Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 10-12)

It has been a busy week and that means I am going to just place my picks from the weekend Premier League games below.

Of course the focus for me is on the fixture at Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime when those lot from down the M62 come to town in what is a big month for Manchester United who have four consecutive home games to come.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: The biggest game in English Football remains Manchester United versus Liverpool and this Premier League weekend is opened up by the two most successful clubs clashing at lunchtime on Saturday.

However this is a match that may determine which team is going to finish behind Manchester City rather than for any silverware, although that won't lessen the desire of the players, managers and fans involved in the game.

Games between Manchester United and Liverpool have been tight affairs for the most part in recent seasons and this one looks like it may be another. The last 4 games between these teams have all ended in draws and I would not be surprised at all if that is the case again on Saturday.

Manchester United have been very good at home this season though and that advantage does give them the edge. On the other hand, Liverpool have been scoring plenty of away goals of late and the fact they have managed at least two goals in 10 in their last 11 away games in all competitions won't have been missed by Jose Mourinho.

Mourinho is perceived as being a 'negative' manager by the press and fans and that is especially the case when opposed by the likes of Jurgen Klopp. However I have found Klopp has made sure Liverpool are playing off a very solid base when coming up against Manchester United in recent matches and he has not been willing to take risks to open things up as we saw in the goalless draw at Anfield between these teams.

I can see both teams being very concerned with what the other is capable of doing when they go forward and so I have a feeling another tight game could develop.

Neither will want to give much away and I think both Mourinho and Klopp would likely take a draw right now and look to confirm their top four places against other teams in the weeks ahead.

I think Mourinho will want to limit the space behind his defence to ensure Liverpool are not going to get the likes of Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane in dangerous positions behind the full backs. Both teams will likely go with a three man midfield to control matters and then hope their special players can come up with something big to win the game.

Mourinho could be looking to use the pace of Alexis Sanchez, Romelu Lukaku and either Marcus Rashford or Jesse Lingard to spring Manchester United from defence to attack very quickly.

That could give Liverpool problems, although they have shown some better defensive performances of late and I think these teams might not have a lot between them by the end of 90 minutes. Goals have been an issue when these teams have met in recent matches and the last 6 have ended with two or fewer goals shared out.

At odds against I think that is worth backing in a fixture where a point could end up suiting all parties.


Everton v Brighton Pick: On recent form you would have to think that Brighton are coming in with a lot more confidence than Everton and they have actually moved above their hosts in the Premier League table thanks to results last weekend.

However I do think Everton are a much different prospect when they play in front of their own fans and they have won beaten Leicester City and Crystal Palace in their last couple of League games here. The squad is getting healthier and I do think Everton are better than they have shown away from home in losses to Watford and Burnley, especially the latter game in which they were the much better team in the first half.

It won't be easy against a Brighton team who have recently drawn at Newcastle United, Southampton and Stoke City to keep the points ticking over. Adding those results to the wins at home have seen Brighton fly up into the top half of the Premier League table and this is a club that looks like they have the momentum to avoid the drop.

Both teams could easily get on the scoreboard in this one, but I think home advantage could be the key for Everton.

There is also a feeling that Brighton may be a touch distracted by their big FA Cup Quarter Final against Manchester United next weekend, especially after putting 7 points between themselves and the bottom three. That could see players perhaps looking ahead to the next fixture and Everton have played much better at home so are capable of taking advantage.

I will back Everton on the Asian Handicap only because of the form of Brighton which has to be respected. That will ensure half the stake is returned in case of a draw, but I think Everton will have a little more motivation for this fixture and can earn the victory for a third straight win at Goodison Park in the Premier League.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: This is a huge relegation battle on Saturday afternoon from the North East as Southampton (17th place) make the long trip to Newcastle United (16th) in the Premier League.

Both teams are very much in the mix when it comes to the relegation battle and the one who can deal with the tension best is likely going to have the best chance to win this one.

The winning team will feel they have created a real buffer to the bottom three knowing both Crystal Palace and Stoke City have difficult fixtures to come, but the losing team will be right in trouble.

Neither Newcastle United or Southampton will feel they are in the worst form, but producing wins has been a challenge for both. The Saints are dangerous having found a way to score goals away from home in recent weeks, while Newcastle United will feel they can make it back to back wins at home having beaten Manchester United the last time they played at St James' Park.

There won't be much between the teams though and the draw is a big player in this one. However I am not convinced that will be 0-0 as both teams have scored in their last 3 home/away games respectively.

Both are unbeaten in that run of games, but neither Newcastle United or Southampton have looked that capable of putting a run of clean sheets together either. Picking both teams to score on Saturday looks the right option as it will cover any score draw, but also leaves things open for one of the teams to take a little more chance to secure a big win.

The last 5 League games between these teams at St James' Park have featured both teams scoring, while they have already played out a 2-2 draw this season. My lean goes towards Southampton if I had to pick a winner and that is mainly down to the amount of goals they have scored in recent away games.

However I am going to stick with backing both teams to hit at least one goal on Saturday in this big Premier League fixture.


