The second half of the final World Cup Qualifiers before the Play Offs are played next month will begin on Sunday and we are going to know the majority of nations who are playing in Russia next summer by Tuesday evening.
At the moment 13 of the 32 nations that can Qualify for the World Cup Final are known, but by the end of this next three days of Qualifiers that number will have become 22 of the 32 nations that can make it to Russia. The next few days are very important for a number of nations with the Netherlands effectively out of the World Cup, but who could be joined by the likes of Argentina and Chile who can't make it to the Finals.
Teams like France and Portugal, the two Euro 2016 Finalists still have work to do to finish in the automatic Qualification spots, and others like Italy and perhaps Croatia will have to work their way through the Play Offs.
Big games come thick and fast in the coming days and I will add the final World Cup Qualifier Picks in this thread.
Last week I also wrote a short piece about Manchester United which can be read here. It certainly may be more interesting than sitting through another England game to say the least.
Denmark v Romania Pick: The recent form that Denmark have put together has put them in command of 2nd place in the Group and they will be one of those nations that others will look to avoid in the Play Offs for the World Cup Finals. They are unlikely to win the Group with Poland needing just a point to secure top spot, but Denmark have won 4 in a row and they have pulled themselves into this spot with impressive performances.
Crushing Poland 4-0 at home and beating Montenegro 0-1 away shows what Denmark are capable of and I am not expecting them to slip up for 2nd place now. A point will do it for Denmark, but this is a team playing with confidence and scoring plenty of goals and I do think they will prove too good for Romania.
The away team have to be respected having won 3 of their last 4 games, but they are out of contention in the Group which is a disappointment for Romania. Playing away from home has been a big problem for Romania and they have suffered losses at Poland and Montenegro in their last couple of away games in the Group.
I expect Denmark to inflict a third straight defeat on Romania on their travels and I think the goals being scored makes the whole team very dangerous.
They have banged in four goals in each of their last couple of home Qualifiers including that thumping for Poland, and Denmark should prove too motivated and clinical for Romania. I will back Denmark to win and cover the Asian Handicap in their final Group game and then they can look forward to the Play Off draw which will be made in a few days time.
Lithuania v England Pick: The final World Cup Qualifier for both Lithuania and England is played on Sunday and there isn't a lot on the line for the two teams. At least England should have some motivation to try and put some wins on the board and earn a top Seed for the World Cup Finals, while Lithuania will want to produce what could be their biggest win.
It is hard to see Lithuania doing that considering the poor form they have been in in recent months. Before the 1-1 draw with Malta, Lithuania had lost 6 straight games and that includes a thumping at the hands of Scotland at home.
Lithuania were beaten 0-3 by England in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group too and I do wonder if they are going to be good enough to contain their visitors. The side have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 8 home Qualifiers and England will have a point to prove after being criticised for their performance in the 1-0 win over Slovenia a few days ago.
Gareth Southgate may make some changes to his starting eleven but England should still be too good for Lithuania. The Scotland win here last month is the benchmark for England and the expectation will be that the latter can at least win this one by a couple of goals.
It's hard to know what line up Southgate will pick and England laboured so much against Slovenia that they are hard to trust. However they should be a couple of levels better than Lithuania and I expect that to show up here with the away side winning with a comfortable margin on the day.
Poland v Montenegro Pick: The defeat in Denmark looks to be only real blip for Poland on the way to the World Cup Finals held in Russia next June and I fully expect them to earn their place in that tournament on Sunday evening.
Poland should have too much for Montenegro who can't afford to bide their time as they have to win and hope Denmark lose if they want to finish 2nd in the Group. It is a big ask for Montenegro just days after losing at home to Denmark which has put them in this poor position in the Group and the Montenegro players may just have lost a bit of heart.
Playing a Poland team who have been dominant at home in the last couple of Qualifying Groups is not ideal for Montenegro despite the solid results the latter have had away from home. Prior to the last fifteen months, Montenegro had not been the best travellers in Qualifiers and I think Poland have the quality in the final third to hurt them in this one.
If Montenegro have any belief, they will have to push forward in search of goals and that should pave the way for Poland to exploit spaces on the counter attack. Poland will also want to avoid any undue pressure by encouraging Montenegro in this one and potentially opening the door for an upset loss that may give Denmark a chance to steal top spot.
I can see Poland looking to dictate things from the off and they have been very good at home in recent Qualifiers. Poland have scored plenty of goals and I will be looking for them to win this one by a couple of goals on the day as they counter attack a Montenegro side who are desperate for a win to keep their World Cup Finals dreams alive.
Slovenia v Scotland Pick: A really poor start to the World Cup Qualifiers saw Gordon Strachan on the brink of leaving his post as manager of Scotland, but they have been very good down the stretch and now hold their destiny in their own hands. However I wouldn't be rushing out to try and purchase Scotland Play Off tickets just yet with one more tough World Cup Qualifier in this Group to come.
They face a Slovenia team who were just minutes away from earning a draw at Wembley Stadium against England and who arguably created the better of the chances through the first hour of that game. Much of the success Slovenia have had in the Group is by being difficult to break down, but the team have not been able to produce a full performance in their away games to be left in a difficult position.
Slovenia now have to win and hope Slovakia fail to beat Malta at home and that will be the only way they can finish 2nd in this Group. A Slovakia win ends their chances and Scotland may hope an early Slovakia game sees the news filter down to the players and perhaps see Slovenia lose some competitive fire.
It is difficult to know how players will respond if they do hear Slovakia are winning but I do think Slovenia will be encouraged by being at home. They will likely come out with more attacking intent knowing a win is the only way they can have a chance of finishing 2nd in the Group and we could see a more entertaining game than the layers may think.
The layers are not expecting goals in this one, but the situation should mean both Slovenia and Scotland have to try and get on the front foot. Slovenia have not conceded a home goal which makes them very dangerous, but they will have to be more positive in this one as they look for the three points, while Scotland will know it's win or bust for them in terms of 2nd place in the Group.
Any goal will open up this game and I do think Slovenia getting forward will give Scotland a chance to counter. While the Slovenia home games have not featured a lot of goals in this Group, all 4 Scotland away games have produced at least three goals shared out even when the layers have not expected it (the price here is same as it was for at least three goals in the Lithuania-Scotland game last month).
I can't see Slovenia giving up even if they were to fall behind and the same can be said for Scotland as two teams attack until the end of the ninety minutes to try and finish 2nd in the section. There should definitely be the spaces to exploit for the teams in the final twenty minutes of this one and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out.
Moldova v Austria Pick: Dead rubbers are familiar at this time of the year in the World Cup Qualifiers as teams play out the final fixtures in this Qualifying campaign. That is the case for Moldova and Austria who look set to finish in 6th and 4th place respectively in the Group.
That does make it harder to get a feel for how teams will approach the fixture, although it is likely that Austria are the superior team in this one. The confidence can't be in a great place considering how poorly this Qualifying section has gone for Austria, but Moldova have really struggled at home where they have lost 8 of 9 Qualifiers now.
Moldova have been beaten by the top three nations in this Group at home and it would be a surprise if they are able to earn another result against Austria after producing a 1-1 draw in Vienna. It does have to be said it is hard to trust Austria considering how they have played in the Group, but they showed they were good enough to win in Georgia and this is an 'easier' place to visit.
I would keep in mind that Austria don't have anything to really play for, but I will back them to finish this campaign on a high after beating Serbia on Friday and look for them to follow it up in Moldova. I will look for Austria to win by a couple of goals on the day by backing them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Serbia v Georgia Pick: All of the expectation is on the shoulders of Serbia as the fans will be looking for a confirmed place at the World Cup Finals at the end of this one. However that can build pressure on the players who may feel they have missed one shot of securing top spot in the Group by losing in Austria.
They are very much the favourites to beat Georgia who were 0-1 losers to Wales at home on Friday, but Serbia can't afford to underestimate a team who have shown considerable toughness in the section already.
Georgia were beaten narrowly in Ireland, but they have drawn in Wales and Austria so they will believe they can offer resistance to Serbia who will be anxious to win the game. That can put pressure on the home team to make the right passes in the final third and Georgia can be given additional respect when noting they only lost 2-1 in Germany in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.
This is also a nation who beat Spain 0-1 in a friendly ahead of the Euro 2016 Finals and I think the away team can be backed on the Asian Handicap. Serbia did crush Moldova 3-0 at home, but they are only 2-2-0 at home in the Group and this has the makings of a tight game.
Backing Georgia with the start should return half the stake at the very least.
Ukraine v Croatia Pick: There are a couple of these World Cup Qualifiers on Monday where two teams are playing one another with 2nd place in the Group up for grabs. Like the Wales versus Republic of Ireland game, this is another one where both teams have to think they need to win the fixture if they want to earn a Play Off spot next month.
Another similarity with that other fixture is that one of the teams involved here in the game between Ukraine and Croatia knows that anything less than a win is curtains for them. Where Croatia will look at a point as a potentially being good enough to make the Play Offs, Ukraine know they have to win and that mindset can make a difference.
