Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (November 6-8)

Can you believe it has really been a month since the last international fixtures?

It means another break in play domestically, but players will not benefit ahead of two more extremely busy months especially for those playing in England. The season may be played in a narrower timeframe than usual, but that only means the festive period is even more busy for the teams who will try and remain on track with games set to be played every few days through to mid-January.

After the November internationals the teams involved with European Football will continue to play every week as the Group Stage is concluded, although some of those are already in a very strong position to make it out of their sections. It will be important for managers to rest players and also allow those of us who play the Fantasy Football games a chance to at least make the right selections for our teams.

More on that later with an extremely early deadline on GameWeek 8 of the Official Fantasy game.

Brighton v Burnley Pick: This is an important Premier League fixture for both Brighton and Burnley on Friday afternoon, although I am not anticipating the PPV sales to go through the roof for the game.

That is perhaps slightly disrespectful to two clubs who have become solid Premier League mainstays and Brighton in particular do have a pleasing style of football for the neutral to enjoy.

It was on full display as they took the game to Tottenham Hotspur last week, but Brighton once again fell narrowly to one of the 'Big Six' clubs and it leaves Graham Potter looking for answers. While his team have played really well at times, they have made some silly mistakes which have proven to be costly as Brighton have struggled to score enough goals to make up for it.

The lack of consistency in the final third does make it hard to trust Brighton to win any game at odds on let alone a Premier League fixture.

Brighton will also be facing a Burnley team who earned a goalless draw in their last away game and who restricted Tottenham Hotspur to very little in the final third in a narrow home loss to them. Sean Dyche won't be overly concerned about the current League position, but he will be looking for his team to show a little more going forward having not scored in any of their last 3 League games.

Goals have tended to be produced when these teams have met and you can't ignore the fact that all of Burnley's League goals have been scored away from home. They had chances at West Brom in the goalless draw, but Brighton have tended to be a little more effective going forward at the Amex Stadium too.

It is a tight game to call, but one in which I do believe the defences can be on top for the majority of the ninety minutes. 2 of the 3 games between these clubs at this Stadium since Brighton returned to the top flight have ended with fewer than three goals scored and I think that may be the case here.

A single strike may be enough to secure the points for either team, but the 1-1 can't be ruled out either and so I won't be looking for a really high-scoring fixture to be played out here.

Southampton v Newcastle United Pick: On paper this looks like a fixture that should be a pretty decent watch on Friday Night Football, but in the last couple of years goals have tended to dry up when Southampton have hosted Newcastle United.

Both teams look to be heading into this meeting in confidence though with some big results earned over the last month. That has seen both Southampton and Newcastle United moving up the League standings and I think the two managers will believe this is a winnable fixture for them.

The loss of Danny Ings is a blow for Southampton who have relied on his goal output over the last twelve months. However, Ralph Hasenhuttl will be pleased that Ings has 'only' score 3 of the last 11 goals managed by his team.

You can't downplay his overall influence on the team and replicating that won't be easy for Shane Long who is the most likely replacement. Even then Southampton will feel they can create chances against this Newcastle United team who are fortunate to still be unbeaten away from home in the League.

In their last 2 Premier League away games Newcastle United have hit their hosts with a late sucker punch to steal the points and so there is going to be some concern for Southampton if this is fixture is tight with time running down. The Saints have played some very good football, but they have not created a lot of strong chances and will need clinical finishing again to give themselves the opportunity of securing the full points.

At the same time Southampton have improved defensively and they are not offering out a lot of encouragement for teams since the 2-5 loss to Tottenham Hotspur. Steve Bruce's team have not really been racking up the shots away from home and I think we should see another tight fixture between these two teams.

For me it would not be a huge surprise if one of these teams fails to hit the back of the net. Newcastle United were poor defensively against Tottenham Hotspur, but they have shown spirit at the back to stick around in matches, especially away from home. That should be the case again with no Danny Ings to trouble them, but Newcastle United are also unlikely to create a whole host of chances here.

An early goal would change the dynamics of the fixture considerably, but I can see this being a well fought game with the defences largely being on top. The last two games between these clubs at St Mary's have had a combined single strike trouble the scoreboard and I think this will be a relatively low-scoring fixture too.

Everton v Manchester United Pick: The recent results of both Everton and Manchester United have been disappointing and that means there is pressure on both squads in what looks to be a huge Premier League game on Saturday.

Both teams have lost their last 2 games heading into the fixture, although there is a lot more pressure on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer rather than Carlo Ancelotti.

While the veteran Italian manager is overachieving at the moment, his counterpart is under tremendous pressure as once again the cloud of a sacking looms over him.

Everton can at least point to the last two defeats coming through injuries and suspensions which have reduced the options Carlo Ancelotti has. However some of those players are returning this week and it makes Everton a real threat to Manchester United with the amount of chances they have been creating at Goodison Park.

The side have scored at least twice in all 5 home games played in all competitions, but Everton have also conceded twice in all of their League games played. Manchester United may have lost in Turkey on Wednesday, but they have won 6 away Premier League games in a row and have managed to score at least twice in each.