West Brom v Leicester City Pick: Two out of form teams meet on Saturday afternoon at The Hawthorns and this may be the last chance saloon for West Brom if they have any hope of getting out of the bottom three.

They are facing a Leicester City team who have looked a little flat in their last few Premier League games as the players are perhaps keeping something in the tank for their FA Cup run. A big game is next up at home against Chelsea in the FA Cup Quarter Final and so it won't be a surprise if Leicester City are distracted even if they are also pushing for a top seven finish in the Premier League.

That should give West Brom a chance having created chances in recent matches, but who have not performed well enough in front of goal. The bigger issue has been the breakdown in defensive areas which have seen West Brom concede too many goals in their 6 game losing run in all competitions.

Confidence has to be shot for the home team which makes it hard to back them, even as the home underdog. The players don't believe in what Alan Pardew wants them to do, while the squad has not been as focused as they should be.

It is how it looks to the people outside of the club at least but West Brom can cause problems for Leicester City in this one if the away team is thinking ahead to the FA Cup Quarter Final next weekend. However Leicester City should have opportunities on the counter attack against a West Brom team who have to come forward and find the three points in this one and I can see both teams creating chances in this fixture.

The layers don't think there will be many goals, but the last 3 at The Hawthorns have produced at least three goals to be shared out. Add in the fact that 6 of the last 7 Leicester City away games have also hit that number and I think the odds against quote for at least three goals this weekend looks far too big.

With West Brom having to come forward, Leicester City should be able to exploit some spaces on the counter attack and I will back at least three goals to be scored in this one.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: You do have to do some reading between the lines when it comes to how the Chelsea versus Crystal Palace Premier League fixture is going to go this weekend.

Chelsea are off back to back Premier League losses to both Manchester clubs and also have the distraction of their Champions League Second Round Second Leg at Barcelona to come during the week.

On the other hand Crystal Palace have suffered back to back heartbreaking defeats with late goals costing them against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. The manner of the 2-3 loss to Manchester United on Monday night would have really hurt a squad that is stretched by injury, especially as Crystal Palace were leading 2-0 with a little over half an hour to go in that game.

That means we have to try and work out the confidence of the two teams heading into this live offering from Saturday afternoon.

My lean is clearly towards Chelsea though who have been much better at Stamford Bridge and who have had an extra day of rest compared with Crystal Palace. Antonio Conte also has more options at his disposal than Roy Hodgson and I think the latter is going to find it tough to pick up his players after the way they were beaten by Manchester United.

Wilfried Zaha's absence has hurt Crystal Palace too and I think they will find it tough to replicate their back to back 1-2 wins at Stamford Bridge.

I would expect Antonio Conte to get a real reaction from his Chelsea players after the poor performance at Manchester City and a more attacking system is likely to pay off for the home team. There is enough quality to hurt a Crystal Palace team struggling for numbers and one who have conceded 8 times in 3 away Premier League games which have resulted in heavy losses at Arsenal and Everton.

I believe Chelsea will have too much and give themselves a confidence boosting win ahead of the trip to Barcelona on Wednesday.


Arsenal v Watford Pick: The Premier League is beginning to get to that time of the season when teams start to achieve their goals and perhaps lose a bit of focus on matters on the field.

For a team like Arsenal it may mean shifting attention to the Europa League in the weeks ahead as winning that competition will be the best way for The Gunners to get back into the Champions League. Making up 13 points on Tottenham Hotspur with 9 games left to play looks very difficult despite a favourable fixture list and Arsenal's 0-2 win in Milan shows they can have an impact in the Europa League.

Motivation may be an issue in a few weeks for the Premier League games especially if Arsene Wenger makes changes to his starting eleven, but I don't believe the home team will be unmotivated here. They have performed well to take a 0-2 lead from the game in Italy on Thursday and don't think many of the players will have forgotten Troy Deeney's comments after Watford came from behind to beat Arsenal earlier this season.

Deeney openly stated Arsenal 'lacked cojones' in that defeat and I fully expect the Arsenal players to try and ram those taunts down his throat. The Watford striker is in good form having scored the winner against Everton and West Brom in each of the last two weeks, but Watford have been a different animal away from home over the last couple of months.

The Hornets have lost 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions and now head to the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal tend to play their best football. Arsenal were beaten 0-3 by Manchester City last time out here, but the 4 Premier League games they have failed to win at the Emirates Stadium have all come against teams currently above them in the League table.

Before the loss to Manchester City, Arsenal had scored at least twice in 4 straight League games at home, while they had crushed Everton and Crystal Palace in back to back games. I expect Javi Gracia to try and make Watford hard to beat and hit Arsenal on the counter, but Watford have not defended as well away from home and Arsenal have won 7 of their 10 home League games by two or more goals.

I will back The Gunners to try and build some momentum behind them and I think they can win this game by a couple of goals at least on Sunday.


Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: All eyes will be on Tottenham Hotspur to see how they respond to the big disappointment of exiting the Champions League in the Last 16 Round.

The exit would have hurt, but it would have been felt much deeper because of the manner of the loss to Juventus as Tottenham Hotspur looked the better team and seemed to have their guests where they wanted them at half time.