Ukraine have been a strong team in recent home Qualifiers and that has to give them confidence that they have enough to win this fixture. They are perhaps not as familiar to football fans around Europe as Croatia who have some real talent in the squad, but Ukraine have been playing the better football of late.
Where Ukraine have won 7 of their last 9 home Qualifiers and have won 3 in a row in this Group, Croatia have dropped back to back away Qualifiers in Turkey and Iceland. They were also held to a 1-1 home draw with Finland and I am not sure Croatia will be able to switch things back on.
The draw doesn't look like it will be much good to either nation in all honesty, and that should make this another fun fixture to watch. However goals have been a problem for both teams and I think the first goal could be critical and on current form and with home advantage you have to lean towards Ukraine in getting that.
Backing Ukraine on the Asian Handicap at odds against knowing the stake will be returned in the event of a draw looks a very attractive price. Croatia may have the Luke Modric's and Ivan Perisic's who are familiar to fans, but the team ethic of Ukraine may be enough as it has been for Turkey and Iceland in home wins over Croatia and I will back the hosts to steal 2nd place and consign Croatia to watching the World Cup Finals on television next summer.
Wales v Republic of Ireland Pick: During the build up to this game you may hear about the importance of finishing 2nd in the Group with the assumption being that Serbia will beat Georgia and earn their spot at the World Cup Finals next June.
That means it is a direct fight between Wales and the Republic of Ireland for 2nd place in the section and I do think there has been some information that may have been lost on the fans. There are NINE World Cup Qualifying Groups in the UEFA section, but only EIGHT 2nd placed teams will be competing in the Play Offs next month.
What may have been lost for fans of these two nations is that currently Wales are right on the brink of finishing as the ninth team and a draw might be good enough to finish 2nd in the Group but not enough to earn a Play Off spot. You have to assume that if I know that, Chris Coleman and the management staff are aware of the situation and that makes this a tougher game for Wales than simply attempting to avoid defeat.
It is much easier for Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane who will be telling their players anything less than a win means the World Cup dream has come to an end.
Effectively it is the same situation for Wales where the draw is only going to be good enough if the Ukraine versus Croatia game in another Group also finishes in a draw and with the number of goals scored in that draw being the same or fewer than the number Wales score.
While I am expecting this to be a tense game where neither team can afford to make a mistake, the situation where both teams need to win could actually make it a little more open than the managers would want. The layers are certainly not expecting a lot of goals with Wales missing Gareth Bale and Ireland perhaps not being the most pleasing team to watch.
However the Ireland away Qualifiers have seen 4 of the last 7 finish with three or more goals and this is a game where the teams may have to take risks throughout the contest. The draw is not likely to be a result which suits either team which should mean more attacking intent is produced and Wales did show decent enough quality going forward a few days ago against Georgia, but also some defensive vulnerability.
The situation both teams find themselves in certainly makes it feel like risks will be taken by two teams that are not normally associated with that kind of football. There should be spaces to exploit in the second half, like there were in the Slovenia vs Scotland game on Sunday, and the situation suggests backing at least three goals to be shared out could be much more likely than the layers believe.
France v Belarus Pick: Barring something as incredible as France's goalless draw with Luxembourg happening again, the home team should comfortably make their way through to the World Cup Finals on Tuesday.
Lightning doesn't usually strike twice in the same place, but France will have to be a little better in front of goal than they were in their 0-1 win in Bulgaria a few days ago.
In all honesty Bulgaria are a decent home team as they have shown over the last fifteen months and the win was a very good result for France. Playing at home against a Belarus team who have struggled on their travels should be a much more comfortable evening for the French and I think they win in dominant style.
Take away the goalless draw with Luxembourg and France have scored 10 goals in their other three home games in the Group. They have scored four times against both the Netherlands and Bulgaria at home and France have the talent to do the same to Belarus.
That is added to by the fact that Belarus have conceded four times in losses at the Netherlands and Sweden and this talented France forward line should be able to take control of this match too. Belarus conceded three times in their 1-3 home defeat to Netherlands at the weekend too and I am looking for France to dominate proceedings and back up their win in Bulgaria.
It is always a challenge for a professional team to hammer others at the international level, but I think a motivated France can score at least four times in a victory on Tuesday at a decent looking price.
Netherlands v Sweden Pick: This was supposed to be the game that would give the Netherlands one last chance to help them move above Sweden into a Play Off spot in the Group. They looked to be doing all they could to make it a possibility, but Sweden's thumping of Luxembourg on Saturday has ended the hopes of the Netherlands.
Barring a win by a seven goal margin for the Netherlands it will be Sweden who have at least a 2nd place finish in the Group.
There is more on the line for Sweden who have a chance to potentially finish above France in the Group if they can win and France fail to beat Belarus at home. That doesn't look a realistic possibility for both things to happen, but football can throw in some strange results and Sweden can have a free shot at winning this game against a demoralised Netherlands.
However I do think Holland will look to be positive earlier and they have played well at home in the Group outside of their defeat to France. Big wins over Bulgaria, Belarus and Luxembourg coupled with the fact Sweden have lost in France and Bulgaria may give the Netherlands the edge in this fixture.
Losing out on a World Cup spot has to hurt the Netherlands and perhaps even see some of the younger players in the squad be given a chance to shine. However I think Dick Advocaat will send out a positive team and I do think they are the superior team to Sweden and can win the head to head against this nation with a victory here following the 1-1 draw in Solna.
I will back the hosts to earn a Pyrrhic victory on Tuesday.
Portugal v Switzerland Pick: There are not many World Cup Qualifiers in the UEFA section with a lot on the line as we complete the initial Group games on Tuesday. That is not the case in Lisbon where Portugal and Switzerland will battle it out for a place in the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer.
Portugal know they have to win if they want to top the Group with the superior goal difference over Switzerland giving them the edge. However the Swiss will head to Lisbon having won 7 of their last 8 away Qualifiers knowing any positive result will be enough to finish ahead of the European Champions and consign them to a place in the Play Offs next month.
It should be a tense evening as Switzerland try to work out whether they should stick or twist knowing a draw is a good enough result for them. This is a nation that have become very good at dealing with the Qualifying campaigns before having more issues in the Finals of those tournaments, while Switzerland have to be respected for being unbeaten in 15 games overall.
However I do also think this Portugal team have the confidence that any European Championship winner would have. They have scored plenty of goals at home with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the way for them and Portugal will feel they can eventually wear down Switzerland here.
I feel the same way and I think Portugal will prove to be a little too good for their visitors on Tuesday. They were beaten in Switzerland, but didn't have Cristiano Ronaldo that day and I think the goals scored since that defeat shows how much stress is going to be on the Switzerland defence.
It wouldn't surprise me if Portugal are able to put an exclamation point on the win late in the game as Switzerland are perhaps caught chasing the game and I will back Portugal to cover the Asian Handicap here.
Brazil v Chile Pick: There has to be some conspiracy theorists out there that have to believe Brazil will have no intention of winning this final World Cup Qualifier against Chile knowing a defeat will only increase the pressure on Argentina to finish in the top five in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group.
However I don't think the players will be concerned about all that and will be giving a full effort to win their last home game in the Qualifiers after drawing a couple of games in a row. There is the issue of Brazil having played in the altitude of Bolivia just a few days ago which may have sapped some energy, but I don't believe the players will lie down for Chile.
There is plenty of pressure on Chile too as they will know a 2-0 loss here puts them in a precarious position, while they have everything to gain by avoiding defeat which would give them a Play Off spot at the very least. Chile have not been at their best away from home in the Group where Chile have gone 2-1-5 so far and I think this is a very tough game for them.
Instead Chile could be looking at the other results in the Group and hoping things have gone their way. A lack of motivation in the Brazil squad is a concern, but this has been the stand out team in the Qualifiers and they are 7-1-0 at home in the Group. I think Brazil can earn another victory here to finish the Qualifiers in the right way and put Chile in a vulnerable spot in the Group where they are hoping other nations have not earned the results to put one of the dark horses for World Cup success out of the tournament before the Finals even begin.
Ecuador v Argentina Pick: It all comes down to one game for Argentina who have been a massive underachiever in the World Cup Qualifiers which means they are on the brink of missing out on the World Cup Finals for the first time since 1970. For a team that has the attacking talent Argentina do and who finished as Runners Up in the last World Cup Finals, it would be an immense disappointment to miss out.
Currently they are outside the top five in the South American Qualifying Group with 5th place offering a team the chance to have a Play Off against New Zealand for a place in Russia next summer. Anything less than a win would mean it is all over for Argentina and the only hope they have is to win in Ecuador on Tuesday.
The home team have already seen their World Cup hopes go up in smoke thanks to losing their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers and that has to be an encouragement for Argentina. However there is a reason Argentina are also outside the top five and that is because they have won just 2 of their last 10 Qualifiers and none of their last 5 away from home.
