NFL Week 13 Picks 2023 (November 30-December 4)

It might have started poorly with the Detroit Lions laying another egg on Thanksgiving Day, but the rest of the Week 12 Picks could not have gone any better in what is the best return from a single week in the season so far.

There are still six regular season weeks to be played though and so plenty can still go wrong, which means the focus has to remain to ensure a positive return at the end of the 2023 season. The PlayOffs can always be a bit more difficult to manage, but the hope is that a solid return in the regular season will push some momentum into those selections in the run to the Super Bowl.

Thanksgiving Weekend is certainly seen as the benchmark for the focus to turn to those PlayOff runs, although we do have a smaller Week 13 schedule with a number of teams having a late Bye Week. Even then, the games increase in importance and we will begin to see some real separation as far as Divisional titles and the coveted Number 1 Seed in each Conference is concerned.

The AFC continues to produce a mass of teams chasing the Wild Card spots, but the same could be said for the NFC after the likes of Seattle and Minnesota were beaten in Week 12. There are certainly fewer contenders in the NFC, but no one should doubt the quality of those at the top of that Conference and we should get some huge games between now and the Super Bowl in February.

Last week I wrote about the way the potential PlayOff picture could shape up in both Conferences, but also stated that things change dramatically week after week.

The feeling that the Houston Texans could win the AFC South was hugely dependent on beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12, but that was not the case and now the Jaguars are a team targeting the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.

The Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions suffered big losses in Week 12 that will dent some of their ambitions- the Browns looked like a Wild Card contender, but another Quarter Back injury has dampened their expectations after losing in Denver, while the Lions hopes of finishing with the top Seed in the NFC look to be over after the defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

In saying all that, the suggestion that the Buffalo Bills would miss the PlayOffs looks much stronger after another defeat and they will need this Bye Week desperately. Things have to figured out very quickly with games against Kansas City and Dallas in Week 14 and 15 respectively, especially in the AFC where a number of teams are ahead of the 10th placed Bills with games running down.

Following the results in Week 12, the top five in my standings are as follows:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (10-1): Overtime drama saw the Eagles become the first team with double digit wins for the season. They host the 49ers this week and a win would put the Philadelphia Eagles in a very strong position to finish with the top Seed in the NFC.

2) San Francisco 49ers (9-3): they look like the team they were earlier in the season and are in complete control of the NFC West. Revenge and redemption will be on the minds as they travel East to face the Eagles, while a win would put San Francisco in a strong position to earn the top Seed in the Conference instead.

3) Baltimore Ravens (9-3): it was not the most convincing Offensive showing, but the Defensive unit is for real and going to get healthier through the Bye Week. The last four regular season games will get the Baltimore Ravens into PlayOff mode pretty quickly and they could be the team to beat in the AFC.

4) Kansas City Chiefs (8-3): the defending Super Bowl Champions will have something to say about that and looked better in Week 12. The Chiefs also look to have a very manageable end to the regular season and have to be favourites to earn the top Seed in the AFC and all roads going through Arrowhead would make them favourites for another Super Bowl appearance.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3): a case could be made for Detroit, Miami or Dallas to occupy this position, but the Jaguars were most impressive in Week 12 with an important road win over the surging Houston Texans. The Dolphins and Cowboys are yet to beat 'good teams', which means they are still in the 'show me' category, while the Lions loss to the Green Bay Packers was really disappointing.

The top two face off in an incredibly good looking game on Sunday afternoon, while the Ravens are on a Bye Week. All three will still be involved in the top five next week, while only upsets could see Kansas City and Jacksonville knocked out (both are big favourites in Week 13).

Assuming those two avoid the upsets, those five teams will likely be my top five next week too, perhaps in a different order. However, that is when things will really begin to be shaken up with Philadelphia and  San Francisco facing big Divisional games, while Kansas City and Jacksonville have tough Conference games on deck.

