NBA PlayOffs First Round Picks 2023- Games 5 to 7 (April 25-30)

NBA PlayOffs First Round Games 5-7

I can't really have asked for much more through the first four games of each of the First Round Series and the strong start to the PlayOffs are appreciated.

Building on that will be tough with the Conference Semi Final Series around the corner, but first we have to complete the First Round with only the Philadelphia 76ers through to the next Round. I would expect the likes of the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns to join them very soon, while there are a couple of the higher Seeded teams in desperate trouble at 1-3 down.

Things can change quickly in the post-season, but the picture above is just a reminder that you cannot take any of the veteran oddsmakers for granted despite the strong start.

Dillon Brooks has learned not to 'poke the bear' and I am only going to appreciate my start, but not dare to disrespect the lines and where they have been set.

Maintaining a 73% strike rate is virtually impossible, but avoiding a really negative run is the plan to round out the First Round.

Tuesday 25th April

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: Anthony Edwards made it clear that he never wants to be swept in the post-season and the young Minnesota Timberwolves player has done all he can to avoid that fate in the First Round against the Denver Nuggets. They needed Overtime in Game 4, but the Timberwolves have pushed this Series back to Denver, although Minnesota are a significant underdog as they look for at least one more home game.

Some disappointment will have been evident in the Denver locker room after failing to complete the sweep, but the Nuggets have to feel really good about the way they have handled the pressure of being the top Seed in the Western Conference. A much tougher Series is likely to be ahead with the Phoenix Suns in a position to progress and that means the Nuggets will be keen to avoid being dragged into a Game 6 or even a Game 7.

Being back at home should give them the edge to close the door on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who could be without Kyle Anderson in this game. That decision will be made at game time, but I don't think the Nuggets will be overly concerned with the adjustments that will need to be made to close the Series out and I do think they are going to do that on Tuesday.

I expect the Nuggets to double down on their focus to ensure they are not having to travel back to Minnesota, while the Timberwolves would have invested a lot of effort and emotion to merely avoid the sweep.

The first two games in the Series that were both hosted by Denver were dominated by the Nuggets barring one poor Quarter and I do think they are going to be confident in handling the occasion.

Closing a Series is never easy, but the Denver Nuggets have PlayOff experiences that can help settle them. Teams playing at home in Game 5 of the First Round have tended to be a pretty good play to cover the spread in recent seasons and I think the Nuggets have shown they have the intensity at both ends of the court to beat this Minnesota Timberwolves team that have had to work hard to come through the Play In Tournament.

The Timberwolves have suffered two blowout losses in four visits to Denver this season and I think they will come up short against the spread here.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns Game 5 Pick: When the decision was made to pair up Kahwi Leonard and Paul George, it was the clear the Los Angeles Clippers would have been thinking Championship or bust, but they could not have predicted the continued poor health of their two best players. Both are expected to be sitting out this pivotal Game 5 as the Clippers look to extend the First Round Series with the Phoenix Suns.

They have lost three games in a row since upsetting the Suns in Game 1 and the Los Angeles Clippers have struggled to find the shooting to keep up with a Phoenix team rolling behind Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.

Their own trade for Durant looks like bringing the kind of player that can make the difference for a Suns team that came up slightly short when trying to win the NBA Championship two years ago and I do like the way they have played with one another even since KD has been placed in the line up.

Bigger tests await with the Number 1 Seeded Denver Nuggets almost certainly next, but the Phoenix Suns are trying not to overlook the Los Angeles Clippers and instead will be looking to sign this Series off with a home win and avoid having to go back to the City of Angels.

They have been set as a very big favourite to do that and I am expecting the Suns to close the show, but the line does look a wide one. Even without Leonard, who has joined Paul George on the sidelines, the Los Angeles Clippers have shown enough desire to make sure they are competing as hard as they can and that has resulted in a 5 points and 12 point defeat at home.

This line is slightly above the 12 point mark, but the Clippers are expected to empty the tank and they may be able to keep this one within the spread. Blow out winners in the First Round have tended to back that up in their next game and big favourites have also been very effective in recent years in the First Round, but Russell Westbrook will lead the Clippers here and look to show that there is enough pride in the veteran Clippers line up to at least give Phoenix all they can handle.

