We are now getting down to the final weeks of the domestic season in European Football and that means we will get to see the Champions League and Europa League Finals set by the end of Thursday evening.
To be honest, the Champions League Final is basically already decided with Juventus and Real Madrid holding historically big leads in their Semi Final Second Legs and those two clubs could provide a real spectacle come June 3rd.
The Europa League Final is less secure despite the leads Ajax and Manchester United have from the First Leg as they are playing two dangerous opponents. That Final is set for the 24th May in Stockholm and looks to be the best chance for Manchester United to be playing Champions League Football next season.
One make up Premier League game is also set for this week before we get into the penultimate weekend of the domestic League season in the big European Leagues which begins on Friday.
Juventus v Monaco Pick: It was a pretty impressive performance from Juventus all around in their 0-2 win in Monaco last week and the expectation is that they will be too good when the teams meet for the Second Leg. This feels like a chance to salvage some pride for Monaco than a realistic bid to overturn the deficit from the First Leg as they are facing a team protecting an 18 game unbeaten run at home in the Champions League and who haven't been beaten at home in any competition since August 2015.
The young players of Monaco will be looking to display their talent with a lot more effectiveness than they showed last week and keep impressing teams around Europe. Last week they missed the clinical edge they have displayed over the last few months, but they did have some opportunities against a veteran Juventus defence.
Ultimately I can't see Monaco preventing Juventus from scoring at home and I do think the way Juventus played last week is going to be copied as they look to exploit Monaco on the counter attack. That will be more evident the longer the game goes on and Monaco begin to push more and more men forward and I would be concerned that their last couple of away defeats have both come while conceding five times in each.
I don't think Juventus will take too many risks though and will be happy to see the chances come when they do rather than actively pursuing those chances to win by a wide margin. They rely very much on making sure they are not going to offer Monaco too much encouragement and will be looking to keep the run of clean sheets going, although I am expecting Monaco to be a little more ruthless when the chances do come their way this time.
Last week I did think there would be three goals shared out by these teams and that only came up short thanks to some solid last ditch defending from Juventus. Things will likely open up at some point in this one again and this time I am looking for the teams to combine for at least one more strike in the Second Leg.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Pick: No team has ever come back from a two goal deficit after the First Leg to win a European Cup Semi Final and it would be a huge shock if Atletico Madrid are able to turn around their 3-0 loss to Real Madrid last week. Pride is still a big factor but I have to say I was largely disappointed with the attitude of the Atletico Madrid players in the defeat in the First Leg as they showed little to no belief of their chances of beating Real Madrid.
A lot will have had to changed for them to make this a much more competitive Second Leg, although I do think Atletico Madrid can't possibly play as badly as the First Leg. Maybe Atletico Madrid can relax and play with a 'nothing to lose' attitude, but it does feel they have to play a more open style than they are used to and that is where Real Madrid can take advantage of them.
Real Madrid will sit back and wait to hit Atletico Madrid on the counter and there will be a few occasions when they are able to exploit gaps left behind.
They have already won convincingly here once this season and Real Madrid were able to rest the majority of their big names for the League win at Granada at the weekend. That should mean they are capable of producing another strong performance and I think Real Madrid will have the opportunities to win the Second Leg unless Atletico Madrid are going to play this game without really believing they can move into the Final.
In that case Atletico Madrid might prove a stubborn nut to crack, but I have to think the home fans will urge their team to try and get forward and pressure their rivals in the Second Leg. That could see Real Madrid score a late goal to secure a win here and I think they can be backed at the prices even though they don't 'need' to win the game.
The price factors in the lack of a 'need' for Real Madrid and I think that makes it attractive enough to back the defending Champions League Winners to win the Second Leg.
Lyon v Ajax Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Lyon to put themselves into a position to turn around the First Leg deficit with this being the only avenue back into the Champions League for them. If this was closer, Lyon would feel very confident at home, but the pressure of overturning a three goal deficit is much harder to judge.
No one will dispute Ajax are not the same force on their travels as they have tended to be at home, while a young team are not as experienced as some of those Lyon can count upon. However they have shown they can express themselves away from Amsterdam and the feeling is that Ajax do have enough to score here especially if Lyon defend as poorly as they did in the First Leg.
On the other hand, Ajax have conceded at least twice in half of their 8 away European games this season including in the last two Rounds at Copenhagen and Schalke. That will encourage Lyon to get forward considering they have scored at least three times in half of their 6 home European games and perhaps there will be some life in this tie.
