NFL Week 16 Picks 2025 (Thursday 18th December-Monday 22nd December)

Three regular season weeks of the 2025 year remain for NFL teams and that means the margin for error has all but disappeared.

Last week we saw the Kansas City Chiefs eliminated from the post-season for the first time since Patrick Mahomes took over as starting Quarter Back, although the bigger concern for the team is the ACL injury picked up by the star player. All season he has battled through adversity and pain to make sure he can lead the Chiefs, but the late injury suffered in Week 15 of the 2025 season could potentially impact how the Kansas City Chiefs approach the off-season and perhaps even the entire 2026 year.

Patrick Mahomes was not the only big name player suffering an injury in Week 15 after Micah Parsons went down for the Green Bay Packers and he is another likely to miss the remainder of the season.

It has been one of those seasons- so many important names have been sidelined for huge lengths of time and the top of the NFL has been impacted by that.

Some teams have played up to the level of expectation- the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams looked to be the top teams in the NFC and both are expected to be playing beyond Week 18.

The Buffalo Bills earned a big win last week and may feel this is the most open route into the Super Bowl than thye have encountered in the Josh Allen era- big threats like the Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals are out, while the Bills look built to compete in January as long as they can find a way to just get the Defensive unit up another level or two.

You have to expect the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and perhaps the Baltimore Ravens will have something to say about that, but this really does feel like a season in which you can take a handful of teams and still fail to identify the Super Bowl Winner.

Uncertainty on the field has also seeped into the NFL Picks and it is going to take some effort to turn this season around and end another year with a positive return.

Week 15 produced a small victory, but much more is needed with the selections beginning on Thursday Night Football again.

Further Picks will be added to this thread in the days ahead.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFC West looks very likely to send three teams into the Playoffs, but the Division is still up for grabs and the top three will all still believe they can finish as Champions. The likelihood is that the NFC West winner will also finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, meaning the run towards the Super Bowl will have to go through them, and this Thursday Night Football game is a very important one.

The Los Angeles Rams (11-3) are leading the NFC West having already earned one win over the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) and having a 3-1 Divisional record compared with a 2-2 mark for the Seahawks.

It makes this an important game for both teams, who are a game ahead of the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers, and the winner of this game in Week 16 will have the momentum to take home the Divisional crown.

Both teams were victorious in Week 15, although the Seattle Seahawks made much tougher work of the Indianapolis Colts than most would have expected.

Some of that could have been down to this upcoming game and not taking the Colts as seriously as they might, but Seattle did win and that makes it four victories in a row.

They will need to make sure they are putting together a more consistent Offensive plan if they are going to win this game, but Seattle should be confident that they can do that. Of course that will only work if they can avoid the turnovers that cost them the game when they visited Los Angeles last month.

Sam Darnold had four Interceptions in that game and the Quarter Back still has plenty to prove when it comes to showing up when the pressure is at its most intense. He has experience, which will help, and Sam Darnold is playing in front of a very loud home crowd and there are holes in this Los Angeles Secondary that can be exploited.

Running the ball is going to be difficult against this Rams Defensive Line, but Seattle will feel they can execute better than they did in the road loss in Los Angeles. As long as they remain balanced, Seattle should have success moving the chains and making sure they give the Defensive unit the best chance to win the battle of the field position.

It is going to be the battle at the Line of Scrimmage on the other side of the ball that really could determine the outcome of this game.

In recent games, the Los Angeles Rams have been very good at establishing the run with the tandem at Running Back operating behind this strong Offensive Line. However, the Seattle Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and they will want to make sure they are stronger than the first meeting when the Seahawks did allow Los Angeles to pound out some big gains on the ground.

Matthew Stafford has been well protected and he has been playing as well as any Quarter Back in the NFL and through a much longer period- his numbers continue to impress, but Davante Adams may be missing and this Seattle Secondary have impressed.

When the teams met earlier this season, the Rams saw Matthew Stafford throw two Touchdown passes, but he was restricted to 130 passing yards and it is going to be a test for the Seahawks to match that kind of output again.

Even in recent weeks, the Seahawks have continued to play the pass really well and this is where they may be able to turn the tables on the Los Angeles Rams and level up the season series.

Los Angeles have won four of the last five Divisional games between these NFC West rivals, but the Seahawks played well enough to beat the Rams last month and they may just do enough to edge this important game.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders Pick: Last year these two NFC East teams ended up meeting in the Conference Championship game, but things have not gone to plan in 2025, at least as far as the Washington Commanders (4-10) are concerned.

Injuries have been a big issue for the Commanders all season and they have struggled to find any momentum.

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) went on and won the Super Bowl after crushing the Commanders in the NFC Championship Game, but they have not been as good as they looked last season. This has not prevented them from dominating the NFC East and the Eagles are one win away from becoming the first repeat Champion of the Division in twenty years.

Injuries on the Offensive Line have been a problem for the Eagles and this is a team that have not always been on the same page on this side of the ball. They did at least snap a three game losing run last week and Philadelphia will be hoping that they can round out the regular season with the kind of form and momentum that can carry them through January and February.

Encouragement for this game can be taken from the fact that the Commanders are plenty banged up and the Eagles Offensive Line have been able to help establish the run pretty effectively in recent games. That should bode well for Philadelphia, who know the importance for the whole team to have the Offensive unit playing in front of the chains, and they should be able to pound the rock against this Washington Defensive Line.

This should mean things are opened up for Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back who still has some big time Receivers to target down the field- playing in third and manageable means Hurts remains dangerous with his legs and he can use play-action to expose the holes in the Washington Secondary by getting the ball down the field.

There would be more concerns that they may need to be involved in a shoot out if Jayden Daniels was playing at Quarter Back for Washington, but the young player is not going to be risked the rest of the way so he can fully recover from the injuries he has played through this season.

Instead it will be Marcus Mariota back behind Center and he can at least hand the ball to the Running Backs in this one against an Eagles Defensive Line that is missing Jalen Carter. In recent games, Philadelphia have struggled to stop the run with any consistency and so this is an area that Washington can target, although Marcus Mariota will have to remind the Eagles of his threat with his arm.

We have not seen too much of that of late and this Philadelphia Secondary has really been operating at a high level and look to be the key in any prolonged Playoff run.