Ultimately it felt like Tottenham Hotspur's inexperience at the highest European level cost them and it is up to Mauricio Pochettino to pick his players up as they refocus on domestic matters. Pochettino has to remind the players how important this season could be with a potential FA Cup success to put alongside a top four finish in the Premier League.

Tottenham Hotspur are favourites to win at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday, but Bournemouth have been in fine form in recent weeks and are willing to give it a go in every match they play. They have been scoring for fun at home in the last few Premier League games and Bournemouth have had a week to prepare for this fixture which will give them a chance for the upset.

The home team will certainly feel they can score against a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not had too many clean sheets away from home in recent weeks. They did manage one at Crystal Palace a couple of weeks ago, but Spurs had not had one in their 5 previous away games and had been involved in 3 consecutive 2-2 draws.

With Bournemouth scoring at least twice in their last 5 home Premier League games, but also conceding, and Tottenham Hotspur scoring at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away games it is no surprise the layers have shortened the price for three or more goals to be shared out.

I can see both teams having their chances in this one as Bournemouth create chances against an opponent who may be a little down after their European run was ended. On the other hand I would expect Tottenham Hotspur to threaten a Bournemouth backline that haven't been producing too many clean sheets and backing this fixture to offer up four or more goals looks a big price.

That number has been reached in 2 of their 5 Premier League meetings in the since 2015 and I will look for that to be the outcome of this fixture on Sunday.


Stoke City v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League title is very much heading to Manchester City, but don't expect any let up from the League leaders who want to confirm the title as soon as they can.

That isn't the best news for relegation threatened Stoke City who have to host Manchester City on Monday night this week.

Paul Lambert has come in as manager of Stoke City and the performances of the side have improved although the results could have been better. With better finishing and a little more luck Stoke City would have had more points on the board than the draws with Brighton and Leicester City, but they have had to settle for draws in both games.

This is also the best team Stoke City would have played since Lambert took over and there is no doubting the size of the challenge in front of them. I imagine Paul Lambert will have spent the last seven days working on defensive shape to try and make Stoke City as hard to beat as possible and then steal something on the counter attack.

It is a good theory, but it is going to be very difficult for Stoke City to put that into practice against a Manchester City team who also have had the majority of their big names well rested for this fixture. They can be a little bit more erratic away from home, but Manchester City looked very good in dismissing Arsenal and I think they will be able to wear down this Stoke City team.

My feeling is that Manchester City will win by either two or three goal margins and backing them to do that returns an odds against quote. You can dutch those two margins for the odds against return and I think Manchester City will wear down Stoke City over the course of ninety minutes.

At some point the bigger concern for Paul Lambert will be the home game against Everton the following Saturday and I will back Manchester City to win by two or three goals.

MY PICKS: Manchester United-Liverpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
West Brom-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.60 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win by 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.22 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 9th)

It has been a mixed first couple of days for the Tennis Picks and would have been a lot better if I had seen a couple of players take the chances that had come their way.

The conditions in Indian Wells have to be factored into any Picks being made and I am looking to get this week back on track on Friday when the WTA Premier Event moves into the Second Round and the ATP Masters tournament concludes the First Round matches.


Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: There is a lot of potential in Yoshihito Nishioka, but injuries have curtailed some of the progress he was making on the Tour.

His return in 2018 has been mixed with some positive results at the Challenger level, but I still think there are some fitness concerns surrounding Nishioka. It also should be noted that his best results have come against players Ranked outside the top 200 and someone like Marcos Baghdatis is far superior to that level.

No one can ignore the fact that Baghdatis is not the same player he once was, while the Cypriot will sympathise with Nishioka having had a number of injury setbacks throughout his career.

However Baghdatis has played some decent tennis in 2018 and winning a couple of Qualifiers in Indian Wells to get into the main draw should give him a little more confidence. Baghdatis has been serving well and that has seen his return game improve too and I think he can get after Nishioka's serve in this First Round match.

I do have to respect how well Nishioka has been able to return throughout his career and that element of his game still looks to be in decent shape. The numbers show some difficulty for Nishioka when he has played the higher Ranked players on the Tour though and I think Baghdatis will work his way to a win and a cover in this one.


Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The main reason that Joao Sousa has not had more wins in 2018 is simply down to underperforming when it has come down to the big points. He isn't far away, but confidence could be an issue at the moment as Sousa searches for wins.

He has lost four matches in a row, but Sousa could have easily won all four of those matches if he had taken the chances that had come his way.

Sousa has maintained some decent numbers, but he will be looking to be more effective when the break point opportunities come his way. He will have to do that against Mikhail Youzhny who is not the player he once was, but who can still produce some very good tennis when he is feeling at his best.

I do wonder how Youzhny is feeling considering he withdrew from the Challenger event held in Indian Wells last week, while the return numbers have not been as strong as the Russian would have liked in 2018. Youzhny will cause some problems for Sousa if there is a lack of confidence in the way the latter plays the big points, but the numbers are pointing to the favourite to be too good in this one.

