NBA PlayOffs First Round Games 5-7
I can't really have asked for much more through the first four games of each of the First Round Series and the strong start to the PlayOffs are appreciated.
Building on that will be tough with the Conference Semi Final Series around the corner, but first we have to complete the First Round with only the Philadelphia 76ers through to the next Round. I would expect the likes of the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns to join them very soon, while there are a couple of the higher Seeded teams in desperate trouble at 1-3 down.
Things can change quickly in the post-season, but the picture above is just a reminder that you cannot take any of the veteran oddsmakers for granted despite the strong start.
Dillon Brooks has learned not to 'poke the bear' and I am only going to appreciate my start, but not dare to disrespect the lines and where they have been set.
Maintaining a 73% strike rate is virtually impossible, but avoiding a really negative run is the plan to round out the First Round.
Tuesday 25th April
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: Anthony Edwards made it clear that he never wants to be swept in the post-season and the young Minnesota Timberwolves player has done all he can to avoid that fate in the First Round against the Denver Nuggets. They needed Overtime in Game 4, but the Timberwolves have pushed this Series back to Denver, although Minnesota are a significant underdog as they look for at least one more home game.
Some disappointment will have been evident in the Denver locker room after failing to complete the sweep, but the Nuggets have to feel really good about the way they have handled the pressure of being the top Seed in the Western Conference. A much tougher Series is likely to be ahead with the Phoenix Suns in a position to progress and that means the Nuggets will be keen to avoid being dragged into a Game 6 or even a Game 7.
Being back at home should give them the edge to close the door on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who could be without Kyle Anderson in this game. That decision will be made at game time, but I don't think the Nuggets will be overly concerned with the adjustments that will need to be made to close the Series out and I do think they are going to do that on Tuesday.
I expect the Nuggets to double down on their focus to ensure they are not having to travel back to Minnesota, while the Timberwolves would have invested a lot of effort and emotion to merely avoid the sweep.
The first two games in the Series that were both hosted by Denver were dominated by the Nuggets barring one poor Quarter and I do think they are going to be confident in handling the occasion.
Closing a Series is never easy, but the Denver Nuggets have PlayOff experiences that can help settle them. Teams playing at home in Game 5 of the First Round have tended to be a pretty good play to cover the spread in recent seasons and I think the Nuggets have shown they have the intensity at both ends of the court to beat this Minnesota Timberwolves team that have had to work hard to come through the Play In Tournament.
The Timberwolves have suffered two blowout losses in four visits to Denver this season and I think they will come up short against the spread here.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns Game 5 Pick: When the decision was made to pair up Kahwi Leonard and Paul George, it was the clear the Los Angeles Clippers would have been thinking Championship or bust, but they could not have predicted the continued poor health of their two best players. Both are expected to be sitting out this pivotal Game 5 as the Clippers look to extend the First Round Series with the Phoenix Suns.
They have lost three games in a row since upsetting the Suns in Game 1 and the Los Angeles Clippers have struggled to find the shooting to keep up with a Phoenix team rolling behind Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.
Their own trade for Durant looks like bringing the kind of player that can make the difference for a Suns team that came up slightly short when trying to win the NBA Championship two years ago and I do like the way they have played with one another even since KD has been placed in the line up.
Bigger tests await with the Number 1 Seeded Denver Nuggets almost certainly next, but the Phoenix Suns are trying not to overlook the Los Angeles Clippers and instead will be looking to sign this Series off with a home win and avoid having to go back to the City of Angels.
They have been set as a very big favourite to do that and I am expecting the Suns to close the show, but the line does look a wide one. Even without Leonard, who has joined Paul George on the sidelines, the Los Angeles Clippers have shown enough desire to make sure they are competing as hard as they can and that has resulted in a 5 points and 12 point defeat at home.
This line is slightly above the 12 point mark, but the Clippers are expected to empty the tank and they may be able to keep this one within the spread. Blow out winners in the First Round have tended to back that up in their next game and big favourites have also been very effective in recent years in the First Round, but Russell Westbrook will lead the Clippers here and look to show that there is enough pride in the veteran Clippers line up to at least give Phoenix all they can handle.