Russell Westbrook has stepped up when Leonard has gone down, but it is unlikely to be enough to earn a Game 6 back at home. Instead, he can at least make sure the Clippers go down swinging and they can do enough to keep within the line even in a losing effort as Phoenix begin to look ahead to a likely meeting with the Number 1 Seed in the West.

Wednesday 26th April

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: The fan base has been one that has suffered plenty to really believe what some had suggested before a ball had been tipped in this First Round Series, but the New York Knicks are matching up as well as expected against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Splitting two games in Cleveland gave them the edge, but the Knicks have backed that up perfectly by beating the Cavaliers twice at The Garden and are now one win away from a first Series win in ten years.

Things may even be opening up for the New York Knicks to have their best run in a generation with the Number 1 Seed Milwaukee Bucks struggling in a Series of their own, but fans will not be looking past this First Round Series.

One more win is still one more win and this will not come easy for the New York Knicks as they prepare to deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers looking to throw all they can at their opponent and try and push the Series into a Game 6.

The Knicks have the momentum with the back to back wins in the Series, while they have won six of the eight games played between the teams this season. The four games played in Cleveland have been split and the Knicks will have to respect the fact that they were blown out in their last visit to this Arena in Game 2.

Adjustments are going to be made by the Cleveland Cavaliers having struggled in aspects of their play in both the Offensive and Defensive side of the court. Being outplayed on the boards has really hurt the Cavaliers and they need more from Donovan Mitchell, the big off-season trade who was taken from under the noses of the New York Knicks.

Strong Defensive performances have seen the New York Knicks take control of games and I do think they have every chance of winning this game on the road. Momentum and the match up edge which has been evident all season against the Cleveland Cavaliers does give the Knicks a big advantage and I think they can keep this one close, if not win for a second time.

I have to expect better from the Cavaliers back at home, but they have struggled to find the right answers so far in this First Round Series and the New York depth should keep this one competitive.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Pick: Giving up a game-tying field goal with less than a second remaining on the clock and then falling short in the Overtime period would be a tough blow for any team to suffer in the PlayOffs. It becomes much more difficult to absorb when you think the Memphis Grizzlies are now in a 1-3 hole having failed to hold onto a strong lead in the Fourth Quarter.

At the start of the season there were suggestions from the Grizzlies that there was not one team in the Western Conference that they feared would prevent them from playing in the NBA Finals.

Throw in the Dillon Brooks decision to wind up LeBron James and this is a Series that feels like it has gotten out of control for the Grizzlies and the pressure they are under could cause a crack in Game 5 as Memphis look to save the Series. The Brooks behaviour has some reporting that he will be traded out of Memphis in the off-season having upset some within the organisation with his abrasive personality and the overall negativity around the team is a major concern.

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are experienced as the 2020 NBA Champions and they may feel they have broken the back of this Series by fighting back and winning Game 4 in the manner they did.

A balanced Offensive performance is more impressive when you think of how Anthony Davis struggled, and the Lakers may feel this game is a 'free shot' to complete the Series win with a home game to come in Game 6.

They would love to keep the momentum going from the Overtime win and avoid having the stresses of another game in the Series, and the Lakers will feel good about their Defensive performances. The Lakers were able to hold the Memphis Grizzlies to a 9/42 outing from the three point arc in Game 4, although they have struggled from the distance themselves in this Series and that at least gives the Grizzlies a chance of extending this First Round contest.

Nothing will come easy for Memphis after the way the last game ended, but the home crowd will help as they did in Game 2 when bouncing back from an opening defeat in the Series.

Coming back from 1-3 down will not be easy, but the Grizzlies can only take it a step at a time an I think they will have a slight improvement in their three point shooting to edge to a win and a cover of this mark.

Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: A returning Giannis Antetokounmpo inspired his Milwaukee Bucks very early in Game 4 as they look to level up the First Round Series, but it also seemed to do the same for Jimmy Butler. A huge Fourth Quarter from the Miami Heat's best player saw them overcome a deficit and beat the Bucks to take a 3-1 lead in the First Round Series and move to one more win away from the upset.

