The Champions League and Europa League Quarter Final matches were completed this past week and my fear of Liverpool going on and winning the Champions League is becoming a reality.
They deservedly got through their tie against Manchester City and Liverpool look like they are peaking at the right time with the likes of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid failing to impress in the same way.
Roma may have something to say about that, but I am not convinced about the Italian team who are also battling for a top four spot in Serie A while the other teams left can all rest players in anticipation of Champions League matches.
The Europa League Semi Final line up also looks a decent one as we were treated to more memorable comebacks in that competition after the stunning performances Roma and Juventus had in the Champions League. This time it was Salzburg who were 2-5 down on aggregate against Lazio with 35 minutes left of the Second Leg only for the Austrian Champions to score four unanswered goals to go through.
This weekend we are back to domestic matters around Europe but we are hitting that period of the season when some of the focus can be lost by those teams who have nothing much left to play for.
That can produce some surprise results while others in 'must win' situations see their prices shortened by the layers who know it is human nature to want to behind teams with 'motivational edges'.
You have to be aware of that, but this weekend in the Premier League there are plenty of matches with lots of the line for the teams involved even if the title and top four places look to be set.
The relegation battle could also see some separation this weekend as games begin to run down and this is still an important weekend for the teams involved as we enter the final month of the season in the Premier League.
Southampton v Chelsea Pick: This is a preview of the second FA Cup Semi Final to be played next weekend but for Southampton there is no doubting the more important fixture.
Being relegated from the Premier League would be a big blow for Southampton but they are beginning to feel the pressure of that after losing their third Premier League game in a row last weekend.
For the third time in a row they have also conceded three times in those defeats although Southampton do get to return home this weekend.
They could be facing Chelsea at the right time with the top four chances likely gone and only the FA Cup left to really play for. However that may also mean Chelsea can head to St Mary's without too much pressure and that may see them show a little more composure when the chances do come their way.
With the likes of Eden Hazard and Willian supporting Alvaro Morata, Chelsea will believe they can create plenty of chances against a vulnerable Southampton defence. They were perhaps unfortunate not to score at least another against West Ham United last weekend and a similar level of performance going forward should be good enough for Chelsea.
Southampton have been tough to beat at home as shown by draws with Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur in their last 8 League games here. However a lack of goals has to be a worry for Mark Hughes as he tries to take his new club out of the bottom three and the problems at the other end have underlined those.
Chelsea have won on 3 of their last 4 visits to St Mary's and they visit without the pressure the home side will be feeling this weekend. I think that makes enough of a difference for Chelsea to pick up another victory on this ground and snap their poor recent run of away results.
However with the way Chelsea have been defending themselves, I imagine they will need to score at least twice to win here and backing them to win a match with two or more goals looks an appealing price compared to the odds on quotes for a Chelsea win.
Burnley v Leicester City Pick: This fixture might not have huge ramifications at the top and bottom of the Premier League but it could determine the team which is likely to earn the final Europa League spot next season.
Assuming Southampton don't surprise everyone and win the FA Cup, 7th place in the Premier League will come with a Europa League spot and Burnley have won 4 games in a row to take control of that position.
Avoiding defeat would keep Burnley in a position of strength, but a win would almost certainly mean a 7th place finish for Sean Dyche's men. That will keep the players focused against a Leicester City team who have won back to back away League games at West Brom and Brighton, although they had to ride their luck in the win over Brighton.
Last weekend Leicester City were beaten 1-2 at home by Newcastle United to dent their hopes of a top seven finish and this is a very tough Stadium to visit.
Burnley don't score a lot of goals which will give Leicester City a chance, but I think the home team are in strong form and playing with a little more confidence than The Foxes. That may be enough for the home team to earn the victory, although I will back them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw here.
Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: When you look at the remaining fixtures that Crystal Palace have to play you would think they have enough to earn the points to avoid the drop out of the Premier League.
The recent results may not suggest that is the case, but they have been performing far better than those results have indicated. Late goals being conceded has been a real issue for Crystal Palace who have lost their last 3 home games against teams in the top four with goals conceded in the 84th minute or later.
However Crystal Palace also led against Liverpool and Manchester United which should give the players the belief they can get the better of those teams around them. The 2-2 draw at Bournemouth last weekend is another game in which Crystal Palace led twice and conceded late to drop two points, but they are scoring goals and that may be enough to see off a Brighton team who have not scored a lot of away goals.
