College Football Bowl Games Picks Part 1 2020 (December 21-30)

In each of the last couple of seasons I have decided to split the Bowl Games thread in half because of the huge amount of games we get at this time of the season.

I am doing the same this year, although we don't have the same amount of Bowl Games as usual- at least this way the Bowl thread is not overloaded.

There are some big games to come, but it is going to be difficult to really nail down the motivation of teams with so many withdrawing from being selected and players also deciding, once again, that they would rather prepare for the NFL Draft than play in a Bowl Game.

This thread will not cover the College Football PlayOffs, but those should be the opening picks from the Part 2 thread which should be ready to go next week.

North Texas Mean Green vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Pick: There hasn't been a lot of time between the Bowl Games announcement and the first of the games to be played, but both the Appalachian State Mountaineers and the North Texas Mean Green will be happy to be playing in the post-season. While some teams have decided they don't wish to play in the post-season, these two teams will be happy to be here.

The Mountaineers are a big favourite having finished the season with a 8-3 record compared with the Mean Green who are below 0.500 at 4-5.

There is also an additional factor that North Texas will be missing their best Receiver Jaelon Darden and this is going to make it very difficult for the underdog to keep up with the Mountaineers. Even with Darden it would have been a challenge for the Mean Green to throw the ball against the Mountaineers Secondary which has been very strong defending the pass all season.

I do think North Texas could have some success running the ball, but there will be times when they are stuck in third and long spots and without their star Receiver I do think there will be an inconsistency that can't be ignored. The Mountaineers don't have the best pass rush so I do think North Texas will have time to make their throws down the field, but converting third downs regularly may be beyond them.

Moving the chains is not really going to be as much of a problem for the Appalachian State Mountaineers Offense especially as a run first team are ready to go up against the Mean Green Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run all season. There are some Senior players looking to put up one more big effort for Appalachian State who have won all five previous Bowl Games played and I do think the Mountaineers should be in a strong position for a rare cover in 2020.

They have been ripping off big gains running the ball and in their last three games North Texas have allowed an average of over 300 yards per game on the ground. That can't be ignored and it should mean Appalachian State are comfortable getting their Offensive unit rolling in the manner they would be looking for.

Zac Thomas may not be asked to do a lot of throwing, but play-action could open up the field if North Texas are not able to make any plays at the line of scrimmage. The Quarter Back has not been given the best protection, but the Mountaineers being able to run the ball just slows down any pass rush and it should mean Appalachian State are in a position to rack up the points.

I will admit that Appalachian State do not have a very good record against the spread when it comes to be favoured, but that is balanced out by how poorly North Texas have done as an underdog. The Mean Green are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog in a Bowl Game and I do think the limited time to prepare for the game will favour Appalachian State whose normal Offensive schemes should be too much for North Texas to keep up with on the scoreboard.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Tulane Green Wave Pick: Both of these teams playing in the Idaho Potato Bowl have finished the season with six wins, although the Tulane Green Wave needed to win three non-Conference games to finish with a 6-5 record. The Nevada Wolf Pack were not able to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, but their 6-2 record deserves some respect even if it was all within the Conference.

That does raise some questions as to the quality of the opponents that the Wolf Pack have faced as they finished as one of four teams that had a winning record. A defeat to eventual Conference Champions San Jose State Spartans and another to the 4-4 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are counter balances to the one win Nevada have had against a team with a winning record.

They are facing a Tulane Green Wave team who have not really found the consistency they would have wanted in 2020, but who look like they could potentially match up well with Nevada.

As with some many American Football games, the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball are going to be hugely important and that is where Tulane look to have an edge over Nevada. The Green Wave are able to run the ball effectively and I do think the Wolf Pack Defensive Line will have issues slowing down the ground game which brings them balance Offensively.

Tulane should be able to run the ball and that should set them up to attack the Nevada Secondary which have given up some big plays in recent games. If the Green Wave are attacking them from third and short down and distance I do think Tulane will be able to have plenty of successes Offensively and a team averaging over 35 points per game will be difficult to slow down.

Controlling the line of scrimmage with the Tulane Defensive Line is also going to have a big impact on this game and there is some real talent in that unit, especially at this level. No one will doubt that Nevada can run the ball efficiently, but that is going to be much more difficult against a Tulane Defensive Line holding teams to 3.9 yards per carry across their last three games and that will put pressure on Carson Strong at Quarter Back.

Carson Strong has had a very good season where he has thrown 22 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions and if this game had taken place a few weeks ago you might think he could have another good showing. He has some quality Receiving options to target, but the Tulane Secondary have really ramped up their play after a slow start to 2020 and that could at least slow one or two drives.

Stalling them and forcing Nevada to settle for Field Goals or Punts will give Tulane a significant edge in the game. Stopping the run will also mean the Green Wave pass rush is able to get after the pass protection issues Nevada's Offensive Line have had in recent games and that is another way to rush Carson Strong and maybe lead to the Tulane Secondary continuing their strong showing of turning the ball over.

You can't really predict when a turnover will come, but over the course of the season Tulane have been better at creating them than Nevada and earning an extra possession or two will certainly give the favourite an edge.

Both teams have strong trends to protect, but I do think Tulane might be the better team and winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball should give them enough of an edge to win and cover.

BYU Cougars vs UCF Knights Pick: The 10-1 BYU Cougars took a risk by taking on another unbeaten team at short notice in the regular season to improve their Bowl standings. The narrow loss to Coastal Carolina hurt the Cougars who had been a big favourite as an Independent, but they will still be happy enough to be involved in the post-season and with a chance to finish the year before Christmas Day.

They have been paired up with the UCF Knights who had won at least ten games in each of the previous three seasons, but who finished up with a 6-3 record in 2020. The Knights have won two of their last three Bowl Games, but this is a season where they have struggled as they have been beaten by the three teams who finished above them in the American Athletic Conference.

The Bowl Game is being played closer to the Knights home than the Cougars, but BYU are very happy to get to a warmer climate even for a few days.

Dillon Gabriel and the Knights Offensive unit have been piling up the yards throughout the season, and that will always give them a chance in any game they play. It says something that their three defeats came by a combined 12 points and Gabriel is motivated as his father used to have a real rivalry with the Cougars in his own playing days.

That is something Gabriel has mentioned as soon as the Bowl Games were announced this past week and the Knights should find the balance to at least keep the strong Cougars Defense guessing somewhat. It is a shame that Marlon Williams, the top UCF Receiver has withdrawn from the Bowl Game, but Dillon Gabriel should still have some success as long as the Knights Offensive Line can open up some holes to keep the team in front of the chains.

Throwing the ball against the Cougars Secondary will be a challenge though and players will have to step up to cover for the absence of Williams.

It is an absence which could shift the balance to the Cougars who look to have a lot more balance Offensively than the Knights. While they should be able to run the ball very efficiently, the Cougars are also throwing into a Secondary which has struggled to contain the pass for much of the season.

BYU's Offensive Line looks more capable of opening up big holes against the Knights Defensive Line than we are likely to see on the other side of the ball. That should offer Zach Wilson a chance to have another big game having thrown for over 300 yards in the last game which secured the Cougars their double digit win season.

Zach Wilson is attacking a Knights Secondary which have given up some big yards through the season and running the ball should ease the UCF pass rush too. That gives the Cougars an edge in this game and one where they can pull away for the victory even in conditions that may favour UCF a little more.

The Knights record as an underdog is impressive and dampens some enthusiasm for the BYU Cougars, but I think the latter look to have the balance which should give them the edge in this game. The spread has moved, which I believe is down to the absence of Marlon Williams, but I still think the BYU Cougars can be backed to cover here.

