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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Saturday, 26 October 2024

College Football Week 9 Picks 2024 (Saturday 26th October)

Has the expanded College Football Playoff contributed to some of the surprising results we have seen in the regular season?

It is a legitimate question now teams are not expected to go through the regular season unbeaten to earn a spot in the final four. These days it is going to be a twelve team Playoff and that means teams can take on tougher games and accept that even a single defeat will not spell the end of their chances of being crowed National Champions.

Two losses may be a different deal though and so there are some big games with real Playoff implications coming up.

There may not be a host of unbeaten teams, but there are a few around who will be looking to remain on track in Week 9 as we conclude the October schedule before the run to the Championship Games begin to take shape.


Washington Huskies @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: There is an excitement building around the Indiana Hoosiers (7-0) who are one of three Big Ten teams that are still unbeaten as we approach the end of October. The run in and around the Bye Week sees Indiana face some of the top names in the Conference, although the likes of Michigan State and Michigan have not really played to any level that should worry an unbeaten team in the form the Hoosiers have displayed.

Even new Big Ten members Washington Huskies (4-3) are not looking like a team that could push for the Playoff places later in the year and the 2-2 record within the Conference leaves them under pressure.

Two weeks ago, the Huskies were crushed by the Iowa Hawkeyes, but they have had a Bye Week to try and get things worked out. The plan would have been about stopping Kurtis Rourke who has had almost 2000 passing yards with 15 Touchdowns and 3 Interceptions, but the Indiana Quarter Back has been ruled out with a thumb injury and may not be ready to return until the big game against the Ohio State Buckeyes next month.

Tayven Jackson came in as the backup Quarter Back against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and he had almost 100 passing yards while showing an efficiency completing his passes. Last year was a little tough for Jackson having started five games for the Hoosiers and finishing with a 2-3 record, but the team are confident that he can come in and do a job.

He had 2 Touchdown passes in the win over the Cornhuskers and Tayven Jackson may just be needed to remind the Washington Huskies that he can have an efficient day as a passer. If he can do that, Indiana can rely on their strong Offensive Line and rushing attack to keep the team moving forward and making sure the Quarter Back is ahead of the chains.

Stopping the run has not been easy for the Huskies as the competition has ramped up and even the Bye Week might not have been enough time to slow down a team that has played to the level that Indiana have. As long as Tayven Jackson can play up to the standard of Week 8, the Hoosiers have every chance to moving the ball and into a position to cover this mark, while also maintaining an unbeaten record.

This is not going to be an easy game for the Indiana Hoosiers, especially as the Huskies run out a strong passing attack of their own.

Will Rogers has done what he has needed to do at Quarter Back and he has largely been able to look after the ball when he has dropped back to make his passes down the field. The passing numbers are there and this Hoosiers Secondary have allowed teams to have success throwing against them, even if the Defensive Backs have then stepped up to the plate to pick up a turnover or two.

However, the bigger challenge for Rogers and the Huskies may be trying to keep things going from behind the chains and they may struggle to establish the run in this game. Making Washington look a little one-dimensional would be a huge boost for Indiana and it would also allow them to generate a pass rush that could force mistakes from a veteran Quarter Back.

Turnovers are likely going to play a big part in the final outcome and you have to believe this Indiana Defensive unit will want to show up and make sure they are putting their team in a position to win without their starting Quarter Back. The Hoosiers will need a bit more from Tayven Jackson just to keep the Huskies honest Defensively, but a week of preparation should help and Indiana can keep the unbeaten run moving through another game.


Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Several years of underachievement means the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-2) have work to do if they are going to get back amongst the elite of the Big Ten Conference. One more win this season would mean Nebraska have put together their most wins in a single season since 2016, which underlines the slip around this school compared with the consistent winning seasons they were putting together.

Head Coach Matt Rhule oversaw five wins in his first season as Head Coach of the Cornhuskers and he has matched that in 2024, while his previous successes leading the Baylor Bears makes it feel he is well suited to College Football following a tough time as Head Coach of the Carolina Panthers.

There are plenty of positives from this season, but the Cornhuskers were just given a really harsh reminder about what the Big Ten is about when getting crushed by the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 8. It drops the Cornhuskers to 2-2 within the Conference and they now have to travel to face an angry Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) who are coming out of their Bye Week.

A single point loss to the Oregon Ducks ended the unbeaten start to the season two weeks ago and it has meant the Buckeyes have been stewing on the defeat. The Bye Week is a chance to just remind the players of what can still be achieved this season, and the Buckeyes will want to put a solid win on the board before a huge game at the Penn State Nittany Lions to take place in Week 10.

The Buckeyes will have spent the Bye Week making sure they are going to bounce back in Week 9 and they do have a balance Offensively that could make it very difficult for Nebraska to do the same after being crushed at Indiana.

Establishing the run against the Cornhuskers Defensive Line is always going to be a test, but this Buckeyes Offensive Line have been strong up front and they have continued to open up some big running lanes even as the Big Ten play has gotten underway. Ohio State will be pounding the rock, which can open the pass game, and Will Howard is a veteran College Football Quarter Back who has 14 Touchdown passes to go with 3 Interceptions.

