not too worried about her early loss in Doha last week. Overall the numbers Mertens is producing are very positive and I think she is going to be the slightly stronger player both in terms of the serve and return.

However this match could easily need the full three sets to decide a winner as Mertens is yet to really control matches from start to finish. I do think she will eventually prevail and also have enough to cover this number of games too.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Anyone who doesn't understand how hard Barbora Strycova can make life for any player on the Tour needs to watch some of the matches in which she competes. Strycova is someone who will work hard until the final point is played while she is also very capable of rallying with the top players.

Angelique Kerber will tell you the same thing despite having a dominant head to head against Strycova.

The German is close to getting back to her very best level, but Kerber continues to produce a vulnerable serve which can see her opponents put her under pressure. That is likely to be the case against Strycova whose movement and defensive skills may extract some errors from the Kerber game and give her chances to break serve and keep this match close.

The reason I am backing Kerber is that her numbers to open 2018 have been very strong on the return of serve and I think she is the superior player off the ground in this match. Her own defensive skills have been close to her highest level and I think Kerber will be able to attack the Strycova second serve which should give her plenty of chances of her own to break serve.

Kerber has also produced slightly better numbers all around on her serve compared with last season which should mean she can hold enough times to work through to the Second Round with a cover of this number of games.


Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: Any player that reaches the top 10 of the World Rankings has to be respected but I still feel there is more Caroline Garcia can get out of her game.

She seems to have got the service side of things going in the right direction, but Garcia's problem remains the return of serve and making sure she is being far more effective on that side of the court. Against the very best players on the Tour I feel that is where Garcia comes up short and perhaps it also makes matches a little more difficult for her than some should be.

Her return will be tested to the full by Lucie Safarova who has continued to produce one of the more effective serves on the Tour. Even in matches against the better players on the Tour Safarova can be tough to break, but we have seen her return game really suffer in those matches too.

That could be the difference in this one as Garcia may not need a lot of breaks of serve to move into a position to cover this number of games. As long as Garcia serves to the standard she has set for herself, I think she can keep Safarova from being able to really get on the front foot against her and that should see her exert the mental pressure which will help create openings.

I think the first set is likely to be very closely contested and I wouldn't be surprised to see a tie-break separate things, but I think Garcia wins the battle of the two solid servers and she can cover this number.


Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: This is the time of the season when Thiago Monteiro seems to play his best tennis and there are a couple of tournaments in his home country where he can thrive. The clay courts are the favoured surface and the conditions in South American should suit Monteiro very much.

His numbers could have been better, but Monteiro is a real battler during this time of the season and that has seen him come back in matches even when it looks like he should be beaten.

Monteiro will need all the fight he has when he takes on Pablo Cuevas who is something of a clay court specialist with his best results coming on this surface. Like Monteiro, Cuevas should enjoy the South American Golden Swing even though he was disappointed to be beaten so early in Buenos Aires at the hands of Gael Monfils last week.

Monfils is a player who has troubled Cuevas throughout their careers, but that should not be the case this week. The Uruguayan has a decent serve which is going to put the pressure on Monteiro, especially with the poor return numbers of the latter, and I think Cuevas has a little more ability on the return to hold the edge in the match.

It is a tough number of games to cover if Cuevas is not at his best and with the way Monteiro should be able to be fight and be energised by the home crowd. However I think ultimately Cuevas will find a couple of more breaks of serve than his opponent which should see him get over this number.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: The South American Golden Swing could not have gone any worse for Pablo Carreno Busta who has lost in his first match in Quito and Buenos Aires.

Last week he was a little unfortunate to lose to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but Carreno Busta has to be hoping to get things turned around having been in poor form for much of the time since the run to the US Open Semi Final.

You would think the return to the clay courts would have helped Carreno Busta who has some very nice numbers on the surface, but so far he has been unable to produce a win.