It may also be a time when the PlayOff picture really begins to clear up, but it is important for the top teams to not overlook Week 13 opponents to the big games ahead.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Both of these teams played Divisional rivals on Thanksgiving Day and both have a very important Divisional game coming up in Week 14, but there is plenty to keep the Dallas Cowboys (8-3) and Seattle Seahawks (6-5) focused on one another on Thursday Night Football.

Instead of benefiting from a few extra days off, these two teams are playing on a 'regular' schedule between games, albeit on Thursday rather than the more traditional Sunday. That may actually be good news for the Cowboys and Seahawks who play the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers respectively in Week 14 and each team is trailing those Divisional leaders by two games.

Winning on Thursday Night Football would mean an opportunity for the Cowboys or Seahawks to really enjoy Sunday evening when the Eagles and 49ers take lumps out of one another and Dallas and Seattle will be hoping an opportunity to close the gap completely to those Divisional leaders is in front of them in Week 14.

Looking ahead would be a mistake and the teams are meeting in Week 13 after different Thanksgiving Day experiences- the Cowboys blew out the Washington Commanders, while the Seahawks suffered a blow out defeat to the very strong looking 49ers.

Pete Carroll has to be concerned with the run of games coming up for Seattle and he will be hoping that Geno Smith is healthier with another week of recovery under his belt. The Quarter Back had a rough day in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers, but Smith is not going to have things any easier against this Dallas Cowboys Defensive unit.

The Offensive Line has been struggling and Kenneth Walker III is set to miss another game at Running Back so even the hope of being able to establish the ground attack may be beyond the Seahawks. It is almost vital for them to be able to run the ball if only to slow down this Cowboys pass rush that is likely going to be in Geno Smith's any time he drops back to throw down the field.

Last week the 49ers pressure made it next to impossible for the Seahawks to get much going through the air and the feeling is that this game is going to look very similar on that side of the ball. It has to be a big concern for the Seattle fans with the team dropping back to back games to fall into a closer Wild Card race than may have been expected a couple of weeks ago.

We may get a similar look on the Offensive side of the ball to what we saw out of Seattle on Thanksgiving Day and a major concern is that the Defense is not going to be able to slow down a Cowboys team that put up 45 points in their own Turkey Day outing.

All season we have seen Dallas dominate at home and they are playing with a strong rhythm under Mike McCarthy's guidance since he took over the play-calling on this side of the ball. They are unlikely to be distracted by the upcoming game against the Philadelphia Eagles as that will be almost meaningless unless Dallas can win this one and the feeling is that the Cowboys will be able to do what they like when they have the ball in their hands.

Dak Prescott is seemingly never that far away from throwing in a really poor outing, but he will be able to rely on this Offensive Line to give him time in the pocket. The Dallas Offensive Line has also been very strong at opening up holes for Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle, while both players are also going to be a key part of the passing game.

Earlier in the season the Seahawks Defense looked to be playing at a high level, but they have found things more difficult of late and this Dallas team are capable of finding a balance that is tough to stop.

As long as Dak Prescott remains focused and does not have his multi-turnover kind of day, the Quarter Back should be able to work out of a clean pocket and the Cowboys can keep the chains moving with consistency throughout this contest.

Dallas have remained perfect as the home favourite with a 5-0 record against the spread and they can match the kind of dominant wins that the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have handed out to Seattle.

The Defensive unit can step up and make some big plays in the second half to ensure the Cowboys are able to pull away and they are expected to win by double digits on Thursday Night Football.

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders Pick: After the crushing loss at the Dallas Cowboys, Ron Rivera may have feared that his time as Head Coach of the Washington Commanders (4-8) was going to come to an end. That is still looking likely at the end of the season, but Rivera remains in charge, even if he has been told that friend and Defensive Co-Ordinator Jack Del Rio had to be let go.

It was never going to be easy for any Defensive Co-Ordinator as soon as the Commanders began to trade away key pass rushers, which has exposed the Washington Secondary.

