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Sunday, 2 June 2024

French Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2024 (Sunday 2nd June)

The French Open has been hurt by the rain in the first week, but we should have better weather now we move into the business end of the tournament.

Fourth Round action gets underway on the second Sunday at the tournament.


Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: It has been a relatively comfortable week for Coco Gauff who has previously played well on the clay courts. The big test for the American will still likely come from Iga Swiatek in the same half of the draw, but Coco Gauff cannot afford to look too far ahead.

She has twice been a Quarter Finalist in Paris and also reached the Final here so there is no doubt that Coco Gauff is going to be confident.

Things are a lot different for Elisabetta Cocciaretto who has never been beyond the Third Round at any Grand Slam before winning three matches here. She did reach the Third Round at Roland Garros twelve months ago and, like many of her compatriots, Elisabetta Cocciaretto is very comfortable on the clay courts.

Two losses to Coco Gauff might give the higher Seed a mental edge, but Cocciaretto will point out that both of those were on the hard courts which would favour the American.

Results on the clay courts prior to the French Open had been pretty mixed for Elisabetta Cocciaretto and so it will be interesting to see how she deals with this kind of occasion. You should not dismiss the form shown to win three matches at a Grand Slam and winning six straight sets, including beating two Seeds, but this is another level of opponent.

One set is expected to be competitive, but Coco Gauff may be able to roll through the gears in another and that should set her up for a relatively comfortable win. Serving well will be key for Gauff, but she has played well enough through the first week to believe in her tennis as she pushes towards another match up with Iga Swiatek on the red dirt.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 11-4, + 9.34 Units (30 Units Staked, + 31.13% Yield)

Saturday, 1 June 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Queensberry vs Matchroom, Five vs Five (Saturday 1st June)


Five vs Five, Queensberry vs Matchroom

The Saudi money has been rolling into Boxing and these two companies are the biggest beneficiaries so far.

With that in mind, the Saudi officials called for a Frank vs Eddie card to back up the expected main event featuring Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol.

Unfortunately another injury suffered by Beterbiev has pushed that Undisputed fight back to later this year, although Bivol will remain on the card. However, that means the Queensberry vs Matchroom bouts are now the headliners and you have to be pleased with the fights we have.

Dmitry Bivol should be a comfortable winner in his bout, but the focus will be on those promotional fights with the winning team picking up a three million dollar bonus.

First up is Willy Hutchinson vs Craig Richards and there has been plenty of needle between the fighters this week.

This is a big step for Willy Hutchinson who has been Stopped dramatically once before, but bounced back in his move back up to Light Heavyweight. However, he has not taken on anyone of the calibre of Craig Richards, who has only come up short against Dmitry Bivol and Joshua Buatsi in recent times having given both plenty to think about.

It is a level that deservedly makes him a favourite, although Richards has been relatively inactive in recent times.

He did return with a Stoppage of Boris Crighton in February and I do think Craig Richards can weather an early storm and potentially finish off Willy Hutchinson late on. Spider has more power than his Stoppage rate would suggest and Hutchinson has yet to show he can step up to this level so another for Craig Richards and adding two points to the Matchroom slate looks the likely outcome.


One of the best looking fights on the card is between Nick Ball and Raymond Ford and it should really be a Unification at Featherweight.

Nick Ball will feel he did enough to beat Rey Vargas in March, while Ford was coming from behind for a late Stoppage win to earn a title of his own.

It is a short turnaround for both, which could be a factor, but this has the makings of a quality contest with the styles likely to gel very well.

My gut feeling is that Nick Ball might be able to drag Raymond Ford into a fight and that could see him edge this one, but the American showed his own grit and character in the win over Otabek Kholmatov.

This is a bout that I am very much looking forward to.


Next up is Queensberry Captain Hamzah Sheeraz with double points on the line for the British Middleweight contender.

As with many of the Saudi cards, Sheeraz is in a tough fight against unbeaten Austin Ammo Williams and both fighters have shown a supreme amount of confidence about their chances of winning. The victorious party will be heading into a likely World Title bout next in one of the most open Middleweight Divisions we have seen in a long time.

There is absolutely no doubt that both fighters are taking a step up against one another and with similar resumes behind them.

Confidence is not lacking, but the Hamzah Sheeraz size and power could be the telling factor.

