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Showing posts with label March 17-19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label March 17-19. Show all posts

Friday, 17 March 2017

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (March 17-19)

The Champions League and Europa League Quarter Final line up was set up this past week and the ties drawn out have generated some real excitement in both competitions.

Those games in April certainly give us something to look forward to, while being a Manchester United fan means I am very happy with the Quarter Final tie against Anderlecht which looks a winnable one on paper.

This weekend is the final round of top domestic football before the international break which leads us into the final stretch of the season. A chance to have a final breath before the big run in is an opportunity for players to recover some of their physical well being and others to just have a chance to recharge their batteries for the big games ahead.

Most games in April and May will have some real repercussions as to whether this is a successful season or not for every team competing and the big games come thick and fast.


West Brom v Arsenal Pick: The opening game of this latest round of Premier League fixtures is a big one for both West Brom and Arsenal with the television cameras heading to The Hawthorns to capture the action.

West Brom might be safe from the drop, but Tony Pulis won’t want the players to coast to the end of the season and the back to back losses will have annoyed him. There shouldn’t be the need to provide a lot of motivation to get up for the challenge of Arsenal coming to town and the fans will certainly want their team to make it tough for the visitors.

It has been tough for West Brom hosting the top seven teams and they have lost 3 and drawn 1 of those games so far this season with three teams yet to visit. That will give some confidence in backing Arsenal to win here, but the Arsenal defence will give West Brom some encouragement and I think the home team will cause problems.

On the other hand Arsenal have the quality going forward to score the goals to win this game as long as the players are on the same page. Alexis Sanchez doesn’t look that happy at the moment and that makes it dangerous to back The Gunners at a ground where West Brom have played well this season.

It feels like both teams will have their opportunities in the game and I feel we will see at least three goals shared out between them. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams score in this one, but ultimately I think Arsenal might produce a narrow win on the day.


Crystal Palace v Watford Pick: The three points on offer for Crystal Palace and Watford are absolutely important for both of these clubs competing at Selhurst Park on Saturday and I am anticipating a close game between them. Both teams have had a couple of weeks to prepare for the game as their opponents were in FA Cup action last weekend, and you would expect a decent game plan has been put together by both managers.

Being at home hasn't really been a great benefit for Crystal Palace over the last twelve months and that hasn't improved under Sam Allardyce. However they did snap a 5 game League losing run here with their 1-0 win over Middlesbrough and this one is likely to be as tight and nervous as that win was.

There is plenty of quality in the Crystal Palace squad which has made it surprising it has taken Allardyce as long as it has to get a tune out of them. Wins in back to back games suggest that is changing and Crystal Palace have to make it three wins in a row to boost their survival bid when you consider some of the teams they have yet to play.

You can expect a surprise result or two, but Allardyce will have circled games like this one as 'must win' games for Crystal Palace.

Watford can be dangerous, but they are not as good on their travels as they are at home and they have been conceding plenty of goals of late. They have to be respected as they've earned some solid away points at Middlesbrough, Swansea City and Bournemouth this season, but a recent defeat at Sunderland shows what an erratic side they can be.

I am anticipating this to be a tight game with little between them, but Crystal Palace may just have the momentum to go on and earn the three points on offer this weekend and take another step towards maintaining their place in the Premier League. It will also keep Watford looking over their shoulders over the next two weeks before big home games against Sunderland and West Brom potentially define their season.


Everton v Hull City Pick: The big story is about Romelu Lukaku, but you have to think the Everton fans are going to be doing their best to remind their striker why Goodison Park is the best place for him. As long as the rest of the players haven't been distracted by the story, Everton look in a good place to secure another three points at Goodison Park and move into 6th place in the Premier League table, even if it may only be for twenty-four hours.

Recent form here has been very impressive from Everton who have won their last 5 League games at home and have scored at least twice in each of those games. Take away the goals conceded in the 6-3 win over Bournemouth and Everton have kept 4 cleans sheets in those wins which does put the pressure on Hull City.