Russell Westbrook has stepped up when Leonard has gone down, but it is unlikely to be enough to earn a Game 6 back at home. Instead, he can at least make sure the Clippers go down swinging and they can do enough to keep within the line even in a losing effort as Phoenix begin to look ahead to a likely meeting with the Number 1 Seed in the West.
Wednesday 26th April
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: The fan base has been one that has suffered plenty to really believe what some had suggested before a ball had been tipped in this First Round Series, but the New York Knicks are matching up as well as expected against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Splitting two games in Cleveland gave them the edge, but the Knicks have backed that up perfectly by beating the Cavaliers twice at The Garden and are now one win away from a first Series win in ten years.
Things may even be opening up for the New York Knicks to have their best run in a generation with the Number 1 Seed Milwaukee Bucks struggling in a Series of their own, but fans will not be looking past this First Round Series.
One more win is still one more win and this will not come easy for the New York Knicks as they prepare to deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers looking to throw all they can at their opponent and try and push the Series into a Game 6.
The Knicks have the momentum with the back to back wins in the Series, while they have won six of the eight games played between the teams this season. The four games played in Cleveland have been split and the Knicks will have to respect the fact that they were blown out in their last visit to this Arena in Game 2.
Adjustments are going to be made by the Cleveland Cavaliers having struggled in aspects of their play in both the Offensive and Defensive side of the court. Being outplayed on the boards has really hurt the Cavaliers and they need more from Donovan Mitchell, the big off-season trade who was taken from under the noses of the New York Knicks.
Strong Defensive performances have seen the New York Knicks take control of games and I do think they have every chance of winning this game on the road. Momentum and the match up edge which has been evident all season against the Cleveland Cavaliers does give the Knicks a big advantage and I think they can keep this one close, if not win for a second time.
I have to expect better from the Cavaliers back at home, but they have struggled to find the right answers so far in this First Round Series and the New York depth should keep this one competitive.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Pick: Giving up a game-tying field goal with less than a second remaining on the clock and then falling short in the Overtime period would be a tough blow for any team to suffer in the PlayOffs. It becomes much more difficult to absorb when you think the Memphis Grizzlies are now in a 1-3 hole having failed to hold onto a strong lead in the Fourth Quarter.
At the start of the season there were suggestions from the Grizzlies that there was not one team in the Western Conference that they feared would prevent them from playing in the NBA Finals.
Throw in the Dillon Brooks decision to wind up LeBron James and this is a Series that feels like it has gotten out of control for the Grizzlies and the pressure they are under could cause a crack in Game 5 as Memphis look to save the Series. The Brooks behaviour has some reporting that he will be traded out of Memphis in the off-season having upset some within the organisation with his abrasive personality and the overall negativity around the team is a major concern.
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are experienced as the 2020 NBA Champions and they may feel they have broken the back of this Series by fighting back and winning Game 4 in the manner they did.
A balanced Offensive performance is more impressive when you think of how Anthony Davis struggled, and the Lakers may feel this game is a 'free shot' to complete the Series win with a home game to come in Game 6.
They would love to keep the momentum going from the Overtime win and avoid having the stresses of another game in the Series, and the Lakers will feel good about their Defensive performances. The Lakers were able to hold the Memphis Grizzlies to a 9/42 outing from the three point arc in Game 4, although they have struggled from the distance themselves in this Series and that at least gives the Grizzlies a chance of extending this First Round contest.
Nothing will come easy for Memphis after the way the last game ended, but the home crowd will help as they did in Game 2 when bouncing back from an opening defeat in the Series.
Coming back from 1-3 down will not be easy, but the Grizzlies can only take it a step at a time an I think they will have a slight improvement in their three point shooting to edge to a win and a cover of this mark.
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: A returning Giannis Antetokounmpo inspired his Milwaukee Bucks very early in Game 4 as they look to level up the First Round Series, but it also seemed to do the same for Jimmy Butler. A huge Fourth Quarter from the Miami Heat's best player saw them overcome a deficit and beat the Bucks to take a 3-1 lead in the First Round Series and move to one more win away from the upset.