He is a very good boxer who will use the jab to set things up and the feeling is that Sheeraz will keep that ramrod of a shot going to end up timing Ammo Williams onto something big.

The American will be slick and look to counter and poses a real threat, but Sheeraz has looked really strong at the weight and he can come through with an impressive win.


Daniel Dubois vs Filip Hrgovic does not have the full IBF World Title on the line as expected, but they have been given an Interim Belt which may be upgraded before we get to September 21st when the winner of this one is expected to headline against Anthony Joshua at Wembley Stadium.

At 26 years old, Daniel Dubois has time on his side, but a third loss would hurt.

He is facing an unbeaten, confident Filip Hrgovic who has taken a lot out of sparring beatdowns he used to give a much younger Dubois. The Croatian also feels that Daniel Dubois has shown too much 'quit' and that he will wear him down and break him down mentally and physically.

However, Filip Hrgovic has not really impressed in recent bouts and the win over Mark De Mori means absolutely little in all honesty.

Prior to that he could have lost against Zhilei Zhang and the Points win over Demsey McKean is not going to have impressed too many.

So there is some pressure on El Animal at 31 years old to show that he is ready to move to the next level.

It brings some intrigue, but the feeling is that Filip Hrgovic's ability to take a big shot may prove to be a difference maker.

Riding out what is likely to be an early Daniel Dubois storm, Hrgovic may feel he can get on top of this one and wear down the British fighter when things begin to feel like they are getting away from him. Beating down Jarrell Miller for a late Stoppage will help the Daniel Dubois confidence, but Filip Hrgovic is a different animal, pardon the pun, and may just close the show before the judges scorecards are needed.


The final fight on this card is a crossroads bout in the Heavyweight Division and may end up deciding which of the promotional companies come out on top.

Deontay Wilder is not only the surprise name lining up behind Eddie Hearn, but has been selected as Captain by Matchroom which means double points if he can come out of this one with his hand raised.

The former WBC World Champion looked very different in a comfortable loss to Joseph Parker back in December and admitted he was tentative in letting his hands go. Some believed Wilder had become softer, but the American is adamant he has rediscovered himself as he looks to potentially move into another big fight with Jared Anderson in August.

He is opposed by another of Joseph Parker's recent victims in the form of Zhilei Zhang who managed to show a bit more than Wilder in that defeat. He put Parker down twice, but the near 300 pounder ran out of gas and was beaten on the cards with his lack of activity in the fight proving to be costly.

There is no doubt that Zhang hits plenty hard, but Deontay Wilder has shown an ability to absorb big shots and much will depend on how much he has left in his own tank when it comes to willingness to detonate his right hand.

Big Bang is certainly capable of taking a shot, but you do have to wonder if he will have the same resistance throughout this fight.

We have seen Deontay Wilder carry his power into the late Rounds and it may be as much to do with fatigue as the actual shot that puts Zhang away in this one.

After his last performance, it may be hard to believe in Wilder, but he may just have found something to get back on the horse and looks a big price to stop Zhilei Zhang and push him to the back of a pretty long queue.

MY PICKS: Craig Richards to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Hamzah Sheeraz to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Filip Hrgovic to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Deontay Wilder to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 22-35, + 15.17 Units (80 Units Staked, + 18.96% Yield)

Thursday, 30 May 2024

French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2024 (Friday 31st May)

There has been plenty of criticism of the fans at Roland Garros this year, but it was still a surprise to see the organisers choose to restrict alcohol being taken onto the stands.

Whether this makes a difference will be seen in the coming days with so many players complaining about the noise- seriously, this feels a little pathetic to me, but you cannot blame the organisers for wanting to make things a bit more comfortable for those on the court.

Rain has been the bigger issue at the event and Day 6 of the tournament has been given an earlier start time with the feeling that some Second Round matches will yet to be completed. The weather looks better as we close in on the second week at Roland Garros so hopefully all will be back on schedule by Friday evening.


Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Matteo Arnaldi: A chance to reach the second week of a Grand Slam will underline the continued progress being made by Matteo Arnaldi who is playing at a career high World Ranking mark. The Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts, although it has perhaps not been as strong a season on the surface as he would have liked.

Two wins in Paris will make him feel better all around about where his tennis stands and Matteo Arnaldi has shown he can handle some pressure by beating two Frenchmen at the French Open.

