The draw for the Montreal Masters was made on Friday and all of the top players are going to be in Canada, except the notable absence of Roger Federer. He has been complaining about a back issue following his couple of tournaments in Europe in July, but it is probably a decision made with the knowledge that he has a lot more points to defend in Cincinnati having missed the Canadian Masters last year due to his participation at the Olympics.
I'll have a full preview of the coming tournaments either on Saturday evening, or more likely on Sunday, as the Tour gets set for the run towards the US Open.
The Final at Kitzbuhel will be taking place on Saturday this week while the rest of the tournaments this week will have reached the Semi Final stage.
Marcel Granollers + 2.5 games v Juan Monaco: Anyone who followed the outright picks earlier this week would have Juan Monaco in the bag to win this tournament at a decent price and the Argentine is favoured to win this Final, although I certainly don't think it will be easy.
When you look at how these two players match up against one another, you certainly notice that Marcel Granollers has the more effective serve and can certainly pick up the cheaper points while Monaco has to work that much harder to hold on to serve.
We have also seen more lapses in form from Monaco of the two players this week although 2.5 games has proven not to be a terrible burden to cover for players, especially when one players loses heart in a match.
However, even with that in mind, I just have a feeling that this is going to be decided in three close sets and there is also a slight chance that Monaco gives up his set with a 62/63 score that will make this spread look a lot healthier during the course of the match. Granollers is certainly capable of pushing Monaco in this match and he can find a way to make this a real match and I believe the Spaniard does have a real chance of even causing the shock and winning the title here.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Dmitry Tursunov: Dmitry Tursunov really struggled with his second serve in his Quarter Final win yesterday and there were also signs that this long week is beginning to take a toll on him physically. He won't be able to be so generous with his double faults, which totalled at 13 yesterday, if he is to beat John Isner in this Semi Final.
After winning in Atlanta last week, Isner has shown little sign that he is feeling all the tennis he has played in the last couple of weeks and he was serving huge stuff in his win over Marcos Baghdatis yesterday. It was probably the best performance the big man has put in in the last couple of weeks as he found a way to create chances on the Cypriot's serve, although he was helped by a poor first serve percentage Baghdatis had.
The scoreboard pressure could be the biggest thing for Tursunov to overcome if Isner serves as well as he did yesterday. I don't really think Tursunov is the best return of serve and his own first serve percentage can be a little too low and will give Isner the chance to attack the ball.
If Tursunov is also gift wrapping points with double faults, it will only take a couple of unforced errors for Isner to take control of the match and I think the American reaches his second Final on the hard courts in succession with a 76, 64 win.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Tommy Haas: When I wrote my outright preview of the tournaments this week, I picked Tommy Haas to come through the top half of the draw with the feeling that Juan Martin Del Potro could possibly be caught cold early in the draw.
However, the big man, and favourite to win Washington for a third time, has come through the draw and he has totally dominated Haas in the past and is playing to a level which makes it tough to see any other kind of result in this one.
Del Potro has won all four matches they have played in the past, winning all eight sets they have played and only two of those sets has seen Haas win at least 4 games. It is understandable that Del Potro has been dominant in the match up as he does almost everything, bar volleying, better than Haas and has the consistency and power to overwhelm him.
Tommy Haas hasn't been in great form this week but has shown some heart in coming through tough battles to reach this Semi Final, but this looks a level too much, especially with the way Del Potro has played. I wouldn't be surprised if there is yet another set where the World Number 7 grabs a double break of serve before winning it and thus helping himself to a cover en route to the Final.
Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Virginie Razzano: Virginie Razzano beat Petra Kvitova in a long three set match yesterday and it will be interesting to see how she responds physically to the battle she went through to reach the Semi Final. It doesn't help that she is playing Sam Stosur, a player very comfortable on the hard courts of North America and one that can put pressure on her opponent with a strong serve.
Stosur is having a good week so far and her surprise win over Agnieszka Radwanska yesterday makes her the favourite to reach the Final. I do think she will be the one pushing all the tennis in this one as her serve can be very effective on these courts, while Razzano is a little hit and miss behind her own.
The biggest issue could be whether Razzano has recovered from her win over Kvitova with this match starting a little under 24 hours after she came through to the Semi Final- physically, Razzano has struggled for some time and that could be an issue against a player she has never beaten. I can see this being close for a set, but losing that could see Razzano lose some heart and belief and lead to a Stosur 75, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-15, - 6.24 Units (52 Units Staked, - 12% Yield)
Showing posts with label Carlsbad Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlsbad Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, 3 August 2013
Thursday, 1 August 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (August 1st)
The strange week continues as each pick takes one step forwards, while another takes a step back. I do feel they have been missing a little bit of luck that would have made this a much stronger week to this point, although I have also mixed in some really bad calls, the most recent of those being picking Laura Robson to keep her match close with Petra Kvitova (lost 61 62).
We have reached the Quarter Final stage at the tournament in Kitzbuhel, where the tournament will finish a day before the other two events in Washington and Carlsbad and those latter two tournaments will have their own Quarter Finals beginning on Friday. That means Thursday will be the day that Third Round action is completed at both events as long as the rain doesn't delay Washington any more than it was doing on Wednesday evening.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: It has only been a couple of months since these two players met in the First Round at the French Open and Juan Monaco must be kicking himself that he let a two set lead slip in that match.
Monaco seems to have a lot of fluctuations in his level of play these days and that will be the reason why he has been dropping in the World Rankings and he has fallen off the standard he set for himself last year on the Tour. He still can perform at a really good level for a set, but then things seem to go awry for no real reason.