Now they have to face the Miami Dolphins (8-3) and the high-powered Offensive unit that is run by Mike McDaniels, although recent weeks have been tougher for the Dolphins. They were never going to sustain the early season numbers, but Miami have got room for improvement on recent outings and they are simply not as effective on the road as they are at home.

In saying that, Miami did win on the road last week at the New York Jets and they will have a balanced approach that is going to be very difficult for the Washington Commanders to deal with.

Raheem Mostert has shown he can power the running game for the Dolphins and he should help establish the run against this Washington Defensive Line that has struggled. With a pass rush not nearly as effective without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington's Secondary have really been having problems against any Quarter Back they have faced, and Tua Tagovailoa should be able to get Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle very much into the action.

The Miami Dolphins are not producing their very best Offensively, but this is the chance to 'get right' and make sure they are keeping the pressure on those below them in the AFC East.

However, the wins have kept coming from the Dolphins without big Offensive performances thanks to an improving Defense under Vic Fangio's guidance. They have gotten healthier, even if they have lost Jaelan Phillips for the season, and the Dolphins have looked like they can produce enough on this side of the ball to really believe they could make a run to the Super Bowl.

A statement can be made in this game against a Washington team struggling in all aspects of their Football.

Sam Howell has not been helped by this Offensive Line, who will also have a difficult time establishing the run against the improving Miami Defensive Line. That puts even more pressure on the Quarter Back and he is going to be facing a Miami Secondary that has made plenty of big plays, just ask Tim Boyle from Week 12.

Those plays could give the Dolphins those extra possessions that will be needed to cover a number like this one on the road, and Miami have the capabilities to do that.

A big road favourite is not an ideal team to be backing, but this is a good spot for the Miami Dolphins to have a big game on both sides of the ball and they can win and cover.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There has to be some frustration with the surprisingly poor performance on Thanksgiving Day, but the Detroit Lions (8-3) remain in control of the NFC North. Head Coach Dan Campbell will have been looking forward to this road game, but he will have spent a few extra days with his players to prepare them to bounce back from the home defeat to the Green Bay Packers.

They are facing the New Orleans Saints (5-6) in Week 13 and the home team are still very much in contention for a place in the post-season, despite the losing record.

The NFC South has proven to be one of the weaker Divisions in the NFL with all four teams holding a losing record and the Saints are sitting alongside the Atlanta Falcons with their 5-6 mark. The defeat to the Falcons in Week 12 will have really hurt New Orleans, but they will be playing at home in this one and that has to give them a chance to bounce back.

However, the Saints are dealing with a huge amount of injuries and have an important Divisional game on deck, which may take some of the focus away from this game. New Orleans will be keen to win, but playing without a number of key performers on both sides of the ball makes it very difficult to imagine how the Saints can keep themselves competitive.

The likes of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Kendre Miller are all likely to be missing from the New Orleans Offensive unit, while Alvin Kamara may have to be used more effectively in the passing game. The Running Back is very capable, but he may not have a lot of success pounding the ball against the Lions Defensive Line and it becomes tougher for Derek Carr at Quarter Back without some of the names mentioned.

While he can target Kamara and Michael Thomas, being without Olave and Shaheed is a tough situation for Derek Carr. There have been some problems in the Lions Secondary in recent games and they were really taken aback by the Green Bay passing attack on Thanksgiving Day, but it is going to be very hard for Derek Carr to replicate that with back up Receivers on the field.

However, the Saints are going to have some opportunities to move the ball as long as they can avoid the turnovers that have swing games against them.

It is also going to be a difficult day trying to slow down the Detroit Offense, which is going to want to make a point after the defeat to the Packers when Jared Goff was guilty of really hurting his team with turnovers.

Jared Goff should be playing out of a clean pocket, but the Quarter Back will also benefit from being able to hand the ball to David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs who should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground behind the Lions Offensive Line. In recent games, the Saints have not been able to stop the run very effectively and Montgomery and Gibbs should be able to showcase their tandem powers at the Running Back position.