The draw doesn't look like it will be a good enough result for Argentina with the fixtures other teams have and they have to know it is anything but easy to win here. Ecuador have lost their last couple of home Qualifiers, but they would love to play spoiler to end this Group and Argentina have not had a lot of success in recent Qualifiers here.
Ecuador are unbeaten in 3 home Qualifiers against Argentina and they had won back to back home games against them before the 1-1 draw in the last set of Qualifiers. They will play with nothing to lose, but I also expect Argentina to show a little more composure in the final third which has surprisingly been the weakness of this squad.
I think this could be a rare Argentina game that has more excitement than the majority of their Qualifiers have had. The way Ecuador approach games should mean they give this a good go and Argentina will have to take risks themselves to win the game and ensure a top five finish.
Goals have been a problem for Argentina but they have Lionel Messi and I will look for this game to feature at least three goals shared out.
Trinidad and Tobago v United States Pick: For a little while it looked like the United States may miss out on an automatic place at the World Cup Finals but now they are just a point away from securing a spot in Russia next summer. Facing the weakest team in the Group, albeit away from home, should be good enough for the United States to earn a result that ensures they finish in 3rd place.
At the moment the United States are only 2 points clear of both Honduras and Panama, but the 4-0 win over Panama means they are at least 7 goals clear of the teams below them. That should mean a point is enough for the United States who have not won any of their 4 away World Cup Qualifiers in this final Group and the side have drawn 3 in a row on their travels.
It is hard to think the United States can't at least earn a point here against Trinidad and Tobago who have lost their last 6 Qualifiers overall and have been beaten in 3 of 4 home Qualifiers in the section. However none of those losses have come easily with only Costa Rica winning by more than a single goal margin courtesy of an injury time second goal.
That could happen here, but I am not anticipating Bruce Arians taking risks for the United States late in the game. They should be leading at that point, but once the United States go in front I am expecting them to try and shut down their opponents knowing a draw would still be good enough for them.
Trinidad and Tobago host the United States in a home Qualifier eleven months ago which ended in a goalless draw. They have also hosted the United States in 6 previous home Qualifiers and Trinidad and Tobago have avoided defeat in half of those games, while all 3 losses have come by a single goal margin.
The situation feels like one where backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap is the way to go. The United States would be happy for a draw, but I don't see them pushing to win by a clear margin once they get in front and playing in Trinidad and Tobago has been difficult for the likes of Mexico and Costa Rica as well as the United States in recent years.
We are getting more than goal start on the Asian Handicap which means only a big United States win will see this come in as a loss. I think this will be close and I will take the start.
MY PICKS: Denmark - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Slovenia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Austria - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Georgia + 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wales-Republic of Ireland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
France Over 3.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Netherlands @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Portugal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brazil @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ecuador-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Trinidad and Tobago + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label October 8-10. Show all posts
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Sunday, 8 October 2017
Thursday, 8 October 2015
College Football Week 6 Picks 2015 (October 8-10)
By putting up my picks when I did, I missed the Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread moving up one more point, a point that proved to be the difference between them covering as the underdog at Clemson and not covering.
That is only a point I am mentioning because it would otherwise have been a fifth straight winning week from the College Football picks, but unfortunately now means a first losing week. The season totals are still very much in the positive, but I do think that is a 'miss' and hopefully not the start of a losing trend.
Last week was also a big one in terms of separating those teams that were hoping to get involved in the Play Off picture and those who might just have been knocked back irreversibly. The games get bigger and bigger as the regular season moves on with many more Conference games that will end up playing a big part in determining the final four to enter the Play Offs and this week will likely be no different.
My updated Play Off Ranking after Week 5:
1) Ohio State Buckeyes- Until the defending Champions are beaten, they can't be ignored for a Play Off spot even if they haven't played well since the opening week win at Virginia Tech.
2) TCU Horned Frogs- Some will have picked the Baylor Bears above TCU because of their performances against Texas Tech, but I think Baylor picked the bones of a team that were suffering an emotional letdown after missing a big upset against the Horned Frogs.
3) Florida State Seminoles- The ACC Champion will likely earn a Play Off spot as long as they remain unbeaten, but the Seminoles have a big test this week when they host the Miami Hurricanes.
4) LSU Tigers- One of two unbeaten teams in the SEC West, but their big test will come when visiting the Alabama Crimson Tide next month.
Looking In- Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan State Spartans, Clemson Tigers, USC Trojans, Baylor Bears and Utah Utes.
That is only a point I am mentioning because it would otherwise have been a fifth straight winning week from the College Football picks, but unfortunately now means a first losing week. The season totals are still very much in the positive, but I do think that is a 'miss' and hopefully not the start of a losing trend.
Last week was also a big one in terms of separating those teams that were hoping to get involved in the Play Off picture and those who might just have been knocked back irreversibly. The games get bigger and bigger as the regular season moves on with many more Conference games that will end up playing a big part in determining the final four to enter the Play Offs and this week will likely be no different.
My updated Play Off Ranking after Week 5:
1) Ohio State Buckeyes- Until the defending Champions are beaten, they can't be ignored for a Play Off spot even if they haven't played well since the opening week win at Virginia Tech.
2) TCU Horned Frogs- Some will have picked the Baylor Bears above TCU because of their performances against Texas Tech, but I think Baylor picked the bones of a team that were suffering an emotional letdown after missing a big upset against the Horned Frogs.
3) Florida State Seminoles- The ACC Champion will likely earn a Play Off spot as long as they remain unbeaten, but the Seminoles have a big test this week when they host the Miami Hurricanes.
4) LSU Tigers- One of two unbeaten teams in the SEC West, but their big test will come when visiting the Alabama Crimson Tide next month.
Looking In- Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan State Spartans, Clemson Tigers, USC Trojans, Baylor Bears and Utah Utes.
Week 6 Picks
Can Week 6 give the picks a bounce back after the disappointing end to Week 5? I don't usually like playing too many of the Weekday games because I never seem to get a great read from them, as shown by the Miami Hurricanes loss at the Cincinnati Bearcats last Thursday, but I can't let that one week deter me if I feel the pick is right.
That is the case in Week 6 too when the picks will begin with a big Pac-12 Conference game in California.
Picks will be added through the next couple of days ahead of the full schedule on Saturday so check back before then to see a full rundown of those picks.
Washington Huskies @ USC Trojans Pick: The USC Trojans know they can overcome their one loss to the Stanford Cardinal and still play in the National Championship Play Off if they can win out the rest of the season. That would see them win the Pac-12 Conference and most would have forgot the loss to Stanford as the Trojans will likely have beaten them in the Conference Championship Game.
They can't overlook the Washington Huskies as they come off the bye as there will be some emotion on both sidelines- Chris Peterson was turned down for the USC Head Coaching role, but replaced Steve Sarkisian as Washington Head Coach after the latter landed the USC job.
That means Sarkisian will have recruited many of the players in the Washington team which can work in two ways- he should be familiar with what they offer, but also could fire up those players to show their former Head Coach what he left for the Huskies in terms of talent.
On the field it is the USC Trojans Offense that is the standout unit, although going up against the tough Washington Defense that slowed the California Golden Bears down two weeks ago. The Trojans do have a balanced Offense though and I expect they have the most success of the two Offensive units.
I just think USC will have more third and manageable distances to convert while Washington could be in third and long, although the Trojans will know this is a Defense that can turn the ball over which can enable them to keep this game competitive.
Three of the last four games between these teams have been decided by ten or fewer points, although the last game here saw USC blow out Washington. USC are a strong home favourite, going 6-3 against the spread in that spot under Sarkisian, but Washington have to be respected having gone 3-1 against the spread as the road underdog since Peterson arrived.
However, USC are the stronger team and I expect them to pull away and win by twenty-one points.
Oklahoma Sooners v Texas Longhorns Pick: Charlie Strong is under pressure as Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns and another big loss in this Red River Rivalry to follow the beat down handed out by the TCU Horned Frogs might make his role as Head Coach under the spotlight.
They are facing the under-rated Oklahoma Sooners this week and while I expect the Sooners to have their way Offensively, I am also looking for a big game from Jerrod Heard for Texas. He hasn't thrown the ball that well, but he can help control the clock on the ground and that makes this a big number of points to cover for the Sooners.
No doubt the Sooners are the better team and a dark horse to make the National Championship Play Off, but they haven't covered in their last two games against Texas with the Longhorns as double digit underdogs. Both of those games have seen the Longhorns dominate the yardage and I expect a much more competitive outing than their Week 5 performance unless the players have given up on Charlie Strong.
Texas can put everything into this game ahead of their bye and the public might be pounding the Sooners in Vegas, but the spread has moved down from the opening line with the sharps on the side of the Longhorns. I am on that side too as I expect a vast improvement in terms of effort in this one and I'll take the points.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ WKU Hilltoppers Pick: This is a big Conference-USA game between two teams that will be expecting to challenge Marshall for the East Division title. Both have played well against Power 5 Conference teams in this season already and I think they are lot closer matched than the layers who have given the home team over a Touchdown start on the lines.