He can't afford to do that against Daniel Gimeno-Traver who is a very capable player on the clay courts. However, the Spaniard hadn't been in a great run of form before his wins in the first two matches here this week and he does need to raise his level a little more if he is to spring a surprise.
Gimeno-Traver can be effective behind serve when he is on form, but the second serve will present Monaco some chances in this match. The conditions should aid the first serve for Gimeno-Traver here, but it may also give the Monaco groundstrokes some bite and I believe the Number 2 seed will come through 64, 64.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: I mentioned in the picks yesterday that Fernando Verdasco has the tendency to wander off in matches from a mental point of view and that was clear in his Second Round win. What looked like a routine match became a dogfight in the second set and he failed to serve out the match before coming through in a tough tie-break and he won't be able to do that again in this Quarter Final.
He is facing a confident, two-time Champion in Kitzbuhel as he takes on Robin Haase- the last ten days, the Dutchman has shown plenty of good form and he has been serving effectively which will make him a tough out this week.
The serve could be the entire key to this match as both players can get double-faultitis at any time and it may even come down to at what point of the match they throw that in. Both Verdasco and Haase have been in strong form so I don't think it is a stretch to say the player who makes the best use of their big first serve and steers clear of giving away free points with double faults will be the winner.
I think this will be a fascinating match, but I just have the feeling that Verdasco's week of rest last week will bode well for him and Haase may just see the end of his run of success here in Kitzbuhel. I see the Spaniard winning a tight battle 63, 76.
Marcel Granollers - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Leonardo Mayer opened up the top section of the draw by taking out the Number 1 seed in the Second Round, but I think he may just have opened the door for someone else to take the Semi Final spot. That someone else is going to be Marcel Granollers who could be a little too consistent in this Quarter Final match.
Granollers has been beaten by Fabio Fognini and Robin Haase in the last two tournaments he has played, both players who went on to the Final in those events, which shows that he is in good form, while he is solely concentrating on the singles this week.
The Spaniard has a decent serve and he is fairly consistent off both wings off the ground. That should give him a good foundation against Leonardo Mayer, who is another player that is very comfortable on the slower surfaces.
This may be the best season that Mayer has had on the Tour since 2009, but it hasn't been a stellar one and he hasn't been in the best form since returning from an injury suffered earlier this season. However, he can string together some very good points and there is a chance that he can steal a set in this one, although Mayer is also someone who can drop his head and drop a set either 61 or 62.
There is every chance he can steal a set in this one, but I like Granollers to come through and reach the Semi Final with a 62, 46, 64 win.
Radek Stepanek - 1.5 games v Dmitry Tursunov: The layers are finding it hard to split these two veterans with the slight edge going to Radek Stepanek and I can't argue with that.
Out of the two players, it is Dmitry Tursunov who has had the better season as he once again becomes a regular on the main Tour, with some early successes moving him back into a decent position in the World Rankings. The Russian was one of the more interesting characters on the Tour a few years ago, but has drifted down the Rankings as poor form and injuries took their toll.
He still possesses a decent first serve that can set up the points and he will be able to get a few cheap points out of it, but he will want to keep the percentage high if he is to win this one. His problem is that Stepanek is very comfortable putting pressure on his opponent by attacking the net and the Czech player, who has had an injury affected season, has served well in his two wins this week.
I am not convinced that Tursunov has the consistency to find enough passes to win this match, although there is the possibility of this going into a deciding set. In my opinion, Stepanek will see enough second serves to get on the front foot and win this one 63, 46, 64.
Jelena Jankovic - 3.5 games v Urszula Radwanska: At this point of her career, Urszula Radwanska is becoming a little more comfortable beating those players she is expected to, but she is yet to make the breakthrough of taking out one of the big names on the WTA Tour.
While Jelena Jankovic isn't the player of a few years ago, she is still a very capable performer on her day and has the ability to put Radwanska under a lot of pressure. The return of serve is one of Jankovic's strengths and I expect her to use that attribute to break serve and the key to this match is whether we see the decent serve Jankovic possesses or the one that she has a problem holding on to.
I do expect a few breaks of serve in the match, but I think Jankovic is still capable of extracting enough errors from Radwanska to come through in straight sets. However, she can be the type of player that throws in a horrible performance when you least expect it so I am hoping we see the performance she is capable of in this match.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: Ana Ivanovic split with Nigel Sears after her shock exit at Wimbledon and I would be surprised if the former French Open Champion and World Number 1 gets back to the very pinnacle of the women's game. She has a big game, but consistency is lacking while she can lose all rhythm in her serve and that puts her under immense pressure with too many unforced errors becoming her downfall.
Playing someone like Coco Vandeweghe could be beneficial as she is another that will look to get on the front foot and her own lack of consistency means she will give Ivanovic a number of free points in this match through her own unforced errors.
Both players are certainly capable of falling away in a match and rapidly reaching the finish line when they are off their game. Neither really strikes me as someone who would have the fightback if things start to go desperately wrong, although I favour Ivanovic in that position more than Vandeweghe.
The Serb has had a number of really surprising losses over the last twelve months, but I think she will be a little too good for Vandeweghe and record a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.03 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.54 Units (28 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
We have reached the Quarter Final stage at the tournament in Kitzbuhel, where the tournament will finish a day before the other two events in Washington and Carlsbad and those latter two tournaments will have their own Quarter Finals beginning on Friday. That means Thursday will be the day that Third Round action is completed at both events as long as the rain doesn't delay Washington any more than it was doing on Wednesday evening.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: It has only been a couple of months since these two players met in the First Round at the French Open and Juan Monaco must be kicking himself that he let a two set lead slip in that match.
