NFL Week 16 Picks 2023 (December 21-25)

The NFL is all about parity and the standings in both Conferences underlines the mantra with so many still in contention to force their way into the post-season.

There are some stand out teams, but also a lot of teams that may just need to get hot between now and the end of the regular season to build PlayOff momentum.

It says so much that only one team in the AFC has officially earned a PlayOff spot and that is the Baltimore Ravens after winning on Sunday Night Football in Week 16. The AFC East and AFC South Division races are heating up, while teams as low as Number 11 in the Conference standings will still believe they are in a position to secure a PlayOff spot with three weeks remaining.

Things are beginning to clear up in the NFC after two more teams joined the San Francisco 49ers- both of those are from the NFC East with the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys still hoping they can finish with the Number 1 Seed and the Divisional crown, thus avoiding having to travel on Wild Card Weekend.

The Detroit Lions should soon become the fourth NFC team that will be in PlayOff action, but, like the AFC, we then have a host of teams hoping they can push into the post-season.

The only difference in my opinion is that the AFC looks to have some potentially dangerous Wild Card teams, whereas the NFC will have the team that finishes in second place in the East Division as a potential threat, but two others that will likely be big underdogs to reach the Divisional Round.

Week 16 is coming up fast and the games are going to be played across the Christmas weekend, including two on Christmas Day, much to the chagrin of the NBA.

As we get down to the end of the regular season, these games are going to have a big impact on the final standings and teams have to be thinking about building momentum with the Super Bowl lights beginning to pierce the horizon.

Once again, the top five teams in the Rankings that have been placed here in the last few weeks can be seen below:

1) San Francisco 49ers (11-3): a blowout win on the road keeps them on track for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and the 49ers may be the favourites to win it all from here.

2) Baltimore Ravens (11-3): a solid road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars means the Ravens are still control of the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. They play the 49ers on Monday, a potential Super Bowl preview, but also have to face the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers so there is work for Baltimore to secure the top Seed.

3) Detroit Lions (10-4): they are likely going to win the NFC North, and the Lions deserve to move up after the NFC East teams both had disappointing outings.

4) Dallas Cowboys (10-4): falling just one position might be a little kind to the Cowboys after a terrible performance in Week 15, but they edge out the likes of the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles.

5) Philadelphia Eagles (10-4): the Number 1 Seed looks like it is gone, but the bigger concern for the Eagles is that they are going to have to be the Number 5 Seed if they cannot win out and hope the Cowboys drop a game. A poor loss to Drew Lock-led Seattle Seahawks really did hurt.

You can make a case for the Miami Dolphins to have pushed into the top five after the defeats suffered by the two NFC East teams, but I have stated that they have to beat a good team before they are really to be trusted.

Over the next three weeks the Dolphins will get to prove themselves, but there has to be a concern about the momentum picked up by the Buffalo Bills who might be favourites to win the Division right now, despite being two games behind Miami.

These teams meet in Week 18, but Miami could easily lose to the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens over the next two weeks, which could make that game between the Dolphins and the Bills an AFC East decider to wrap up the regular season.

Twists and turns are to be expected over the next three weeks, and we have seen many in the last couple of weeks, as the PlayOff picture continues to shape up.

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: We are down to the final three weeks of the regular season and both the New Orleans Saints (7-7) and Los Angeles Rams (7-7) are right in the middle of a push to reach the PlayOffs. The expectations were perhaps greater on the Saints to do that this season, especially for Head Coach Dennis Allen, but it has been forgotten that the Rams are only a couple of years on from winning the Super Bowl.

Transition was the buzzword around the Los Angeles Rams, but Matthew Stafford has proven that he remains one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL and the team have some momentum.

It has come too late to chase down the San Francisco 49ers within the NFC West, but they are one of four teams at 7-7 and the Rams would make the PlayOffs if the season ended today.

A Division title is still being chased by the New Orleans Saints who have the same record as NFC South leaders Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That makes the Week 17 game between the two teams feel that much more important and the Saints are in a tough position playing on a short week and crossing a couple of time zones to do that.

They will also be facing a Los Angeles Offensive unit that has found a really good rhythm on this side of the ball thanks to the presence of a veteran Quarter Back and a strong Offensive Line.

The Rams Offensive Line have opened up some big running lanes for Kyren Williams in recent games and Los Angeles are expected to have the Running Back established. Some may feel the Saints could clamp down on Williams much as they did to Saquon Barkley in Week 15, but this time they will have Matthew Stafford looking to exploit spaces rather than Tommy DeVito.

New Orleans have excelled in the passing game of late, but they have been helped by the poor Quarter Backs they have faced outside of Jared Goff. Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young and DeVito are the others, and the Saints will be given a lot more to think about with Matthew Stafford and the quality passing game produced by the Rams.

