Tennis Picks 2026 (Tuesday 24th February)

The Tennis Tour continues this week with the ATP 500 events being the big tournaments to be played, while the WTA Tour turns its attentions to the upcoming Indian Wells Masters.

The majority of the top names will be finally earning some rest after the controversial swing through the Middle East, and the same will apply in the main for the top names on the ATP Tour. None of these events are mandatory for the latter, while that is not the case for those on the WTA Tour and that is something that will need to be addressed.

On Tuesday, any selections from the ATP Acapulco event will be added to this thread and the season total will also be updated.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Juncheng Shang: This is the second time during the Middle East swing that these two players are facing off and Daniil Medvedev is expected to frank his win over Juncheng Shang.

The Australian Open run ended very disappointingly and Medvedev has struggled for some consistency since then.

He has now lost three of the last four matches played, but the exception is the win over Juncheng Shang in Doha and Daniil Medvedev is still playing at a level that should be too good for the World Number 262.

Injuries have contributed to that World Ranking mark for a 21 year old who was as high as World Number 47 less than eighteen months ago. Juncheng Shang has a 3-3 record on the hard courts at the start of the 2026 season, but the losses have all been pretty comfortable and that means the numbers being produced are not very impressive.

Juncheng Shang does have a serve that can cause problems, but he has only been breaking in 14% of return games played, which has put pressure to serve well. He was not able to impose that shot on Daniil Medvedev in Doha with the second serve in particular being a shot that was attacked by the higher Ranked player and that saw Shang broken three times.

The Daniil Medvedev serve is not as potent a weapon as you would expect for a former Grand Slam Champion, but the World Number 11 has long been someone who can rattle opponents with his return of serve. This year Medvedev has been breaking in 31% of return games played and he will have learned plenty about the opponent when beating him pretty convincingly in Doha.

It may not be quite as wide as that win last week, but Daniil Medvedev can be backed to cover the same line that was presented to him in the other tournament taking place on this Middle East swing.

Jakub Mensik-Hubert Hurkacz over 0.5 Tie-Breakers: When they met at the Australian Open in January 2024, Jakub Mensik was an 18 year old trying to make an impact on the Tour, while Hubert Hurkacz was a top ten Ranked player.

The match lasted five sets before Hurkacz was able to pull through and the big Pole earned another win over Jakub Mensik last year on the clay courts of Rome.

That time it was Jakub Mensik who was Ranked higher than Hubert Hurkacz, but a bigger gap has developed between the players ahead of this latest match up in Dubai.

Only ten places separated them in May 2025, but now Mensik is on the edge of cracking the top ten of the World Rankings, while Hubert Hurkacz has slipped out of the top 50 as injuries and a loss of form have become contributing factors.

Hubert Hurkacz won four matches at the United Cup in the build up to the Australian Open, but has lost every match played since winning a First Round contest in Melbourne. The serve continues to be a huge weapon, but Hurkacz has been struggling on the return and that has led to a number of disappointing results at tournaments that have been played.

Jakub Mensik had been playing well in Melbourne, but was forced to give Novak Djokovic a walkover as he was not fit enough to take his place on the court. That has been one of the disappointing aspects of his career so far with injuries needing to be overcome, but Mensik has shown plenty of mental resolve and he bounced back to reach the Semi Final in Doha last week.

He has already won a title on the hard courts and Jakub Mensik will be confident enough in his serve, even if the numbers are a little below expectations- he has won 65% of service points played, but that has only led to 81% of service holds as he has perhaps struggled to win the big points.

However, the likelihood is that Mensik is not going to be facing a lot of Break Points in this one as long as he serves as he has been, while his own return is not expected to have the same impact against a server as effective as his opponent.

The younger player should eventually prevail, but it could be similar to the Doha Semi Final where you have to believe the servers can do just enough to force at least one Tie-Breaker.

In the two previous matches which have had eight sets played, three have needed Tie-Breakers and Jakub Mensik was not broken in the match on a clay court last year. In that one he took one Break Point, but a faster surface should suit both when it comes to the serving power and it would be a surprise if at least one of the sets is not decided by a first to seven point situation.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jakub Mensik-Hubert Hurkacz Over 0.5 Tie-Breakers @ 1.53 Bet365 (1 Unit)