Monaco seems to have a lot of fluctuations in his level of play these days and that will be the reason why he has been dropping in the World Rankings and he has fallen off the standard he set for himself last year on the Tour. He still can perform at a really good level for a set, but then things seem to go awry for no real reason.
He can't afford to do that against Daniel Gimeno-Traver who is a very capable player on the clay courts. However, the Spaniard hadn't been in a great run of form before his wins in the first two matches here this week and he does need to raise his level a little more if he is to spring a surprise.
Gimeno-Traver can be effective behind serve when he is on form, but the second serve will present Monaco some chances in this match. The conditions should aid the first serve for Gimeno-Traver here, but it may also give the Monaco groundstrokes some bite and I believe the Number 2 seed will come through 64, 64.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: I mentioned in the picks yesterday that Fernando Verdasco has the tendency to wander off in matches from a mental point of view and that was clear in his Second Round win. What looked like a routine match became a dogfight in the second set and he failed to serve out the match before coming through in a tough tie-break and he won't be able to do that again in this Quarter Final.
He is facing a confident, two-time Champion in Kitzbuhel as he takes on Robin Haase- the last ten days, the Dutchman has shown plenty of good form and he has been serving effectively which will make him a tough out this week.
The serve could be the entire key to this match as both players can get double-faultitis at any time and it may even come down to at what point of the match they throw that in. Both Verdasco and Haase have been in strong form so I don't think it is a stretch to say the player who makes the best use of their big first serve and steers clear of giving away free points with double faults will be the winner.
I think this will be a fascinating match, but I just have the feeling that Verdasco's week of rest last week will bode well for him and Haase may just see the end of his run of success here in Kitzbuhel. I see the Spaniard winning a tight battle 63, 76.
Marcel Granollers - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Leonardo Mayer opened up the top section of the draw by taking out the Number 1 seed in the Second Round, but I think he may just have opened the door for someone else to take the Semi Final spot. That someone else is going to be Marcel Granollers who could be a little too consistent in this Quarter Final match.
Granollers has been beaten by Fabio Fognini and Robin Haase in the last two tournaments he has played, both players who went on to the Final in those events, which shows that he is in good form, while he is solely concentrating on the singles this week.
The Spaniard has a decent serve and he is fairly consistent off both wings off the ground. That should give him a good foundation against Leonardo Mayer, who is another player that is very comfortable on the slower surfaces.
This may be the best season that Mayer has had on the Tour since 2009, but it hasn't been a stellar one and he hasn't been in the best form since returning from an injury suffered earlier this season. However, he can string together some very good points and there is a chance that he can steal a set in this one, although Mayer is also someone who can drop his head and drop a set either 61 or 62.
There is every chance he can steal a set in this one, but I like Granollers to come through and reach the Semi Final with a 62, 46, 64 win.
Radek Stepanek - 1.5 games v Dmitry Tursunov: The layers are finding it hard to split these two veterans with the slight edge going to Radek Stepanek and I can't argue with that.
Out of the two players, it is Dmitry Tursunov who has had the better season as he once again becomes a regular on the main Tour, with some early successes moving him back into a decent position in the World Rankings. The Russian was one of the more interesting characters on the Tour a few years ago, but has drifted down the Rankings as poor form and injuries took their toll.
He still possesses a decent first serve that can set up the points and he will be able to get a few cheap points out of it, but he will want to keep the percentage high if he is to win this one. His problem is that Stepanek is very comfortable putting pressure on his opponent by attacking the net and the Czech player, who has had an injury affected season, has served well in his two wins this week.
I am not convinced that Tursunov has the consistency to find enough passes to win this match, although there is the possibility of this going into a deciding set. In my opinion, Stepanek will see enough second serves to get on the front foot and win this one 63, 46, 64.
Jelena Jankovic - 3.5 games v Urszula Radwanska: At this point of her career, Urszula Radwanska is becoming a little more comfortable beating those players she is expected to, but she is yet to make the breakthrough of taking out one of the big names on the WTA Tour.
While Jelena Jankovic isn't the player of a few years ago, she is still a very capable performer on her day and has the ability to put Radwanska under a lot of pressure. The return of serve is one of Jankovic's strengths and I expect her to use that attribute to break serve and the key to this match is whether we see the decent serve Jankovic possesses or the one that she has a problem holding on to.
I do expect a few breaks of serve in the match, but I think Jankovic is still capable of extracting enough errors from Radwanska to come through in straight sets. However, she can be the type of player that throws in a horrible performance when you least expect it so I am hoping we see the performance she is capable of in this match.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: Ana Ivanovic split with Nigel Sears after her shock exit at Wimbledon and I would be surprised if the former French Open Champion and World Number 1 gets back to the very pinnacle of the women's game. She has a big game, but consistency is lacking while she can lose all rhythm in her serve and that puts her under immense pressure with too many unforced errors becoming her downfall.
Playing someone like Coco Vandeweghe could be beneficial as she is another that will look to get on the front foot and her own lack of consistency means she will give Ivanovic a number of free points in this match through her own unforced errors.
Both players are certainly capable of falling away in a match and rapidly reaching the finish line when they are off their game. Neither really strikes me as someone who would have the fightback if things start to go desperately wrong, although I favour Ivanovic in that position more than Vandeweghe.
The Serb has had a number of really surprising losses over the last twelve months, but I think she will be a little too good for Vandeweghe and record a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.03 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.54 Units (28 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Wednesday, 31 July 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (July 31st)
It has been a mixed couple of days to open this week, with some picks just requiring a little bit of luck to get over the line, while some others have just been poor from beginning to end.