Houston Cougars vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Pick: With a huge number of teams deciding that they will not want to be selected for a Bowl Game this season it has meant that the selection eligibility was changed for the 2020 season. It has been a difficult year for so many and that has meant two teams who have not won more than four games this season will be meeting in Texas.

This is a short journey for the Houston Cougars, but the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will be playing a Bowl Game on the mainland for just the third time in the history of the school. The Rainbow Warriors will be looking to mark a season with a winning record, while the Houston Cougars need to win this Bowl Game to return to 0.500, although Houston have lost their last three Bowl Games.

It will be the second time these schools are meeting in a Bowl Game, although there is no familiarity with one another since the last one was back in 2003. That saw the Rainbow Warriors narrowly beat Houston on home soil, but they are considered a big underdog in this one.

Momentum looks to be with the Rainbow Warriors who have won two of their last three, while the Cougars have lost three of their last four. However, there is no less motivation on either sideline and it should be a good game to watch ahead of Christmas Day.

I am surprised by the amount of points Hawaii are getting in this Bowl Game, although I think it is partly down to the fact they are making a long journey to Texas to take part. That could fatigue some of the players and the staff, especially as they won't have had a lot of time to settle in during the Covid-19 crisis that so many are dealing with and it may be a reason to believe Houston can wear down this opponent.

Both teams should be able to run the ball very effectively though and with that in mind I am expecting this to be a competitive game that may go all the way down to the wire. Neither Defensive Line has shown much ability to clamp down on the run and that should mean we have a game that sees the clock running very quickly and Houston may not have enough possessions to cover a double digit spread.

The feeling is that the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have a better passing Offense than the Cougars, but the Houston pass rush is more effective than their counterparts to balance that out. Even then I think both teams can find some balance Offensively which will make them very difficult to slow down and a potentially high-scoring game could be won by either team.

Again that makes the points on offer for the Rainbow Warriors look very appealing here and this could honestly come down to the bounce of the ball as to which team will win. Turnovers are important in any game, but in this one they could be vital in deciding which of these teams win.

Neither team has any strong trend to lean on.

In my opinion only the long journey to Texas will be going against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and I think they can make use of the points to keep this one competitive at the very least.

Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd Pick: The starts that both of these teams made this season would have had them hoping they would be playing in a bigger Bowl Game than this one. However the Marshall Thundering Herd finished up with a 7-2 record after a surprising upset loss to the UAB Blazers in the Conference-USA Championship Game, while the Buffalo Bulls could not complete an unbeaten season when upset in the MAC Championship Game as a big favourite.

There should be a motivation to bounce back and at least end this season with a positive result in the Bowl Game, although Marshall have lost twice in a row heading into the post-season.

One of the main concerns for the Thundering Herd has to be the performance of the Defensive Line in the last game. For much of the season Marshall's Defensive Line have clamped down on the run and forced teams to beat them through the air, but the Blazers were able to pile up the numbers on the ground and now they are faced with an extremely strong running game that has been put together by the Buffalo Bulls.

Winning at the line of scrimmage is going to be the big challenge for both of these teams when Buffalo have the ball Offensively, but the Thundering Herd could be fortunate in not having to deal with Jaret Patterson. The Buffalo Running Back has had a massive season, but he picked up an injury a week ago in the Championship Game and, while Patterson does want to go in the Bowl Game, he could be limited at best and perhaps out altogether.

I still think the Bulls Offensive Line will open up some holes for whoever is carrying the ball, but Patterson is a special player and not having him at 100% is a big blow for the favourites.

It could mean having to lean on a passing game which has not developed to the same level as the run and that should offer the Thundering Herd Defensive unit an opportunity to make some big plays on Christmas Day.

Marshall look like they can find a better balance Offensively than the Bulls and that could be key to perhaps earning the upset in this game. It has not been easy to run the ball against the Bulls Defensive Line, but Brenden Knox has been a strong Running Back in his time with Marshall and will be expected to hit one or two holes up front that open up the passing game.

There are some areas of the Buffalo Secondary which can be exposed in the passing game, although much will depend on Marshall's Offensive Line and whether they can offer the protection to Grant Wells to give him the time to make those plays. Grant Wells has to be careful when it comes to the Interceptions that could turn the game in favour of Buffalo, but if the Thundering Herd find a balance Offensively they can keep this close.

The Bulls are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the favourite on a neutral field, while Marshall are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight Bowl Games. The Thundering Herd are also 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen games as the underdog and I think the points could be valuable in this Bowl Game.

Georgia State Panthers vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick: A late season surge has taken the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to the brink of at least finishing the year with a 0.500 record, but they will need one more win to do that. The Hilltoppers have won three games in a row, but they are the underdog in this Bowl Game against the Georgia State Panthers who need a win to finish with a winning season and who are playing their third post-season game in four seasons.

There will be some revenge on the mind of some of the players at Western Kentucky considering they were beaten by Georgia State in a Bowl Game in 2017. On that day the Panthers were the underdog, but the situation has switched in 2020.

While the Hilltoppers have shown improvement down the stretch, the Georgia State Panthers will be no less confident having won three of their last four games. Over the course of the season the Panthers have shown more consistency than the Hilltoppers, but recent games suggest this has the makings of a very close contest.

For starters Georgia State have had almost a month off from play and that could leave them a little out of rhythm which is going to be a big challenge on both sides of the ball. Offensively the Panthers are going up against an improved Western Kentucky Defensive unit and this is a Defensive Line which can clamp down on the run and that is going to at least force Georgia State to become one-dimensional.

Cornelious Brown IV is the Quarter Back for the Panthers and he has continued to produce some huge yards in the air which will encourage the favourites. However Brown IV is going to be throwing into a Secondary which have really improved their numbers down the stretch and a Defensive Line which brings a pass rush that is going to make him speed up his decision making when he does have to drop back to throw.

If the Hilltoppers are able to shut down the run, Cornelious Brown IV will be needing time for Receivers to get down the field and at least move the chains, but that will be the big test for him. He has been guilty of some inaccuracy, although the Western Kentucky Secondary have not been turning the ball over with Interceptions as much as they would like.

There will be some questions about whether the favourites will be able to have consistent Offensive success and so the opportunity is there for Western Kentucky to earn the upset.

Having a dual-threat Quarter Back will give the Hilltoppers an opportunity to find a bit of balance Offensively that will at least keep the Panthers Defensive unit honest. Like Western Kentucky, Georgia State have been very good in the Secondary when it comes to defending the pass, but there have been one or two more holes on the Defensive Line which could allow the Hilltoppers to be ahead of the chains at least.

The Panthers pass rush is very effective and that could be a difference maker when it comes down to deciding a winner, but I do think this is a very close game. Having the hook through a key number is a potential importance in the contest and that is where the underdog has to be the team to back in what looks a close, low-scoring game.

Western Kentucky have long been a very good underdog to back against the spread and I will back the Hilltoppers to at least cover in a game that could be decided by a Field Goal either way. That makes the hook especially important here.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs Liberty Flames Pick: These two teams are a combined 20-1 in 2020 and they have had a number of upsets to get into this position in what has been stellar years for the schools. The unbeaten Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 11-0 and may have been hoping that would be good enough to earn a really big Bowl spot, but losing the Championship Game to Covid-19 might have adversely affected their chances.

That Sun Belt Conference Championship Game may not have been given huge respect by the Bowl Game selectors, but it would have at least underlined how well Coastal Carolina have played this season. This is already a memorable season for the players who have taken the Chanticleers to a Bowl Game for the first time and the team are one of just five who have yet to lose a game in 2020.