Sousa deservedly beat Youzhny on the clay courts last year, and the conditions should not be too much of a concern for him here. I will look for Sousa to outwork Youzhny in this First Round match and have enough to win and cover the games.


Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v Felix Auger Aliassime: Two Qualifiers and compatriots Vasek Pospisil and Felix Auger Aliassime meet in the First Round of the main draw at Indian Wells and it is the older player who is the favourite.

Both players did well to win a couple of Qualifiers and make their way through to the main draw, and I don't believe Auger Aliassime will be overawed playing Pospisil. He should be familiar with the game that he faces, although the ten year gap in age does mean Pospisil could have been one of the players Auger Aliassime looked up to as he was growing up.

That can play a part in the mental approach to a match, but the bigger issue for Auger Aliassime is he is coming up against an opponent who has been flying in 2018. The majority of the successes Pospisil has had have come on the Challenger circuit as he looks to rebuild after a couple of tough years, but an 18-3 record will also have given the veteran Canadian a lot of belief in his game.

Pospisil has won a couple of titles at the Challenger level and he has also reached the Semi Final in the Indian Wells Challenger last week. His serve has been a key for Pospisil, while his return game has been in good shape with the only criticism being that he is not as effective at converting break points as he would have liked.

I expect he is going to have the majority of the play in this one and Pospisil should be able to keep Auger Aliassime under some pressure. The return of Auger Aliassime should see him have some success, but his own serve has been a little erratic at the moment and I would expect Pospisil to have too much for him in this First Round match.

Both players could be better at converting the break points they have generated and it may come down to which of them is able to do that more effectively. However I think the Pospisil serve can get him out of a few more jams and I will back the veteran Canadian to get past his young compatriot and cover the games.


Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: 2018 has not begun in the way that Johanna Konta would have liked, but she is perhaps playing better than her results have suggested.

The loss to Bernarda Pera at the Australian Open was a disappointment for Konta, but otherwise she has been chugging along quite nicely and won the matches she is expected to. The defeat to Daria Kasatkina in Dubai would have hurt because Konta should have won that match, but her numbers remain decent and I think she can get the better of the talented Czech Marketa Vondrousova.

Vondrousova was a good winner in the First Round in Indian Wells and she has shown she is progressing by beating those players she is expected to. However the step up to the level that Konta is playing at has proved difficult with Vondrousova's return game perhaps not at the standard she would have liked.

I expect she will have some chances against the Konta serve which has not been as strong as I would have expected, even when playing those players outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings. However Konta is able to look after the second serve quite effectively in those matches and I think that is going to be the key in helping her get past a tough opponent.

Konta has to make sure her return is taking advantage of the second serve of Vondrousova in this one, but I do think she is capable of doing that in a win on Friday.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: This is the second year in a row that these two players are meeting at Indian Wells and Irina-Camelia Begu did ride her luck in a narrow loss to Karolina Pliskova. On another day Pliskova would have won very comfortably and I am looking for Friday 9th March 2018 to be another day.

I have enough faith in Pliskova's serve to at least keep Begu under pressure especially as the latter has struggled when she has moved up to face the best players on the Tour. Her return numbers against top 50 Ranked players is not really up to the standard needed to win those matches and it is going to be more difficult if Pliskova is up to par in this one.

The key to the cover of this amount of games will be how well Begu serves as she is a very capable player on that side of the court herself. Those numbers haven't slipped at all when playing the best players on the Tour and Pliskova can be criticised at times when analysing her returning numbers.

However I do think Pliskova matches up well with Begu who has not served as well as she would have liked in the last couple of tournaments played. Pliskova's return numbers have been impressive when facing players Ranked outside the top 20 in 2018 and I do think she will have the time to try and get into a strong position on the courts of Indian Wells.

There are times when Pliskova can be way short of the level expected of her, but I think she will have enough break points in this one to have a chance to cover. I will look for better efficiency than when these two met here last year and I think Pliskova can cover in a win.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johnna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 7-9, - 5.30 Units (32 Units Staked, - 16.56% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 8th)

Time has been against me today to write up full analysis of the Tennis Picks from the Indian Wells First Round as the WTA Premier Event concludes that Round and the ATP Masters tournament gets underway with main draw action.

The opening day was a mixed bag for the picks with two wins and three failing to get over the line, but Thursday is the day this tournament really gets underway as far as I am concerned as both events are into the main draw.


MY PICKS: Aliaksandra Sasnovich - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marius Copil - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.48 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24.80% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 7th)

Don't think for one second that I have forgotten what happened twelve months ago at Indian Wells.

I couldn't get anything right from the Indian Wells Masters tournament in 2017 and had some horrendous luck which destroyed both my confidence and the season totals to that point.

Fast forward twelve months and the 2018 season has begun in a very positive manner thanks to three solid weeks coming into this event.

This season I know I won't be making picks throughout the next month with the back to back Masters events in the United States, but that is mainly because I am having a short break in the middle of this period where I won't be focusing on researching picks and instead will be enjoying a break.

It all means I will have picks from Indian Wells up until next Wednesday and I may have picks at the end of the Miami Masters before we head into the clay court season and start the build towards the French Open.