It could allow Philadelphia to play closer to the Line of Scrimmage and dare Mariota to beat them with his arm, which is something he has struggled to do with any consistency since coming in for Jayden Daniels. Throwing against this Secondary is dangerous for a player struggling with turnovers and this looks a good chance for the Philadelphia Eagles to come through with a road win.

Almost exactly twelve months ago, Washington did beat Philadelphia at home, but the injury hit Commanders have to face this team twice in the next three games and they look unlikely to be competitive all the way through.

Taking some of the juice away and backing the Eagles to cover a number just below a converted Touchdown mark looks the way to go as they clinch a Playoff spot and remain interested in finished as high as the Number 2 Seed in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: The NFC North looks like a Division that will be sending at least two teams to the Playoffs, but it is still uncertain as to which two teams that will be.

With that in mind, a second meeting between the Chicago Bears (10-4) and Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) in three weeks looks vitally important.

The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears at home in Week 14 when Caleb Williams was Intercepted in the End Zone as he looked to put the Bears in a position to tie the game. Both teams have picked up some serious injuries in the time since, which changes the mood around the game, but it is the case of 'next man up' with the Playoffs fast approaching and both teams targeting a spot in the final Bracket.

Micah Parsons is the big name that suffered a serious injury for the Green Bay Packers, but Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson are banged up on the other side of the ball. The latter two look like they will suit up, which is big news for the Packers as they look to retake the Divisional lead, but the injury to Parsons adds up to others on the Defensive side of the ball and that has to give the Chicago Bears huge encouragement.

In recent games, the Bears have been running the ball really well behind a strong looking Offensive Line and they will feel they did run well enough in the road loss at the Packers. Now they are facing a Green Bay team that have lost key personnel up front and that could see the Bears have perhaps a bit more success compared with the first meeting, which was still amongst the better performances against the Packers Defensive Line.

Putting Caleb Williams in third and manageable spots is very important considering the Bears are without a couple of key Receivers this week.

This will allow the Quarter Back to make moves with his legs when the pocket does break down, while DJ Moore and Colston Loveland can still find spaces to exploit down the field.

As injuries have cleared up on the Defensive side of the ball, the Chicago Bears have shown improvement here and that will be something that they will be looking to show in this rematch. If Josh Jacobs was going to miss out, the Bears might have felt more comfortable, especially as they allowed the Running Back to almost reach 100 yards on the ground in the game two weeks ago.

This is still an area that the Green Bay Packers will be looking to exploit considering the Bears Defensive Line have continued to show some weakness to the run.

Making life comfortable for Jordan Love could give the Quarter Back the opportunities that the Bears feel they can offer Caleb Williams, and Christian Watson being available would certainly help. Key players have returned to the Chicago Secondary, which will make the passing game that much tougher to execute, but Jordan Love had over 200 yards through the air in the first game between these NFC North rivals and that meant the Packers were extremely balanced in the Offensive output.

Interceptions could be a key part of the game as it was in the first meeting.

This Bears Secondary have been very dangerous and they did pick off Jordan Love in the first game, while the Week 15 win over the Cleveland Browns underlined the ability of this Chicago team to win the turnover battle.

Losing two key Receivers hurts though and that is where the Green Bay Packers have to feel they still have enough Offensive firepower to come through.

It will be wise to keep an eye on the injury report with both Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson needed and pushing to be included, even if the Coaching staff are less sure.

Conditions will not be easy at Soldier Field in a night kick off in December, but the Green Bay Packers may just have enough to maintain the mental edge in this rivalry by earning a narrow road victory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The top of the NFC South will be decided in the last three weeks of the regular season as the two leaders meet twice in the remaining schedule.

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) and Carolina Panthers (7-7) have been struggling for consistency, while both are 2-2 in the Division- make no mistake, the team that wins both of the regular season games between these teams is going to be making it through to the post-season, although the pressure on the losing team will be having to win next week to make sure the winner has not been able to pull clear ahead of the Week 18 rematch.

Neither will be thinking ahead though and this Week 16 game is hugely important.

The Buccaneers lost on Thursday Night Football in Week 15 on a late Field Goal, but Mike Evans was back in action and the mini-Bye has to do the team the world of good. Key players have either missed significant time or they have been playing through the pain and that has hindered the long-time dominant NFC South team.

Carolina were not able to take advantage of the Buccaneers slip after losing to the New Orleans Saints for a second time, but they have been much better in 2025 compared with 2024 and there is still so much for them to play for.

They may be without an important Offensive Lineman for this game, but the Panthers have to feel they can still establish the run against what has been a surprisingly vulnerable Tampa Bay Defensive Line. That is an area where big players have been playing through injury and that has meant the Buccaneers have struggled to stop the run with any consistency, which is an area Carolina have to exploit.

It is important just to take the pressure from Quarter Back Bryce Young, who has continued to be a little up and down.

Bryce Young will be facing a Tampa Bay Secondary that has been struggling to stop plays, but he is hoping that Tetaiora McMillan is able to suit up to give him more options.

Running the ball should be something the Buccaneers are able to do in this game too and they have Bucky Irving back in the lineup, which is a boost. They will be looking to keep the pressure away from Baker Mayfield, who is clearly playing despite not being at 100% healthy, although the return of Mike Evans is a massive boost for the veteran under Center.

He has been faced with some pressure as the Offensive Line have struggled to offer time, but Baker Mayfield can step back and target Evans in any jump ball situation knowing his Wide Receiver will likely win.

That should help and the experience of the Buccaneers should mean they have not panicked too much about some tight losses.

Having a bit of extra time to prepare for this game should also be an important factor in favour of the road team, while Tampa Bay will not have forgotten the dominance they have had over this Divisional rival in recent years. This could all be at play with the Buccaneers capable of finding enough big plays, and perhaps a turnover or two, to turn this game in their own favour.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The defeat on Monday Night Football might have spelled the end of the Tua Tagovailoa era as Quarter Back of the Miami Dolphins (6-8). The underwhelming 2025 season has officially ended with elimination with the defeat at the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Tagovailoa's performance was heavily criticised and he has been replaced at Quarter Back by rookie Quinn Ewers.

The Dolphins are hosting a Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) team who have had another really poor season where Quarter Back Joe Burrow has missed a number of games again.

Joe Burrow has even hinted at the potential of leaving the Bengals, although that looks unlikely in the very near future- the focus instead is to bounce back from a miserable day in the office for the Bengals when blown out by the Baltimore Ravens and failing to score a point.