Not many expected the Milwaukee Bucks to have too many issues as the Number 1 Seed playing a team coming out of the Play In Tournament, but the Miami Heat would likely have been their last choice of the four potential opponents. These teams played some close games throughout the regular season and there is no doubting the Miami experience and it has turned out to be the case with the Bucks playing in their first elimination game on Wednesday.

Winning three games in a row is helped by the fact that two of those games will be at home, but the Milwaukee Bucks have not won in Florida yet this season and the Series may have shifted in favour of the Miami Heat.

Despite being banged up, Jimmy Butler is helping the Heat overcome the losses of Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, but asking him to score 56 points every night is simply not possible. An efficient three point shooting day helped the Heat in Game 4, but someone has to step up alongside Butler if Miami are going to move through to the Conference Semi Finals.

Adjustments will need to be made by the Bucks too if they are going to find a way to come back in what would be a really underwhelming end to the season if being eliminated in the First Round. This is a team that has Championship ambitions, but they may feel that Jimmy Butler's performance will not be replicated and that should give them a big edge in this Game 5 as they look to save the season.

Defensive issues have been evident for both teams so far in this Series and you have to imagine the Coaches are looking to find a way to earn better control on that side of the court. However, those changes have not been evident so far in this Series and this could be another game that trends over the total line set with the two teams looking to throw enough three pointers to take it over the number.

Both teams have been pretty decent at hitting those three pointers and I think that will be key in this game, while my lean on the spread is very much with the Miami Heat set as a double digit underdog. My reasoning for playing the total points line instead is that the Game 2 here in Milwaukee ended with the Bucks doing enough to win by double digits in a high-scoring game and I will stick with the Offenses coming out on top.

Thursday 27th March

Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Game 6 Pick: They were facing the biggest point spread of the First Round of the PlayOffs in Game 5 and at the start of the Fourth Quarter it looked like the oddsmakers had gotten it right by setting the Atlanta Hawks as a big underdog. They were down double digits during the Quarter, but Trae Young has experienced putting on big displays late in PlayOff games in his relatively young career and decided to put the Hawks on his back.

They needed everything Young could bring and it was his three pointer with seconds remaining that helped the Atlanta Hawks beat the Boston Celtics on the road for the first time this season. That has also drawn the Hawks back into the First Round Series at 2-3 down, while earning the opportunity to return home for at least one more game this season.

Trae Young was needed with Dejounte Murray suspended, but Murray will also be back on Thursday and it feels like the momentum is with the Atlanta Hawks.

However, I am not expecting the defending Eastern Conference Champions to panic too much knowing they had the game in hand and the Hawks needed Young at his inspirational best to turn the game around. The Celtics have very much focused on their own mistakes that meant they failed to build on what had been a big lead during the Fourth Quarter, while the dominance of the Atlanta Hawks for much of the season means Boston will arrive believing they can complete the Series win at the second time of asking.

The two games played in Atlanta have been tough and the Hawks will be playing with momentum and with Murray joining Trae Young back in the line up. It is all encouraging, but I do think the Boston Celtics are the better team and they won't be as undisciplined late in the Fourth Quarter in this one having seen what happened in Game 5.

Add in the fact that teams coming in after a very tight loss have tended to bounce back in the First Round of the PlayOffs in recent times and I do think the Boston Celtics can book their place in the Conference Semi Final Series with the Philadelphia 76ers at the second time of asking. The first game in that Series is set for Monday so the Celtics will be very keen to avoid having to host a Game 7 at home on Saturday and I do think Game 5 was as much to do with the Celtics losing focus as it was with the Atlanta Hawks playing a strong game at the end.

Another high-scoring game is possible, but this time I am looking for the Boston Celtics to be the one making 'ice cold' plays late into the Fourth Quarter to earn their place in the next Round.

Friday 28th April

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Game 6 Pick: The defending Champions looked to be in a precarious position in this First Round Series against Californian rivals Sacramento Kings, but this group of players in the Golden State Warriors locker room have seen it all and done it all before and obviously were very keen on overcoming another challenge.

Winning NBA Championships has become common for the group which has been led by Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but the Warriors had never been 0-2 down in a PlayOff Series. Green himself spoke of the excitement of overcoming a new obstacle and the defending Champions might have broken the back of the Series by winning Game 5 on the road and securing a third straight win.