Petra Martic - 4.5 games v Tatjana Maria: The First Round of the WTA Indian Wells event begins on Wednesday and the ATP Indian Wells event begins on Thursday.

There are plenty of matches to get through on Wednesday as half of the First Round is put into the books. The majority of the top players are not in action until Friday having received a bye in the First Round and so some of the matches are pretty tight to call.

Asking for consistency from those players lower down the WTA Ranking list is not easy, and this is a big number for Petra Martic who has won a number of close matches. However Martic looks capable of having a rare 'easy' win against an opponent in Tatjana Maria who has lost all seven matches played in 2018 and looked pretty terrible in doing so.

Maria has some really poor numbers in those defeats and while I think there is definite room for improvement, I do wonder if the confidence is at such a low ebb that perhaps a return to the clay courts will be the only way to get things turned around.

It is a big number and Martic has not played a lot of tennis since the Australian Open. She should still be good enough to get enough out of her serve to put the pressure on Maria and lead to another big defeat for Maria which has become the norm for her in 2018.


Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 games v Karumi Nara: The long road back from injury is continuing on a positive path for Kaia Kanepi who has begun 2018 in very strong form after a brilliant run at the US Open back in September.

The numbers have been very impressive as far as Kanepi is concerned and the only doubt about her ability to win this match may be that she has not played since the Australian Open when she reached the Fourth Round.

On the other hand Nara reached the Final of an ITF event in February and has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Indian Wells. She also played in an ITF event here last week which means Nara is very comfortable in the conditions and she has perhaps played a little better than the results have indicated.

That could make Nara dangerous, but Kanepi was producing some very strong numbers in the first couple of tournaments she has played this season. The serve is a dangerous weapon while Kanepi should be able to get plenty of pop off the return against a vulnerable serve that Nara brings to the court.

There will be times when Nara is able to use her defensive skills to extract some mistakes from Kanepi, but ultimately I am expecting the Estonian to be too strong and cover this number of games. I expected the layers to ask for at least one more game for Kanepi to cover and I like the veteran in this one.


Donna Vekic - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: At this moment in her career, the closest Donna Vekic looks like getting to picking up a Grand Slam trophy will be if Stan Wawrinka can add another to his collection. Finding the consistency on the Tour has been a problem for Vekic, but she is still only 21 years old and has plenty of experience to fall back upon.

I do think she is going to be good enough to get the better of Maria Sakkari in this First Round match where the layers have struggled to separate the players.

Neither player has been in great form but I do give the edge to Vekic who has played her matches on the full Tour while Sakkari is just 1-5 in main draw matches at the highest level. The numbers don't make great reading for Sakkari either with a serve that can be attacked and her return stats not quite up to the level that Vekic has been able to produce.

They did meet twice in 2017 with a win apiece and Sakkari was the one who was victorious in their sole match on the hard courts. However she was perhaps a little fortunate on the day and Vekic is doing enough behind serve and return to get the better of her this time around.

I imagine we will see a number of breaks of serve, but I will look for Vekic to just have the edge at the most important times and she can win and cover the games.


Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 games v Madison Brengle: There is a lot to like about Marketa Vondrousova and this is a player that could be at the forefront of women's tennis in the years ahead.

However inconsistent results have to be expected in a young career and I think that is the main reason Vondrousova is not a stronger favourite to see off Qualifier Madison Brengle.

The latter will receive the support from the American crowd and can be a frustrating player to break down when she is at her very best defensively. Even when she isn't, Brengle is willing to stay a few feet behind the baseline and look for opponents to get a little flustered having to play one extra ball to win points.

That could easily be the case if Vondrousova is not at her best on Wednesday, but Brengle's numbers have been pretty awful in 2018 especially when playing in the main draw of the top tournaments.

Vondrousova has perhaps not returned as well as she would have liked, but she will get plenty of time against the Brengle delivery. That may give her the confidence to get enough first serves in play to at least save a few more break points than her American opponent and I think the Czech player will be able to work to a winning position in this match.

The stronger numbers that Vondrousova has produced in 2018 has me leaning towards her to win the First Round match in this one.


Maria Sharapova - 2.5 games v Naomi Osaka: This is going to be a big hitting First Round match and the key for both Maria Sharapova and Naomi Osaka is making sure they get enough first serves in.

The player who is able to do that the best is going to win this match with the second serves vulnerable to the kind of aggressive returning both Sharapova and Osaka will bring to the table.

A few weeks ago Sharapova would likely have been a stronger favourite, but Osaka played well in the Middle East in back to back tournaments which would have given her confidence. However this does feel another step up for the youngster who has plenty of talent, but has struggled to find the consistency she would have liked to really move up the World Rankings.

Sharapova has not been as dominant as some thought she may be since she returned from a ban though. The numbers have still been decent enough from Sharapova, but she is clearly not the same player she once was and the layers are not convinced about her.

It is those decent numbers which makes me keen to back her in this First Round match. As much as I like the way Osaka is developing as a player, and I do expect her to make a move in the World Rankings, this is a tough match mentally. Osaka hasn't had a lot of really big wins in her young career and I can see Sharapova's presence helping make a difference for the veteran in a tough match, but one where I think the Russian can move past Osaka with a cover of this number of games.