Carreno Busta could not have asked for better than facing Marco Cecchinato in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro even though the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts and has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw. However Cecchinato has struggled when it comes to playing main draw matches at the ATP level, even on the clay courts, and he has found his serve attacked while being unable to win as many return points as he would like.

That may be the reason for another defeat on Tuesday as Cecchinato is going to be put under pressure by Carreno Busta's ability to return on the clay courts. This time I will be looking for Carreno Busta to just hold himself together mentally in this match and work his way to a relatively straight-forward win in the First Round while covering this number of games.


Dominic Thiem - 5.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: One of the best clay court players in the world continues to underline his status as Dominic Thiem won the title in Buenos Aires last week. He now heads to Rio de Janeiro to win another title and I am not worried about Thiem's fitness at this stage of the season when he tends to play his best tennis.

The first half of the Tour is when Thiem is at his best and even producing top tennis in back to back weeks is not something that concerns me about the Austrian. Some players can struggle for that consistency having played as much tennis as Thiem had to up until the Final in Buenos Aires on Sunday, but he has had considerable success on the Golden Swing in past years.

Thiem has a strong record against Dusan Lajovic which includes a relatively straight forward win here in Rio last year. On that day Thiem was the dominant player on the numbers too and he has shown he is very strong at protecting his serve and finding the pressure to put on opponents on the return of serve on this surface.

I do think Lajovic can be a tough out when he is playing at his best, but Lajovic is going to be have to weather some really difficult moments if he is going to challenge Thiem.

Ultimately I think Thiem is playing at a very high level on this surface and I think he can find the breaks of serve to record an impressive win in this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Elise Mertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 19th)

Last week proved to be a really big one for the Tennis Picks and rounded off with another winner on Sunday which has made a huge hit on the season deficit.

It hadn't started well and I was wondering whether I needed to change what I have been doing, but finally the numbers started producing the results they have in the past and it is a confidence boost in the system used to select my picks.

This week we have five more tournaments beginning in Bucharest, Delray Beach, Dubai, Marseille and Rio de Janeiro with plenty of big names still out on the court. One of those is a big WTA event (Dubai) and another is the second ATP 500 event of the season (Rio) which means there are some big points on offer.

The situation this week will mean that I will generally have any picks from Bucharest, Dubai and Marseille up first with any from Delray Beach or Rio added to the thread. That is mainly down to scheduling and markets being released later for those two tournaments compared with the other three and I will only add any picks that do fit what I want.

Hopefully another solid week like the one that has just been put into the books can be recorded. That may even turn this season completely around and see if I can get into a position before the end of the month. It is a long season so I won't be 'chasing' picks to do that, but will try and keep the momentum behind me in a bid for another good week from the Tour.


Naomi Osaka v Kristina Mladenovic: There is going to be a drop in the World Ranking Kristina Mladenovic holds, but I am still surprised to see her inside the top 20 in those Rankings. That could all change in the weeks ahead of Mladenovic cannot improve her form as she has a boatload of points to defend through to the end of the French Open.

At the moment it is hard to see how Mladenovic is going to turn things around as she has been in poor form for some considerable time now. 2018 has not started much better for the Frenchwoman and I think she is going to be put under enough pressure by Naomi Osaka which can help the young Japanese player take what she will believe is a big scalp.

There is a lot to like about the Osaka game, but there is also no doubt she is still very learning. She hits the ball big and has some solid return numbers which should make life difficult for Mladenovic though and I also don't like the way the latter has been playing in recent weeks.

Mladenovic has surprisingly poor numbers on the hard court and I think her serve can be very vulnerable when she is not feeling at her best. In 2018 it is Osaka who has been producing the better results on the serve and I think that can be important for her to get through this First Round match where there isn't much between the players.