Not many expected the Milwaukee Bucks to have too many issues as the Number 1 Seed playing a team coming out of the Play In Tournament, but the Miami Heat would likely have been their last choice of the four potential opponents. These teams played some close games throughout the regular season and there is no doubting the Miami experience and it has turned out to be the case with the Bucks playing in their first elimination game on Wednesday.
Winning three games in a row is helped by the fact that two of those games will be at home, but the Milwaukee Bucks have not won in Florida yet this season and the Series may have shifted in favour of the Miami Heat.
Despite being banged up, Jimmy Butler is helping the Heat overcome the losses of Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, but asking him to score 56 points every night is simply not possible. An efficient three point shooting day helped the Heat in Game 4, but someone has to step up alongside Butler if Miami are going to move through to the Conference Semi Finals.
Adjustments will need to be made by the Bucks too if they are going to find a way to come back in what would be a really underwhelming end to the season if being eliminated in the First Round. This is a team that has Championship ambitions, but they may feel that Jimmy Butler's performance will not be replicated and that should give them a big edge in this Game 5 as they look to save the season.
Defensive issues have been evident for both teams so far in this Series and you have to imagine the Coaches are looking to find a way to earn better control on that side of the court. However, those changes have not been evident so far in this Series and this could be another game that trends over the total line set with the two teams looking to throw enough three pointers to take it over the number.
Both teams have been pretty decent at hitting those three pointers and I think that will be key in this game, while my lean on the spread is very much with the Miami Heat set as a double digit underdog. My reasoning for playing the total points line instead is that the Game 2 here in Milwaukee ended with the Bucks doing enough to win by double digits in a high-scoring game and I will stick with the Offenses coming out on top.
Thursday 27th March
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Game 6 Pick: They were facing the biggest point spread of the First Round of the PlayOffs in Game 5 and at the start of the Fourth Quarter it looked like the oddsmakers had gotten it right by setting the Atlanta Hawks as a big underdog. They were down double digits during the Quarter, but Trae Young has experienced putting on big displays late in PlayOff games in his relatively young career and decided to put the Hawks on his back.
They needed everything Young could bring and it was his three pointer with seconds remaining that helped the Atlanta Hawks beat the Boston Celtics on the road for the first time this season. That has also drawn the Hawks back into the First Round Series at 2-3 down, while earning the opportunity to return home for at least one more game this season.
Trae Young was needed with Dejounte Murray suspended, but Murray will also be back on Thursday and it feels like the momentum is with the Atlanta Hawks.
However, I am not expecting the defending Eastern Conference Champions to panic too much knowing they had the game in hand and the Hawks needed Young at his inspirational best to turn the game around. The Celtics have very much focused on their own mistakes that meant they failed to build on what had been a big lead during the Fourth Quarter, while the dominance of the Atlanta Hawks for much of the season means Boston will arrive believing they can complete the Series win at the second time of asking.
The two games played in Atlanta have been tough and the Hawks will be playing with momentum and with Murray joining Trae Young back in the line up. It is all encouraging, but I do think the Boston Celtics are the better team and they won't be as undisciplined late in the Fourth Quarter in this one having seen what happened in Game 5.
Add in the fact that teams coming in after a very tight loss have tended to bounce back in the First Round of the PlayOffs in recent times and I do think the Boston Celtics can book their place in the Conference Semi Final Series with the Philadelphia 76ers at the second time of asking. The first game in that Series is set for Monday so the Celtics will be very keen to avoid having to host a Game 7 at home on Saturday and I do think Game 5 was as much to do with the Celtics losing focus as it was with the Atlanta Hawks playing a strong game at the end.
Another high-scoring game is possible, but this time I am looking for the Boston Celtics to be the one making 'ice cold' plays late into the Fourth Quarter to earn their place in the next Round.
Friday 28th April
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Game 6 Pick: The defending Champions looked to be in a precarious position in this First Round Series against Californian rivals Sacramento Kings, but this group of players in the Golden State Warriors locker room have seen it all and done it all before and obviously were very keen on overcoming another challenge.
Winning NBA Championships has become common for the group which has been led by Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but the Warriors had never been 0-2 down in a PlayOff Series. Green himself spoke of the excitement of overcoming a new obstacle and the defending Champions might have broken the back of the Series by winning Game 5 on the road and securing a third straight win.