The key game may have been Game 4 which was won by the Golden State Warriors by a single point when Harrison Barnes missed a buzzer beater that would have given the Kings a 3-1 lead. An injury to De'Aaron Fox had left him Questionable for Game 5, but he played and finished with an inefficient 9/25 day that was not enough for the Kings.

Now they have to try and win a game on the road where the Golden State Warriors have been very strong all season. The road record is not the best, but the win in Game 5 might be key to the entire Series and the Golden State Warriors have won thirteen of their last fourteen games here which just increases the pressure on the Sacramento Kings having missed that huge opportunity to steal a win here in Game 4.

Momentum is with the Warriors now and I am just not sure they are going to be willing to let that go and especially not with all of the PlayOff experience they have.

The Warriors are looking quite dangerous with the way the bracket looks to be opening up for them and I do think the three point shooters will be better at home than they have been on the road in this Series. With De'Aaron Fox banged up, the Kings might feel their opportunity has gone and teams with three wins in a row behind them are tough to oppose, even when it comes to covering the spread like the one in front of the Warriors.

Game 6 road teams have had a good record in recent history in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but the Kings don't have the momentum having dropped three games in a row and I think that plays out here.

I am anticipating another high-scoring game, but Fox is going to have to be a lot more efficient than in Game 5 if the Kings are going to force a Game 7 back at home and I think the back of this Series has been broken by the Golden State Warriors. An experienced team is likely to know that, but the Warriors are unlikely to lose much focus as they look to close out this Series without having to go back out on the road and I think Golden State will win and cover.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 6 Pick: The strong start and a strong finish helped the Memphis Grizzlies overcome a Third Quarter stumble in their vital win over the Los Angeles Lakers to extend this First Round Series to a sixth game. Both teams will be heading back to the City of Angels for this contest on Friday night and it is going to be a massive game for both teams.

Of course the Grizzlies are playing with their back against the wall having slipped into a 1-3 hole, but the momentum is with them after the win in Game 5 and I do think this young roster will be heading to LA with plenty of confidence after the blow out win.

We have seen those wins build momentum for teams in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and the Grizzlies will be hoping that does the same for them as they look to find a way to win a game at the Los Angeles Lakers.

They certainly looked the fresher of the two teams deep in the Fourth Quarter as LeBron James and Anthony Davis played seventy-two minutes combined with the Lakers making one late push to try and get back into Game 5. As the commentators were saying, allowing the Lakers to feel like they could fight back from a huge deficit might actually have worked for the Memphis Grizzlies in having the veterans on the court instead of resting and preparing for Game 6 with just one day between games.

The Lakers have played better after the trade deadline and will point out that they have a perfect record at home in the post-season, although it should be noted that two of the three wins in this Arena have been earned in Overtime. The Game 4 win over the Memphis Grizzlies came courtesy of a game tying bucket from LeBron James with just seconds remaining, but that has yet to break the young Grizzlies team and I do think this has all of the makings of an intense, close game.

Some fatigue could be behind the Lakers three point struggles and the improvement shown by the Memphis Grizzlies from that range in Game 5 could carry over here. It does feel like the Grizzlies will need to shoot well from three point to earn the upset and bring the Series back home over the weekend, but they showed in Game 5 that they could do that.

Los Angeles have had the edge on the boards in the last two games, but not a decisive one and I do think the momentum could have shifted back to the Grizzlies after the way they won the last game.

There is an experience in the Lakers locker room that cannot be ignored, but closing out a Series has historically gotten tougher for teams when going for their second or third attempt at doing so. Game 6 home teams have also had a problem covering the spread in recent First Round Series and I do think the Memphis Grizzlies are in a different spot compared with the Sacramento Kings which makes them more likely to keep this one close.

Memphis just have to make sure they don't get involved in the mind games with LeBron James and company but are focusing on their Basketball. They did that in Game 4 and should have won, but I think the energy and the momentum is with them to keep this one close and potentially force a Game 7 back at home on Sunday.

