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Wednesday 5 June 2024

French Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Thursday 6th June)

There is also the scenario where upsets can turn a tennis draw lopsided and that is something that UEFA may come to understand in the years ahead with their new Knock Out format in the Champions League.

Two upsets on Wednesday has certainly given the end of the Women's French Open that kind of feeling with the first Semi Final likely to send a very strong favourite into Saturday's Final.

Both Jasmine Paolini and Mirra Andreeva have to be given a lot of credit for the runs made, but the winner of Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff is likely going to be adding another Grand Slam to their collection and that may just build further pressure on that Semi Final.

Those two players go up first before the second Semi Finalists both look for a major early achievement in their careers. It should be a good day of tennis for the fans before we get to find out which two players compete for the second Grand Slam of the 2024 season.


Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Coco Gauff: This is a match up between two of the top three players on the WTA Tour, but the spread is heavily skewed in favour of the World Number 1.

That isn't a massive surprise with this Grand Slam Semi Final being played on the clay courts in Paris, but there is also the match up problem overall for Coco Gauff who has lost ten of her eleven previous matches against Iga Swiatek.

The one win was on a fast court in Cincinnati, but Iga Swiatek got the better of Gauff in a couple of other hard court matches after that and the World Number 1 has won all four previous clay court matches against the American.

The most recent was in Rome in the build up to this French Open and Swiatek was a more comfortable winner than the final 6-4, 6-3 scoreline might have suggested.

It underlines the huge challenge that Coco Gauff faces- her best efforts have led to very one-sided defeats on this surface, while the overall record suggests Iga Swiatek has the perfect blend of attack and defence to give the World Number 3 fits on the court.

Eight of the previous eleven matches competed between these two players would have seen Iga Swiatek cover this line and she is playing at a remarkably high level since the almost upset Second Round win over Naomi Osaka.

Iga Swiatek's real edge is that she is able to control her points behind serve much more effectively than Coco Gauff and that is likely going to be shown up in this Semi Final.

The American does enjoy the clay courts and she is playing well, but that is not enough to compete with Iga Swiatek alone- Coco Gauff is going to have to find something special to find an upset, but it is unlikely and the expected outcome is a routine win for the favourite to lift the trophy for a third time in a row.


Jasmine Paolini-Mirra Andreeva Over 8.5 Match Breaks: The overwhelming feeling was that we were on a collision course between all of the top four players in the World Rankings when it came to the Semi Finals at Roland Garros in 2024. The World Number 1 and World Number 3 cemented their places to face off against one another on Tuesday, but Wednesday proved to be much different.

First up Elena Rybakina was upset by Jasmine Paolini and then an out of sorts Aryna Sabalenka was beaten by teenage prodigy Mirra Andreeva in the second Quarter Final.

So to say this is an unexpected Semi Final is putting it lightly.

However, both Paolini and Andreeva have to be given a lot of credit for the path they have cut through the draw and both are deserving of their place in the final four. Jasmine Paolini has impressed by showing grit and determination to work her way into the top 10 of the World Rankings, while Mirra Andreeva has heaps of potential and seems capable of fulfilling that very quickly.

Tension will be high in this second Semi Final on Thursday and that is not going to be a surprise.

New emotions will have to be contained with the two players a win away from reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final and the only hope is that both are able to free up and play the kind of tennis they have produced in Paris over the last couple of weeks.

Both of these players are comfortable on the red dirt and the return games have been very impressive and that is the main reason this feels like a match that will produce at least nine breaks of serve. Four of the five matches played by Jasmine Paolini has seen that mark surpassed, although it is only the case in two of the five matches played by Mirra Andreeva.

These two met in Madrid and shared out eleven breaks of serve that day in what was a two set win for the younger player and you do have to appreciate how well both Paolini and Andreeva have been returning in this event.

Mirra Andreeva does have the edge when it comes to the serve and that may ultimately be the reason she is able to reach what should be the first of many Grand Slam Finals, but the 17 year old will have to overcome some nerves. The Italian across the net will fight until the match is over and so this could be a back and forth Semi Final with a huge number of breaks of serve for both players.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jasmine Paolini-Mirra Andreeva Over 8.5 Match Breaks @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 19-7, + 15.52 Units (52 Units Staked, + 29.85% Yield)

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