There is expected to be a reaction to that, even if Joe Burrow's comments have raised plenty of eyebrows this past week.

He is fortunate to be going up against a Miami Defensive unit that may struggle to pick up the intensity after elimination was confirmed and with a rookie Quarter Back coming into the lineup on the other side of the ball. It may feel Miami are already thinking ahead to next season, which could cloud the thinking of those on the field, and this Dolphins Defensive unit have been inconsistent all season anyway.

To give them some credit, Miami have played pretty well on this side of the ball in recent games, but could not do much to slow the Pittsburgh Steelers and are now playing on a short week.

The Bengals may be without Tee Higgins, but Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow can make connections to keep the ball moving and Chase Brown has been running the ball with real competitive spirit. He has also proven to be capable of catching the ball when leaking out of the backfield and Cincinnati have to feel they can move the chains.

It is easy to say the same for the Miami Dolphins as they look to lean on De'Von Achane, who had a tough night in Pittsburgh, but who has been a huge figure in the Offense with the way he has been running the ball behind this Miami Offensive Line.

Coming up against the struggling Bengals Defensive Line should be a huge advantage, but it may depend on how much respect there is for a rookie Quarter Back- there is every reason to believe the Bengals play closer to the Line of Scrimmage and dare Quinn Ewers to beat them with his arm, rather than allow Achane to run all over them.

Things will feel a lot different if Quinn Ewers is able to make some plays with his arm, although it should be noted that the Miami Offensive Line have been struggling with their pass protection. Instead the focus may be to get Ewers going with quick passes closer to the Line of Scrimmage, and that may just benefit Cincinnati to come up and make sure they are keeping the Miami Offensive unit in third and long spots where they can.

Being at home has to give Miami motivation, even on a short week, and Head Coach Mike McDaniel is convinced Quinn Ewers gives his team a shot in the arm from the Quarter Back position.

As long as he can make some throws to give the Bengals something to think about, it should keep things clear up front for De'Von Achane to have a bounce back game and having more than a Field Goal worth of points with the home team looks too good to pass up here.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants Pick: Both of these teams may be eliminated, but the end of the regular season is an opportunity to assess how they can turn things around in 2026. Both have young, inexperienced Quarter Backs starting in this game, and those players need to impress upper management ahead of the Draft where both teams will potentially have high Picks.

The New York Giants (2-12) are one of three teams with just two wins secured this season and there will be some in the fanbase hoping they lose out.

They have a tough test this week against an improving Minnesota Vikings (6-8), although that improvement has come too late. In Week 15 they effectively ended the Dallas Cowboys season with a win on Sunday Night Football and it is going to be a test for the Vikings to back that up after winning in front of a national audience.

JJ McCarthy has not been quite as good as hoped, but he had a big game against the Cowboys and has some big Receivers who can help him continue that trend. It certainly helps that he is throwing against a New York Secondary that has been struggling in recent games and the young Quarter Back can have another solid performance.

He is throwing outdoors this time, which is going to bring its own challenges, but it will help that McCarthy should be well backed by the running game and that should keep him in third and manageable spots around the field.

This should give the Vikings every chance of keeping the chains moving, while the Brian Flores led Defensive unit have to be confident of giving Minnesota a chance to pull clear for a road win.

Jaxson Dart had given the Giants a boost when being brought in as the starting Quarter Back, but he has not looked fully healthy and it really does not help that key Offensive skill players have gone down with injury around him. With a potential high Draft Pick coming up, the Quarter Back will be looking to show the management what he can bring to the field, although a new Head Coach is going to arrive and that may spell Dart being pushed backwards in any pecking order.

He will need the Giants Offensive Line to help establish the run, although Jaxson Dart has not looked as comfortable running the ball himself to steer clear of pressure.

The Vikings Defensive Line may be extra ready to stop the run in order to bamboozle Jaxson Dart by asking him to make plays from third and long spots on the field. That would be the plan so they can perhaps create some turnovers, while the Minnesota Secondary have been playing well and will believe they have the talent needed to shut down this Giants passing attack.

It is a tough spot for the Vikings with this game being after a big win on national television and moving from indoors to outdoors.

However, they look stronger than a Giants team that have to be counting down the days until the end of the regular season and Minnesota can do enough to win and cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: The top of the NFC South and NFC West are being fought out pretty hard as we close on the end of the regular season, but both of these teams are not involved. There will be real disappointment around the Atlanta Falcons (5-9) and Arizona Cardinals (3-11) for the seasons that have been put together and that does make it hard to know what kind of motivation that both will be playing with.

At least the Falcons can point to a couple of wins in the last four games played, but the Arizona Cardinals have lost six in a row and look like they really have lost their way.

Jacoby Brissett has not been to blame for the poor season put together by the Cardinals and he has shown enough to have the team thinking they need to move on from Kyler Murray. That means the veteran will conclude the season at Quarter Back for the Cardinals and he could have a strong outing in this game against a vulnerable Atlanta Defensive unit.

Injuries have not helped the Cardinals, but there have been players willing to step up and make big plays for the team and they will feel there are opportunities against the Falcons.

Just being able to run the ball well enough to put Jacoby Brissett and third and manageable spots is the key and it should allow the veteran to make some plays into this Secondary. Marvin Harrison Jr looks set to miss out again, but Michael Wilson has shown his qualities while Harrison Jr has been on the sidelines and Arizona should have successes.

However, you can say the same for the Atlanta Falcons, even if Kirk Cousins continues to guide the team instead of Michael Penix Jr- the veteran was an important figure in the Falcons Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and there is talent on this side of the ball.

Bijan Robinson was not the star of the show, but he had another big outing in the win over the Buccaneers and there is every chance he picks up from where he left off against this banged up and vulnerable Arizona Defensive Line. Having Robinson rip off some big gains on the ground would be a huge edge for the entire Offensive unit and it should mean Kirk Cousins and the passing game can take advantage by finding plenty of balance on this side of the ball.

There is a hope that Drake London could be ready to suit up, while Kyle Pitts Sr had a dominant game at Tight End- this should make Kirk Cousins' life very easy and the Atlanta Falcons should be comfortable playing indoors in this one.

Time should be given to Kirk Cousins by the Offensive Line and the road team may have a bit too much firepower for the home team.