On the other side of the field the Liberty Flames have finished with a 9-1 record as an Independent and the upset wins over Western Kentucky and Virginia Tech should mean there is no fear going in against an unbeaten opponent. The work Hugh Freeze has done as Head Coach of Liberty has not been ignored by anyone in College Football and some feel this may be his last game here before moving to a Power 5 School.

Hugh Freeze will want his team to finish with a flourish and produce a double digit win season which would have exceeded all expectations.

A dual-threat Quarter Back will make Liberty very dangerous and there have been signs that the Chanticleers Defensive unit have just worn down in games down the stretch. Malik Willis should be able to attack the Secondary and also work behind the Flames Offensive Line to move the ball down the field on the ground.

Any time a team can find an Offensive balance they will be difficult to stop and Coastal Carolina have not been able to stop the run in their most recent games. With the Flames likely to be in front of the chains when they do have the ball, Malik Willis should have a strong game throwing the ball too with some serious holes in the Chanticleers Secondary which can be exposed.

Malk Willis should have time to make his decision to run or throw the ball, but he has to be wary of Interceptions with turnovers likely to be a big factor in this game.

While Liberty will have some balance Offensively, it has been the key for Coastal Carolina all season to produce their 11-0 record in the regular season. The Chanticleers Offensive Line have been able to help produce some huge rushing yards for the team, but Liberty have to have faith in a Defensive Line which has restricted teams to 128 yards per game on the ground and at 4 yards per clip.

Grayson McCall has also had a very strong season at Quarter Back for Coastal Carolina and he will be expected to make some big plays for his team. He should be able to have some success against the Flames Secondary despite how well Liberty have played throughout the course of the season, especially as McCall is likely to have time to make the right decisions.

The Quarter Back has largely looked after the ball, but it will be the challenge to do the same against the Flames Secondary which has picked up some Interceptions. However I do think Coastal Carolina are going to be able to move the chains too and this feels like a very close game.

With that in mind I do think the amount of points being given to Liberty is too much and you can still pick them up with over a Touchdown start. Both teams have over-performed this season and that means they have both put together some strong trends against the numbers, but I do think this will be competitive down to the end and there is also a big potential for Liberty to earn a backdoor cover at the very least.

Miami Hurricanes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: Both the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Miami Hurricanes would have been hoping for stronger 2020 seasons that may have offered up a bigger Bowl Game than this one. However both should be motivated to round off the season with a victory, although both are already guaranteed to finish up with a winning record regardless.

Like many teams not involved in the College Football PlayOffs, the Cowboys and Hurricanes have seen some top NFL Draft prospects decide they will skip the Bowl Game to prepare for life in the professional ranks. That means both teams are losing key figures in this one with Oklahoma State down Chuba Hubbard and Miami missing big time Defensive Ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche and it could be a vital factor in the outcome of the game.

The Hurricanes are looking to bounce back from a blow out loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels, while the Oklahoma State Cowboys have split their last six regular season games as both teams missed out on Conference Championship Games.

Even though Chuba Hubbard is out, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have been able to fill in at Running Back and they should be able to do that here. Over their last three games the Miami Hurricanes have given up some huge yards on the ground and the Defensive Line has been weakened by the absences of Phillips and Roche which suggests the Big 12 team will be able to put up some huge yards in this one.

The Cowboys have shown they can manage to do that without Hubbard and I do think they will be in front of the chains Offensively which can open things up for Spencer Sanders who has had an inconsistent season at Quarter Back. Running the ball should slow down the Hurricanes pass rush which is missing those Defensive Ends mentioned, while Sanders is capable of moving the ball with his legs as well as his arm.

I do think Oklahoma State will be able to move the ball with some consistency as any team that establishes the run is capable of doing, but it will be more difficult for the Miami Hurricanes. While there have been some signs of wear and tear on the Cowboys Defensive Line, the Hurricanes have not been dominating at the line of scrimmage and there is every chance Oklahoma State can make some plays to clamp down on the run.

D'Eriq King at Quarter Back has to be respected though with the former Houston Cougar coming in off another strong season. His dual-threat from the Quarter Back position makes him dangerous and I do think King will have success throwing against this young Oklahoma State Secondary that has given up some big plays down the field. If Miami are not running the ball as they like, King will still show off his talent to keep the chains moving although it does also mean he will be facing a fierce Cowboys pass rush that should win at the line of scrimmage.

That is the best way to stall some drives by hitting the Quarter Back or making his rush his throws and I think it is the reason the Cowboys will find a way to win this Bowl Game.

Miami have a strong record as an underdog when it comes to the spread, but they are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine Bowl Games. On the other hand, Oklahoma State tend to be well Coached for these post-season games and have covered in four in a row in Bowl Games and I do think the Cowboys can be backed here.

Texas Longhorns vs Colorado Buffaloes Pick: There won't be much of a journey to be made for the Texas Longhorns who have a winning record, but will look back at 2020 with some regret. Tom Herman looked to be in the firing line and about to be outed as the Head Coach of the Longhorns, but the players have continued to play hard for him and that has seen Texas finish well and looking for another Bowl Game success.

There is plenty of experience in the Texas camp when it comes to the extra practices that come with a Bowl appearance, but the same can't be said for the Colorado Buffaloes who have a 4-1 record in 2020. The Buffaloes would have played in the Pac-12 Championship Game if another cancellation hadn't been needed in that Conference in 2020, but they are looking to bounce back from a blow out loss to the Utah Utes.

It has been some time since the Buffaloes have played in a Bowl Game, while they will be motivated to win a first post-season game since 2004. That excitement to perform in the post-season should make the Buffaloes dangerous, but there is a talent difference between these teams and Colorado have not run into any Ranked teams before facing Texas here.

The feeling is that the Buffaloes don't really match up very well with the Longhorns on the Offensive side of the ball and that could be an issue for them. While Colorado will want to run the ball first and then throw, the Longhorns Defensive Line has been able to at least clamp down up front while the Secondary have given up the yards.

A lack of experience has to be a slight concern for Colorado too, although that youthful exuberance could see them make more plays than you might anticipate. With that in mind I do think Colorado will have some success on the ground, while they will have time to throw the ball down the field against Texas, although I am not sure they can do it consistently to score enough points to challenge the Longhorns.

Sam Ehlinger would have been hoping to have had a bigger 2020 considering his experience as the starting Quarter Back in Texas, but he has not really been supported as well as he would have liked. The numbers have remained strong, but in this one Ehlinger may be looking to use his legs more than his arm.

He is capable of running the ball from Quarter Back, but Ehlinger may also be able to hand the ball off and see the Longhorns Offensive Line open up some big holes in the running game. Colorado's Defensive Line have struggled up front and Texas should be able to impose themselves on this game which will put them in a strong position to win this game.

Running the ball should slow the Colorado pass rush considerably, and I do think it will give the Longhorns the chance to prolong drives and eventually force the Buffaloes into throwing the ball more than they are comfortable doing. It should give the Longhorns the chance to pull clear for the win here and extend their run of Bowl Game successes under Head Coach Tom Herman.

Texas have some strong numbers against the spread when it comes to the neutral field games and playing those from outside the Big 12 and I think they can cover even with some key players missing as they prepare for the NFL Draft.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Wisconsin Badgers Pick: The winner of this Bowl Game is going to be able to end 2020 on a high as it would secure a winning season for the year and I expect that to bring some motivation to the field. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Wisconsin Badgers have both been inconsistent to say the least and I do think the Badgers have more to prove after coming up short in their bid to play in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Wisconsin have not been helped with Covid-19 outbreaks that have prevented momentum being picked up, but they did at least finish the regular season with a win.