The first of those wins was also against a Seeded player and Matteo Arnaldi will have to use that win to give him some confidence heading into this Third Round match. He will need all of the help he needs when taking on Andrey Rublev who has quietly been going about his business at the French Open again.

He looks to be in the half of the draw where Andrey Rublev could finally move beyond the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam and this is a player who has long been able to beat those he is expected to, while coming up short against some of the elite players on the Tour.

As mentioned earlier this week, Andrey Rublev has not had the best results on the clay courts, but the numbers have remained strong. He showed that in his win over Pedro Martinez in the last Round and Rublev is certainly capable of getting the better of Matteo Arnaldi, even on the favoured surface for the latter.

Their sole previous match ended in a routine win for Andrey Rublev, although that was on the hard courts, and he can certainly do enough to make this a relatively comfortable day in the office too.


Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: She had to Qualify for the Australian Open in January, but a stunning run has pushed Dayana Yastremska into the top 32 of the World Rankings and that means direct entry into the remaining Grand Slams of the 2024 season.

Despite a relatively poor clay court season, Dayana Yastremska has made her way through to the Third Round at the French Open and she dominated her last opponent. Things were tougher in the First Round when the Ukrainian had to come from a set behind to beat Alja Tomljanovic, and this is a considerable step upwards in terms of quality of opponent.

A place on the show courts will be next up for Yastremska when she faces Coco Gauff, who had a tougher than expected Second Round win.

However, a win is a win and the American is very comfortable on the clay courts with each of her last two French Open runs ended at the hands of Iga Swiatek. The World Number 1 was in the way again when Coco Gauff was beaten in the Rome Semi Final and it is very likely that the young American is going to have to find a way to get past her in this tournament.

For now the focus has to be on continuing to win matches as the US Open Champion looks to add another Grand Slam to her collection.

Outside of matches against Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff has continued to display her clay court qualities and the expectation is that she can do the same in this Third Round match.

When she met Dayana Yastremska in Madrid, Coco Gauff was a comfortable winner having gotten through a tough opening set and something similar is expected to happen here. The Ukrainian has also been well beaten by Aryna Sabalenka this season on this surface and it does feel that Yastremska is still way behind the elite players on the clay, a category that Coco Gauff belongs to.

It may not be quite as wide as the win in Madrid, but Coco Gauff can still make it wide enough to cover this mark on her way into the second week of the tournament.


Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 games v Chloe Paquet: When these two players last met on the Tour, both Chloe Paquet and Marketa Vondrousova were Ranked way outside the top 200 and winning Grand Slam matches, never mind titles, would have felt a long way away.

Out of the two players, it is Marketa Vondrousova who has really grown into one of the better players on the Tour and she is a big favourite in this Third Round match.

The crowds have been able to get involved in matches and rattle players and that may be the biggest challenge for Vondrousova with the home fans likely to be very much behind Chloe Paquet. However, decisions have been made by the organisers to limit the kind of interactions we have been seeing and that should only benefit Vondrousova in her bid to reach the second week at the French Open again.

She has the qualities to beat Chloe Paquet, although the Frenchwoman should be respected for battling through her Second Round match. Two tie-breakers were needed against Katerina Siniakova after dropping the first set, but it has to be a question of how much Paquet left on the court in order to overcome that opponent.

Beating a Seed will give her belief, while Chloe Paquet was a dominant First Round winner.

There is also the factor that Marketa Vondrousova had to come from behind to win her own Second Round match, although it was a less taxing win all in all and that should help the Czech player.

Covering this kind of number is never easy for someone like Vondrousova, but she did that for us in the First Round and the feeling is that she will be able to weather an early storm before taking control of the match. Handling the emotion of the occasion might be challenging, but Marketa Vondrousova won the Wimbledon title against a crowd favourite last year and that kind of quality can help her past Chloe Paquet into the second week on Friday.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 9-3, + 8.20 Units (24 Units Staked, + 34.17% Yield)

Wednesday, 29 May 2024

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2024 (Thursday 30th May)

It has been an incredibly wet day in Paris and more bad weather is to come on Day 5 at the tournament, which really could play havoc on the schedule.

The organisers will be hoping for wider pockets of clear weather to try and get as many of the Second Round matches through, especially with the Third Round scheduled to begin on Friday.


Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Miomir Kecmanovic: He has not always had much love for the clay or the grass courts, but Daniil Medvedev has shown he has the grit and determination to produce big results at the French Open and Wimbledon.