The first goal is going to be key and I can see this being another open Semi Final tie like the one in Amsterdam was. I did consider backing Lyon to win a high-scoring game, but I think there is enough here to believe Ajax can cause some problems especially on the counter when Lyon get desperate and they could score some goals when exploiting gaps left behind.
I would be really surprised if both teams don't score here and I can see them coming close to match the goal output of last week, but will simply look for the two teams to combine for at least four goals on Thursday.
Manchester United v Celta Vigo Pick: The remaining games in the Premier League are no longer the concern for Jose Mourinho and Manchester United with their best chance of getting into the Champions League coming by winning the Europa League. It was clear from the team picked against Arsenal that Manchester United have had an eye on this Second Leg and that should mean fatigue is not really a ready made excuse.
Manchester United played really well in Spain for large portions of that First Leg and only some poor finishing prevented them from returning to Manchester with one foot in the Europa League Final. Now there is still some pressure on the favourites as a Celta Vigo goal would level up the tie instead of having some margin of comfort, but the chances created in Spain has to encourage Mourinho.
A line up with the likes of Antonio Valencia, Eric Bailly and Paul Pogba all with a week of rest under their legs is likely to be too good for Celta Vigo. It has been difficult for Celta Vigo to turn the switch on and off for Europa League games when they have not been taking their League games seriously and they did look a little out of their depth last week.
This is a team that still needs to be respected having won at Real Madrid while knocking them out of the Copa Del Rey and Celta Vigo also overcame a 0-1 First Leg loss at home to beat Shakhtar Donetsk in the Europa League. They will feel they can create chances, but their one away loss in the Europa League at Ajax saw Celta Vigo outplayed.
The 3-2 scoreline flatters them on that day and I think Manchester United will have the better of the chances and just have to show more clinical finishing in front of goal. They had enough to win easily in Spain and Manchester United have been better in the Europa League with the starting eleven likely to feel rested and ready to go in this one.
It is not always in Mourinho's nature to take unnecessary risks so you can see Manchester United perhaps sitting back a little if they do take the lead in the Second Leg. However I think Manchester United will have enough chances to hit Celta Vigo on the counter attack in this one to create more opportunities in front of goal and I think they move into the Europa League Final with an impressive Second Leg win.
Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Both Southampton and Arsenal are not exactly firing in their best form at the moment despite the positive results both achieved on Sunday in the Premier League. I have to say that there are some big questions for both teams to answer going into this Wednesday Premier League game, but regardless I am stunned by Arsenal being a short favourite to win at St Mary's.
Yes Arsenal beat a distracted Manchester United 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium to get their top four ambitions back on track, thanks partly to Southampton earning a goalless draw at Liverpool earlier in the day. However they have been very poor away from home in recent weeks and 5 losses from their last 6 Premier League away games is not going to encourage anybody to back a team at just over odds against.
The problem is Southampton have looked really poor in recent games as the season winds down for them and they have not won any of their last 4 League games. Both Manchester City and Chelsea hammered Southampton, while they have not scored in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games.
Defensively they have looked good enough in the last couple of games, but they will be tested by Arsenal. On the other hand, a more positive approach from Southampton is likely to give them every chance in this one against an Arsenal team who have been beaten at the likes of West Brom and Crystal Palace in recent Premier League games and were rocking at Middlesbrough.
Prior to the FA Cup loss to Arsenal in January, Southampton have had a strong recent home record against The Gunners. I don't think Arsenal are as good as the oddsmakers clearly believe they are and even a demotivated Southampton team can raise their game for the visit on Wednesday.
Fatigue could be a factor for both teams, but I am going to take Southampton with the start on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat.
MY PICKS: Juventus-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Real Madrid @ 2.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Showing posts with label May 9-11. Show all posts
Showing posts with label May 9-11. Show all posts
Tuesday, 9 May 2017
Saturday, 9 May 2015
Weekend Football Picks 2015 (May 9-11)
This is the weekend where we are likely to see at least two teams relegated from the Premier League and the battle to avoid the final relegation place really heat up.
The same can be said of the battle for the top four as Manchester United hope to hold off Liverpool with both teams facing tough trips to London over the weekend.
Everton v Sunderland Pick: When you are battling to avoid relegation, it doesn't matter how 'hard' and 'difficult' the fixtures you have remaining as you have to find the points where you can. That is the case for Sunderland who had a vital win over Southampton at home last weekend, but still have to face trips to Arsenal and Chelsea to complete the season.