MY PICKS: Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 19.20 Units (344 Units Staked, + 5.58% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (March 6-8)

The Champions League Quarter Final line up will begin to take shape by the end of Wednesday evening with half of the last eight teams confirming their places in the next Round of the competition.

This week is also an important one in the Europa League with the Last 16 First Legs due to be played on Thursday.

The focus on Tuesday will likely be on the big game in Paris where PSG take on Real Madrid, before Juventus head to Wembley Stadium to take on a Tottenham Hotspur team who have the narrow advantage from the First Leg of their Second Round tie.


Liverpool v Porto Pick: The Champions League saw Paris Saint-Germain blow a huge Second Round lead in their defeat to Barcelona twelve months ago, but I would argue that Porto overturning their 0-5 home loss to Liverpool from the First Leg would be an even bigger upset.

Let’s cut to the chase- that isn’t happening.

However the Second Leg may give Porto a chance to at least redeem themselves with a much better performance as they could be facing a heavily rotated Liverpool team. Jurgen Klopp has not always done that, but Liverpool are virtually through to the Quarter Final and have a huge game at Manchester United on Saturday so risking key players would be a surprise.

There will be some talent available to Liverpool who are on the fringes of the first team, while Klopp may use some of the more consistent starters to keep momentum going.

Even then it should give Porto a chance to show they are better than they were in the First Leg when they began decent enough before falling it apart.

Porto have scored in their 3 away Group games in the Champions League and they will feel they can play a part.

They will likely be better defensively than they were in the First Leg, but Liverpool are very strong at home and have been scoring for fun in recent games at Anfield. Even a changed Liverpool team should be able to cause problems for Porto and goals were not in short supply in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 ties played last month.

This Second Leg could follow suit with both teams likely to try and play some attacking football so looking for four or more goals is the pick. Porto should be better going forward against a Liverpool team giving some players a chance to shine, while the home team will try and play with the same style that has produced plenty of goals this season.

If the first choice three forwards sit out the number of goals could be a problem, but Porto looked vulnerable at the back in the First Leg and having their own chances should help these teams hit four or more goals combined.


Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid Pick: The First Leg between these two European giants was a fascinating game with very little between them.

In fact I think the 3-1 First Leg lead for Real Madrid flattered the European Champions and I was convinced Paris Saint-Germain would still be able to turn things around and redeem themselves for the manner of their Last 16 loss to Barcelona twelve months ago.

Was is the most important word in that sentence though.

Since the First Leg Neymar has been lost to an injury for the home team and I do wonder if that is going to be critical to the outcome of this tie. No one will suggest Paris Saint-Germain don’t still have the attacking talent to overturn this deficit if they produce the same performance they did in the Spanish capital, but the loss of Neymar has tuned down my enthusiasm for PSG to turn the Last 16 tie around.

I would expect Paris Saint-Germain to put Real Madrid under pressure in front of their own fans having won 4 straight Champions League ties at home. All of those wins came with PSG scoring three or more goals including the thumping of Barcelona 4-0 last season, so Real Madrid have to be careful.

However I do think Real Madrid can also have success when they get forward with Cristiano Ronaldo in fine form in recent weeks. They had been scoring plenty on their travels prior to the 1-0 defeat to Espanyol last week, but Real Madrid have to be wary of their 3-1 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League Group Stage.

I backed four or more goals in the First Leg and the feeling is that we are going to see something like that again. Both Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid have the attacking quality to expose defensive vulnerabilities both teams have displayed.

I still have a sneaky feeling PSG will get through, but the absence of Neymar means I will just focus on the attackers to get the best of the defenders and providing goals for the neutrals to enjoy. Extra time being needed won’t surprise me either, but I will go back to the market that was successful in the First Leg and back at least four goals to be scored in the French capital on Tuesday.


Tottenham Hotspur v Juventus Pick: There were a fair number of Tottenham Hotspur fans you would have heard on the radio or read about on social media who are convinced the 2-2 draw in Turin is going to be enough to see their team through to the Quarter Final of the Champions League.

However I think it is too easy to put a line through a Juventus team who have some key players back for the Second Leg.

In saying that, I do think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to win but this is going to be a tense night in North West London and I fully expect Juventus to play their part. The problem is that they have to either win the game or score at least two goals in a draw to have a chance to progress to the Quarter Final and I think that is a tough task at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur have been looking more and more comfortable in each passing week of the season.

The likes of Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Arsenal have all been beaten by Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium this season. All of those teams were outplayed by Spurs and there is enough talent in this Tottenham Hotspur team to wrap up this Last 16 tie with a win.

I have to respect the fact that Juventus will be a lot better in the Second Leg with Blaise Matuidi and Pablo Dybala back in the starting line up. The loss of Gonzalo Higuain would be a blow considering the Argentinian scored twice in the First Leg, but my bigger fear for Juventus is whether they can match the energy of their hosts with an ageing defence.