Brighton have been tough to beat with Chris Hughton organising them effectively and they will also be keen on securing another win which would almost certainly keep their status as a Premier League club. They have not scored a lot of goals on their travels though and Brighton were not at their best last weekend which should give Crystal Palace the edge in this one.
A rivalry game can be tough to read though and Brighton will feel they can create tension in the Stadium which may see the nerves move into the home players. However I do think Crystal Palace have shown enough in recent weeks to pick up the win in this one and I can see them scoring twice which may be too much for Brighton to earn a result.
Huddersfield Town v Watford Pick: There are five Premier League games left for Huddersfield Town this season and you have to think the next two at home are going to be vital if they are going to avoid the drop back into the Championship.
Back to back home games against teams in mid-table in the Premier League should be an opportunity for Huddersfield Town to pick up some key points and I do think they can begin with a result against Watford.
Goals are a big problem for Huddersfield Town which tempers some of the enthusiasm for them this week, but they should be confident of doing enough against a Watford side that have not been in the best focus in recent games.
There is no doubting that there is some quality in the Watford squad, but they look like a side that want to do the bare minimum to survive and then perhaps lose some of the focus. The away form doesn't make for good reading either with Watford failing to win any of their last 10 away games, losing 9 of those and only scoring twice in that time.
That should encourage Huddersfield Town and I do think The Terriers can win this one even though it will be tough. The performance in Brighton last weekend would have shown the players what they are capable of achieving and I think Huddersfield Town's motivation could also be enough to see off a poor travelling Watford team.
I don't think the away side will roll over, but they may not show a lot of fight if Huddersfield Town are able to take the lead and backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the pick. That will return the stake in the event of the draw, but I can see Huddersfield Town just edging out Watford and earning a vital three points towards safety.
Swansea City v Everton Pick: We have got to the stage of the season where teams are beginning to become a little desperate for points and Swansea City have to deal with the pressure of expectation as they bid to avoid the drop.
Fixtures like this one will have been circled by Swansea City to earn three points which will give them a huge boost of confidence to take into the remaining five games. That does put some pressure on the players to perform like the manager will want especially in front of the expectant fans too and that is one danger for Swansea City.
However they have been able to cope with pressurised spots since Carlos Carvalhal has taken over as manager of the club and Swansea City have been particularly good at home. They may have been thumped in the FA Cup Quarter Final by Tottenham Hotspur, but Swansea City have won 4 straight League games here and now face a team who don't travel the best.
Sam Allardyce has not managed to win over the Everton fans and they have looked a team short of some confidence despite 1 loss in 4 League games. The side have particularly faced some hardship away from home even though Everton did snap their 6 game losing run on their travels in the 1-2 win at Stoke City last time out.
That win came in a game where Stoke City were reduced to ten men in the first half hour and that obviously had a big impact on the fixture.
In recent seasons Everton have not had a lot of success at Swansea City and I do think the home team can edge them out. Backing Swansea City to keep their run of home wins going looks to be the right side and I will do that on the Asian Handicap which at least returns the stake in the event of a draw.
Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: Getting through to the Champions League Semi Final was a remarkable achievement for Liverpool and the fans will be hoping they can win the competition for the sixth time in their history.
The draw for the Semi Final will have been made on Friday, but Jurgen Klopp will try and ensure his players are not distracted and can focus on their Premier League campaign. There is still work to be done for Liverpool to confirm their spot in the top four of the Premier League and Klopp will want to earn a vital three points on Saturday to move a step closer to achieving that goal.
Being at Anfield means Liverpool will start this game as a very strong favourite which can't be denied. However Bournemouth will try and play their football and they have shown they can score goals even when visiting the top clubs after beating Chelsea 0-3 at Stamford Bridge.
Bournemouth try and get the ball down on the floor and that can be very pleasing on the eye but also potentially leaves them open for some heavy losses. It is no surprise that Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have all scored four times in wins over The Cherries this season and that has to be a concern for Eddie Howe.
