Midweek Football Picks 2018- Europa League Final (May 16th)

Europa League Final 2018- Marseille vs Atletico Madrid

The Europa League Final is played in Lyon, France on Wednesday evening and the most comfortable aspect of the Final for Marseille may be that it is played at a ground they are familiar with.

Ultimately it is no surprise that Marseille are the underdog in the Final against Atletico Madrid who have been set as favourites ever since they dropped out of the Champions League into the Europa League. The early season form which cost Atletico Madrid their place in the Champions League is long gone and they have rounded into strong form and have plenty of European experience to call upon.

Many of these players have been involved in the Atletico Madrid squads who have reached two Champions League Finals in recent seasons and have regularly made the last eight of the Champions League under Diego Simeone. Their charismatic manager is banned from the touchline for the Final, but Atletico Madrid are a well drilled team and that shouldn't be a big problem for a team who beat Arsenal 1-0 at home in the Second Leg with their manager sitting in the stands.

Atletico Madrid remain tough to beat and they are sprinkled with some magic players in forward areas who can create something special to break the deadlock in any game.

It does mean they are the more likely winners despite the strong run Marseille have had in the Europa League especially when you look at the general levels of performance produced by the two teams.

While Atletico Madrid have beaten Copenhagen, Lokomotiv Moscow, Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal, Marseille have beaten Sporting Braga, Athletic Bilbao, Leipzig and Salzburg.

The wins over Athletic Bilbao will give Marseille some real confidence against another Spanish team, but the majority of the best results Marseille have produced in the Europa League have come at home. In fact the win in Bilbao is the only win Marseille have had outside of their own Stadium in 9 Europa League ties and they have lost 5 of their last 7 and all without scoring a goal in normal time.

That has to be a real concern for the fans even if they are likely to have more fans than Atletico Madrid in the stands in Lyon. They are now going up against an Atletico Madrid team who are very tough to break down, although one that didn't have an away clean sheet in their 4 Europa League Knock Out ties.

Out of the two teams I would expect Atletico Madrid to be able to play their more natural game and limit what Marseille are able to do in the final third. Marseille have some quality players and some pace in the final third, but Atletico Madrid are organised and tough to break down when they have something to defend and I think that will be the case on Wednesday in the Final.


With the forward players Atletico Madrid have I think they will find the goal that may be enough to secure the Europa League trophy and backing the Spanish team to win to nil looks a huge price.

MY PICK: Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.87 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Europa League Final Pick 2017- Ajax vs Manchester United (May 24th)

It has been a difficult twenty-four hours in Manchester after the latest act of terror in Western Europe and some of the images have been heartbreaking.

The fact that so many kids were actively targeted is sickening and there are going to be a lot of questions to answer in the coming weeks and months as the authorities get to work in figuring out whether this was a 'lone wolf' issue or something deeper and more threatening.

You've got to feel for the families who have lost loved ones.


Football does take a back seat when things like this happen, but this is part of our lives and we should not allow any set of idiots to dictate the way we should enjoy our lives.

Manchester will be united and will remain strong in the face of what has happened.


This is my thread for the Europa League Final Pick as Ajax get set to take on Manchester United in Stockholm on Wednesday 24th May. I will be in Stockholm and so this will be the featured post until I return on Thursday evening.

Ajax vs Manchester United Europa League Final 2017

Ajax

A young Ajax team have guided their club to the first European Final since playing in the Champions League Final in 1996 and they will believe they have nothing to lose in the Europa League Final. They have fallen short in the Dutch top flight by missing out on the title to Feyenoord, but Ajax have had a whole week to get that disappointment out of the system which should be easy enough when you think of what is coming up for them.

A four time European Cup winning club should not be considered a dark horse for a competition they enter, but things have changed for Ajax with the majority of young Dutch talent moving into the bigger Leagues much earlier than in the past. That made this run to the Europa League Final unexpected and Ajax were considered underdogs in the Quarter Final win over Schalke and in the Semi Final win over Lyon.

Ajax have won 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions, although looking a little further shows they have lost half of their last 6. All of those defeats have come away from the Amsterdam Arena and Ajax have not won any of their last 6 away Europa League games, while they have lost their last 3 in the Knock Out Rounds at Copenhagen, Schalke and Lyon.

Nick Viergever is suspended having been sent off at Lyon in the Semi Final Second Leg.