This is a team that can create chances and I do think Manchester United will benefit from the fact that Everton will be looking to get on the front foot. That should leave spaces for the visitors to exploit, but much is going to depend on how much the players are still keen on playing for their beleaguered manager.

Both teams hit the back of the net in both League games against each other last season and I do think that is a distinct possibility again. Manchester United have tended to find a big result when it feels Solskjaer needs one the most, but this is a tough place to play and I can see the fixture ending 2-1 either way.

Everton and Manchester United have been scoring plenty of goals in home/away games respectively and I think that will be the outcome of this one with the defensive mistakes the teams have been making.

Crystal Palace v Leeds United Pick: The second Premier League game to be played on Saturday comes from South London and both Crystal Palace and Leeds United are looking to bounce back from disappointing defeats last weekend.

Being back at home may be an advantage for many clubs, but that has not always been the case for Crystal Palace. In recent seasons under Roy Hodgson this team have been much happier playing away from Selhurst Park where they have the opportunity to counter attack as home teams are under pressure to get forward.

They should feel they can play this game in a similar manner because Leeds United are a team who will want to play attacking football and will commit men forward. It has worked for Leeds United in the Premier League with back to back wins at Sheffield United and Aston Villa and they have managed to somehow keep clean sheets in both.

That is despite the chances being created against them, but in this fixture you do have to wonder if Crystal Palace are capable of exposing any defensive issues Leeds United are continuing to have. In their last two home games Crystal Palace have struggled to create good opportunities, but their own defensive injuries have meant it has been hard to earn too many points.

Leeds United are capable of hurting Crystal Palace here and they have been creating opportunities for themselves. You do have to worry about their defensive responsibilities, but I can see Leeds United bouncing back with a victory after their 1-4 hammering to Leicester City.

It will be close and competitive as any Roy Hodgson team will make it, but Leeds United may edge to the victory in this one.

Chelsea v Sheffield United Pick: The struggles in the final third did not really cost Sheffield United last season, but this time around they have not been nearly as effective defensively and that has exposed the side.

Chris Wilder will be looking to get things turned around quickly as a long run of poor form in the Premier League continues to see Sheffield United slide down the League standings. Including last season, Sheffield United have lost 9 of their last 10 Premier League games and they have also been beaten in their last 5 on their travels in the Division.

Now they have to face a Chelsea team in fine form and who have looked to have discovered the balance in attack and defence in recent games. After back to back goalless draws, Chelsea have scored 10 goals in their last 3 games which have resulted in three big wins.

Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic may both miss out, but it didn't stop Chelsea hammering Rennes in the Champions League. They have looked much more secure at the back with Edouard Mendy giving the entire back four confidence and this is a team that looks to be rounding into strong form with winnable games to come.

Frank Lampard will be determined to see his team go into the November international break with another three points, but Chelsea have to show more consistency at home. They do look capable of producing that and on current form this looks like a game that should be a relatively comfortable home win.

Last season Chelsea looked on the way to that against Sheffield United when leading 2-0 at half time before an eventual 2-2 draw. This time around I do think Chelsea look more secure to look after a lead and perhaps even keep The Blades under more pressure and the home team should be able to win this fixture and keep the momentum behind them through the November internationals.

West Ham United v Fulham Pick: Neither West Ham United nor Fulham have produced as many points as some would think when seven games have been played, but the former have been in better shape for the most part.

David Moyes will not have ignored how difficult the early fixture list was going to be for his team, but West Ham United have been in fine form. They have been competitive against some of the best teams in the Premier League and it took a late goal last weekend for Liverpool to get the better of them.

They have already dismissed Wolves 4-0 here and drawn with Manchester City and that is a level that will be difficult for Fulham to deal with. However, you can't ignore the absence of Michail Antonio who has been a talisman for West Ham United since the resumption of play in June and that does lessen some of the threat of the home team.

Fulham have to take advantage and they have been a little more effective in their last couple of games. They were recently well beaten by Crystal Palace, but Fulham could have gotten more than a point from their visit to Sheffield United and they were deserved winners over West Brom last Monday which will have given the squad a shot in the arm.

There are likely going to be chances created against this West Ham United defence, but I do think David Moyes is getting plenty out of his squad at the moment. Despite the slightly improved results, Fulham are still not defending as well as they would like and I do think West Ham United have pace and quality in the final third which will give them the edge in this derby game.

The Hammers have beaten Fulham 3 times in a row at home and they have scored plenty of goals in those games. You do have to think their attacking play is dented without Michail Antonio, but I still think West Ham United will edge to the points.

West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Some of the results have been better than the performances from Tottenham Hotspur and Jose Mourinho indicated that was his feeling after the 1-3 win over Ludogorets on Thursday in the Europa League. I think that would be a harsh assessment of the team in a game they largely dominated, but Tottenham Hotspur have not been winning fixtures as easily as they would like in the Premier League.

Last weekend Spurs beat Brighton and Mourinho stated that teams in the Premier League are much more competitive these days than they have been for a couple of years. Instead of a big divide between the best and the lesser teams, Jose Mourinho thinks things are much closer and that means this is going to be anything but an easy game for Tottenham Hotspur.