Last year was a disappointment considering he had won the big title in Rome, but Medvedev is back in Paris and will be hoping to fly under the radar early on with the focus on Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

It took four sets to get past Dominik Koepfer in the First Round, but it is a solid win for Daniil Medvedev who had a relatively unspectacular build up to the second Grand Slam of the season.

Next up is Miomir Kecmanovic, who is very capable of upsetting the very best players on the Tour when he is able to put his tennis together. Finding that consistency has been tougher and perhaps the main reason this player from Serbia has not been able to crack the top 20 of the World Rankings like others from his nation in recent years.

The clay court season was pretty disappointing as far as Kecmanovic is concerned, but a solid First Round win over Thiago Monteiro will have him feeling better about his tennis. Miomir Kecmanovic was beaten by the same opponent in Rome, but he does hold a win over Casper Ruud on the red dirt in the lead up to the French Open and that will give him confidence, and Daniil Medvedev something to think about.

However, it has not been a good match up for Kecmanovic who has lost all three previous matches against Daniil Medvedev and without causing too many problems either. This is the first meeting in sixteen months, but Medvedev will fondly remember beating this opponent in three very comfortable sets at Roland Garros two years ago.

We should have a more competitive match than that under a likely roof with poor weather forecasted, but Daniil Medvedev can still come out on top and cover the spread set for the Second Round match.


Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: There was nothing to really worry Casper Ruud in the First Round and he made relatively easy work of his opponent just days after winning the Geneva title. He has reached the Final in back to back years at the French Open, but the last player to beat Ruud who was not called Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will be standing on the other side of the net in this Second Round match.

He only missed out on a Seeding spot so this might be as tough a match as Casper Ruud could face when going up against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

The Spaniard is well versed on playing on the clay courts, but confidence has to have been dented by his 1-4 record on the surface leading into Paris. The First Round win was expected, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina perhaps made it a touch more difficult than it should have been and further underlines the feeling that he is playing without a lot of confidence.

However, it makes him dangerous that there is 'nothing to lose' and there is no doubting that Davidovich Fokina can produce some top clay court tennis.

We know Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can return very well, but his serve has really not been up to scratch and that could be exploited by Casper Ruud.

The expectation is that there will be competitive games and one, perhaps two sets could be very tight, but you have to lean towards the more confident Casper Ruud to get this done. He will remember losing to Davidovich Fokina at Roland Garros, but this is a good opportunity to earn revenge behind a strong win.


Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Diane Parry: These days Elina Svitolina is treated like an honourable Frenchwoman having married Gael Monfils, but the crowd might be a little more split than usual when the Ukrainian takes to the courts of Roland Garros.

A loud, vocal support helped Elina Svitolina come from behind to beat Karolina Pliskova in the First Round, but there will be plenty supporting Diane Parry in this Second Round match that may have to be played under the roof.

It will certainly help the atmosphere grow that much more, and the 21 year old Frenchwoman will be looking for revenge having lost in her home country against Elina Svitolina last week in Strasbourg. Diane Parry also had to come from a set behind to beat a compatriot in the First Round so she may be ready for the split loyalties the crowd will be faced with and instead has to focus on her tennis.

Prior to this tournament, Diane Parry had been struggling for form with a single win on the clay courts and so there is a significant gap to bridge.

She will also gain some confidence from the fact that Elina Svitolina has been struggling for consistency on the red dirt, even if the French Open Quarter Finalist from 2023 has shown how well she can take to this surface.

The strengths of the players might be going up against one another here- Diane Parry may feel her serve can set up a few more easier points, but Elina Svitolina is a very strong return player and that has shown throughout her clay court season.

It was the Elina Svitolina return which won the day when the players met in Strasbourg, but this is expected to be a tough test for the higher Ranked player. Diane Parry has to believe that it won't take much to turn things around in the match up after the defeat last week, but the overriding feeling is that Elina Svitolina will find a way to frank the form in a good looking Second Round match.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Mayar Sherif: The American has been more comfortable on the clay courts than you may expect and Madison Keys is certainly capable of having a deep run at the French Open in 2024.

She won the title in Strasbourg last week to build confidence, while runs in Madrid and Rome were both ended by Iga Swiatek, who has been the dominant clay court player on the women's side of the sport for some time.