I can understand where the line has been made considering how well the WKU Hilltoppers have played in their last couple of wins, two blow out victories at that. However, Middle Tennessee are a much better team than the Rice Owls or the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks and I expect them to be able to throw the ball effectively against this Secondary.
Of course the Hilltoppers will be able to move the chains effectively too and this could be a shoot-out similar to their last four games which have all been very competitive to the final whistle. Those four games have been decided by a combined twelve points and I wouldn't be surprised if the team who holds the possession last is able to pull the victory in this one.
The road team has played well in this rivalry game and I like the points with Middle Tennessee.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Iowa Hawkeyes Pick: Both of these teams are off huge Conference wins in impressive fashion and so the emotional letdown that might have been expected can be balanced out for both teams. I'd give the edge to Iowa Hawkeyes in terms of the impressiveness of their win in Week 5, although the Illinois Fighting Illini will feel confident they can improve on the six wins they achieved last season.
One edge that Illinois might have is that Iowa have a very big game against the Northwestern Wildcats next up on deck and might look at that one as a potential Big Ten West decider. This is Homecoming for Iowa so I expect the focus to still be there, but Illinois have a bye and don't have to look ahead to a potential Division deciding game which should give them the edge.
Both Defenses are definitely the stronger units for both teams and a potential low-scoring game has to favour the double digit points that Illinois are being given. The last time they played here was a four point win for the home team, although I am a little nervous playing Illinois considering they were whipped in their one road game.
The Hawkeyes are just 8-13 against the spread as the home favourite in recent years, and they were just 2-7 against the spread as a home favourite being asked to cover double digits in terms of points before this season. Iowa have covered twice in that spot this year, but I don't envision a lot of points in this one and backing the Fighting Illini with the points looks the call.
Duke Blue Devils @ Army Black Knights Pick: The Duke Blue Devils have had their issues Offensively, but David Cutcliffe is not just a classy person but he is a top Head Coach. A lot of people might not have heard of the personal letter Cutcliffe wrote James Connor of the Pittsburgh Panthers when the Running Back was lost for the season with an injury, but it just goes to show what kind of a man the Head Coach is.
I have a lot of respect of how competitive he has made Duke on a football field even though they are more known for the basketball side of things and they are well on their way to another winning season.
Having played the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, and beaten them convincingly, the triple option run by the Army Black Knights won't surprise this Defense. It has only been two weeks since that game against Georgia Tech so preparation won't be a problem and I expect the Blue Devils to slow down Army's Offense to the extent of being able to cover this number.
Duke have also improved to 3-1-1 against the spread as the road favourite so are clearly prepared effectively while they won by 16 in their last road game at Army back in 2009.
The Black Knights played a strong game at Penn State last week, but might be short this week and I like Duke to win by at least two Touchdowns while finding an Offensive groove against this Black Knights Defense.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ LSU Tigers Pick: This was a game that was scheduled for South Carolina, but flooding in the area has meant the switch has been made to Death Valley as the LSU Tigers agreed to host the game. That's good news for the Tigers who have the inside track to the SEC Championship Game as we stand and the spread made a big jump when it was announced they were going to host the game.
Perhaps too big a jump in all honesty and I like the Gamecocks keeping this closer than the layers and the public may think even if they aren't going to have too many answers to Leonard Fournette in the backfield. The Running Back looks a prime contender for the Heisman Trophy and looks certain to become the fastest player to reach 1000 yards on the ground following this game.
I expect Fournette to perhaps get close to another 200 yard game on the ground and he has been able to take all the pressure off the passing game. South Carolina can't stop the run so Fournette will have a big game, but LSU might be looking ahead to a huge game against unbeaten Florida next week.
South Caroline have no ambitions of a National Championship this season, and they will want to give the home fans something to smile about after the hardships of recent days. The Gamecocks haven't been the strong covering road underdog that I would have liked to have backed, but the Florida game looms large for the Tigers and Les Miles might call off the dogs allowing a backdoor cover for the Gamecocks in this one.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Both teams have had some crushing losses in the last couple of weeks that have damaged the expectations they had coming into the season. Tennessee Volunteers somehow blew a big lead to lose at Florida again and then followed that up with a home loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks to effectively end their chances of playing for the SEC Championship.
There was a real belief they could win the SEC East this season and another loss to the Georgia Bulldogs would end those hopes for good and perhaps put some pressure on Butch Jones as Head Coach. However, the Bulldogs also have to deal with the fallout of an embarrassing home defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide in a game they were FAVOURED to win.
Georgia have won five straight in this series including their last two visits to Knoxville although the last two games have been won by three points each time.
The key for me here is I think the Georgia Defensive unit is the better of the two involved in the game and I think Nick Chubb will be able to have a big game running the ball. Turnovers have been an issue for both teams, but Chubb keeping Georgia moving the chains looks to be the key match up and one that can take the Bulldogs to the win and keep them in the hunt in the SEC East.
Mark Richt has led Georgia to a 5-1-1 record against the spread off a loss in the last couple of years. I also think three losses in four weeks have taken a toll on the Tennessee Volunteers and will look for Georgia to cover this week having backed Alabama against them in Week 5.
Navy Midshipmen @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Brian Kelly messed up his maths last week which eventually cost the Notre Dame Fighting Irish their unbeaten record. It would take something special for them to be invited into a four team Play Off for the National Championship now and Kelly has a job on his hands to pick up his team following the two point loss in Clemson.
I haven't hidden my admiration for the Navy Midshipmen this season so it is no surprise I am going to take the points for them to keep this competitive.
Prior to Thursday, I would have thought Notre Dame could potentially look ahead to the USC game next week, but the Trojans haven't been as good as advertised and the Fighting Irish will recognise there is an unbeaten team in front of them. Notre Dame have won four straight in the series, but they have been made to work hard the last couple of years and this might be the most experienced Navy team of recent years.
The Midshipmen Defense has played very well and I think they can prevent Notre Dame running away with it on that side of the ball. The triple option is familiar to Brian Kelly and the Notre Dame Defense, but Navy have played very well and a flat Notre Dame team from last week may struggle to cover.
Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Georgia State Panthers Pick: It is between Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Georgia Southern Eagles as to which of those teams is the best in the Sun Belt Conference and that game between those schools in two weeks looks huge.
It will only matter if both can keep winning their Conference games and I think Appalachian State demolish the Georgia State Panthers, even if the latter have surprised by winning their first Conference game.
That's one victory Georgia State would have enjoyed, but now they face the best in the Conference and I think they find it difficult to slow down this Offensive power. While Appalachian State should be able to move the chains however they like, Georgia State might be stuck in third and long situations where the Mountaineers can get the pressure up front to slow down drives.
Last season it ended up being 44-0 to Appalachian State and while this will be closer, I still like the Mountaineers to cover the double digit mark.
Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: Both teams have looked very impressive in the early goings of the season and both have big games on deck so will want to maintain that momentum. The Michigan Woverines and Northwestern Wildcats have both made unbeaten starts to Big Ten Conference play and both have relied on a strong Defensive unit to propel them.
Even the one loss that Michigan suffered at the Utah Utes doesn't look so bad when you consider how well the Utes have been doing and they are the favourites to win the Pac-12 North.
What do I think will make the difference in this game? I think the Michigan Defense is the more talented of those units and I expect them to shut down the Northwestern Offense, while I also think the Wolverines get more out of their Offense. When you combine those factors, it is easier to pick the home team and Jim Harbaugh has guided his team to 2-1 against the spread as the home favourite.
I can imagine this first half to be really tight, but Michigan to wear down Northwestern as Jim Harbaugh teams seem to do which leads to a stronger second half. De'Veon Smith should be in for Michigan at Running Back and I expect to put up some decent second half numbers and help the Wolverines go into the big game with Michigan State next week in a fine place mentally.
Washington State Cougars @ Oregon Ducks Pick: When I looked at the numbers being released this week, I immediately looked at this one between the Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars and felt it was too big a line for Oregon to cover.
This is not the same Ducks team we have been used to seeing in recent seasons and injuries haven't helped their cause, while the last time they played at home saw them blown out by the Utah Utes. That's not to say Washington State are as good as the Utes, but a Mike Leach team will score plenty of points and they have won a tough game at Rutgers while pushing the California Golden Bears all the way.
I like the Golden Bears a lot so was impressed by what Luke Falk was able to do at Quarter Back to try and keep up with Jared Goff. I expect Falk to have another big game against a Ducks Secondary that has struggled, while the Cougars Defense can pressure the Quarter Back and play the run better than you might expect.
I can see Washington State stopping some of the Oregon drives and scoring points themselves so getting three scoring drives of a head-start on the point spread looks wide of the mark. Washington State are 9-2 against the spread as the road underdog over the last two seasons and they were 'only' beaten by seven in this game last season.
Add in the fact that Oregon could easily look ahead past the lowly Washington State team to a Washington Huskies team that just knocked off USC on the road and I like the points.
East Carolina Pirates @ BYU Cougars Pick: You have to give the BYU Cougars credit for battling through injuries in the early portion of the season and they will be ready for Homecoming and the visit of the East Carolina Pirates.