No away game is ever easy anyway, but despite the manager's thoughts I do think Tottenham Hotspur should be too good for West Brom.

All doesn't seem to be going smoothly at The Hawthorns where Slaven Bilic has been critical of some of the transfer policy which seems to be leaving his squad short of the quality the manager wants. The 2-0 defeat at Fulham on Monday afternoon would not have given the squad a lot of confidence and West Brom have struggled for League wins going back to the end of their time in the Championship.

The Baggies can get forward and look to cause problems, but they have struggled for goals- their 3 home goals have all come in the game with Chelsea and West Brom needed some huge defensive mistakes to get into a 3-0 lead before settling for a 3-3 draw.

Those goals being conceded has to be a concern against a free-scoring Tottenham Hotspur team and I do think the visitors can snap a poor run in this part of the Midlands. Some of the key players managed to get some rest on Thursday and Tottenham Hotspur are playing with some momentum, especially away from home.

I am not fully convinced about Tottenham Hotspur and they are about to enter a really testing period of the season. However that comes in two weeks time and this is not really a fixture that should be of huge trouble to them on current form of both clubs.

You can never take a fixture for granted, but I do feel Tottenham Hotspur will have the goals in the squad to win this game and by a comfortable margin when all is said and done.

Leicester City v Wolves Pick: The first of the Super Sunday live offerings in the United Kingdom features two clubs who will be hoping they can take advantage of any inconsistencies the traditional 'Big Six' display over the course of the campaign.

Both Leicester City and Wolves have been operating towards the top of the Premier League over the last eighteen months, but the target will now be to push on towards the Champions League spots.

Over the last month the two clubs have been producing plenty of wins without perhaps playing at their best. Leicester City have looked like they are turning a corner with their wins over Leeds United and Sporting Braga coming behind big performances, but Wolves are unlikely to be as porous defensively as those two clubs.

This is a well organised team that will not be giving Jamie Vardy the space behind the defence he loves to exploit the most and I do think they will challenge Leicester City.

A bigger concern may be whether Wolves have enough going forward to get after a makeshift back four Leicester City have been forced to play. The players being relied on have done well, but Wolves have pace and quality in the final third which makes them dangerous even if they have been struggling for consistency when it comes to chance creation in the final third.

They were much better against Crystal Palace, but Wolves have not been firing on all cylinders away from home. In the draw with Newcastle Unite and the win over Leeds United, Wolves did not create a lot going forward despite the possession and this fixture has the makings of a tight one that could be decided by a single goal.

Last season both games between Leicester City and Wolves finished goalless. That is actually the third time in four that the scoreline has ended that way between the clubs, while in 4 of the last 5 one or both teams have failed to find the back of the net.

My feeling is that there won't be much between these two on Sunday and the chance of one of the teams picking up a clean sheet is relatively high. An early goal changes everything, but I would not be surprised to see a close, competitive fixture throughout between two in form teams who are hoping to keep tabs on the leading clubs in the Premier League.

Manchester City v Liverpool Pick: The biggest game of the Premier League weekend comes from the Etihad Stadium as the two favourites to win the title meet for the first time in the 2020/21 season.

Manchester City and Liverpool have not really put their foot down in the League in the same manner as we have become used to, but both are in relatively decent positions after seven games. The more obvious positive is for Liverpool who lead the Division, but Manchester City would only be 2 points behind them if they win their game in hand and Pep Guardiola might be happy enough with that.

Injuries have not really helped the Manchester City cause early in the season, but they have looked pretty good defensively in recent games. It has taken away from some of the strong attacking displays we have become used to, but I also think that is down to the fact that their two strikers have both been injured and playing with a 'false nine' has been troublesome at times.

Gabriel Jesus is in line to start for the home team and Sergio Aguero is close to returning which is a huge boost for Manchester City. It will certainly mean they are in a stronger place to challenge this makeshift Liverpool centre back pairing as Joel Matip and Joe Gomez look to play alongside one another.

These two have not really played together too many times before and Manchester City are playing well enough to expose them.

However, I also think Liverpool will feel in confident mood after winning 5 games in a row in all competitions. Their 0-5 win in Atalanta was very impressive, although the home team missed some key chances to get back into the game.

From an attacking point of view Liverpool will look to get after Manchester City and their new-look centre half pairing. With Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane in strong form Liverpool will believe they are going to have their opportunities, but Diogo Jota is a doubt and that will be a blow for the visitors considering his start to his career at Anfield.

Goals should be on display when these teams meet on Sunday, but my lean is that Manchester City may get the better of the fixture. They have beaten Liverpool 3 times in a row at the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League and I think the home team are showing a bit more defensively than their visitors which may give them the edge here too.

It won't be easy but Manchester City did hammer Liverpool here in June and I think they will have just enough to earn the points again.

Arsenal v Aston Villa Pick: The final game in the Premier League weekend looks like it could be a decent fixture when Arsenal host Aston Villa.