After winning in the First Round without breaking a sweat, Madison Keys has to expect a bit more of a challenge from Mayar Sherif.

Last year Mayar Sherif reached a career best World Ranking of Number 31, but she is back outside of the top 50 heading into this tournament. Much like Madison Keys, Sherif made easy work of a First Round opponent, while she has reached back to back clay court Finals in the two weeks prior to the start of the French Open.

Losses in those Finals will have hurt, but they have been a part of a strong run of form for Mayar Sherif and that makes her dangerous and to be respected. At her best, the Egyptian can match the serving output that Madison Keys will expect from her own game, but whether Sherif can do that for long enough to win the match is another question altogether.

A competitive set cannot be ruled out, but Madison Keys may be able to then get on top and exert her extra qualities on the match. She has a slightly stronger returning numbers this season and that may be the big difference maker for Keys as she looks to march into the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 6-1, + 7.40 Units (14 Units Staked, + 52.86% Yield)

Tuesday, 28 May 2024

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 29th May)

The update from the Tuesday matches will be placed in this thread, but the tournament moves onto the Second Round and these are the selections from Day 4 at Roland Garros.


Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Pedro Martinez: The First Round win over Taro Daniel may have been a little tougher than expected, but Andrey Rublev was still a relatively comfortable four set winner. Picking up a Masters title in Madrid will certainly have Rublev believing he can finally end his wait for a place in the Semi Final or better at a Grand Slam.

However, results outside of that tournament have been pretty poor on the clay courts and there is going to need to be a significant improvement if the World Number 6 is going to crack through the Quarter Final stage.

He cannot take any opponent for granted and will have to respect Pedro Martinez and his capabilities on the clay courts. The Spaniard is still operating within the top 50 of the World Rankings and there is little doubt that Martinez has produced his best form on the clay courts, a surface that would have been very familiar to him when growing his way onto the Tour.

An almost four hour, five set win is not ideal preparation for Pedro Martinez, but the comfort of playing on this surface will help. He has also won a title on the clay courts this season, while reaching the Final in two other events, albeit at a lower level than the one where Andrey Rublev was successful.

Pedro Martinez has beaten Casper Ruud on the clay this season, but he has also suffered some one-sided defeats to top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface. The numbers suggest he may struggle to get into the return games and that should aid Andrey Rublev in being able to eventually wear down and pull away from this Second Round obstacle.

When these two met at the US Open in 2021, the first two sets were incredibly competitive before Rublev was able to turn the screw. This one should be a bit closer, but the Russian player can still find a way to cover this handicap mark with a set being won by a wide margin.


Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: It would be a real surprise if either of these players was involved in the business end of the French Open, but solid First Round wins will have given both Grigor Dimitrov and Fabian Marozsan some confidence to take into this match.

Straight sets wins in the opening Round of a Grand Slam will provide a real boost to any player, especially on the Men's side of the tournament where the best of five set format increases the importance of winning without being overly taxed.

The wins for Fabian Marozsan and Grigor Dimitrov are perhaps a little surprising in how comfortable they were considering the lack of consistency shown on the surface prior to Roland Garros. At least Dimitrov can point to having a winning record, even when facing relatively early defeats, but Fabian Marozsan had only produced a 2-4 record on the clay before his First Round win in Paris.

The wins might not have been forthcoming this season, but Fabian Marozsan has shown he is a decent enough clay court player in previous years. Last year he had a solid run at the Rome Masters, but the majority of the stronger results produced by the Hungarian have been at Challenger level and that has perhaps been underlined by the tough time he has had on the the red dirt over the last two months.

Grigor Dimitrov has long had decent enough numbers on the clay courts without having the results to back those up- the serve has been in decent nick on the surface, but Dimitrov has been held back by inconsistent returning and so the performance in the First Round will make him feel a lot better.

This is the first time these two players will be facing one another on the Tour, but Grigor Dimitrov may just use all of his previous experiences to edge past this opponent and do enough to cover this spread.


Liudmila Samsonova - 2.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: There is still time on her side in order to fulfil the kind of potential most believe Amanda Anisimova has had, but it has been a tough couple of years for the 22 year old.

She returned to the Tour earlier this year and is currently the World Number 231, but this is a talented player who looked capable of winning a Grand Slam before personal issues perhaps made it tough to focus on her tennis.