They have to stay focused on an under-rated East Carolina team and not look ahead to a big Week 7 game against the Cincinnati Bearcats, especially as the Pirates have shown an ability to score plenty of points. The loss to the Navy Midshipmen was a blow out, but the Pirates played the Florida Gators close so that should be enough for the Cougars to remain focused on the task at hand.
However, I have mentioned they can score plenty of points and so getting almost a double digit head-start on the point spread looks too many to me. The Cougars have also been very good Offensively, but they will be put under pressure by a strong pass rush that East Carolina can generate and I also like the ball-hawking Secondary that might be able to create some turnovers.
My one concern is that the East Carolina Pirates are simply not used to making long road trips and this is a long one for them. However, I like the Pirates to make enough scoring drives to keep within the number in this one.
California Golden Bears @ Utah Utes Pick: The Utah Utes might be the best team in the Pac-12 Conference, but they are going to get a severe test of that claim when they host the California Golden Bears. I am really looking forward to this game and I couldn't avoid picking the Golden Bears as over a Touchdown underdog considering how high I am on Jared Goff and this team.
Both teams are unbeaten, but California continue to fly under the radar especially as Utah are coming in off a bye they enjoyed following a blow out of the Oregon Ducks on the road. The win over the Michigan Wolverines looks more impressive by the week, but California's win at the Washington Huskies has been franked by the Huskies winning at the USC Trojans.
So both teams have had good wins this season, but I think Goff can have some success throwing the ball against this under-rated Utah Defense. He should be helped by a running game to keep the Golden Bears in third and manageable spots, while I also think the California Defense is actually better than people expect.
I don't doubt that Utah are one of the top teams in the Conference and will give California all they can handle behind a strong running game, but blowing them out looks beyond my reasoning. This is the start of a three game run that will tell us all we need to know about Utah and the Golden Bears are 5-0 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of the 2014 season.
The Utes have been a solid enough home favourite, but I don't know that they are not being over-rated thanks to that big win in Oregon and I like getting more than a Touchdown with California.
Oklahoma Sooners v Texas Longhorns Pick: Charlie Strong is under pressure as Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns and another big loss in this Red River Rivalry to follow the beat down handed out by the TCU Horned Frogs might make his role as Head Coach under the spotlight.
They are facing the under-rated Oklahoma Sooners this week and while I expect the Sooners to have their way Offensively, I am also looking for a big game from Jerrod Heard for Texas. He hasn't thrown the ball that well, but he can help control the clock on the ground and that makes this a big number of points to cover for the Sooners.
No doubt the Sooners are the better team and a dark horse to make the National Championship Play Off, but they haven't covered in their last two games against Texas with the Longhorns as double digit underdogs. Both of those games have seen the Longhorns dominate the yardage and I expect a much more competitive outing than their Week 5 performance unless the players have given up on Charlie Strong.
Texas can put everything into this game ahead of their bye and the public might be pounding the Sooners in Vegas, but the spread has moved down from the opening line with the sharps on the side of the Longhorns. I am on that side too as I expect a vast improvement in terms of effort in this one and I'll take the points.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ WKU Hilltoppers Pick: This is a big Conference-USA game between two teams that will be expecting to challenge Marshall for the East Division title. Both have played well against Power 5 Conference teams in this season already and I think they are lot closer matched than the layers who have given the home team over a Touchdown start on the lines.
I can understand where the line has been made considering how well the WKU Hilltoppers have played in their last couple of wins, two blow out victories at that. However, Middle Tennessee are a much better team than the Rice Owls or the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks and I expect them to be able to throw the ball effectively against this Secondary.
Of course the Hilltoppers will be able to move the chains effectively too and this could be a shoot-out similar to their last four games which have all been very competitive to the final whistle. Those four games have been decided by a combined twelve points and I wouldn't be surprised if the team who holds the possession last is able to pull the victory in this one.
The road team has played well in this rivalry game and I like the points with Middle Tennessee.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Iowa Hawkeyes Pick: Both of these teams are off huge Conference wins in impressive fashion and so the emotional letdown that might have been expected can be balanced out for both teams. I'd give the edge to Iowa Hawkeyes in terms of the impressiveness of their win in Week 5, although the Illinois Fighting Illini will feel confident they can improve on the six wins they achieved last season.
One edge that Illinois might have is that Iowa have a very big game against the Northwestern Wildcats next up on deck and might look at that one as a potential Big Ten West decider. This is Homecoming for Iowa so I expect the focus to still be there, but Illinois have a bye and don't have to look ahead to a potential Division deciding game which should give them the edge.
Both Defenses are definitely the stronger units for both teams and a potential low-scoring game has to favour the double digit points that Illinois are being given. The last time they played here was a four point win for the home team, although I am a little nervous playing Illinois considering they were whipped in their one road game.
The Hawkeyes are just 8-13 against the spread as the home favourite in recent years, and they were just 2-7 against the spread as a home favourite being asked to cover double digits in terms of points before this season. Iowa have covered twice in that spot this year, but I don't envision a lot of points in this one and backing the Fighting Illini with the points looks the call.
Duke Blue Devils @ Army Black Knights Pick: The Duke Blue Devils have had their issues Offensively, but David Cutcliffe is not just a classy person but he is a top Head Coach. A lot of people might not have heard of the personal letter Cutcliffe wrote James Connor of the Pittsburgh Panthers when the Running Back was lost for the season with an injury, but it just goes to show what kind of a man the Head Coach is.
I have a lot of respect of how competitive he has made Duke on a football field even though they are more known for the basketball side of things and they are well on their way to another winning season.
Having played the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, and beaten them convincingly, the triple option run by the Army Black Knights won't surprise this Defense. It has only been two weeks since that game against Georgia Tech so preparation won't be a problem and I expect the Blue Devils to slow down Army's Offense to the extent of being able to cover this number.
Duke have also improved to 3-1-1 against the spread as the road favourite so are clearly prepared effectively while they won by 16 in their last road game at Army back in 2009.
The Black Knights played a strong game at Penn State last week, but might be short this week and I like Duke to win by at least two Touchdowns while finding an Offensive groove against this Black Knights Defense.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ LSU Tigers Pick: This was a game that was scheduled for South Carolina, but flooding in the area has meant the switch has been made to Death Valley as the LSU Tigers agreed to host the game. That's good news for the Tigers who have the inside track to the SEC Championship Game as we stand and the spread made a big jump when it was announced they were going to host the game.
Perhaps too big a jump in all honesty and I like the Gamecocks keeping this closer than the layers and the public may think even if they aren't going to have too many answers to Leonard Fournette in the backfield. The Running Back looks a prime contender for the Heisman Trophy and looks certain to become the fastest player to reach 1000 yards on the ground following this game.
I expect Fournette to perhaps get close to another 200 yard game on the ground and he has been able to take all the pressure off the passing game. South Carolina can't stop the run so Fournette will have a big game, but LSU might be looking ahead to a huge game against unbeaten Florida next week.
South Caroline have no ambitions of a National Championship this season, and they will want to give the home fans something to smile about after the hardships of recent days. The Gamecocks haven't been the strong covering road underdog that I would have liked to have backed, but the Florida game looms large for the Tigers and Les Miles might call off the dogs allowing a backdoor cover for the Gamecocks in this one.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Both teams have had some crushing losses in the last couple of weeks that have damaged the expectations they had coming into the season. Tennessee Volunteers somehow blew a big lead to lose at Florida again and then followed that up with a home loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks to effectively end their chances of playing for the SEC Championship.
There was a real belief they could win the SEC East this season and another loss to the Georgia Bulldogs would end those hopes for good and perhaps put some pressure on Butch Jones as Head Coach. However, the Bulldogs also have to deal with the fallout of an embarrassing home defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide in a game they were FAVOURED to win.
Georgia have won five straight in this series including their last two visits to Knoxville although the last two games have been won by three points each time.
The key for me here is I think the Georgia Defensive unit is the better of the two involved in the game and I think Nick Chubb will be able to have a big game running the ball. Turnovers have been an issue for both teams, but Chubb keeping Georgia moving the chains looks to be the key match up and one that can take the Bulldogs to the win and keep them in the hunt in the SEC East.
Mark Richt has led Georgia to a 5-1-1 record against the spread off a loss in the last couple of years. I also think three losses in four weeks have taken a toll on the Tennessee Volunteers and will look for Georgia to cover this week having backed Alabama against them in Week 5.
Navy Midshipmen @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Brian Kelly messed up his maths last week which eventually cost the Notre Dame Fighting Irish their unbeaten record. It would take something special for them to be invited into a four team Play Off for the National Championship now and Kelly has a job on his hands to pick up his team following the two point loss in Clemson.
I haven't hidden my admiration for the Navy Midshipmen this season so it is no surprise I am going to take the points for them to keep this competitive.