Both teams should score plenty of points, but the Falcons may find a bit more Offensive balance and that can be key to a road win.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions Pick: Both of these teams are in a position to push their way into the Playoffs, although there is a feeling that the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) pathway is much clearer than the one faced by the Detroit Lions (8-6), despite both holding the same record in different Conferences.

The record has proven to be good enough for the Steelers to lead the AFC North and they remain a game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens, while Pittsburgh would also be in touch with those teams chasing Wild Card spots. Winning out is important for Aaron Rodgers, who is incredibly familiar with the Lions from his time with the Green Bay Packers, and the Steelers in their bid to return to the Playoff.

For the Detroit Lions, 8-6 means being third in the tough NFC North and the team are needing to win out and hope for results to land their way in order to finish in a Wild Card spot. The likelihood of winning the Division again look very, very slim after the latest loss and Head Coach Dan Campbell will be disappointed by some recent inconsistency as injuries continue to take a toll on the team.

One important factor to note is that the Lions have bounced back from losses and they are looking to do that again this weekend. Under Dan Campbell, not only do the Detroit Lions regularly avoid back to back losses, but they tend to come out with something to prove and that will be the case in this Week 16 game.

There has to be some real excitement amongst the group after seeing the way the Pittsburgh Steelers have struggled to stop the run in recent weeks and they are going to have to deal with 'Sonic and Knuckles' this time.

Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should get back on track in this one, especially with the Steelers set to be without TJ Watt again, and the Detroit Lions should keep Jared Goff in third and manageable spots throughout the game.

Jared Goff should have a touch more time in the pocket with Watt out of the game, but he also should not have to hold onto the ball for too long as he looks to attack this Pittsburgh Secondary. Credit has to be given to the Steelers for the performance in the win over the Miami Dolphins, but playing in Detroit against this Lions Offensive unit is a different challenge and the pressure will be on Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers to keep up on the scoreboard.

The injuries have piled up on the Defensive side of the ball as far as Detroit are concerned and that should offer Pittsburgh real encouragement.

However, the Steelers have not always been the most consistent Offensive team, although Aaron Rodgers has led his team to consecutive wins to hold onto the Divisional lead.

Aaron Rodgers has found some chemistry with his Receivers and Kenneth Gainwell has given the team a real spark running the ball and so you do have to expect the Steelers to at least move the chains and have some Offensive successes. They should find some balance, but the Steelers Offensive Line can be a little hit or miss and this Detroit Lions team may have the anger and motivation to wear down a team playing on a short week.

As mentioned before, Detroit have bounced back from straight up losses very well under Head Coach Dan Campbell and this game feels more important to them than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

It means plenty to the Steelers, but the Lions would be on the brink of elimination with a defeat and that motivation is going to keep them focused and ready to grind down this opponent at home.

Covering will not be easy, but find any layer that takes the juice out of the price by dropping the line below a key number 7.

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The collapse in the Week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills have raised the volume of the doubters around the New England Patriots (11-3), but this is a team that remains in charge of the AFC East. Bouncing back with a victory will be a tough test for the Patriots who will be travelling to face the Baltimore Ravens (7-7) who host this Sunday Night Football game knowing they have very little margin for error in their bid to return to the post-season.

Not many teams in the AFC would like to see the Ravens in January, but Baltimore have had to battle through adversity this season.

In Week 15 they secured an important win over the Cincinnati Bengals to snap a two game losing run and the Ravens can still win the AFC North by making sure they sweep the remainder of the regular season scheduled and hope the Pittsburgh Steelers lose twice.

Focus has to be on winning this game and the Baltimore Ravens are going to be really confident that they can establish the run against this Patriots Defensive Line. Lamar Jackson will have to make sure he is using his legs when the pocket breaks down, but the Ravens being in third and manageable spots will give them every chance of making sure they are keeping the chains moving.

Lamar Jackson will know that his Offensive Line has had some issues in pass protection, but the team being in third and manageable should mean the Quarter Back does not need a lot of time. There are Ravens Receivers who can make some big plays, although Jackson will respect this Patriot Secondary and the performances produced this season.

New England are going to try to bounce back from the home loss to the Buffalo Bills, but they are up against an improving Baltimore Defensive unit.

In particular, the Baltimore Defensive Line have really been clamping down on the run in recent games and they will be very keen to make sure they put Drake Maye in a position to beat them where he needs to hold onto the ball a little longer than usual. The Patriots are a strong Offensive Line and TreVeyon Henderson has been in fine form, but they struggled to maintain the run in the loss to the Buffalo Bills and that did ultimately cost them the chance of closing out the win.

Drake Maye does have some solid Receivers around him, much like Lamar Jackson, but it is always going to be more challenging if asked to make plays from third and long spots.

The Quarter Back will know that there are some holes in this Baltimore Secondary that can be exploited, but a desperate Ravens team may still have the edge in this big prime time game.

There have been some doubts about this New England team seeing as they have yet to beat anyone of note outside of Buffalo in the first game, but the Bills earned revenge in Week 15 and the Ravens will feel they are still a genuine Super Bowl contender.

It is a game that matters more to the home team and Lamar Jackson can play well enough to help build on the big win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Patriots are unlikely to roll over under Head Coach Mike Vrabel, but they have a tough task to bounce back from a really disappointing defeat. It also helps that the Patriots can still win the Division even if they lose this game and they will maintain control of their own destiny and the Baltimore Ravens have the clarity to secure an important win and they can cover too.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 1 Point @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 37-43, - 9.81 Units (80 Units Staked, - 12.26% Yield)

NFL Week 16 Picks 2014 (December 18-22)

Week 15 Thoughts

A clear picture of Head Coaches about to be out of a job has developed: Some changes that are likely to be made are perhaps unfortunate, for example the horrible situation that is way beyond Rex Ryan's control at the New York Jets, but so many other Head Coaches are just about done with their current teams in the NFL.

Jim Harbaugh has overseen a poor season, relative to recent years at least, for the San Francisco 49ers and it now seems a given that he will be leaving this team.

Mike Smith will likely only be retained by the Atlanta Falcons if that team wins the NFC South and they can do that by winning out.

Marc Trestman is reportedly out of Chicago, but the Bears have so many issues which start with what they can do about Jay Cutler at Quarter Back and the huge contract they gave him before this season.

