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Saturday 29 July 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford (July 29th)

Boxing is a sport that will always show off elite talent in the most brutal of ways... There really is no hiding place once you've found out the opponent in the other corner is levels above your own skillset.

Sometimes you will see really good fighters find that out when facing an elite, generational talent and that was the case on Tuesday when Stephen Fulton saw his 122 pound World Titles ripped away from him in Tokyo by The Monster.

Naoya Inoue has looked like a superstar, but this was a genuinely tough test for him moving up in weight to face the best Super Bantamweight in the World.

He made it look easy.

Saying that does not make Fulton a bad fighter behind that performance, but it underlines Naoya Inoue's place in the sport right now and not many would pick any other fighter above in the mythical pound for pound list.

For me it was arguably the finest performance from any fighter since the pandemic and Naoya Inoue is almost certainly going to have an opportunity to become Undisputed in his next fight. Doing that in two Divisions in a row will elevate a fighter, who is already a superstar, and Inoue may soon be thinking of taking on Robeisy Ramirez who won comfortably on the undercard.

Stephen Fulton can come again, most likely in the Featherweight Division, but the spoils go to the victor and Naoya Inoue will be the one making the headlines... At least until Sunday morning.


Naoya Inoue would have been elevated to the top spot in most pound for pound Rankings on Tuesday, but on Saturday the Welterweight Division is expected to have an Undisputed Champion in place (assuming no draw) when Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford meet.

After the horrible scoring we saw in the United States last week, Boxing has needed a week like this one with two top fights within the space of a few days, but you have to still hope we don't see a Maxi Hughes kind of Decision in the main event.


I really hope Maxi Hughes gets another opportunity having deserved to earn the nod over George Kambosos Jr last weekend.

It was a close fight, but it did feel like Hughes had done enough... And that makes the 117/111 card handed in to favour Kambosos Jr feel all the more nonsensical.

He might not want to admit it, but George Kambosos Jr did earn some home cooking with his name preserved for someone else to beat him and not a fighter of little note world-wide like a tough veteran in Hughes.

Like in the WWE, the rub to beat Kambosos Jr can only be given to a name that can be made on the back of beating the former Undisputed Champion and that is where Boxing has always let itself down. While he will be able to move on to some big fights against the likes of Shakur Stevenson, Maxi Hughes has to hope to be given another deserved opportunity and that just seems unfair considering how well Maxi did in that fight.


Tuesday brought a solid return for the Boxing Picks thanks to Robeisy Ramirez winning in the first half of the fight, which hopefully gives us something to build upon.

The big card on Saturday will be coming from Las Vegas, but there is a decent main event taking place in the United Kingdom before that.



Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford

This has been a fight that has been close before, but never materialised to the frustration of the Boxing fans around the world.

No other fight has mattered in the Welterweight Division over the last couple of years, but it looks like we are finally here with all of the Belts on the line.

Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford have been amongst the best pound for pound fighters in the world for a long time- Crawford has to be credited for becoming Undisputed at Light Welterweight before maintaining that run at 147, while Spence Jr has long felt like he has been the King of the Division since knocking off Kell Brook to begin his run.

Fans of both will argue long into the night about the respective resume strength of their favourite compared with the other, while fans of The Truth and Bud will point to their man as the who is currently sitting on the Welterweight throne.

For me I have been a part of Team Truth for a long time and I do genuinely think Errol Spence Jr can win this fight.

In saying that, I have a lot of respect for Bud Crawford and he has shown a killer instinct that makes him very dangerous. He can sometimes need a couple of Rounds to warm into a fight, but once Crawford gets going, he can be very difficult to stop and that will be the challenge for Errol Spence Jr who is the naturally bigger man.

There is plenty of power from the Errol Spence Jr corner too, although he has shown a strong style to break down opponents and not go searching for a Knock Out that has eventually come more often than not anyway. He will feel he can try and fight in a similar manner to his victory over Mikey Garcia when Spence Jr used his size and strong Boxing skills to keep Garcia from mounting any kind of offensive game plan.