He won't change his style though and Bournemouth may be able to at least get on the scoreboard too as they should be much better rested than Liverpool. Ultimately I still think Liverpool will have too much attacking class for Bournemouth who have conceded plenty of goals in recent weeks and I will back the home side to win a game featuring four or more goals at odds against.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: I am not entirely sure why the Tottenham Hotspur versus Manchester City Premier League fixture has been picked for Saturday at 7:45pm local time but that is the case for the third live Premier League game of the day.
There isn't as much on the line for the two teams as the television companies would have hoped for when they picked this for live coverage. Manchester City are going to win the Premier League while Tottenham Hotspur look secure for a top four finish, but that doesn't mean this shouldn't be a good game of football.
Both teams play with attacking football on their mind and I think it should be an entertaining game for those tuning in.
It's hard to imagine Manchester City losing four games in a row when you think of how well they have played throughout this season, but that is the potential for this side going into the weekend.
They haven't played badly in any of their defeats, but Manchester City look slightly off the pace as a long season begins to take its toll on the players. It has been hard for Manchester City to maintain the intensity they have used for much of the season and a team like Tottenham Hotspur are more than good enough to take advantage.
Unlike Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur have had a week to prepare for this fixture and they are at Wembley Stadium where they have been very strong this season. Tottenham Hotspur look to be playing with more confidence than Manchester City too and I think they can get at a vulnerable looking Manchester City defence and expose the issues at the back.
As I said before, it is hard to imagine Manchester City losing a fourth straight game in all competitions, but they are facing a tough opponent here.
Backing Tottenham Hotspur on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw. I think Spurs have enough to win this one though with the quality in their starting line up and with Manchester City looking slightly off the pace and I will be behind Tottenham Hotspur in this one.
Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: You have to say that Arsenal are showing some character in difficult moments in recent weeks but the majority of those have come in matches at the Emirates Stadium.
It is a different test for this team when they play away from home and Arsenal have a difficult game at Newcastle United on Sunday.
While their hosts will have been resting and preparing for this fixture, Arsenal had a tough away tie in Moscow on Thursday and I am expecting Arsene Wenger to make some changes to his starting line up. There is still some real quality in the Arsenal team which makes them dangerous for opponents, but I do wonder about the mental strength away from home in the Premier League considering they have won 3 of 15 away League games.
They may be visiting Newcastle United at a tough time with the home team recording 3 straight home wins in the League. They have kept clean sheets in each of those wins and will be confident of snapping their 10 game losing run to Arsenal.
Newcastle United have lost 4 in a row at home against them, but I do feel this is a good schedule spot for them and I will back The Magpies to take advantage of that.
The home team could be facing an Arsenal team who will be resting key players for more important games in the weeks ahead. The travel from Moscow and little preparation time is a difficult spot for The Gunners too and I will back Newcastle United to find a way to earn a result in this one.
Manchester United v West Brom Pick: There should be a positive atmosphere at Old Trafford after the fans saw Manchester United come from 2-0 down to beat Manchester City 2-3 in the derby at the Etihad Stadium last weekend.
The game this weekend is not as big as that one, but Manchester United will try and pick up where they left off last Saturday and that is getting on the front foot to take the game to West Brom.
The visitors come into this fixture having snapped their 9 game losing run with a 1-1 home draw last week against Swansea City, but they look certain to be relegated from the Premier League. Dave Moore is currently in charge as temporary manager of West Brom following Alan Pardew's departure, but this is a team low on confidence and one that is never too far away from capitulating.
It is going to be very difficult for West Brom to compete with Manchester United who have been in very strong form at Old Trafford, although the fans will be hoping for more consistent attacking from Manchester United. One aspect that can be improved is the number of goals being scored and Manchester United have only scored more than two goals in 1 of their last 10 Premier League games at Old Trafford.
Last weekend they did surpass that number against Manchester City and Manchester United are facing a West Brom team who have lost 4 away games in a row. The Baggies have conceded at least twice in 3 of those 4 losses and I do think their recent strong record at Old Trafford won't count for much here.
With the momentum from last weekend Manchester United should be looking to get on the front foot in this League game and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap here. It would not be a big surprise if West Brom just drop their heads if they fall behind and struggle to compete, and that could see Manchester United produce a comfortable win on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Chelsea Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Showing posts with label April 14-16. Show all posts
Showing posts with label April 14-16. Show all posts
Friday, 13 April 2018
Tuesday, 14 April 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (April 14-16)
It was another successful weekend for Louis Van Gaal and I had written a small piece about how he has turned things around at Old Trafford which can be read here.