The Tigers earned a vital three points in their win over Swansea City last weekend, which has kept them in touch with the teams above them in the League table, but Hull City have a miserable away record. They have lost 11 of their last 12 away games in all competitions and Hull City have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 7.

They did earn a 1-1 draw at Goodison Park two seasons ago and Marco Silva has got them pulling in the same direction, but Hull City will need to ride their luck to earn a result here. Everton are scoring too many goals and not conceding a lot of goals and they look like they can keep the momentum going at Goodison Park as we reach the international break.

I will be looking for Everton to make it 6 in a row at home and cover the Asian Handicap in this game as the previous 5 wins have all come by at least two goals.


Stoke City v Chelsea Pick: At first glance it seems like Chelsea are plenty short to win this game at Stoke City who have been an improving team at home during the course of the season. They have been beaten 3 times at home, but Stoke City suffered 2 of those losses before the end of September and they showed against Manchester City that they won't be intimidated by the best teams in this Division.

It is hard to oppose Chelsea considering how well they have been playing through the course of the season and their win at West Ham United was an impressive result. I did consider backing Stoke City on the Asian Handicap to earn some kind of result here, but the layers are giving the home team enough respect to make that an unappealing price.

Stoke City showed at Stamford Bridge that they know how they can potentially rattle Chelsea and this is a team that plays some good football which should challenge the League leaders. At the other end the likes of Eden Hazard and Diego Costa can always find their way to goal and I do think there is every chance this could be an entertaining game on Saturday.

More entertaining than the layers think who are offering up at least three goals to be shared out at odds against and I believe that might be too big a price. Both teams have scored in the last 3 away Chelsea games in the Premier League and Stoke City have scored and conceded when hosting Manchester City, Manchester United and Everton already this season.

I do think Stoke City will look to win the game too and that should mean there is a chance of some open play that leads to chances being created. At the end of the fixture I am looking for one of the teams to have enough to take a chance to win the game and I am looking for a 2-1 scoreline either way.


Sunderland v Burnley Pick: There is going to be plenty of tension at The Stadium of Light this weekend as the home supporters will know the importance of winning this game if their Sunderland side are going to have an escape from relegation again this season. David Moyes will recognise that too and failing to beat a team who have struggled away from home as much as Burnley have might be too much for Sunderland to overcome.

That might be a little disrespectful to Burnley who have been improving away from home in recent weeks and have been unfortunate not to have earned more points than they have. Burnley were leading 1-2 at Swansea City before losing 3-2 and they were very, very good at Liverpool when leading 0-1 at Anfield last weekend before switching off just before half time.

A similar level to those performances will give Burnley a chance to upsetting Sunderland this weekend, but the poor defensive record away from home can't be ignored. In saying that, Sunderland have not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in recent weeks and have failed to score in their last 3 Premier League games at home, although those have been played against Tottenham Hotspur, Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur.

Sunderland have been better in front of goal when facing teams in the bottom half of the table and they have scored against all 5 teams they have met at The Stadium of Light from the bottom half. They have conceded plenty in those games too and Burnley will offer a threat in this one having scored in their last 7 away Premier League games.

It wouldn't be a big surprise if both teams did score in this one, but Sunderland do have to try and push for the win. Burnley have shown they can be a threat when given space and this does feel like another Premier League game this weekend where both teams will have their opportunities to win a high-scoring game. The layers are dangling odds against for at least three goals to be scored, but that might be a big price in this one.

4 of Sunderland's 5 home games against a team from the bottom half of the table have ended with at least three goals scored, while 6 of the last 7 Burnley away games have done the same. The goalless draw between these two in the Cup came with changed line ups, and I think this will end 2-1 one way or the other.


West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: The theory is that Leicester City have gone back to basics which has sparked a run of 3 successive victories which has moved them away from the bottom three in the Premier League table and also into the Champions League Quarter Final. There are still some question marks about them defensively though which will be exploited by West Ham United, but this looks another Premier League game this weekend which could produce a high return on goals.