It will be much tougher to do that against Terence Crawford, who is bigger than Garcia and who has been at 147 for some time.

No one will doubt the talent that Terence Crawford has and he will certainly feel he can hurt Errol Spence Jr who has been rock hard in his career, but has had one or two moments when he has clearly felt a shot from an opponent. Most notably that happened in the win over Yordenis Ugas, although Spence Jr has suggested he was worried about losing his teeth rather than actually being hurt when momentarily stunned in that contest.

Someone like Crawford has shown he is like a shark that smells blood in the water- if he thinks he has you hurt, he is willing to unload everything to force the contest to an end. Even against an elite opponent like Errol Spence Jr, Terence Crawford will be looking to press those moments and it just has the makings of a really fun fight.

We have not seen Crawford hurt since moving up to Welterweight, but Spence Jr is the biggest, toughest puncher he will have fought in the Division. So while we have not seen it in a while, I don't think it is impossible for Errol Spence Jr to put Terence Crawford in a tough spot where he is forced to hang on.

However, Terence Crawford is a really smart fighter and you have to believe that after a few Rounds he is going to have worked out the established approach that Errol Spence Jr has long used to dominate his opponents. A sharpshooting counter puncher like Crawford could easily lure Spence Jr into a monster shot, while most will feel that Bud has a bit more creativity to his style which will allow him to make more adjustments if he feels the fight is slipping away.

It does feel like Errol Spence Jr's tactic has to work- he will find it tougher to make those in-ring adjustments and that is where the difference is perhaps being felt in Vegas who have Terence Crawford as the favourite. They will feel he can win this fight in more ways than Errol Spence Jr and ultimately that makes it much easier to pick Crawford as the favourite.

Of course that is not to say that Errol Spence Jr cannot make a fast enough start to bank the early Rounds and eventually take this on a Decision, but fans of Bud Crawford are going to feel that their man will make the necessary adjustments to turn this fight before too many Rounds have been lost. His counter-punching style and offensive output when an opponent is hurt will also have Crawford fans believing that he can put Errol Spence Jr down for the first time and potentially do enough to have the referee step in late.

Inactivity is going to be a problem for The Truth a little more than Crawford, while you can never really know how those car crashes that Errol Spence Jr has been involved in will catch up with him. Retina issues have also come up, which prevented Spence Jr from taking on Manny Pacquiao, and there does seem to be a few more miles on the clock compared with Terence Crawford.

I have always been a fan of Errol Spence Jr, but Terence Crawford deserves the utmost respect and has proven himself as a good person outside of the ring with his charitable acts. I would not begrudge Crawford winning, although at this point I don't really want to see either of these absolute elite boxers lose.

Someone has to lose though and my heart is rooting for Errol Spence Jr, but my head is leaning towards Terence Crawford maybe doing just enough on the cards. He might even score a flash Knock Down that ends up being the difference, but Spence Jr is also more than capable of putting Crawford on the canvas and there is so little to choose between them.

This is genuinely the best fight we have had put together in a long time and I am going to stay firmly on the fence with any prediction- seriously, this is one to enjoy without any kind of pick.


Let's be honest, when you have a fight of this magnitude, the undercard does not have to be as loaded as other events.

That is the case for this one in Las Vegas, although there will be some interest to see the outcome of those bouts.

Sergio Garcia is heading back to the United States to try and pick up a win after losing to Sebastian Fundora and Tony Harrison in Decisions- the Spaniard has had the money come in on him with him down as the favourite against Yoenis Tellez, although little is really known about the Cuban who had a 23-6 amateur record.

It is an important fight for Garcia who will have opportunities in the Light Middleweight Division if Jermell Charlo decides to relinquish his Titles after becoming Undisputed and now moving up to face Canelo in September.

