Recent winners of both of these tournaments have varied from the expected to the upset and I do think this one is wide open for contenders throughout the draws.
I should have fuller threads with more thoughts as the tournament progresses, but the opening two days are being researched around other events in my personal life so these two threads will be around the Picks from the First Round matches to be played.
John Isner - 1.5 sets v Brandon Nakashima: Two American players meet in the First Round of the US Open and that is expected to generate a big atmosphere on Day 1 of the final Grand Slam of the season. Fans were unable to attend last season, but New York City is open for business again and seeing two home hopes should only build on the emotions of returning to the stands for all of those in attendance.
It has been a really productive summer for both John Isner and Brandon Nakashima and that should mean we have two confident players meeting in the First Round. John Isner reached the Semi Final of the tournament in Los Cabos, but he has really begun motoring on his return to the North American hard courts with another title earned in Atlanta, and a Semi Final run in Toronto before another couple of matches were won in Cincinnati.
That is hugely encouraging for the veteran who has had a mixed 2021 on the hard courts, which are John Isner's favourite surface. His serve remains a potent weapon for the big man and his run in New York City is going to be based around the serve and how much he can get out of that on a consistent basis.
Brandon Nakashima is up to a career best Number 83 in the World Rankings and he reached the Final in Los Cabos and Atlanta, although ultimately came up short in both tournaments. He put another couple of solid wins on the board in Washington, but Nakashima has lost his last two matches and that has to be a slight negative going against him.
These two have met twice already over the last six weeks and both John Isner and Brandon Nakashima hold a straight sets win over the other. It was Nakashima who won the first meeting in Los Cabos, but Isner earned revenge in the Atlanta Final and both were big-serving encounters with very little between them.
You can see how much John Isner learned from the first meeting as he produced the majority of break points in the rematch, and I do think the veteran can use the big serve to edge past Brandon Nakashima. The latter should be able to take a set, but John Isner found a bit more out of the return in the second of the two matches and I think the experience means he should know exactly how to approach this First Round match.
That should be enough for John Isner to win the big points like he did in the Atlanta Final against Brandon Nakashima and I think he comes through in a likely four set battle.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 sets v Nick Kyrgios: It is never easy to back against Nick Kyrgios producing a big effort in a Grand Slam, especially as the Australian has made it clear that he prefers performing for the big crowds. There should be a big crowd in for this match and Nick Kyrgios has the kind of tennis that can take the racquet out of the hand of any opponent he faces, although his performances over the last month have been less than special.
Nick Kyrgios decided he would not travel while the global pandemic continued and especially not with the Australian authorities making it very difficult to return home. After several months away from the Tour, Kyrgios has decided to take part in the final two Grand Slam events of 2021, but relatively early losses in Atlanta, Washington and Toronto have not raised hopes.
He also pulled out of the tournament in Winston Salem last week and I do have to question if Nick Kyrgios has enough in the tank to progress through the best of five set matches. It does give him time to turn matches around if he starts off poorly, but Nick Kyrgios won't want to give too much momentum to his opponent in the First Round.
Roberto Bautista Agut is a solid hard court player, but he has not been playing that well since Wimbledon which reduces some of the enthusiasm in expecting a good run in New York City. The Spaniard has simply not played the big points as well as he would have liked on the hard courts in 2021 and Roberto Bautista Agut has seen his numbers slip behind serve and return.
That has to be encouraging for Nick Kyrgios, but his own return has not been functioning to the level he would like and you just know that Roberto Bautista Agut is going to try and drag his opponent in long, gruelling rallies wherever he can.
The most recent meeting between these players came in January 2020 and took place in Australia- Roberto Bautista Agut crushed Nick Kyrgios that day and I do think he is playing well enough to beat someone who can be unfocused at times.
Nick Kyrgios is going to be reliant on the big serve and if that is working at its best he can be very, very dangerous. However, the Australian has only broken in 4% of return games played on the hard courts over the last six weeks and that has put Kyrgios under an immense amount of pressure to hold onto serve and his 86% mark has not quite cut the mustard.
This should be a fun match to watch, but I think Roberto Bautista Agut is going to have enough to play the superior tennis at key moments. It should mean a place in the Second Round can be secured behind a three or four set win.
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v Carlos Alcarez: This is a really interesting First Round match between Cameron Norrie and Carlos Alcarez- the latter is one of the potential stars of the Tour for years to come, while Cameron Norrie is one of the more improved players of the last twelve months.
Cameron Norrie won the title in Los Cabos, but his performances since that win in late July have not been up to the kind of standard he is beginning to set for himself. Four defeats in the six matches played since winning that title is not ideal ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season, but the only positive I can give to the British player is that the last two losses have come against top 30 Ranked opponents.
Both Karen Khachanov and John Isner are comfortable hard court players and Cameron Norrie will feel he should have won the latter match anyway. His 80% hold mark and 30% break mark on the hard courts in 2021 are very encouraging numbers for Norrie though and he is also going to feel he can get the better of a young opponent who doesn't have the deepest hard court experience.
Not having enough respect for Carlos Alcarez would be a major issue for Cameron Norrie, but I would not expect that to be the case after the Spaniard reached the Winston Salem Semi Final last week. Carlos Alcarez is finding his feet on this surface though and his 76% hold mark against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface is a potential problem for the young player as he takes on Cameron Norrie.
That number drops to 64% when you only take into consideration matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021 and I do think Norrie is someone who has played well enough to take advantage. Carlos Alcarez is a strong returner and broken in 30% of the return games played against top 50 Ranked opponents so I would expect him to play his part in this match and there will be some ebbs and flows in terms of the momentum.
Cameron Norrie should have the edge with the stronger service numbers and having shown a capability to break serve on the hard court. The recent form does reduce some of the enthusiasm in backing the British player, but I think he will be the stronger of the two of the day and can win in three or, more likely, four sets as he moves through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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