Those two trips to London may mean that Sunderland have to find the points in their next two games at Everton and at home against Leicester City if they are to avoid finishing in the bottom three, but the win last week gives them every chance to do that.
Sunderland get the chance to put the pressure on their relegation rivals by beating Everton in the early kick off as the three points would move them all the way up to 14th in the Premier League table from their current position of 18th. However, it is going to be far from easy for Sunderland to get anything from this game considering they haven't won any of their last 8 away games in the Premier League and have lost half of those games.
Add in the fact that Everton have been much improved in recent weeks and still looking for a top half of the table finish from the end of this season. The 3-2 loss at Aston Villa last weekend was disappointing, but Everton have started scoring more goals and I do wonder if Sunderland can match that attacking output.
Everton have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions and have kept clean sheets in their last 4 games at Goodison Park and I think they will be a little too good for Sunderland and really keep the pressure on the Black Cats at the bottom of the table.
Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: You have to say that Tim Sherwood arrived at Villa Park in the nick of time as he has improved the fortunes of Aston Villa considerably since taking over from Paul Lambert. However, for all the improving performances and results, Aston Villa have not been able to shake off the teams below them and are still very much in a relegation dogfight with three games left to play.
A win on Saturday would go a long way to relieving the tension that might still exist in the Aston Villa squad, even if they have shown little of that in recent games. The performances against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Manchester City and Everton have shown a belief that Aston Villa can really hang onto going into the final weeks of the season as they bid to avoid the drop.
Sherwood's arrival has sparked Christian Benteke in front of goal and Aston Villa are no longer the shy goalscorers of the Paul Lambert era. In fact they have scored at least three times in their last couple of Premier League games at Villa Park, although Aston Vila have needed all of those goals to earn their points.
Despite the improvement up front, Aston Villa have looked vulnerable defensively and West Ham United should be able to test that, even if they have been poor away from home through the 2015 calendar year. The players have looked like they know Sam Allardyce might not be here in the new season and have played with that in mind and the season can't come to an end quick enough for many of them.
Those uncertain performances should give Aston Villa the edge in the game, but I am not happy backing a team at odds on when they are as vulnerable at the back as the home team are. Can West Ham United take advantage? That is the big question, but if they come here with any kind of motivation I can see them scoring at least once and so backing there being at least three goals shared looks the call.
Aston Villa have scored plenty, but conceded plenty too in recent weeks and goals could be the order of the day.
Hull City v Burnley Pick: It is only a matter of time before Burnley are officially relegated back to the Championship, but they haven't disgraced themselves this season and simply found the level too high in the Premier League. Unlike Queens Park Rangers and Charlie Austin, Burnley didn't find a player to score regularly in the Premier League despite the attention Danny Ings seems to be receiving from some of the top clubs in England.
That is the problem that Burnley have had all season and failing to score in any of their last 6 Premier League games is the reason they have been essentially relegated with three games to play.
Sean Dyche is unlikely to have his team feeling sorry for themselves and they can play spoiler for Hull City this weekend as a win at the KC Stadium will put the home team in an awful spot to avoid the drop. Burnley have won on their last 4 visits to Hull City, but Steve Bruce has to feel his team have been playing well enough to find one or two goals which could be enough to earn the three points.
Hull City need them.
Failing to win here would give Sunderland a real chance to overtake Hull City in the final weeks of the season and put the pressure on Hull to find a win over either Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United to close the year. That alone means Hull City should be feeling a lot more pressure than Burnley, who have nothing to lose at this stage of the season, and might play a large part in this match.
However, I think the lack of goals that Burnley have been scoring is a real issue and Hull City defend well enough to earn a clean sheet. For all the hard work Burnley do, you can create chances against them and I think Hull City will find a goal or two at home to earn the three points.
Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: If you go back three weeks, Manchester United looked a certainty to finish in the top four of the Premier League, but all the excitement of a six game winning run in the Premier League has been replaced by some nervousness. In all honesty, Manchester United should be grateful for some of the slips Liverpool have had in recent weeks or they might already be behind the black ball for a top four place.
The four point lead over Liverpool should be enough with three games to go, but a defeat at Selhurst Park would really put the cat amongst the pigeons for Louis Van Gaal and his side. Despite the poor form that Crystal Palace have displayed, there is little doubt the fans are going to create a great atmosphere to inspire the home team and the likes of Wilfried Zaha will be playing with something to prove.
