NFL Week 12 Picks 2022 (November 24-28)

With the World Cup having begun, the short week into Thanksgiving Day in the NFL feels even shorter than usual.

Four games a day are tough to deal with at the World Cup- of course you want to watch as much of the tournament as possible.

For now you can read my Picks from the three Thanksgiving Day games in the NFL and I will add further selections here before the Sunday and Monday games are set to be played.

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions Pick: Circumstances were out of the control of the Buffalo Bills (7-3) in Week 11 as Mother Nature decided to drop a huge bucket of snow all over their hometown. It meant having to move their scheduled game with the Cleveland Browns to Detroit and it just happens to be a few days before the Buffalo Bills were scheduled to face the home team Detroit Lions (4-6) on Thanksgiving Day. The Bills were able to rally and beat the Browns in this Stadium on Sunday and they will be looking for a second victory in a row and to snap the Detroit three game winning run.

In a very competitive AFC East, the Bills can lay down a marker before the rest of the Division plays in Week 12 and a win would mean they move to the top of the East. At the moment they share the same record with the Miami Dolphins, but the latter hold the tie-breaker and have what should be a relatively straight-forward game to win out of their Bye Week on Sunday.

Sean McDermott and the Coaching staff will be worrying less about what Miami are going to do and instead will be thinking about the Buffalo Bills and how they are going to get the better of the Detroit Lions. Josh Allen still hasn't looked completely like himself since the reports came out about an elbow issue that the Quarter Back has been dealing with and he failed to throw for 200 plus yards in Week 11, despite the win over the Cleveland Browns.

No one associated with the Bills is overly concerned about Allen and the extra few days should have allowed other players to get over an illness that had swept through the team. The quick turnaround is not ideal, but the Buffalo Bills have been used to playing on Thanksgiving Day in recent seasons and that should mean they are well prepared thanks to a strong Head Coach and other members around him.

Josh Allen did do plenty of damage with his legs last week and I think he will be able to do the same in this one against the Lions Defensive Line which is still giving up over 5 yards per carry through their winning run. Handing the ball to Devin Singletary and James Cook should keep the Bills in front of the chains as teams have been too afraid to load the box and allow Josh Allen and the powerful passing game to take control.

Establishing the run does naturally open up the passing lanes too and there are injuries in the Detroit Secondary which can be exploited by Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. While there are still some concerns about the Josh Allen elbow, he can have a stronger outing than Sunday in the same Stadium and the Buffalo Bills should be able to move the ball up and down the field with confidence.

This is a big spread though and the question is whether this Detroit Lions can continue to be as competitive as they have been in recent games. Three wins in a row in the NFL has to be respected, but the Lions have have actually lost the yardage battle in each of those, although the fans may point to how much they pushed the Miami Dolphins as to their ability to stay with the Buffalo Bills in this one.

Jared Goff has shown he is more than a serviceable Quarter Back in the NFL, but he will need the Running Backs to do their part in this one and try and extend drives. While it has been possible to rip off some gains on the ground against the Buffalo Defensive Line, the Lions have not reached 4 yards per carry in their recent winning run and that is a concern.

They can lean on Jared Goff and ask him to make the plays with his arm, especially as he is playing behind an Offensive Line that has offered plenty of protection. Injuries have also been hurting the effectiveness of the Buffalo Secondary, and so Goff could easily get into a position where the backdoor cover can be secured, especially with this number of points being given to the home underdog.

Playing a clean game and not offering up extra possessions is the key for the Detroit Lions and I do think they are capable of doing that with Jared Goff being given time to scan the field. Winning the game is a big ask, but the Lions have not been blown out at home this season and I think that is important to their mindset, while the three game winning run will clearly give the home team some confidence.

At the same time, the Buffalo Bills have not really been able to pull clear of teams on the road since their opening Week crushing of the Los Angeles Rams. They have played four road games since then and they have been decided by margins of 2, 3, 4 and 3 points and this makes me believe they are being asked to cover too many points here.

Of course the Buffalo Bills are capable of making me look very foolish with their high-octane Offensive firepower, but the Detroit Lions have shown they can be very competitive and may score enough points to make it very difficult for the road team to win by double digits.

I have to respect the fact that the Buffalo Bills crushed the Saints in New Orleans as a big road favourite on Thanksgiving Day last season, but the Detroit Lions are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine at home and I will look for them to produce enough Offense to keep this one within the number too.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It is Thanksgiving Day and that means the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) will be hosting a game for the 45th year in a row, although you cannot ignore how poorly they have played on the day as far as against the spread goes. The Cowboys have made a habit of failing to cover as a home favourite so it is difficult to see them in this spot against the New York Giants (7-3) in a huge game in the NFC East.

Both have strong records through eleven weeks of the regular season, but both the Cowboys and Giants continue to chase the Philadelphia Eagles who have a two game lead in the Division. The Eagles hold a win over the Dallas Cowboys too, but the Cowboys have the tie-breaker over the New York Giants after a road win over their Divisional rivals in Week 3.

Losing a grip of that tie-breaker will make it very difficult to track down the Eagles in the Division and force the Dallas Cowboys to think about the Wild Card race, but they are coming into this one with a load of momentum having crushed the Minnesota Vikings. On the same day, the New York Giants were perhaps overlooking the Detroit Lions and they have now lost two of their last three games to slip into third place in what looks an incredibly competitive Division.

We are going to learn plenty about the New York Giants in the next four weeks when they play four Divisional games and so this is a big spot in which they will be trying to bounce back from recent setbacks. First year Head Coach Brian Daboll has admitted that he is looking for a reaction from his players who have just lost some of their Offensive spark in recent outings as injuries continue to affect their performances.

Through the course of much of this season, the Giants have been able to pound the rock very effectively, but in their last three games they have only managed to pick up 3.5 yards per carry. Ultimately stopping the run is the weakness of the Dallas Defensive unit and so the Giants have to be confident in picking up the bigger gains, but it is very difficult for New York and Daniel Jones if they are not able to establish the run, or if the game is out of hand and they have to throw the ball.

Saquon Barkley should have a decent game and Daniel Jones will make plays with his legs, but the New York Giants will have to play a clean game if they are going to upset the home town Cowboys. Any time they are behind the chains, the Giants Offensive Line will be under the same pressure they were in Week 3 when they were not able to give Daniel Jones the time in the pocket to make his plays down field.

Injuries in the Wide Receiver room also means the Giants are struggling for options outside of the rejuvenated Darius Slayton. He can offer Daniel Jones a passing threat, but this Dallas Defensive unit have been very impressive by generating a host of pressure up front and the Secondary then being able to step up and make some big plays.