European football takes centre stage this week as the First Leg of the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Finals are played over the next three days.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Pick: This looks like it is the tie of the Quarter Final round of the Champions League as the two Finalists from last season, and fierce Madrid rivals, will meet each other for the right to move into the Semi Final.
There has been plenty of positive form being displayed by both teams and I think it will be an incredibly tight contest in both games at the Vicente Calderon and Santiago Bernebeu which will be full of tension and emotion.
Real Madrid are the defending Champions and have recovered from the 2-1 loss at Barcelona to once again close on them at the top of the Spanish Primera Division. They have scored plenty of goals in those wins in the last couple of weeks and confidence has to be restored, but it is hard to ignore that they have lost 5 of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
Those losses have come to the likes of Valencia, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, the latter who have now won 4 of 6 games against Real Madrid this season including in all 3 games at the Vicente Calderon.
Atletico Madrid have also won 9 of 11 at home in all competitions and beat Barcelona here at this stage of the Champions League last season and that experience will make sure they don't feel inferior in any way in this tie.
With Atletico Madrid's impressive set of results against Real Madrid this season and the struggles that the latter have had in tough away games in recent weeks and you would have to say it is hard to find a reason for Real Madrid to be the favourites in the First Leg. The home team will be inspired by being written off and I can imagine Diego Simeone will use that to get another big performance from them.
As well as Real Madrid have played, the uncertain position of Carlo Ancelotti has to be having an effect and a small interest in Atletico Madrid continuing to hold the Indian Sign over them has to be worth backing. It is clear that Simeone has the system that gives Real Madrid a lot of problems and the home team shouldn't be the underdog in the First Leg where they know they have their best chance of getting into a position to win the Quarter Final.
Juventus v Monaco Pick: We all saw what Monaco are capable of if they are being underestimated in the last Round of the Champions League as they beat Arsenal 1-3 in the First Leg at the Emirates Stadium. You would think that would be fresh in the minds of the Juventus players and unlikely to see lightning strike twice, but Monaco have played well on their travels for much of the season and will cause some problems.
Aside from their defeat in Paris Saint-Germain, Monaco have shown their counter-attacking style to be very effective in their recent away games with 5 wins from 6 coming into this one. The fact that Monaco have scored three goals in 4 of their last 5 away games including that trip to the Emirates Stadium is impressive form.
However, I think the Champions League has taken added importance for Juventus this season and they were very impressive winners over Borussia Dortmund in the Last 16.
Paul Pogba is a big miss, but Juventus will have Carlos Tevez back to lead the line and he should be well rested for this game.
I do think Juventus are the favourites to progress, but I don't think it will be easy, especially at home. This Monaco side have shown they are capable of hurting teams that push forward which is what will be expected of Juventus and I won't be surprised if the French team have an away goal in their pocket when departing Turin.
However, I think Juventus have been very bloody-minded at home and found ways to win games so there might be some value in taking a very big price on there being at least three goals in this game. 5 of the last 7 Champions League games played at Juventus have seen at least three goals shared out and Monaco have scored 12 goals in their last 5 away games including three at Arsenal in the last Round.
I just don't think backing goals should be as high a price as it is and will back there being at least three on Tuesday.
Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona Pick: The absence of both Marco Verratti and Zlaten Ibrahimovic gives Paris Saint-Germain a real problem in the First Leg of this Quarter Final and has to be the main reason that Barcelona are ODDS ON to win.
That looks incredibly short to me considering how well Paris Saint-Germain have played at home in the Champions League and there is still enough quality in the home squad to give Barcelona all they can handle. Of course you can't dismiss how well Barcelona have been playing of late, but winning the First Leg on their travels looks a big test for them as all is not quite on point at the Nou Camp.
There are definitely goals in the Barcelona team though and I think they will score at least once here, while the side have scored twice in their last two visits to the Parc des Princes. In fact these two teams have produced fireworks in 3 of their 4 games over the last three seasons and I think we will see more of the same on Wednesday.
