Champions League Final 2012

The Champions League Final is in Munich this year and at least one of these teams has to be considered a real surprise Finalist. When the draw for the Quarter Finals were made, I think the majority of people out there would have thought this was going to be a Final between the two Spanish giants of Real Madrid and Barcelona, but both were ousted by Bayern Munich and Chelsea at the Semi Final stage.

I think the two teams need to be given absolute credit for reaching this stage and it is no surprise that Bayern Munich are considered the favourites with the Final taking place in their home stadium, but the last team given this right was Roma back in 1984 and they failed to win that Final against another English side, Liverpool.

Below you will find my keys to the game and what I believe will be the decisive factor when it is all said and done. I will also post a link to my preview of the game and my pick from the Final.

Keys to the Final

Can Chelsea defend as they did in the Semi Final: Chelsea were rightly given a lot of praise for their win over Barcelona in the Semi Finals, but I think they were given a little too much for their defensive performance as they did afford the Catalan club a number of chances to score in both legs, although the second half performance in the second leg with ten men was more than admirable.

Defending Bayern Munich in that manner may lead to more problems for Chelsea as they will be dealing with front man in Mario Gomez that Barcelona do not have. Gomez is very much a striker that will look to get on the end of chances and also gives Bayern a 'Plan B' as he is very good in the air and that is an element that Barcelona do not have.

That also meant that Chelsea could defend much narrower in the Semi Final with the confidence that Barcelona would not launch balls into the box and, even if they did, that they could defend anything that came in there. But Chelsea are missing some big defenders and that leads me to the second key for the game.

How will Chelsea cope in the absence of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic: Both teams are misisng some players through suspension, but these two could be the absolute key for the London club as that means the likes of Gary Cahill and David Luiz are likely to make up the back four, two players that have not played much football recently through injury.

Without the calming influence Terry provides (at least when he is not kneeing opponents in the backside), it is going to be a tougher day in the office for the defence, while David Luiz in particular  has to show the discipline he did in the latter half of the season rather than what he was showing earlier in the campaign.

With the Bayern Munich wingers, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, being their main dangers, that is where the absence of Branislav Ivanovic could be huge as Paulo Ferriera or Jose Bosingwa, his most likely replacements, are a huge drop off in terms of defending class compared with the Serbian.

An unfamiliar back four is not the ideal way any team would want to start a Champions League Final.

The Midfield Battle: This is another area where Chelsea will be missing some key personnel like Ramires and Raul Meireles, but this is also a position where Bayern Munich will be missing Luis Gustavo who did a lot of good work in the Semi Final against Real Madrid.

The problem for Chelsea is they are missing two of their more dynamic central midfield players and they could find it hard to keep tabs on the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos when Bayern are on the attack.

Midfield is always an important part of any football game and it does seem that the German side have the edge in that department. Chelsea will need Frank Lampard, who will be Captain for the day, at his very best, but I do worry about the impact Jon Mikel Obi can have in a game of this magnitude.

Problems earlier in the season for Chelsea can from a tired looking midfield and that is something I worry about them here. I don't think they have the legs required there to keep the roaming Bayern players at bay.

However, the Bavarians will be missing Gustavo and he is the main player that looks to break the play for them. This will give Chelsea the chance to spring some counter attacks and try and expose a Munich defence that isn't the best.

Chelsea have to be quick on the counter and take any half chances coming their way: Much as they did against Barcelona, Chelsea need to make maximum use of the counter attack, and they have to take any chances that land to them.

Let's face facts- they literally had about 4 chances against Barcelona in the Semi Final and were very efficient by taking 3 of them, but they will need that type of production if they are going to win this Final.

I expect they will look to contain Bayern for large parts of this game, so they have to make full use of the speed they are likely to employ in wide positions and hope Didier Drogba is in the same mood he was for the Barcelona games in what could be his final appearance for the Blues.

The Bayern Munich defence is definitely the weakest aspect of their team and, like Chelsea, they are missing a couple of key players in Holger Badstuber and David Alaba. This is an area that Chelsea will be able to exploit as long as they are efficient and making the right decisions when they do have the ball going forward.