The lean has to be with Los Angeles to win this game, but covering may be tougher if they perform as they did when trying to protect a big lead against the Washington Commanders.

Derek Carr might not be playing as well as the New Orleans Saints would have hoped, while has been dealing with injuries through the year. However, he has Chris Olave back in the line up and the Saints have players that can have success when operating around and through this Rams Secondary as long as Derek Carr can avoid turnovers.

Alvin Kamara may be a threat as a pass catching Running Back coming out of the backfield, although he may not be as effective establishing the run. The Rams have struggled to really control the run as they would have hoped, but the New Orleans Offensive Line have been better at pass protection rather than run blocking.

A backdoor cover could be produced by the Saints, but this is not an ideal spot for them with little time to prepare.

The game in Week 17 is arguably more important for the Saints who may just need to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons to win the Division. It could be something that distracts the team in this tough spot and the Los Angeles Rams can back up their important win over the Commanders.

Los Angeles are 5-2 against the spread as the favourite this season and they can use their strong Offensive unit to put enough scoring together to get past this number too.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The AFC North is still on course to have all four teams produce winning records, although life comes at you very fast in the NFL.

Just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) who meet in a pivotal Divisional clash in Week 16 of the season. Neither team is going to chase down the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North crown, but this is a huge game in terms of the AFC Wild Card shake up and so much has changed since these teams met in Week 12 on Thanksgiving Weekend.

After losing Joe Burrow to a season ending injury, the Bengals were beaten at home by the Steelers in Jake Browning's first start at Quarter Back. That dropped Cincinnati to 5-6, while the win for the Pittsburgh Steelers moved them to 7-4 and the two teams faced very differing schedules before they were due to meet again with the Bengals facing some tough, PlayOff chasing opponents and the Steelers heading into games against two of the weaker NFL teams.

So much to the surprise of many, it is the Bengals who have a three game winning run and look like they might just return to the post-season, while the Steelers have lost three in a row and Mike Tomlin's proud record of never suffering a losing season as the Pittsburgh Head Coach is under threar.

Offensive Co-Ordinator Matt Canada has gone and the initial 'big' Offensive performance has not been replicated in subsequent games. Instead, the Steelers look to have regressed again and a decision has been made to give Mason Rudolph the start at Quarter Back rather than Mitchell Trubisky in place of the injured Kenny Pickett.

Mitchell Trubisky has struggled and looks like he is going to struggle to earn a backup role going forward, while Mason Rudolph has had a mixed time at Quarter Back. However, it says so much about Trubisky and the Offensive problems that the fans have been calling for Rudolph to come in and they will be hoping Christmas magic inspires him to lead the Steelers into the post-season.

The Offensive Line has been having some issues of late and the Steelers have a pedestrian game plan, but they will be going back to the well in Week 16. It means giving Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren plenty of carries against a Cincinnati Defensive Line that suffered a big injury to DJ Reader last week.

Recent improvements at clamping down on the run may not be as evident in this one and that should give the Steelers a chance to have a better Offensive outing with the run so key to everything they do. Trusting Mason Rudolph to exploit the obvious holes in the Bengals Secondary is difficult, but there are a couple of quality Receivers he can target and it is so much easier to do that from third and manageable rather than third and long.

Anything other than manageable down and distance will likely mean Mason Rudolph is dealing with the Bengals pass rush, while this Bengals Secondary have made some big plays at Intercepting the ball when it is thrown against them. Turnovers have been a killer for the Steelers in recent games and really put their own Defensive unit under significant pressure, so it is imperative that they play as clean a game on this side of the ball.

Establishing the run and using Jaylen Warren as a safety blanket should help and Pittsburgh may have a bit more Offensive success than we have become used to seeing in recent games.

The banged up Steelers Defense is also going to have to step up for the team to keep their post-season hopes alive as they look to rattle Jake Browning for a second time in five weeks. The Quarter Back has been a little inconsistent as expected, but Browning has made some big plays in this three game winning run, which has included two Overtime wins, and there has been a nice balance to the play-calling.

Cincinnati will want to give Joe Mixon and Chase Brown an opportunity to establish the run, although that is still going to be a challenge early on in this game. Pittsburgh may not be trotting out the Steel Curtain of old, but they have restricted teams early and only been worn down within games and begun to allow Running Backs to break open some big gains on the ground.

A stronger control of the clock Offensively will help Pittsburgh and they will believe they can contain Mixon/Brown and at least force Jake Browning to have to take to the air to beat them.

Jake Browning was Sacked four times and threw an Interception in the 16-10 home loss to the Steelers, but he has looked much more comfortable during this three game winning run. Injuries at all levels of the Steelers Defensive unit should mean Browning has a stronger day in this one, although Cincinnati are going to be without Ja'Marr Chase, which is a massive blow.

The Quarter Back will not want to hold onto the ball too long with the Steelers still generating a decent pass rush and the feeling is that Pittsburgh are being under-rated as the home underdog.

