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College Football Week 13 Picks 2024 (Saturday 23rd November)

There may be an expanded College Football Playoff format in place at the end of this season, but the tougher schedules that teams have chose...

Friday, 11 October 2024

College Football Week 7 Picks 2024 (Saturday 12th October)

There continues to be a lot of uncertainty about the future of College Football with a number of plans being discussed behind the scenes that could completely change the landscape.

None of that matters to teams and players performing in 2024 and the sole focus has to be in trying to win Conference Championships and/or earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff and having a chance to win a National Championship.

However, avoiding all distractions is never easy and a number of the higher Ranked teams were beaten in upsets in Week 6 to just change the outlook of this season.

It might not have been the 'biggest upset of all time' in terms of the raw numbers, but the Alabama Crimson Tide going down to the Vanderbilt Commodores for the first time in forty years shook up College Football. The fact that defeat was just seven days after beating the Georgia Bulldogs just made the upset that much bigger in the eyes of the fans, although Alabama were not the only ones to be downed last week.

Two other highly Ranked SEC teams were also beaten when Tennessee and Missouri went down and all three of those teams have dropped several places in the top 25 Rankings ahead of Week 7.

Without playing, the Texas Longhorns moved back to Number 1 and they are followed by top unbeaten teams in Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State, although those three Big Ten teams will begin to jockey for position in Week 7 when the Buckeyes travel to Oregon to take on the Ducks.

The Miami Hurricanes are another highly Ranked unbeaten tea, but they have been a little fortunate in each of the last two weeks and most would likely pick the Clemson Tigers as the team to beat in the ACC.

As Week 6 proved, looking too far ahead is a big mistake for teams, players and fans and there should be a refocus after seeing some big named College teams beaten.

Once again, there are some big games on deck in Week 7 and the Picks can be read below.


Missouri Tigers @ Massachusetts Minutemen Pick: They were Ranked pretty highly, but it should not be ignored that the Missouri Tigers (4-1) had been set as the underdog when travelling to Texas A&M last week. Even then, it was an embarrassing capitulation from what had been an unbeaten team and Missouri fans and Head Coach Eli Drinkwitz will be expecting a big reaction.

The Tigers dropped to 1-1 in the Conference, but they will return to SEC action in Week 8 and have been given this opportunity to 'get right'.

It is no disrespect to Massachusetts Minutemen (1-5), but this is a huge step up for a team that has lost five of six games to begin the 2024 season. Outside of the blowout at the Buffalo Bulls, the Minutemen have been competitive, but they have also not played a Power 4 team like the one that will be heading into town.

There is an excitement about being given an opportunity to face a team from the SEC, but the Minutemen Defensive Line are going to have a really tough time competing with this Missouri Offensive Line. Being able to stop the run has been difficult for the Minutemen all season and now having to try and block off those lanes against a much stronger Offensive Line is likely going to make it a long day in the office for the Linemen.

Everyone knows that the Tigers want to pound the ball on the ground and then use that to open the rest of their playbook- this was not possible for them last week in their defeat, but Missouri should be much more comfortable on this side of the ball in Week 7 and that should see them in front of the chains and keeping drives ticking over.

Brady Cook has not had those stellar Quarter Back passing numbers, but he is capable of making enough plays where Missouri need them, while also being able to tuck the ball under his arm and run.

As the level of opponent has stepped up, the Missouri Defensive unit have perhaps not been as convincing as they have looked earlier in the season and that was evident in the defeat last week at Texas A&M. However, this is not going to be an Offensive unit that overly concerns the Tigers and they should be able contain this Umass run game.

Taisun Phommachanh has shown flashes of his ability in recent games and his ability as a dual-threat Quarter Back could help the Minutemen make a few plays, but he could also find the pocket collapsing if the home team are stuck in obvious passing situations.

Playing a clean game could help Massachusetts keep this one closer than the spread suggests, although the play is backing the road team to bounce back. The Tigers were embarrassed by the Aggies in Week 6 and that is gong to mean there is plenty of motivation to just put a big win on the board before returning to Conference play.

One concern with a number like this one is that the backdoor cover will be available if Missouri do begin to turn their attention to upcoming games with Auburn and Alabama. However, the Minutemen look like they could be worn down by the SEC power of the Missouri Tigers and this may end up being a strong win for the Power 4 team.


Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Pick: After a week in which they were sitting back and watching the chaos unfold, the Texas Longhorns (5-0) return to action against a familiar rival, albeit they are meeting under the SEC banner for the first time.

The Red River Rivalry against the Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) will be played at the Cotton Bowl Stadium and could have major ramifications for how the season plays out.

For all of their positive start, this is only the second SEC game for the Longhorns who have been moved above the likes of Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia after all three of those teams have been beaten over the last couple of weeks. However, there is still a considerably tough path to tread for Texas if they are going to play in the SEC Championship Game in their first season in the Conference and they will be more than aware of how little motivation is needed for the Sooners to want to upset them from that path.

The Sooners are 1-1 in the Conference having lost at home to the Volunteers, but recovering to beat the Auburn Tigers on the road in Week 5. Like Texas, Oklahoma have been on a Bye Week to prepare for the latest running of the Red River Rivalry, alhthough there have been more issues to clear up as far as the Sooners Offensive strategy goes.

Games between these rivals have tended to be very competitive and that will see plenty backing the underdog who are being given plenty of points in this one. Nine of the last ten games between Texas and Oklahoma have been won by fewer than nine points and both teams are going to be well prepared and waiting to compete in what should be another raucous atmosphere.

As stated, it has been a very tough season for the Sooners Offensively and the decision has been made to go with Michael Hawkins at Quarter Back having originially been splitting time between him and Jackson Arnold behind Center. It was Hawkins who was much more productive in the loss against Tennessee that saw him have complete control in the win at Auburn, but this is another huge challenge for the Sooners on this side of the ball.

The Offensive Line has not really been able to help the Quarter Back as would have been hoped and they are not likely going to have to a lot of success pounding the ball on the ground against this Texas Defensive Line. As the quality of opponent has ramped up, it is looking even tougher for the Sooners to establish the run and that is putting a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back to make plays.

Michael Hawkins is not expected to get a lot of time in the pocket with the Longhorns pass rush able to pin back their ears and get after the Quarter Back and so he will have to move around and try and extend plays. This can be dangerous against a Secondary that has played at a high level and who have found big turnovers to keep the pressure on opponents.

Of course this is only the second SEC game for the Longhorns so they may feel they are still in 'prove it' mode, especially considering the upsets that were recorded in this Conference last week and with the sole victory being against the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs.

This is a considerable step up and the rivalry makes it that much tougher, while Texas will also be dealing with a 'Quarter Back controversy' if things do not go as planned.

Arch Manning is always going to draw a lot of interest merely through his surname, but the performances in place of Quinn Ewers have got the College Football nation talking.

However, it cannot be ignored that Ewers began the season as the starter, has won fourteen of sixteen games leading the Texas Longhorns and that includes in incredibly hostile environments like Alabama and Michigan. These stack up to make Quinn Ewers an expected top five Draft choice and there is little doubt about his capabilities as he looks to get one over on Oklahoma after losing to them last year.

The feeling is that Arch Manning may be used at times with his dual-threat capabilities making this Longhorns Offensive unit that much more dangerous.

But Quinn Ewers is healthy and he will be able to quieten down any outside discussion, even when facing his toughest Defense of the relatively young season. Running the ball will be challenging, but there is a lot of faith in this Texas Offensive Line, while Ewers should find spaces to exploit in the Secondary.

Young Tennessee Quarter Back Nick Iamaleava had almost 200 passing yards in the road win over the Sooners, but Quinn Ewers is a stronger Quarter Back right now and is surrounded by playmakers that should keep the chains moving. His Offensive Line will provide some time and Ewers just has to play a cleaner game than when the Longhorns were beaten by Oklahoma in 2023 to push his own team clear.

Rivalry games can do funny things to teams and you cannot ignore how competitive games between these two schools have been on the football field. However, it was two years ago when the Longhorns blew out Oklahoma in a game where Quinn Ewers had 289 passing yards along with 4 Touchdown passes and the feeling is that the last weekend upsets will just refocus Texas and help them produce a statement win ahead of the big game with Georgia in Week 8.


Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: Let's not mess around at the beginning of this Pick- the battle of the Bulldogs will be won by Georgia and it would take an upset that surpasses any other we have seen this season if this game ended any other way.

The fact that the Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) have already been beaten in the Conference is only going to keep them that much more focused, even if they are hosting the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-4). A win over the Auburn Tigers allowed Georgia to bounce back from the defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide and move to 2-1 in the SEC, while Mississippi State were dropped to 0-2 in the Conference before heading into their Bye Week.

