US Open Day 12 Picks 2018 (September 7th)

It is only in the last few years that the US Open made the correct decision to scrap 'Super Saturday' and move the men's Semi Finals to Friday which gives the two winning players a good amount of time to recover for the Final.

Prior to that decision being made, the winner of the second Semi Final was clearly in a very poor position when it came to getting ready for the Final and so it was only right the US Open did what the other three Grand Slams have and that is play both men's Semi Finals on the Friday.

At this moment I would make Novak Djokovic the favourite to win the title in Flushing Meadows, but it will all play out over the last three days of the US Open.


Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: There has been a lot of time spent on the court for Rafael Nadal and I do have to wonder if that is going to have an impact on his performance when he takes on Juan Martin Del Potro in the US Open Semi Final.

The five sets needed to see off Dominic Thiem meant Nadal was out on court well over three hours and the conditions in New York makes that very difficult to deal with. Add in the dropped sets in the Third and Fourth Round and you can see that Nadal has not been at his very best in the tournament where he is the defending Champion.

It will likely be more tough conditions to deal with on Friday when Nadal and Del Potro take to the court, but the latter will be confident having destroyed the Spaniard in this Round when going on to win the US Open back in 2009. Juan Martin Del Potro has only dropped one set in the tournament so far so has to be feeling very good about his game as he looks to change the narrative on matches with Nadal at the Grand Slams.

This is the fourth Grand Slam in the last five played that Nadal and Del Potro have come up against one another and it is the Spaniard who has won the last three. The wins in the US Open twelve months ago and at the French Open came very comfortably for Nadal, but it was a tough five setter at Wimbledon and Del Potro has been serving well enough to think he is not going to go away quietly in this one either.

However I do think the surface condition may narrowly favour Nadal who has shown tremendous strength of character to get out of some difficult spots so far in the tournament. He hasn't been at his dominant best but there has been enough to like from Nadal to think he can beat Del Potro for a fourth Grand Slam meeting in a row.

Juan Martin Del Potro has been serving very well and he is happy enough with the speed of the court, although the former Champion has not played anyone like Nadal yet. The performance at Wimbledon will have given Del Potro more confidence he can challenge Nadal, but the previous two matches had been won by Nadal with some comfort and I do think the speed of the court will suit the Spaniard.

The time spent on court is a concern for Nadal, but I think he will be a little too good for Del Potro despite the form the latter has shown in the tournament.


Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The second Semi Final is a repeat of one played a few years ago when Kei Nishikori got the better of Novak Djokovic, although the head to head has been one-sided ever since.

This has always been a match up that Djokovic has enjoyed as he gets a good rhythm from Nishikori and simply does everything a little better than the Japanese player.

There are times when Nishikori builds momentum within a match, but generally it is Djokovic who dictates the rally and the tempo of the match and it has led to some strong wins for him. The matches are not always so clear cut on the scoreboard which does make this a big number of games for Djokovic to clear, but the slightly cooler temperatures in New York have to help and I think the former World Number 1 and Wimbledon Champion is going to be a little too good in this Semi Final.

Kei Nishikori has to be respected because he has played well this week, although the tough five set win over Marin Cilic will have taken something out of the tank. The day in between the Quarter Final and this Semi Final will have certainly helped, but Nishikori has been blighted by physical problems throughout his career and is one of my main knocks as to why he hasn't played in more Grand Slam Semi Final and Final matches.

There will be some quality tennis produced by these two players, but I think Djokovic is going to have the large majority of break points. If he is more clinical than he was against John Millman in the Quarter Final I would expect Djokovic to be able to win this match and cover the number.

I do think the conditions being that much cooler will help Djokovic, and I will back the former World Number 1 to potentially set up the Final all fans at the US Open and watching at home will be hoping for.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 24-21, + 3.74 Units (80 Units Staked, + 4.68% Yield)