Week 15 of the NFL season has been split over a number of days and this is another pivotal week with some big games to come with the regular season winding down.
The majority of games will be played on Sunday, but we have two Saturday evening offerings too for those who want to watch some Football around the College Football Championship Games and the big Boxing fight in Texas.
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos Pick: Anyone under the age of 25 years old will not really remember too many times the New England Patriots were not dominating the AFC East and getting into a position to earn a very high Seed in the PlayOffs. It is not the case in 2020 as the departure of Tom Brady has left the Patriots short, but the Buffalo Bills are more than just exploiting a vacuum of power left behind.
At 10-3 the Bills are on the brink of winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995, but they look like a team that will more than just make up the numbers in the PlayOffs. Their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday means the Bills have already shown the rest of the AFC that they are now built to have successes in January and perhaps even beyond then.
This is never an easy place to play, but the Denver Broncos will already be analysing the roster for the 2021 season as they struggle with their 5-8 record. A big question for John Elway is whether he still believes Drew Lock is capable of becoming the franchise Quarter Back for the Broncos who have never really found a replacement for Peyton Manning since he retired as Super Bowl Champion.
Drew Lock has really struggled for consistency and he is going to be challenged in this one, especially if the Buffalo Secondary continue to show the kind of improvement they have in recent weeks. For much of the season the Bills have struggled on this side of the ball which was a surprise considering Sean McDermott's Defensive background, but they look to have turned a corner and could make the Broncos one-dimensional here.
The Buffalo Defensive Line has been the key for the successful performances on this side of the ball and they have been able to clamp down on the run to make teams one-dimensional against them. It isn't just the yards per carry that has been restricted, but the Bills have held teams to under 70 yards per game on the ground on average across their last three starts and they will feel it is important to be stout up front in this one.
Stopping Denver from running the ball will mean there is more pressure on Drew Lock at Quarter Back but he has been inaccurate and that has led to mistakes being made. You would think Lock could have some success through the air in this one, but the pressure will ramp up if Denver are playing from behind and I think Lock could be baited into a couple of Interceptions which is an area Buffalo have been excelling in of late.
It could be a huge problem for the Broncos if Buffalo are able to pick up from where they left off against a better Pittsburgh Defense than the one they are going to be seeing on Saturday. The Steelers are banged up, but so are Denver and Josh Allen looks to have recovered from a blip in the middle of the season to get back to throwing the ball very well.
I think Allen could be a real threat with his legs in this one, while both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss should be able to rip off some big yards against the banged up Denver Defensive Line who have struggled to contain the run. That is only going to open things up down the field with injuries and suspension decimating the Broncos Secondary too and I expect Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis to all have successes in this one.
Make no mistake this is a big spread for any road team to cover, but the Bills are playing with confidence and can almost wrap up the Division with a win on the road. While the spot is not ideal off a big win over Pittsburgh and with two Divisional games to come, Buffalo can also make a statement to the rest of the AFC who will be watching in a prime time Saturday slot days before Christmas.
The Broncos have been much tougher to beat at Mile High where the conditions can wear out visitors, but Buffalo are 10-4-2 against the spread in their last sixteen games on the road. As long as they can avoid any mistakes, Buffalo should be able to pull away for a big win here and I will look for them to cover this mark.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Things are quite clear for the Green Bay Packers with three games left in the 2020 regular season and that is they will receive the Bye from the NFC if they can win all those they have left to play. Anything less will open the door for one of their rivals to take the one and only Bye spot that is going to be given to the top Seed in each Conference and I do think that Bye is going to be very, very important this season.
The Packers are at 10-3 and have won three games in a row and they will be favourites to win their final three games. First up is the Carolina Panthers who have been very competitive even if a 4-9 record would not suggest that.
Last week they were hit with a Covid-19 outbreak that may have limited their time in preparation for the latest loss to the Denver Broncos, but I expect the Panthers to be much better all around with an additional week to get ready for this game. The Panthers also look like they will match up well with the Packers on the Offensive side of the ball and that is going to give them a chance to at least remain competitive.
For much of the season they have been able to do that even without Christian McCaffrey and I have no doubt that the best option for Carolina is to keep the Running Back on the sidelines until the 2021 season now. Mike Davis will get the majority of carries in this one, but the Panthers Offensive Line have played well even without their star Running Back behind them and that should be important here.
The Packers Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run much this season and I do think Carolina can punish them on the ground which will be important for two reasons. Of course staying in front of the chains will be important for any team, but it will also keep Aaron Rodgers and the powerful Green Bay Offense freezing on the sidelines as Carolina prolong drives.
Being in front of the chains is important for the passing game as that is one area the Green Bay Packers Defensive unit have improved with injuries clearing up. For the most part Teddy Bridgewater is someone who will look after the ball and make good decisions when throwing, while he also has some decent Receivers who the Quarter Back can target in the short passing game.
