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Wednesday 7 June 2023

French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2023 (June 7th)

There has been a fear for Tennis fans that something would be lost at the end of the 'Big Three' era- Roger Federer's time has come and gone, while Rafael Nadal has effectively announced his retirement tour will be played in 2024.

Novak Djokovic is still near his very best, but the future has begun to look brighter behind Carlos Alcaraz.

The Spaniard looks like he will lead the way for men's tennis in the years ahead, although it will be good to see if someone can step up and create a real rivalry for the 20 year old. There are some contenders, but the Alcaraz performance in the crushing win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Quarter Final suggests there is already a gap to bridge between himself and those who are going to take the challenge on once the Novak Djokovic era is over.

That Semi Final could be seen as a 'passing of the torch' moment on Friday, but I am sure Djokovic is going to be confident going into Wimbledon and the US Open no matter what happens. After all, Novak Djokovic is the Australian Open Champion and clay has long been his most difficult surface, but I am sure he will want to put Carlos Alcaraz in his place.

It is a match to think about for another day, but one that most fans will already be salivating over.


Before that we need to set the women's Semi Final line up and also have those matches played on Thursday before the men's Semi Final matches on Friday. The last four Quarter Final matches are all played on Wednesday on Day 11 at Roland Garros with the main event being the rematch between Holger Rune and Casper Ruud in the Night Session.

After a mixed day for the Tennis Picks, I will be looking for better on Day 11.

I feel I could have had a bit more luck with my selections on Day 10, but ultimately I am happy to have avoided any big return on the day.


Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: You can always do with a little bit of luck if you want to make a big impact at a Grand Slam event and Tomas Martin Etcheverry has taken advantage of what has looked a kind draw. The World Number 2 was beaten in the First Round to open up this section, while Etcheverry may have benefited from facing Alex de Minaur, Borna Coric and Yoshihito Nishioka as the Seeded players on his way to a maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final.

Ultimately you can only beat the opponent standing on the other side of the net and Tomas Martin Etcheverry has managed his emotions really well in the tournament. Confidence will only have grown from the fact that the Argentine has yet to drop a set in Paris and he will feel he has nothing to lose in his third full season on the Tour and trying to make his way into the Grand Slam events.

The serve has been a huge weapon for Tomas Martin Etcheverry through the first four Rounds at Roland Garros and it has certainly set up the rest of his tennis. However, he has yet to play on the main court here at the French Open and there might be a bit more pressure on this aspect of his tennis on a surface which has seemingly played a little slower than the others around Roland Garros.

I still think Tomas Martin Etcheverry will be looking to put scoreboard pressure onto his opponent by serving big, but Alexander Zverev looks to be peaking in the tournament and I do think this is the toughest opponent that Etcheverry will have faced in this tournament so far.

Prior to the French Open, Etcheverry only had a 4-7 record against top 50 Ranked opponents, while he had lost all four matches against top 20 Ranked opponents before the wins here. Tomas Martin Etcheverry had really struggled on the return in this matches and now has to face an Alexander Zverev serve which can be very productive at its best and one that should be more effective in the hot conditions expected in Paris during the day.

In the last two wins, Frances Tiafoe and Grigor Dimitrov were able to have some joy against the Zverev serve in the Night Session, but it should be tougher for Etcheverry who had only won 29% of return points against the top 20 opponents faced in the warm up to the French Open.

Alexander Zverev has been picking up his level on the return of serve in the last three wins in Paris as his confidence has grown and he has broken at least five times in each of those victories. Those have included those two top 30 wins and I think Alexander Zverev's experience should also give him an edge against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in this Quarter Final, which will eventually see the German fight through with a good, solid victory.


Holger Rune-Casper Ruud over 38.5 games: There is no love lost between these two Scandinavian players and I am not sure they will ever be on each other's Christmas card list, but that should make for a very interesting Quarter Final between Holger Rune and Casper Ruud.

This is a repeat of a bad-tempered Quarter Final played between the two at the French Open twelve months ago, a match that was eventually won in four sets by Casper Ruud on his way to the Final.

Their sole meeting since that Quarter Final took place last month in Rome and it was Holger Rune who beat Casper Ruud for the first time as he came from a set down and eventually pulled clear for the win in the Semi Final.

It is a victory that will give Holger Rune confidence and he might be grateful for a Second Round walkover after Gael Monfils withdrew from the tournament. The Fourth Round win over Francisco Cerundolo took five sets and a Super Tie-Breaker, although Rune did not have to spend considerably longer on the court than Casper Ruud in his own Fourth Round win.

The match would have still taken an emotional effort and Holger Rune was perhaps a little fortunate to come through on the day considering the huge disparity between him and Cerundolo when it came to the Break Points created. The Dane will feel he has not been at his complete best at the French Open considering his successes on the clay courts in the build up to the second Grand Slam of the season, but Holger Rune is still alive in the draw and he will be dangerous.

Casper Ruud will know all about the talent that Holger Rune possesses, but he has been peaking in this tournament and is coming out of a tough three set win over Nicolas Jarry. He showed his quality at key moments in that match, but Ruud is well aware that he will need to be even better if he is going to work his way past a talented young opponent and get a little closer to a maiden Grand Slam title.

The serve is going to need to be better with Casper Ruud allowing far too many Break Point chances in the Fourth Round win over Nicolas Jarry. On another day he would have been dragged into a five hour match if Jarry had just held himself together at key moments in all three sets completed, but Ruud will take some confidence from the fact he could play some of his best tennis at the most pivotal of moments.