The Frenchwoman is just 4-17 in her last twenty-one matches and I think Osaka's slightly superior numbers in 2018 can lead to a win in this one with Mladenovic perhaps just playing the big points a little cautiously.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It hasn't been the start to the season that Johanna Konta would have wanted, especially after the early loss at the Australian Open. However there were signs of her improved form at the Fed Cup before her two wins in Doha last week.

The numbers are backing that up and I think Konta is facing Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at the right time with the Russian really struggling in the early part of 2018.

Pavlyuchenkova has not served as well as she would have liked, but the bigger concern has to be the poor return numbers. Now she faces an opponent who can be very hard to break down when serving at her best and I am looking for Konta to produce a solid enough serving day to make sure she can earn her place in the Second Round in Dubai.

The courts in Dubai do tend to play faster than most on the Tour and I think both Konta and Pavlyuchenkova hit big enough to cause the other problems. However the issues Pavlyuchenkova is having with her return has to give Johanna Konta the edge in the match and I think she can earn a break more in each set in a straight sets win.

I do think there is more to come from Pavlyuchenkova in the months ahead after a slow start to the 2018 season, but Konta should be too good for her in this First Round match on Monday.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The performances from Albert Ramos-Vinolas during this Golden Swing in South America have not been bad, but he has to be a little better at the big points to make life easier for himself.

I expect Ramos-Vinolas will be able to do that in this match against Rogerio Dutra Silva, although he will have to deal with the home crowd who should be firmly behind the latter.

However the step up to the main ATP level has been difficult for Dutra Silva despite how well he has played in the Qualifiers and Challenger level events. The numbers highlight that with the difficulty Dutra Silva has been able to have in the longer rallies that develop on the clay courts and I expect Ramos-Vinolas to be able to take advantage of that.

The key to this number of games is taking the chances when they are presented and Ramos-Vinolas has not been quite as effective with the break point chances he has had. I do like the fact that he is playing in a third clay court event now which means Ramos-Vinolas should be comfortable heading into this match though, and I think he will prove to be a little too good for Dutra Silva in a straight sets win.


Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: It was a memorable Australian Open for Tennys Sandgren on the court where he made his first big impact at the ATP level.

Things off the court were tougher as some decided to research into the tweets Sandgren had previously put on social media and he suffered something of a backlash. At least he can fly under the radar for a few weeks and concentrate on his tennis, although I won't be surprised if he is dealing with more questions once the Masters events hit Indian Wells and Miami next month.

For now Sandgren has to make use of a new high World Ranking which has meant he can enter events like this on in Rio de Janeiro without having to work through the Qualifiers. The problem is that he has yet to show much capability on the clay courts when he has stepped up to the higher level and now faces something of a specialist in Roberto Carballes Baena who won the title in Quito earlier this month.

The Spaniard has played well in 2018 on the clay courts and he has won a couple of Qualifiers here to keep some of the momentum going which has to help him here.

Of course there is some room for improvement with Carballes Baena needing to do better on the return of serve. He has been serving well enough to keep the pressure on Sandgren and I think the Spaniard can come through with a win and a cover in this one.


Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I remember when Marin Cilic and Carlos Berlocq met in their sole previous match because of the way Cilic was being irritated by the grunts from the Argentinian. At least this time Cilic will know what to expect and I think he will be too good for Berlocq even in his first match on the clay courts.

There are some questions about the adjustment to the clay courts which Cilic has to face compared with Berlocq who has played only clay court tennis this season. However Berlocq has struggled so far in 2018 with a couple of heavy First Round losses before winning two Qualifiers here.

He is going to be faced by a powerful returner in Cilic who was playing at a very high level on the clay courts last season. Cilic is capable of still getting plenty of cheap points off his own serve to keep the pressure on opponents, but it is his return of serve that has proved to be a huge weapon for him and I think that can help him get into a position to win and cover in this First Round match.

It might take a few games to get used to the clay court conditions, but I expect Cilic to move onto a roll once he does and have the majority of the opportunities to break serve.