For a long time I had Alexandr Dolgopolov on my black list simply because he was far too erratic to really get a good feel of what you're going to get when he enters the court. While he has produced some winning picks over the last twelve months, there is something not quite right with him at the moment and the manner of his last two defeats has to be a real concern for his supporters.
The Second Round will continue at the events on Wednesday as the tournaments keep moving forward with the next Masters tournament fast approaching.
Victor Hanescu v Albert Montanes: Both of these players are very comfortable on the clay courts and will be very familiar with one another having met ten times on the Tour including earlier this season in Nice, a match that Albert Montanes won in two tight sets on his way to the title.
This should be a fun match with the contrasting styles of Montanes looking to grind down his opponent by attempting to get one more ball back into play and trying to extract mistakes, while Victor Hanescu will look to be aggressive behind serve and try to hit through his opponent.
The conditions in Kitzbuhel may just help Hanescu do that as it will give his serve a little more bite, but he will need to keep his cool and not offer too many unforced errors up for Montanes. The altitude here in this part of Austria may also help the ball move that much quicker that the speed of the Spaniard is not so much a factor this time around.
It is Hanescu who has been in the better form over the last month and I will back him to win this pick 'em contest.
Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: It has been a rough start for some of the seeded players in Kitzbuhel, but Juan Monaco may be able to take advantage of a local hope Andreas Haider-Maurer.
The Austrian is a Wild Card this week and won his First Round match against a compatriot who had qualified, but facing someone like Monaco is going to be very difficult if the latter is able to perform to the best of his ability.
It hasn't been a great season for Monaco, but he held match points in his Quarter Final against Mikhail Youzhny, the eventual winner in Gstaad, last week. As long as that hasn't had a negative effect on the Argentine, he should be able to come to Kitzbuhel with the game to take out Haider-Maurer.
Monaco can be a bit hit and miss behind his serve which is a problem when it comes to spreads like these, but he is capable of testing the rhythm Haider-Maurer has in his own game and extracting unforced errors from his opponent as he forces him to get closer and closer to the lines to win points. As long as Monaco doesn't commit some of the errors that have blighted his game at times this season, I would expect him to win this 63, 64.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The last time Fernando Verdasco was on court, he was fuming at some of the missed opportunities that saw him beaten at the Quarter Final stage in Hamburg. However, it has been a good month for him since reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and he has a strong chance of being seeded at the US Open next month.
I believe he will see this as a big week to pick up points, even though his game does remain effective on the hard courts where the Masters tournaments begin next week ahead of the final Grand Slam tournament of the season.
He should have a strong chance to progress to the Quarter Final here in Kitzbuhel as he takes on his compatriot Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, a player that won in the First Round, but who hasn't been in great form recently. Garcia-Lopez has had some big defeats against Nicolas Almagro and Juan Monaco in the last month and someone like Verdasco could certainly put him under a lot of pressure.
However, Verdasco has the tendency to drop serve at silly times in matches and he needs to remain focused if he is to win this match. The saving grace is that Garcia-Lopez doesn't possess an intimidating serve himself and I expect Verdasco to get the best of the breaks of serve to come through 64, 64.
Laura Robson + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: When players are as wildly inconsistent as these two, spreads that are a little short like this one could easily go either way.
However, there are a couple of reasons I think Laura Robson is capable of making a real match of this against Petra Kvitova, the former Wimbledon Champion who was beaten by Robson at the Australian Open back in January.
This is the first match Kvitova will have played on the Tour since Wimbledon, although Robson has only one more match under her belt following her First Round win yesterday. Both players are very comfortable on the hard courts as shown by Kvitova's two titles during this coming period last year and Robson reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open last September.
I also believe these are generally the kinds of matches that Robson really enjoys at the moment- she isn't at her best when there is the pressure of being the favourite, but playing the best players on the Tour as the underdog has been right up her street in her young career. Over the last twelve months she has pushed Maria Sharapova in a tough match and beaten the likes of Kim Clijsters, Na Li, Agnieszka Radwanska and Kvitova.
Robson may not win this match, but I expect she can push Kvitova and take a set off the inconsistent Czech player. As long as she remains mentally focused, Robson should be able to keep this close.
MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Laura Robson + 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-5, - 1.14 Units (20 Units Staked, - 5.70% Yield)
For a long time I had Alexandr Dolgopolov on my black list simply because he was far too erratic to really get a good feel of what you're going to get when he enters the court. While he has produced some winning picks over the last twelve months, there is something not quite right with him at the moment and the manner of his last two defeats has to be a real concern for his supporters.
The Second Round will continue at the events on Wednesday as the tournaments keep moving forward with the next Masters tournament fast approaching.
Victor Hanescu v Albert Montanes: Both of these players are very comfortable on the clay courts and will be very familiar with one another having met ten times on the Tour including earlier this season in Nice, a match that Albert Montanes won in two tight sets on his way to the title.
This should be a fun match with the contrasting styles of Montanes looking to grind down his opponent by attempting to get one more ball back into play and trying to extract mistakes, while Victor Hanescu will look to be aggressive behind serve and try to hit through his opponent.
The conditions in Kitzbuhel may just help Hanescu do that as it will give his serve a little more bite, but he will need to keep his cool and not offer too many unforced errors up for Montanes. The altitude here in this part of Austria may also help the ball move that much quicker that the speed of the Spaniard is not so much a factor this time around.
It is Hanescu who has been in the better form over the last month and I will back him to win this pick 'em contest.
Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: It has been a rough start for some of the seeded players in Kitzbuhel, but Juan Monaco may be able to take advantage of a local hope Andreas Haider-Maurer.