Expected Ajax Starting Line Up: Onana, Veltman, Sanchez, de Ligt, Riedewald, Schone, Ziyech, Klaassen, Younes, Traore, Dolberg.

Manchester United

At the moment you would probably look at this season and consider it a decent one for Manchester United, but the overall grade is going to depend on whether they can win the Europa League or not. Win the competition and you would consider two trophies and a place back in the Champions League a success, but lose and the English League Cup Final success won't be enough for people to accept the 6th place finish in the Premier League.

Some of the better performances for Manchester United have come in the Europa League this season, but there have been some nerves in the narrow wins over Anderlecht and Celta Vigo in the last two Rounds. Ever since this competition began, Manchester United have been considered the favourites to win it, although that means nothing ahead of the Final in Stockholm.

Manchester United had won none of their 4 games in all competitions since beating Celta Vigo 0-1 in the Europa League Semi Final First Leg, but they did beat Crystal Palace 2-0 to sign off in the Premier League on Sunday. They have only won 1 of their last 5 away games in all competitions, but Manchester United have won 3 of their last 5 on their travels in the Europa League.

Eric Bailly is suspended after being sent off in the Europa League Semi Final Second Leg, while the likes of Marcos Rojo, Luke Shaw and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are long-term absentees.


ExpectedManchester United Starting Line Up: Romero, Valencia, Smalling, Blind, Darmian, Fellaini, Herrera, Pogba, Mata, Mkhitaryan, Rashford.

Ajax vs Manchester United Head to Head

Manchester United and Ajax met in the 1976/77 UEFA Cup and the 2011/12 Europa League and on both occasions Manchester United won the tie on aggregate.


However, the 4 previous matches have been split with both teams winning twice each.

Prediction

The Europa League Final comes from Stockholm on Wednesday and both Ajax and Manchester United have a chance to add silverware to their season as well as earning a spot in the Champions League Group Stage for the 2017/18 season.

It is a match up of the experience of Manchester United against a youthful Ajax side who have played with exuberance and the freedom of inexperience to help them through to the Final. While Manchester United have been winning ties 'professionally', Ajax have looked to push forward and score goals which has left them vulnerable at times.

The Dutch side have also been much stronger at the Amsterdam Arena than they have been on their travels in the Europa League and that could potentially be in play here. While this isn't an official away game, the fact is that Ajax have really enjoyed themselves in their own surroundings and have lost their last 3 Knock Out ties away from home at Copenhagen, Schalke and Lyon.

The inexperience which has seen Ajax play with an attacking verve akin to what Monaco have produced in the Champions League has almost caught them out in the last two Rounds of the Europa League. They were fortunate to beat Schalke in extra time in the Quarter Final and Lyon almost came all the way back from 5-1 down on aggregate in falling short 4-5 in their Semi Final.

Monaco ended up finding the defensive shape and strength of Juventus too much in their Champions League Semi Final and I can see Manchester United and Jose Mourinho try to do the same to Ajax in the Final of the Europa League. The defensive shape from Manchester United has been decent for the most part this season and Mourinho will most certainly feel Manchester United will create chances with the quality they do bring in the final third.

They have played really well away from Old Trafford in the last couple of Europa League ties, far better than they have in Manchester in those Rounds. With the quality and pace Manchester United can provide in this one in the final third, I do think they can create chances against an Ajax defence that has been vulnerable away from the Amsterdam Arena.

Don't be surprised at all to see goals in this one as Ajax won't be afraid to send a lot of men forward even if they are chasing the game. The youngsters will have plenty of pace and energy themselves to give Manchester United some problems too, especially with the defensive injuries they are dealing with, and Ajax will create their own chances.


I do think there will be goals and Manchester United might be very dangerous on the counter attack as long as they can show some of the clinical finishing that has been lacking at times. Ajax won't ever give this one up, but I think they could be undone one more time late in the game as Manchester United kill them off and win the one trophy that has been missing off their 'Roll of Honour'.

I will look for Manchester United to win this game and I will also have a separate pick on there being at least three goals shared out between these clubs in what could be a very entertaining Europa League Final.

MY PICKS: Manchester United @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ajax-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Europa League Final 2015- Dnipro v Sevilla (Wednesday 27th May 2015)

The defending Champions of the Europa League have managed to negotiate another tricky draw to return to the Final which is played in Warsaw on Wednesday evening, and Sevilla will be a big favourite to win the title and earn their place in the Champions League next season.