A big part of the problem for Wisconsin is the lack of consistency Offensively which has meant the Defensive unit has been under pressure to keep them in games. That may not be the case in this Bowl Game if the Wake Forest Defense plays to a similar level as they have shown for much of the season and I do expect the Badgers to have a better day all around when they have the ball in their hands.

Most teams have found a healthy balance against the Demon Deacons Defensive unit with an ability to run the ball and throw the ball against them. While we have not seen that consistently from the Wisconsin Badgers, I do think they should be able to have more success here even with the relatively poor showings we have seen for much of the season.

One problem that looks to have been resolved is the status of Quarter Back Graham Mertz who was knocked out of the final regular season game but has had some time to recover ahead of the Bowl Game. It is important for Mertz who will be expected to take the next step in his development next season and I think he can show off some of the talent against a vulnerable Wake Forest Defense.

The Defensive play has meant Wake Forest have had to take more risks Offensively to try and stay in games and we should see some of that here. However they are facing a tough Badgers Defensive unit which has prided itself on clamping down on the run and then forcing mistakes in the passing game.

Running the ball will be all the more difficult for the Demon Deacons when you think Kenneth Walker III will be missing having opted out of the post-season. The passing numbers have been strong mainly because the team have had to throw the ball to stay in games, but the Wisconsin Secondary have made big plays throughout the season and I think they are going to be able to do the same here which will give the favourites a real edge.

Wisconsin have not been a very good favourite to back in recent times and Wake Forest have excelled in the role of an underdog. That has to be a concern backing against the Demon Deacons, but they are arguably missing their best players on either side of the ball which should give the Badgers the chance to dominate the line of scrimmage and which should mean they have a real edge in the game.

It is a big mark, make no mistake about that, but Wisconsin should control the time of possession and grind down Wake Forest before a couple of late scores take them over the line.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators Pick: This is a game that would not have been that out of place in the College Football PlayOff and I very much believe it would have been part of that post-season if the field had been extended to six or eight teams. The Oklahoma Sooners have long known they are unlikely to be selected for the PlayOffs having made a really slow start to the season, but they rallied to win the Big 12 Championship again and will believe 2021 is going to be a much bigger year for them.

On the other side of the field are the Florida Gators who came up short in the SEC Championship Game, but gave Alabama all they could handle in that game. Dan Mullen has to be given credit for the way he has had the Gators playing this season, but the post-season is not as valuable to the players as it would have been if they had made the PlayOffs.

While those attending will be highly motivated, it can't be ignored that the Gators are missing their top three Receivers as well as Tight End Kyle Pitts and that is going to mean Quarter Back Kyle Trask is likely to have a tough day. He should still be able to make plays thanks to the schemes that the Gators will put together, but the Oklahoma Sooners Defensive unit have been a strength of the team and they will believe taking on the second and third string choices for the Gators gives them an advantage.

It may all come down to how well Trask throws the ball because the Sooners have been able to clamp down on the run and Florida have not moved the ball behind their Offensive Line. I expect Kyle Trask to show why he had such a strong season, but he will also be under intense pressure from the Oklahoma pass rush and has to be wary of the play-making ability of the Sooners Secondary.

Kyle Trask was really a surprise this season, but the Oklahoma Sooners always knew what they had in Spencer Rattler even if he made a slow start as he found experience at this level. Now he is looking like the player that so many believed he would be and Rattler will have a chance to showcase that talent to a wider audience when taking on a SEC Defensive unit.

Like his counterpart, Spencer Rattler is not expected to have a lot of support from the running game, but he should have a chance to get into the Florida Secondary which gave up some big plays in the final two games played. He will have to watch out for the Gators pass rush, but Rattler has been careful with the ball and Florida have not created the same kind of turnovers as Oklahoma which could prove to be the difference on the day.

I expect Rattler to edge out Trask in the battle at Quarter Back and I think the Gators are missing enough big players to give the Oklahoma Sooners an edge.

Florida have played really well in recent Bowl Games and they have to be respected with how well they have done as an underdog, but I think they could be short here. The Sooners have also played well as a favourite and I think the favourites deserve the edge, while the money seems to have come down behind Oklahoma when you consider the spread move.

MY PICKS: Appalachian State Mountaineers - 21 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tulane Green Wave - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

BYU Cougars - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Marshall Thundering Herd + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Liberty Flames + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 1 Point @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wisconsin Badgers - 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

College Football Bowl Picks 2019 Part Two (December 30-January 6)

The first half of the Bowl Season is in the books for the 2019 College Football season and we have got the National Championship Game that most would have wanted when the two Tigers, LSU and Clemson, meet in New Orleans in two weeks time.

That is no disrespect to the Ohio State Buckeyes who were very unfortunate with a couple of calls in their narrow loss to Clemson, but the defending Champions looking for a third title in four years versus the best team from the SEC in 2019 looks a top match up. Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence could be a potential contest in the NFL PlayOffs in years to come with both expected to be the Number 1 Overall Pick in the Draft in 2020 and 2021 respectively and I am very much looking forward to that big game on Monday 13th January.


In this thread I am going to cover the Bowl Games which will complete the post-season and I will have a separate post for the National Championship Game which is played a few days after the final Bowl Game of this part of the season.


Monday 30th December
Western Michigan Broncos vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick: At this time of the Bowl season there are some very big games put together, although some of those lose their lustre when players decide they would rather save their bodies for the NFL Draft. On paper this might not be one of the Bowl Games that will grab a lot of headlines, but for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Western Michigan Broncos it is all that matters.

Both teams didn't quite have enough to reach their respective Conference Championship Games, but reaching a Bowl is a big achievement. The Hilltoppers in particular have bounced back from a disappointing 2018 to move from a 3-9 record to an 8-4 one in Tyson Helton's first year as the Head Coach in Bowling Green.

It is back to back winning seasons for Tim Lester as Head Coach of Western Michigan, but he will be looking for a Bowl win this time around having seen his team blown out by the BYU Cougars in 2018. That dropped the Broncos to 7-6 that season, but Lester will be keen to keep the positive trend going with this team having finished with six wins in 2017 and then seven wins in 2018.

At 7-5 the Broncos can reach eight wins for the first time under the Head Coach having been a very strong team under PJ Fleck before he took over as the top man in Minnesota. Western Michigan did lose their last regular season game which stopped some of the momentum they had been building, while the Hilltoppers have won three in a row.

It may be the reason they are favoured to win this Bowl Game, but I do think the underdog with the points could be the right play.

Both teams look like they can strike a balance Offensively which should see them move the chains through strong running attacks, but the Broncos Secondary has perhaps made one or two bigger plays of late which suggests they could stall a drive or two.

Realistically both teams should have enough ability to run the ball and it could come down to which of the teams makes the fewer mistakes. Even then I do think getting more than a Field Goal worth of points with the Western Michigan Broncos looks like being too many to ignore with the game potentially coming down to which of the teams holds the ball last to determine the winner.

This may not be the game that most will be tuning into this week, but that's not the point and taking the underdog to cover looks the right play.


Illinois Fighting Illini vs California Golden Bears Pick: Lovie Smith was under some pressure going into his fourth year as the Head Coach of the Illinois Fighting Illini, and they looked way too short of winning enough games to become Bowl eligible this season when losing to Eastern Michigan. However the Fighting Illini have shown some heart to put some upsets on the board on their way to a 7-5 record and that means a first winning season since 2011.

The school have been speaking about the importance of playing in this Bowl and what is can do for Illinois going forward so there should be plenty of motivation in the ranks of a team who have not played in a Bowl since 2014.