Dealing with the expectation: This is a big emotional factor in the game- all season, Bayern Munich have spoken about getting to the Final that will be held in their own Stadium and now that they are here, the question has to be asked as to how she deals with the expectations of their supporters and upper levels of management.

Bayern are the favourites almost every where you look and that is a big expectation to deal with for the players as they enter the biggest match of their careers (for a lot of them at least).

How they deal with it is a tough question to answer- I can tell you after I watch the game, but there is no real telling before kick off.but this will be a big key in the contest.

I will be expecting Bayern to make a fast start and try and ease their own nerves, but nerves do lead to mistakes and they have to be careful not to overplay the game in their minds.

Luck: Sometimes all you need is luck (I think that's what the Beatles were singing about)... Chelsea have had their fair share of luck already in this tournament, but they could win the trophy if they haven't used it all up.

Chelsea were fortunate in games against Napoli and even Barcelona to a certain extent, but that doesn't mean it is due to run out. I remember Manchester United's run to the 1999 Champions League trophy and we had our fair share of luck in wins over Inter Milan, Juventus and then against Bayern Munich in the Final when we could easily have been 3 or 4 goals down.

Is it their destiny to win the Champions League? I guess we will find out on Saturday.

Predicted Teams

Bayern Munich: Neuer, Contento, Lahm, Boateng, Tymoschchuk, Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Pranjic, Robben, Ribery and Gomez (4-2-3-1)

Chelsea: Cech, Bosingwa, Cole, Cahill, Luiz, Mikel, Lampard, Essien, Mata, Kalou and Drogba (4-3-3)

Preview

You can find my full preview of this game and why I am picking what I am here (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14299-Bayern-Munich-v-Chelsea.htm)


MY PICK: Bayern Munich @ 1.80 Coral (3 Units)

Manchester City v Manchester United (April 30th 2012)

So it is almost time for the biggest Manchester Derby in living memory and one that could go an absolutely long way to deciding the final destiny of the Premier League title this season.

Manchester United will be extremely disappointed they don't have more margin for error coming into the game having dropped points at Wigan Athletic and, more disappointingly, last week at home to Everton.

That has enabled Manchester City to close the gap, but this is the first time they will be playing under any kind of pressure since their 1-0 loss to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium earlier in the month.

Below, I will set out what I feel will be the keys to the outcome of the game, will provide a link for the preview I have of the game and also the final pick of April.

Keys to the Game

The Midfield battle: As with any Manchester United game of real importance, Sir Alex Ferguson has to make the correct choices in the problematic midfield positions to ensure they are not overrun in that area.

The biggest key will be making sure the movement of the likes of Yaya Toure, David Silva and Samir Nasri are accounted for at all times- they dynamic pass and move midfields like Barcelona last year, and Athletic Bilbao this year have made United a little static on that front and they cannot afford to leave the space between midfield and defence that the likes of Silva and Nasri will look to move into.

With Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez up front, they will make the little runs that can be hard to track for defenders, so United must cut off the supply by clogging up the space in front of the defence and not allowing Silva and Nasri to turn and face the defence.

We saw in the Bilbao game how easy it is for teams to get at United if they have men exploiting the spaces they leave behind the midfield and that could be a terminal problem for the title challenge if they do the same today.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sir Alex starts Wayne Rooney on the left to make sure that the likes of Carrick, Scholes and AN Other have enough bodies in the middle of the park where City like to do their best work.

That system will turn into a 4-3-3 on the attack with Rooney and Valencia being able to support Danny Welbeck who should be the furthest player up front.

The Counter Attack: This is going to be where United are likely to find their most success in this game and they have to be smart with their decision making when going forward. City are likely to leave a few spaces at the back and we have seen the likes of Sunderland and Sporting Lisbon really exploit the gaps behind the full backs that will need to push on for space.

IF United can clog up the midfield in the manner described above, that means the most space City will have is in the wider areas, an area in which Micah Richards and Gael Clichy will be expected to move into... That is when the likes of Wayne Rooney and Antonio Valencia will have to be ready to provide a quick outlet for the United team when they win the ball back and look to get in behind the City midfield.