Joe Philbin is unlikely to be kept as the Miami Dolphins Head Coach thanks to a second successive season when the team has missed their chance to get to the Play Offs in December.

Should Denver be concerned with Terrance Knighton's comments regarding a Super Bowl win? Knighton himself has said that every player on a Play Off team should be thinking the same way and Tom Brady made it clear that none of the New England players will be looking ahead nor talking about things, but will let their play on the field dictate matters.

So should Denver be concerned they have offered the Patriots, as well as other potential Play Off opponents, some bulletin board material after 'Pot Roast's' comments? Personally I don't think so.

Most outside of the Broncos locker room saw this team as a potential Super Bowl Champion and it doesn't surprise me that the players believe they are capable of doing that too.

What would be a concern is some of the issues around Peyton Manning in recent weeks as this team is not going anywhere without their star Quarter Back behind Center. Manning has not been throwing the ball well and some are suggesting fatigue has gotten to him considering Denver had a very early 'Bye' week, while even some of the throws being completed have looked ugly coming out of his hands.

Getting a First Round bye in the Play Offs could be a huge benefit for Manning, but he just hasn't looked himself over the last month and I do have some concern for the Broncos that Manning has perhaps hit the wall this season.

So how does Johnny Football time feel for fans of the Cleveland Browns? There were a few Play Off places decided in Week 15, but seemingly most people were interested in seeing how Johnny Manziel would do in his first NFL start.

It was about as horrific a performance as anyone could have imagined!

I have not been sold about Manziel's potential as a long-term starter in the NFL and I thought the Cleveland Browns made a big mistake not taking Teddy Bridgewater or Derek Carr ahead of him in the Draft, a mistake that could set the franchise back a few more years.

The Browns are desperate for success and were right to give Manziel a chance to see what he has in the final three games of the season with the Play Offs already a reach. They will be desperate for much improved performances in the next two weeks to show the fans that there is some potential in what Manziel will do for this team, but another couple of performances like the one he produced against Cincinnati will really put the team in a tough spot.

Wasting a First Round pick on Manziel is going to be tough to overcome immediately and Cleveland may want to give the Quarter Back another full off-season before making any long-term rash judgements. But I am not going to be surprised at all if there isn't a couple of veteran Quarter Backs brought in to challenge Manziel for the starting spot in the 2015 season barring two huge performances for him over the last two weeks of the season.

The NFC South has been terrible, but the next two weeks are full of drama: The winner of the NFC South is not going to have a winning record, although the New Orleans Saints are still in a position to finish the season 8-8, and it has been a poor year for teams in the Division.

However, the last two weeks should produce some fascinating viewing with New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina all in a position to win the Division and the schedule makers have made sure that these teams are facing one another.

The Saints host the Atlanta Falcons this week and then the Carolina Panthers will visit Atlanta in Week 17 and it could be all to play for for any of those teams by next week. Even if the Saints beat Atlanta this week, Carolina can still win out and take the Division as long as New Orleans lose in Tampa Bay next week.

Nothing has been easy for teams in the NFC South this season so it would be something of a surprise if New Orleans clinch this week without the drama the Division has provided all season, but it will be up to Carolina to make sure the South title goes one more week by beating Cleveland at home.

Aaron Rodgers is still the MVP and Green Bay Packers will make the Play Offs: Aaron Rodgers was bamboozled by the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 and admitted he played a 'stinker', but it shouldn't take away from what has been an MVP season for the Quarter Back.

With games against Tampa Bay and Detroit left, I still expect the Green Bay Packers to make the Play Offs, although the biggest issue for them may be the fact that they have likely lost home field advantage through the Play Offs.

Seattle are closing in on the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which will make them the favourites to win that Conference and it is going to be a big ask for the Green Bay Packers to go back to Seattle and win after their Week 1 loss there.

At Lambeau Field, the Packers have been dominant so losing out on the Number 1 Seed would be a real disappointment, although Green Bay won't give up fighting for it. If the Packers win out, they need Arizona and Seattle to drop a game each and that looks has a chance with those teams facing one another this week.

Play Off Prediction: AFC- New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Cincinnati

NFC- Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, New Orleans, Arizona, Detroit

Top Ten

1) Seattle Seahawks (10-4): Defense is playing to the level of last season and they are in pole position to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

2) Green Bay Packers (10-4): The loss in Seattle means Green Bay are likely to finish with the Number 2 Seed in the NFC after failing to win out.

3) New England Patriots (11-3): The Patriots can clinch the Number 1 Seed in the AFC by beating the New York Jets and hoping the Cincinnati Bengals beat Denver on Monday Night Football.

4) Denver Broncos (11-3): I was tempted to drop Denver at least one place more because I just don't think Peyton Manning is all there.

5) Detroit Lions (10-4): The Detroit Lions can really prove how much of a Super Bowl contender they are if they win at Lambeau Field in Week 17, but for now that Defense is legitimate enough to pose a threat to win it all.

6) Dallas Cowboys (10-4): Huge win in Philadelphia, but Dallas have to win out to take the NFC East title.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5): The game in Atlanta is one that Pittsburgh could have blown in recent years, but they remain in control of their own destiny in the AFC North.

8) Indianapolis Colts (10-4): Clinched the AFC South, but unlikely to finish better than the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and may already be looking ahead to the Play Offs.

9) Baltimore Ravens (9-5): They did lose to Cincinnati twice in the regular season, but I think the Ravens are the better team and remain the race for the AFC North Division title.

10) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1): Cincinnati are leading the AFC North, but face Denver and Pittsburgh over the last two weeks and might need help to win the Division.

Bottom Five

32) Tennessee Titans (2-12): Lost a vital game against the New York Jets that keeps them in pole position to 'win' the Number 1 pick in the Draft... However, another 'big' game against Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football may determine if Tennessee can secure that.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12): Lovie Smith has a big job to turn this Tampa Bay franchise around, but getting one of the top two Quarter Backs likely coming out of College Football could be a start.

30) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12): Jacksonville used a number of trick plays, got some help from Baltimore's Field Goal kicker missing twice and a bad call resulting in a turnover for them... Yet they still lost by 8 and Blake Bortles may be done for the season.

29) Oakland Raiders (2-12): Derek Carr looks like a potential franchise Quarter Back, but Reggie McKenzie still has some work to do to make Oakland relevant again.