I do think Holger Rune might be a bit more tested with this being his seventh match against a top 20 opponent on the clay courts in 2023 and all of those have actually been against the very best players as all have been top 10 opponents. Holger Rune has a 4-2 record in those matches too, while Casper Ruud's sole top 20 match is the defeat to Rune in Rome last month.

That can be important in these big matches at the Grand Slam events, although Casper Ruud has to be full of belief having largely gotten the better of Holger Rune before that loss. The scoreboard might have suggested it was an easy enough win for the younger player, but it was much closer than that and Casper Ruud was just not able to win the big points as consistently as Rune was on the day.

It was different here in Paris last year when Ruud dominated the Break Point count, but that was another match that saw plenty of ebbs and flows and I do think that will be the case in this Quarter Final in 2023.

I would be very surprised if this match ended in straight sets for either player and that makes the total games already feel on the short side. At least one tie-breaker has to be expected with the way that both can serve at times and I do think this has the potential of being a very close match that may even need a deciding set to separate them.

The matches played between these two rivals since April 2022 have all been very, very competitive and I think that is going to be the case on Day 11 at the French Open.

The four setter twelve months ago ended with 39 total games thanks to Casper Ruud winning the first set 6-1, but I think all the sets will be more competitive this time around. They played 31 games in the three set match in Rome last month and this total is one that can be covered as long as the Quarter Final lasts at least four sets.


Ons Jabeur - 4.5 games v Beatriz Haddad Maia: Having to spend almost four hours on court is not ideal, even with a day off between matches, but that is what Beatriz Haddad Maia has to deal with ahead of her first Grand Slam Quarter Final. A back and forth Fourth Round win over Sara Sorribes Tormo will have taken a lot of out of the Brazilian from an emotional and physical point of view and the competitive just gets tougher.

Three of the four wins earned by Beatriz Haddad Maia have been against opponents Ranked 67 or higher, while two of those wins have been against players outside of the top 100. Despite that, Haddad Maia has had to spend well over eight hours on the court in the last three wins in Paris and there has to be an impact in her level of performance.

Nothing has come easy for Beatriz Haddad Maia and that is going to be the case again in this Quarter Final as she faces Ons Jabeur who is looking to reach her first Semi Final at the French Open having finished Wimbledon and the US Open as Runner Up in 2022. The World Number 7 is looking for a maiden Grand Slam title, but Ons Jabeur looks to be in good shape after missing much of the clay court season with an injury.

An early loss at Rome meant Jabeur might have felt undercooked going into the French Open, but she has looked very good in the tournament with a single set dropped and largely dominant performances.

Ons Jabeur will know she needs to serve better than she did in the Fourth Round if she is going to reach the Final, especially considering who is likely to be waiting in the Semi Final, but this does look a good Quarter Final for her.

She should have success on the return of serve in this match, even more so if Beatriz Haddad Maia is feeling her exertions from the last three Rounds, and I think that will help Ons Jabeur on the serve.

I would not be surprised if there are a lot of breaks of serve during the course of this match, but I have to give the edge to the Tunisian player with the expectation that she will have a lot more in the tank. Ons Jabeur also has the mental advantage of having beaten Beatriz Haddad Maia for the loss of just three games on the indoor clay court in Stuttgart in April and I do think the higher Ranked player will have too much for Haddad Maia.


Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Coco Gauff: I know, I know, this is a very big spread for any player to cover when both are sitting inside the top 10 of the World Rankings and especially in a best of three set match.

However, there does feel like a much bigger gap between World Number 1 Iga Swiatek and World Number 6 Coco Gauff than the five places in the Rankings may suggest and that is very much the case on the clay courts.

Winning two of the last three French Open titles is one thing, but Iga Swiatek has crushed opponents on this surface over the last three seasons. In her run to another Quarter Final, Iga Swiatek has an edge of 41-9 in terms of games, while only the other two members of the new 'Big Three' on the WTA Tour have beaten the Pole on the red dirt in 2023.

Coco Gauff will know how tough it is to play Iga Swiatek on this court having been blitzed in the French Open Final in 2022 and her four wins in this tournament have been against players Ranked Number 61 or lower. This is not ideal preparation for facing someone of the talent and quality of the top Seed, while Gauff was well beaten in her last three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts prior to the French Open beginning.

The American has produced numbers that are comparable to Iga Swiatek in her four wins in Paris, but this is a huge step up in class for Gauff who has struggled to compete with this opponent.

Their first meeting in Rome on the clay courts in 2021 was very close, but Iga Swiatek won on that day and she has really been very easy with the match up with Coco Gauff since then. In their last five matches, Iga Swiatek has a 60-20 edge in terms of games won and she has won every set and Coco Gauff has only reached four games in a single set once.

That did come in Dubai earlier this year on a hard court, but Coco Gauff only won six games that day and I do think Iga Swiatek is going to have far too much for this opponent.

We know that Gauff is talented and she is going to make progress to close the gap to the current top three in the years ahead, but right now there is a big gap between her and those trio at the top of the women's game.

A spread like this one does not take much to cover and just needs twenty really strong minutes from Coco Gauff, but I do think it is a poor match up for her. On a clay court, Iga Swiatek should have an even greater edge and I think she has all of the tools to stroll past this opponent and earn another Grand Slam Semi Final spot.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Holger Rune-Casper Ruud Over 38.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

French Open Update: 38-25, + 13.98 Units (126 Units Staked, + 11.10% Yield)

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