It just feels like a game in which the Giants are going to struggle to have a consistent Offensive outing and especially if they begin to chase the game. That is a distinct possibility with the Dallas Cowboys looking much more potent now Dak Prescott is back behind Center and they have piled up at least 28 points in three consecutive games.

The two home games since Prescott's return have both ended in strong wins for the Dallas Cowboys and the balance they have Offensively is hard to ignore. Ezekiel Elliot may be having his time managed after a return from an injury, but Tony Pollard has shown he has Home Run speed out of the backfield and the Running Back is a massive threat behind this Offensive Line and in the open field.

Dallas should be able to establish the run with confidence and being in front of the chains makes things very comfortable for Dak Prescott. The Quarter Back is well protected by his Offensive Line and there are holes to exploit in the New York Secondary with the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz all capable of making big plays, and that is also ignoring the threat Tony Pollard poses leaking out of the backfield.

Avoiding mistakes is the key for Dak Prescott who was guilty of that against the Green Bay Packers in a defeat a couple of weeks ago. In general he has played well on his return from injury and I do think the Cowboys will be able to pull away in this one and then tee off on Daniel Jones as he tries to drag the Giants back into the game.

As mentioned, it is hard to trust the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day having seen them fail to cover so often as the home favourite and this is a big spread to deal with.

However, the Cowboys have matched up very well with the Giants and have a 9-2 record against the spread in the last eleven between these Divisional rivals, while Dallas are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games when hosting the Giants.

The Cowboys have a 22-8 record against the spread in their last thirty against their Divisional rivals, while the New York Giants are 0-4 against the spread in those Divisional battles. The game may come down to the final possession as far as this number goes, but I think the Dallas Defensive unit carve up Daniel Jones behind his Offensive Line and they can produce another dominant home win after blow out victories over Detroit and Chicago.

New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: There are ways to lose a game and the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) will be looking for a much better all around effort than the one they put into their Week 11 home drubbing by the Dallas Cowboys. The Vikings remain in firm control of the NFC North where the rest of the Division have a losing record, but they have lost a bit of ground in the race for the top Seed in the Conference as they prepare to play the third game on Thanksgiving Day.

This is a non-Conference game, but it will be as important to the hosts as it will be for the New England Patriots (6-4) who are one of four teams with a winning record in the AFC East. They are only a game behind the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in the East, and have to face those Divisional rivals three times before the end of the regular season.

The Patriots will be playing on Thursday Night Football again next week and the short preparation time for this game could hurt them, especially after the tough and gruelling win over the New York Jets on Sunday. The Defensive unit played well for the Patriots, but they struggled Offensively and they need to be much better if they are going to compete with the likes of the Bills and the Dolphins within the Division.

Mac Jones has really not pushed on at Quarter Back as the Patriots would have liked, but they should be able to have success running the ball in this one. In recent games the Offensive Line have had some issues opening holes up front, but they may find that a little easier against the Minnesota Vikings than in the games against the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts.

Finding it easier is one thing, but Mac Jones is going to have to make some plays in the passing game to prevent the Vikings from simply loading the box. The Quarter Back has been guilty of being a little indecisive inside the pocket and the pass protection has broken down around him when he has been left in obvious passing down and distance so it is important for Mac Jones and the Patriots to get the run going.

Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are a good one-two combo at Running Back, while the former has picked up some significant yards as a pass-catcher leaking out of the backfield and that could be key for the New England Patriots.

Even if not at his best, Mac Jones has to avoid the mistakes and give his Defensive unit a chance of at least keeping the Patriots competitive in this game. Bill Belichick has the Patriots playing really well on this side of the ball and he will have been really encouraged to see the way the Vikings struggled against the Dallas Cowboys last week, especially as Christian Darrisaw has been ruled out on the Minnesota Offensive Line.

If Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings hope to establish Dalvin Cook and cool down any pass rush pressure the Patriots can generate, they could be in for a hard day in the office. The Patriots Defensive Line have held teams to 3.1 yards per carry in recent games and they will look to clamp down on the strong Running Back and force Kirk Cousins to have to step back to throw.

Last week the Quarter Back was absolutely destroyed by the Dallas pass rush and the New England Patriots certainly feel they will be able to get in Kirk Cousins' face throughout this one too. Pressure can lead to mistakes and that has been an issue with Cousins in his career when the pocket collapses around him and I do think the New England Secondary is capable of holding their own against Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

If Kirk Cousins has time, he will be able to make plays down the field with the strong play Jefferson gives him, but it is hard to imagine the Vikings can sort out the pass protection on a short week.

I can't ignore the fact that the Minnesota Vikings have had a strong habit of bouncing back from defeats, but I do think the New England Patriots can make the points count as the road underdog.

The Patriots are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall and I think they match up pretty well with the Minnesota Vikings with their Defensive unit capable of setting up short fields for Mac Jones and the Offense. With Bill Belichick at Head Coach, New England should be able to get the pass rush attacking Kirk Cousins and look for the mistakes that gives the team an opportunity to win here and I think they can be backed with the points with every chance of an outright win on the day.

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Despite having two games against the AFC South leaders to come before the end of the regular season, hopes are dwindling very quickly that the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) will be able to return to the NFL PlayOffs for the first time since 2017. A promising season has now turned into one where the Jaguars were beaten in six of their last seven games before the Bye Week and the extra preparation time may have come too late to save the season.

They are hosting the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) who have a one game lead at the top of the AFC North after recording a fourth win in a row out of their Bye Week. An illness had spread through the locker room ahead of the win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 11, but the Ravens should be healthier overall in terms of that illness.

However, injury continue to hold back the Baltimore Ravens and they are only hopeful that the likes of Ronnie Stanley and Mark Andrews are able to return this week. Gus Edwards could be back to join the Running Back committee used by the Coaching staff, but having Stanley and Andrews back would be a big boost for Lamar Jackson and the entire Offensive unit.

The win over the Carolina Panthers was largely down to the continued progress made by the Defensive unit, but the Ravens may feel there are going to be more chances for them with the ball in their own hands. For starters, the Offensive Line are still opening up holes for the team to run the ball efficiently and they may have some joy against a Jacksonville Defensive Line that went into the Bye Week just struggling to clamp down on the run as they have been for much of the season.

Dealing with a dual-threat Quarter Back like Lamar Jackson proved a big challenge when the Jaguars faced Daniel Jones and the New York Giants, while a returning Gus Edwards would give Baltimore another crease to pound the rock with success.