Illinois are taking on the California Golden Bears who have produced seven wins for the second season in a row under Justin Wilcox. A 4-0 start to the season had some dreaming of much bigger things than the opening to the 2019 year, but California dropped five of six in the middle of the year and only bounced back with two wins at the end of the regular season to match the seven wins earned in 2018.

There has only been one season since 2010 that California have won at least eight games so there is plenty on the line for them as well as Illinois. The strong Defensive performances have been the foundation of the success for the Golden Bears in 2019, but they have perhaps lacked something Offensively which has prevented them from having a much stronger record.

The Golden Bears should be able to have a bit more success Offensively in this one if the Fighting Illini have not been able to sort out some of the issues on the Defensive Line. In the last three games Illinois gave up far too many big gains on the ground and being able to control the clock should put the Golden Bears in a strong position.

There is a bit more experience from the Quarter Back position compared with last season, but California have not been consistent throwing the ball. They will have to run to make sure they are in front of the chains and at least giving their Defensive unit strong field positions to work with.

Running the ball is going to be far from easy for the Fighting Illini and that has to be a concern for the team. However they could have better success throwing the ball compared with the Golden Bears whose Secondary ended the regular season by giving up some big yards through the air.

Brandon Peters could be back for Illinois at Quarter Back which would be a huge boost for a team looking to take advantage of any issues California continue to have in the Secondary. He missed the final regular season game, but should be out of concussion protocol in time for the Bowl Game which means a lot to the development of the Fighting Illini to take into the 2020 season.

A couple of key players are missing in the California Secondary and so Illinois might be able to score enough points to stay competitive against this mark. California have a poor recent record when set as the favourite and when they are playing on neutral field, while Illinois have been a solid underdog and neutral field team to back against the spread.

It might have a feel of a home game for the Golden Bears with the location of this Bowl, but I think the underdog can do enough to stay with California, especially with the healthy number of points being given to them.


Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida Gators Pick: When you are playing in the SEC you know there is very little room for error if you want to make the College Football PlayOff or even making one of the other Big Bowl Games. The Florida Gators have reached the ten win mark for the second season in a row under Head Coach Dan Mullen, but they were not able to win the SEC East and now will be looking to go one better than 2018 by winning an eleventh game in the post-season.

They will play the Virginia Cavaliers in the Orange Bowl in Miami.

The Cavaliers finished as the beaten team in the ACC Championship Game when they were crushed by the Clemson Tigers, but they have secured back to back winning seasons under Bronco Mendenhall. A win in the Bowl Game would actually give Virginia a ten win season, but they have already secured more wins than in the 2018 season to continue their development under a Head Coach with a strong reputation.

This is a very big test for Virginia though and they will appreciate they are facing one of the best teams from the loaded SEC. The Florida Gators have based their successes on a very strong Defensive unit, although one or two key players will be missing as they look to get themselves set to play at the next level.

Even then it will be very difficult for the Cavaliers to move the ball on the ground and that puts pressure on Bryce Perkins at Quarter Back even with his dual-threat ability. Perkins showed in the ACC Championship Game that he can have a big impact even against the better Defensive units in College Football when taking it to the Clemson Tigers, but it won't be easy to keep trying to convert from third and long spots.

One problem in being behind the chains is trying to throw against a very good Secondary, although one or two key players sitting out will help Perkins. The second issue is that the Florida Gators have a pass rush that has been living in the backfield of every opponent they have faced and that is the kind of pressure that can lead to errant throws from any Quarter Back when the pocket begins to collapse all around them.

While I do think Bryce Perkins can have some strong drives, I also think the Florida Defense will be tough to do that against on a consistent basis. With that in mind I feel the Gators can make enough stops to give their Offensive unit a chance to shine and make some of the headlines too.

Like Virginia, Florida may have one or two issues in establishing the run against a decent Cavaliers Defensive Line. They have shown signs of being worn down at the end of the regular season, but the Cavaliers are well rested and they can at least force Kyle Trask to beat them with his arm from the Quarter Back position.

Trask has really sparked the passing game in Florida and will be back to Quarter Back the team in 2020. He had some huge games in the final weeks of the regular season and would have taken note of some of the holes that have been exploited in the Virginia Secondary, especially by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Now Florida aren't as good as Clemson and Kyle Trask is not quite Trevor Lawrence, but the Quarter Back can have a solid outing which can put Florida in a position to win and also cover this number.

A Cavaliers pass rush can cause one or two problems for the Gators but this feels like a game in which the SEC team will have the superior support and can pull away. Both Clemson and Notre Dame won by wide enough margins to cover this number and I think the Gators are going to be able to do the same.

MY PICKS: Western Michigan Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Bowl Update: 5-7, - 2.28 Units (12 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)

Week 15: 6-3, + 2.45 Units (9 Units Staked, + 27.22% Yield)
Week 14: 4-5, - 1.22 Units (9 Units Staked, - 13.56% Yield)
Week 13: 4-3, + 0.64 Units (7 Units Staked, + 9.14% Yield)
Week 12: 6-3, + 2.53 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.11% Yield)
Week 11: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 10: 4-1, + 2.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 54.60% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 8: 4-4-1, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Week 7: 3-3, - 0.24 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 6: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.42% Yield)
Week 5: 6-1, + 4.40 Units (7 Units Staked, + 62.86% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Season 2019: 60-52-1, + 2.66 Units (113 Units Staked, + 2.35% Yield)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2018 (December 30th)

A lot of things have been decided in the NFL regular season as we approach the Play Offs which begin next week.

Week 17 can be a very difficult time to make Picks considering we have to second guess so many Head Coaches while other teams are perhaps already looking forward to a new era with current Head Coaches expected to be fired.


Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: A miracle play at the end of Week 14 will have given the Miami Dolphins (7-8) the belief they could challenge for a Play Off spot, but back to back losses have ended those hopes. It has been suggested this past week that Stephen Ross, the owner of the Dolphins, was absolutely livid with the performance in the home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16 which ended Miami's interest in reaching the post-season.

The anger could lead to wholesale changes at Miami who have been struggling for almost twenty years to get the right ideas invested into the team. Adam Gase has had some success as Head Coach of the team, but he could be on the way out if reports are to be believed and I think Ryan Tannehill could be playing his last game as Quarter Back.

Tannehill himself has stated his desire to finish his career with the Miami Dolphins, but he is owed a lot of money in the 2019 season and Miami may be looking for the next Quarter Back to trust who could finally replace Dan Marino.

An injury is not helping Tannehill prove that he could be the man to invest in at Quarter Back beyond this season and a defeat to the Buffalo Bills (5-10) could end all hopes of that happening. Buffalo have lost three of their last four games, but they are playing with the motivation of revenge having been beaten in South Florida in a game the Bills will have felt they could have won.

Josh Allen has to develop his passing for the NFL, but the young Quarter Back has shown he can make big plays with his legs and should have success against the Dolphins Defensive Line which has struggled to stop the run. The last three games have seen Miami show improvement in clamping down on the run, but Buffalo should still have success against a team who may not be playing hard with the rumoured changes to come.

Allen has to beware of the Miami pass rush, but he can scramble from pressure and he should have some success throwing down the field. To be fair to the Quarter Back he has not really had the support in the skill positions that a rookie player would need if they are to make a big impact in the NFL, but even then I expect Allen to have success in this game.

I do think Miami should be able to move the ball too even though Frank Gore has been lost for the season with an injury. Kalen Ballage has come in to fill Gore's gap in the backfield and he has sparked a strong running game for the Dolphins who will be facing a Buffalo Defensive Line which has struggled in recent games when it comes to stopping the run.