This is going to open up some of the passing lanes for Jared Goff and the Lions can recover from their defeat on Thanksgiving Day.

Road favourites had a very good Week 12, but it is not easy to win by big margins in hostile environments, although the extra preparation time between games is an advantage for Dan Campbell's team. The Lions have been better at home over the last twelve months, but playing in an indoor Stadium is not going to be a problem for them in Week 13 and they can win and cover here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Even the return of Kyler Murray has not been able to turn things around for the Arizona Cardinals (2-10) and this season cannot end quickly enough. They are set to earn a high Draft Pick, although the players on the roster will want to be kept around for a rebuild, while also trying to play spoiler for those chasing post-season spots.

Games against Divisional rivals will mean a lot more to the players in general, and you have to question where Arizona will find the motivation to win this game. For starters they are facing a non-Conference opponent and the Cardinals are playing in an early slot on Sunday afternoon.

They are also facing a Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) team looking to prove that former Offensive Co-Ordinator Matt Canada was the problem having won their first game since Canada was fired. It was a very strong Offensive effort to beat the Cincinnati Bengals and the Steelers have a good chance to back that up against this Cardinals Defense which has been struggling.

A big problem for the Cardinals is that the Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run at all- with that in mind, you have to think this is a really bad match up for Arizona when facing Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris and this Pittsburgh Offensive Line which has opened up some big running lanes in recent games.

Kenny Pickett has been banged up at Quarter Back, but he should be able to operate out of a relatively clean pocket if the Steelers are running the ball as they should be able to do. He can then target his Receivers from third and manageable spots to keep the chains moving, while Pickett may even be able to open up and take some deep shots down the field.

The expectation is that Pittsburgh should be able to produce another relatively strong outing on the Offensive side of the ball and that will put some pressure on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals Offense.

James Connor will be highly motivated to produce a big game in a City he loves, but the Running Back could have a tough time with an improving Pittsburgh Defensive Line. He could be helped by Kyler Murray's ability to scramble, which may mean Connor can become a key part of any RPO plays that are run by Arizona, but the Steelers have clamped down on the run with enough strength to force Murray to beat them through the air.

It has made life tougher playing behind this Arizona Offensive Line, and Kyler Murray is not exactly blessed with the most consistent of skill players. Marquise Brown is a former Baltimore Raven who would love to remind the Steelers what they might have been 'missing', but he is banged up an the Cardinals are likely going to be throwing with a collapsing pocket all around Murray.

That could potentially lead to a mistake or two from the Quarter Back and the Pittsburgh Steelers may produce one of their bigger wins of the season.

There has to be a slight concern that Pittsburgh are set to play on Thursday Night Football, but they will not want to take advantage of the fact that AFC North leaders Baltimore are not playing in Week 13. Add in the fact that the Week 14 game in a few days time is against the really bad New England Patriots and the Steelers should have the motivation and focus to win this one by more than a Touchdown.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

NFL Week 13 Picks 2017 (November 30-December 4)

With the bye weeks over and only five weeks of the regular season remaining this is the time of the season when teams are looking to get on a positive roll as the Play Offs fast approach.

You are beginning to see the better teams separate from the others, although the chase for the Wild Card spot in the both the AFC and NFC are going to go down to the wire.

One team that was officially eliminated last week were the New York Giants and it was later decided that Eli Manning would no longer be the starting Quarter Back for the rest of the season. The two time Super Bowl Champion has not had much help with his top Receivers all banged up, a porous Offensive Line and a rushing Offense that has not been able to produce consistently, so it was something of a surprise to hear Manning had been demoted behind Geno Smith and Davis Webb.

Most former New York Giants players have reacted negatively to the decision which is likely going to spark the beginning of the end of Manning's time here in New York, while the Quarter Back himself was clearly emotional.

You have to say it was not a great look for the Giants who have been a mess this season and I think the treatment of Manning is in poor taste. I get you want to see what you have at Quarter Back with Smith and Webb behind Manning, while the chances of a higher Draft Pick are increased with either of those two behind Center, but this felt like something more and I would be stunned if Manning is the starting Quarter Back for the Giants in Week 1 of the 2018 season.