With Edinson Cavani leading the line for Paris Saint-Germain, they will give this Barcelona defence a real test especially as the latter have only produced 2 clean sheets in their last 8 games on their travels. On the other hand, I would expect Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar all to create trouble for Paris Saint-Germain missing David Luiz and the protection of Thiago Motta and backing goals in this one looks to be very reasonably priced.
We could see a repeat of the 2-2 draw they played out at this stage two seasons ago, but the 2-1 scoreline either way is very much in play too and I will back there being at least three goals at a slightly better price than the away win. I do believe Barcelona are the right favourites in the tie, but not totally convinced they will win here in the First Leg, although they will likely need to score twice to do that.
Porto v Bayern Munich Pick: If you look through the squads of both Porto and Bayern Munich, you can see there is a lot of attacking talent at the disposal of both managers. However, a lot of that talent is going to be missing on Wednesday with the likes of Tello, Jackson Martinez, Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben likely to be absent.
However, the depth in squad has to give Bayern Munich the edge in the match and the eventual tie and I do think the Bavarian giants will prove too strong over both legs. However, in saying that, I do think they look very short to win this game in Porto considering how well the home team have played in front of their own fans including in the Champions League in the last couple of years.
At the same time, Bayern Munich have not been a great away team to back in the Champions League with only 2 wins from their last 6 games. However, they have been very strong defensively in recent away games and have conceded just a single goal in 7 away games since the 4-1 battering at Wolfsburg.
I can see Pep Guardiola looking to ride those performances to success in this one and Bayern Munich will play the possession game to make sure they don't give Porto much of a chance to build up some momentum.
As I have said, Bayern Munich do look short, but I think they have the better strength in depth and are more likely to create the chances to win the game. Instead of the horrible odds on price, it might pay to back Bayern Munich to continue to show their defensive strengths and win this one without conceding a goal.
Club Brugge v Dnipro Pick: This has been a strong Europa League campaign for Club Brugge, but they have to be aware of the battling quality that Dnipro have shown to make their way into this Quarter Final.
Neither team will be expected to outlast some of the other teams left in the last eight, but the winner of the tie has to feel that anything can happen if they are in the Semi Final.
The edge in this First Leg has to be given to Club Brugge considering how well they have played at home over the course of the season and that they have won 5 of their last 7 games in the Europa League here. The come from behind win over Besiktas was particularly impressive for Club Brugge in the First Leg of that Last 16 tie and the confidence has to be there despite the loss at the weekend.
Compare that with Dnipro who have won just 1 of their last 8 away games in the Europa League, although they have managed to score goals in many of those games. Dnipro have lost half of those games on their travels and they might be quite satisfied with a narrow loss as long as they get on the scoreboard.
I do think it will be all to play for in the Ukraine in seven days time, but it will be Club Brugge who take a narrow advantage into that game.
Dynamo Kiev v Fiorentina Pick: There are a few injury and suspension issues in both squads ahead of this First Leg encounter in the Ukraine, but I still think this could be quite an entertaining game.
The situation seems to suit both teams as Fiorentina love to use the counter-attack with the pace they have in wide areas, which is most effective away from home, and Dynamo Kiev will be expecting to take a lead to Florence next week.
That should mean the home team look to get on the front foot in this one and Dynamo Kiev have to be respected as a team that has scored at least two goals in each of their home games in the Europa League this season. They have won all 5 home games, but Fiorentina have won 4 of their 5 away games in the competition and they have scored at least twice in 3 of those games.
Old school mentality says the First Leg of any knock out tie should be a tight and nervous affair, but I think both Dynamo Kiev and Fiorentina will believe they can achieve their main goal from this tie. I really do think both teams are going to score in this one, but I also don't anticipate either manager asking his team not to try and grab a lead for the Second Leg unless late in the game.
Dynamo Kiev should continue to push regardless and that might lead them to concede on the counter and I will back there being at least three goals at a big price.
Sevilla v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: This was already going to be a tough First Leg for Zenit St Petersburg to deal with regardless of who they had drawn last month because of the suspensions they have to take into the game. Unfortunately for Andre Villas-Boas, Zenit St Petersburg arguably got the toughest draw in the First Leg with a trip to Spain to take on the defending Champions Sevilla.
It is also a confident Sevilla they have to deal with and one that came back from a 0-2 deficit to earn a draw with Barcelona last weekend. There is a lot of experience in the Sevilla squad having won this tournament last season and I have a feeling they can get themselves into a very strong position for the Second Leg in Russia next week.