Over the last week it is Arsenal who have picked up some momentum with 3 wins in a row in all competitions, while Aston Villa have lost back to back home games in the League. Losing is one thing, but Aston Villa's early defensive performances have been replaced by conceding seven times in a couple of fixtures at Villa Park.

To be fair to Aston Villa, Southampton punished them every chance they got last week and I do think they will be more competitive in this fixture. The fightback from 0-4 down to eventually lose 3-4 shows there is a determination in the squad that can't be underestimated and I do think Aston Villa have enough quality in the final third to create chances against this Arsenal team.

Mikel Arteta has made Arsenal more organised, although that has come at the cost of reducing some of the attacking threat that fans will have become accustomed to seeing from The Gunners over the last two decades. The new system and approach means Arsenal are not producing as many shots and creating as many chances as the manager would hope and I do think that will always give teams a chance against them.

Aston Villa have won at Leicester City already this season and showed resiliency in that victory at the King Power Stadium. They have also largely been playing pretty well with only the defeat to Leeds United being a fixture where Dean Smith would have been severely disappointed with the performance.

Last season Aston Villa could easily have won here and I do think they are not going to make things easy for Arsenal. The win at Old Trafford may have just covered one or two issues Arsenal have been having and I think Aston Villa with the start could at least keep this competitive on Sunday evening with every chance of earning a positive result.

MY PICKS: Brighton-Burnley Under 2.5 Goals

Southampton-Newcastle United Under 2.5 Goals

Everton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals

Leeds United 0 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap

West Ham United

Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap

Leicester City-Wolves Both Teams to Score NO

Manchester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Aston Villa + 1 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 8

There is no doubt that this is a very difficult season for Fantasy players as well as the teams in real life with the short turnaround between fixtures and that also means an increase in injuries.

When you add in the continued Covid-19 crisis that is affecting us all and there are going to be moments when your Fantasy teams see injuries pile up. Out of principle I have to be pretty desperate to want to take a hit on my team and that would be the case in GW8 despite the likelihood of potentially coming up short from the full eleven starting this round of games.

Christian Pulisic and Tyrick Mitchell have been ruled out, although only the former would have been starting in my time. I am happy enough to go with Jack Grealish in his stead, while the illness Sergio Reguilon is dealing with is expected to keep the Spurs defender out of action.

That is a touch more troublesome and means Ollie Watkins comes in- this is less ideal considering Aston Villa are playing at Arsenal and anything above four points from Grealish and Watkins would have to be seen as a bonus.

It would be an easy decision to replace Christian Pulisic, but I do think I am happy enough with the squad as it is and I would love to roll over a transfer to use in GW9 which comes at the end of the international break. With the virus continuing to cause havoc, I think it is ideal to have that extra transfer in the pocket in case I need to make changes to replace those who have picked up Covid-19 while being away.

The extra time to prepare the transfers is also important for me and I do have a few players who I think are on the brink of being needed to be moved out. Depending on the severity of the injury sustained by Pulisic my first hit of the season could be needed next time around, but I am going to go with what I have for now.

With Manchester City hosting Liverpool, the Captain choice is very easy again this week- I am going to go with Harry Kane who faces a West Brom team that is struggling for clean sheets and conceded three times in 2 of their 3 home Premier League games.

I may have gone with Christian Pulisic in a home game against another struggling opponent in Sheffield United if he had not picked up his knock last week, but in the current situation things are straight-forward for me here.

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (November 6-8)

The international break is fast approaching in November, but there is time for one more round of Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches. Match Day 4 of both competitions is a time when some teams will begin to earn their places in the Knock Out Rounds while others are on the way out of European competition.

This is already a pressurised situation for teams who may need all the points they can earn to challenge for Knock Out spots and some of the English representatives have been left in difficult spots after the results of Match Day 3.

Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal are in comfortable positions, but Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some work to do if they are going to progress from the Group Stage.

Out of those three teams Tottenham Hotspur look in the most precarious position, but things can quickly change with two Champions League rounds to be played in November and they can get back on track this week.


Crevena Zvezda v Liverpool Pick: We have reached the stage of the Champions League Group Stage where teams can be in a position to move through to the Last 16 of the competition while others begin to realise their European adventure is almost at a close.

That is not entirely the case for this Group which sees two points separate Liverpool at the top of the section and Paris Saint-Germain in 3rd place with Napoli in between. All three teams will feel they are good enough to have an impact in the Champions League and that makes their remaining games against Crvena Zvezda as 'must win' fixtures.

Napoli have already dropped points here, but Liverpool will head to the Serbian capital as a big favourite to beat Crvena Zvezda who have found the step up to the Champions League a gap too far to bridge. Holding Napoli will give Crvena Zvezda some confidence, but the heavy losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool two weeks ago will have dented some of that and the home team will need all the passion coming from the stands to inspire them to a famous result.

In reality Crvena Zvezda were perhaps a little fortunate to even earn the goalless draw with Napoli and it will be very difficult to contain this Liverpool team. Goals have not exactly been flowing for Liverpool away from home, but they have been on a tough run and this Crvena Zvezda team are not up to the level of Chelsea, Napoli or Arsenal.