It is Zaha and Yannick Bolasie who could pose major threats for Crystal Palace as Manchester United have been undone by the counter attack by Chelsea and Everton in their recent away games. Both of those players are blessed with pace and power and they will be very difficult to stop if Manchester United can't transition better than they have in recent games.
On the other hand, I am expecting better from Manchester United going forward than they have produced in recent games. Chances have come for Manchester United, but they have been poor in front of goal, while teams have figured out how to deal with Marouane Fellaini in the current system that Van Gaal has been employing which proved so effective against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester City.
I expect Van Gaal to make slight tweaks to what his side will do on Saturday, but dealing with the counter attack that Crystal Palace have will be far from easy. Manchester United have also looked a little vulnerable when it comes to set pieces and I think this could be quite an entertaining game with both teams going forward to win.
The layers don't fancy seeing many goals, but I do think both will score and neither is likely to settle for a share of the spoils too early. It is a far more appealing price than backing Manchester United at odds on in a difficult stadium and I do think goals will come.
Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: It was virtually twelve months ago when Chelsea looked to have travelled to Anfield with 'nothing to play for' as they were already out of the title race and had a big Champions League Semi Final to come just days later. However, that infuriated Jose Mourinho in the build up that so many had expected his Chelsea to roll over for Liverpool, who were very much in pole position to win the Premier League, and the master tactician oversaw a 0-2 victory.
There isn't a lot for Chelsea to play for this time around either as they have clinched the Premier League title and Liverpool are still fighting for a Champions League spot. Again, don't expect Mourinho to allow his players to coast and I am sure he is reminding them that there is no guarantee of a place in his squad for slackers next season as Chelsea try to build a team that is capable of challenging for the Champions League too.
This game is also being played at Stamford Bridge and the fans will be expecting their side to give Liverpool all they can handle with no love lost between the players nor the fans. Chelsea have been so strong at home all season that they won't want to lose a game in the League now and I think they will come out with something to prove.
Chelsea are also going against a Liverpool team that has struggled in recent weeks to really impose themselves on games and who have looked a little toothless in the final third without Daniel Sturridge. It is going to be a big summer for Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers as the fans are already getting on the manager a little bit having overachieved so much twelve months ago.
Getting into the Champions League would be a huge achievement considering the start Liverpool made to the current campaign, but recent away performances at West Brom and Hull City might have ended any realistic chance of doing that. Liverpool will still play some pretty, passing football, but it will be hard to break down Chelsea and their defence is still a little vulnerable to the speed that Chelsea possess.
I can see this being a close fought game with not a lot between the teams, but Chelsea have found a way to win games they haven't been at their absolute best and they look a big price at odds against to beat Liverpool on Sunday.
Arsenal v Swansea Pick: The freedom that comes for Swansea knowing they are playing well enough to surpass all expectations this season has seen them continue to pick up results despite losing their talismanic forward Wilfried Bony in January. Not many people outside of their dressing room would have thought Swansea could be in the mix for a late Europa League spot, but that is where they find themselves heading to the Emirates Stadium.
Unfortunately for Swansea, they are going up against an Arsenal team with a lot of goals to achieve in the last month of the season including finishing in their highest League position for over a decade and winning silverware in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2005.
Arsenal have really been playing very well over the last couple of months, while they have been particularly impressive at home in the Premier League. Before the game against Chelsea, which saw Jose Mourinho stifle Arsene Wenger's tactics again, Arsenal had won 8 straight Premier League games at home and had been scoring at a very high rate.
They should be able to get on the front foot in this game too and I think it will be difficult for Swansea to contain them, especially as they have been a little loose defensively in recent games. Even a 2-3 win at Newcastle United would raise some questions about them at the back because Newcastle have barely looked like scoring against me with ten of my friends joining me for a kick about.
The way Arsenal have been playing, it isn't hard to envision them scoring at least twice here and that might be enough for them to cover the Asian Handicap and win this game by a couple of goals. Swansea have a style that does make life difficult for Arsenal as they can control possession, and have pace in wide areas, but I think Arsenal will out-gun them in this one and I will back them to win by two or more goals.
MY PICKS: Everton @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aston Villa-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Hull City @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
May Update: 5-3, + 6.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 37.75% Yield)
April Final: 18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
The same can be said of the battle for the top four as Manchester United hope to hold off Liverpool with both teams facing tough trips to London over the weekend.