Goals haven't been a problem for Sevilla and it will be difficult for Zenit St Petersburg to defend deep and hope for the best. This is a team that has lost 3 of their last 4 away European games and were comfortably defeated in Bayer Leverkusen and Monaco during the Group Stage of the Champions League. Neither of those two teams are head and shoulders above Sevilla and the home team in this First Leg might end up with a similar advantage.
I don't think it is ever wise to rule out the Russian domestic League leaders with ease, but everything is pointing towards a Sevilla win in this one and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to prove too good.
Wolfsburg v Napoli Pick: There is plenty of quality in the Napoli team that will make them believe that they can beat Wolfsburg and progress to the Semi Final, but the recent form has to be a worry. Roy Keane once said it best about teams that try to 'turn off and turn on' their form when they need to and how difficult that is for the very best and I do wonder if Napoli can get more out of themselves than they have been producing.
The 3-0 win over Fiorentina has come at a vital time for Napoli, but they still have to exorcise some of their demons away from home where they have failed to win any of 5 games and only scored a single goal.
A single goal might not be enough to avoid defeat in Wolfsburg where the home team have won 9 in a row in all competitions and blew Inter Milan away, despite going a goal down, in the last Round. Wolfsburg are one of the form teams in Europe and they can focus completely on this tie too with a very strong position in the Bundesliga where a Champions League place is almost surely assured.
A chance to win a European trophy for the first time in Wolfsburg's history is another motivational tool and Napoli may struggle to contain them here. The best that Rafa Benitez may hope for is an away goal and perhaps a score draw, while the experiences he has had in European knock out ties is hard to dismiss.
However, Wolfsburg come at teams from all angles and I do think they can have an advantage to take to Naples and the cauldron like atmosphere the home fans can generate there.
MY PICKS: Atletico Madrid @ 2.88 Coral (1 Unit)
Juventus-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win to Nil @ 3.00 Tote Sport (1 Unit)
Club Brugge @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev-Fiorentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Coral (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolfsburg @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
April Update: 8-6, + 3.31 Units (27 Units Staked, + 12.26% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
European football takes centre stage this week as the First Leg of the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Finals are played over the next three days.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Pick: This looks like it is the tie of the Quarter Final round of the Champions League as the two Finalists from last season, and fierce Madrid rivals, will meet each other for the right to move into the Semi Final.
There has been plenty of positive form being displayed by both teams and I think it will be an incredibly tight contest in both games at the Vicente Calderon and Santiago Bernebeu which will be full of tension and emotion.
Real Madrid are the defending Champions and have recovered from the 2-1 loss at Barcelona to once again close on them at the top of the Spanish Primera Division. They have scored plenty of goals in those wins in the last couple of weeks and confidence has to be restored, but it is hard to ignore that they have lost 5 of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
Those losses have come to the likes of Valencia, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, the latter who have now won 4 of 6 games against Real Madrid this season including in all 3 games at the Vicente Calderon.
Atletico Madrid have also won 9 of 11 at home in all competitions and beat Barcelona here at this stage of the Champions League last season and that experience will make sure they don't feel inferior in any way in this tie.
With Atletico Madrid's impressive set of results against Real Madrid this season and the struggles that the latter have had in tough away games in recent weeks and you would have to say it is hard to find a reason for Real Madrid to be the favourites in the First Leg. The home team will be inspired by being written off and I can imagine Diego Simeone will use that to get another big performance from them.
As well as Real Madrid have played, the uncertain position of Carlo Ancelotti has to be having an effect and a small interest in Atletico Madrid continuing to hold the Indian Sign over them has to be worth backing. It is clear that Simeone has the system that gives Real Madrid a lot of problems and the home team shouldn't be the underdog in the First Leg where they know they have their best chance of getting into a position to win the Quarter Final.
Juventus v Monaco Pick: We all saw what Monaco are capable of if they are being underestimated in the last Round of the Champions League as they beat Arsenal 1-3 in the First Leg at the Emirates Stadium. You would think that would be fresh in the minds of the Juventus players and unlikely to see lightning strike twice, but Monaco have played well on their travels for much of the season and will cause some problems.