Make no mistake, it is not easy to trust a team that has found a way to lose here against the New England Patriots, and who have been blown out by Arizona and Indianapolis. However, the Steelers do match up pretty well with the Bengals on the Defensive side of the ball and Mason Rudolph could give the home fans a lift at Quarter Back.

Most important is the fact that it feels the Steelers will be able to establish the run and that is so important to them on both sides of the ball. Mike Tomlin has a 17-6-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog and the Steelers could just shake things up again in the AFC Wild Card Race.

The Bengals are playing with confidence and it would have been really good to have gotten the full Field Goal worth of points with the underdog, but Pittsburgh still look the right side in this one as long as Mason Rudolph does not come out slinging turnovers like he is helping Santa deliver presents.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: There are some good looking teams at the top of the current AFC Seedings, but make no mistake, not one of them will be hoping the Buffalo Bills (8-6) will be able to surge into the PlayOffs. There is still a chance the Bills will win the AFC East, but they would be missing the post-season if the PlayOffs started today and need to win out.

At the start of the season this game might have felt like being a pivotal one in terms of the PlayOff Seedings, but the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) have made too many mistakes early in the season. Those have put them behind the black ball, but the injuries picked up across the board have really made it impossible for Los Angeles and they are unsurprisingly a big underdog in Week 16.

Despite the extra time to prepare, it is very difficult to ignore the manner in which the Chargers were crushed by Divisional rivals Las Vegas Raiders in Week 15. Losing Justin Herbert for the season at Quarter Back was never going to be easy to overcome, but Easton Stick is not ready to play at this level and it does not help that he is with little support around him.

Keenan Allen has been ruled out so asking the Quarter Back to make consistent plays through the air is perhaps asking too much. Add in the fact that the Chargers Offensive Line have not looked capable of establishing the run all season and it becomes difficult to imagine Los Angeles being good enough to exploit some of the problems the Bills have had when it comes to defending the run.

If this game gets out of hand early, as it did in Week 15, it will be very difficult to ask Easton Stick to keep the Chargers competitive through the air.

Most will be expecting the Chargers to struggle to contain Buffalo, but the blow out in Week 15 has led to the firing of Brandon Staley as Head Coach and sweeping away the General Manager means the team could be one in transition. However, it should be noted that teams who fire Head Coaches in-season have tended to produce a big effort the following week and the extra time afforded to the Chargers to put together a game plan could mean they are potentially more dangerous than they would have been.

Focus might be the biggest opponent even then and Buffalo will need to focus having played Philadelphia, Kansas City and Dallas in their last three games. Back to back wins have just gotten the Bills back on track as far as the PlayOffs are concerned, but they cannot afford a slip and they are playing on a short week.

James Cook may not have been given a game ball in front of the cameras last week, but he was the star of the show for the Bills and they may want to lean on him again. The Offensive Line have been powering forward to establish the run and Cook and Josh Allen should be able to keep the chains moving with their legs, while they can hook up through the air too as seen in the big win over the Cowboys.

Josh Allen was not asked to do a lot in the win over the Cowboys as Buffalo trampled them on the ground, but he should be able to make a few big throws in an indoor Stadium on Saturday evening. The Bills will be facing a Chargers Secondary that could be without Deane Leonard and Allen does have a Receiving corps that will want to be more involved in a winning performance.

Staying in front of the chains should afford the Quarter Back enough time to expose some of the match ups in the Secondary and the feeling is that Buffalo can keep the momentum going.

They are facing the New England Patriots next week so should not be thinking ahead and the Los Angeles Chargers could be more interested in playing spoiler for Divisional rivals Denver and Kansas City. A new Coaching team should inspire a reaction after being crushed by the Raiders, but the Chargers still look really short on the Offensive side of the ball and that may reduce some of the spirit they enter the game with.

If Buffalo get on top early, they should be able to clear this big spread on the road and have the public just get the better of the sharp action that has reduced the spread by a point.

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Three regular season weeks remain and that means the margin for error is reduced drastically for teams chasing PlayOff spots.

Both the Indianapolis Colts (8-6) and Atlanta Falcons (6-8) are surprising post-season contenders, although the momentum is with the former. The two teams have struggled at the Quarter Back position, but Gardner Minshew has shown his experience and the Falcons are turning back to Taylor Heinicke in the hope the veteran can just right the ship.

Desmond Ridder might have played his last snaps as a starting Quarter Back for Atlanta after an absolutely scandalous Interception thrown in the Red Zone last week. Without a doubt it was the moment where the Falcons threw away the opportunity to beat the lowly Carolina Panthers and they are now behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints within the NFC South.