MY PICKS: 25/04 Denver Nuggets - 9.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

25/04 Los Angeles Clippers + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

26/04 New York Knicks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

26/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

26/04 Milwaukee Bucks-Miami Heat Over 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

27/04 Boston Celtics - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

28/04 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

28/04 Memphis Grizzlies + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs NBA Finals Picks 2022- Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics (June 2-19)

NBA Finals Picks 2022- Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics

When the PlayOff brackets were set several weeks ago, it felt this was the most likely of the NBA Finals and that has come to fruition.

However, there is no doubt that the challenges have been much tougher for the Boston Celtics than the Golden State Warriors with the loaded Eastern Conference meaning three tough opponents were faced.

Of course they needed to win two Game 7s and you do have to wonder if that means the Boston Celtics are battle-hardened or potentially fatigued when it comes to the NBA Finals.

Things went smoothly for the Golden State Warriors and they benefited from the potential problematic opponents falling away before facing the Warriors. With an experienced rotation, the Warriors will be heading into the NBA Finals as the favourites, but this feels like it could be a close Series.

All of the Picks from the NBA Finals will be contained in this one thread with the games to be played between Thursday 2nd June and Sunday 19th June when Game 7 will be scheduled if the NBA Finals needs it.

Thursday 2nd June

Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: This feels like a NBA Finals that does legitimately feature the two best teams we could have seen and I am really looking forward to the Series between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.

Most fans love watching the superstars take over games with their Offensive prowess, but what makes this Series so fascinating is it involves two of the very best Defensive teams in the NBA too. The pressure will be on the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics to try and find a way to show that they can still find the holes on the other team to score the points needed to win each game.

With the Western Conference Finals wrapped up in five games, the Golden State Warriors have had plenty of time to prepare for this opening game of the NBA Finals.

They have clearly been able to use that effectively having had Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr and Andre Iguodala all back from injury ailments and all look to be ready to suit up for this Game 1. It is very important for the Warriors to have these strong Defensive players back in the rotation as they look to hold onto home court advantage and I do think these three will just ease the pressure on the very top players and allow them to play their Offensive basketball with some freedom from working as hard on the other side of the court.

That should mean Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are able to get going, but the Warriors also benefit from having players like Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole who can step up and produce Offensively when the two big stars are being closed down. They are clearly being trusted by the veteran Champions on the roster and that makes Golden State very dangerous and tough to beat.

It has been a relatively easy path for the Golden State Warriors back to the NBA Finals, but there is no doubting how tough the Boston Celtics will feel their own run has made them. After crushing the Brooklyn Nets, Boston have won a Game 7 in both the Conference Semi Finals and Eastern Conference Finals with the wins over the last two Champions of the Eastern Conference backing up their belief.

Like the Golden State Warriors, the Celtics have two standout players in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum and they are going to be the key to any success in the NBA Finals. But also like the Warriors, the Celtics have had some talented role players step up and put up some big points when they have been needed and the likes of Marcus Smart and Al Horford will be vital for the Boston Celtics.

Three point shooting is going to be so important for both teams and it could mean there are some swings in momentum throughout the Finals, but I do think the emotion of another Game 7 could work against the Celtics in Game 1, even having a number of days off since the win over the Miami Heat.

While the Celtics have won some big road games throughout their PlayOffs run, the Golden State Warriors have proven to be very difficult to beat here.

I think that also shows up and home teams are 7-1 against the spread in the last eight Game 1s of the NBA Finals.

Small home favourites have been in a poor run in the NBA Finals, which is a concern when you know how good the Boston Celtics can be, but Golden State have been so strong in Chase Center and they have covered in their last four as the home favourite.

Playing off a Game 7 has been historically tough for teams in Game 1 of the next Series and the Boston Celtics felt that in the Eastern Conference Finals as they were outplayed in the Third Quarter by the Miami Heat in that Game 1 loss. The Celtics have been a road underdog to back throughout their NBA PlayOff run, but I think the Golden State Warriors will have a bit too much in the opening of the NBA Finals and can move into a position to cover.

Boston are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog, but that loss came in Game 1 in the Eastern Conference Finals after the Game 7 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks and I will get behind the Golden State Warriors in the first of the NBA Finals games.

Sunday 5th June

Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: A strong Third Quarter looked to have put the Golden State Warriors in a perfect position to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but not many would have believed what they were about to see in the Fourth Quarter.