The Austrian is a Wild Card this week and won his First Round match against a compatriot who had qualified, but facing someone like Monaco is going to be very difficult if the latter is able to perform to the best of his ability.
It hasn't been a great season for Monaco, but he held match points in his Quarter Final against Mikhail Youzhny, the eventual winner in Gstaad, last week. As long as that hasn't had a negative effect on the Argentine, he should be able to come to Kitzbuhel with the game to take out Haider-Maurer.
Monaco can be a bit hit and miss behind his serve which is a problem when it comes to spreads like these, but he is capable of testing the rhythm Haider-Maurer has in his own game and extracting unforced errors from his opponent as he forces him to get closer and closer to the lines to win points. As long as Monaco doesn't commit some of the errors that have blighted his game at times this season, I would expect him to win this 63, 64.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The last time Fernando Verdasco was on court, he was fuming at some of the missed opportunities that saw him beaten at the Quarter Final stage in Hamburg. However, it has been a good month for him since reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and he has a strong chance of being seeded at the US Open next month.
I believe he will see this as a big week to pick up points, even though his game does remain effective on the hard courts where the Masters tournaments begin next week ahead of the final Grand Slam tournament of the season.
He should have a strong chance to progress to the Quarter Final here in Kitzbuhel as he takes on his compatriot Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, a player that won in the First Round, but who hasn't been in great form recently. Garcia-Lopez has had some big defeats against Nicolas Almagro and Juan Monaco in the last month and someone like Verdasco could certainly put him under a lot of pressure.
However, Verdasco has the tendency to drop serve at silly times in matches and he needs to remain focused if he is to win this match. The saving grace is that Garcia-Lopez doesn't possess an intimidating serve himself and I expect Verdasco to get the best of the breaks of serve to come through 64, 64.
Laura Robson + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: When players are as wildly inconsistent as these two, spreads that are a little short like this one could easily go either way.
However, there are a couple of reasons I think Laura Robson is capable of making a real match of this against Petra Kvitova, the former Wimbledon Champion who was beaten by Robson at the Australian Open back in January.
This is the first match Kvitova will have played on the Tour since Wimbledon, although Robson has only one more match under her belt following her First Round win yesterday. Both players are very comfortable on the hard courts as shown by Kvitova's two titles during this coming period last year and Robson reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open last September.
I also believe these are generally the kinds of matches that Robson really enjoys at the moment- she isn't at her best when there is the pressure of being the favourite, but playing the best players on the Tour as the underdog has been right up her street in her young career. Over the last twelve months she has pushed Maria Sharapova in a tough match and beaten the likes of Kim Clijsters, Na Li, Agnieszka Radwanska and Kvitova.
Robson may not win this match, but I expect she can push Kvitova and take a set off the inconsistent Czech player. As long as she remains mentally focused, Robson should be able to keep this close.
MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Laura Robson + 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-5, - 1.14 Units (20 Units Staked, - 5.70% Yield)
Tuesday, 30 July 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (July 30th)
It was almost a terrible opening day of the week for the picks, but fortunately the two from the tournaments in North America both came in to at least restrict the poor start.
You can still see the outright picks I have made from the tournaments in Kitzbuhel and Washington here.
Victor Hanescu - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: It has been a pretty solid month for the veteran Victor Hanescu and I believe he can go a little further here in Kitzbuhel as he takes on Aljaz Bedene in the First Round.
With a decent first serve, Hanescu should certainly find the conditions here in Austria to his liking as the altitude of the court will give his serve a little more pop. He should be able to find a way to put Aljaz Bedene under pressure with the serve, while he also has some heavy groundstrokes that can certainly push his younger opponent onto the back foot.
It has to be said that Bedene had a decent week last time out in Umag where he shocked Alexandr Dolgopolov, but a lot of that could be down to the latter being a little off his game. Bedene also has a decent serve and when he is on his game, he can be very tough to play.
However, he is also someone that can suddenly put together a number of poor games and I think a steady performance from Hanescu will help the Romanian win this one 76, 64.
Robin Haase - 3.5 games v Guillaume Rufin: After a long tough week on the Tour, it can be difficult to guess the state of someone's physical well-being, particularly when they have reached the Final of an event and are travelling to the next stop on the Tour.
That is the case for both Robin Haase and Guillaume Rufin who played in Finals on Sunday- Haase came up short in Gstaad, while Rufin won a Challenger on the clay courts in Germany.
It seems this match could come down to who has recovered from their exertions last week the best, although Haase will be very comfortable in the surroundings considering he has won the title here in both of the last two years since it returned to the calendar. Haase was in a positive state of mind on Sunday despite his defeat in the Final in Switzerland and if he serves and returns as well as he did last week, for the most part, he will be tough to beat here this year.
His opponent can certainly play some very effective tennis as Rufin has a good serve and likes being very aggressive, attacking the net and trying to take the ball on. However, his consistency can be an issue and that is why he is Ranked just inside the top 100 after moving back into this position thanks to his win last week.
The Frenchman is just 4-10 in the last three seasons on the main Tour when it comes to clay court events and I think Haase is going to find a way to crack him here. I believe solid serving will help Haase come through 64, 64 in this one as long as he isn't too shattered from some of the matches he played last week.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Somdev Devvarman: This has definitely been a down season for the talented, but wildly inconsistent, Alexandr Dolgopolov, but a return to Washington where he won the title last season should surely inspire him here.
He was beaten in his first match in Umag last week, but it seemed like Dolgopolov may not have been feeling well in that match against Aljaz Bedene so it will be interesting to see how has taken to the travel across the Atlantic. However, Dolgopolov has had a few days to get ready for the tournament here and faces a good opponent in the Second Round.