The absence of Mark Andrews has hurt the passing game with key Receivers already down with injuries, but Lamar Jackson should be able to find some holes to exploit in this one. For the majority of the game the Ravens will want to establish the run, but that will further open the issues in the Jaguars Secondary and I think Jackson will be able to keep the chains moving with his legs and his arm.

Establishing the run is likely going to be key for the Jacksonville Jaguars too and they do have a talented player in Travis Etienne who is enjoying a strong season. However, I have mentioned the progress being made by the Ravens and the Defensive Line have been rock-solid against the run which makes it difficult to believe they do not win at the line of scrimmage.

The overall season numbers are impressive, but the Ravens have been incredibly tough in recent games during their winning run. Over their last three games, Baltimore have held teams to 42 yards per game on the ground and, while I think the Jaguars have some success, I think they can at least force Trevor Lawrence to try and have to beat them through the air.

There have been times where Lawrence has looked like the Number 1 Pick that Jacksonville selected, but his Offensive Line protection has been breaking down in recent games and now the Jaguars have to deal with a productive Baltimore pass rush that loves to get to the Quarter Back. That pressure has led to turnovers and the Baltimore Secondary are also playing really well at the moment as they look to hold off the Cincinnati Bengals in the race for the Divisional crown.

Trevor Lawrence has just had issues with his consistency throwing the ball in recent games and I do think the Jaguars will come up short at home, even if it is tough for visiting teams to head to Florida at this time of the year.

On Sunday it could be wetter than normal and that should suit the Baltimore Ravens with their strength at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and I do think they can push their winning run to five games.

Covering isn't easy when you have an Offensive unit that have not really been pulling up trees of late, but I can see the Ravens Defensive unit stepping up and making the plays to put their team in a strong position.

Some will point to the Jaguars having a decent record out of their Bye Week, but current Head Coach Doug Pederson was only 1-4 against the spread out of a Bye with the Philadelphia Eagles. Jacksonville are also just 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen road games and they are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record.

Baltimore have managed to go 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games and I think they will be able to control the clock and make some big Defensive plays to swing this game in their favour too.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: The minute you hear a player saying it is not about revenge, you can almost certainly make the case that players have not forgotten about the teams that have ended their season the previous year. That is what will be on the mind of the Tennessee Titans (7-3) and Ryan Tannehill having been beaten as the home favourites against the Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) in the Divisional Round of the post-season having secured the top Seed in the AFC through the regular season.

Both of these teams will be targeting Divisional crowns in 2022 and this is a big game to see where the Titans and Bengals are. Both have been playing really well after disappointing starts to the season and that is underlined by the fact that the Bengals have won six of their last eight games, while the Titans have won seven of their last eight.

This feels like a game that could be key in working out Seeding come the end of the season and the Bengals will know the next two weeks have seen them scheduled to face the two teams they beat on their way to the Super Bowl. Handling the emotions might be as important as anything else, and they could be boosted by a returning Ja'Marr Chase.

Joe Mixon may not be available having entered the concussion protocol, but he was not likely to get much change out of the Tennessee Defensive Line which have been shutting down the run as the wins have piled up. This is one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL and the Bengals are not expected to have a lot of success with whoever gets the call to start, although the Running Backs are likely to be key figures in the passing game.

The main reason for that is the Titans Defensive Line have shut down the run and the pass rushers have been able to really get after the Quarter Back in third and long situations. They will feel they have a serious edge over the Cincinnati Offensive Line and that will mean Joe Burrow is likely going to be surrounded by pressure when he does drop back to throw, which makes those Running Backs strong safety blankets on which he is likely to rely.

If Joe Burrow can be given some time, he will feel his Receivers have a big edge over the Titans Secondary and the likes of Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will be able to push the ball down the field. Teams have been forced to rely on the throw considering how strong the Titans have been at the Defensive Line, but the pass rush pressure, which has been very effective, has not stopped someone like Patrick Mahomes from having a big game throwing the ball and that is a player that Joe Burrow will feel he can match.

Shutting down the Bengals completely is never going to happen in all reality, but I do think the pass rush will at least slow them down at times. Making them settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns will be seen as a big win, while you cannot ignore the fact that the despite the yards given up through the air, Tennessee's Defensive unit have held teams to under 19 points per game this season.

That is a number that will always give a team the chance to win games and Ryan Tannehill's return has given the Tennessee Titans a bit more dynamism to the Offensive play-calling. No one will confuse Tannehill with the elite Quarter Backs in the NFL, but he is more than a game manager and that means teams have to respect his passing arm, rather than loading the box to shut down the run.

In recent games Derrick Henry has not been operating at full tilt, but I do think he is still a huge body that will break down the Defensive Line with more and more carries. He has had some big games, but I think the mini-break between Week 11 and Week 12 is key for Henry as he looks to make an impact on a Cincinnati Defensive Line which has been playing well in recent games.

With the plan the Titans have, Derrick Henry will be able to give them a chance to control the clock and to wear down the Cincinnati Defensive unit by keeping them on the field for extended drives. Ryan Tannehill should also be well protected by an Offensive Line which is most happy when it comes to run blocking and the Quarter Back may feel he can make some plays to keep the Bengals honest when it comes to their Defensive schemes.

Cincinnati have a Secondary which is playing well, but Tannehill should be comfortable in third and manageable spots in this game and that is important for the Titans to try and earn that revenge for the defeat in the PlayOffs.

I do like the Tennessee Titans in the spot and I love Mike Vrabel as a Head Coach who has a 6-1 record against the spread in the last seven games where the Titans have been set as the home underdog. He is also 11-3 against the spread in a revenge situation when the Titans are being given points as is the case in Week 12.

The Bengals do have some strong trends which make them hard to oppose, but they are coming in off a tough road win at Pittsburgh and this is going to be another big physical effort. The Titans benefit from having a couple of extra days to prepare and I think the fans will be really up for this game which makes the points with the home team all the more appealing.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Non-Conference games tend to have a 'lesser' feel than other games on the NFL schedule, but in Week 12 every game matters. That is the case for the Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) who have barely remained alive in the season after a close Overtime win over the Denver Broncos, but everyone associated with the team will feel they need to win at least six of their remain seven games to have a chance of backing into the PlayOffs.

There is no doubt that it is a long shot now, but snapping the three game losing run gives the Raiders a glimmer of hope. The AFC is pretty loaded with talented teams though and the fact is that the Raiders have some tough games left on the schedule, but they can play spoiler with some of the talent that remains on a roster which has underachieved in 2022.