Aside from their defeat in Paris Saint-Germain, Monaco have shown their counter-attacking style to be very effective in their recent away games with 5 wins from 6 coming into this one. The fact that Monaco have scored three goals in 4 of their last 5 away games including that trip to the Emirates Stadium is impressive form.
However, I think the Champions League has taken added importance for Juventus this season and they were very impressive winners over Borussia Dortmund in the Last 16.
Paul Pogba is a big miss, but Juventus will have Carlos Tevez back to lead the line and he should be well rested for this game.
I do think Juventus are the favourites to progress, but I don't think it will be easy, especially at home. This Monaco side have shown they are capable of hurting teams that push forward which is what will be expected of Juventus and I won't be surprised if the French team have an away goal in their pocket when departing Turin.
However, I think Juventus have been very bloody-minded at home and found ways to win games so there might be some value in taking a very big price on there being at least three goals in this game. 5 of the last 7 Champions League games played at Juventus have seen at least three goals shared out and Monaco have scored 12 goals in their last 5 away games including three at Arsenal in the last Round.
I just don't think backing goals should be as high a price as it is and will back there being at least three on Tuesday.
Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona Pick: The absence of both Marco Verratti and Zlaten Ibrahimovic gives Paris Saint-Germain a real problem in the First Leg of this Quarter Final and has to be the main reason that Barcelona are ODDS ON to win.
That looks incredibly short to me considering how well Paris Saint-Germain have played at home in the Champions League and there is still enough quality in the home squad to give Barcelona all they can handle. Of course you can't dismiss how well Barcelona have been playing of late, but winning the First Leg on their travels looks a big test for them as all is not quite on point at the Nou Camp.
There are definitely goals in the Barcelona team though and I think they will score at least once here, while the side have scored twice in their last two visits to the Parc des Princes. In fact these two teams have produced fireworks in 3 of their 4 games over the last three seasons and I think we will see more of the same on Wednesday.
With Edinson Cavani leading the line for Paris Saint-Germain, they will give this Barcelona defence a real test especially as the latter have only produced 2 clean sheets in their last 8 games on their travels. On the other hand, I would expect Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar all to create trouble for Paris Saint-Germain missing David Luiz and the protection of Thiago Motta and backing goals in this one looks to be very reasonably priced.
We could see a repeat of the 2-2 draw they played out at this stage two seasons ago, but the 2-1 scoreline either way is very much in play too and I will back there being at least three goals at a slightly better price than the away win. I do believe Barcelona are the right favourites in the tie, but not totally convinced they will win here in the First Leg, although they will likely need to score twice to do that.
Porto v Bayern Munich Pick: If you look through the squads of both Porto and Bayern Munich, you can see there is a lot of attacking talent at the disposal of both managers. However, a lot of that talent is going to be missing on Wednesday with the likes of Tello, Jackson Martinez, Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben likely to be absent.
However, the depth in squad has to give Bayern Munich the edge in the match and the eventual tie and I do think the Bavarian giants will prove too strong over both legs. However, in saying that, I do think they look very short to win this game in Porto considering how well the home team have played in front of their own fans including in the Champions League in the last couple of years.
At the same time, Bayern Munich have not been a great away team to back in the Champions League with only 2 wins from their last 6 games. However, they have been very strong defensively in recent away games and have conceded just a single goal in 7 away games since the 4-1 battering at Wolfsburg.
I can see Pep Guardiola looking to ride those performances to success in this one and Bayern Munich will play the possession game to make sure they don't give Porto much of a chance to build up some momentum.
As I have said, Bayern Munich do look short, but I think they have the better strength in depth and are more likely to create the chances to win the game. Instead of the horrible odds on price, it might pay to back Bayern Munich to continue to show their defensive strengths and win this one without conceding a goal.
Club Brugge v Dnipro Pick: This has been a strong Europa League campaign for Club Brugge, but they have to be aware of the battling quality that Dnipro have shown to make their way into this Quarter Final.
Neither team will be expected to outlast some of the other teams left in the last eight, but the winner of the tie has to feel that anything can happen if they are in the Semi Final.
The edge in this First Leg has to be given to Club Brugge considering how well they have played at home over the course of the season and that they have won 5 of their last 7 games in the Europa League here. The come from behind win over Besiktas was particularly impressive for Club Brugge in the First Leg of that Last 16 tie and the confidence has to be there despite the loss at the weekend.