For other teams the focus will remain on the field as many look to move into a position to challenge for a Wild Card spot in the Play Offs. The top five have not changed too much for me in recent weeks and I think these teams have begun to separate from the rest and at this stage I would be stunned if any of them were to miss the Play Offs.

1) Philadelphia Eagles (10-1): This looks the most likely Super Bowl candidate from the NFC and the franchise have history when they have gotten to this kind of position before to make it to the big game.

2) New England Patriots (9-2): The defending Super Bowl Champions will be tough to stop getting back to the big game if they can secure home field advantage through the Play Offs.

3) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2): The Offense is getting close to top speed just in time for the Play Offs, while the Defensive young core will feel they can make the plays to take their team to the Super Bowl.

4) Minnesota Vikings (9-2): A win in Detroit on Thanksgiving has given the Minnesota Vikings complete control of the NFC North and they have shown they can win big games.

5) Los Angeles Rams (8-3): There are a few NFC teams with an 8-3 record, but the Los Angeles Rams look the most balanced on both sides of the ball. They have every chance of winning the NFC West, although that will likely mean hosting a Wild Card Game in January. However that is still a huge improvement for this floundering franchise.


There are a few teams dangerously making their move up the standings with the stand out team perhaps being the Los Angeles Chargers who are closing in on the free falling Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.

Now who would have predicted not one, but both Los Angeles teams making the Play Offs? That has become a real thing.


In fact I made a few predictions for the way the Play Offs will shake out by predicting each of the remaining games on the schedule. Now that can obviously change week by week when the upsets occur, which will happen in the NFL, but right now the twelve teams I have making the Play Offs are as follows:

AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville and Kansas City.

NFC: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta and Carolina.

Two representatives from both the AFC South and AFC West as well as three teams from the NFC South means there will be little room for error for those teams. I also had the Rams and Chargers both winning their Divisions, which would have been a huge price if you had predicted that back in September (or even after the Chargers really poor start).

The way it broke down also suggested a 10-6 Baltimore and 10-6 Seattle would both miss out in the AFC and NFC respectively, but there is a lot of football and injuries to negotiate before you get down to the Play Offs.

I also note how much the NFC South teams still have to play one another and that could quickly change the Play Off picture if one team begins to dominate against the others.


So has everyone noticed how much the favourites have been dominating in the NFL since Week 7? It hasn't even mattered when teams have been asked to cover big numbers, and the favourites are covering at almost 70% since Week 7.

That's plain ridiculous when it comes to handicapping games because the points can be so appealing at times, but it seems the luck has just come down on the side of the favourites. I've been on the right side of a couple of those with the Jaguars covering two weeks ago on a fumble returned for a Touchdown and Carolina hitting a Field Goal last week to beat the New York Jets. However the Carolina win was balanced out by the Giants loss who only saw Washington cover with a late kick in that one too.

But overall I have been taking plenty of dogs and not getting much barking going on.

Now you have to be careful in seeing whether numbers are being inflated by the oddsmakers who are trying to bounce back from what has been a terrible time for them. I am trying to do the same with some positive steps made in Week 12, although I did hate myself for picking the Steelers after seeing how the favourites performed earlier in the day.

Pittsburgh unsurprisingly kept things close with the Green Bay Packers and never looked like covering a huge spread to save the Vegas strip from having to knock down a couple of casinos. Fortunately I was on the right side of the Buffalo pick which was a rare underdog showing some life in Week 12, but again I would urge some caution because there is going to be a weekend sooner or later where the favourites get absolutely smashed to bits.

Now onto the Week 13 Picks.


Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: At the start of the week I was surprised to see the Dallas Cowboys as the slight favourites in this Thursday Night Football game, but that number has switched a couple of points to make the Washington Redskins favourites the closer we get to kick off.

That could be down to a couple of reasons.