Somdev Devvarman is at a false position outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings as injuries have affected that Ranking over the last couple of years. Even so, the Indian player, who will be well used to the North American hard courts as he studied in the States for a number of years, has a game that will give Dolgopolov a chance to use all of his variations of shot.
As long as the Ukrainian isn't feeling the affects of the issue from last week, he should be a little too good for Devvarman in this one and come through 64, 63.
James Duckworth - 2.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: These two players haven't had a lot of experience at the main ATP level of tournaments and there are only four places between them in the World Rankings.
I believe the lower Ranked player, James Duckworth, has the edge in this First Round match as he has been winning the slightly higher quality of matches. The Australian has a decent serve that will be given a boost by the conditions in Washington and I think he can use that serve to help him build the foundation to success in this match.
Duckworth is against an opponent that can certainly make life tough as he can ensure he can get one more ball into play and force the errors from Duckworth's game. Sugita has a serve that is attackable, but he can be aggressive on court by getting to the net and putting away volleys so this certainly won't be a cakewalk for the Australian.
This has a real chance of going into a three set match, but I like Duckworth to find a way to come through 75, 46, 63.
Lukas Lacko v Marcos Baghdatis: I don't know whether fatherhood has changed Marcos Baghdatis into a less competitive figure on the court now that his priorities in life have changed, but this has been a terrible season for the former Australian Open Finalist.
In fairness, Baghdatis hasn't reached the heights of 2006 and I don't think he made the best of the talent he clearly possessed. He hasn't won a match, outside of one Davis Cup match, since February and is coming into this tournament off the back of seven straight matches.
This one looks like another tough match for the Cypriot against Lukas Lacko, even though the latter hasn't exactly pulled up too many trees on the Tour this season. Lacko is another player that has shown flashes of what he is capable of, but has struggled for consistency, although his confidence should be in a better place than Baghdatis with a few wins in recent weeks, even at Challenger level.
If this match is close, the number of losses in recent months will very likely have a mental affect on Baghdatis and this is a hard pattern to break. Lukas Lacko may become the latest player to take advantage of a player whose Ranking in slipping on a weekly basis.
Urszula Radwanska - 2.5 games v Marina Erakovic: The last couple of seasons has seen the younger Radwanska sister begin to make a more consistent move on the WTA Tour and I think she can take out the qualifier Marina Erakovic in the First Round.
Radwanska made it through to the Quarter Final in Stanford last week and was only stopped in her path by the eventual winner Dominika Cibulkova, while she has won 31 matches on the hard courts in the last eighteen months.
There have been a couple of disappointing early losses for Radwanska this season, but generally she is beginning to beat the players she is expected to and that should stand her in good stead to move into the upper echelons in the Women's game.
She is playing Marina Erakovic who has not had a winning record on the hard courts in the last few season, at main Tour level, but Erakovic is certainly capable of playing some inspired tennis and is going to be in good nick after winning three matches to get into the main draw. Erakovic will give Radwanska some problems, but she has lost to players that wouldn't be favoured to beat the Pole on the hard courts and I expect Radwanska to find a 63, 46, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
James Duckworth - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Lukas Lacko @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Urszula Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Unibet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)
You can still see the outright picks I have made from the tournaments in Kitzbuhel and Washington here.
Victor Hanescu - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: It has been a pretty solid month for the veteran Victor Hanescu and I believe he can go a little further here in Kitzbuhel as he takes on Aljaz Bedene in the First Round.
With a decent first serve, Hanescu should certainly find the conditions here in Austria to his liking as the altitude of the court will give his serve a little more pop. He should be able to find a way to put Aljaz Bedene under pressure with the serve, while he also has some heavy groundstrokes that can certainly push his younger opponent onto the back foot.
It has to be said that Bedene had a decent week last time out in Umag where he shocked Alexandr Dolgopolov, but a lot of that could be down to the latter being a little off his game. Bedene also has a decent serve and when he is on his game, he can be very tough to play.
However, he is also someone that can suddenly put together a number of poor games and I think a steady performance from Hanescu will help the Romanian win this one 76, 64.
Robin Haase - 3.5 games v Guillaume Rufin: After a long tough week on the Tour, it can be difficult to guess the state of someone's physical well-being, particularly when they have reached the Final of an event and are travelling to the next stop on the Tour.
That is the case for both Robin Haase and Guillaume Rufin who played in Finals on Sunday- Haase came up short in Gstaad, while Rufin won a Challenger on the clay courts in Germany.
It seems this match could come down to who has recovered from their exertions last week the best, although Haase will be very comfortable in the surroundings considering he has won the title here in both of the last two years since it returned to the calendar. Haase was in a positive state of mind on Sunday despite his defeat in the Final in Switzerland and if he serves and returns as well as he did last week, for the most part, he will be tough to beat here this year.
His opponent can certainly play some very effective tennis as Rufin has a good serve and likes being very aggressive, attacking the net and trying to take the ball on. However, his consistency can be an issue and that is why he is Ranked just inside the top 100 after moving back into this position thanks to his win last week.
The Frenchman is just 4-10 in the last three seasons on the main Tour when it comes to clay court events and I think Haase is going to find a way to crack him here. I believe solid serving will help Haase come through 64, 64 in this one as long as he isn't too shattered from some of the matches he played last week.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Somdev Devvarman: This has definitely been a down season for the talented, but wildly inconsistent, Alexandr Dolgopolov, but a return to Washington where he won the title last season should surely inspire him here.
He was beaten in his first match in Umag last week, but it seemed like Dolgopolov may not have been feeling well in that match against Aljaz Bedene so it will be interesting to see how has taken to the travel across the Atlantic. However, Dolgopolov has had a few days to get ready for the tournament here and faces a good opponent in the Second Round.