They have to take games as they come and next up for the Las Vegas Raiders is the Seattle Seahawks (6-4) who have lost their lead in the NFC West during their Bye Week. The team were beaten in Munich in Week 10, but this has been a strong season for the Seahawks who have the same record as the San Francisco 49ers at the top of their Division and will certainly be in the mix for a Wild Card spot in the NFC if they can get back on the horse and back to winning games.

Playing at home has proven to be a huge boost for the Seahawks who have a 3-1 record here and they will feel the defeat to the Atlanta Falcons was a game they should have won too.

Geno Smith has been a huge factor in the record having taken over from Russell Wilson at Quarter Back and he looks to have finally found a comfortable home in the NFL. The veteran Quarter Back was not someone that the fans would have had a lot of faith in, but Pete Carroll and the Coaching staff have been comfortable and Smith is playing well and not just simply managing games.

He has been helped by Kenneth Walker III who has come in at Running Back and picked up some huge gains behind this Offensive Line- I fully expect him to have a bounce back game after a couple of tougher days in the office and he should have success against the Raiders Defensive Line which has had issues clamping down on the run.

That will only aid the Seahawks all the more in keeping Geno Smith in comfortable spots on the field, while the Raiders lack of a consistent pass rush means he should have time in the pocket. The quality Receivers that Smith is throwing to should win on the outside and I do think the Seahawks will be able to move the ball with a lot of consistency throughout this game.

Running the ball will be key for the Raiders in this game too, but I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success against an improving Defensive Line. There are also suggestions that Josh Jacobs is banged up and I think there will be a real problem for the Las Vegas Raiders as they try and keep themselves in front of the chains.

Adding to the issues are the injuries to the likes of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller which has made the passing game that much tougher for Derek Carr. It has been clear for a number of seasons that Davante Adams will get open, as he did in Overtime for the win last week, but the Seahawks have a young, improving and hungry Secondary that have not been giving up much through the air.

That Secondary has been helped by considerable pass rush pressure, although getting to Derek Carr is not easy behind his strong Las Vegas Defensive Line. However, the longer he has to wait and the more the Seahawks can force him to look away from Adams, the better the chances to hit Derek Carr and allow the Secondary to make their big plays.

I really like what this Seattle Seahawks have been able to do in 2022 and I do think they will get the better of the Las Vegas Raiders with the way they match up with them on both sides of the ball.

Las Vegas are only 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games and had to put in a huge effort to win in Colorado last week, which could leave them short here. I know they can still make the post-season, but it is not going to be lost on the players as to how difficult that will be and I still don't think they are fully behind Josh McDaniels as Head Coach.

Pete Carroll does not have the best record out of the Bye Week in recent seasons, but his team tend to bounce back from losses very effectively and I think that will be the case here. They do have a big Divisional game coming up next, but the Seahawks can't afford to lose ground on the motoring San Francisco 49ers and I think that will see them focused and able to win and cover the spread.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: You could see how much the win meant to Nick Sirianni when the Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) outlasted the Indianapolis Colts, who have recently fired his friend Frank Reich. It was also important for the Eagles to bounce back from the defeat to the Washington Commanders as the unbeaten season turned to dust, while the Philadelphia Eagles are very much in a big fight to win the NFC East.

Targeting the Division crown may also lead to the overall Number 1 Seed in the NFC and that is also important to earn the sole Bye in the Conference through to the Divisional Round. Three road games in succession in December by decide their fate, especially as the Eagles will be facing two Divisional rivals in that run of games, but for now they are back on Sunday Night Football against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (4-7).

Anyone who thought the big comeback against the Dallas Cowboys may be the spark that would turn the Green Bay season around were in for a big disappointment in Week 11 as they were beaten by the Tennessee Titans at home. The Wild Card race is not over, but the Packers have a tough run to end this season and likely will miss out with a losing record.

Aaron Rodgers has simply not been able to get on the same page as his young Receivers often enough and the decision to trade away Davante Adams has been a poor one in Green Bay. It doesn't help that Rodgers has suggested he has been playing with an injury to the thumb and I do think the Packers will soon turn to Jordan Love and see whether he is the Quarter Back of the future like they anticipated when Drafting him in the First Round in 2020.

We are unlikely to see Rodgers and his Receivers have a lot of success against this Philadelphia Secondary who have been strong all season and who have the experience to blanket the Receiving options Aaron Rodgers has. The entire Packers throwing game have not been operating as we have become accustomed to, but they have been able to run the ball and that has been key for Green Bay when they have come up against the better teams in the NFL.

A couple of weeks ago I would have expected Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to have a lot of success on the ground, but those days may be behind the Eagles who have added big, experienced bodies into the middle of the Defensive Line. Last week they shut down the Indianapolis Colts on the ground and I think the Eagles have now covered up the one big weakness on the Defensive side of the ball, which makes them one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts has been given a lot of support from the front office with some of the players that have been brought in to surround him, although the injury to Dallas Goedert is a blow. The Eagles should be able to move forward without the Tight End who should be back by mid-December, and Hurts has still got some solid Receivers in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith who can turn his passes into huge plays.

I have to give the Green Bay Defensive Line credit for just looking a little more stout against the run in recent games, but this is a tough test for them. The threat of the passing game means they cannot concentrate on shutting down Miles Sanders, while Jalen Hurts is capable of making plays with his legs as much as his arm and that should keep the Eagles in front of the chains.

The Quarter Back is operating behind a big Offensive Line who will give him time to go through his progressions and I do think that will help the Eagles. There has been a slowing in the passing game from the Eagles in recent games, but that may also be down to playing with a lead and beginning to use clock management runs and I think the Eagles will be looking to make a statement having lost on Monday Night Football in Week 10.

Opposing Aaron Rodgers as an underdog has not been a successful play in his career, but this Packers team is well short of those we have seen the Quarter Back leading. The Packers are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games and they are facing an Eagles team who have been very confident at Lincoln Financial Field.

Covering will come down to the last moments, but the Eagles have enough to win this one by a Touchdown.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

New England Patriots + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Washington Commandeers - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2016 (November 24-28)

Thanksgiving Day is here and that means the NFL are going to provide three games for the viewers to go along with their turkey (at least for those in the United States).

Week 12 of the NFL season is about to get set to go and this is the point of the season when I do try and predict the Play Off teams as we start seeing the difference between the pretenders and the contenders.

I would be surprised if New England and Dallas don't hold the Number 1 Seeds in the two Conferences, although there isn't much room for mistakes as I see both Oakland and Seattle being able to push them all the way and eventually ending with the Number 2 Seeds in their respective Conferences.