Back in Italy Juventus have remained very strong, but Barcelona hammered them in the Champions League and Tottenham Hotspur looked like they could have too much energy and quality for them. I wouldn't be surprised if there are three or more goals scored in this one with all of the Tottenham Hotspur Group games in the Champions League this season featuring that many goals and Juventus likely to have to open up at some point.

I also think Tottenham Hotspur will just have a little too much for a quality Juventus team who are perhaps not as strong defensively as they were a season ago. At some point Juventus will have to come out and I expect that will aid Tottenham Hotspur who have players to punish them and I like the English club to move through to the Quarter Final of the Champions League.

Juventus have continued to look strong defensively back in Italy, but Tottenham Hotspur carved them open a number of times in Turin and looked the better team. I can see the home team doing that again in this one and working their way to the victory and will back them to do that.


Manchester City v Basel Pick: Barring something quite outrageous occurring, Manchester City and Liverpool are two English clubs who will be in the Quarter Final draw for the Champions League a week on Friday.

Both teams should confirm their places at the end of this week's Champions League Last 16 Second Leg ties to be played and the layers are expecting Manchester City to crush Basel for a second time.

If there was the feeling that Pep Guardiola will pick his strongest eleven then that could happen, but instead it has to be expected that there will be wholesale changes to his team. That may mean Manchester City are not as clinical as they were in Switzerland where they beat Basel 0-4 and a changed team will also mean Basel can at least look to show they are better than how they performed in the home Leg.

However Basel have been in terrible form coming out of the Winter Break in Switzerland having lost 4 of their 5 games in all competitions and failing to score in any of those. The confidence has to be short going into a tough Second Leg and Basel may look to just produce a damage limitation exercise.

Changes could be made by Basel in a bid to keep players fresh for the domestic matters coming up and I think Manchester City will win this one.

Whether they win by enough goals to cover the handicap is a tougher question to answer, but the Basel lack of goals in recent games helps lead me to my pick.

Manchester City have beaten both Shakhtar Donetsk and Feyenoord at home in the Champions League without conceding and they have 4 clean sheets in 5 games in all competitions. With Basel's recent struggles in front of goal, even a changed backline for Manchester City should be able to cope with the Basel attacks and I would expect them to win this one with a clean sheet.


AC Milan v Arsenal Pick: A few years ago this would have been a big Champions League tie, but both AC Milan and Arsenal are going through some lean times.

At least AC Milan come in with some confidence having made some big investments in the summer and bringing in Gennaro Gattuso during the course of the season to oversee what had been an underachieving team. Since their former midfield enforcer has become manager, AC Milan have been in fine form though and they have been winning games behind strong defensive efforts.

You have to think that will be the game plan for Gattuso in this First Leg as he will look to make sure AC Milan don't give away too much and put Arsenal under some pressure.

After 4 losses in a row in all competitions culminating in the 2-1 defeat at Brighton on Sunday, Arsenal's confidence has to be in a really poor place though. That may encourage Milan to try and get forward and expose the vulnerabilities that Arsenal have shown in recent weeks, especially away from home where they have lost 4 of their last 5 in all competitions.

However I don't think Gattuso will overplay his hand and allow the talented Arsenal attacking players to expose spaces left behind. Keeping a clean sheet has to be the focus for the home team and I think this may be a tight game which does not feature a lot of goals.

AC Milan have kept 6 clean sheets in a row in all competitions, while they have also only conceded a single goal in their last 6 at the San Siro. Having Danny Welbeck leading the line for Arsenal should mean Milan feel comfortable in trying to contain their visitors, although I will say again that I don't think Milan will go gung-ho for the win either.

The home team have won 5 of 6 home games in the Europa League and I can understand why they have their backers with the form Arsenal are in. Confidence is a real problem for Arsenal at the moment, but I think Milan will make this a tighter fixture with limited chances and I will look for two or fewer goals to be produced in the First Leg which should mean the Second Leg is left in the balance.


Atletico Madrid v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: It would be a real surprise if Atletico Madrid are not able to make it past Russian leaders Lokomotiv Moscow in this Last 16 tie in the Europa League.

You have to respect any team from Russia who are playing with the confidence Lokomotiv Moscow are, but this is another step up in terms of quality for them to face. They should be better prepared than they were in their Last 32 tie against Nice now Lokomotiv Moscow have had 3 games under their belt since the Winter Break, but falling 2-0 behind to Atletico Madrid would be a much bigger mountain to climb than it was against Nice.

Atletico Madrid do need to bounce back from their 1-0 defeat at Barcelona on Sunday which has left them 8 points behind the Spanish League leaders. However this is a team in fine form in recent weeks having won 8 in a row prior to that defeat and Atletico Madrid have been strong at home where they have won 5 in a row in all competitions without conceding a goal.

I imagine Lokomotiv Moscow will look to frustrate their hosts and earn a result that will put them in a good place for the Second Leg next week in the Russian capital. That won't be easy with the quality Atletico Madrid have in forward areas and I think they are going to grind out a lead to take to Russia next week.