The Saints were beaten on Thursday Night Football, but the Falcons will know they likely need to win out if they are going to make their way into the PlayOffs. This will perhaps save Head Coach Arthur Smith from what looks like a firing if the Falcons fail to reach the post-season so there is plenty of pressure all around having made the change at Quarter Back to spark something.

It looks a tough match up for Taylor Heinicke.

Despite having a player like Bijan Robinson at Running Back, the Falcons have inexplicably either not made him the lead Back or the Offensive Line is massively underperforming. No matter the shake up, the Falcons could have a tough time establishing the run against this Colts Defensive Line bolstered by Grover Stewart and that means it will be up to Heinicke to make the plays to keep the chains moving.

Taylor Heinicke could have some success throwing the ball considering the big time Receivers that have be hugely under-appreciated by the Falcons. However, playing out of third and long will mean dealing with a positive Indianapolis pass rush and Heinicke will need to be aware that this Colts Secondary is capable of stepping in front of the passing lanes and turning the ball over.

This may mean the Falcons need to lean on the Defensive unit that has continued to play at a good level, even with the team two games below 0.500 for the season.

Gardner Minshew will be pleased to hear Michael Pittman Jr is trending towards playing after taking a monumental hit last week in the win over Pittsburgh. More importantly, the Indianapolis Colts could have Jonathan Taylor activated this week and that will certainly help the veteran Quarter Back with the Colts looking to establish the run to open up the pass.

Establishing the run against this Falcons Defensive Line will not be easy, but Taylor's return will certainly help and keeping the Colts in front of the down and distance would be a huge boost for the road underdog.

It will also help keep Gardner Minshew upright as it just eases the Falcons pass rush, while helping an Indianapolis Offensive Line that has not reached the heights expected. They will want Minshew to be in a position where he does not need to allow routes to develop too far down the field as the Colts control the clock, while also not having to take too many risks against this Atlanta Secondary.

This has all of the makings of a close game, but the Colts have the momentum and that should show up here.

The Falcons are only 4-3 at home this season, while Arthur Smith has to be feeling the seat warming up considerably on his position as Head Coach. Atlanta are a miserable 4-11 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when set as the favourite and Indianapolis might be able to make a few plays against Taylor Heinicke to set themselves up for the win that will keep them in contention to win the AFC South.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans Pick: The Monday Night Football win has to be considered an unexpected one for the Seattle Seahawks (7-7) having started with Drew Lock at Quarter Back against the Philadelphia Eagles. It is also a win that might just have saved the season for Seattle, who had lost four in a row and who looked unlikely to snap that run and get back into the Wild Card mix.

They would be missing out if the PlayOffs were to begin right now, but the Seahawks have the same record as the Minnesota Vikings and can join Divisional rivals Los Angeles Rams at 8-7 if they can win this one on the road. The Seahawks are likely to be favoured in all three games left to play in the regular season and winning out will be expected to carry them into the PlayOffs, while they are boosted by a returning Geno Smith at Quarter Back.

It is an early Eastern Time start for the Seattle Seahawks who will be travelling across the nation on a short week, but they are facing a Tennessee Titans (5-9) team that has almost certainly been eliminated from PlayOff consideration after dropping an Overtime game to the Houston Texans in Week 15. The Titans may also have lost starting Quarter Back Will Levis for this game, but veteran Ryan Tannehill is ready to step in and that actually may work against Seattle.

The Seahawks Defensive Line will have to pick up their level of play if they are going to win this one on the road, even if the Titans have surprisingly been unable to get Derrick Henry going at Running Back. This is a good chance to 'get right' though and Henry should be able to have success pounding the rock, especially with a veteran at Quarter Back who will have to be respected by the Seahawks.

Derrick Henry and the Titans Offensive Line have not been able to get it going in recent weeks, but the Seahawks have struggled to clamp down on the run. Mike Vrabel will want his team to continue pounding the rock so this should be a day in which Henry has more success than we have seen of late, while also making sure Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis is protected at Quarter Back with the team in front of the chains.

Will Levis has held onto the ball for too long in recent games and swallowed way too many Sacks, but Ryan Tannehill should have the experience to make better reads. With the team expected to be in third and manageable spots, Tannehill, assuming he gets the start, will be able to attack this Seattle Secondary.

Turnovers may be a potential problem, but Tennessee are in a position to at least move the ball with some consistency in this game.

You would expect to say the same for the Seattle Seahawks, especially with the injuries that Tennessee are dealing with Defensively, but it may not be as comfortable for the road team.

For starters, the Titans have continued to play the run pretty well even without Jefferey Simmons, while the Seahawks have not really been able to motor forward on the ground as they would have liked in recent games. They did manage to get something going against the Eagles, so deserve respect, but Kenneth Walker III is a little banged up and so it may be up to Geno Smith to keep things moving.

The expectation is that the Seahawks have the Receivers to help Geno Smith do that and the Titans have had a susceptibility to the big play through the air. Seattle sound confident that Smith will be very healthy having been given an extra week to prepare and he will be able to help move the chains.