Even with the additional preparation time, Mississippi State are going to struggle to make this very competitive.

However, this is a monster line and there are some reasons to back the underdog Bulldogs to find a way to avoid the complete and utter blowout. You cannot ignore the schedule and the Georgia Bulldogs are heading into a pivotal game at the Number 1 Ranked Texas Longhorns in Week 8 before their own Bye Week.

This could lead to some of the key starters being pulled from this game and so the backdoor cover is absolutely going to be available, even as the Mississippi State Bulldogs as freshman Quarter Back Michael Van Buren Jr to lead the team.

Everything is a work in progress in what is Jeff Lebby's first season as Head Coach of Mississippi State and there is no doubting that is has been a disappointing start. The team have struggled Offensively, but they did score 28 points in the loss to the Florida Gators and you can certainly say that there have been signs that this Georgia Defensive unit is not as strong as some of the recent editions.

With all that in mind, there is little doubt it is going to be a real learning day for Quarter Back Michael Van Buren Jr, although the Offensive mind of his Head Coach will give him some chances to make plays. Having enough time in the pocket has been a problem for the Mississippi State Quarter Back, regardless of who that has been taking the snap, but if the backups come in, Van Buren Jr should have some limited successes.

When Georgia have the ball, they should be able to do much of what they want and Trevor Etienne is likely going to be a focus either running the ball or catching come out of the backfield. This looks a good chance for the Georgia Bulldogs Offensive Line to put in a big, big performance against the struggling Mississippi State Defensive Line and that should only make things extremely comfortable for Carson Beck.

The Quarter Back will be able to put up some very strong numbers against this Secondary, although Carson Beck is expected to be pulled out of the game if Georgia have taken a big lead. Even then, Beck will have plenty of time to throw against a Secondary that has allowed almost 300 passing yards on average across their last three games.

Mississippi State are not generating a lot of pressure, but it should be noted that the team were beaten 17 points against Florida and 22 points against Texas. Jeff Lebby has certainly got his team to compete, while the distraction of playing in Texas next week may make it very hard for Georgia to win by a five Touchdown mark.

Michael Van Buren Jr is going to have a tough afternoon, but avoiding turnovers will be key to give his Defensive unit a chance and the spread just looks far too big, even with the disparity of quality between the teams.


Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Every team will face setbacks and the character can only be shown by how those teams respond.

They were big favourites on the road, but the Tennessee Volunteers (4-1) were not able to hold onto what felt a big lead over the Arkansas Razorbacks and ultimately were handed their first loss of the season. It has dropped Tennessee to 1-1 in the Conference, and also dropped them in the Rankings, but all is not lost and things will look a lot different if Tennessee are able to bounce back and put a winning streak together.

The next visiting team is going to be the Alabama Crimson Tide, but the Volunteers will have to focus on this rivalry game first against the Florida Gators (3-2) who may have just cooled down the very hot seat on which their Head Coach had been sitting. It still feels a change will be made come the end of the season unless the Florida Gators really pick up their standards, but two wins in a row since losing to the Texas A&M Aggies will have everyone feeling better.

Florida's players will try and stay focused while the latest big hurricane rips a path through the State, and winning back to back games has just settled the team down. Billy Napier will be feeling stronger too and the Gators have dominated the Tennessee Volunteers in recent years, which will also give the road underdog real belief.

Once again it has to be noted that these rivalry games tend to be very competitive and three of the last four in this series has seen the underdog cover, even if they have been beaten outright.

The Gators will have been encouraged by the Defensive breakdown of the Volunteers in their defeat last week in Arkansas, especially as they were a stop away from winning that game. However, that will also mean Florida's Offensive unit have played their best game of the season, especially as they are facing a much tougher test than when beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs and UCF Knights.

This time Florida are facing a Volunteers Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run and who will be looking for redemption. Running the ball has not come easily to the Gators and so it could be down to Graham Mertz to try and put up points with his arm.

Graham Mertz has put together a decent stretch of outings, but this time he is facing a Tennessee Secondary that is much stronger than his last two opponents. While there should be some time for Mertz when stepping back to throw, he will have to be aware of the potential of having a pass Intercepted, while the Volunteers will be much better at home when it comes to those critical moments.