It helps that Will Howard is standing behind an Offensive Line that has been just as convincing in pass protection as they have in run blocking. Being back at home should also help after the narrow loss on the road at the Oregon Ducks, and Nebraska's Defensive unit may have a few issues when trying to bounce back from the defeat to the Hoosiers.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be important when the Nebraska Cornhuskers have the ball and it looks like a much more challenging task for the underdog to establish the run. And unlike the Ohio State Offensive Line, the Nebraska unit has not been as strong when it comes to protecting the Quarter Back and that is going to see Dylan Raiola under some real pressure.

That will only be furthered by a home crowd that is going to want to remind Dylan Raiola that he made a poor decision in opting out of his commitment to the Buckeyes and to eventually end up in Nebraska.

Early form displayed by Dylan Raiola was very encouraging, but the Big Ten Conference opponents have proven to be tougher to handle for the youngster. Despite their loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes Defensive unit may still be the best in the Conference and they can eventually show that off by dominating the second half and pulling clear of this spread set.


Texas Longhorns @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: There is a fear that the SEC might be 'eating itself' when it comes to the number of teams they can send to the College Football Playoff. Only two teams remain unbeaten within Conference play, but none of the teams involved have a perfect record overall.

The last of those records to slip was the one held by the Texas Longhorns (6-1) when they were beaten by the Georgia Bulldogs and the Ranking has dropped down to Number 5.

Time is still on their side to turn things around, but the Longhorns have to make sure they fully respect a Vanderbilt Commodores (5-2) team that have a 2-1 record in the SEC and who have already upset the Alabama Crimson Tide. That victory is perhaps not looking as strong as it did when Vanderbilt beat the Crimson Tide the week after the latter had knocked off the Georgia Bulldogs, but it is still a strong win for the Commodores and the fans will bring an intense atmosphere.

Vanderbilt have been set as the underdog four times this season and they have covered in each of those games.

There is no doubting the ability of the Texas Longhorns to bounce back, but this is a big spread and Diego Pavia and the Commodores Offensive unit will use the home crowd energy to push them forward. A narrower than expected win over the Ball State Cardinals will not be a big concern with Vanderbilt likely keeping some key plays under their hat ahead of a big game.

Putting together a strong Offensive game-plan against this Longhorns Defensive unit will be challenging, but Vanderbilt have to believe Texas could be a little short emotionally. The Longhorns will be going into their Bye Week in a bid to reset after this game and so there is very chance that this Defense is not as focused as they may have been with an unbeaten record to protect.

Texas should be able to move the chains with some confidence when they have the ball and they are likely going to lean on the Offensive Line to ensure a strong running game is produced. This will make things easier for the Quarter Back, whether that is Quinn Ewers or Archie Manning, although it should be noted that this Vanderbilt Secondary have played pretty well over their last few games.

There is a chance that Vanderbilt can generate a solid pass rush, which will help the Secondary make big plays, and the Commodores may be able to create a turnover or two which can keep this game close.

Vanderbilt have plenty of experience to help them in tough spots and they have shown they can be a very competitive underdog.

The Longhorns had been dominant before the upset loss to the Georgia Bulldogs and some may feel that this team is not fully focused with a Bye Week coming up. The fact that Alabama lost here will just serve as a reminder for Texas about what can happen against any team, but this is a big spread and it may be too wide for a team that has to still believe they can reach the SEC Championship Game and then have a big impact in the College Football Playoffs.


Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: This may have been a game that had been circled by fans in the ACC as being one that could determine at least one of the Championship Game representatives.

Things have simply not gone that way for the Florida State Seminoles (1-6) whose unbeaten season in 2023 has been firmly left in the rearview mirror.

Too much reliance on the transfer portal has been criticised this season, even if it was key to the successes of last season, and the Seminoles have very little to play for.

One motivation will be to play spoiler for the Miami Hurricanes (7-0) who come through a couple of really tight games to remain unbeaten and who look on course to face the Clemson Tigers for the ACC Championship. Looking too far ahead would be a mistake for the Hurricanes considering how close some of their recent wins have been and the fans will try and keep Miami focused on the here and now.

Offensively the Hurricanes should be able to do what they want thanks to the Offensive Line opening up some big running lanes. They will be favourites to hit the Seminoles hard on the ground and that should open things up for Cam Ward at Quarter Back, who continues to play like one of the top players in the position.

Scoring points has not been the problem, but the Miami Hurricanes know the Defensive unit have to be significantly improved if they are going to reach the College Football Playoff and then have a deep run. This is a week in which they are facing a Florida State Offensive unit that has just lacked consistency Offensively and so you do have to wonder if the Seminoles are going to be able to score enough points to keep up with their rivals.

The Seminoles Offensive Line have not opened up too many big running lanes and that has allowed teams to bring a solid pass rush, which has just underlined other issues at the Line of Scrimmage.

Miami are not easy to trust with a line like this one after some of their recent wins, but the Hurricanes have been much better than Florida State and they can underline that gap with a much more convincing win in Week 9.

MY PICKS: Indiana Hoosiers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Vanderbilt Commodores + 17.5 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

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