The clay court season has not been the best for Amanda Anisimova who has a 2-3 record on the surface after edging past Rebecca Sramkova in the First Round. She had won sets, but Amanda Anisimova had lost three matches in a row on the surface prior to the win here in Paris and will know that this is a much tougher match on paper.

It has not been a clay court season for Liudmila Samsonova to write home about, but three wins in Strasbourg last week will have restored some confidence. We saw evidence of that in her crushing First Round win over Magda Linette and Samsonova may believe her first serve can give her the edge when it comes to trying to beat Amanda Anisimova on Wednesday.

The American has to be respected having reached the Semi Final at the French Open in 2019 and taking the first set against Ashleigh Barty before going down in three sets. However, Amanda Anisimova looks to be some way below that level in her current rebuilding mode and ultimately that should show up in this Second Round match.

Two wins over Liudmila Samsonova will give Anisimova confidence, especially as one was at the Australian Open earlier this year. She was much less match hardened for that match, but the change in surface may just aid Samsonova who can come through in two competitive sets.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liudmila Samsonova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 5-1, + 5.80 Units (12 Units Staked, + 48.33% Yield)

Monday, 27 May 2024

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Tuesday 28th May)

The first few days of the French Open are going to be busy for myself, so the threads will mainly be focusing on putting a few thoughts down noting why selections are being made.

The update from the tournament will be added as soon as Day 2 is completed.


Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The 20 year old Alex Michelsen is continuing his surge up the World Rankings and he is operating at a career best number, but like so many American players, the clay courts are a real learning experience for him. This is a talented player, but many from the States are used to the hard courts and the relative quickness of the courts compared with the patient approach needed to constructing points on the clay.

He has found that tough to do, although a couple of wins in Geneva last week will have given Alex Michelsen a boost in confidence ahead of a first match in Paris.

Prior to the two wins last week, Michelsen had won just two of the nine matches played on the clay courts this season and is lack of experience has been telling. The service numbers have really taken a dent with Alex Michelsen not getting as many cheap points as he may do on the faster surfaces, while the inexperience on the red dirt has not helped when it comes to constructing return points.

The First Round match is not against the strongest clay court player, but Alex De Minaur is competent enough on the surface.

He has not had a lot of wins on the clay over the last several weeks, but De Minaur has not been given too many kind draws and defeats to the likes of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas can be forgiven. The Australian did beat Nadal in Barcelona before losing to the Spaniard in Madrid, while Alex De Minaur has beaten the players he would have expected to beat and perhaps lost to those he wouldn't expect to better.

The serve can be vulnerable, but De Minaur looks to be the stronger player when it comes to the return and he should be able to beat Alex Michelsen with some comfort by the time all is said and done.

Alex Michelsen did beat Alex De Minaur earlier this season, but that was on a hard court and the latter can earn some revenge with a big win in the First Round at the second Grand Slam of the season.


Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Felipe Meligeni Alves: The majority of the top contenders usually avoid playing in the week prior to a Grand Slam beginning, but playing in Geneva has proved a good building block for Casper Ruud. He won that title for a third year in a row on Saturday and has followed the last two by reaching the French Open Final, albeit coming up short against Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

With so much uncertainty surrounding some of the other contenders, Casper Ruud fans have to believe that their man can go one better this time around.

He has long been one of the better clay court players and Casper Ruud has won two titles on the surface in the lead up to the French Open. He also reached the Final at the Monte Carlo Masters, although the relatively early losses in Madrid and Rome were disappointing.

Casper Ruud will begin his French Open bid on Tuesday so he should be well rested by the time he is asked to take to the court. Being one of the top Seeds, Ruud has also benefited from a kind looking First Round draw, even if Felipe Meligeni Alves is going to be very comfortable on this surface.

The Brazilian reached a new career high World Ranking last month, but he is yet to have cracked the top 100 and so might be a little hardened to the conditions in Paris having coming through three Qualifying Rounds to earn a spot in the main draw. That will help Felipe Meligeni Alves mentally, but this is a significant step up in class compared to the opponents he has beaten to enter the First Round and the general level on which he operates.

Felipe Meligeni Alves has won four matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this season to improve his career mark to five wins against such opponents. However, Meligeni Alves was well beaten by Lorenzo Musetti earlier this month who is the second highest Ranked opponent that he has played on the clay.