Berlocq can be very good on his day, but he will have to stay in this mentally if he is going to earn the upset and I just think Cilic will drain him with the pressurised returns and that should lead to enough breaks of serve to cover this number of games.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Playing at home should give Thomaz Bellucci a boost in confidence, but it has been a tough few months for the Brazilian. Injury hasn't helped him, but Bellucci may feel he is about to turn a corner having put a few wins together in Buenos Aires last week.

This is not the best match up for him though as Fabio Fognini has beaten Bellucci in all four previous matches and all of those have come on the clay courts.

The Italian can be a hard player to back with his erratic nature meaning it can be difficult to know what to expect from him on any given day. However he does seem to reserve his best performances for the clay courts and Fognini will feel in a good place mentally in facing this opponent.

Fognini is also someone who can be inspired by the passion of the crowd and it should be a good atmosphere with a home player in this First Round match. I do think Bellucci will have his chances at times as Fognini's serve can be very vulnerable on most surfaces and even more so on the clay courts.

He will have to work hard to protect the serve and I think that is where Bellucci can have some success on the return. However Bellucci's serve is yet to return to the level it once was and I think Fognini is able to win and cover in a match that features a few breaks of serve for both players.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Season 2018: - 6.90 Units (230 Units Staked, - 3% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (February 17th)

It has been a pretty brutal first couple of days in this new week on the Tour for my picks which have not been helped by two players on the way to winning their matches both seeing their opponents retire. I have yet to be the beneficiary of a retirement when a pick looks set to lose, so those picks ending as void coupled with the horrible picks I have made have got this week off to a pretty terrible start.

This is only the Tuesday so there is plenty of chances to recover, but I need a change in fortune for that to happen, especially with some of the stupid mistakes being made by players I have backed. It almost feels like they hit the wall when it looks easier to win, for example check the way Mona Barthel had Daniela Hantuchova completely on the ropes in their match on Monday but still couldn't get the job done.


Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: It has been a long lay off for Ana Ivanovic since her surprising First Round exit at the Australian Open where she was considered a dark horse for the title, but the match with Sabine Lisicki should be one that works well for the Serb.

Being off the Tour can lead to some rustiness in competitive tennis, but Ivanovic has the heavy groundstrokes that can keep Lisicki on the back foot, although she has to serve better when it comes down to the second serve. That has been a weakness in the Ivanovic game for far too long now, although she might not feel the pressure against Lisicki, a player she has dominated in the past.

They met four times last season and Ivanovic won three of those matches, while the exception at Wimbledon was perhaps an expected result for many in favour of Lisicki. The German does have a big game that can cause problems, but she is very erratic and could be on the wrong side of the result in a match where both players will have chances to break serve.

The first set is bound to be tight considering Ivanovic hasn't played for a while, but I expect her to then move away with a 75, 63 win.


Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Lucie Hradecka: Last season was a pretty poor one for Roberta Vinci and there is every chance she could have a tough 2015 upcoming, although the clay courts remain her domain and the surface that will likely prevent a large slip down the Rankings.

The Italian is the World Number 38 but remains almost 100 places better off than Lucie Hradecka who had a wonderful Australian Open. However, she had a decent first Grand Slam of the season in 2014 too before struggling to maintain that form and I do think her game could see the errors extracted from it by Vinci on this surface.

These two players haven't met since 2011 when Roberta Vinci won three matches against Lucie Hradecka including a pretty comfortable win on the clay courts after dropping the first set in that match. I think Vinci will get the better of the longer rallies in this one too and can grind her way to the win.

One concern would be if Hradecka brings her big game to the fore, but I think she would prefer to play someone like Vinci on the faster surfaces and the Italian comes through 64, 64.


Sara Errani - 5.5 games v Teliana Pereira: Like her compatriot, and Doubles partner, Roberta Vinci, Sara Errani has slipped in the Rankings over the 2014 season and is unlikely to recover her form to the extent of being a feature in the World's Top Ten. However, she remains a real threat on the clay courts with her style of play capable of extracting errors out of the best players on the Tour and I expect she will be too strong for home hope Teliana Pereira.