Atletico Madrid have scored 11 goals in their last 5 home games in all competitions and beat Roma and Copenhagen at home in European competitions without conceding a goal in their last couple here. The home team are a short price to win this one with a clean sheet, but I think Atletico Madrid are not only capable of doing that, but they can beat Lokomotiv Moscow by at least two goals on the day.

Lokomotiv Moscow have only lost 1 of their last 9 away Europa League games, but that was a 2-0 defeat at Fenerbahce last season in the Last 32. They were also 2-0 down at Nice and I will back Atletico Madrid to cover the Asian Handicap.


Borussia Dortmund v Salzburg Pick: This has been a tough season for Borussia Dortmund but they look to have drawn a good tie to move through to the Europa League Quarter Final.

The home Leg is going to be very important to the Bundesliga club and they have to have full respect for a Salzburg team who have scored plenty of goals in this competition.

Not many would have picked Salzburg to get past Real Sociedad, while Borussia Dortmund were more than a little fortunate to beat Atalanta in the Last 32 tie. That has left plenty of room for improvement for Dortmund, but I would still be surprised if they are not able to produce a First Leg lead.

Goals haven't been a problem for Borussia Dortmund, but they concede plenty too so backing the home team to win a game featuring three or more goals is the call.


Marseille v Athletic Bilbao Pick: Neither Marseille nor Athletic Bilbao are in great form coming into this Europa League Last 16 tie which looks hard to call on paper. Both will recognise the importance of this competition to their season, but picking a winner over the two Legs looks really tough.

Home form in both Legs will be very important and the onus is on Marseille to try and earn some kind of lead to take across to Bilbao next week. Marseille's recent form doesn't offer much enthusiasm for them, but generally Marseille have been very strong at home where they are unbeaten in 16 games in all competitions and have won 11 of those.

Marseille have also won 5 of their 6 European home ties this season so they have to feel they can turn around recent form where the majority of the poorer results have come on their travels.

Athletic Bilbao losing 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions has helped the layers decide that Marseille should be the favourites for this First Leg, but they still look short at odds on. That is mainly because Athletic Bilbao have seemingly reserved their best football for the Europa League this season and any team who have scored at least twice in 4 of their 5 away European games have to be respected.

They may be able to play their part and I think Marseille will be looking to get forward to produce a dominant position for the Second Leg.

Together that could see these teams combine for at least three goals especially as Athletic Bilbao have been scoring and conceding goals for fun for much of the season. Marseille have been a little inconsistent but they are good enough to find a winner in this one and I can see both teams score in the contest.

Backing three or more goals to be scored looks a big price here.


Leipzig v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: You have to credit Leipzig for working their way through to the Last 16 of the Europa League in their maiden season in any European competition but they haven't looked all that convincing doing it.

They finished third in a weak Champions League Group and only just beat Napoli in the Last 32 of the Europa League despite winning the First Leg 1-3 in Italy. With a big battle in Germany for the top four places developing, Leipzig are perhaps a little thin in the squad to deal with both domestic and European matters.

However they are facing a Zenit St Petersburg team who have similar issues to deal with the rest of the season.

Zenit St Petersburg are in for a battle to finish in the top three and the Champions League places in Russia, but like Leipzig they are still hoping the Europa League could produce another avenue back into the premier European competition.

Both teams should look at the other as a team they should be getting past and that could make this a very good tie. The failure of Zenit St Petersburg to score in either of their last couple of away games is a concern, but Leipzig have both scored and conceded goals for fun in European competition this season.

Much of that may be down to the inexperience for the players and the manager at this level and I can see this First Leg producing a few goals. Leipzig home games in European Football have seen plenty of goals scored and Zenit St Petersburg did score at east twice in half of their 6 away games in the Europa League this season.

At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a decent shout.


Sporting Lisbon v Viktoria Plzen Pick: Both Sporting Lisbon and Viktoria Plzen are likely to have looked at this Last 16 draw and been very happy with who they have been paired with. In an open draw with some huge names involved, both teams here should feel this is a tie that could lead them to the Quarter Final of a major European competition.

The edge has to be given to Sporting Lisbon who have a stronger European pedigree than Viktoria Plzen who have surprised many by reaching this Round of the Europa League.

Sporting Lisbon have only won 1 of their 5 home European games this season which is a surprise, but they have scored three times in their last couple here. In the Last 32 you could blame complacency for Sporting Lisbon blowing a 3-1 home lead against Astana as they were 6-2 up on aggregate at that point with ten minutes left to play.

There is also no doubt that Viktoria Plzen are not as strong away from home as they are in front of their own fans. Defeats in Steaua Bucharest and Lugano have come in the Europa League Group Stage and on both occasions Viktoria Plzen conceded three times so I do like Sporting Lisbon's chances of gaining a significant advantage heading to the Czech Republic for the Second Leg next week.

As long as Sporting Lisbon don't slip up like they did in the last Round, I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this First Leg and be in a strong position for a Quarter Final berth at the end of Thursday evening.

MY PICKS: Liverpool-Porto Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
AC Milan-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marseille-Athletic Bilbao Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Zenit St Petersburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sporting Lisbon - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet Victor (2 Units)