This is the first time these players are meeting so it may take Ruud a bit of time to understand what is coming back his way, but in a best of five set match, the expectation is that the World Number 7 will pull clear as it progresses.


Elena Rybakina - 6.5 games v Greet Minnen: An illness meant Elena Rybakina was not able to defend the title she won in Rome last year, but a couple of solid tournaments on the clay courts will have given the World Number 4 real belief ahead of her return to Paris. Last season she was not able to compete in the Third Round match at the French Open, but Elena Rybakina has shown enough on the clay courts in the last couple of years to believe she is a genuine threat to win the title.

Being in the opposite half of the draw to Iga Swiatek will help, although the World Number 1 remains the clear favourite to win the title.

Barring an upset on Monday, that will still be the case when Elena Rybakina takes to the court, but the focus has to be on winning this match and getting her own tournament off to a strong start.

Elena Rybakina and her team have to be happy with the draw that has pitted her agaisnt Greet Minnen in the opening Round.

The Belgian player has dropped down to World Number 86 after a poor run of results on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Greet Minnen has not had a single win against someone Ranked inside the top 100 and she has lost four matches in a row, while she has also suffered some one-sided defeats on the red dirt in 2024.

A major problem for Greet Minnen is that her second serve has proven to be a real weakness in her game and you have to believe Elena Rybakina will be able to exploit that. It has added up to pressure on the Minnen return game, but she will struggle to get a lof of joy from Rybakina barring a poor serving day from one of the favourites.

It is unlikely and Elena Rybakina may be able to get her French Open tournament off to a strong start.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 2-1, + 0.88 Units (6 Units Staked, + 14.67% Yield)

Sunday, 26 May 2024

French Open Day 2 Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 27th May)

You could hear the audible gasp when Rafael Nadal's name was placed next to Alexander Zverev as the French Open draw was being made on Thursday.

The second Grand Slam of the season will begin on Sunday, but all of the focus in the lead up was surrounding Nadal and whether the fourteen time Champion would be ready to compete.

For some time it has felt like this would be the last time the Spaniard would compete at the French Open and there is a real belief that Rafael Nadal may choose to end his career after the Olympics (which are also played on these courts).

This could not have been a tougher draw for Rafael Nadal, who has had some mixed results on the clay courts, but if he can find a way to get through the First Round, maybe we will have the fairytale ending that Nadal, his family and fans would all be hoping for.


It has been a difficult time for a number of the big names in Men's Tennis and this may mean we are going to have a much more open tournament than expected.

Five players are set as single digits when it comes to the outright market, but there have to be questions about Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, who have both been dealing with injuries. Novak Djokovic is the defending Champion, but is clearly not so happy with his form that he has made a rare decision to play in the week prior to the Grand Slam beginning.

Alexander Zverev won in Rome and may take a huge amount of stopping if he was to beat Rafa Nadal in the First Round, while both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud are very solid clay courters who have won decent titles on the surface.


The Women's event looks a bit more straight-forward- if Iga Swiatek is anywhere near her best, she wins a third straight French Open title and the fourth in five years. She has won the big events in Madrid and Rome and Swiatek will be very tough to beat on these courts, although the World Number 1 does have a couple of potential dangerous floaters that will need to be seen off between now and June 8th.

It is no surprise that Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina come next in the market, but the top Seed is the clear favourite here.


There has been a break in the Tennis Picks and that was largely down to a very disappointing opening three months with some bad fortune attached to some poor selections.

The Australian Open was particularly disappointing so it does mean taking a step back to more two forward is the best approach and one that makes sense in what is a very long season.

After this tournament, the next focus will be on Wimbledon which begins in early July and the hope is to put two very solid Grand Slam returns together.


The First Round at the French Open is split over three days and the uncertainty about when matches are going to be played means some of the threads may be longer than others until me move into the Second Round on Wednesday.

In Melbourne it was a game in which the Picks were trailing right from the off, so there is a hope and expectation to make a stronger start in Paris and lay a solid foundation for a good tournament.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Rafael Nadal: Despite the hopes of the broadcasters, Rafael Nadal has gotten his wish of having this First Round match played in the day session at Roland Garros on Monday.

It is the match of the Round, but Nadal is well aware that his best chance of upsetting Alexander Zverev is playing in the hot part of the day when his spins can really be ramped up.