The first is that the Washington Offensive Line looks like it could be close to full health this week and that is so important to how the Redskins can perform. The second is that Sean Lee is almost certainly to be missing for yet another game for the Dallas Cowboys and this is a Defensive unit who have struggled without their influential leader.

Kirk Cousins has to be feeling good if his Offensive Line is anything close to full health as that may give him a little more time to make his plays. It is a shame for Washington that their Receivers have also been banged up with both Terrelle Pryor and Jordan Reed absent, but there are still some talented players here and Cousins has found a way to make the big throws.

Interceptions can sometimes blight the Cousins performance, but in general he has been able to look after the ball, while the Cowboys Secondary have not been able to turn the ball over as frequently as they would have liked. The Redskins can also use Samaje Perine as a ball catching Running Back out of the backfield and I do think they will be able to move the chains in this one with Dallas still trying to work things out without Lee in the line up.

A healthier Offensive Line could also be in play for the Dallas Cowboys which is going to be absolutely huge for them considering how well the Washington Redskins have been able to get to the Quarter Back. In the last few weeks it has felt like Dak Prescott is playing behind the opponent's Defensive Line with how frequently he has had pressure in his face and the mobile Quarter Back has taken a number of big hits and Sacks.

The injuries up front are a big reason Dallas have not been able to score more than 9 points in any of their last three games and there are murmurings of discontent around Head Coach Jason Garrett too. However, having a healthier Offensive Line should give Prescott enough time to try and make his plays downfield, although he has to be careful throwing against a Washington Secondary that have played well.

It is hard to think the pocket will be completely clean either with the likes of Ryan Kerrigan capable of beating out a Lineman who may not be at 100%. That is where Prescott has to lean on the running game that has still churned out the yards even without Ezekiel Elliot in the line up, and I expect the Cowboys will have success doing that as long as this game is close.

Prescott has to look after the ball though and Interceptions have really been a problem for him in recent games. That has something to do with the pressure and hits he has taken, but the Redskins Secondary have thrived in taking the ball away and they could have a couple of turnovers on their way to a big road win.

The Cowboys did beat the Washington Redskins on the road earlier in the season, but they have not played them as well at home. In fact Dallas are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 home games against the Redskins, while the road team has covered in the last seven in this series.

Washington have been good on the road under Jay Gruden and they are 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen road games. They haven't always produced their best against the NFC East, but I like Washington in this Divisional game and I think they can get the better of the Dallas Cowboys in a game in which the loser is almost certainly out of the Play Off running.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: It has been a long wait for the Buffalo Bills to earn their way into Play Off Football and recent results had been going against them in their bid to snap a long run without reaching the Play Offs. However the big win at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12 has reignited the push, although they can't afford to drop too many games going forward with just five games left to go this season.

Even with that in mind, it is a big ask for the Buffalo Bills to beat the New England Patriots who look to be rounding into the form that took them all the way to the Super Bowl last season. They have a 3 game led in the AFC East over the Buffalo Bills with five games left to play and the bigger picture for the Patriots is trying to get into a position where they can earn their place as the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.

That may come down to the game with the Pittsburgh Steelers which is still to come, but Bill Belichick won't be looking ahead as that is not his style. His teams have dominated the Buffalo Bills in his time with the New England Patriots and this is another game where the Patriots should be able to get the better of their Divisional rivals.

Belichick does have a few injuries in his Defensive unit that will bother him, but he is also one of the smartest Head Coaches out there that will look to make Buffalo uncomfortable when they have the ball in their hands. Taking away what the Bills perceive to be their biggest weapon will be what Belichick will have focused on and that means New England playing the run effectively and making sure LeSean McCoy is not allowed to dominate.

At the start of the season it would have seemed like Buffalo would have had some success running the ball, but New England have been improving on the Defensive Line. At the same time Buffalo have had some difficulty in their run blocking and the Patriots should have success slowing them down with a spy on Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back.