There were occasions that Wolves managed to find themselves in healthy 3 on 4 situations and with both Sunderland and Sporting Lisbon also exploiting these situations, it looks the best way for United to get a foothold in this game.

Being clinical in front of goal: I think it is fair to say that the City front two of Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez are a little more clinical than United's Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck, but I think the last of those players is the one that can make or break it for the away side.

Welbeck looked like a real finisher when he first moved up to the senior team and while his overall game play has come on leaps and bounds, he can be a little hit or miss in front of goal at the moment.

United will need him to have his shooting boots on tonight as there is a lot of pressure of being the main forward in games like these- I am expecting Wayne Rooney to have to put in a big shift for United defending and perhaps playing wider when United do go forward, so it will be on Danny Welbeck's shoulders to get in amongst the two centre backs.

The young England striker has scored against City in the Cup this season, while also getting a big goal at Arsenal, so he does have it in him, but he must show full composure tonight and take any kind of chance he gets.

Set Pieces: This is interesting as City do look a real threat from set pieces with the size of Toure, Lescott and Kompany and all three have been amongst the goals in these situations. I expect United to counter that by bringing in Chris Smalling at right back to offer more protection from corners and free kicks that will be put in the box.

On the other side, I think this could be an area where United can enjoy some success too, especially if City go with the smaller side and use the likes of Clichy ahead of Kolarov and Tevez instead of Balotelli.

Chelsea managed to get a goal from a set piece against City in a game here last month, while United have always put in great stock in this part of the game.

Who can handle the pressure better: This is where United will feel they have the edge as they have plenty of players that have been there and done it in the past when it comes to winning the Premier League title and so I do expect a very experienced side to be put out by Sir Alex tonight, one containing the likes of Ferdinand, Evra, Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Rooney.

City, on the other hand, really crumbled a little under the pressure of having to achieve results last month and in the early part of April, but look back to their best recently.

However, this is the first time they will be under any real pressure again as they know a win is the only result that matters- it will be interesting to see if they have mentally toughened up from a few weeks ago for a game of this magnitude and it could be the absolute key to the game.

It is a cliché, but the first goal is going to be absolutely crucial tonight- if United get it, it will be very interesting to see how City react, while if City get it, will they really start believing?

Manchester City v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14028-Manchester-City-v-Manchester-United.htm)

MY PICK: Score Draw @ 6.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Barcelona v Manchester United- Key to the Games

We have had a run through the teams and looking at which of the clubs will have the edge in each department. I am now looking at 'keys to the game' and how each side can win this game and take home the trophy.

The keys to the game:

1) The First Goal: In most 'big' games, the first goal in the contest is crucial and this game is no different. If Barcelona get it, it could be a long day for United as the Spanish team keeps the ball so well.

However, if United can get it, they have the know how defensively to make life difficult for Barcelona and could lead to a famous victory.


2) The Officials: The Officials have to be strong in this game and they cannot allow it to be overshadowed by controversy. They must also be aware of any gamesmanship taking place and must stamp their authority on the game.


3) The Midfield Battle: This is the heartbeat of the Barcelona team and it is up to Manchester United to make it hard for the Catalan club to play their brand of football. United cannot spend 70 minutes chasing shadows because it will be too tiring for them. The likes of Michael Carrick and Ji Sung Park must harry Andres Iniesta and Xavi, while Ryan Giggs must keep possession when United do get time to play.


4) Lionel Messi: The Argentine superstar may be feeling additional pressure in this game as many have tipped him to join the greatest players of all time if he can lead Barcelona to their 3rd title in 6 seasons. He has not really performed at his best against English sides in the past, even though he did score the 2nd in Rome 2 years ago.



What Must Barcelona do to Win
Barcelona's tactics to win the game will be the same as they are for most of their games- they will look to keep the possession for long periods and eventually work an opening once they have their opposition chasing shadows.

However, they must also be able to negate the United midfield by moving the ball quickly past them and not allowing United to settle into a defensive shape. A slow build up from Barcelona could play into United's hands, especially if they have not scored an early goal.