Prior to Thursday, I would have thought Notre Dame could potentially look ahead to the USC game next week, but the Trojans haven't been as good as advertised and the Fighting Irish will recognise there is an unbeaten team in front of them. Notre Dame have won four straight in the series, but they have been made to work hard the last couple of years and this might be the most experienced Navy team of recent years.
The Midshipmen Defense has played very well and I think they can prevent Notre Dame running away with it on that side of the ball. The triple option is familiar to Brian Kelly and the Notre Dame Defense, but Navy have played very well and a flat Notre Dame team from last week may struggle to cover.
Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Georgia State Panthers Pick: It is between Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Georgia Southern Eagles as to which of those teams is the best in the Sun Belt Conference and that game between those schools in two weeks looks huge.
It will only matter if both can keep winning their Conference games and I think Appalachian State demolish the Georgia State Panthers, even if the latter have surprised by winning their first Conference game.
That's one victory Georgia State would have enjoyed, but now they face the best in the Conference and I think they find it difficult to slow down this Offensive power. While Appalachian State should be able to move the chains however they like, Georgia State might be stuck in third and long situations where the Mountaineers can get the pressure up front to slow down drives.
Last season it ended up being 44-0 to Appalachian State and while this will be closer, I still like the Mountaineers to cover the double digit mark.
Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: Both teams have looked very impressive in the early goings of the season and both have big games on deck so will want to maintain that momentum. The Michigan Woverines and Northwestern Wildcats have both made unbeaten starts to Big Ten Conference play and both have relied on a strong Defensive unit to propel them.
Even the one loss that Michigan suffered at the Utah Utes doesn't look so bad when you consider how well the Utes have been doing and they are the favourites to win the Pac-12 North.
What do I think will make the difference in this game? I think the Michigan Defense is the more talented of those units and I expect them to shut down the Northwestern Offense, while I also think the Wolverines get more out of their Offense. When you combine those factors, it is easier to pick the home team and Jim Harbaugh has guided his team to 2-1 against the spread as the home favourite.
I can imagine this first half to be really tight, but Michigan to wear down Northwestern as Jim Harbaugh teams seem to do which leads to a stronger second half. De'Veon Smith should be in for Michigan at Running Back and I expect to put up some decent second half numbers and help the Wolverines go into the big game with Michigan State next week in a fine place mentally.
Washington State Cougars @ Oregon Ducks Pick: When I looked at the numbers being released this week, I immediately looked at this one between the Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars and felt it was too big a line for Oregon to cover.
This is not the same Ducks team we have been used to seeing in recent seasons and injuries haven't helped their cause, while the last time they played at home saw them blown out by the Utah Utes. That's not to say Washington State are as good as the Utes, but a Mike Leach team will score plenty of points and they have won a tough game at Rutgers while pushing the California Golden Bears all the way.
I like the Golden Bears a lot so was impressed by what Luke Falk was able to do at Quarter Back to try and keep up with Jared Goff. I expect Falk to have another big game against a Ducks Secondary that has struggled, while the Cougars Defense can pressure the Quarter Back and play the run better than you might expect.
I can see Washington State stopping some of the Oregon drives and scoring points themselves so getting three scoring drives of a head-start on the point spread looks wide of the mark. Washington State are 9-2 against the spread as the road underdog over the last two seasons and they were 'only' beaten by seven in this game last season.
Add in the fact that Oregon could easily look ahead past the lowly Washington State team to a Washington Huskies team that just knocked off USC on the road and I like the points.
East Carolina Pirates @ BYU Cougars Pick: You have to give the BYU Cougars credit for battling through injuries in the early portion of the season and they will be ready for Homecoming and the visit of the East Carolina Pirates.
They have to stay focused on an under-rated East Carolina team and not look ahead to a big Week 7 game against the Cincinnati Bearcats, especially as the Pirates have shown an ability to score plenty of points. The loss to the Navy Midshipmen was a blow out, but the Pirates played the Florida Gators close so that should be enough for the Cougars to remain focused on the task at hand.
However, I have mentioned they can score plenty of points and so getting almost a double digit head-start on the point spread looks too many to me. The Cougars have also been very good Offensively, but they will be put under pressure by a strong pass rush that East Carolina can generate and I also like the ball-hawking Secondary that might be able to create some turnovers.
My one concern is that the East Carolina Pirates are simply not used to making long road trips and this is a long one for them. However, I like the Pirates to make enough scoring drives to keep within the number in this one.
California Golden Bears @ Utah Utes Pick: The Utah Utes might be the best team in the Pac-12 Conference, but they are going to get a severe test of that claim when they host the California Golden Bears. I am really looking forward to this game and I couldn't avoid picking the Golden Bears as over a Touchdown underdog considering how high I am on Jared Goff and this team.
Both teams are unbeaten, but California continue to fly under the radar especially as Utah are coming in off a bye they enjoyed following a blow out of the Oregon Ducks on the road. The win over the Michigan Wolverines looks more impressive by the week, but California's win at the Washington Huskies has been franked by the Huskies winning at the USC Trojans.
So both teams have had good wins this season, but I think Goff can have some success throwing the ball against this under-rated Utah Defense. He should be helped by a running game to keep the Golden Bears in third and manageable spots, while I also think the California Defense is actually better than people expect.
I don't doubt that Utah are one of the top teams in the Conference and will give California all they can handle behind a strong running game, but blowing them out looks beyond my reasoning. This is the start of a three game run that will tell us all we need to know about Utah and the Golden Bears are 5-0 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of the 2014 season.
The Utes have been a solid enough home favourite, but I don't know that they are not being over-rated thanks to that big win in Oregon and I like getting more than a Touchdown with California.
MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 16.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 16.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Middle Tennessee + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Navy Midshipmen + 14 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Appalachian State Mountaineers - 15.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars + 17 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 16.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Middle Tennessee + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Navy Midshipmen + 14 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Appalachian State Mountaineers - 15.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars + 17 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 5: 6-7, - 1.50 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.54% Yield)
Week 4: 8-4-1, + 3.26 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.08% Yield)
Week 3: 6-4, + 1.57 Units (10 Units Staked, + 15.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-4-1, + 0.68 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.80% Yield)
Week 1: 7-6, + 0.48 Units (13 Units Staked, + 3.69% Yield
Season 2015: 32-25-2, + 4.49 Units (59 Units Staked, + 7.61% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Week 4: 8-4-1, + 3.26 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.08% Yield)
Week 3: 6-4, + 1.57 Units (10 Units Staked, + 15.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-4-1, + 0.68 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.80% Yield)
Week 1: 7-6, + 0.48 Units (13 Units Staked, + 3.69% Yield
Season 2015: 32-25-2, + 4.49 Units (59 Units Staked, + 7.61% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
Wednesday, 7 October 2015
Euro 2016 Qualifier Picks 2015 (October 8-10)
The European Championships have been expanded to include twenty-four teams in the Finals in France next summer and that was always going to mean some new nations would get an opportunity to play in this major international tournament.
Iceland took full advantage of that by booking their place as one of the top two teams in Group A of the Qualifiers and they will be playing in a major international tournament Finals for the first time. They have been an improving team in recent years and Iceland are one of five teams that have confirmed their place at the European Championship.
France, England, Austria and the Czech Republic are the other four teams that will be playing in the Finals, but there should be some more nations added to that list after this penultimate round of fixtures to be played on Thursday through Saturday.
Wales, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Northern Ireland, Italy and Portugal are just a win away from qualification and they could all be in the Finals by Saturday evening before the final round of games decides Play Off positions and confirms the first sixteen teams that will be in the tournament in France.
I will split the picks from the two rounds of games to be played with the first round of picks covering the games to be played on Thursday through Saturday, and the second round of picks in a separate post covering those games scheduled for Sunday through Tuesday.
I had a few thoughts from the big Premier League stories from last weekend which can be read here.
Northern Ireland v Greece Pick: Northern Ireland are so close to confirming their place at the European Championship, but they still have to find a win or earn two draws from their remaining games to ensure their place is booked.
Most will look at the first game with Greece, who are very much out of contention and who have changed managers during this Qualification campaign, as the one that Northern Ireland can win and start the celebration.
I am not sure it is as straight forward as that as Northern Ireland have won 3 of their 5 victories in the Group away from Windsor Park and had to settle for draws with both Romania and Hungary. Greece also have to be respected as only 1 of their 5 losses in the section have actually come away from home and so the layers haven't made a mistake in placing Northern Ireland at such a big price to win this game.
Goals might be in short supply as expected too, but I think there is something in backing 'no goalscorer' which at least covers any goals being scored through an own goal.
Northern Ireland have had a goalless draw against Romania in the Group and Greece have had two of those at Hungary and Romania. I don't think the home team will risk losing the game to try and win it, especially if they hear positive news from the other games in the Group that will be played at the same time, and Northern Ireland will be confident of earning the second point needed next week in Helsinki.
A lack of goals in the Greece side suggests they might not trouble the scoreboard too much and it might be worth backing 'no goalscorer' for the smallest of interests.