At the moment I also see the NFC East and AFC West both sending three teams to the Play Offs with Denver and Kansas City joining Oakland and Philadelphia and Washington joining Dallas in the post-season.

Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Minnesota and Atlanta make up the remaining teams to make the Play Offs if I was to predict the rest of the season, but we all know the NFL is so fluid and changes week after week with upsets never far away.

Last week I felt a little sick to not come away with a winning week as I seemed to get little fortune on my side. Both Dallas and Detroit scored late Field Goals which saw them cover their numbers after I had backed Baltimore and Jacksonville who had been in winning positions going into the final two minutes of games.

You could even make an argument for Arizona being closer than the six point loss, but Green Bay were bad again as the picks went 3-4 but could easily have been 5-2 if they had finished in the manner they perhaps should have.

This week I am going to have my picks from the NFL Thanksgiving Day games out first and will add the Sunday and Monday picks in the next couple of days. Hopefully a positive Thursday can set me up for a big Week 12 to get back to winning ways.


Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: The first Thanksgiving Day game is hosted by the Detroit Lions and this might be one of the bigger ones they have played in years with the NFC North Division lead on the line when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. Both teams have 6-4 records and the Detroit Lions also have beaten the Minnesota Vikings which means this game might mean a lot more to the visitors who will effectively be two games behind the Lions if they are to be beaten on Thursday.

The first game was very close with Matt Prater forcing Overtime with a huge Field Goal before the Lions were able to prevail on the road. There looks to be little doubt that this will be another low-scoring game between these teams barring short fields thanks to Special Teams plays and turnovers.

There is a chance we will see big time Special Teams with both the Lions and Vikings using a big Punt Return and a Kick Return to win games respectively last week. However those elements can be very difficult to predict and instead you have to look at this game and look at how it is most likely to go down.

The Defensive units look to be the superior ones on the field at any time, but the Minnesota Vikings have not been as effective as earlier in the season. The first five opponents the Vikings faced didn't score more than 16 points, but the last five opponents have all scored at least 20 points which has to be a concern. On the other hand the Detroit Defense have given up 20 points or fewer to their last four opponents and so the chances of seeing a lot of scoring from this Thanksgiving Day game seems unlikely to say the least.

One of the issues the Vikings have had in recent weeks is slowing down the run, but that isn't exactly the strength of the Detroit Offense and so it hard to see how they take full advantage of that. Instead much looks like it will be down to Matt Stafford at Quarter Back who has had a decent season, but doesn't have the best set of Receivers now that Calvin Johnson is gone.

There is some criticism that Stafford used to be too obvious in going to Johnson at big moments, but he has shared the ball around a lot more and that hasn't always been helpful with some bad routes run and drops at critical times. Stafford could be under some pressure if dropping back from third and long spots, but he gets the ball out quickly and has avoided taking too many Sacks or turning the ball over.

Drives could bog down and Detroit could have to settle for Field Goals in this one, while the Punter should get plenty of work too.

The same could be said for Minnesota though who have really had a hard time of late and just about snapped a four game losing run last week. While the Defensive unit should be improved with players returning from injury, the continued absence of Adrian Peterson has resulted in the Vikings struggling to run the ball and it is not likely to change much this week.

It will mean Sam Bradford has to make plays through the air and he is likely to be without Stefon Diggs in this one. While Kyle Rudolph is a threat and Bradford did have a solid game against Detroit two weeks ago, Detroit have Ziggy Ansah back on the Defensive Line and might have more success getting to the Quarter Back than they did in Week 10 when taking down Bradford twice.

Like Stafford, Bradford has looked after the ball and that is going to be key in a game where points could come at a premium. Therefore it could once again come down to the kickers after Prater hit two from 50 plus yards in the first game earlier this month, while Blair Walsh missed an Extra Point and a Field Goal for Minnesota. Walsh has since been cut and Kai Forbath has been signed as a replacement.

I am not sure I trust Forbath more than Prater, but I do think the Vikings can make enough plays to win this one on the road. These teams are closely matched, but I do think Detroit are not quite as good as their record while they have a 4-8 record against the spread in recent Thanksgiving Day games. Minnesota are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Detroit and I think they might be on the right side of a close game this time.

I do think the Minnesota Defensive unit is getting healthier and they can make a few more big plays to stop Detroit than the other way around. I think the Lions are underrated on the Defensive side of the ball, but Bradford has been smart with the ball and I will take the points with the Minnesota Vikings.


Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The NFC East might be the best Division in the NFL or at least it would be arguing it out with the AFC West and two of the teams meet in a big Thanksgiving Day game. The Dallas Cowboys moved to 9-1 thanks to another win in Week 11 and remain on course to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but the Washington Redskins are not too far behind with their 6-3-1 record and another appearance in the Play Offs looks to be on course.

For now these teams will concentrate on their second Divisional meeting after a really good game in Week 2 that the Washington Redskins will feel they gave away. Since then they have had a number of injuries on the Defensive side of the ball as they try to slow down the two rookie sensations that have been leading the Cowboys to nine straight wins.

Not many teams have been able to slow down Ezekiel Elliot at Running Back and I don't really think the Redskins Defensive Line are going to have a lot of success in this one. While recent games might have shown improvement, Washington have played Cincinnati, Minnesota and Green Bay and none of those teams have an Offensive Line like the Dallas Cowboys. Instead you have to think Elliot is going to have a really big game for the Cowboys which should set up Dak Prescott to follow suit.

Dez Bryant might be shadowed by Josh Norman in this one, but there are plenty of holes in the Washington Secondary if Prescott sees the Washington pass rush slow down by the running game. I expect Bryant can win some of his battles with Norman, but the likes of Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten can see their fair share of big catches as well as Elliot leaking out of the backfield.

Dallas should be moving the chains with some consistency in this one, but the Redskins are going to be confident behind Kirk Cousins who has improved significantly from the start of the season. The doubters in the locker room after the loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home have been silenced and Cousins outplayed Aaron Rodgers in a home win in Week 11.

'Fat Rob' Kelley at Running Back has given Washington a real boost after the fumbles of Matt Jones and he is the kind of Back that will get a few yards after initial contact. I do like the way Dallas have played up front, but Kelley can have some big gains which can help Cousins who is good enough to make some big plays against a Cowboys Secondary that is dealing with injuries.

You do have to think the Dallas Defenders are going to be focused on shutting down Kelley after he called them the Cowgirls a couple of days ago, but the bigger challenge will come against Cousins at Quarter Back. Cousins has been well protected by his Offensive Line although the absence of Trent Williams is still an issue despite how well Ty Nsekhe has played at Left Tackle and Dallas will look to get near the Quarter Back and force him to throw the ball much quicker than he wants.