Getting the ball as often to Lionel Messi and allowing him to run at the defence. If Barcelona can get Messi into pockets of space where he can run at the defence and get them running back towards their own goal, Barcelona will see other players finding space and creating chances. Messi must influence the game as much as possible and not allow himself to get lost in the mix.

David Villa must take advantage of his likely match up with Fabio. The Spaniard has a lot more experience than the right back and he is one of the best when it comes to movement. Villa must try and expose the positioning of Fabio as he makes his runs from the left side of the front trio.

Gerard Pique must also move the ball out of defence at his feet and try and start moves to Iniesta and Xavi. I imagine United will try to cut the supply through Busquets at the bottom of the midfield three, so it is up to Pique (being more comfortable on the ball than Puyol) to start moves.

Pep Guardiola must have a 'Plan B' for this game- good defensive sides have been the achilles heal of Barcelona for some time and they must have a tactic to break down a wall of players if they are faced with it again.


What Must Manchester United do to Win
The first thing United have to do is defend well- they proved in the 2008 Semi Finals that they can defend well if they concentrate as the 1-0 win over 2 Legs demonstrated. It is a tactic that has frustrated Barcelona in the past, with Chelsea, Liverpool, Inter Milan and United all showing they can set up to make life difficult for Barcelona.

Sir Alex Ferguson is smart enough to know that Barcelona will have the lion's share of the possession, but United can limit what they do with that possession. Barcelona are one of the shortest sides in Europe, so the best option is to play narrow and force them to go wide... If they score with a cross and a header, you say too good. But I am sure United will fancy their chances with Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic that they will win the majority of balls in the air.

Further on from the possession point, force Xavi and Iniesta to look for Dani Alves and Maxwell/Eric Abidal with the ball. If Barcelona are going to have 70% of possession, make sure Alves and the left back are seeing a lot of the ball in that time. Again, if they cross and score you have to say too good.

Keeping Lionel Messi quiet will also be important for United. They must not let the diminutive Argentine find pockets of space and must have him marked quickly and not allow him to turn on the ball. I dont think they need to man mark Messi but take responsibility as a defensive unit.

United must exploit the space that Barcelona leave behind on the attack. The counter attack can be effective as both Alves and the left back charge forward and the pace of Antonio Valencia and Javier Hernandez can cause plenty of problems. Play the ball into the channels and force Puyol and Pique away from their comfort zone.

The team must use their size defensively as well as on the attack. All set pieces have to be 'put into the mixer' as United will enjoy a size advantage. Arsenal's goal at the Nou Camp came from a corner that caused panic in the backline.

Keeping hold of the ball is also key for United when they get it back. Barca's pressing game means they will have more of the ball, but United cannot afford to give it away with sloppy passes as soon as they get it. It is a key to giving the defence some respite and also allowing them to maintain their shape rather than losing the ball and a goal in transistion.


Verdict
Both teams have tactics they need to enforce if they are to win this game. Lionel Messi is an absolute key to both teams as one looks to get him on the ball while the other seeks to reduce his influence as much as possible.

Sir Alex Ferguson has spoken about 'concentration' a lot this week and I feel the manager thinks the side did not concentrate properly in the Final of 2009, while they were brilliant for 180 minutes in the Semi Finals of 2008. This will be absolutely key for United who must be zoned in for every single minute of this game.

This United team is not as good as the one that beat Barcelona in 2008, but even that victory was off the back of 2 special defensive performances rather than flair going forward. With Javier Hernandez playing off the last man, United have plenty of scope going forward this season, they have to defend very well though, something they have shown themselves to be capable of.

Barcelona will look to make Wembley as wide as possible on Saturday, but United must remain focused and make the game narrow. It is unlikely that Barca will win with a superb header, especially with the Ferdinand-Vidic partnership, and by making the pitch narrow, it makes the little intricate moves Barca like that much more difficult.

While some in the media think Barcelona just need to turn up to collect the trophy, I think the game will be much tighter and just depends who can enforce their style on the other. Can United sucker punch Barcelona on the counter and defend well? Yes, they can.

Can Barcelona pass the ball and create an opening through some magic from Lionel Messi? Yes they can.

But whatever happens, I very much doubt it will be easy and the nerves will be frayed