Republic of Ireland v Germany Pick: The European Championship places have already begun to filled and there will be a few more nations that will have their stamps booked by the end of this penultimate round of Qualifiers. The World Champions Germany will be hoping they can confirm their place after the Thursday night visit to Dublin to take on a desperate Republic of Ireland team who are still in with a chance to finish in the top two in the Group.
A strong run of results in the Group have put Germany in pole position to take one of the top two automatic Qualifier spots for France 2016 and they look in a very strong place to do that by winning in Dublin. They destroyed the Republic of Ireland in the World Cup Qualifiers having secured a 1-6 win here in that Qualifying campaign and Germany showed their quality last month by beating Poland and winning in Scotland.
Germany scored three goals in both of those wins and there is every chance they will have too much in the final third for the Republic of Ireland. Only a late goal prevented Poland winning here earlier in the Group and there is definitely a lack of goals in the Ireland team who have failed to score more than a single goal in three of their Qualifiers at home.
If the Germans reach the three goal mark here, I think they will be too strong for the Republic of Ireland and I believe they cover the Asian Handicap on their way to Qualifying for France.
Romania v Finland Pick: It has been a tough end to the Qualifying Group for Romania and you have to think that some nerves have been getting the better of them as they have tried to back their way into the European Championship Finals. It is getting a little desperate for them as failing to win their final two Group games might give Hungary the chance to overtake them into the automatic Qualifying spots assuming Northern Ireland are not beaten twice.
There are some different permutations to work out, but Romania know the most simple one is win this game and then earn a point against the Faroe Islands will be enough for them to book their plane tickets for France next summer. The defence has continued to do a solid job by keeping plenty of clean sheets in the Group and it is about finding a bit of magic in the final third to make sure the three points are earned.
Finland are not out of contention when it comes to finishing in the top three, but they look in a desperate spot and anything other than a win here will likely be curtains for them. Wins over Greece and the Faroe Islands have given Finland half a chance, but Finland's 10 points have all been earned against those two nations.
They have lost the other 4 games they have played in the Group against Romania, Hungary and Northern Ireland and I think the home team will be able to contain them for much of this game. Romania know they will have another chance to earn their win and move into the European Championship, but Finland will be more desperate as this game goes on and I think the home team can pick them off.
It will likely be tight, but Romania look like they can put one foot into France 2016 by winning this game and then hoping Hungary surprisingly fail to beat Faroe Islands or Romania earn a result against that same team next week to secure their place for next summer.
Scotland v Poland Pick: This is a big game for both Scotland and Poland who are desperate for the three points in their separate bids to reach Euro 2016 next summer. Both will have a keen eye on events in Dublin which are going to have a huge impact on both of these teams, but the initial focus will be on this game and making sure the three points are put on the board.
Scotland's 1-0 defeat to Georgia looks like it is going to be impossible to overcome unless the Republic of Ireland were to earn just two points from their remaining games and Scotland can win both of theirs. The game in Gibraltar shouldn't pose a problem, but Scotland have to win this one you'd feel if they are going to get to the Play Offs at least.
Both teams should give this a go as they look to earn the result they need and both teams have shown a vulnerability at the back that could make this an exciting game.
An early goal would really liven up the atmosphere as it will open up spaces with the team conceding needing to take more chances to get back into the game. It does make the quotes for over 2.5 goals look a bit too big, especially if the 2-2 in Warsaw is anything to go by as both Poland and Scotland look to score the goals to give themselves a chance to move into a major international tournament.
Picking a winner is very difficult and I am slightly concerned with the 1-1 scoreline which looks a big player. However, I favour the fact that both Poland and Scotland need the three points and settling for a point might not be good enough unless news filters through that Germany have a big lead against the Republic of Ireland.
Even in that scenario, Scotland will be pushing forward to win the game as they can't rely on Poland to beat Ireland next week and I like the chances of there being at least three goals shared.
Azerbaijan v Italy Pick: Italy are on the brink of making another European Championship Finals as they are one win away from ensuring they are playing in France next summer. They haven't had a straight-forward time in this Group, but are four points clear of Croatia in third place with two games left to play and they will look to confirm their place without the nervousness of a last game against Norway at home next week.
Goals have been a problem for Italy in recent games and they have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of their last 9 games which includes matches against the likes of Malta (twice) and Albania.
They have done just enough to pick up three points in the Group and Azerbaijan is going to be a difficult away game for them to face, even if they are not one of the top nations in European football. Just ask Croatia who had to settle for a goalless draw in Baku last month which might cost them a top two place in the Group and Azerbaijan have also earned a goalless draw at Norway in this Group.
Both of their home defeats in the Group have come by a single goal margin and Azerbaijan are unlikely to be blown away by Italy who don't go beyond what they need to in order to win games. Both wins over Malta came by a one goal margin and Italy will look to protect the lead if they do get in front in this one.
With the home team also making life difficult, picking Italy to win by a one goal margin looks a big price to me.
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Wales Pick: Not many teams will be underestimating Wales these days as the team have a world class performer in Gareth Bale and have improved significantly in the World Rankings. There is almost no doubt that Wales will be playing in the European Championships next summer as they need a point from games against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Andorra assuming Israel and Belgium win this week and Israel then win in Belgium.
It would be a huge surprise if Wales are not able to earn that point with Andorra next up, but they might have a difficult time getting it from a desperate Bosnia-Herzegovina who still have Play Off ambitions.
Bosnia-Herzegovina have been a very difficult team to play on their home soil and they will be taking Wales very seriously after the improvements the latter have made under Chris Coleman. While Wales have been effective away from home in this set of Qualifiers, they have needed late goals for victories in Andorra and Cyprus.
They have also shown defensive skills in earning a goalless draw in Belgium, but I have a feeling Wales might not have the same desire as Bosnia-Herzegovina in this game. It would only be human to think ahead to the Andorra game as one where Wales can book their place in France in front of their own fans, whereas the Bosnian team will know they are in the last chance saloon when it comes to a potential Play Off spot.
Edin Dzeko missing the game would be a big blow to the home team, but I still believe they can find a way to earn the narrow win and just force Wales to wait a little while longer to end their barren major international tournament appearance run. If Israel fail to beat Cyprus, it might not even take as long as Tuesday for Wales to be booking tickets to France, but either way I think Bosnia-Herzegovina can win this one.
Czech Republic v Turkey Pick: There will be some keen Dutch eyes on this fixture being played in the Czech Republic as they look for a favour from the home team in their game with Turkey. While it is going to take some collapse from Turkey to allow the Netherlands back into the picture in this Group, the Czech Republic still have some motivation despite already Qualifying for France 2016.
Winning games could improve the Seeding of teams and the Czech Republic would love to win the Group and ensure they are in as good a position as possible to have a major impact at the next European Championship. The extended format of the tournament means the Seeding could be very important for nations especially with some big nations potentially being knocked out prior to the Finals.
The Czech Republic have been very good at home through the Qualifiers with all three wins coming by the same 2-1 scoreline and I can imagine they will have their backers in this one. However, Turkey have shown they can cause problems at big grounds with a win in Romania in the World Cup Qualifiers and only a 90th minute equaliser prevented them winning in Holland during these Qualifiers.
I can see both teams having their chances in this one and goals aren't usually a problem when the Czech Republic and Turkey meet one another. The first game in the Group ended with three goals and the last two games between these nations in the Czech Republic have both seen at least three goals scored.
5 of the last 7 Qualifiers the Czech Republic have played at home have ended with at least three goals and Turkey's ambition could make this an entertaining game. The layers don't seem to fancy there being goals in this one, but I think that is a distinct possibility and the prices are very tempting here.
MY PICKS: Northern Ireland-Greece No Goalscorer @ 6.00 Bet Fred (0.5 Units)
Germany - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Romania @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Scotland-Poland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Coral (2 Units)
Italy to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Coral (1 Unit)
BosniaHerzegovina @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Czech Republic-Turkey Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
October Update: 3-4, - 3.20 Units (14 Units Staked, - 22.86% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Iceland took full advantage of that by booking their place as one of the top two teams in Group A of the Qualifiers and they will be playing in a major international tournament Finals for the first time. They have been an improving team in recent years and Iceland are one of five teams that have confirmed their place at the European Championship.
France, England, Austria and the Czech Republic are the other four teams that will be playing in the Finals, but there should be some more nations added to that list after this penultimate round of fixtures to be played on Thursday through Saturday.
Wales, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Northern Ireland, Italy and Portugal are just a win away from qualification and they could all be in the Finals by Saturday evening before the final round of games decides Play Off positions and confirms the first sixteen teams that will be in the tournament in France.
I will split the picks from the two rounds of games to be played with the first round of picks covering the games to be played on Thursday through Saturday, and the second round of picks in a separate post covering those games scheduled for Sunday through Tuesday.
I had a few thoughts from the big Premier League stories from last weekend which can be read here.
Northern Ireland v Greece Pick: Northern Ireland are so close to confirming their place at the European Championship, but they still have to find a win or earn two draws from their remaining games to ensure their place is booked.