Ballage is going to be a key to this game if the Dolphins are going to at least make it competitive as Tannehill is not expected to have much joy throwing the ball. He has not really been given the time to find Receivers downfield and the Buffalo Secondary have been playing well.

It is very difficult to believe in Miami though with the uncertainty surrounding the Head Coach and the Quarter Back and they have a very poor record in Buffalo anyway. Neither team has a good home/road record against the spread, but the Bills should be favoured in the conditions and with the other factors involved and I think they will win and cover as Miami reset once again.


New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: In recent years it has become familiar to have seen the New England Patriots (10-5) have nothing to play for in Week 17 of the regular season as they have usually wrapped up their Bye Week in the Play Offs. This season is a little different with a feeling that the Patriots dynasty with Tom Brady at Quarter Back is perhaps coming to an end, but New England can earn the Number 2 Seed at the very least with a home win on Sunday.

They host the New York Jets (4-11) who perhaps lost in the best way in Week 16- Sam Darnold showed why he was picked so high in the last NFL Draft, but the Jets did not win a game that may adversely affect the position in the 2019 Draft.

Don't tell the players that though as the Jets will head to Foxboro looking to play spoiler for New England and force their Divisional rivals to host a game on Wild Card Weekend next week. However injuries may make life that much more difficult for the Jets on the Offensive side of the ball, while Head Coach Todd Bowles is almost certainly going to be fired in the next couple of days meaning players are perhaps not willing to put it all on the line for him.

This is going to be the first time Sam Darnold faces a Bill Belichick led Defensive unit and I think the Patriots will look to force the rookie into some mistakes. Darnold has not been as good on the road as he has been at home and while there have been promising moments from him in 2018, there have also been the tough learning curve that rookie signal callers have to go through.

The Jets could see their running game at least offer Darnold more support than it has in recent games as they face the New England Defensive Line which has given up huge plays on the ground. However they were able to contain Buffalo to some extent in Week 16 and I think Belichick will want to force a young Quarter Back to throw to move the ball on the Patriots.

Throwing the ball has been something of a problem for New England in recent games with suggestions Tom Brady is not at 100%. Brady wasn't the issue last week, but Rob Gronkowski looks the shadow of the player that terrorised the NFL from the Tight End position while Josh Gordon's absence means the Patriots can't stretch the field as they would like.

I would still expect to see Julian Edelman making some big plays for the Patriots, but the focus could be back on the running game which pounded the Buffalo Bills down last week. The Bills are a stronger Defensive Line than the one the Jets have when it comes to stopping the run and I expect Sony Michel to pick up from where he left off in Week 16 while being complemented by James White and Rex Burkhead.

The Jets do get a lot of pressure up front which is the only chance they have of slowing down the New England Patriots, but if they are stuck trying to defend third and short spots I would expect the home team to make some big plays throughout the game.

It should mean the Patriots can secure a comfortable win on the day and only a late Buffalo Touchdown pass inside the last two minutes of the Week 16 game allowed the Bills to get within this number. Sam Darnold could potentially do the same, but I think New England will score more points than in Week 16 too and I do think they can cover here.

New York have been getting plenty of joy against the spread in recent games against New England, but they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six against the AFC East. They are also 2-8 against the spread in their last ten against a team with a winning home record and New England tend to blow away those teams they are expected to beat and especially at home.

It is a big number, but New England can find a way to cover.


Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There are always some situations which have been cleared up in the NFL regular season by the time we get to Week 17 and one of those is the reward of the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. The New Orleans Saints (13-2) wrapped that up over the last couple of weeks and they are going to be the favourites to reach the Super Bowl from this Conference as it can be very difficult to win a game in the SuperDome.

They will have a Bye through the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs next week, but Sean Payton will still give the likes of Drew Brees a chance to recharge the batteries, while other starters won't be expected to play for much more than one half of Football. It is Teddy Bridgewater who will get his first extended period of time on the field after a devastating injury suffered with the Minnesota Vikings which has been a huge setback in his career.

Bridgewater will lead the Saints into this Divisional game with the Carolina Panthers (6-9) who have dropped seven games in a row to miss out on the Play Offs. The players have played hard for Ron Rivera even when things spiralled out of control, but the Panthers may decide it is time to move on from the Head Coach while they have already shut down Cam Newton for the season at Quarter Back.

An injury to his backup in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 means Carolina will likely turn to Kyle Allen at Quarter Back and I do believe that is going to make it very difficult for the Panthers to move the chains. Allen may have a little more success than anticipated because the Saints could be resting key players on the Defensive Line and in the Secondary, but he didn't show a lot when coming in against the Falcons and will have needed a big week of practice to be competitive in this one.

The game plan will likely involve a lot of Christian McCaffrey which won't be a surprise to anyone reading this. He could have more success than anticipated because he could be playing the second string New Orleans Defensive Linemen, while McCaffrey has proved to be a huge weapon coming out of the backfield.

Kyle Allen may also have a little more success throwing the ball if the Saints are perhaps not as focused as they would like to be and that may at least see the Quarter Back help keep this close.

I liked Teddy Bridgewater at Minnesota, but it will be very difficult to come in and produce a big game against a Carolina team who may be looking for revenge for a home loss to the Saints in Week 15. It may be that Bridgewater is more effective running the ball than throwing it considering some of the struggles Carolina had on the ground last week in the defeat to Atlanta, but I expect the Panthers to play harder against the Saints with a revenge on their minds.

Carolina's Defensive unit can put in one more big performance and they have played the pass pretty well in recent games to think they can at least slow down the Saints in this one.

With this many points given to the road underdog, I do like backing Carolina here.

The underdog is 8-1 against the spread in the last nine in this series, while the Saints have an awful 5-16 record against the spread in their last twenty-one Week 17 games and will now be resting players. Sean Payton is a big part of that poor Week 17 record and the road team has a very strong record against the spread in this series that I do believe Carolina are worthy of a small interest with the points.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: It doesn't feel that long ago when Jason Garrett looked to be on a very hot seat as far as it came to being the Dallas Cowboys (9-6) Head Coach. Wins in six of their last seven games not only got things turned around for the Cowboys, but it was good enough for Dallas to win the NFC East and lock in the Number 4 Seed in the NFC Play Offs.

While Dak Prescott may be pushing for a start against a Divisional rival who were disrespectful to him earlier in the season, Garrett has indicated that the preparations have begun for the Wild Card Play Off game and that means starters will be rested.

Prescott is one of those expected to sit as are the likes of Ezekiel Elliot, Amari Cooper and DeMarcus Lawrence with the Play Offs now the priority. It is a big reason the New York Giants (5-10) are favoured to win this game which could be the last of Eli Manning's career in Gotham.

Odell Beckham Jr is expected to end another season with multiple games missed through injury, but the Giants will be giving their big name players a chance to end the regular season in the right way. Things will have to change in the off-season for the Giants if they are going to get closer to a return to the top of the NFC and so the players involved should play hard to prove they can be kept onboard and help improve the future with the team.

The Giants would have a tough test against the Dallas Defense in a usual week, but the expected rest for the starters should make it a bit easier for them to move the chains. Dallas may look to clamp down on Saquon Barkley and force Manning to beat them through the air, but Barkley has proven he can have an impact on the game by catching the ball out of the backfield and New York should have the ability to move the ball.

The key to the spread is how much time the starters will get to play for Dallas, but even those players could have some problems moving the chains against an improved New York Defensive unit. The Giants have found a way to clamp down on the run, while the Secondary have made some big plays to stop teams being able to pass on them with comfort throughout games.

Interceptions have been the key for the Giants Secondary and that could be a real issue for the Cowboys with a backup Quarter Back in the game and I do like New York to cover in this one.