The Panthers should be able to have some Offensive success, but stopping the Green Bay Packers is going to be a huge challenge for them. Last week they allowed Drew Lock to have a lot of success, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game is considerably better than the one the Denver Broncos run out on the field and that should see Rodgers have another big game.
It may all be on the Rodgers arm because the Carolina Defensive Line have actually stiffened up to stop the run- Aaron Jones will still be a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield, but him and Jamaal Williams have not really been able to establish the run in recent games as the banged up Green Bay Offensive Line have not opened big holes.
Having Aaron Rodgers does mean teams focus on stopping the pass which will give the Running Backs a chance, but I do think the Quarter Back will be key to the outcome for the Green Bay Packers. He should have a very big game and Aaron Rodgers is definitely getting the most out of the Receivers not called Davante Adams.
It would be a huge upset if Green Bay are not able to win the game, but Carolina are 5-0 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog and they are getting more than a Touchdown start here. The Panthers are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight as the underdog overall too which has to be respected.
Green Bay are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite, but I think the Panthers might be worth backing to find a backdoor cover at least.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: There is one extra place in the NFL PlayOffs for both Conferences this season, but the loser of this Week 15 NFC North Divisional battle is likely going to know that their 2020 year is over. Both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings are at 6-7 with three games to play and I don't think 8-8 is going to cut it in the NFC this season so a defeat is likely to be curtains for the season.
In Week 14 the Chicago Bears showed some heart and resiliency to beat the Houston Texans and they may have just turned things around at the right time. It feels an age ago that the Bears were 5-1, but six losses in a row looked to have finished the Matt Nagy era in Chicago.
However that win may have just saved the Head Coach and Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky who lost his starting job earlier this season. I don't think anyone associated with the Bears really believe Trubisky is the long-term answer at the position, but if he can take Chicago back into the PlayOffs and perhaps even reach the Divisional Round there may be some willing to give him a bit more time to establish his spot leading the team.
This could be something of a shoot out as the Bears will be taking on a Minnesota Vikings team who have been banged up Defensively, but who have continued to be competitive in games even if they are 2-2 across their last four starts. The blow out loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have hurt, but Kirk Cousins and the Offensive unit could have a bounce back performance at the very least.
That will mainly be down to Dalvin Cook at Running Back who has had some big games against tough Defensive Lines through the course of the 2020 season. This is another big challenge for Cook and it is important for the Vikings to find a way to get their best player established on the ground to try and ease the pressure on Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back.
He could be an important player catching the ball out of the backfield too, but if the Bears are able to clamp down on Cook on the ground it will mean Minnesota throwing from third and relatively long. The Chicago Secondary have given up some big plays through the air in recent games, but the pass rush is still a huge strength for the Bears and I am not sure the Vikings Offensive Line can stand up in protection if Cousins needs time to throw down the field.
If the Vikings are running the ball well, it will mean Cousins is able to employ play-action passes and he has some decent Receiving options in veteran Adam Thielen and hot prospect Justin Jefferson. That should mean Minnesota have a chance to move the chains, but Chicago have to believe containing Dalvin Cook will make the Vikings a touch predictable and there have also been some kicking problems for Minnesota which may see drives end without points.
Enough has been seen from Minnesota to believe they will have some Offensive successes though and it will be up to Mitchell Trubisky and the Chicago Offensive unit to match them if they are going to earn the 'upset' on the road. One aspect that Trubisky has really helped is in the running game with an ability to make plays with his legs meaning eyes in the backfield can sometimes move away from David Montgomery who has been playing well.
The entire Chicago Offensive Line should be given some credit for the big gains that the team have been ripping off in recent games and they do look more than capable of establishing the run against this Minnesota Defensive Line. Injuries have just seen the team worn down up front and the Vikings don't get a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back when they have dropped back to throw and I think that is going to help the Bears move the ball effectively.
Mitchell Trubisky can be hard to trust, but he has a good Receiving corps and being in third and manageable spots should just make things more comfortable for him. The Vikings are banged up across the levels in their Defensive unit and I think that should mean Trubisky is able to keep this close and perhaps earn the victory for his team.
While the Vikings are favoured, their last two wins have come by a combined four points and I do think the Bears look good with the points they are receiving in this one.
The Bears have revenge on their mind after losing by 6 points at home earlier this season, but they are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in this Division rivalry.
Minnesota have won six games this season, but they are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight as the favourite and they are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite. I do think the Bears match up better against the Vikings with Mitchell Trubisky at Quarter Back rather than Nick Foles, while I think the Bears pass rush may still be able to stall a couple more drives than their Vikings counterparts and I do like the road team with the points.
MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New England Patriots + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