Somdev Devvarman is at a false position outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings as injuries have affected that Ranking over the last couple of years. Even so, the Indian player, who will be well used to the North American hard courts as he studied in the States for a number of years, has a game that will give Dolgopolov a chance to use all of his variations of shot.
As long as the Ukrainian isn't feeling the affects of the issue from last week, he should be a little too good for Devvarman in this one and come through 64, 63.
James Duckworth - 2.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: These two players haven't had a lot of experience at the main ATP level of tournaments and there are only four places between them in the World Rankings.
I believe the lower Ranked player, James Duckworth, has the edge in this First Round match as he has been winning the slightly higher quality of matches. The Australian has a decent serve that will be given a boost by the conditions in Washington and I think he can use that serve to help him build the foundation to success in this match.
Duckworth is against an opponent that can certainly make life tough as he can ensure he can get one more ball into play and force the errors from Duckworth's game. Sugita has a serve that is attackable, but he can be aggressive on court by getting to the net and putting away volleys so this certainly won't be a cakewalk for the Australian.
This has a real chance of going into a three set match, but I like Duckworth to find a way to come through 75, 46, 63.
Lukas Lacko v Marcos Baghdatis: I don't know whether fatherhood has changed Marcos Baghdatis into a less competitive figure on the court now that his priorities in life have changed, but this has been a terrible season for the former Australian Open Finalist.
In fairness, Baghdatis hasn't reached the heights of 2006 and I don't think he made the best of the talent he clearly possessed. He hasn't won a match, outside of one Davis Cup match, since February and is coming into this tournament off the back of seven straight matches.
This one looks like another tough match for the Cypriot against Lukas Lacko, even though the latter hasn't exactly pulled up too many trees on the Tour this season. Lacko is another player that has shown flashes of what he is capable of, but has struggled for consistency, although his confidence should be in a better place than Baghdatis with a few wins in recent weeks, even at Challenger level.
If this match is close, the number of losses in recent months will very likely have a mental affect on Baghdatis and this is a hard pattern to break. Lukas Lacko may become the latest player to take advantage of a player whose Ranking in slipping on a weekly basis.
Urszula Radwanska - 2.5 games v Marina Erakovic: The last couple of seasons has seen the younger Radwanska sister begin to make a more consistent move on the WTA Tour and I think she can take out the qualifier Marina Erakovic in the First Round.
Radwanska made it through to the Quarter Final in Stanford last week and was only stopped in her path by the eventual winner Dominika Cibulkova, while she has won 31 matches on the hard courts in the last eighteen months.
There have been a couple of disappointing early losses for Radwanska this season, but generally she is beginning to beat the players she is expected to and that should stand her in good stead to move into the upper echelons in the Women's game.
She is playing Marina Erakovic who has not had a winning record on the hard courts in the last few season, at main Tour level, but Erakovic is certainly capable of playing some inspired tennis and is going to be in good nick after winning three matches to get into the main draw. Erakovic will give Radwanska some problems, but she has lost to players that wouldn't be favoured to beat the Pole on the hard courts and I expect Radwanska to find a 63, 46, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
James Duckworth - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Lukas Lacko @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Urszula Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Unibet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)
Monday, 29 July 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (July 29th)
The ATP and WTA Tours have moved on another week and that means a brand new game will begin on Monday as the tournaments in Kitzbuhel, Washington and Carlsbad all will be kicking off. Usually Monday can be a quiet start to the week as the tournaments get going, but the ATP tournament in Washington has gathered a big field and there will be plenty of tennis being played throughout the day.
You can see the two outright picks I have made this week, as well as updated totals for the season, here.
The action will all begin in Austria in the final clay court event, and we will go through the day with action beginning in Washington and then Carlsbad.
Marcel Granollers - 5.5 games v Mate Pavic: I am pretty sure that Marcel Granollers will be kicking himself that he couldn't quite put Robin Haase away in the Quarter Final in Gstaad last week, but he should be able to make a good start in Kitzbuhel. He faces a young Wild Card opponent in Mate Pavic who has struggled to have an impact on the Tour so far and is now facing a player that is comfortable on the clay courts.
Pavic was beaten comfortably by Gael Monfils last week in Umag in front of his home supporters, and the 20 year old hasn't had a lot of experience at this level.
Young players can struggle to maintain the level required to keep up with the players that ply their trade on their main ATP Tour and that can prove to be the difference as they struggle to mentally keep up.
That can be the case for Pavic at the moment and you do see a lot of sets where he falls away and there is every chance that can happen again as he faces Granollers in the First Round. As long as the Spaniard can win the key points, as he can sometimes wander mentally, he should be able to take care of business with a routine 64, 62 win.
Andrey Kuznetsov - 3.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Another player receiving a Wild Card this week in Kitzbuhel is one of the home hopes in Dominic Thiem- the young Austrian player is a former winner of the prestigious Orange Bowl and also reached the Final at Roland Garros as a junior, although he is still cutting his teeth on the professional circuit.
Thiem has played a couple of Challenger events here and there this season, while his only main Tour experience has come at this event in the last couple of years. Last season, Thiem was beaten in three sets by Martin Klizan so he could give Andrey Kuznetsov some problems.
Kuznetsov is much more experienced than Thiem and he has been very strong at Challenger level and he has three titles at that level on the clay courts in the last twelve months. While the Russian hasn't been able to convert that to the ATP 250 level and beyond, he is still capable of beating players that are playing at the level below that.