Pereira actually reached the Semi Final here in Rio last season so you have to imagine she will be confident in her chances, although her run came to a stunning halt by arguably the first really good player she met. The Brazilian can't work her way into this event with this match against the Number 1 Seed and Errani remains such a difficult test on the clay courts for the players on Tour that I expect her to win this one going away.

The biggest problem for Errani with a spread like this is her own serve which is limited to say the least and one that will give Pereira a chance to get on the front foot. However, Errani's defences can frustrate players to push for the lines too much and that is where Errani can get away with the serve that is little more than a way for her to start another long rally.

I do think the first set could be tight, but Errani will wear down Pereira in my opinion and come through 64, 62.


Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: I don't think I am the only one who thinks Dominic Thiem has a very bright future on the Tour and I think he should be winning matches like this one against Joao Sousa. Sousa is a very good professional who will take every match very seriously and will put in a full effort which will see him beat players if they are not concentrating, but Thiem should be the better player as long as his focus is on the match.

It has been a difficult start to the 2015 season for Thiem who has only won one match so far, but he has all the tools to up that number very quickly. Of course it is also in contrast to Sousa who has played well in Montpellier and also reached the Third Round at the Australian Open.

Sousa doesn't have a very big game, but he works hard on the court with his defence a key part of his tactics and he can force mistakes from his opponents. However, he is working so hard to maintain his place in matches that he can sometimes lose a bit of gas in the tank and that is where Thiem should take over.

Their previous match came at the Australian Open over twelve months ago and it was a very tight match to be honest. This one looks like it might go three sets too, but I think Thiem can battle through to a 64, 36, 63 win.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: David Ferrer was a little beat up at the Australian Open and the Spaniard continues to slip from the top of the men's game, although he is still capable of producing the tennis he has become known for. He did win the title in Doha, but the lay off could have an affect and give Daniel Gimeno-Traver a chance to perhaps spring a surprise.

And it would be a surprise if the veteran Spaniard who now produces his best tennis on the Challenger circuit is going to beat David Ferrer in this First Round match. The Gimeno-Traver serve is something of a weakness and he is going to have work very hard to keep holding and I think that pressure will eventually crack his chances in this one.

Ferrer is unlikely to take any point off and will make Gimeno-Traver really earn every point he is to win and it will be tough on the clay courts to maintain the rallies if Ferrer is on form. The last few years has seen Ferrer come off the lay off between the Australian Open and the Golden Swing in South America in impressive form as he has won titles in that situation. He has also made a fast start in those tournaments for the main part and Ferrer should be in a position to get clear of Gimeno-Traver in this one.

A tight first set is expected, but Ferrer should pull away for a 64, 62 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 18th)

Monday is usually a quiet day in terms of tournament matches, but Tuesday is when a there is a lot of action to get through the day and it will all begin early in Dubai and go through to Delray Beach deep into the evening.


Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games v Annika Beck: Samantha Stosur is turning 30 at the end of next month and that usually signals a downward trend in a player's performance, especially on the WTA Tour. Over the last twelve months, Stosur has been dropping down the Rankings and seems to be losing more matches that she isn't expected to in that time.

That means the layers are beginning to take fewer chances with her opponents and the prices have become more reasonable on Stosur who has been over-rated somewhat in recent months.

The first serve is still effective, but the second is becoming more attackable, but I am not sure Annika Beck is yet in a position to take advantage of those issues. Coming through the qualifiers would give Beck a good idea of the conditions she will be facing, while she has just celebrated her 20th birthday in the last couple of days after a decent performance in Doha last week too.

However, Beck is still looking to find her consistency on the Tour and I think that is where Stosur should still have a little too much in her locker and come through 64, 64.


Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: It has been a disappointing start to the season for Sabine Lisicki as she had to withdraw from Doha, the second tournament already in 2014 that she has to be withdraw from.

Now she faces an opponent that can frustrate her in Caroline Wozniacki, even if the Dane has shown little to suggest she will get back up the Rankings following her drop in the last eighteen months. Wozniacki lost a close match last week against Yanina Wickmayer, but she had her chances in that match and has the game that can give her the edge in this one.

The power will definitely come from the Lisicki side of the court, but she can be inconsistent at times and can go through poor runs of form that sees her drop a number of games in succession fairly rapidly.

I am also aware that Wozniacki's serve is not really something you can rely upon so she may lose a couple of breaks of serve at times, but I think she finds a way to come through this match 64, 64.


Angelique Kerber v Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic made a fast start to 2014 with a title win in Auckland and reaching the Quarter Final at the Australian Open where she did beat Serena Williams. However, I think a slight niggle affected her game in the loss to Eugenie Bouchard in that Quarter Final and she was a disappointing early loser in Doha last week.

Ivanovic didn't serve well in either match last week and she will have to do better against a player like Angelique Kerber who was still full of smiles and positive feeling despite losing in the Final at Doha on Sunday.

For most of the week, Kerber had been serving well and that may prove to be the difference between the two players in this match. Even the long week under her belt isn't enough to put me off Kerber as she has also won the last two matches against Ivanovic and I think she are more doubts about the latter's form.

It's a tough First Round match and hard to separate the two players on a level playing field, but I think Kerber has been serving better of the two players and will use that to win this match.


Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos: Both Leonardo Mayer and Albert Ramos are comfortable on the clay courts, but it is the former that is showing off the better form in recent weeks and I think he can progress in this First Round match.

Albert Ramos at least put a couple of wins in the bank last week in Buenos Aires which will help his confidence, but Leonard Mayer has reached a Final in the last couple of weeks and it is only Fabio Fognini that has proved too good for him.

Wins over the likes of Tommy Robredo will give Mayer the belief that he can have another decent week in what is always important tournaments for the players who want to move up the Rankings. There will be breaks of serve, but Mayer looks the one that has more form and won the last meeting between these players comfortably last summer.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: He had lost seven Finals in a row, but David Ferrer snapped the run by taking the title for the third time in Buenos Aires and that should give him a shot of belief that could see him go all the way through the draw this week.

To win the event in Rio de Janeiro will mean beating Rafael Nadal, but Ferrer is probably the only player in the draw that will really believe he can do that, and I am expecting a good start from him against a dangerous First Round opponent.

Jeremy Chardy is probably more effective on the hard courts, but he is also fairly accomplished as a clay court player in these types of events.

However, I think Ferrer has the consistency to extract errors and that should be where the difference in the outcome is made... I will look for Ferrer to come through a tight first set 75 and then pull away for a 63 second set and a straight sets win.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Tim Smyczek: A long lay off since the Australian Open is probably the biggest concern for Kevin Anderson in this First Round match against an opponent he has seen off three times before and all with some comfort.

You know what you are going to get from someone like Anderson- he will like to dictate things behind his big serve and use the pressure of holding serve to put his opponent under the cosh and I think that is where he will dominate this match.

Tim Smyczek's best performances remain on the Challenger Tour and he was a comfortable loser against Michael Russell last week.

He was also beaten here in Delray Beach by Anderson twelve months ago and I can see a similar 63, 64 scoreline this time around too.


John Isner - 3.5 games v Michael Russell: Another big server that has had to have some time off is John Isner who was suffering with ankle troubles and is making his first appearance since the Australian Open.

Isner has dominated Michael Russell in the past and the only issue to figure is whether he is ready to return to the court. He has played well on the American hard courts in the past and does have a title under his belt from Auckland, while Isner's serve is always the big leveller even when he is not entirely on form.

