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Friday 12 January 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Artur Beterbiev vs Callum Smith (January 13th)

We are yet to see full schedules released by the top promotion companies for the first half of the year, although a number of weekends have been filled through to the end of February.

Early next week the Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou press conference is set to take place in London, while other rumoured events are hoping to be signed off and announced soon.

However, while we are waiting for some fights to be announced, we do have a really big Light Heavyweight World Title fight this week in Quebec City. The assumption is that an Artur Beterbiev win will lead to an announcement that he will be taking on Dmitry Bivol for the Undisputed Title in the coming months, but Callum Smith, his supporters and promotional team are very much calling the upset.

It looks like being part of a solid month to open the Boxing year, while this looks to be the biggest fight until the Undisputed Heavyweight bout between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk which is now just over a month away from taking place in Saudi Arabia.

The undercard is decent enough and features a World Title defence and also the return of a potential Super Middleweight contender as he tries to push his unbeaten record on a wider platform.


The Picks went 1-1 last week as the top fights on the card both ended in the First Round.

Ismael Barroso's win over Ohara Davies was a stunning result for the older man and one that the latter will struggle to overcome. Excuses have been made, but Davies is going to need a big win to bounce back immediately, especially as most felt he was fortunate to even be in a spot such as he was.

Vergil Ortiz Jr also won in the First Round, although that was more down to a controversial step in from referee Tony Weeks.

The veteran referee was hugely criticised for Stopping the Barroso fight in his loss to Rolly Romero last year and it feels like Weeks' time at the top is over. He was once a very good referee, but poor decisions are becoming more frequent and his suggestion that he felt Lawson was cleared to fight with a dangerous aneurysm that showed up in his pre-fight tests is actually remarkable.

Tony Weeks has effectively suggested the Commission made a mistake clearing Lawson and that influenced his hugely premature decision to stop the fight when he did.

Personally that feels like an excuse that may cost him any further jobs in Nevada and ultimately may be the last words of a desperate man that does not want his career to end.



Artur Beterbiev vs Callum Smith

Eddie Hearn has suggested that Dmitry Bivol has signed off to face Artur Beterbiev for the Undisputed Light Heavyweight Title in his next bout as long as the Canada based Russian can win his fight this Saturday.

However, at the same time, Hearn is pretty bullish on the chances of Callum Smith upsetting those plans as the first really big fight of 2024 takes place this weekend.

Artur Beterbiev holds three of the World Titles, but he is 38 years old now and has only had one fight in each of the last two years. It is a couple weeks shy of being twelve months since Beterbiev was last seen in action as he came through some difficult moments before eventually Stopping Anthony Yarde in London.

You do have to wonder if this inactivity is going to hold him back, while there is always the concern that Artur Beterbiev ages overnight. He lives a solid life outside of the ring, but ultimately he is a week away from turning 39 years old and there have perhaps been one or two signs that he is not quite at his peak level in a couple of his recent fights.

The Champion still hits hard and he will come forward looking for the heavy shots to put his opponent under pressure and it would be more guesswork than actual knowledge to believe Beterbiev is going to age in the ring this time around.

Inactivity is always an issue as you get older and Deontay Wilder found that out last month in Saudi Arabia- however, he was beaten by a fighter who has been plenty active of late and that is not the case with this Challenger.

Callum Smith has quite surprisingly not been in the ring since August 2022 and he has only won a couple of low level fights since moving into the Light Heavyweight Division after being outfought by Canelo Alvarez at Super Middleweight.

Both of those victories have come relatively early and it does mean that Callum Smith has only had SIX competitive Rounds since December 2020.

The British fighter is tall and does have some pop, but the performance against Canelo is a little concerning.

He quickly decided that he would cover up and try and get to the scorecards in that defeat and Callum Smith gave away his World Title with very little pushback on the night.

The feeling is that he might give it a go early, and there is confidence from within the camp, but that the Artur Beterbiev power will be a real eye-opener for Callum Smith. It may mean he looks to counter and eventually begin to try and move away and stay out of distance, much like he did against Canelo.

Callum Smith went into his shell when he felt he could not win, but Beterbiev hits hard enough to break through the defences as he did when wiping out Marcus Browne and Anthony Yarde. The Champion is someone who will put on educated pressure and Artur Beterbiev can get through early pressure before taking over and eventually breaking down Smith and forcing a second half Stoppage.

The expectation is that Callum Smith is not going to take the Joe Smith Jr route of all out aggression and hoping something lands.

Four of the last five Stoppages produced by Artur Beterbiev have come in the second half of bouts as he has broken down opponents and that looks the most likely outcome of this Championship bout.


Quebec City is hosting this card and Top Rank have offered up an unbeaten Super Middleweight to take part and continue his push towards a World Title shot.

Christian Mbilli has just begun to step up his level of competition and takes on Rohan Murdock who has won three in a row since an Eleventh Round Stoppage at the hands of Zach Parker.

The Australian has been relatively inactive and certainly compared with unbeaten Christian Mbilli, who can start quickly and perhaps even find a finish before hearing the bell for the Sixth Round.


Another World Title is also being defended on the card by Jason Moloney and he is expected to have too much experience for Saul Sanchez.

With his two defeats coming against top fighters, Moloney has bounced back to win the WBO World Title. He has been in with a much higher quality of opponent than his American opponent and that should show up on the night with the feeling being that the Champion can win a Decision.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)
Christian Mbilli to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 1-1, - 0.68 Units (4 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)

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