Last season Arsenal did earn a tough win here and playing in Belgrade is never easy, but Liverpool should be starting a strong team knowing the Champions League Group is still very much in the balance. With the defensive shape Liverpool have shown this season I think they can win this game and contain the Crvena Zvezda attack which will mainly be a threat from set pieces.

I expect Crvena Zvezda to cause some problems with the support they are going to have behind them, but that may not be enough to upset Liverpool. A tough away win looks to be on the cards which makes the Asian Handicap unappealing, but backing Liverpool to win to nil is a decent looking price.

Crvena Zvezda have failed to score in their last couple of home European games and in 4 of their last 8 here. Liverpool can become the latest to keep a clean sheet here as they put up three points to continue to lead this Group.


Inter Milan v Barcelona Pick: The Group has developed in such a way that Barcelona can win on Tuesday and that would not only be enough to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League but allow them to do that as Group Winners.

The theory is that it means an 'easier' Second Round tie in the Champions League and that has to be the focus for Barcelona so they can put full focus on the Spanish Primera Division in the weeks ahead.

Lionel Messi's absence has not slowed down Barcelona's attacking threat as shown in their 2-0 win over Inter Milan two weeks ago and in their 2-3 win at Rayo Vallecano in the League this past weekend. The goals conceded are more of a concern for Barcelona fans and this is a team who have looked more vulnerable away from home.

Even in the home win over Inter there were enough chances for the Italian team to be confident of their chances of perhaps producing an upset.

Inter Milan create plenty of chances at home and they don't have a lot to lose by giving this game a real go considering both Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven have a point each in the Group. A win for Inter Milan would put them right on the edge of making it through to the Last 16 and so there has to be a real effort at trying to pick up those points here.

Barcelona have not been the best traveller in recent Champions League years and they have not enjoyed recent visits to Italy. In the last couple of seasons Barcelona have lost Knock Out ties by the same 3-0 scoreline at Juventus and Roma.

This time Barcelona look like they have enough of an attacking threat to challenge Inter Milan and could also have Lionel Messi returning from injury. Inter Milan will feel they can also test a vulnerable Barcelona defence and I think these teams are going to combine for a decent game of football that ends with at least three goals shared out.


Napoli v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: A Group containing Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli looked like one that could see all three teams push each other all the way to Match Day 6 before determining those who will make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

A couple of surprising results involving Napoli have just changed the whole feel of the Group- this is a team who could not win at Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1, but Napoli have since beaten Liverpool at home and then draw in the French Capital against PSG.

The last result means a home win for Napoli on Tuesday will put them in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 16. With a home game to come against the Serbian Champions later this month, Napoli will know two home wins are going to be good enough to see them through to the Last 16.

Napoli are a point clear of Paris Saint-Germain having been unbeaten in the Group and a 4 point lead with two games to come would be tough to blow. However they have to feel that Paris Saint-Germain are going to be much better than they were two weeks ago and this becomes a dangerous game that is hard to pick a winner from.

Home advantage is enough of an edge to make Napoli appealing as the underdog, but the Italian side are one that will give up chances to opponents who are willing to take the game to them. The French Champions will do that, but Napoli showed there are some vulnerabilities in the Paris Saint-Germain defence too and I can see another game which features goals developing.

The layers feel the same and they do think there will be at least three goals shared out at odds on. I expect that total to be hit, but I am going to back at least four goals to be shared out as there was when these teams met in Paris two weeks ago.

Napoli are a team who will look to attack with some talented players in the final third while Paris Saint-Germain games continue to produce fireworks and I will look for that to occur on Tuesday.


Porto v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: There has been a much improved performance coming from Lokomotiv Moscow which has to be respected, but they look like they have dug too big a hole to climb out of in the Champions League.

The Russian Premier League has to be the focus for Lokomotiv Moscow and despite beginning to put the wins together they have still been struggling in the Champions League. Losses to Galatasaray, Schalke and Porto have been difficult to swallow and the fact that two of those have come at home means Lokomotiv Moscow are unlikely to progress out of this Group.

Things do look much better for Porto who have won back to back Champions League games to top the Group. Another win on Tuesday will put Porto on the brink of making it through to the Last 16 and they are a team who have been strong enough at home in Europe to believe they can win this fixture.

Lokomotiv Moscow have lost back to back away games in Europe by the same 3-0 scoreline at Atletico Madrid and Galatasaray. They are in the difficult position of having to attack against a Porto team who will thrive on the counter attack and I do think it is going to be very difficult for the Russian Champions to earn a result here.

They have conceded too many goals in the Champions League and Porto can match the margin of victory secured in the Russian capital. Porto did have a narrow win over Galatasaray at home in the Group, but they should find more spaces to exploit against a Lokomotiv Moscow who have to come forward and I will back the Portuguese leaders to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap in the process.


Tottenham Hotspur v PSV Eindhoven Pick: If Champions League games were played for 85 minutes rather than 90 minutes Tottenham Hotspur would have had two wins under their belt in this Group and be in a strong position to make it through to the Last 16. However that is not the case and Tottenham Hotspur blew a 0-1 lead at Inter Milan to concede twice, while a 1-2 lead at PSV Eindhoven ended in a 2-2 draw.