Everton v Sunderland Pick: When you are battling to avoid relegation, it doesn't matter how 'hard' and 'difficult' the fixtures you have remaining as you have to find the points where you can. That is the case for Sunderland who had a vital win over Southampton at home last weekend, but still have to face trips to Arsenal and Chelsea to complete the season.
Those two trips to London may mean that Sunderland have to find the points in their next two games at Everton and at home against Leicester City if they are to avoid finishing in the bottom three, but the win last week gives them every chance to do that.
Sunderland get the chance to put the pressure on their relegation rivals by beating Everton in the early kick off as the three points would move them all the way up to 14th in the Premier League table from their current position of 18th. However, it is going to be far from easy for Sunderland to get anything from this game considering they haven't won any of their last 8 away games in the Premier League and have lost half of those games.
Add in the fact that Everton have been much improved in recent weeks and still looking for a top half of the table finish from the end of this season. The 3-2 loss at Aston Villa last weekend was disappointing, but Everton have started scoring more goals and I do wonder if Sunderland can match that attacking output.
Everton have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions and have kept clean sheets in their last 4 games at Goodison Park and I think they will be a little too good for Sunderland and really keep the pressure on the Black Cats at the bottom of the table.
Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: You have to say that Tim Sherwood arrived at Villa Park in the nick of time as he has improved the fortunes of Aston Villa considerably since taking over from Paul Lambert. However, for all the improving performances and results, Aston Villa have not been able to shake off the teams below them and are still very much in a relegation dogfight with three games left to play.
A win on Saturday would go a long way to relieving the tension that might still exist in the Aston Villa squad, even if they have shown little of that in recent games. The performances against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Manchester City and Everton have shown a belief that Aston Villa can really hang onto going into the final weeks of the season as they bid to avoid the drop.
Sherwood's arrival has sparked Christian Benteke in front of goal and Aston Villa are no longer the shy goalscorers of the Paul Lambert era. In fact they have scored at least three times in their last couple of Premier League games at Villa Park, although Aston Vila have needed all of those goals to earn their points.
Despite the improvement up front, Aston Villa have looked vulnerable defensively and West Ham United should be able to test that, even if they have been poor away from home through the 2015 calendar year. The players have looked like they know Sam Allardyce might not be here in the new season and have played with that in mind and the season can't come to an end quick enough for many of them.
Those uncertain performances should give Aston Villa the edge in the game, but I am not happy backing a team at odds on when they are as vulnerable at the back as the home team are. Can West Ham United take advantage? That is the big question, but if they come here with any kind of motivation I can see them scoring at least once and so backing there being at least three goals shared looks the call.
Aston Villa have scored plenty, but conceded plenty too in recent weeks and goals could be the order of the day.
Hull City v Burnley Pick: It is only a matter of time before Burnley are officially relegated back to the Championship, but they haven't disgraced themselves this season and simply found the level too high in the Premier League. Unlike Queens Park Rangers and Charlie Austin, Burnley didn't find a player to score regularly in the Premier League despite the attention Danny Ings seems to be receiving from some of the top clubs in England.
That is the problem that Burnley have had all season and failing to score in any of their last 6 Premier League games is the reason they have been essentially relegated with three games to play.
Sean Dyche is unlikely to have his team feeling sorry for themselves and they can play spoiler for Hull City this weekend as a win at the KC Stadium will put the home team in an awful spot to avoid the drop. Burnley have won on their last 4 visits to Hull City, but Steve Bruce has to feel his team have been playing well enough to find one or two goals which could be enough to earn the three points.
Hull City need them.
Failing to win here would give Sunderland a real chance to overtake Hull City in the final weeks of the season and put the pressure on Hull to find a win over either Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United to close the year. That alone means Hull City should be feeling a lot more pressure than Burnley, who have nothing to lose at this stage of the season, and might play a large part in this match.
However, I think the lack of goals that Burnley have been scoring is a real issue and Hull City defend well enough to earn a clean sheet. For all the hard work Burnley do, you can create chances against them and I think Hull City will find a goal or two at home to earn the three points.
Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: If you go back three weeks, Manchester United looked a certainty to finish in the top four of the Premier League, but all the excitement of a six game winning run in the Premier League has been replaced by some nervousness. In all honesty, Manchester United should be grateful for some of the slips Liverpool have had in recent weeks or they might already be behind the black ball for a top four place.