The goals that Leicester City are producing will give West Ham United some problems too, even if this is the first away game they have played since the Champions League Last 16 First Leg in Spain. There looks to be more enjoyment on the players' faces at the moment and Leicester City will offer a counter attack similar to the way they were playing last season.

West Ham United are at home so they have to go forward and try to win the game which should make this a fairly open encounter between them. The last 5 West Ham United home games have produced at least three goals while they have only had 1 clean sheet in 6 games here.

Defensive issues have remained for Leicester City too as they have struggled for clean sheets and needed a penalty save to prevent Sevilla scoring during the week. This will be a different test for them as West Ham United have the size to trouble The Foxes, while also the guile to get between the centre backs and full backs.

It does feel like a game where both teams will score and the feeling is that neither will settle for a point if the three are on offer. The game earlier this season didn't produce more than a single goal, but last season saw West Ham United and Leicester City combine for 10 goals over three games and I will look for at least three to be shared out in what feels a weekend schedule packed full of goals.


Bournemouth v Swansea City Pick: Once again I look at a Premier League fixture and everything is screaming out goals for me.

Both Bournemouth and Swansea City have shown they can offer an attacking threat in their recent games, but both have conceded goals at an alarming rate. Even the fact this is something of a 'relegation six pointer' might not curtail the instincts of the players on the pitch and it could be a really good Saturday afternoon live game for the neutrals.

Eddie Howe and Paul Clement both want their teams to attack and that has perhaps left them a little exposed at the back. Despite the Bournemouth win last weekend, it has to be noted that they have conceded at least twice in 6 straight home Premier League games.

Swansea City have conceded at least twice in their last 5 away games in all competitions which includes their last 4 on their travels in the Premier League. However they have scored at Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea and Clement will feel they have great delivery from wide areas and set pieces that should create chances in this one too.

The last 7 times Swansea City have faced Bournemouth have all produced at least three goals and that includes all 3 Premier League meetings over the last eighteen months.

You do have to believe that there will be work done on the defensive side of things, but neither has shown a lot improvement at the back while offering a threat going forward and that should mean chances and, hopefully, goals on the day.


Middlesbrough v Manchester United Pick: It might be a strange atmosphere on the touchline for this early Sunday kick off as Middlesbrough will no longer have Aitor Karanka on their bench and Jose Mourinho has cut an irritated figure about the timings of the recent Manchester United fixtures. He has been especially critical of this game, but not everyone can see the point Mourinho is making.

Roy Keane was particularly critical of the complaints and I'll admit that I am biased towards one of my hero footballers. While I wasn't completely on board with what Keano had to say, I do think Jose Mourinho surprised by indicating he expects to lose at The Riverside Stadium on Sunday.

At the end of the day I do think Mourinho is trying to create a siege mentality for the rest of the season as Manchester United face games thick and fast after the international break. They need to keep winning if the top four is still a realistic goal, but Manchester United will head to Middlesbrough with a number of key players absent.

It might mean Manchester United have to play a tight game and hope to nick this one with the flair players who have to take over for Paul Pogba, Ander Herrera and Zlatan Ibrahimovic on Sunday. They certainly can do that against a Middlesbrough team who have some key injuries in defensive areas and have struggled for goals all season.

The sacking of Karanka does make it a little harder to read how Middlesbrough will approach the game and perhaps the players put in a performance that is in contrast to those they have recently. However it may take the international break to really get the players on board and I think Manchester United will win here.

However they will need to do that with a clean sheet because I don't see a lot of goals in the Manchester United side this weekend. Fatigue is an issue and losing the influential players they have doubles up the difficulty of the fixture. If Middlesbrough score, I would expect the home team will earn a result in this one, but I am going to look for Mourinho to go back to basics and make sure Manchester United don't concede and nick a goal at some point.

I think they will be able to do that and can win this game with a clean sheet.


Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton Pick: This is an important game for Tottenham Hotspur to show they can cope without Harry Kane as they bid to fight on two fronts with their talisman up front. It has been a struggle for them in the past to score the goals needed to win games when Kane is out of the line up, but at least Tottenham Hotspur are playing this game at White Hart Lane.

They have enjoyed home comforts with 12 straight wins here in all competitions and Tottenham Hotspur know there are a host of clubs behind them who are chasing the top four places in the Premier League. Dropping points at home would be a huge blow to their chances and might just raise some doubts that they can't cope without Kane and whether that will be the fatal blow to a potentially successful season.

Tottenham Hotspur can't expect to have an easy ride against a well rested Southampton team who have found a real goalscorer in Manolo Gabbiadini. The Italian has given them an end product without Charlie Austin and it has sparked the rest of the team and Southampton have scored 10 goals in their last 3 games.

The Saints scored 4 times at Sunderland and Watford, but they are also a team that can struggled defensively without Virgil van Dijk leading the line. They have conceded 3 times in each of their last couple of games and I think this is yet another Premier League game that can see both teams score.

The home team will struggle with the pace that Southampton can offer, but I also think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to show that the loss of Kane is not going to cost them the chance to achieve their ambitions. Last season Southampton won 1-2 here so have to be respected, and this does feel like the kind of game that may end 2-1 either way on Sunday.

Earlier this season these teams combined for five goals and I will look for at least three in this one as both Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton show enough attacking intent throughout the game to create the opportunities for the likes of Dele Alli and Gabbiadini to take.


Manchester City v Liverpool Pick: Both Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp offered high praise for the other's style of management this week, but all pleasantries will be put to the back burner on Sunday with three huge points on offer. The winning team will feel they have taken a big step towards the Champions League next season, while the losing team will be looking over their shoulders at Arsenal and Manchester United behind them.

Manchester City and Liverpool should combine to put on a real entertaining game with the home team in fine form and Liverpool playing their best against the top six sides in the League. Liverpool have won at Arsenal and Chelsea this season and drawn at Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United so they have to be given plenty of respect in this one.

It has been a struggle for Manchester City at times, but they have also looked very strong in moments when hosting the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. They have only won one of those games, but Manchester City had both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur on the ropes without being able to finish those teams off.

In all of those home games, Manchester City have scored and conceded in bunches and I have a feeling this game is going to go the same way. Manchester City will create chances with the pace they have and going up against a Liverpool defence that has struggled, but don't be surprised if Liverpool do the same with the pace they have up front against a City defence that has struggled.

While I am not anticipating this game going the same way as when Monaco visited Manchester City, I am expecting at least four goals to be shared out by two attacking teams who won't sit back even if they do go in front. Manchester City's home games with Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur this season both finished with at least four goals shared out and Liverpool surpassed that number in a win at Arsenal.

3 of the last 4 Premier League games between these teams at The Etihad Stadium have also ended with at least four goals shared out and it looks a big price on the day. It would be a real surprise if both of these teams didn't score at least once and the attacking intent of the teams should produce some fireworks in the final Premier League game for two weeks.


Bristol City v Huddersfield Town Pick: They might be down in 22nd place in the Championship but Bristol City have produced enough inconsistent results of late to be a danger. This is a team who have recently drawn at Newcastle United and at home with Norwich City, but also been beaten by the likes of Leeds United and Fulham.

That should keep Huddersfield Town focused on a game where the three points means so much to both teams. Huddersfield Town will at least point out they have won 6 of their last 8 away games in the League and they have won games at teams in the bottom half during that time.

Huddersfield Town have won at Burton Albion, Wigan Athletic, Queens Park Rangers, Rotherham United and Brentford in that run and all of those teams are in and around Bristol City. I do have to respect the fact that Bristol City have lost 1 of their last 5 home games in the League, but that came against an in-form Fulham and The Robins also had to come back from a goal behind twice in a 2-2 draw with Sheffield Wednesday here.

They battled back for a 1-1 draw with Norwich City too and I think Huddersfield Town might have a little bit more in their tank to continue their fine away run in the League. Huddersfield Town might not have won here often in recent seasons, but they look a big price to earn a win this weekend and I will back them to edge the three points.