So instead of being in a strong position, Tottenham Hotspur find themselves 5 points behind Inter Milan in 2nd place in this Group and now have two must win home Champions League games to be played this month. Win both and Tottenham Hotspur will have a chance to make it through to the Last 16 when visiting an already Qualified Barcelona on Match Day 6, but anything less and this will be seen as a really disappointing campaign in the Champions League.

You have to wonder about the state of the playing surface at Wembley Stadium with just eight days since it was used on back to back days. That is going to make it difficult for two teams who do like to pass the ball and play attacking football, but Tottenham Hotspur have run out of excuses having blown games already in the Champions League.

They have to put PSV Eindhoven under pressure from the off and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are capable of doing that. The Premier League club looked much better than PSV Eindhoven for long periods of the game on Match Day 3 and it was only two errors that allowed the Dutch Champions to secure a point.

PSV Eindhoven have to be respected for the way they continue to dominate domestically, but the Dutch League has slipped off the standards it once had. In the Champions League PSV Eindhoven have looked second best in all 3 Group games played and this is a team who have lost 4 of their last 5 away European ties.

I expect Tottenham Hotspur to add to that even through the injury crisis they are suffering in centre midfield. I am a little concerned with the defensive performances of late which has seen Tottenham Hotspur offer chances to opponents, while they have lost 3 of their last 4 at Wembley Stadium.

However those defeats have come against some of the best teams in Europe and I will back Tottenham Hotspur to reinvigorate their Champions League challenge by winning this game by a couple of goals on the day.


CSKA Moscow v Roma Pick: When you factor in Roma's run of 1 win from their last 17 away games in the Champions League it is hard to imagine that they would be as short a price as they are to win in Moscow on Match Day 4.

Roma did crush CSKA Moscow at home a couple of weeks ago but they have shown they are not quite so good on their travels and come into this one on a run of 5 consecutive losses on their travels in the Champions League.

The majority of those defeats have come against some of the best teams in European Football although Roma were beaten in Shakhtar Donetsk last season too. Those results are a concern but even then I do think Roma can win this game with the amount of chances they are likely going to create against this CSKA Moscow team.

On Match Day CSKA Moscow did beat Real Madrid 1-0 here, but the European Champions are out of whack at the moment and even then they were unfortunate to not only avoid a defeat but to win in the Russian capital. Since that win CSKA Moscow have lost back to back home games in the Russian Premier League while they also lost 2 of their 3 home Group games in the Champions League twelve months ago.

Roma have been a little inconsistent this season with some young, talented players being brought in to back up the team that reached the Semi Final of the Champions League last season. They have not been dominant away from home, but Roma do create enough chances to think they can win here and move into a strong position to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

The first goal will be crucial, but I do think Roma can be backed despite their awful away record in the Champions League.


Valencia v Young Boys Pick: As a Manchester United fan seeing another draw between Valencia and Young Boys would be an ideal result as it could mean a place in the Last 16 could be secured before Match Day 6 is played.

Even a Young Boys win in Spain would not be a bad result for United who would then be a home win over the Swiss side from making it through.

Both Valencia and Young Boys are unconcerned by what Manchester United fans want though and these teams have to be well aware of the importance of winning this fixture to have a chance to progress from this Group. The losing team would almost certainly be missing out on a place in the Last 16 of the Champions League and that pressure can make it difficult for players to perform.

Valencia have really struggled to turn draws into wins all season which does make it hard to trust them to win any game of football. The 0-1 home loss to Girona was a really poor result for Valencia, although they created enough chances to think they are going to turn thing around and start putting the wins on the board.

They will have to respect a Young Boys team who should really have beaten Valencia in Switzerland a couple of weeks ago. However Young Boys have not been as good away from home in European Football in recent years and that may give Valencia enough of an edge to earn what will be a very important win for them on Wednesday.

The draws are a real concern for Valencia backers, but they have been creating chances and I think they can get the better of Young Boys this time. It may not be the result I would want to see but Valencia should also have chances on the counter attack if they are leading as Young Boys try and get back into the Group too.

I will look to back Valencia to win this game and will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Juventus v Manchester United Pick: It was an eye-opening experience for Manchester United fans and players alike as they were convincingly beaten by Juventus at Old Trafford two weeks ago to show how far behind the European elite Manchester United have slipped.

They get a second chance to prove the gap is not as big as it looked at Old Trafford but the test is much bigger when heading to Turin where Juventus have generally been so strong.

Prior to the win over Young Boys Juventus had failed to win any of 3 home Champions League games but those came against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur with the last of those seeing Juventus blow a 2-0 lead.

With recent Manchester United starts to fixtures it is a real concern that they could find themselves in a hole they can't dig out of in this fixture. Manchester United have shown enough to fight back and draw with Chelsea, but Juventus may be a step up from The Blues and this is a team who have made scoring look very, very easy for most of the season.

That is a real concern for Manchester United whose defensive shape has not been at its best and the chances teams are creating against them is a real problem ahead of this fixture and the Manchester derby on Sunday. It makes it very difficult to see a different outcome to this fixture on Match Day 4 as what we saw at Old Trafford, although Juventus are even more clinical in front of their own fans and the suggestion is that this margin of victory is also greater than two weeks ago.