Yoenis Tellez is a late replacement, but was preparing for a fight next month, and this feels a considerable step up in class from the previous five professionals faced. He has fought on a big card before, but not with these kind of eyes on the event and Tellez may just find this is a steep learning curve.


This week we have already seen Naoya Inoue in action as he moved up to Super Bantamweight to win two World Titles in that Division, but he has left his Undisputed Titles fractured at Bantamweight.

One of his previous victims, Nonito Donaire, will be on the undercard looking to pick up the vacant WBC World Title when facing Alexandro Santiago in a fight that was pushed back a couple of weeks onto this card.

At 40 years old you have to wonder how much Donaire has left and even more so considering we last saw him being blitzed inside two Rounds by the aforementioned Inoue. That bout took place over twelve months ago and you have to believe that he is going to be vulnerable in this one against a decent fighter in his Mexican opponent.

A very close loss to then unbeaten Gary Antonio Russell shows what Alexandro Santiago is capable of, and the younger fighter has won three in a row since that defeat. The last two wins have been in the time that Donaire has not been out in the ring, so Santiago may have an edge thanks to activity, while a victory over Antonio Nieves is a decent one.

This is the biggest platform Alexandro Santiago will have had, and his toughest opponent on paper- if Donaire is anywhere near his best, you would expect him to win, but I can't help feel his best days are behind him and this is a big opportunity for Santiago to make up for what he will feel was a tough loss to Russell.

He will have to be wary of the power that Donaire has, but Alexandro Santiago can earn a mini-upset and win the World Title.


The chief support fight on the undercard will feature Isaac Cruz who continues to push for a rematch with Gervonta Davis.

He is facing an unbeaten opponent in Giovanni Cabrera who is taller by some margin and had a solid win over Gabriel Flores Jr twelve months ago, but inactivity is an issue for the American.

You can't help but feel that Isaac Cruz is being put in a position for that rematch with Tank and so his handlers are unlikely to have him in a risky fight. The two wins since his loss to Davis have both been inside the first half of contests and you have to believe he is going to come out swinging at the taller man.

Giovanni Cabrera has shown he has some skills so has to be respected, but Isaac Cruz is looking to make a big statement and I think he can achieve that relatively early.


Before all eyes turn to Las Vegas, there is a decent looking main event in the UK.

Moses Itauma needed the cards in his his third win as a professional in April, although that victory looks pretty handy considering Kostiantyn Dovbyshchenko was last seen stopping Matty Harris.

A hand issue seemed to be an issue for Itauma, but he can get back on the Stoppage trail with a victory against a tough opponent in Kevin Nicolas Espindola who had to retire with a hand issue in his defeat to Frazer Clarke.

Prior to that he had lost six times without being Stopped, but the feeling is that Moses Itauma can put enough punches together to maybe have the referee step in during this contest.

The main event will be a grudge fight between Jason Cunningham and Liam Davies.

There is clearly no love lost between them in what feels like a crossroads fight- Davies is looking to push on to the level that Cunningham has fought at, while the latter feels like he may be on the way down the mountain.

All credit has to be given to Jason Cunningham for making a career for himself that he has, but Liam Davies is younger, fresher and fighting in front of his fans. He is not exactly known for his punch power, but Davies has shown he has enough pop and the feeling is that he can wear down an older fighter with plenty of miles on the clock.

Jason Cunningham returned from a devastating loss to Zolani Tete to win a Ten Rounder in March, but that loss to Tete might still be on the back of the mind if Liam Davies is able to turn the screw in this contest.

The Decision win for Davies is the favourite play, but the suggestion is that the home crowd will keep Liam Davies motivated to finish this fight if the opportunity is there do that. There is no doubting the toughness of Jason Cunningham who has had a number of upsets in recent fights, but the younger, fresher Davies can turn it on late and force a Stoppage victory.

MY PICKS: Sergio Garcia to Win @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandro Santiago to Win @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Isaac Cruz to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Moses Itauma to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liam Davies to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 34-61, - 19.32 Units (178 Units Staked, - 10.85% Yield)

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