With that in mind, it may be up to the Florida Defensive unit to step up their own level and look to try and make things difficult for a freshman Quarter Back who has just had a couple of tough starts. Nick Iamaleava has massive potential, but he will be hoping that the Offensive Line can produce a much better effort all around and get this Volunteers team dominating on the ground.

Last week the Gators were able to control the Line of Scrimmage against the Knights as they earned the victory, but this Defensive Line have struggled at times and this is an even bigger test. It is going to be a key part of the outcome of the game, but the Volunteers have to believe they can keep Iamaleava in front of the chains and that should keep the drives ticking over.

Negating the pass rush pressure would really help Nick Iamaleava and there are one or two holes that can be exploited in the passing game. Of course the Tennessee game plan will be to avoid putting too much pressure on their Quarter Back, but they can do that by grinding down Florida on the ground and it could be a bounce back week in which the Volunteers remind everyone why they are amongst the favourites to reach the College Football PlayOffs.

Nothing is ever easy in rivalry games and this is a big spread, but Tennessee do look the stronger team on both sides of the ball and Florida are perhaps a touch overrated. The last two games on the schedule have been kind to Billy Napier and the Gators, but they were beaten by 24 points by the Miami Hurricanes and 13 points by the Texas A&M Aggies and both of those games were at home.

Winning on the road at Mississippi State is one thing, but doing so in Knoxville should be another altogether and Tennessee might just show their worth by not only coming out victorious, but by an impressive margin too.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Oregon Ducks Pick: There are a couple of other teams in the Big Ten that will certainly feel they can have a say in the final shakeup, but for many this could be the first of two meetings between the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) and the Oregon Ducks (5-0).

Previously this would have been a non-Conference game that could still have a big impact in what team would be invited into the College Football Playoff. The expanded Playoff picture means even the losing team will have an opportunity to recover, but this is a very big game and the Buckeyes and Ducks have both begun with 2-0 records in the Conference.

Both teams are very much relying on strong Defensive units to set the standard for any game in which they are involved and that is likely going to be the case in this primetime spot.

The Ducks have home advantage in this Conference game and they have a very experienced Quarter Back in Dillon Gabriel who has looked comfortable in this uniform. It helps that he is playing behind an impressive Oregon Offensive Line that have offered Gabriel all of the time he has needed by being strong in pass protection, while also bullying teams up front and opening up some significant running lanes.

Having that experience behind Center feels really important for Oregon considering the Defensive unit they are facing this week.

The only criticism yoiu may have of the Oregon Ducks so far this season is that they have been very strong through a weak schedule- it is not their fault of course and they have to beat what is in front of them, but you have to wonder if that has left them short of the tests needed before facing a team like the Buckeyes.

You could argue the same about the Ohio State schedule, but the performance of the Buckeyes Defense is much harder to dismiss with the team being very strong at the Line of Scrimmage. The Buckeyes have put together a solid pass rush too, which has helped this Secondary restrict the yards being allowed through the air, although Ohio State will be aware that this is the toughest Offense they have seen.

Much the same can be said when the Buckeyes have the ball in their hand- they have an experienced Quarter Back in Will Howard and a powerful Offensive Line that wants to set the tempo right out of the gate. There have been some big gains made on the ground, and the Offensive Line has offered Will Howard plenty of time to make his plays down the field.

The Ducks have been able to clamp down on the run, but their Defensive Line will face the biggest challenge so far this season. Earlier in the season there were one or two more holes that could have been exploited and Ohio State will certainly test to see if there has been proper work done to fill those issues.

There have also been a few more passing yards available to teams when facing the Ducks and that is where the difference could be made in this game, even with two very experienced Quarter Backs on the mound. We do know the Oregon Ducks can bring pressure, but the Buckeyes should be able to give Will Howard some time and he has some big playmakers that can step up and win their battles to find some spaces.

Ryan Day is under some pressure as the Ohio State Head Coach to show he can win the big games- his record against Ranked opponents is not very impressive, but this is a good chance to turn some of the narrative around. It is going to be a competitive game, but the Ohio State Buckeyes feel like the best team in the Big Ten and they can make a few more bigger plays Offensively to move into a position to win and cover, even in a tough road environment.

Turnovers are likely going to be a big factor, but all things being equal, the Buckeyes may be the ones who come out on top and they can head into their Bye Week with some real confidence behind them.

MY PICKS: Missouri Tigers - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 14 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs + 34 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

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