Using the word 'upset' in association with Rafael Nadal at the French Open would usually have been in relation to his opponent having a chance of beating the 14 time Champion in Paris. The Spaniard has only lost three times at this tournament and by only two men, but Nadal looks to have settled on this being his last year on the Tour and he has simply not looked the same level of player as he once was.

He played pretty well in Madrid, but Nadal has suffered early losses in Barcelona and Rome and his numbers have simply backed up the fact that he is not on the level he could once produce.

In saying all that, it is still Rafael Nadal playing on the red dirt at the French Open and ruling him out completely would be a mistake.

However, the draw has been pretty unkind as he prepares to face the Rome Champion Alexander Zverev who is also one of the favourites to life the title here. Prior to the title run in the Italian Capital, Zverev had produced some mixed results on the clay courts, while there will be painful memories of the last time he faced Rafael Nadal on this court when he suffered a serious injury that ruled him out for multiple months.

The German has reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros in each of the last three years and so should be pretty comfortable on the surface too. The serve will be a key weapon for Alexander Zverev and the fact he has beaten Nadal on a clay court before should also help as he looks to get the better of the faded Champion.

Pressure can do funny things and Zverev will know there is a sense of expectation around him for this match, but he has enough experience to handle things. Rafael Nadal is expected to be competitive at moments, but the lack of matches and the quality of Alexander Zverev should see the higher Seed move through in three or four sets.


Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v Pavel Kotov: There is not expected to be a lot of British interest at the French Open when we reach the business end of this tournament, but one of the better hopes may be Cameron Norrie.

It has been a tough year for the left-hander who has slipped out of the top 32 in the World Rankings, which means the likelihood of having tougher opening Round draws at the Grand Slam events. His clay court season has been mixed since April, but Norrie has seen the problems thaat come with a dropped World Ranking as he has suffered early losses to the likes of Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas, two very capable clay courters who are amongst the favourites at the second Grand Slam of the season.

On paper this looks a tough, but winnable First Round match for the British player as he prepares to face Pavel Kotov.

The Russian has reached a new career high World Ranking earlier this month, and he has had some decent results on the clay courts in the build to the French Open. The results have been more mixed when only accounting for matches against players Ranked in the top 100, while Kotov has lost four of the five matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts.

It feels like Cameron Norrie will have the edge when it comes down to the serve and that may ultimately give him the opportunity to win this one. He has played well when facing opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings, and Cameron Norrie may just have the majority of the Break Point opportunities through the course of this match.

Cameron Norrie dominated the match when facing Pavel Kotov on the clay courts of Barcelona in April 2023, but the latter should show his improvements made over the last thirteen months. However, Norrie may still be the superior player and can show that by moving through to the Second Round behind a three or four set win.


Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 games v Rebeka Masarova: She reached the Final at Roland Garros in 2019 and Marketa Vondrousova will be the defending Wimbledon Champion when the tournament gets underway in South West London in July.

However, the World Number 6 can flatter to deceive at times and her record at the French Open since losing to Ashleigh Barty in the 2019 Final has been pretty poor.

The left-hander will get her tournament underway on Monday and this does look a good chance to open with a solid win when facing Rebeka Masarova.

The Spaniard has slipped down the World Rankings and is barely clinging onto a top 100 Ranking these days, while her tournaments in Madrid and Rome ended relatively quickly. In the main, Masarova has decided to rebuild by dropping down a level and her clay court numbers will not really give Marketa Vondrousova too much to worry about.

Much more will depend on what kind of mood Vondrousova is in herself having had a pretty quiet clay court season outside of a good run in Stuttgart. The serve can be a vulnerable weapon at times and that will offer Rebeka Masarova some encouragement, although the Czech player should be good enough on the returning side of her tennis to keep the lower Ranked player under some pressure.

In the main, Marketa Vondrousova has been too good for the players Ranked outside of the top 50 that she has faced on the clay courts. She had won twelve of those matches in a row before losing to Anhelina Kalinina last week in Strasbourg and the feeling is that the former Finalist will begin a new run on Monday with a pretty comfortable win.

The only previous match between these two players was played on a hard court in 2023 and Masarova won just two games on that day. On the clay courts you would have to expect the Spaniard to be more competitive than that, but Marketa Vondrousova should be able to win one set by a wide enough margin to set her on her way to a win and cover. 

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.57 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)