The way that Kuznetsov can be a little erratic off the ground is a concern for him in any match, but I think he proves to be a little too strong in this one for the young Wild Card and comes away with a 64, 63 win.
Denis Istomin - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: The hard courts are the kind of surface that both Denis Istomin and Santiago Giraldo should enjoy with the way they approach tennis, but I think it is Istomin that will receive the greatest benefit.
The hard courts in North America can be some of the faster courts on the Tour as the paying public there like seeing the quick attacking tennis that those courts generally provide. Istomin is a little under-rated as far as I am concerned and he certainly has the serve to build a foundation for success against a lot of players on the Tour on these surfaces.
While Giraldo also has a decent serve, I think he is the more erratic player off the ground and that may be the difference in the match. The Colombian can be very generous and give away a string of points with unforced errors and that may offer Istomin the chance to come through with a 64, 75 victory.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Varvara Lepchenko: The tournament in Carlsbad has brought together some of the better players on the WTA Tour and so there are a few of these First Round matches that have put together a few of them.
Sam Stosur is a former US Open Champion and she has the serve to be very effective on the hard courts, although she was an early loser in Stanford last week when being surprised in the First Round. However, if the serve is working, Stosur can put a lot of scoreboard pressure on her opponent and that could be the case on Monday.
She is playing Varvara Lepchenko whose own serve can be a little erratic at times and I believe that will end up making the difference in this match. While Lepchenko will be able to get some easy service games under her belt, I am not convinced she has the returning game on the hard courts to keep Stosur at bay.
Last season was the best Lepchenko has had on the main WTA Tour, but she is only 4-8 on the hard courts this season and two of those wins came last week in Stanford. While Lepchenko pushed Agnieszka Radwanska last week, I think it is going to be more difficult to get back breaks of serve against Stosur if the Australian serves well and I like the higher Ranked player to come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Andrey Kuznetsov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.96 Unibet (2 Units)
You can see the two outright picks I have made this week, as well as updated totals for the season, here.
The action will all begin in Austria in the final clay court event, and we will go through the day with action beginning in Washington and then Carlsbad.
Marcel Granollers - 5.5 games v Mate Pavic: I am pretty sure that Marcel Granollers will be kicking himself that he couldn't quite put Robin Haase away in the Quarter Final in Gstaad last week, but he should be able to make a good start in Kitzbuhel. He faces a young Wild Card opponent in Mate Pavic who has struggled to have an impact on the Tour so far and is now facing a player that is comfortable on the clay courts.
Pavic was beaten comfortably by Gael Monfils last week in Umag in front of his home supporters, and the 20 year old hasn't had a lot of experience at this level.
Young players can struggle to maintain the level required to keep up with the players that ply their trade on their main ATP Tour and that can prove to be the difference as they struggle to mentally keep up.
That can be the case for Pavic at the moment and you do see a lot of sets where he falls away and there is every chance that can happen again as he faces Granollers in the First Round. As long as the Spaniard can win the key points, as he can sometimes wander mentally, he should be able to take care of business with a routine 64, 62 win.
Andrey Kuznetsov - 3.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Another player receiving a Wild Card this week in Kitzbuhel is one of the home hopes in Dominic Thiem- the young Austrian player is a former winner of the prestigious Orange Bowl and also reached the Final at Roland Garros as a junior, although he is still cutting his teeth on the professional circuit.
Thiem has played a couple of Challenger events here and there this season, while his only main Tour experience has come at this event in the last couple of years. Last season, Thiem was beaten in three sets by Martin Klizan so he could give Andrey Kuznetsov some problems.
Kuznetsov is much more experienced than Thiem and he has been very strong at Challenger level and he has three titles at that level on the clay courts in the last twelve months. While the Russian hasn't been able to convert that to the ATP 250 level and beyond, he is still capable of beating players that are playing at the level below that.
The way that Kuznetsov can be a little erratic off the ground is a concern for him in any match, but I think he proves to be a little too strong in this one for the young Wild Card and comes away with a 64, 63 win.
Denis Istomin - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: The hard courts are the kind of surface that both Denis Istomin and Santiago Giraldo should enjoy with the way they approach tennis, but I think it is Istomin that will receive the greatest benefit.
The hard courts in North America can be some of the faster courts on the Tour as the paying public there like seeing the quick attacking tennis that those courts generally provide. Istomin is a little under-rated as far as I am concerned and he certainly has the serve to build a foundation for success against a lot of players on the Tour on these surfaces.
While Giraldo also has a decent serve, I think he is the more erratic player off the ground and that may be the difference in the match. The Colombian can be very generous and give away a string of points with unforced errors and that may offer Istomin the chance to come through with a 64, 75 victory.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Varvara Lepchenko: The tournament in Carlsbad has brought together some of the better players on the WTA Tour and so there are a few of these First Round matches that have put together a few of them.
Sam Stosur is a former US Open Champion and she has the serve to be very effective on the hard courts, although she was an early loser in Stanford last week when being surprised in the First Round. However, if the serve is working, Stosur can put a lot of scoreboard pressure on her opponent and that could be the case on Monday.
She is playing Varvara Lepchenko whose own serve can be a little erratic at times and I believe that will end up making the difference in this match. While Lepchenko will be able to get some easy service games under her belt, I am not convinced she has the returning game on the hard courts to keep Stosur at bay.
Last season was the best Lepchenko has had on the main WTA Tour, but she is only 4-8 on the hard courts this season and two of those wins came last week in Stanford. While Lepchenko pushed Agnieszka Radwanska last week, I think it is going to be more difficult to get back breaks of serve against Stosur if the Australian serves well and I like the higher Ranked player to come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Andrey Kuznetsov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.96 Unibet (2 Units)
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