28) Washington Redskins (3-10): Dysfunctional times in Washington show no sign of ending and now the Quarter Back carousel has come back around for Robert Griffin to start.

Week 16 Picks

Week 15 produced a slight winning record, which makes a change after three terrible weeks in a row, and I hope I can at least finish the regular season with two more winning weeks.

Games in Week 16 take place on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday with the festive period meaning the television cameras will be going to a few more games for national coverage than in a normal week.

More Play Off situations will be resolved in the coming days, while other teams will be looking to improve Seeding in what should be another fascinating week in the National Football League.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins Pick: I've been waiting and waiting to see if the line for the Philadelphia Eagles trip to the Washington Redskins would change, but Vegas have held their nerve and the Eagles remain a little more than a Touchdown favourite.

I actually still like the Eagles in this spot against a Washington team that has been dysfunctional to say the least- Jay Gruden looks to be on the hot seat as Head Coach because he continues to defy the owners and his criticism of Robert Griffin III shows little sign of ending.

This week Gruden admitted the Redskins need to play with a lead, clearly not having the faith in RG3 to be put in obvious passing situations. Unfortunately for Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles have played the run pretty effectively all season and even did a fairly good job against Russell Wilson so they may force RG3 to play from third and long situations more than Gruden would want to see.

The Eagles also get a lot of pressure up front and they should be swarming the Quarter Back in that position. On the other hand, the Washington Defense might have some success up front against the Eagles Offensive Line, particularly if Philadelphia struggle to establish the run of their own.

Mark Sanchez has been a little iffy in the pocket, missing some of his targets by wide margins despite his Receivers finding space downfield, but Washington's Secondary is banged up and I expect the Quarter Back has a chance to make some big plays in this one. Turnovers and inaccuracy has been the problem for Sanchez and he has to play a cleaner game than he has produced in the last two weeks if the Eagles are going to come through.

Games between teams in the NFC East are usually very competitive and Washington have spoken about playing spoiler for both Philadelphia and Dallas in their last two games. However, the Redskins have not been consistent enough for me, even if DeSean Jackson has a big game against his former team.

The Redskins are 0-2 against the spread as the home underdog this season, while their four home losses have all come by at least 10 points. In fact, 3 of those 4 losses have been by 20 points or more and the Eagles have a quick strike Offense that can put up big points very quickly. If Philadelphia get into a double digit lead, it may be too much for Washington to drag back and I like the Eagles to cover.


San Diego Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: It seems the San Diego Chargers are a public underdog in the second of the Saturday games in the NFL and I do believe they are the pick in this game, although only for a small interest.

The pick is mainly because I want to fade the San Francisco 49ers who have been eliminated from the Play Offs with their second loss to the Seattle Seahawks in a three week period. Jim Harbaugh looks to be moving on at the end of the season, Ray McDonald has caused more issues and has been released, there are injuries on both sides of the ball and Colin Kaepernick has had a really tough season where he has regressed from where the 49ers believed he was last season.

If the San Diego Chargers weren't so banged up themselves and on the brink of Play Off elimination, I would perhaps be a little more keen on this game. Unfortunately, Philip Rivers is hurt, although expected to play, while Keenan Allen has been lost for the season.

The 49ers Defense is giving up a few more yards on the ground than usual and the Secondary has been hit by some big plays, plus this unit gave their all to keep the game in Seattle as competitive as it was. San Francisco as a whole put so much into that game that I can't see where they get the motivation to play San Diego, an inter-Conference game, with nothing on the line.

San Diego's Defense has played pretty well in recent games, but they will need more from the banged up Rivers. However, San Francisco are just 1-2 against the spread as the home favourite of less than three points and the team playing against Seattle are 0-8 over the last eight weeks.

That is enough to think the underdog could take advantage of a team whose focus could be gone with the future direction of the franchise up in the air.


Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It would be a bigger surprise than at the end of last season if Stephen Ross does not decide to dispense of Joe Philbin once the regular season comes to a close. The lame duck Head Coach has seen his Miami Dolphins falter down the stretch for the second season in a row and the Play Offs already look a distant hope for the team in the strong AFC.

Recent games have seen Ryan Tannehill under immense pressure from the pass rush and it is unlikely to change in this game with the Minnesota Vikings very capable of getting to the Quarter Back. Lamar Miller has struggled to establish the run to ease the pressure on Tannehill and there is no guarantee the Dolphins can do that in this game even if the Minnesota Vikings have not been that stout against the run all season.

Injuries on the Offensive Line has made it difficult for Miami to get the run going and also to protect Tannehill and that has seen the latter respond with a short passing Offense that struggles when they are behind. The additional pressure that Minnesota have got up front has also protected their Secondary and they have given up less than 200 passing yards per game in their last three games and did well to slow down the Detroit Offense for much of last week.

Teddy Bridgewater has also shown improvement regularly and he looks like a player that will develop exactly the way that Minnesota would want. It might not be all down to Bridgewater either as Miami have begun to struggle against the run and even Matt Asiata may be able to establish something on the ground.

That should ease things for Bridgewater and I think he can hit his Receivers Charles Johnson, Kyle Rudolph and Greg Jennings down the field.

The line looks too big in this game considering how these teams have played in recent games. Minnesota may have put a big effort together against Detroit last week, but this is a team that has been playing hard for Mike Zimmer through much of the season. On the other hand, Miami might be a little demoralised with their Play Off hopes almost certainly dashed and they are playing for a Head Coach that is very unlikely to be here in 2015.

Minnesota have thrived as the underdog in recent seasons, going 21-13 against the spread over the last three seasons, and they have bounced back from Divisional losses to go 3-1 against the spread this season. With almost a Touchdown amount of points being handed to the Vikings, it is a big ask for Miami to cover under their current pressures and I believe the underdog road team has to be the pick.


Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: There are some real similarities between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens with the way their Defenses have been performing as both teams can get after the Quarter Back as well as slowing down the run game of their opponents. Their Secondary play has not been the best, but is protected by the pressure they have got up front and they have some big names on the Defensive Line that have made waves in the NFL.

However, both teams also have decent Offensive Lines that have protected their respective Quarter Backs so this could be a tough day for the likes of JJ Watt, Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs to continue building on the big numbers they have.