There is no doubt that Russell also can't have a lot left in the tank for the Tour and he is coming off a strong week in Memphis which may have taken away some energy for the tournament this week. He hadn't had a lot of success in 2014 before last week and I think the pressure generated by the Isner serve will prove to be the difference.

The first set may be a tight one, but Isner should be too good and come through 76, 63.

MY PICKS: Samantha Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.34 Units (5 Units Staked, + 106.8% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 17th)

Ivo Karlovic couldn't quite complete the title win in Memphis last week, but his run to the Final meant the outright picks produced a profit for the week and has helped the season statistics get back into the black. This week we have another four stops on the Tour and I have outright picks which can be read here.

As always, Monday tends to be a quieter day with a lot of the tournaments completing their qualifying rounds and that is the case in Dubai and Marseille to the extent that I couldn't find picks from either of those tournaments that I was comfortable with.

However, the tournament in Rio de Janeiro is getting straight into the action with the qualifiers concluded over the weekend and I hope I can set up a strong week with the following picks from the two tournaments taking place in North and South America.


Facundo Bagnis v Joao Souza: This is a First Round match between the qualifier from Argentina, Facundo Bagnis, and the home Wild Card hope, Joao Souza, but I have a feeling that the fans may be disappointed with the outcome of the match.

Neither of the players can say they have a lot of experience in playing at the top level of the ATP Tour, but both have had considerable success in the Challenger level so this may end up being decided by which of the two can control their emotions and nerves with more effect.

I think Bagnis does have a couple of things in his favour which surprises me that he has been left as the underdog in this match- the first of those is the fact he has beaten Souza in 4 straight matches, all on the clay courts, including their sole meeting in 2013; the second is he has come through the qualifiers which gives him an edge when it comes to the conditions at this new tournament.

Playing at home may inspire Souza enough to see off these two advantages for Bagnis, but I think the latter may also be able to use the two advantages to settle down a little easier in the match. It will only be a small interest, but I like the underdog in the match.


Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Guilherme Clezar: Another player that has been given a Wild Card because he is a home hope is Guilherme Clezar, but I think it is going to be a big ask for him to beat Federico Delbonis who generally plays at a higher level.

There is no doubt that Clezar has a decent record at the Challenger level, but Delbonis has started producing more consistently in the main ATP tournaments, especially on the clay courts. However, Delbonis has suffered a couple of disappointing losses the last couple of weeks and I do wonder if that will play a part mentally on a young player with setbacks in the manner they have arrived.

The Argentine does have a decent serve which will at least set up his points, but Delbonis might have a slight mental block getting over the line and will be disappointed his last two defeats have come despite winning the first set of the match.

Playing at home may also give Clezar the feeling of nothing to lose from the match, but I think Delbonis will prove a little too good and come through 63, 76.


Feliciano Lopez v Sam Querrey: This has all the makings of a quality First Round match and really feels like the winner of the match could easily go all the way to the Final at Delray Beach this week.

If you like big serving tennis, this is the kind of match for you and chances will likely be limited in both directions to earn crucial breaks of serve, but I don't think the layers have got the right favourite in place unless there is an injury for Feliciano Lopez that is not common knowledge.

Lopez was beaten by Ivo Karlovic last week, but the big Croatian has been in decent form, while Sam Querrey has found a way to lose matches he has no right to be doing. The first of those was in the Davis Cup against James Ward when he inexplicably collapsed, while the loss to Alex Bogomolov last week in Memphis would have been another disappointment after Querrey won the first set.

That lack of confidence makes him an uneasy favourite as far as I am concerned and I was surprised that the layers think he is more likely to win the match. Lopez has a decent serve that can keep the pressure on Querrey and the big advantage will be the lefty going into the weaker backhand wing of the American.

It will likely be a tight match, but a couple of recent collapses from Querrey makes me wonder about his state of mind and I like Lopez to come through.

MY PICKS: Facunda Bagnis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)