Taylor doesn't make a lot of mistakes at Quarter Back but he isn't blessed with a lot of weapons in the passing game so the key for Buffalo is making sure they can run the ball effectively. Injuries in the New England Linebacker corps won't help the Patriots, but I still expect them to game plan effectively and I would imagine New England are able to do well enough Defensively to give Tom Brady and the Offensive unit the chance to win this one.

Tom Brady has loved facing the Bills throughout his career and he should have enough help in this one from his rushing attack to not have to do it all himself. The Bills traded away Marcel Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars and their run Defense has suffered since then which is an area New England can take advantage of to keep Brady in third and manageable down and distance.

It wasn't that long ago when New Orleans used Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to devastating effect against the Buffalo Bills and I can see New England doing the same with the likes of Dion Lewis and James White likely to have big games along with Rex Burkhead.

Being able to run the ball effectively against the Bills means teams have not needed to throw the ball against them which may have contributed to the Secondary's numbers. The Bills do have some talent in the Secondary, but Tom Brady is playing at a high level and I expect him to find the holes in this one and I can see New England covering a big number.

Tom Brady has owned the Bills and the New England Patriots are 11-2 against the spread in the last thirteen games in Buffalo. The last three wins have come by 15, 8 and 16 point margins for the New England Patriots and they are also 12-2 against the spread in the last fourteen road games.

Add in the fact that Buffalo are 12-27-2 against the spread in the last forty-one home games against a team with a winning record on the road and I will look for the Patriots to cover this big number.


Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Pick: The Houston Texans looked very happy about their future when watching Deshaun Watson lead them to an embarrassingly one-sided win over the Tennessee Titans earlier this season. Since then Watson has been lost to an ACL injury and that means the Quarter Back position has been manned by Tom Savage in his stead.

Savage has already shown he is little more than a back up level Quarter Back and another back breaking Interception saw the Houston Texans lose at the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. That has all but ended any lingering Play Off hopes, but they have been playing hard which will give Bill O'Brien some belief in the future prospects of the team once Watson is back in time for the 2018 season.

For now they look in a tough situation when travelling for the second time in the space of a few days and facing a Titans team who will be backed by the fans baying for blood. The players will also be well aware of how they felt when being battered in Houston and the revenge angle can't be underplayed despite Tennessee's lofty position in the Division compared with Houston.

The Titans have won five of their last six games too, although they haven't always convinced in that run. Winning those games does breed confidence though and I think the Titans will be able to beat a team who are playing back to back road games which can be tough in the NFL especially when one of those was on Monday Night Football.

It won't necessarily be an easy game for Tennessee by any stretch of the imagination as there are some kinks to work out for them. DeMarco Murray is banged up and the rushing Offense has been affected by that, while the Houston Defensive Line have continued to play very well.

There will be pressure on Marcus Mariota when he does drop back to throw too, while the Quarter Back has been guilty of some poor throws which have led to Interceptions and that could keep the Texans around in this one. However I also think the Texans Secondary is one where there are a few more holes and I would think Mariota can make enough plays through the air to put the Titans in a strong position.

You would have to say Houston would have every chance of the upset if Watson was at Quarter Back, but teams have not been respecting Savage the same way and I think the Titans Defensive unit can make some big plays. Like Houston, it has been tough to run the ball against Tennessee and I don't think the Texans are going to be able to have a lot of success on the ground with the Titans wanting to make sure they force Tom Savage to beat them.

Tennessee have also been able to get plenty of pressure up front so Savage won't have a lot of time to throw from third and long spots. He has shown that pressure can lead to mistakes and I can see the Titans being able to force a couple of errant throws which may lead to a couple of turnovers that helps Tennessee pull away.

The Titans have not been a great team to back at home with some poor numbers, but the favourite is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven in this series. I expect a fully focused Tennessee team to take to the field after what happened in Houston and they can win this one and cover the spread.


Had a busy Week so the rest of the Sunday NFL Picks are in the 'MY PICKS' section below.

MY PICKS: Washington Redskins - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)