The Boston Celtics hit seven straight three-pointers to open the Fourth Quarter as the likes of Derrick White and Al Horford stepped up to make up for the struggling Jayson Tatum and the Celtics overcame a huge deficit to pull away for the road win. Stealing home court may have the Celtics heading into Game 2 with a feeling they are playing with 'house money', but I also think there will be a big reaction from the experienced Golden State Warriors.

You have to wonder if the Celtics can get the same kind of shooting effort for a second game in a row in the NBA Finals having secured 51% of their three pointers being drained. Al Horford, Derrick White, Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard combined for 18/26 from the distance and I do think that is a figure that will be hard to replicate from game to game.

Some of the looks were wide open so you do have to wonder if Steve Kerr and the Warriors are game-planning to live and die by those role players and their shooting hot or cold streaks. Keeping Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown quiet is the most important aspect, but the Warriors have to show a bit more intensity all around as they try and force the Boston Celtics off of the three point arc.

I also have to expect better from the Warriors who did not shoot the ball as well as they would have liked- as strong as the Boston Defensive schemes have been all season, Golden State showed through the first three Quarters of Game 1 that they can find better Offense.

Better ball movement and perhaps looking for a bit more efficiency from Draymond Green and Jordan Poole will be important for the Warriors who also turned the ball over a couple more times than the Boston Celtics in Game 1.

You have to credit the Celtics for the fightback in the opening game of the NBA Finals, but I do think they will find it difficult to win Game 2 here too.

For starters you have to expect the Warriors to come out with more intensity and it could be easy for the Boston Celtics to just ease off the throttle having already stolen home court away from Golden State.

The Warriors are 5-1 against the spread in their last six after a straight up loss and home teams have played well in Game 2 of the NBA Finals in recent seasons.

Boston have shown once again how strong they can be when set as the road underdog and they have been a very strong road team throughout the NBA PlayOffs with an 8-2 record straight up in their ten road games. They have shown they can play and win games as the underdog already and I think they are a dangerous team when at their best.

However, I do also believe the Golden State Warriors have been strong enough at home to expect them to have their chances to bounce back and at least level the Finals before heading across the country to Boston. I expect better three point Defensive efforts and I think the Golden State Warriors can get a little more out of their role players to ensure they avoid another Fourth Quarter spot and are able to cover this time.

Wednesday 8th June

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: At the start of the NBA Finals, the task for the Boston Celtics will have been to try and return home in Game 3 with a split of the first two games and thus taking away home court advantage. A strong Fourth Quarter allowed the Boston Celtics to stun the Warriors by pulling away for a big win in Game 1, but the Celtics may feel they missed a trick to ram home the advantage in Game 2.

The game was a close one until the Third Quarter when the Golden State Warriors went on a very strong run and this time they were not going to let things slip.

You can imagine there was a feeling in the Boston side of the court that they have done their job by the fact they decided to pull their starters early in the Fourth Quarter of Game 2. It means there has been plenty of rest for the team and Boston are returning home to the TD Garden for two games in the knowledge they can take complete command of the NBA Finals.

After a tight opening half, Boston struggled Offensively in Game 2 and they will have to make some adjustments to try and challenge the Golden State Warriors who were not nearly as generous with the spaces allowed for shooting as they were in Game 1. It means the pressure is on Boston to find better looks, but they have been a team who have made the right decisions to turn things back in their own favour following a loss throughout this PlayOff run.

Levelling the NBA Finals will have given Golden State confidence, but they will also feel they still have room for improvement, especially Offensively. Take away the Third Quarter of each of the last two games and the Warriors have been struggling for consistency shooting the ball with Klay Thompson yet to have a big impact in the Finals.

Of course the Warriors have the experience and the quality to believe they will be able to put it all together sooner than later, but both games in these Finals have been decided by the impact of the role players.

That should be the case again in Game 3, but I do like how well the Boston Celtics have played off a loss, while the Golden State Warriors have not been the same team on the road as they have in their own Arena.

Game 3 in the NBA Finals have been dominated by the team that have lost Game 2 in recent seasons with the adjustments that have been made and the Boston Celtics have shown how strong their character is off a straight up loss.