One major difference between the teams is the fact that Baltimore have their Super Bowl winning Quarter Back behind Center in Joe Flacco, while Houston are going to have to go with either Thad Lewis or Case Keenum. That is down to the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Savage joined Ryan Mallett on the sidelines for the Texans and the team suffered a big blow to their post-season chances with the loss in Indianapolis last week.

The Ravens have so much still to achieve this season and I think Flacco will have enough big plays to make sure Baltimore get one step closer to earning a Play Off berth. I also feel that Keenum or Lewis may be a little rusty and could hold the ball a touch longer than required to be sure of themselves and that should give the Ravens pass rush the chance to really crash down on them.

Another key for Baltimore could be the presence of Gary Kubiak who was the Houston Head Coach until the end of last season. He will have a few tricks and suggestions up his sleeve at Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Ravens and could give Flacco the chance to make some big plays in this one.

Houston also put in a huge effort against the Indianapolis Colts last week and came up a little short and that may have left some players perhaps a little downhearted, especially with the Quarter Back issues too. The Ravens have been a decent favourite this season, including going 2-1 against the spread on the road, and I think their Defensive Line makes the bigger plays and helps the team come through with a Touchdown win.


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: This has been one big mess of a season for the Chicago Bears and they are very likely to end it with the firing of Marc Trestman as Head Coach. There are also question marks about Phil Emery as General Manager and Jay Cutler as Quarter Back with the latter being benched for the final two games for Jimmy Clauson.

Yes, Jimmy Clauson, the Quarter Back with a 1-9 record as a starter! I am not sure whether he sees this as a chance to secure a starting spot for next season or whether he feels like the Christians back in Roman times being led to the Coliseum.

They were being fed to the Lions and it seems like Clauson has been given the same fate this week with the Detroit Defensive Line likely licking their chops in anticipation for this game. They have been so strong against the run which means Clauson won't be able to rely too much on Matt Forte and the penetration this Offensive Line allowed against the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football doesn't bode well for the new Quarter Back.

The Lions have only allowed more than 17 points in 1 of their last 6 games and this Chicago Offense has been so out of sync that it is tough to see them becoming the latest to do that. On the other hand, Matt Stafford should have a bounce back game after struggling against the Minnesota Vikings because this Bears Defense has been about as horrific as they come.

Injuries in the Secondary have been a problem, while teams have also begun to establish the run against Chicago and that will be an issue on Sunday. If the Lions are running the ball effectively, Matt Stafford should have the time to hit Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate for big gains... Then again, even if they don't have a strong running game, Stafford can move effectively enough from pressure to still get the ball to Megatron and Tate and the Lions should pick up from where they left off on Thanksgiving Day against this Defense.

I don't think Detroit will look ahead to the game against Green Bay next week because a loss could see them falling out of the Play Off positions with another at Lambeau Field. The Bears have also shown such little life and now bring in Jimmy Clauson and I am struggling to see them score enough points to keep this close.

Outdoor, cold conditions may slow down Detroit a little, but I would expect them to limit Chicago Offensively and this Bears Defense has not been able to get off the field consistently.

Chicago haven't been good at revenging losses in the same season, going 1-4 against the spread in recent years, while they have failed to cover in their last 5 games as the home underdog. The Lions haven't been a great road favourite themselves, and this is a big number, but I expect they have too much Offense for a Chicago team that has perhaps lost their motivation and whose own Offense has a new Quarter Back to break in.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: This is a huge NFC South game that can go a long way to decide which team will win this Division and move into the Play Offs- the Saints will be on the brink of doing that if they win with a Carolina loss giving them the Division.

On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons know they will be representing the South in the Play Offs if they win out so this game has plenty on the line for both teams.

New Orleans Saints have lost 4 in a row at home, a stunning sequence, but they have managed to stay in pole position in the NFC South thanks to 2 road wins in that time. Drew Brees played very well in Chicago on Monday Night Football, but I can't say I am convinced that the Saints have turned the corner by beating the awful Bears and the blow out loss at home against the Panthers is hard to ignore.

Brees should have considerable success against this Atlanta Secondary that was torn apart by the Green Bay Packers recently, while he should be helped with Mark Ingram likely to establish the run too.

However, Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Offense won't be too worried about getting the chains moving themselves, even if Julio Jones is beginning to look like a doubt for the game. Harry Douglas can fill in, even if not to the level of Jones, and his play can help Ryan in the passing game.

A key for Atlanta is that they should be able to get either Steven Jackson or Jacquizz Rodgers considering the Saints are allowing 6.6 yards per carry over their last three games. The Saints can't sell out to stop the run simply because of the threat Ryan possesses in the passing game and this has all the makings of a shoot-out that will be decided by last possession.

Atlanta haven't played well as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, going 0-3 against the spread in that spot, but the Saints are just 4-8 against the spread as the favourite this season. In fact, the Saints are just 1-6 against the spread as the home favourite and have lost their last 4 home games straight up despite being favoured by 7, 10, 2.5 and 9.5 points.

Games between these teams do tend to be tight affairs too with the last two games in the Superdome being decided by a combined 10 points, albeit both in favour of New Orleans. Neither Defense has played well this season so both Quarter Backs can have a lot of success and I think Atlanta can keep this within the number.


Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The Green Bay Packers were not on the same page against the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 which may have cost them the chance to host the NFC Play Offs, but all is not lost for this team. Earning a bye in the Wild Card Round is very much within their grasp by winning their last 2 games of the season and the Packers should have a really good chance to bounce back from last week.

The Packers Offense is going up against a Tampa Bay Defense that is banged up and sitting the likes of Gerald McCoy for the rest of the season. Aaron Rodgers won't have a lot of pressure on him and that will only make it easier for the Quarter Back to get back to the form that makes him the favourite to land the MVP award for the regular season.

Tampa Bay's Secondary has struggled for much of the season and injuries across the board for their Defense suggests Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy will all have strong games too.

It is a big number for the Packers to cover considering their own problems in the Secondary, but Josh McCown is not Matt Ryan and is likely to be under immense pressure for much of the afternoon. McCown does have the luxury of throwing the ball up to Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, who should both make some big catches for the Buccaneers, but he is also susceptible to a big turnover or two as well as holding the ball too long.

With the Green Bay pass rush being fairly effective in recent games and the Defense playing the run better than earlier in the season, McCown could find himself in third and long and trying to deal with Nick Perry, Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews penetrating the backfield.