However getting time should mean Cousins is able to make some big throws to the likes of Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson although the last of those may not be available. I do think Cousins will have success but he will be under pressure to keep up with the Dallas Cowboys in a shoot out and having to play in the late game on Sunday Night Football in Week 11 going into this one looks a really tough spot for them.

There has to be some fatigue with even less time to travel and prepare for this game and that could be a big factor as the game wears on. Washington do have a very good record in Dallas in recent years, while playing on Thanksgiving Day has been tough for the Cowboys, but I think these trends will be reversed in Week 12. The Dallas Cowboys will look to wear down Washington with their Offensive Line and I can see them pulling away for a win by around ten-fourteen points in a high scoring shoot out.

Both teams should have success Offensively, but fatigue might mean Washington playing keep up and Cousins eventually making a mistake which allows Dallas an extra possession to cover this number.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: I have picked the Pittsburgh Steelers twice as a road favourite of more than a Touchdown twice this season and so far those picks have gone 1-1. The first lost when Ben Roethlisberger was virtually knocked out of the game at Miami, but the Steelers did cover as a big road favourite at the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in Week 11.

Now I am going to go back and look to break the tie in a positive way as I like the Pittsburgh Steelers to remain focused and win this game at the Indianapolis Colts. The Steelers are in the midst of a really tough AFC North Divisional race and Pittsburgh catch a break, and also face this big spread, because Andrew Luck has been ruled out for the hosts.

That's not what the television companies would have wanted to hear when obviously picking Roethlisberger versus Luck in the late Thanksgiving Day game, but the latter is in the concussion protocol after taking a heavy fall to the turf in the Week 11 win over Tennessee. It means Scott Tolzien will get the start at Quarter Back and it is a big test for the former Green Bay Packer on a short week and with the television cameras broadcasting this game to the entire United States.

The pressure will be on Tolzien as it is unlikely that Frank Gore and the running game is going to offer too much support on the ground. The Steelers have shown improvement up front with just 3.1 yards per game given up over their last three games despite going up against Ezekiel Elliot and the Dallas Cowboys during that time. Pittsburgh will likely force Tolzien to throw the ball by loading the line of scrimmage and daring Indianapolis to take advantage through the air.

With Andrew Luck under Center the Colts would have been able to make some big plays through the air, but it will be much tougher for Tolzien who was average when having to start in place of Aaron Rodgers for the Green Bay Packers. This Offensive Line doesn't offer the same level of protection and Pittsburgh could be in the Quarter Back's face a lot in this one which can lead to mistakes although the Secondary have had some problems to suggest Tolzien makes some plays.

He will need to do that because this looks a really nice match up for Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers even though they are dealing with some issues at the Wide Receiver position. Importantly none of those issues involve Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell and Big Ben is going to be throwing into a Secondary missing some key players which makes it tough to slow down this passing Offense. Ladarius Green gives Roethlisberger another big weapon in the End Zone and Bell is also off a big running performance and can keep the yards churning on the ground.

Barring drops or Roethlisberger having one of his worst games of his career, I can only see the Steelers being too strong for the Colts on a short week and with a back up Quarter Back. That might mean others bring their best to try and help Indianapolis, but they won't be able to run the ball as they want and I can't see the Colts keeping up with a potent Offense like the Steelers.

Pittsburgh have blown out Indianapolis in 2014 and 2015 as they hung 51 and then 45 points on them, but both games were played at home. The fast track in Indianapolis should suit Pittsburgh too though and I will look for them to record a big win on the road.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I still don't know how the Jacksonville Jaguars failed to cover in Week 11 in their loss to the Detroit Lions but missing out by a couple of points can be thanked on three moments. One was a Punt Return TD, another was a Interception returned for a TD and the third was giving up a Field Goal with less than 30 seconds to play in the game.

That loss has virtually eliminated their chances of making it to the Play Offs in what has become a very disappointing season for the Jaguars. They dropped to 2-8 when many tipped them up as a dark horse this season for the Play Offs and now the pressure is on Gus Bradley to show he is the right Head Coach to take this team forward into 2017.

They head to the Buffalo Bills this weekend who are coming off a big win at Cincinnati and very much in the Play Off race in the AFC. The Bills can't afford to overlook the Jaguars with some big games to come, but a loss would put Buffalo in a really difficult position and Rex Ryan has to be preaching that all week.

Injuries are an issue for the Bills who have LeSean McCoy banged up, although set to play in Week 12, while both Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins are big losses in the Receiving position. With Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back the Bills have been very much a run orientated Offense and he should combine with McCoy to give Jacksonville some problems, although the Jaguars Defensive unit is perhaps underrated. The Defensive Line has been very strong through the season and they could have success in at least slowing the huge gains that the Bills have been known to rip off on the ground.

The Offensive Line has also been much better when running the ball and protection for Taylor will break down with the pressure Jacksonville are able to get up front. That has helped an improving Secondary and the Jaguars can continue to show the improvement Defensively to keep this one close. But then it all comes down to whether the Offense can provide a spark if the Jaguars are going to win this game.

Blake Bortles has regressed significantly at Quarter Back and has been guilty of the back breaking turnovers which have cost the Jaguars in recent games. He is actually a doubt for this game, but I don't think the move to Chad Henne will hurt as much as it would have in the 2015 season if Bortles can't go.

It hasn't all been on Bortles because the Jaguars have been made to look a little one-dimensional of late with issues running the ball. They won't have much success to do that against the Bills this week whose Defensive Line have been bolstered by Marcel Dareus although the Buffalo Secondary have given up some big plays.

A fierce pass rush is a problem for whoever plays at Quarter Back but I do think the Jaguars can make this a competitive game and getting more than a Touchdown worth of points looks huge. With the Bills having Oakland and Pittsburgh next up on deck, there is every chance they are a little lacklustre against a 2-8 Jaguars team whose underrated Defensive unit can prevent Buffalo from running away with it.

That is as long as Jacksonville avoid the turnovers which have killed them in recent games and play the Special Teams better than they did last week in Detroit. Those are the 'x factors' in games that are hard to predict, but this does look a lot of points for the road team to be given in this one and I will back the Jaguars in this game.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Marvin Lewis has had a successful time as Head Coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, but failing to make the Play Offs might put him on the hot seat at the end of the season. The Bengals are 2.5 games out of the AFC North lead, but a loss to the Baltimore Ravens will really put them behind the black ball and injuries have contributed to a difficult season for them.