Compare that with Dnipro who have won just 1 of their last 8 away games in the Europa League, although they have managed to score goals in many of those games. Dnipro have lost half of those games on their travels and they might be quite satisfied with a narrow loss as long as they get on the scoreboard.
I do think it will be all to play for in the Ukraine in seven days time, but it will be Club Brugge who take a narrow advantage into that game.
Dynamo Kiev v Fiorentina Pick: There are a few injury and suspension issues in both squads ahead of this First Leg encounter in the Ukraine, but I still think this could be quite an entertaining game.
The situation seems to suit both teams as Fiorentina love to use the counter-attack with the pace they have in wide areas, which is most effective away from home, and Dynamo Kiev will be expecting to take a lead to Florence next week.
That should mean the home team look to get on the front foot in this one and Dynamo Kiev have to be respected as a team that has scored at least two goals in each of their home games in the Europa League this season. They have won all 5 home games, but Fiorentina have won 4 of their 5 away games in the competition and they have scored at least twice in 3 of those games.
Old school mentality says the First Leg of any knock out tie should be a tight and nervous affair, but I think both Dynamo Kiev and Fiorentina will believe they can achieve their main goal from this tie. I really do think both teams are going to score in this one, but I also don't anticipate either manager asking his team not to try and grab a lead for the Second Leg unless late in the game.
Dynamo Kiev should continue to push regardless and that might lead them to concede on the counter and I will back there being at least three goals at a big price.
Sevilla v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: This was already going to be a tough First Leg for Zenit St Petersburg to deal with regardless of who they had drawn last month because of the suspensions they have to take into the game. Unfortunately for Andre Villas-Boas, Zenit St Petersburg arguably got the toughest draw in the First Leg with a trip to Spain to take on the defending Champions Sevilla.
It is also a confident Sevilla they have to deal with and one that came back from a 0-2 deficit to earn a draw with Barcelona last weekend. There is a lot of experience in the Sevilla squad having won this tournament last season and I have a feeling they can get themselves into a very strong position for the Second Leg in Russia next week.
Goals haven't been a problem for Sevilla and it will be difficult for Zenit St Petersburg to defend deep and hope for the best. This is a team that has lost 3 of their last 4 away European games and were comfortably defeated in Bayer Leverkusen and Monaco during the Group Stage of the Champions League. Neither of those two teams are head and shoulders above Sevilla and the home team in this First Leg might end up with a similar advantage.
I don't think it is ever wise to rule out the Russian domestic League leaders with ease, but everything is pointing towards a Sevilla win in this one and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to prove too good.
Wolfsburg v Napoli Pick: There is plenty of quality in the Napoli team that will make them believe that they can beat Wolfsburg and progress to the Semi Final, but the recent form has to be a worry. Roy Keane once said it best about teams that try to 'turn off and turn on' their form when they need to and how difficult that is for the very best and I do wonder if Napoli can get more out of themselves than they have been producing.
The 3-0 win over Fiorentina has come at a vital time for Napoli, but they still have to exorcise some of their demons away from home where they have failed to win any of 5 games and only scored a single goal.
A single goal might not be enough to avoid defeat in Wolfsburg where the home team have won 9 in a row in all competitions and blew Inter Milan away, despite going a goal down, in the last Round. Wolfsburg are one of the form teams in Europe and they can focus completely on this tie too with a very strong position in the Bundesliga where a Champions League place is almost surely assured.
A chance to win a European trophy for the first time in Wolfsburg's history is another motivational tool and Napoli may struggle to contain them here. The best that Rafa Benitez may hope for is an away goal and perhaps a score draw, while the experiences he has had in European knock out ties is hard to dismiss.
However, Wolfsburg come at teams from all angles and I do think they can have an advantage to take to Naples and the cauldron like atmosphere the home fans can generate there.
MY PICKS: Atletico Madrid @ 2.88 Coral (1 Unit)
Juventus-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win to Nil @ 3.00 Tote Sport (1 Unit)
Club Brugge @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev-Fiorentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Coral (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolfsburg @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
April Update: 8-6, + 3.31 Units (27 Units Staked, + 12.26% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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