The key game may have been Game 4 which was won by the Golden State Warriors by a single point when Harrison Barnes missed a buzzer beater that would have given the Kings a 3-1 lead. An injury to De'Aaron Fox had left him Questionable for Game 5, but he played and finished with an inefficient 9/25 day that was not enough for the Kings.
Now they have to try and win a game on the road where the Golden State Warriors have been very strong all season. The road record is not the best, but the win in Game 5 might be key to the entire Series and the Golden State Warriors have won thirteen of their last fourteen games here which just increases the pressure on the Sacramento Kings having missed that huge opportunity to steal a win here in Game 4.
Momentum is with the Warriors now and I am just not sure they are going to be willing to let that go and especially not with all of the PlayOff experience they have.
The Warriors are looking quite dangerous with the way the bracket looks to be opening up for them and I do think the three point shooters will be better at home than they have been on the road in this Series. With De'Aaron Fox banged up, the Kings might feel their opportunity has gone and teams with three wins in a row behind them are tough to oppose, even when it comes to covering the spread like the one in front of the Warriors.
Game 6 road teams have had a good record in recent history in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but the Kings don't have the momentum having dropped three games in a row and I think that plays out here.
I am anticipating another high-scoring game, but Fox is going to have to be a lot more efficient than in Game 5 if the Kings are going to force a Game 7 back at home and I think the back of this Series has been broken by the Golden State Warriors. An experienced team is likely to know that, but the Warriors are unlikely to lose much focus as they look to close out this Series without having to go back out on the road and I think Golden State will win and cover.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 6 Pick: The strong start and a strong finish helped the Memphis Grizzlies overcome a Third Quarter stumble in their vital win over the Los Angeles Lakers to extend this First Round Series to a sixth game. Both teams will be heading back to the City of Angels for this contest on Friday night and it is going to be a massive game for both teams.
Of course the Grizzlies are playing with their back against the wall having slipped into a 1-3 hole, but the momentum is with them after the win in Game 5 and I do think this young roster will be heading to LA with plenty of confidence after the blow out win.
We have seen those wins build momentum for teams in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and the Grizzlies will be hoping that does the same for them as they look to find a way to win a game at the Los Angeles Lakers.
They certainly looked the fresher of the two teams deep in the Fourth Quarter as LeBron James and Anthony Davis played seventy-two minutes combined with the Lakers making one late push to try and get back into Game 5. As the commentators were saying, allowing the Lakers to feel like they could fight back from a huge deficit might actually have worked for the Memphis Grizzlies in having the veterans on the court instead of resting and preparing for Game 6 with just one day between games.
The Lakers have played better after the trade deadline and will point out that they have a perfect record at home in the post-season, although it should be noted that two of the three wins in this Arena have been earned in Overtime. The Game 4 win over the Memphis Grizzlies came courtesy of a game tying bucket from LeBron James with just seconds remaining, but that has yet to break the young Grizzlies team and I do think this has all of the makings of an intense, close game.
Some fatigue could be behind the Lakers three point struggles and the improvement shown by the Memphis Grizzlies from that range in Game 5 could carry over here. It does feel like the Grizzlies will need to shoot well from three point to earn the upset and bring the Series back home over the weekend, but they showed in Game 5 that they could do that.
Los Angeles have had the edge on the boards in the last two games, but not a decisive one and I do think the momentum could have shifted back to the Grizzlies after the way they won the last game.
There is an experience in the Lakers locker room that cannot be ignored, but closing out a Series has historically gotten tougher for teams when going for their second or third attempt at doing so. Game 6 home teams have also had a problem covering the spread in recent First Round Series and I do think the Memphis Grizzlies are in a different spot compared with the Sacramento Kings which makes them more likely to keep this one close.
Memphis just have to make sure they don't get involved in the mind games with LeBron James and company but are focusing on their Basketball. They did that in Game 4 and should have won, but I think the energy and the momentum is with them to keep this one close and potentially force a Game 7 back at home on Sunday.
MY PICKS: 25/04 Denver Nuggets - 9.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
25/04 Los Angeles Clippers + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
26/04 New York Knicks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Milwaukee Bucks-Miami Heat Over 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Boston Celtics - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
28/04 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
28/04 Memphis Grizzlies + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)