It hasn't been that much easier for Baltimore who were beaten in Dallas last week which means they have dropped five of their last seven games. However they are 3-0 in the AFC North Divisional games and a win would move the Ravens to 6-5 for the season and once again give them the lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers thanks to a head to head win over them.

The Ravens have been inconsistent Offensively which has slowed down their win rate in recent weeks but they could find some encouragement against this Cincinnati Defensive unit. Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon have not separated themselves as the main Running Back, but both could have solid games against this Bengals Defensive Line which has struggled in recent weeks with some signs in recent games that Baltimore are getting the run going effectively.

That is so important to keep things open for Joe Flacco who has begun to take a few more shots down the field since Marc Trestman was fired as Offensive Co-Ordinator. Flacco has been protected by the Offensive Line and the Bengals pass rush has not been as strong as in recent seasons, while their Receivers can find separation against a Secondary that hasn't been able to replace Reggie Nelson and whose Corner Backs look to have lost a step in coverage.

It should mean the pressure is on Cincinnati and Andy Dalton to stay with the Ravens and that is not going to be easy with both Giovani Bernard and AJ Green on the sidelines. The loss of Green should have a huge impact in this game for Dalton, although he does have Tyler Eifert who is a big time Receiver from Tight End. However playing against this Baltimore Defensive unit is not easy with a fully healthy Offense and it could be a long day for Dalton.

There won't be a lot of support from Jeremy Hill running the ball after Baltimore showed they could compete with the vaunted Dallas Offensive Line and that will put the pressure on Dalton. He has had a hard time behind the Offensive Line which has not protected him well and Baltimore should get some pressure on Dalton which can lead to mistakes without the go-to Receiver in Green.

Baltimore have not been that consistent this season, but they can snap their five game losing run to the Bengals in this one. They look to have enough of an edge on both sides of the ball as they take advantage of the injuries in the Cincinnati team and I think the Ravens can come away with a win by around seven to ten points.


Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Bruce Arians has returned from hospital having been taken there last weekend and he has been back Coaching up the Arizona Cardinals who have fallen far short of expectations. A loss to the Minnesota Vikings has put the Cardinals in a desperate spot and anything other than going 5-1 in their final six games might mean missing out on the Play Offs.

Games against the likes of the Atlanta Falcons could have huge Play Off implications for the Cardinals going forward and they can't afford to lose this game with potential tiebreakers in play in January. It won't be easy against an Atlanta team that have likely been steaming for two weeks since losing to the Philadelphia Eagles and trying to keep their rivals in the NFC South in arms distance.

The Arizona Defensive unit have performed to the kind of level expected and it was Special Teams and turnovers which cost them in Minnesota last weekend. One concern has to be that Patrick Peterson might be missing this weekend as the cover Corner who would have been assigned Julio Jones, a big time Receiver who has had two weeks to get back to better health.

Tevin Coleman is also back for the Falcons at Running Back to give them a one-two punch with DeVonta Freeman, but the Arizona Defensive Line have been stout for much of the season. However both players give Matt Ryan another Receiving option when they leak out of the backfield and I can see them having an impact in this game.

There has also been a decent pass rush established by the Cardinals and Matt Ryan has had to scramble around to make plays. He will have some more issues making plays into the Secondary which has performed well although the absence of Peterson would be a big blow for the Cardinals.

So this may come down to whether Carson Palmer can finally start showing that he is far from a faded force in the NFL at Quarter Back. He has been a big problem for the Cardinals this season and one of the big reasons they are at 4-5-1 going into Week 12 of the season. A vintage Palmer and any decent Quarter Back in the NFL would be very keen on the match up against this Atlanta Secondary which is missing Desmond Trufant although his availability for this game is questionable.

A problem for Palmer has been an Offensive Line hasn't been that good in protection and Atlanta have been able to get some pressure up front, but a bigger issue for the Quarter Back has been the bad throws that have led to Interceptions. This isn't a Secondary that has made too many big plays through the season though and I do think Palmer can bounce back from a really poor performance at Minnesota where he virtually cost the Cardinals the win.

He will be helped by the fact that David Johnson should find better running lanes in this one and could churn out some yards on the ground to keep the Offense in third and short which will help. Johnson is one of the best Backs in the NFL, and he can also be dangerous as a Receiver out of the backfield and I do think the Cardinals can keep this one close.

They are getting a few more points than last week because of the Peterson status but they can move the chains in this one and the Falcons have been involved in plenty of close games this season. Only one of the last five Atlanta games has seen the Falcons win by more than six points and I will look for Palmer to have one of his better games this season and help the Cardinals keep up with the Falcons in a shoot out.


New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The New York Giants go into Week 12 with the Number 5 Seed in the NFC and they can't afford to drop a silly game against the winless Cleveland Browns. The Giants have some really tough games to play the remainder of the 2016 season if they want to get into the Play Offs and that makes it even more important that they don't overlook the Browns who have lurched from disaster to disaster.

There are still some questions about the Giants and how good they actually are with some tough, grind it out victories. One of the problems for them has been the one-dimensional nature of the Offense as they have struggled to run the ball and the Giants won't have much of a chance to do that in this game either.

In recent games the Browns have been better on the Defensive Line and slowing down the run will mean Eli Manning has to drop back and make plays to a number of solid Receivers he has at his disposal. Manning should have the time to throw the ball as Cleveland have struggled to get to the Quarter Back and Manning has been willing to throw the ball quickly to Receivers running slants and capable of making plenty of yards after the catch.

With Joe Haden banged up at best, the Giants should be able to get the ball to the likes of Odell Beckham Jr to keep the chains moving and the New York Football Giants to score their points.

It will be up to Josh McCown at Quarter Back this weekend for the Cleveland Browns as their musical chairs approach to that position continues to frustrate the fans and the media. This is a difficult game for McCown to come into as he is going to have to make a lot of the plays himself with the difficulties that Cleveland have had in running the ball in recent games and facing a Giants Defensive Line that have been stout up front.

With the Offensive Line issues, McCown is going to have some real problems throwing the ball even if Jean Pierre-Paul is unable to suit up. They have been giving up too many Sacks as Receivers have struggled to get open, and the Giants can get close to McCown and look to take him down or force him to make mistakes. Landon Collins has been an Interception machine for Giants and it would be no surprise if he was to pick up another one as a poor Cleveland team self-destruct again.

This is a lot of points for the Giants to cover, but it is hard to see how Cleveland can keep up with them thanks to the Offensive problems they have been having in recent weeks. I can't imagine the Giants overlooking them with the games they have got coming up and I think the Browns have been a mess while they are going to be missing a key Corner Back, or at least have Haden limited, which will make it tough to stop the Giants.