However, some of the drives could be stalled by the pass rush pressure that Tennessee should be able to generate whenever Geno Smith and company are in obvious passing situations. The pressure felt by the Seattle Quarter Backs can lead to one or two mistakes in the passing game and that is where the Titans will feel they can keep this one close.

The scheduled time and the short week plays against Seattle here and the Tennessee Titans have a solid record as the home underdog since Mike Vrabel has been the Head Coach. The Titans do have a chance to earn revenge over the Houston Texans for the Week 15 loss when facing them next week, but being at home should mean they put in a strong enough effort here to avoid the blow out loss at the very least.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans Pick: CJ Stroud looks to be trending in a negative direction and is unlikely to be suiting up for the Houston Texans (8-6) in this big AFC clash with the Cleveland Browns (9-5). They found a way to fight back and beat Divisional rivals the Tennessee Titans with Case Keenum at Quarter Back in Week 15 and the veteran is likely to be getting the call again as the Texans look to stay with the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars at the top of the AFC South.

Winning the Division is not out of the realms of possibility, while the Texans are also firmly in the Wild Card race, but three games are left and there is not much room for error. The Wild Card situation will feel clearer by the time Houston are ready to take to the field with a big AFC North Divisional game on Saturday having a big impact on the standings, but the work during the week will be focusing on winning this game.

The Texans will finish the season with two more AFC South games, but this could be a tie-breaker for the Wild Card places so make no mistake in downplaying the importance of the game.

Houston have split their last four games as some of the momentum has been slowed and injuries on both sides of the ball have caused problems. CJ Stroud is proving himself to be a Quarter Back that can elevate those around him, but it is tougher to ask Case Keenum to do the same, even if he did enough to help the Texans win last week.

The veteran was very much aided by Devin Singletary and the running game, but Houston's Offensive Line may struggle to break open big gains on the ground against this Cleveland Defensive Line. That will shift the pressure onto Case Keenum, who could be stepping back to throw from obvious passing positions on the field, and that is where the Browns pass rush is expected to make a big impact.

While CJ Stroud has the athleticism to aid the banged up Offensive Line, Case Keenum will find it much tougher to get away from the pressure. Nico Collins could be back in the line up for the Texans, which is a huge boost for the entire passing game, but Keenum will have to step into the pocket and make some big throws with pressure around him.

He can do that against a Cleveland Secondary that has not been as effective on the road, although they do continue to make enough plays to keep the team competitive. Case Keenum will really have to be aware of the Interceptions that the Browns have produced and those extra possessions could be crucial to the outcome of the game.

The Texans will roll with a veteran at Quarter Back and Cleveland will continue to do the same as Joe Flacco looks to take another AFC North team into the PlayOffs. A former Super Bowl Winner, Flacco has come in and sparked the Browns Offensively at a time they have really needed a Quarter Back to step up, and back to back wins over Jacksonville and Chicago have edged Cleveland closer to the post-season.

It has not been all plain-sailing for Joe Flacco and the Browns- Interceptions have been a problem as teams have clamped down on the run, and Joe Flacco may be forced to chuck the ball around in this one.

Nick Chubb has been a big loss, but the Browns Offensive Line have lost a couple of key starters and the run game is unlikely to be very effective in this one either. However, Joe Flacco has found a relative rhythm in the passing game and will give his team a chance as long as he is a little more careful with where he is throwing.

Will Anderson Jr is set to miss out again, although it did not slow down the Houston pass rush in their Week 15 win over the Tennessee Titans, and so Joe Flacco will likely be under some fierce pressure as much as Case Keenum. The positive for Flacco is that he has found an early chemistry with the likes of Amari Cooper and David Njoku and those players can help the team move into a position to win this game.

The one negative is that Cleveland are playing on Thursday Night Football at home, but that is against the lowly New York Jets and so they should be able to focus here.

The Browns have also not been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home (2-4 on the road compared with 7-1 at home), but this is a spot where they can get to Case Keenum and edge to the win.

Nothing comes easy for any road favourite, and turnovers are likely going to be the difference on the day.

However, the Browns have the momentum and they will feel Joe Flacco can out-duel Case Keenum and Cleveland may do enough to just about cover this mark.

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears Pick: There may have been faint hopes for the Chicago Bears (5-9) to make the PlayOffs after winning three of four games, but the narrow defeat to the Cleveland Browns in Week 15 has ended those hopes. They had a chance to win that game with a Hail Mary coming up with a close win to secure the go-ahead Touchdown, but there is still a motivation to finish this season as strongly as possible.

The Coaching staff need that if they are going to have another run with the Bears, while the same can be said for Quarter Back Justin Fields.