The Cowboys could easily be focused on preparing for next week instead of worrying about the close of the regular season with a Number 4 Seed already locked up. That lack of motivation involved in this Week 17 game and the expectation that a number of backups will be in the game for Dallas makes the New York Giants an appealing home favourite to back.


Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: There won't be too many great memories to take from the 2018 season for either of this NFC South teams who will finish off the regular season in a Week 17 game to be played in Florida. The Atlanta Falcons (6-9) have won two in a row and will be looking to keep the momentum going through one more game, although their goal back in August would have been to play in a home Super Bowl.

The season has been no less disappointing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) who have lost three in a row to confirm a season with double digit defeats. It is hard to envision Dirk Koetter being kept on as Head Coach and so I am not sure how hard the players will perform for a lame duck Head Coach when there is nothing much on the line for them.

Koetter has been in charge for three years and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been floundering and not shown the improvement the fans would have wanted. Jameis Winston did go into bat for the Head Coach, but the Quarter Back's future with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is uncertain and he could be looking for a new landing spot in the coming months.

Winston may not be the only big name departure from the Buccaneers with DeSean Jackson openly stating his unhappiness with the team. For now the Quarter Back has to try and show off some of the skills that made him the top Draft Pick for the Buccaneers as other teams perhaps begin evaluating whether it is worth potentially picking up Winston if he is available in the weeks ahead.

He should finally see some support from the running game despite the struggles Tampa Bay have had in establishing the run this season and that should at least make things a little easier for Winston. Without a running game in support, Tampa Bay are going to find it very difficult to throw the ball with any consistency against an Atlanta Secondary that have played well in recent weeks.

That success has been aided by the pass rush which has come alive in the last few games and the Falcons should certainly have the edge against the Tampa Bay Offensive Line which has struggled to protect whichever Quarter Back has lined up behind Center.

Moving the ball should be a lot more consistent for the Atlanta Falcons even if they are not as strong on the road as they are at home. The Offensive side of the ball has worked well for them for much of the season, but the Falcons have made critical mistakes at key times which have prevented them from winning games they arguably should have.

Over the last couple of games Atlanta have been much more consistent with their play with Matt Ryan being supported by a very strong rushing attack led by Tevin Coleman and Brian Hill who broke out for 100 yards on the ground last week. Even if Coleman can't go, Hill may be able to pick up from where he left off in Week 16. Being able to run the ball effectively opens up the passing lanes for Matt Ryan who has some very strong Receivers here and the Quarter Back has some decent numbers throughout 2018.

The Buccaneers can get some pressure up front when playing hard, but I am not sure the pass rushers will be at the top of their game. That may mean Ryan has a chance to expose the injuries in the Secondary and I like the Atlanta Falcons to have the more consistent success moving the chains and thus they look worth backing as the underdog.

Atlanta have won on three of their last four visits to Tampa Bay and can win this one too.


Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There is no love lost between these teams and this may be the best chance for Cleveland to get some revenge over Baltimore for stealing their team over twenty years ago. The Cleveland Browns (7-7-1) might be out of the Play Offs, but don't worry about the motivation for a team who have long been in the doldrums of the NFL as they have a chance to end the 2018 season with four straight wins and the chance to play spoiler here is something that will be right up Baker Mayfield's street.

Things are also very clear for the Baltimore Ravens (9-6) who will secure the AFC North Division if they win or if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose. John Harbaugh will only be worrying about the things the Ravens can control and that is winning this game after being sparked by Lamar Jackson at Quarter Back.

Jackson is a work in progress as far as throwing the ball is concerned, but he has clearly got the support of the players to a greater extent than Joe Flacco ever has. It meant Harbaugh sticking with the hot hand of Jackson who has helped the Ravens become a very strong power running team that won't make mistakes and will then lean on a strong Defensive unit to make sure they are winning games.

The rookie Quarter Back has helped the Ravens get into a position to win the AFC North and he will be expected to keep the positive vibes going in this Week 17 game. A few weeks ago you would have thought the strong running game of the Ravens would be a real worry for the Cleveland Defensive Line, but in recent games the Browns have clamped down on the run and that makes this game more interesting.

Containing the Ravens won't be easy because of the athleticism of Jackson at Quarter Back which means he can make some huge runs of his own. The Browns will have to look to set the edge on the Defensive Line and try and force Baltimore into mistakes Offensively, but teams have found it quite difficult to stop the Ravens and Cleveland may be another.

The Browns do have the ability to get into the backfield and make plays, but they can't completely ignore what Jackson can do through the air. Having respect for the passing game, but effectively making sure they can control the trenches is the key for the Browns and recent games suggest they can find a formula to at least limit the amount of points scored by Baltimore.

There may not be a Play Off berth on the line for Cleveland, but I think Baker Mayfield will love this situation and I expect the Quarter Back to produce a big game with that in mind. Ruining the season for other teams is Mayfield's kind of thing and the whole Offensive unit has followed the lead of the Quarter Back.

A real key to this game for the Browns is how well Nick Chubb can do when it comes to running the ball. The Cleveland Offensive Line have managed to open some big holes for their Running Back, but they are up against one of the better Defensive Lines in the NFL and it is going to be very difficult to keep earning chunk yards on the ground as they have been.

It means it could be down to Mayfield and the passing game to give the Browns a chance to move the chains and I think the Quarter Back can have some success. He has been well protected in recent games and Cleveland have some decent playmakers in the passing game to support Mayfield and this has the feeling of being a close game with the pressure on the home team to secure the win and a Play Off berth.

The Browns do have a poor 1-5 record against the spread in their last six against the Baltimore Ravens, but it does feel this is a new era in Cleveland. They are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five against a team with a winning record at home, and they are playing a Ravens team who are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games.

The pressure is on the Ravens and they will just want to get away with any kind of win so covering this number may be beyond them. I will look for the Browns with the points here.


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: When you have a record like the Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) you would hope that at least the Division title has been secured. However two losses in a row have actually opened the door for the Los Angeles Chargers to win the AFC West and also secure the Number 1 Seed so there is plenty of work for the Chiefs to do at Arrowhead.

They face a Divisional rival in the Oakland Raiders (4-11) who have won two of their las three games and look to play spoiler in Week 17. Jon Gruden is clearly making some big moves for the Raiders who are coming in off an emotional Monday Night win which could be the last game they play in Oakland with the 2019 home games up in the air ahead of a move to Las Vegas.

An emotional night and a short week could leave Oakland vulnerable in Week 17 as players begin to wonder what the future may hold for them. They are playing well enough Offensively to have some success in this game with the feeling this could be the last game played by Derek Carr at Quarter Back for Oakland.

Carr is the key for the Raiders as he closes in on a 4000 passing yard year for Oakland, but Gruden is clearly not sold on the Quarter Back while the team-mates have not been convinced about their leader either. He has not been supported by much of a running game, but Oakland could get on track in this one considering how badly the Chiefs have played the run.

You can't really count on that happening on a short week though and instead it will be up to Carr to have to throw the ball to make plays. It won't be easy to do that if Oakland are not able to at least put him in third and manageable spots because the Chiefs have the kind of pass rush which will disrupt the Oakland Offensive Line.

Carr has tried to negate that by throwing the ball much quicker than he would want to, but that means Oakland are checking down a lot and I think the Raiders may not have the consistent success they would need to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs Offensive unit.

The decision to cut Kareem Hunt, which was the right one, has just knocked the Chiefs a little out of sync and they need to find someone who can consistently run the ball. Damien Williams has not played badly but he could have a difficult day against an improved Oakland Defensive Line, although Mahomes is capable of opening up running lanes with the success he has had throwing the ball.