Boston are 12-2 against the spread in their last fourteen games following a straight up loss, while they are also a team that have played well when having significant rest between games.

I will be opposing the sharp players in this one with the early money backing the road team with the points, but I think the zigzag theory applies and the Boston Celtics will be better in Game 3 than they were in Game 2. The Celtics are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five at home against the Warriors and they can make the adjustments needed to win and cover as Boston look to take the lead in the NBA Finals.

Friday 10th June

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics Game 4 Pick: Usually I would write out my thoughts on Game 4 of the NBA Finals much earlier than this, but like so many, I have been keeping an ear out for any news surrounding Steph Curry.

He was injured at the end of Game 3 as the Boston Celtics took some big punches from the Golden State Warriors and did enough to rally for a 2-1 lead in the Finals. Losing would have stung, but losing Steph Curry would be devastating for the Warriors in their bid to once again win the NBA Championship.

While in pain and walking with a limp in the hours after Game 3, Steph Curry has looked to be trending in a positive direction for Golden State and he should suit up. Of course he won't be at 100%, but Curry's presence is key to opening things up for the Golden State Warriors on the Offensive side of the court.

Draymond Green admitted he played 'soft' in Game 3 and the Warriors much vaunted Defensive schemes were ripped apart by the Boston Celtics in the first half and it proved to be too much to overcome. However, Steve Kerr is likely going to make some adjustments like he did in Game 2 and those can at least make things tougher for the Celtics who bounced back from an 88 point effort to score 116 points in their Game 3 win.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both had big games, but they were well backed up by Marcus Smart and it is key for Boston that the former two players and one other is able to step up for them. The Celtics also had solid contributions from Robert Williams III and Al Horford too, while the Warriors are coming in off a game in which the role players struggled to match the intensity and Offensive shooting of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry.

Much will start on the Defensive side of the court for both of these teams in this pivotal Game 4 and this is the shortest rest time between games in the NBA Finals. I expect that to be a factor in this one as the powerful Defenses step up and some fatigue perhaps slows down the Offensive rotations.

As long as the teams don't throw in too many turnovers, the half court Defenses can make life very difficult for the other, while the referees have kept their whistles out of their mouths and allowed much more contact than we are used to in today's NBA. It means the teams are not getting to the Foul Line as much as they may want and that has prevented games being extended and I do think this will be a game that finishes under the total line set.

Game 4s in recent NBA Finals have leaned towards the under, while the sharp money looks to be with this being a lower scoring game than the layers have set. The bets have been split with the lean towards the 'over', but the actual money being put down is heavily skewed towards the 'under' and I am going to be following suit with the total where it is right now.

Monday 13th June

Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After four games of the NBA Finals, there can be no doubt as to how evenly matched the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors have been. Moments within each of the first four games have sparked a surge of Offensive output that has taken one of these teams over the top.

In the two games won by the Golden State Warriors, strong Third Quarters have sparked the turnaround and helped them come from behind twice in the NBA Finals. In Game 4 they showed strong Defensive schemes to force Boston Celtics to go cold from the field, while Steph Curry eased any worries about his injury by hammering the Celtics from the three point range to spark the road win.

The Boston Celtics have dominated the Fourth Quarter in their two wins in this Series, but they went cold at a very bad time in Game 4 just when it looked like they were to take a firm grip of the NBA Finals. Now the road warriors of the NBA PlayOffs have to win at least one more game in San Francisco to have a chance of winning an eighteenth NBA Championship and they have bounced back from setbacks throughout this PlayOff run.

Jayson Tatum has held his hands up and admitted he needs to be better to give the Boston Celtics an opportunity for a road upset. The star player of the team has been outscored by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum has been guilty of some bad turnovers at critical times, which have proved to be costly for the Celtics.

Boston will live and die with the three point shot and they do need a bit more efficiency from Marcus Smart and Al Horford, but they have shown they can recover from losses throughout the second half of the season.

Winning here for a second time will be a big challenge when you think of how strong the Golden State Warriors have been at home in the PlayOff run. The momentum is with the Warriors having won Game 4, but they were not able to build on that after holding the Celtics to 88 points in Game 2 and I do think there is still room for improvement for a team that is being carried by Steph Curry.