While Sevilla were always amongst the favourites to win the Europa League, their opponents have had something of a Cinderella story to reach the Final as Dnipro beat favoured opposition in each of the knock out stages of the competition. The Semi Final win over Napoli was arguably the biggest surprise as Dnipro showed off all of their defensive steel to beat the Italians 2-1 on aggregate.

The Europa League Final of recent years has been a really competitive contest and it will be interesting to see the attack of Sevilla versus the defence of Dnipro to see who comes out on top.

Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk

It had already been a special season for Dnipro in European football as they surpassed their club's previous best of a Quarter Final appearance before surprisingly knocking out Napoli to reach the Final of the Europa League in Warsaw. Not many would have picked Dnipro to reach the Final ahead of Napoli, while the club have won less than half of their games in this competition but still managed to reach the last stage.

This will be a familiar position for Dnipro as there won't be too many people outside of their locker room that feels they can win the Europa League against the defending Champions. That lack of confidence is likely to be underlined by the fact that Dnipro produced their winning performances at home and actually won just 1 of 8 games outside of the Ukraine in the Europa League.

Dnipro will be looking at this as a big chance for their team to earn a spot in the Champions League as they go into the final weekend of the Ukrainian season 2 points behind Shakhtar Donetsk for one of those positions. They did beat Shakhtar Donetsk 3-2 at home last weekend, but that was only their second win in their last 6 games in all competitions. Dnipro have won none of their last 3 away games in all competitions.

Sevilla

This is the final week of the season for Sevilla who began it with two chances to reach the Champions League next season- the first of those was extinguished in the Spanish top flight on Saturday despite Sevilla's 2-3 win at Malaga and now their only chance to get to eat at the main table in European football will be if they retain the Europa League they won on penalties last season.

The form in the Europa League certainly makes Sevilla the favourites to win on Wednesday in Warsaw as they won 8 of their last 9 ties in the competition. That included a comfortable 5-0 win over Fiorentina in the Semi Final and the experience of winning the Europa League last year could also play a big part in dealing with nerves and any doubts that the Sevilla players may feel.

Sevilla's form in the Europa League is one thing, but they have also only lost 1 of their last 21 games in all competitions and go into the Final having won 4 of their last 5 games since that defeat to Real Madrid at home. They are not afraid of playing away from home either as Sevilla have won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions and are unbeaten in 11 games on their travels.

Prediction

Winning a big European trophy will obviously create some tension, but adding the Champions League as a prize for the winner might only make this more of a nervy Final than usual. The Europa League Final has been closely fought in recent years and this has all the makings of another closely run contest between two teams that perhaps like to play their football in different ways.

Dnipro have ground their way through to the Final even though they have won less than half of their Europa League games. They have looked to sit on a solid foundation which makes them hard to beat, but they also have some players capable of producing a moment of magic at the other end of the field which has led to a number of 1-0 wins at home.

On the other hand, Sevilla will look to play some attacking football and keep their opponent on the back foot so the styles should gel. Sevilla will be feeling the pressure having failed to finish in the top four in Spain last weekend and being the favourites means the expectation is greater than even last year when they faced Benfica who were considered more on the same level as the Spanish side.

This time most will believe Sevilla are clearly the better team and that expectation can force mistakes or nerves to play a real part in the Final. You would think Sevilla will be tough to pull back if they score first as a chasing Dnipro side could be caught on the counter-attack.

Then again, a first goal for Dnipro would mean the Ukrainian team can sit back and constrict the space that Sevilla will want to thrive upon.

These attack versus defence games can be intriguing to watch, but the tension will only increase as the game goes on if we don't get to see an early goal. The Europa League Finals have seen 3 of the last 6 go into extra time including last season when Sevilla needed penalties to see off Benfica. If you consider the Chelsea Europa League Final win in 2013 also came courtesy of a 93rd minute winner for the Blues, you can appreciate that these Finals tend to be very close.

I can see this one going along the same lines as Sevilla try to produce something magical to win the game- both teams might just play a little more cautious if this one is level with twenty minutes to go and it might take time to break down the other. I think Sevilla are the more likely winners, but they might have to wear down Dnipro over 120 minutes and wait for the victory for the second season in a row.

Backing the Spanish club to win this one in extra time looks a big price and worthy of a small interest.

MY EUROPA LEAGUE FINAL PICK: Sevilla Win in Extra Time @ 9.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

May Update: 10-18, - 11.46 Units (52 Units Staked, - 22.04% Yield)

April Final: 18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)