Sheffield Wednesday v Reading Pick: There has been a trend of teams flying up the League standings and making the Play Offs in the Championship in recent seasons, but that also means there are those in the top six who have slipped up. Both Reading and Sheffield Wednesday look like they might be hitting a poor patch of form at the wrong time and that makes this a big game for both.

Both teams have lost 3 of their last 5 League games and won just 1 of those games but home advantage might be key for Sheffield Wednesday.

That is because Reading have lost 3 away games in a row and been beaten 3-0 in back to back games at Brighton and Preston North End. Sheffield Wednesday have only won 1 of their last 3 games here, but they had been in good form at Hillsborough prior to that and I think The Owls can edge this one.

There is some real pressure on both teams with Fulham and Preston North End closing in on the top six in each passing week and the losing team might just have lost all confidence by the end of the ninety minutes. Those pressures can lead to some big mistakes, but I will look for Sheffield Wednesday to just about do enough to earn the three points and will back them to earn those.

MY PICKS: West Brom-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Everton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Ham United-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Swansea City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.60 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)



March Update25-26-3, + 2.38 Units (105 Units Staked, + 2.27% Yield)

February Final31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
November Final40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (March 17-19)

This is a big week in European Football as both the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Final draws will be made at the end of the week and teams will begin to smell the opportunity to win the tournaments.

The Champions League in particularly is set to produce four solid Quarter Finals with the majority of the best teams moving through and it looks to be a trophy decided by Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Barcelona with a couple of dark horses perhaps working their way into the Final as Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid have in the last couple of years.

The Europa League also seems to have a bigger impact than in previous years with the winner getting a place in the Champions League next season. Teams like Sevilla, Napoli, Fiorentina and Everton might see the Europa League as their best chance to get into the premier competition of European Football and all are amongst the favourites to win the trophy in Warsaw.


Before the draw, there are still twelve matches to be played across the next three days in the two different competitions as teams look to book their place in the Quarter Finals. The two English teams left in the Champions League look almost certain to be exiting the competition following home defeats, but Everton are still fighting in the Europa League and have a 2-1 lead to take to Dynamo Kiev on Thursday.

While two of the Champions League ties look to be heading in favour of Monaco and Barcelona who host Arsenal and Manchester City respectively, the other two Champions League ties between Atletico Madrid-Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund-Juventus look finely balanced and should produce some fascinating viewing.


Hopefully it will be another good week for the picks as this month has been a good one so far, but there are still another two weeks to go to record a positive result and recover what has been a poor season so far.


Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: It was a big surprise to see Atletico Madrid lose in Germany last month and failing to grab an away goal puts them in a very difficult situation when it comes to this Second Leg. A 1-0 defeat means Atletico Madrid would be in a desperate situation if Bayer Leverkusen were to score at the Vicente Calderon on Tuesday, but the home team should have confidence they can recover the scoreline having won 8 of their last 9 home games in the Champions League.

They have also kept clean sheets in their last 5 home games in the Champions League despite hosting teams of the calibre of Barcelona, Chelsea and Juventus, but a bigger concern for Atletico Madrid may be their struggles in front of goal.

A poor run of form has seen Atletico Madrid fail to score in 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions and it is no surprise they have failed to win any of those games. Compare that to the confidence that Bayer Leverkusen should have with 4 wins from their last 5 games in all competitions and the task gets a little bigger for the Finalists of last season.

The tie is finely balanced and I do have to say the footballing cliche of the importance of the first goal has to be used in this game. If Atletico Madrid can get themselves in front, I think they can go on and win this game and move into the Quarter Final, but a goal for Bayer Leverkusen would be too much to overcome from a mental standpoint.

Missing Diego Godin and Tiago is a big problem for Atletico Madrid, while Leverkusen will be inspired by what Schalke did across town at Real Madrid last week. However, I think the experience in the Atletico Madrid dressing room plus the importance that Diego Simeone seems to have placed in the Champions League should give the home team the edge.