Klay Thompson will get his numbers, but the Warriors won Game 4 thanks to big impacts from Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins. I expect the Boston Celtics to make the adjustments to prevent Wiggins having the huge game he produced last time out, while the Golden State Warriors dominated the boards in Game 4 to even up the Finals.

It was a big swing from Game 3 and I expect the Celtics to look for the adjustments to be much more competitive around the boards in this one. That should give the underdog every chance of perhaps winning this one outright or at least make this the most competitive game of the NBA Finals so far.

With a couple of days of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, players should be rested and ready to go and I think there will be a response to the straight loss by the Boston Celtics.

Game 5 home teams who are favoured have really struggled in the NBA Finals in recent years and they have gone 0-4-1 against the spread and four of those teams have lost straight up. Small home favourites have not always been at their best in the NBA Finals and, including those spots with that spread in these Finals, those teams are now 5-10 against the spread in that spot.

This is not a very big spread, but the Boston Celtics have shown their character to rally from setbacks throughout the NBA PlayOffs in 2022 and I think they can do that again.

Thursday 16th June

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics Game 6 Pick: There were absolutely moments in the Third Quarter of Game 5 when it looked like the Boston Celtics had rallied and taken control as they looked to bring a 3-2 lead back to the TD Garden in the NBA Finals. Unfortunately for the Celtics, the Golden State Warriors found some big time shooting from sources other than Steph Curry and it is the Warriors who are now a game away from winning another NBA Championship.

The first half performance from the Boston Celtics was really worrying in Game 5 and they can ill-afford to start that poorly again. Neither team shot the ball that efficiently, but the Celtics scored just 39 points in the first half and that was the main reason they found themselves in a double digit hole.

Role players have to be more efficient with their shooting, but it is going to be a big challenge against the strong Golden State Defensive rotations that have helped the team turn a 1-2 deficit into a 3-2 lead in the NBA Finals. Momentum is firmly with the Warriors and even the big time adjustments made by the Boston Celtics to bounce back from losses throughout this NBA PlayOff run was missing.

We are now in the stage of any Series where teams cannot make as many big adjustments to turn momentum and it firmly comes down to which of these two is able to be most effective as far as execution is concerned.

In the last two games it has been the Golden State Warriors who have found the big shots and the big Defensive efforts at key times to turn those games in their favour and right now I cannot argue against them being able to do the same here.

Golden State have not been as effective on the road as they have been at home in their own run to the NBA Finals, but teams facing elimination in Game 6 of the NBA Finals have gone 1-5 against the spread since 2013. There is a real pressure on the Boston Celtics that cannot be ignored and facing the exit door has proved to be too much for teams to handle in recent Game 6s in the NBA Finals.

It is also difficult to ignore the history of teams playing with momentum going into the final three games scheduled of the NBA Finals. Teams that have won by double digits have gone 7-2-1 against the spread in Games 5 to 7 of the NBA Finals and that includes the Golden State Warriors covering as a 4 point favourite in Game 5 of the 2022 edition of the Finals.

Boston have not shot the ball well as the Warriors have ramped up their Defensive rotations and there has been far too much reliance on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. They combined for 15/38 in Game 5, while the rest of the team were 16/37 and the Celtics need their star players to be more efficient with their shooting.

They also cannot expect another poor Golden State Warriors shooting day having made just 22% of their shots from the three point arc in the last game and I do think this is going to be a close game which makes the points being given to the underdog look appealing.

Factor in how teams have struggled without momentum in the later stages of the NBA Finals as well as those who are bidding to avoid elimination in Game 6 and I have to lean towards the Golden State Warriors with the points in this one.

The reality is we have not had a close game in the NBA Finals yet, but Golden State have the firepower and Defensive intensity to win this one outright and I do think they are being given enough points to make them count even if we have to see the NBA Finals head back to The Bay for a huge Game 7.

MY PICKS: 02/06 Golden State Warriors - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

05/06 Golden State Warriors - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

08/06 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

10/06 Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors Under 214.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/06 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

16/06 Golden State Warriors + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Conference Finals: 9-3, + 5.19 Units (13 Units Staked, + 39.92% Yield)

Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)

First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)