Recent numbers against the pass have been improved from the Raiders too, but they have not faced a Quarter Back like Mahomes and I think they will struggle to stop the Chiefs moving the ball around the field for as long as they want. The motivation to lock up the Number 1 Seed should mean Andy Reid does not let up until the game is firmly in hand and the emotional effort put in a few days ago may have seen Oakland leave something out on the field.

This is a big number but Kansas City are 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home against the Raiders. Oakland are also 2-9-1 against the spread in their last twelve games against a team with a winning record at home, while they are 1-10 against the spread off a straight up win.

Despite the number, I think the Chiefs can find a cover and they are worth backing in one of the later slots in Week 17.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: JuJu Smith-Schuster is going to be a top Receiver in the NFL so it hurt to see him having the costly fumble which has not only cost the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-1) a chance to tie the game at New Orleans in Week 16, but also means their destiny in now out of their hands. The Steelers will be considered the best team that fails to make the Play Offs if they can't get things turned around in Week 17, but Mike Tomlin will be reminding his players they can only control what they do in this final game of the regular season.

Pittsburgh have to win and then either hope the Baltimore Ravens were to lose or the Indianapolis trip to the Tennessee Titans ends in a tie. To say it is very short odds on the Steelers missing the Play Offs will not be an understatement, but a chance exists and I would expect to see the Steelers to win this game and by a good margin too.

The Steelers should be able to establish the run even if James Connor is still not healthy enough to return and that should mean Ben Roethlisberger is going to find some big passing lanes to exploit. There are rumours that Antonio Brown is potentially going to miss out, but I would expect him to start and even without him the Steelers have some serious talent that should be able to exploit the banged up Cincinnati Secondary.

It would be a surprise if the Bengals rolled over for the Steelers considering the rivalry that exists between these Divisional rivals. However they are banged up on both sides of the ball and that will make it very difficult for them in this road game against a motivated opponent.

In recent games Cincinnati have been able to at least rely on Joe Mixon to make some plays on the ground and give Jeff Driskel a chance to make plays as he took over from Andy Dalton at Quarter Back. It is going to be much tougher for Mixon to have a big game running the ball against Pittsburgh considering how tough the Steelers Defensive Line has been in recent weeks and that means the pressure will be on the Quarter Back to produce.

Driskel does not have AJ Green to throw to and Tyler Boyd could be limited at best which means he will have to rely on checking down to the likes of Mixon. However the Bengals struggling to run the ball would mean having to make plays from third and long situations and Pittsburgh's pass rush could then have the big impact in the game.

Make no mistake this is a very big spread for the Steelers to cover and plays into the fact that they HAVE to win if they are going to make the Play Offs. The Bengals do have a very poor record against the spread against Pittsburgh though and the Steelers have been cashing in at the window at home.

Cincinnati haven't been blown out many times this season and covered as a 17 point dog at the Los Angeles Clippers earlier this month. However the players could have had enough of this season and I will look for a small interest in the Steelers being able to win and cover.


Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The Seattle Seahawks (9-6) were expected to be in a transition having moved away from the 'Legion of Boom' and investing in new Defensive players. However Bobby Wagner has helped gel the Defensive unit together better than expected and a power running team with Russell Wilson at Quarter Back have secured a Play Off spot.

Pete Carroll is not expected to call off the starters as he will want his Seattle team to keep the momentum behind them ahead of the Wild Card Play Off game to be played next weekend. That has been the way Carroll has always played these 'dead rubber' games in the past and there is also the motivation for the Seahawks to make sure they end with the Number 5 Seed and avoid a tough trip to the Chicago Bears in the Play Offs.

It would be a huge surprise if the Seahawks were not able to beat the Arizona Cardinals (3-12) who have been in uncompetitive in three straight losses. Head Coach Steve Wilks has almost been resigned to his fate of losing his job at the end of the regular season and the Cardinals players have not really been able to perform well enough to believe they want to keep him around.

Josh Rosen has really had a hard time in his rookie year at Quarter Back, but he has not exactly been helped by the turnstiles being used on the Offensive Line who have offered next to no protection. Rosen is expected to be put under pressure by the Seattle pass rush whenever he drops back to throw, while his own accuracy has not been where he would have wanted.

Teams have not really respected the pass when they have played the Cardinals and that has made it very difficult for David Johnson to have the kind of impact he would have liked. Johnson is clearly the best player on the Offensive unit and he could have some success against the Seahawks Defensive Line, although for the most part I expect to see drives stalled and perhaps some turnovers created.

Seattle should be a little more comfortable moving the ball as Chris Carson is expected to have another big game running the ball. The Cardinals Defensive Line has been worn down when it comes to stopping the run and Seattle have shown they will line up the Offensive Line to create power running lanes which then makes life that much easier for Russell Wilson at Quarter Back.

Wilson has been put under pressure behind an Offensive Line that doesn't protect him as well as they help the Running Backs run the ball. However Wilson can extend plays with his legs and he should be able to move the ball from third and short spots for much of this game.

The Seahawks did have a narrow win on the road over Arizona earlier this season and they have lost three home games in a row to the Cardinals, but they look much stronger than their visitors this time around.

Arizona are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games overall, while Seattle have a very good looking 35-16-1 record against the spread when facing a team with a losing record on the road. It is a big number, but Seattle should be very motivated here and can become the fourth team in a row to crush the Arizona Cardinals who probably can't wait to put an end to the 2018 season.


Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: No one was surprised to hear that this game was flexed into the Sunday Night Football slot in Week 17 as the winner will be making the Play Offs and the losing team will be ending their 2018 season. So much is on the line, but the news has not been good for the Tennessee Titans (9-6) who have ruled out Quarter Back Marcus Mariota which means Blaine Gabbert will get the start for them in this pivotal game.

The Titans have almost been in Play Off mode for a month as they have managed to stay alive in the race for the post-season with four straight wins. They have begun to dominate teams on the ground, but they are going to need to be at their best if they are going to beat the Indianapolis Colts (9-6).

Andrew Luck did not look completely like his old self earlier in the season, but he has grown in each passing week and has been very important to the revival of the Colts. The Colts started the season at 1-5, but they have won eight of their last nine games to give themselves an opportunity and this may be a team that not many of the other Play Off teams really want to see.

It hasn't been all about Luck as credit has to be given to the likes of Marlon Mack, TY Hilton and Eric Ebron although the latter will need to get through a late test to determine his availability for this game. Mack is the Running Back and he could have a hard day running the ball when you think of how well the Titans have clamped down on the Backs they have faced in recent games.

Tennessee have played some very good Backs in that time, but the threat of Luck could open up more running lanes as the Titans look to prevent the Quarter Back throwing the ball around the field. Luck has been well protected by his Offensive Line so will believe he can make some big plays in this one, but the Titans have to be respected for the Defensive performances in the last few weeks.

If Marcus Mariota was starting I would give the Titans more of a chance, but Blaine Gabbert is a pretty poor Quarter Back. He doesn't scramble as well as Mariota and that should mean the Colts can showcase how much they have improved Defensively.

The Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run for much of the season and I think Indianapolis will be focusing on stopping Derrick Henry and making Gabbert feel he has to throw the ball for successful drives to be put together. Stopping Henry entirely won't be easy, but I do think the Colts have the personnel to have success and that should give them every chance of winning this game.

Teams have had some success throwing the ball against the Colts Secondary, but I am not sure Gabbert is going to be able to replicate that. It makes it hard to believe in the home underdog in this big Sunday Night Football game and I think the Titans will be undone by the Colts power scoring.

The favourite is 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series and I think that run can be extended thanks to the injury suffered by Mariota.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 13.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 7 Points @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 13 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)