I can see Atletico Madrid overturning the First Leg deficit in this one and move into the Quarter Final and will back them to do that at odds against.


Monaco v Arsenal Pick: The First Leg should be decisive in this tie if Monaco continue producing the defensive performances they have been both at home and in the Champions League this season. There is no need for the home team to over-commit going forward especially as Arsenal need to score at least three times here to have any chance of going through and I would be surprised if Monaco come out with any other system but one to prevent conceding goals.

I would expect Monaco to allow Arsenal to have the ball and try and pick them off on the counter-attack, while the home team even have the benefit of knowing a narrow loss will move them through to the Quarter Final.

This isn't an unfamiliar position for Arsenal to be essentially down and out from the First Leg of the Last 16 tie in the Champions League, but they have shown in recent years that they are capable of at least earning some pride back. That has been most clear from the two games against Bayern Munich when Arsenal were behind by two goals from the First Leg at home, but actually beat Bayern Munich and drew with them at the Allianz Arena in the Second Leg.

There are goals in the Arsenal team, even against a defensively disciplined Monaco team, and they created enough chances in the home leg to know they will have the ability to score here. Olivier Giroud had an awful game at the Emirates Stadium, but he should be inspired by playing back in his native country and there are a few connections with the French League in the Arsenal camp.

Most notably is Arsene Wenger who is a former Monaco manager and Arsenal have won their last 6 games in France so I think there is every chance they can win on Tuesday. With the goals they have been scoring and Monaco unlikely to commit too much going the other way, Arsenal may end up securing the win but ultimately being knocked out of the tournament and I will back the Gunners to earn a Pyrrhic victory here.


Barcelona v Manchester City Pick: This is a huge game for Manuel Pellegrini and his Manchester City team whose chances of winning something this season were reduced drastically over the last month. The home loss in the First Leg of this tie puts them in a very difficult position to turn things around and progress to their first Quarter Final in the Champions League, while a 1-0 defeat at Burnley means they are distant second favourites to win the Premier League.

In fact, the bigger concern for Manchester City in the League will be being dragged into a fight for a top four berth and a place back in the Champions League next season. The form hasn't been good enough of late with 3 losses in 4 games in all competitions and the lack of cohesion shows the split in the dressing room that had been talked about over the last week.

It isn't the best time to be playing Barcelona who have really picked up their form, if still guilty of a couple of performances that have been lacking something in the final third. The home loss to Malaga was a disappointment, but they have bounced back in style and the more direct play makes Barcelona more of a threat to run riot on teams.

Luis Suarez has begun to link up magnificently with Neymar and Lionel Messi and it was the former Liverpool striker's two goals that gave Barcelona the lead from the First Leg. The front three will give Manchester City a lot to think about in the form they have been displaying and Barcelona should be far too strong for the English Champions who have to score at least twice to give themselves a chance of progressing.

Manchester City have to hope Barcelona are distracted by the big League game with Real Madrid coming up this weekend, but this is a team that is in form and has until Sunday for that League game. I really felt Manchester City had a decent chance against Barcelona twelve months ago, but key players like Pablo Zabaleta and Vincent Kompany have regressed this season and Barcelona's direct attacks will cause too many problems for them.

At odds against, I think Barcelona can dominate much of this game and win it by a couple of goals at least.


Borussia Dortmund v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties remaining, this is the one that seems to be the most interesting for the neutral for the simple reason that the winner of the tie could potentially be a dark horse to win the whole Champions League.

While the Bayer Leverkusen-Atletico Madrid tie is also separated by one goal, a Leverkusen win would be a real shock, but picking between Juventus and Borussia Dortmund is tough, even in the face of the form that the latter have shown domestically.

Home advantage could be crucial for Borussia Dortmund who have really been a difficult place to visit in the Champions League with the vocal support they receive from the stands. Just ask Real Madrid who have been beaten handily in their last two knock-out ties in Dortmund and it is a big test for Juventus who have not travelled well in the Champions League.