The four point lead over Liverpool should be enough with three games to go, but a defeat at Selhurst Park would really put the cat amongst the pigeons for Louis Van Gaal and his side. Despite the poor form that Crystal Palace have displayed, there is little doubt the fans are going to create a great atmosphere to inspire the home team and the likes of Wilfried Zaha will be playing with something to prove.
It is Zaha and Yannick Bolasie who could pose major threats for Crystal Palace as Manchester United have been undone by the counter attack by Chelsea and Everton in their recent away games. Both of those players are blessed with pace and power and they will be very difficult to stop if Manchester United can't transition better than they have in recent games.
On the other hand, I am expecting better from Manchester United going forward than they have produced in recent games. Chances have come for Manchester United, but they have been poor in front of goal, while teams have figured out how to deal with Marouane Fellaini in the current system that Van Gaal has been employing which proved so effective against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester City.
I expect Van Gaal to make slight tweaks to what his side will do on Saturday, but dealing with the counter attack that Crystal Palace have will be far from easy. Manchester United have also looked a little vulnerable when it comes to set pieces and I think this could be quite an entertaining game with both teams going forward to win.
The layers don't fancy seeing many goals, but I do think both will score and neither is likely to settle for a share of the spoils too early. It is a far more appealing price than backing Manchester United at odds on in a difficult stadium and I do think goals will come.
Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: It was virtually twelve months ago when Chelsea looked to have travelled to Anfield with 'nothing to play for' as they were already out of the title race and had a big Champions League Semi Final to come just days later. However, that infuriated Jose Mourinho in the build up that so many had expected his Chelsea to roll over for Liverpool, who were very much in pole position to win the Premier League, and the master tactician oversaw a 0-2 victory.
There isn't a lot for Chelsea to play for this time around either as they have clinched the Premier League title and Liverpool are still fighting for a Champions League spot. Again, don't expect Mourinho to allow his players to coast and I am sure he is reminding them that there is no guarantee of a place in his squad for slackers next season as Chelsea try to build a team that is capable of challenging for the Champions League too.
This game is also being played at Stamford Bridge and the fans will be expecting their side to give Liverpool all they can handle with no love lost between the players nor the fans. Chelsea have been so strong at home all season that they won't want to lose a game in the League now and I think they will come out with something to prove.
Chelsea are also going against a Liverpool team that has struggled in recent weeks to really impose themselves on games and who have looked a little toothless in the final third without Daniel Sturridge. It is going to be a big summer for Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers as the fans are already getting on the manager a little bit having overachieved so much twelve months ago.
Getting into the Champions League would be a huge achievement considering the start Liverpool made to the current campaign, but recent away performances at West Brom and Hull City might have ended any realistic chance of doing that. Liverpool will still play some pretty, passing football, but it will be hard to break down Chelsea and their defence is still a little vulnerable to the speed that Chelsea possess.
I can see this being a close fought game with not a lot between the teams, but Chelsea have found a way to win games they haven't been at their absolute best and they look a big price at odds against to beat Liverpool on Sunday.
Arsenal v Swansea Pick: The freedom that comes for Swansea knowing they are playing well enough to surpass all expectations this season has seen them continue to pick up results despite losing their talismanic forward Wilfried Bony in January. Not many people outside of their dressing room would have thought Swansea could be in the mix for a late Europa League spot, but that is where they find themselves heading to the Emirates Stadium.
Unfortunately for Swansea, they are going up against an Arsenal team with a lot of goals to achieve in the last month of the season including finishing in their highest League position for over a decade and winning silverware in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2005.
Arsenal have really been playing very well over the last couple of months, while they have been particularly impressive at home in the Premier League. Before the game against Chelsea, which saw Jose Mourinho stifle Arsene Wenger's tactics again, Arsenal had won 8 straight Premier League games at home and had been scoring at a very high rate.
They should be able to get on the front foot in this game too and I think it will be difficult for Swansea to contain them, especially as they have been a little loose defensively in recent games. Even a 2-3 win at Newcastle United would raise some questions about them at the back because Newcastle have barely looked like scoring against me with ten of my friends joining me for a kick about.
The way Arsenal have been playing, it isn't hard to envision them scoring at least twice here and that might be enough for them to cover the Asian Handicap and win this game by a couple of goals. Swansea have a style that does make life difficult for Arsenal as they can control possession, and have pace in wide areas, but I think Arsenal will out-gun them in this one and I will back them to win by two or more goals.
MY PICKS: Everton @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aston Villa-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Hull City @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
May Update: 5-3, + 6.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 37.75% Yield)
April Final: 18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)