Backing Juventus to win a game featuring two or more goals may be one for non-Manchester United fans out there.


Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: There are some major leaks coming out about Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, but I don't think there will be a serious impact on the playing side of things as they look to take complete control of their Champions League Group.

Back to back away wins have moved Manchester City to the top of the section, but it is a little strange to think they have lost their last 3 home Champions League games. I would imagine they stop that run on Wednesday when they face Shakhtar Donetsk for the second time in the Group having won 0-3 in the Ukraine two weeks ago.

Last season Manchester City were comfortable 2-0 winners over Shakhtar Donetsk and the feeling is they are going to be fairly comfortable again.

There will likely be some changes to the starting eleven with the Manchester derby in mind, but Pep Guardiola will want his team to keep the momentum going having won 4 in a row at the Etihad Stadium since their 1-2 loss to Lyon in the Champions League.

The attacking threat posed by Manchester City won't be lessened even with the changes they are likely to make. While Shakhtar Donetsk are a talented team who can be a threat going forward themselves, I think they play with a freedom that can be exposed by Manchester City as they were in the home game a couple of weeks ago.

As with any Manchester City home game against supposedly lesser teams they are going to be asked to cover a big handicap for a decent payout. Last season Shakhtar Donetsk lost 2-0 here and were 3-0 losers in Napoli and I do think Manchester City are playing with enough confidence to secure a big win here with the chances they are likely to create after once again dominating the ball against Shakhtar Donetsk.


Dynamo Kiev v Rennes Pick: There was an element of fortune for Dynamo Kiev in winning 1-2 in Rennes on Match Day 3 and they can't take anything for granted in this Europa League Group which looks to be one of the more competitive ones in the tournament.

Another victory would put Dynamo Kiev in a very strong position in the Group, but they have been inconsistent both at home and in Europe which makes it difficult to trust them.

Dynamo Kiev have only won 1 of their last 5 home games in European competition and they have failed to win their last 2 this season against Ajax and Astana. You could make a serious argument that both are superior to a Rennes team who have been struggling at the wrong end of the French top flight, but there may also be a slight lack of belief in the home dressing room which is contributing to some inconsistent results.

On the other hand Rennes may be unbeaten in their last 3 away games since their loss in Astana which has left them in 3rd place in the Group, but they have now lost 4 straight away Europa League ties.

They can create chances which makes them dangerous, but I think Dynamo Kiev will be a little too good for them with home advantage the key. Both teams can score goals, but I like Dynamo Kiev and will back them on the Asian Handicap to get the better of their visitors.


BATE Borisov v Chelsea Pick: It can be difficult to get a read on what a manager will do in the Europa League, especially those that manage in the Premier League but I think this game is pretty easy to read.

The layers seem to be on the same page as me with the Chelsea price looking fairly attractive as most of the starting players will be left at home.

A long trip to Belarus before a home game with Everton is not ideal for Maurizio Sarri, but he has rotated his squad throughout the Europa League Group Stage and it hasn't affected Chelsea at all. They have won all 3 Group games played and Chelsea have been far too good for the other teams in this section and I think they can win in Belarus when they visit on Match Day 4.

Last year BATE Borisov were being hammered by Arsenal in both games played against them in this competition. The 3-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge looks close, but Chelsea dominated and they should have enough about them in the final third to get the better of their hosts again.

BATE Borisov have lost back to back home games in European competition and conceded at least three goals in both against PSV Eindhoven and PAOK. They will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to contain Chelsea and I think the visitors will return with a comfortable victory and cover the Asian Handicap.


Lazio v Marseille Pick: You have to question the belief of the Marseille players as they head into Match Day 4 of the Europa League having lost 3 in a row in all competitions and also finding themselves on the brink of exiting the Europa League in which they had reached the Final a few months ago.

There is pressure on Marseille to find a way to win in the Italian capital, but they have a poor away record in the Europa League in recent years and it is hard to see how they turn that around.

As poor as Marseille have been on their travels Lazio have been strong at home and they know another win could see them put the Europa League to the back burner until February. They have been very good at home with 5 wins from their last 6 at the Stadio Olimpico and Lazio have created plenty of chances and scored plenty of goals in those games.

Marseille are better than what they showed in the 1-3 home defeat to Lazio, but following that up with back to back losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Montpellier while conceding at least two goals in each game is hard to ignore. They have to attack here too with a point likely not good enough as one more for Lazio from their remaining two games would see them at least finish above Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt are clear.

With a team likely having to come forward, Lazio can punish Marseille on the counter attack and I will back the home team to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Rapid Vienna v Villarreal Pick: With just 3 points separating the four teams in this Group, a win on Match Day 4 for either Rapid Vienna or Villarreal could be a huge boost in their bid to earn their place in the Last 32 of this competition.

The 5-0 loss in Spain has put Rapid Vienna in a difficult position, but they have two games left to play at home in the Group and winning both should be good enough to move out of the section.