I expected the First Leg to be an exciting one with chances at both ends of the field and that was the case- the Second Leg should also be one where there will be chances created in my opinion.

Borussia Dortmund will always try and push forward at home and an early goal for either team should see spaces open up as the other side will have to score to stay alive in the tie. The layers didn't expect to see many goals in the First Leg, but they have cottoned on to the factors surrounding this game and have at least knocked down the prices.

Not by enough as far as I am concerned and the odds against quote for there being at least three goals looks a big price to me.


Dinamo Moscow v Napoli Pick: The 3-1 First Leg advantage for Napoli looks to have helped the Italians put one foot into the Quarter Finals, but they have to be aware of any complacency as they head to Russia where Dinamo Moscow have been very productive. Recent form displayed by Napoli makes this anything but a foregone conclusion and an early goal for Dinamo Moscow would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.

The one saving grace for Napoli is that they have the firepower to erase the away goal they conceded at home last week and Dinamo Moscow have only kept two clean sheets from their 6 home games in the Europa League. On the other hand, Dinamo Moscow will back themselves to be able to score enough goals to win this tie especially as they have come from behind to beat both Panathinaikos and Anderlecht in their last two European games at home.

With a two goal deficit to make up, Dinamo Moscow are unlikely to try and feel their way into the Second Leg and have to get on the front foot. That might play into the hands of Napoli who have a very good counter attacking team that will enjoy the space that Dinamo Moscow could potentially leave behind them.

An early goal for the home team does change things for Napoli and will increase the tension on their side of the pitch, but Rafa Benitez has a very good record as manager in European competition and I expect him to set the team up accordingly.

Both teams should have chances to score in this game considering how poorly Napoli have played on their travels, but I do think the Italians get on the scoreboard too. Dinamo Moscow could be caught chasing the game as it goes on which makes backing them or the draw a dangerous scenario and instead I will look for goals to be shared between these teams.


Dynamo Kiev v Everton Pick: There were plenty of chances at both ends of the field in the First Leg last week to give Dynamo Kiev and Everton reason to believe they can win this tie and it is finely balanced with Everton 2-1 up. The away goal will give Dynamo Kiev a real belief they can come through despite the deficit, while Roberto Martinez has to be intrigued by the problems Everton caused Dynamo Kiev with a more direct approach to things.

I do think home advantage may end up being crucial in this one as Dynamo Kiev have scored plenty of goals in front of their own fans both at home and in Europe this season and that has to inspire confidence. The first goal could be very important with it being a 'tie-changing' one no matter which side gets ahead and I don't believe Roberto Martinez will look to his Everton side to protect what they have.

That could lead to an entertaining encounter as the Everton pace down the channels caused a lot of problems for Dynamo Kiev last week. On the other hand, Everton's defence still doesn't look watertight and I do believe a similar game will develop with both teams going forward and looking to score goals.

Picking a winner looks tough with the first goal likely having a big impact in how this game develops and I am finding it hard to separate the sides. As I said, home advantage may just give Dynamo Kiev the edge, but I will go back to the well and look for goals in this game.

Another early goal like the First Leg would really open this game up, regardless of which way it goes, and both teams have shown an ability to get amongst the goals in this competition. It is a real possibility that extra time may also be called upon, but I will simply back there being goals and look to sit back and enjoy an exciting game.


Roma v Fiorentina Pick: It has been a miserable few months for Roma who have dropped a lot of points and been dragged back into a fight for the Champions League places in Serie A. Another home defeat on Monday night means the likes of Lazio, Napoli and Fiorentina are not far behind Roma in the race for 2nd in the League table, while the title has gone with Juventus running away with it yet again.

The 1-1 draw in Florence last week does make Roma the favourites to progress to the Quarter Final of the Europa League, but Fiorentina are the team in better form and I think they can upset the home team and move through at their expense.