I can only see the Giants taking control and pulling away in the second half for a comfortable road win and I will back them to cover the points.


San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: As a Miami Dolphins fan, the 1-4 start to the season has become too much of a familiar sight and not many would have predicted the kind of turnaround they have had since then. Adam Gase needs a lot of credit at Head Coach as the Dolphins have won every game since to move to 6-4 and very much in the Play Off mix in the AFC.

One concern has to be the injuries they have suffered on the Offensive Line which may see the Dolphins missing at least two of the five starters this week. That Offensive Line has been the reason Miami have started winning games as they have punched out some big holes for Jay Ajayi which has also meant huge gains for the Running Back and keeping Ryan Tannehill from making mistakes at Quarter Back.

Even a banged up Dolphins Offensive Line will feel they win the battle with the San Francisco Defensive Line who have been battered on the ground over the last few weeks. I fully think Ajayi has a solid outing in this one, while Tannehill has the Receivers who can make plays down the field when the Linebackers edge forward.

Eric Reid is the latest player to go down for the season for the 49ers and Miami can take advantage of a team that has to travel across the country to play an early start. That is never easy for any team and the 49ers could have a long day if their Defensive unit are not able to get off the field and have to stay out in the sun for extended time.

It won't go completely the Miami way as San Francisco have started some of their games effectively on the Offensive side of the ball. Colin Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde gives the 49ers a chance to at least run the ball although the Miami Defensive Line have been able to shut down better Offensive Lines than the one they will face in Week 12.

Kaepernick also has a couple of targets in the passing game that could make the plays to keep the chains moving forward. However the Quarter Back can't hold the ball for too long with the pressure Miami have gotten up front thanks to the likes of Cameron Wake and it has felt like Kaepernick has been unable to put in a 60 minute game as teams adjust to what he is trying to do.

This is a big number for Miami who simply don't get asked to cover these spreads too often. In fact it has been at least three seasons that they have been favoured by at least seven points and that could play a part in the mindset even if the Dolphins can't afford too many more losses thanks to their poor start.

I still think Miami can do it though because they are facing a San Francisco team who haven't been able to keep up in games with Defensive problems. Injuries are hurting that unit too and I think Miami will wear them out with Jay Ajayi and they can pull away for a win by double digits like so many have done against the San Francisco 49ers.


Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The Seattle Seahawks are doing Seattle Seahawks things by getting hot in the final third of the NFL regular season which makes them a big danger in the Play Offs. The Seahawks are travelling across the country for this road game, but they haven't played badly in this spot previously and Seattle are fully focused as they look to chase down the Dallas Cowboys for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

They can't take anything for granted at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have won two in a row and that has seen them close on the Atlanta Falcons for the lead in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have been a little inconsistent though and they have not been as good at home which is a concern going forward, while Jameis Winston has not always shown his best when the top teams face him.

Winston is facing one of the best Defensive units in the NFL in Week 12, but one that is missing Earl Thomas at Safety. That is a blow to the Legion of Boom who have allowed some big numbers through the air, but some of that has been down to teams playing catch up and having to throw against them.

The Buccaneers can have some success moving the ball through the air with Cameron Brate and Mike Evans proving to be reliable targets for Winston. However the Quarter Back is likely to feel the pressure when he drops back to throw the ball and Seattle have been very strong at getting to the Quarter Back and taking him down even without Michael Bennett in the line up.

Slowing down the pass rush by running the ball effectively is not really possible for Tampa Bay in this game either and so it could be tough for the Buccaneers to consistently move the chains even though Thomas is out at Safety.

Moving the chains doesn't look like being as big a concern for the Seattle Seahawks with Russell Wilson back to full health at Quarter Back. His ankle issues look to be behind him and the Buccaneers are going to have some problems preventing Wilson having a big game with Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham capable of making the moves to break down the coverage as Wilson scrambles around the backfield.

Thomas Rawls is also back to give Seattle a better running game which should be able to get going against the Buccaneers who have allowed 4.5 yards per carry in recent games and might be more focused on stopping the pass. With Russell Wilson looking after the ball effectively too, it could be tough for Tampa Bay to stay with Seattle in a shoot out and I do like the road team to win this one.

The Buccaneers have had some problems at home in recent seasons and this game is kicking off at around 1pm West Coast time which should suit the road team. The public are backing Seattle but I can see the Seahawks being too good and making some big Defensive plays to come through with a ten point win on the road so I will back them to cover this number.


New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: The New England Patriots have made some big trades with players leaving the team and those don't look like they will be the ones that the Patriots will look back on with fondness. Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins have been moved out since the end of last season and the Patriots Defensive unit have had some problems this season.

Most will feel they can bounce back and blow out the New York Jets on the road in Week 12 and I am not surprised with the public pounding the Patriots. However I think this is going to be closer than most people think and want to back the Jets with more than a Touchdown start in this game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is not going to be the answer for the Jets at Quarter Back but he is back as the starter coming out of the bye week which hasn't impressed the local media. However Todd Bowles believes this Quarter Back gives the Jets the best chance of winning the game and I have to agree with him.

It won't be up to Fitzpatrick to win the game though as Matt Forte should have a great game running the ball against a New England team that have been struggling up front. Forte is also a pass catching threat out of the backfield and he can help keep the Jets in third and manageable spots where Fitzpatrick isn't asked to make too many risky throws that have blighted his career.

Running the ball should also be effective in slowing down the pass rush that the Patriots have been able to generate and Fitzpatrick does have Receivers like Brandon Marshall who can make the big catches to keep the chains moving. The Jets have not been that productive in recent games Offensively, but they can do better against the Patriots Defense especially coming out of a bye week.

On the other side of the ball it is going to be far from easy for the Patriots and Tom Brady to have the kind of Offensive production they are used to. The Jets Defensive Line is amongst the best in the NFL so you have to think this will come down to Brady's arm if the Patriots are going to win the game, but the Jets Secondary have also shown some improvement prior to the bye.

However you do have to believe Brady can have a solid outing even if Rob Gronkowski is limited and the Patriots can have some success. On the other hand this is the kind of game that the Jets look forward to more than any other and and I expect their team to come out firing out of a bye week and trying to at least ruin a rival's season.

The Defensive unit can keep this close immediately, but a clean game from Fitzpatrick should mean the Offensive unit can keep up with New England and make these points very important. Getting more than a Touchdown looks too appealing and I will back the home underdog in this spot.


I've added the pick from Monday Night Football below to close Week 12 of the NFL season.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants - 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 6 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Jets + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)