It won't be easy against a Villarreal team who have drawn half of their last 8 games in all competitions, but Rapid Vienna will have chances. Villarreal have not won any of their last 4 away games and they have been conceding plenty of goals in that time which is something that Rapid Vienna will look to exploit.

I expect the home team to create chances, but Villarreal should also be able to create some opportunities. They have scored in their last 6 away games and Villarreal have been able to create plenty of chances of their own while the dominant win over Rapid Vienna will give the players confidence.

These teams met in the Europa League Group Stage three seasons ago and it was Rapid Vienna who edged out Villarreal when they played here. They did share out three goals that day and I think these teams will both score on Match Day 4.

With the importance of the three points on the line, I think the teams will take risks to win this game too and I think it is worth backing at least four goals to be shared out between these teams on Thursday.


Vidi v PAOK Pick: This has been a Group that has been dominated by Chelsea and not seen one home win outside of the two the English club have earned in the section.

Vidi were beaten at home by BATE Borisov who have lost at home to PAOK who were last seen losing to Vidi at home which means second place in the Group is wide open.

Both teams will have all to play for on Thursday and I am slightly surprised PAOK are the favourites away from home. It wasn't an undeserved loss at home two weeks ago and so the layers are expecting a lot for things to be turned around that significantly.

However PAOK are far better than what they showed in the game at home and Vidi are a hard team to read. They can certainly make this a very competitive game and I think both teams will have their chances to score which makes the price on seeing both scoring in this fixture look appealing enough.

An early goal could really open the whole game up with the three points being so important for both teams assuming Chelsea beat BATE Borisov in the other game in the Group.


Arsenal v Sporting Pick: The win in Portugal two weeks has put Arsenal on the brink of making it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League and this is clearly a competition that Unai Emery wants to be successful in.

He has won the Europa League as manager multiple times as manager of Sevilla and Emery has admitted he would prefer returning to the Champions League with a trophy rather than simply finishing in the top four of the Premier League.

Arsenal look good in the Premier League despite back to back draws against Crystal Palace and Liverpool and they will want to get back to winning ways ahead of the next international break. Two home games remain before the international break begins and Emery looks to be a manager who will play strong teams in the Europa League so I am not concerned about backing The Gunners.

Two weeks they looked significantly better than Sporting and I expect the home team to frank that form. As solid a start Sporting have made to the new season it is clear they are not the best European travellers with 4 losses from their last 6 away European ties.

Losing key players in the summer has not put Sporting in as difficult a position as was suggested it was going to be, but they are going to need to be a lot better on Match Day 4 than they were when they hosted Arsenal.

All in all it is hard to see anything other than a strong Arsenal win as Emery looks to secure a place in the Last 32. The manager should pick a team to reflect his desire to put the Europa League aside until February prior to the busy festive period in England and I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap.


Bayer Leverkusen v Zurich Pick: After a 3-2 win for Zurich on Match Day 3 between these teams in Switzerland I am expecting to see another high-scoring game between Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich when they meet for the second time in this Group.

The two teams look certain to be heading into the Last 32 of the Europa League together, but Bayer Leverkusen will want to get back on track in trying to win the Group.

Leverkusen games at home have been full of goals as they have shown a real attacking intent, but the Bundesliga team have not been as strong defensively as they would like. Even a Zurich team coming out of the Switzerland top flight can cause problems for Leverkusen, although I am expecting the German team to have enough going forward to hurt their visitors too.

Zurich really have nothing to lose here and that should see them take part in an entertaining game. A draw would put them in command of the Group, but Zurich will be looking to work the counter attack throughout this fixture and I do think there will be goals in this one.

Backing at least four more to be shared out by Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich after the five shared out in Switzerland is my selection.


Celtic v Leipzig Pick: Both Celtic and Leipzig are coming into Match Day 4 in decent form and I do think this is going to be a much more competitive fixture than when they met in Germany two weeks ago.

On that day Leipzig were far too good for Celtic and the Bundesliga club could have won by a much larger margin than the eventual 2-0 scoreline.

It was a bad day in the office for Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic players, but they should be able to produce a much more all around effort when playing at Celtic Park. They have not been dominant at home, but Celtic have won 5 of their last 6 European games here and they are facing a Leipzig team who are still finding their feet when it comes to travelling for European games.

Leipzig did win at Rosenborg in this Group though which will give them the belief they will need to take into this game.

Overall it looks very difficult to pick a winner, but I would have to expect there will be more chances in front of goal for both teams. They created enough two weeks ago to share out at least three goals and the situation for Celtic is clear that they likely need to win this game which means they could leave spaces for Leipzig to exploit in this one.

Celtic should be able to be a little better in all aspects of their game in this fixture and I think both teams will be able to score in this game. With the situation as it is, I will look for these teams to share out at least three goals on Thursday in what could be one of the more entertaining Europa League games to be played on Match Day 4.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.85 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Inter Milan-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Napoli-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Valencia - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lazio & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna-Villarreal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vidi-PAOK Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen-Zurich Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic-Leipzig Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November: 5-5, - 1.66 Units (20 Units Staked, - 8.30% Yield)