Injury has been an issue for Fields, while the Quarter Back has not really developed as the Chicago Bears would have hoped- some of that is down to the poor state of the team, but Justin Fields has only flashed his ability as a franchise player and there is a lot of feeling around the Bears that a new Quarter Back will be selected in the Draft.

They are likely going to be able to do that with the Carolina Panthers holding the Number 1 Pick in the Draft, a Pick that will be heading to Chicago after a trade made between the teams last year that allowed the Panthers to select Bryce Young.

Justin Fields does have a good chance to impress in this game against the Arizona Cardinals (3-11), although you do have to wonder if higher ups in the Chicago organisation would prefer a loss. At the moment the Cardinals only have one more win than the Carolina Panthers in the 'race' for the top Draft Pick so a win for the Bears may actually hurt them as an organisation.

Professional players could care less about who could come in to replace them, while Head Coach Matt Eberflus will not have a chance to have any new Quarter Back at his disposal if he loses games.

The Bears should be able to put together a fair few successful drives in this one and that is because the Arizona Defensive Line has continued to struggle to stop the run. This should mean Chicago can keep Justin Fields in front of the chains, while also allowing a dual-threat Quarter Back to perhaps move out of the pocket and pick up significant gains on the ground himself.

Doing so should open up a few of the passing lanes for Justin Fields, even in cooler conditions, and that should mean the Bears are able to have one of their more successful days on the Offensive side of the ball.

This should also help the Defensive unit as a young group have continued to show improvement and the Chicago Bears will feel they can get the better of Kyler Murray and company.

James Connor will be hoping to run the ball and put Arizona in a positive position on the field, although the Bears Defensive Line have been much more effective at clamping down on the run compared with their Cardinals counterparts. There should still be an opportunity for Connor, and Kyler Murray, to make some plays with their legs, but the Chicago Bears will be trying to force the Cardinals to beat them through the air.

Placing Murray in obvious passing situations should give the Bears an advantage with a much improved and effective pass rush likely to break into the backfield against this Arizona Offensive Line that has been happier run blocking. This pressure that has been around Kyler Murray when he throws has led to some inconsistencies in the passing game and Marquise Brown looks like he may miss out to reduce the options to catch the ball.

Kyler Murray should still have some successful drives, but those could be stalled into Field Goals rather than Touchdowns and it gives the Chicago Bears the edge.

Backing bad teams to do good things is not ideal, but the Bears have been playing much better than their overall record would indicate.

In the kind of conditions expected in the Windy City, Chicago should be more accustomed to dealing with what they face compared to the Cardinals and that may show up when all is said and done.

The Bears have not been a very good home favourite to back with Justin Fields behind Center, but this looks a rare occasion in which they can be backed to win and cover against a Cardinals team that were blown out at home by their Divisional rivals San Francisco in Week 15.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: After being an almost double digit favourite to beat this Divisional rival on the road, the Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) have to deal with a spread into the double digits in Week 16. The game has been moved to Christmas Day and the Chiefs have an opportunity to potentially win the AFC West if the Denver Broncos have been beaten on Sunday Night Football.

The main ambition going forward has to be trying to chase down the Number 1 Seed in the AFC with a two game gap between themselves and the Baltimore Ravens. The schedule looks manageable compared with the Ravens and Miami Dolphins, who face one another in Week 17, but Head Coach Andy Reid and his Kansas City players have to focus on their own performances.

Unlike previous years, the Kansas City Chiefs have not looked the clear favourite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl- they are the defending Champions, but the Chiefs have plenty to prove before we get into the PlayOffs, which are closing in at a rapid rate.

First up is this rematch with the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) who blew out the Los Angeles Chargers to give themselves an outside opportunity to perhaps push into the post-season too. Those hopes are pretty slight, but the Raiders have had a bit more time to prepare for this game and will be motivated to at least play spoiler for a disliked Divisional rival.

They may be without Josh Jacobs again so the Raiders may have to lean on Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah for another game. Both were able to get something going against the Chargers and will be needed to establish the run against the Kansas City Defensive unit.

It has been an issue for the Chiefs for much of the season and establishing the run will be a huge boost for Aidan O'Connell and the passing game. The inexperienced Quarter Back is still trying to prove he can be a franchise player for the Raiders at the most important position in the sport.

Four Touchdown passes were thrown against the Chargers in Week 15, but this is going to be a tougher test for O'Connell against a young, but effective Kansas City Secondary. Aidan O'Connell will feel the pressure from the Chiefs pass rush if he is playing from behind or the team are not able to run the ball as they would hope, while the Quarter Back will have to be careful of making mistakes that could really push this game in favour of the home team.

Kansas City also have something to prove in the passing game with the Receivers available to Patrick Mahomes still making plenty of costly mistakes.

Isiah Pacheco is expected to be back in the line up and that is a boost for the Chiefs, who have been able to run the ball quite efficiently this season. This may be a tougher test against this Raiders Defensive Line, but Pacheco did have 55 yards and two Touchdowns on the ground in the road win over the Raiders.