It wouldn't be the first Cup competition that Fiorentina have ended Roma's run this season as they already won 0-2 here in the Coppa Italia and their come from behind win over Milan on Monday night shows the belief in this squad of players.

Fiorentina were beaten in this Stadium by Lazio in their last away games, but they had previously won 4 of 5 away games in all competitions and they have won at Roma and Juventus in that run of games.

Roma have failed to win any of their last 11 home games in all competitions and they have lost 2 of their last 5 games here and I think there is every chance that Fiorentina win this game within 90 minutes. However, I will have a small interest on Fiorentina finding a way to qualify for the Quarter Finals which covers me in case there is a high-scoring draw or if Fiorentina need the additional thirty minutes to fight through in extra time.


Besiktas v Club Brugge Pick: The First Leg saw Besiktas in a very comfortable position at 0-1 up but a combination of an improvement from Club Brugge and perhaps some complacency in the away team saw the scoreline overturned and it is the Belgian side who have the 2-1 lead.

There shouldn't be too much panic from Besiktas who know a 1-0 win would be enough to see them through to the Quarter Final and I expect Slaven Bilic to urge his side to relax and make sure they work the game effectively. They have coped with a First Leg deficit in the Last 32 when they saw off Liverpool on penalties after winning the Second Leg here 1-0 and they have been very good at home all season in European competition.

On the other hand, don't expect Club Brugge to come here and be rolled over as the team have yet to be beaten in the Europa League and have won their last 4 away ties in the competition. That is impressive from the Belgian League leaders and I don't expect them to take a step backwards in this one even though they have the lead from the First Leg.

It might come a time when Club Brugge look to defend what they have, but the game plan has to be to try and erase the away goal they gave up at home last week.

Besiktas won't mind taking their time as long as they don't concede the first goal and I think they have played well enough at home to be expected to win. They also showed enough in the First Leg to suggest they are the better team and perhaps the loud support they generally receive from the stands will prevent any complacency creeping in.


Inter Milan v Wolfsburg Pick: The First Legs of the Europa League ties were expected to bring goals and didn't disappoint for the most part and this is a tie that could produce some fireworks in the Second Leg too. Inter Milan have to get forward and score goals at some point, while Wolfsburg are a team that prefers playing on the front foot but could also exploit spaces with quick counter-attacking football.

Of course the onus isn't on Wolfsburg to score goals here with a two goal advantage, but they won't want the away goal to potentially come into play and getting on the scoreboard could take away any belief Inter Milan really have in turning this tie around.

Roberto Mancini has struggled to get a consistent tune out of Inter Milan, but there won't be much need for them to sit back if they do fall behind as they will need to score at least three times at that point. That could see both teams create chances in the game and both have shown in the First Leg that they can finish when those come their way.

I did expect goals last week in Germany and I see no reason why that won't be the case again when they play in Milan. The layers aren't taking too many chances with the prices but the overs looks the right play.


Sevilla v Villarreal Pick: The First Leg advantage means Sevilla can really wait and see what Villarreal are going to bring to the table in this game and look to pick them off if they are a little too gung-ho to try and get back into the tie.

Three away goals is a really difficult proposition to overcome for Villarreal and they might be a little demoralised heading into this game from their First Leg performance. That might not show immediately, but if Sevilla can nose in front in this Second Leg, it might be too much for Villarreal to deal with mentally.

Sevilla have been producing a lot of positive results at home and they have goals in the side- the way they recovered a First Leg home loss against Real Betis last season should also focus the mind of the home players who won't want to suffer the same fate as their city rivals and I expect that focus to be on display.

While Sevilla don't have to win, the momentum is behind them at home and they have become accustomed to victories in front of their own fans. At odds against, I will back Sevilla to move into the Quarter Final with some style.

MY PICKS: Atletico Madrid to Qualify @ 2.50 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.30 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dinamo Moscow-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Fiorentina to Qualify @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Besiktas @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Inter Milan-Wolfsburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sevilla @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

March Update16-11, + 12.24 Units (49 Units Staked, + 24.98% Yield)

February Final20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)