Most will look at the first game with Greece, who are very much out of contention and who have changed managers during this Qualification campaign, as the one that Northern Ireland can win and start the celebration.
I am not sure it is as straight forward as that as Northern Ireland have won 3 of their 5 victories in the Group away from Windsor Park and had to settle for draws with both Romania and Hungary. Greece also have to be respected as only 1 of their 5 losses in the section have actually come away from home and so the layers haven't made a mistake in placing Northern Ireland at such a big price to win this game.
Goals might be in short supply as expected too, but I think there is something in backing 'no goalscorer' which at least covers any goals being scored through an own goal.
Northern Ireland have had a goalless draw against Romania in the Group and Greece have had two of those at Hungary and Romania. I don't think the home team will risk losing the game to try and win it, especially if they hear positive news from the other games in the Group that will be played at the same time, and Northern Ireland will be confident of earning the second point needed next week in Helsinki.
A lack of goals in the Greece side suggests they might not trouble the scoreboard too much and it might be worth backing 'no goalscorer' for the smallest of interests.
Republic of Ireland v Germany Pick: The European Championship places have already begun to filled and there will be a few more nations that will have their stamps booked by the end of this penultimate round of Qualifiers. The World Champions Germany will be hoping they can confirm their place after the Thursday night visit to Dublin to take on a desperate Republic of Ireland team who are still in with a chance to finish in the top two in the Group.
A strong run of results in the Group have put Germany in pole position to take one of the top two automatic Qualifier spots for France 2016 and they look in a very strong place to do that by winning in Dublin. They destroyed the Republic of Ireland in the World Cup Qualifiers having secured a 1-6 win here in that Qualifying campaign and Germany showed their quality last month by beating Poland and winning in Scotland.
Germany scored three goals in both of those wins and there is every chance they will have too much in the final third for the Republic of Ireland. Only a late goal prevented Poland winning here earlier in the Group and there is definitely a lack of goals in the Ireland team who have failed to score more than a single goal in three of their Qualifiers at home.
If the Germans reach the three goal mark here, I think they will be too strong for the Republic of Ireland and I believe they cover the Asian Handicap on their way to Qualifying for France.
Romania v Finland Pick: It has been a tough end to the Qualifying Group for Romania and you have to think that some nerves have been getting the better of them as they have tried to back their way into the European Championship Finals. It is getting a little desperate for them as failing to win their final two Group games might give Hungary the chance to overtake them into the automatic Qualifying spots assuming Northern Ireland are not beaten twice.
There are some different permutations to work out, but Romania know the most simple one is win this game and then earn a point against the Faroe Islands will be enough for them to book their plane tickets for France next summer. The defence has continued to do a solid job by keeping plenty of clean sheets in the Group and it is about finding a bit of magic in the final third to make sure the three points are earned.
Finland are not out of contention when it comes to finishing in the top three, but they look in a desperate spot and anything other than a win here will likely be curtains for them. Wins over Greece and the Faroe Islands have given Finland half a chance, but Finland's 10 points have all been earned against those two nations.
They have lost the other 4 games they have played in the Group against Romania, Hungary and Northern Ireland and I think the home team will be able to contain them for much of this game. Romania know they will have another chance to earn their win and move into the European Championship, but Finland will be more desperate as this game goes on and I think the home team can pick them off.
It will likely be tight, but Romania look like they can put one foot into France 2016 by winning this game and then hoping Hungary surprisingly fail to beat Faroe Islands or Romania earn a result against that same team next week to secure their place for next summer.
Scotland v Poland Pick: This is a big game for both Scotland and Poland who are desperate for the three points in their separate bids to reach Euro 2016 next summer. Both will have a keen eye on events in Dublin which are going to have a huge impact on both of these teams, but the initial focus will be on this game and making sure the three points are put on the board.
Scotland's 1-0 defeat to Georgia looks like it is going to be impossible to overcome unless the Republic of Ireland were to earn just two points from their remaining games and Scotland can win both of theirs. The game in Gibraltar shouldn't pose a problem, but Scotland have to win this one you'd feel if they are going to get to the Play Offs at least.
Both teams should give this a go as they look to earn the result they need and both teams have shown a vulnerability at the back that could make this an exciting game.
An early goal would really liven up the atmosphere as it will open up spaces with the team conceding needing to take more chances to get back into the game. It does make the quotes for over 2.5 goals look a bit too big, especially if the 2-2 in Warsaw is anything to go by as both Poland and Scotland look to score the goals to give themselves a chance to move into a major international tournament.
Picking a winner is very difficult and I am slightly concerned with the 1-1 scoreline which looks a big player. However, I favour the fact that both Poland and Scotland need the three points and settling for a point might not be good enough unless news filters through that Germany have a big lead against the Republic of Ireland.
Even in that scenario, Scotland will be pushing forward to win the game as they can't rely on Poland to beat Ireland next week and I like the chances of there being at least three goals shared.
Azerbaijan v Italy Pick: Italy are on the brink of making another European Championship Finals as they are one win away from ensuring they are playing in France next summer. They haven't had a straight-forward time in this Group, but are four points clear of Croatia in third place with two games left to play and they will look to confirm their place without the nervousness of a last game against Norway at home next week.
Goals have been a problem for Italy in recent games and they have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of their last 9 games which includes matches against the likes of Malta (twice) and Albania.
They have done just enough to pick up three points in the Group and Azerbaijan is going to be a difficult away game for them to face, even if they are not one of the top nations in European football. Just ask Croatia who had to settle for a goalless draw in Baku last month which might cost them a top two place in the Group and Azerbaijan have also earned a goalless draw at Norway in this Group.
Both of their home defeats in the Group have come by a single goal margin and Azerbaijan are unlikely to be blown away by Italy who don't go beyond what they need to in order to win games. Both wins over Malta came by a one goal margin and Italy will look to protect the lead if they do get in front in this one.
With the home team also making life difficult, picking Italy to win by a one goal margin looks a big price to me.
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Wales Pick: Not many teams will be underestimating Wales these days as the team have a world class performer in Gareth Bale and have improved significantly in the World Rankings. There is almost no doubt that Wales will be playing in the European Championships next summer as they need a point from games against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Andorra assuming Israel and Belgium win this week and Israel then win in Belgium.
It would be a huge surprise if Wales are not able to earn that point with Andorra next up, but they might have a difficult time getting it from a desperate Bosnia-Herzegovina who still have Play Off ambitions.
Bosnia-Herzegovina have been a very difficult team to play on their home soil and they will be taking Wales very seriously after the improvements the latter have made under Chris Coleman. While Wales have been effective away from home in this set of Qualifiers, they have needed late goals for victories in Andorra and Cyprus.
They have also shown defensive skills in earning a goalless draw in Belgium, but I have a feeling Wales might not have the same desire as Bosnia-Herzegovina in this game. It would only be human to think ahead to the Andorra game as one where Wales can book their place in France in front of their own fans, whereas the Bosnian team will know they are in the last chance saloon when it comes to a potential Play Off spot.
Edin Dzeko missing the game would be a big blow to the home team, but I still believe they can find a way to earn the narrow win and just force Wales to wait a little while longer to end their barren major international tournament appearance run. If Israel fail to beat Cyprus, it might not even take as long as Tuesday for Wales to be booking tickets to France, but either way I think Bosnia-Herzegovina can win this one.
Czech Republic v Turkey Pick: There will be some keen Dutch eyes on this fixture being played in the Czech Republic as they look for a favour from the home team in their game with Turkey. While it is going to take some collapse from Turkey to allow the Netherlands back into the picture in this Group, the Czech Republic still have some motivation despite already Qualifying for France 2016.
Winning games could improve the Seeding of teams and the Czech Republic would love to win the Group and ensure they are in as good a position as possible to have a major impact at the next European Championship. The extended format of the tournament means the Seeding could be very important for nations especially with some big nations potentially being knocked out prior to the Finals.
The Czech Republic have been very good at home through the Qualifiers with all three wins coming by the same 2-1 scoreline and I can imagine they will have their backers in this one. However, Turkey have shown they can cause problems at big grounds with a win in Romania in the World Cup Qualifiers and only a 90th minute equaliser prevented them winning in Holland during these Qualifiers.
I can see both teams having their chances in this one and goals aren't usually a problem when the Czech Republic and Turkey meet one another. The first game in the Group ended with three goals and the last two games between these nations in the Czech Republic have both seen at least three goals scored.
5 of the last 7 Qualifiers the Czech Republic have played at home have ended with at least three goals and Turkey's ambition could make this an entertaining game. The layers don't seem to fancy there being goals in this one, but I think that is a distinct possibility and the prices are very tempting here.
MY PICKS: Northern Ireland-Greece No Goalscorer @ 6.00 Bet Fred (0.5 Units)
Germany - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Romania @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Scotland-Poland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Coral (2 Units)
Italy to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Coral (1 Unit)
BosniaHerzegovina @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Czech Republic-Turkey Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
October Update: 3-4, - 3.20 Units (14 Units Staked, - 22.86% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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