This should be a boost for Patrick Mahomes who had Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce combine for just shy of 200 yards through the air against the Raiders in their meeting at the end of November. Both Receivers will be important again, while Mahomes may have more time in the pockets if Maxx Crosby is not able to suit up.

It should mean Patrick Mahomes has one of his better outings at Quarter Back and he can find the spaces in the Raiders Secondary with the hope some of his Receivers can step up and make plays outside of Rice and Kelce.

After a big win, it is no surprise the Las Vegas Raiders are being backed by the public, but the sharp money has come down on the side of the home team.

Even a 14-0 lead in the top half of the Second Quarter was not enough for the Raiders to stay competitive with the Kansas City Chiefs in November. Four of the last five Kansas City wins against Las Vegas have been in blowout fashion and the Chiefs can give the fans some Christmas cheer with a big home win here.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Any late surge towards the PlayOffs came to a crashing halt for the New York Giants (5-9) who were blown out on the road in Week 15.

They are back on the road in Week 16 and the Giants are likely to be officially eliminated from the post-season at the end of this set of games. However, they are in a position to play spoiler for the Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) and that should mean plenty of motivation for the team to try and close out the season with a flourish.

Facing the Eagles on a short week will help, but the New York Giants have to be more positive Offensively to make sure they are competitive. Tommy DeVito has made a name for himself in Gotham, but the Giants Quarter Back is still learning his craft and the team will need to lean on Saquon Barkley at Running Back.

Last week was disappointing for the Giants Offensive Line, but they will be expecting more out of Barkley against this Eagles Defensive Line that has been giving up some significant yards per carry in recent games. In their surprising Monday Night Football loss, the Eagles did allow Seattle to move the ball on the ground and the New York Giants will believe they can do the same.

Keeping the pressure off the shoulders of Tommy DeVito is so important for the New York Giants if they are going to produce a competitive game. You cannot expect DeVito to be able to carry the Giants with his arm as any time he is in obvious passing situations there will be pass rush pressure all around him.

The lack of strong Receiving options might not help, even against this struggling and banged up Eagles Secondary and Tommy DeVito and the Giants Offensive unit need to keep this close on the scoreboard.

If not things could quickly escalate against the New York Giants, even if the Philadelphia Eagles have not been at their best of late with three games in a row dropped. Earning the Number 1 Seed will no longer be a concern, but the Eagles need to win out and hope Dallas do not if they are going to win the NFC East.

Back to back road losses will have stung, but the Eagles are looking to get back to basics and perhaps freshen up some of the play-calling on the Offensive side of the ball. The team have struggled for a consistent running attack, and that is a major problem for the Eagles considering how much they rely on that to open up the passing lanes.

Jalen Hurts has been hurt at Quarter Back, which has perhaps contributed to the poor outings produced by the Eagles, and he is going to be facing an improved and hard-working New York Secondary. Throwing against the Giants has been tough, but DeVonta Smith is going to be ready to go for Philadelphia, which is important, and the Philadelphia Eagles may be able to bounce back after facing a tough run of games in their schedule.

The Quarter Back is well protected and the Eagles Defensive unit may be able to make one or two big plays against Tommy DeVito to give the home team and opportunity to win by a wide margin.

Philadelphia have won four in a row against the New York Giants and three of those wins have been by at least 24 points.

Covering this mark will be tough, but the Eagles may have enough on the Defensive side of the ball to set the team up to do that.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

College Football Bowl Picks Part One 2023 (December 16-26)

There was plenty of controversy attached to the final four teams selected to make the PlayOffs as the Committee decided to ignore a Power 5 Conference Champion that had put together an unbeaten season.

The Florida State Seminoles were sickened by that turn of events with the suggestion the PlayOff Committee chose to move past them on account of how they BELIEVE the Seminoles would perform rather than giving them a chance.

In previous years they have picked schools with injuries to Quarter Backs, but this time there were enough options that the Committee felt justified in picking unbeaten Michigan and Washington and adding the SEC and Big 12 Champions too. All of this will be a moot point at the end of next season with an expanded PlayOff format, but you can expect to hear much more about the final four selected if we do not get two very competitive Semi Final games.

It will also be interesting to see how Florida State get on when they face the Georgia Bulldogs, another team disappointed to be left out. The Bulldogs have even had a State Senator calling for that Bowl Game to be considered part of the College Football PlayOff, but we are where we are in 2023.

The Bowl Games are going be split in two threads as usual and the College Football PlayOff Picks will be in the second thread that covers the back half of Bowl season.

Picks will be added to this thread between now and Boxing Day.

Ohio Bobcats vs Georgia Southern Eagles Pick: They may feel a touch fortunate to have earned a Bowl opportunity after the Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) produced a 0.500 season. They earned their sixth win relatively quickly, but the Eagles ended the regular season with four losses in a row and Georgia Southern were beaten in their Bowl Game last year.