Green Bay haven't played as well on the road all season, but the Packers have gone 3-1 against the spread following a loss, although only one of those games was on the road. However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just 1-5 against the spread at home and I am not convinced they have the Offense to try and keep up with an angry Green Bay team that will want a big bounce back from last week.

I am concerned that the Packers haven't been as good on the road this season as at Lambeau Field, but injuries to the Tampa Bay Defense should make this a more routine day in the office for them.


New York Giants @ St Louis Rams Pick: The New York Giants have continued to play hard despite being out of Play Off contention, although the one concern is that they are looking ahead to finishing the season against the Philadelphia Eagles.

However, Odell Beckham's arrival on the scene has reinvigorated Eli Manning and I still expect the Receiver to have some big numbers despite coming up against this St Louis Rams Defense. Like the Giants, the Rams have a huge Divisional game coming up in the final week of the season against the Seattle Seahawks so could perhaps be looking ahead to play spoiler.

While their Defense has played so well, the Rams have struggled for consistency on Offense with Shaun Hill at Quarter Back, although Tre Mason has every chance of having a huge day running the ball.

There really isn't a lot I want to say about this game expect that the Giants look like they have been given a lot of points for a team that hasn't given up on the season despite sitting at 5-9. The Rams are off a physical game against the Arizona Cardinals, even if they had additional time to prepare for this game, and I still think that Seattle game will be on their mind.

The Rams might win, but New York have played well enough to keep this close for a small interest.


Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Another public underdog this week are the Indianapolis Colts, but I do think Andrew Luck is going to miss TY Hilton and I like the Dallas Cowboys to win a game that will see them back into the Play Offs.

If DeMarco Murray was to miss out, it would be a big blow to Dallas but it does look like the Running Back will be available for this game. Murray and the Offensive Line have been finding their groove again in recent games, although the Colts have also played the run fairly effectively in recent games.

However, those came against Washington, Cleveland and Houston where the Colts didn't really respect the Quarter Back to the same level that you have to respect what Tony Romo can do. Romo carved up the Philadelphia Secondary last week and while I expect Dez Bryant to have a tougher day in the office against Vontae Davis than against Bradley Fletcher, I still think Romo has enough weapons to move this ball from third and short situations that the running game can provide.

Of course, backing against Andrew Luck isn't going to be much fun, but his Offensive Line has struggled in protection and he has also made some big mistakes in games that haven't been punished like Dallas can. I think you have to be crazy to think Luck doesn't make some big plays in this one against a Dallas Secondary that can make some big mistakes, but losing the downfield target of Hilton is a tough loss.

With the Colts also earning their place in the Play Off last week, there could be some players perhaps wanting to take a breath and rest some niggles ahead of the post-season. Dallas haven't been as good at home as they have on the road which has to be a concern for them, but they are playing a team that could just have relaxed enough.

So I said I think Dallas win, but does that mean I think they cover? Getting more than a Field Goal seems to be a little too much to be given to the Colts considering they are 12-9 against the spread as the underdog since Andrew Luck has been with the team. Take in the fact that Dallas have been a poor home favourite to back and that they have lost 3 of their last 4 at home, plus two of their triplets could be limited in this one and this has the makings of a field goal kind of game.


Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: This is another game I don't want to spend too much time on despite the winner going to be the favourite to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

Why not? Ryan Lindley is why not! He has never thrown a Touchdown in the NFL and is now facing a Seattle Defense that is playing as well as when they won the Super Bowl last season. Bruce Arians said there are some packages for Logan Thomas too, but I can't imagine either Quarter Back haven't a lot of consistent success.

As good as the Arizona Defense have been playing too and as many times as they got to Russell Wilson when the teams met in Seattle, the Seahawks could make some big turnovers which allow them to cover what is a big number in what could be a low scoring game.

The Seahawks are desperate to win the NFC West, which is likely to bring the Number 1 Seed in the NFC to them too, and I think Wilson makes enough plays and Lindley perhaps turns the ball over a couple of times to allow Seattle to win this by at least ten points.

I will keep the play to minimum stakes because I do respect the Cardinals Defense and home record and this team may dig way deep within themselves for another big effort. Arizona have surprised me constantly this season and while I don't think they are a top team, they have earned my respect.


Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: I am not always a fan of picking these late Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games because some of the heavy action comes in on those games and backing the favourites can be a dangerous play.

However, the Denver Broncos look like a far better team than the Cincinnati Bengals and I think backing Peyton Manning over Andy Dalton in a prime time game is an easy selection to make. Win or lose, Manning should never 'only' be a three point favourite over Dalton in a game that matters in a prime time spot and the play has to be made.

There are some concerns over Manning and the thigh injury he has, although the Quarter Back hasn't looked himself for a few weeks now. Denver have made a point of running the ball more than we have become accustomed to seeing, although they have been effective enough to establish it against Cincinnati in this one too.

Whether that was done to protect an unhealthy Manning, preparation for the January Play Off games or simply because of some key injuries at Receiver, it has raised some questions about Manning. However, he has been doing enough on Offense and the Denver Defense has raised their game to make sure the Broncos remain in a position to try and steal away home field advantage through the Play Offs from the New England Patriots.

Andy Dalton and the Bengals have thrived as the underdog this season, going 5-1 against the spread in that spot, but he hasn't been confident enough in the prime time games which is a concern. The fact that Dalton won't be able to rely on much of a running game and that both Receivers are dealing with some top Corner Backs in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris and it could be another negative prime time performance from the Quarter Back.

Denver have been stout against the run and have a very effective pass rush so Dalton could feel some pressure and mistakes may be made. The Broncos can give up passing yards when they play soft coverage with a lead, but this is a team that hasn't allowed more than 17 points in their last three games, although it is arguable that Cincinnati are the best Offensive team they have faced in that time.

The Broncos are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 road games, while Cincinnati have been blown out in their last 2 home games. Both teams need this victory to achieve some of their goals, but it has to be Manning over Dalton for me and I will back Denver to cover the three point spread.

0 Unit Pick: Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points, Carolina Panthers - 4 Points, Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points, New York Jets + 10.5 Points, Buffalo Bills - 7 Points

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 8 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 6 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
New York Giants + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Week 15: 5-4, + 1.56 Units
Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 60-67-2, - 11.90 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units