They are facing the Ohio Bobcats (9-3) who only just missed out on playing in the MAC Championship Game having finished behind the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks within their Division.

The opening weekend of Bowl Games is not always an ideal position for teams with the limited preparation time they can put together on the field. That can have an impact on teams, while the Transfer Portal has opened and some teams will have key players leaving schools as they look ahead to the next step in their career.

It is going to have an impact on the Ohio State Bobcats and has been the main reason they opened as favourites, but go into the Bowl Game as the underdog. Kurtis Rourke has had a strong career as the Bobcats Quarter Back and he displayed dual-threat ability out of the position, but he has entered the Transfer Portal and that mean Parker Navarro is going to have start this Bowl Game.

He has had very limited experience on the field in 2023 and Navarro will not have an easy match up in this Bowl Game, although it is important to know that he can lean on the Ohio Defensive unit and so avoiding mistakes is important. The expectation is that Parker Navarro will be able to use his legs as much as his arm and that should see Ohio move the ball, although they will lack some consistency.

It has been something that the Bobcats have dealt with all season so anything that Parker Navarro can give the team will be making sure that he does not lose this Bowl Game.

Instead it could be the Bobcats Defensive unit that is able to step up and keep this game competitive against a Georgia Southern team that will be lacking some confidence.

Four losses in a row will do that and the Eagles may struggle to establish the run against this Ohio Defensive Line which has clamped down on the run all season.

They will lean on Davis Brin at Quarter Back after he transferred to the Eagles after spending four years with Tulsa and he has become a leader for Georgia Southern. He has thrown for over 3400 yards this season and 22 Touchdown passes, although Brin's criticism is that he has made too many mistakes.

He will earn his numbers in this Bowl Game, but throwing out of third and long situations will make it difficult for Davis Brin to avoid those mistakes. The Quarter Back will be facing a Ohio Secondary that have made plenty of big plays in the passing game, while the Bobcats will put some pressure on Brin when he steps back to throw out of obvious passing situations.

Losing the starting Quarter Back is blow, but the Ohio Bobcats are 25-13 against the spread as the underdog over the last several seasons. Having more than a Field Goal in their favour in this Bowl Game looks the right play to get Bowl Season underway.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs New Mexico State Aggies Pick: A 10-3 record was good enough to take the New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) into the Conference-USA Championship Game, but an injury to Quarter Back Diego Pavia contributed to the defeat against the Liberty Flames.

That loss ended a run of eight wins in a row and that includes the Aggies winning on the road at SEC Auburn Tigers.

Diego Pavia looks like he will be able to suit up for this Isleta New Mexico Bowl against the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) who were never as competitive as they would have liked in the Mountain West Conference. Three losses in a row to end the regular season meant the Bulldogs finished in the middle of the pack, although it was overall another good season for Fresno State with eight wins on the board.

The only negative may be that they were not able to secure at least one more win that would have given them a shot at winning double digit games when taking part in the Bowl Game.

Head Coach Jeff Tedford has left his role as he deals with health issues and there is some question about motivation for a team that may have been targeting a 'better' Bowl Game. The Bulldogs do have an opportunity to make some strong Offensive plays behind Quarter Back Mikey Keene who has over 2500 passing yards with 21 Touchdowns thrown.

Mikey Keene should be given some support from the running game against this Aggies Defensive Line, while there are one or two holes in the Secondary that can be exploited. Avoiding Interceptions will be important, but Keene should have a decent outing and that will give New Mexico State something to think about.

The pressure may be on the Bulldogs to keep up on the scoreboard with the expectation Diego Pavia is going to be on the field to lead the Aggies at Quarter Back.

As the season as wore on, Fresno State have found it more and more difficult to play the run and that is going to be a massive problem against this New Mexico State Offensive unit. Head Coach Jerry Kill has spoken of the toughness of his Quarter Back and that should mean Diego Pavia continues to offer a dual-threat out of the position, which can only aid the Aggies when it comes to establishing the run.

The expectation is that the Aggies will be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and that should help Diego Pavia in running play-action and attacking this Secondary. The Fresno State Secondary numbers have not been bad during the three game losing run, but that may have plenty to do with the fact they have not been able to slow the ground game rather than any real improvement in level of play compared to what we have seen overall.

The Bowl Game is going to feel like a home one for the Aggies, which should help too, and they have thrived as a favourite by going 12-3 against the spread in the last fifteen times they have been in that spot. Controlling the clock and perhaps picking up a turnover or two should give New Mexico State the edge in this Bowl Game and they can win and cover.

Boise State Broncos vs UCLA Bruins Pick: Andy Avalos was fired as Head Coach of the Boise State Broncos (8-5) the day after the team had moved back to 5-5. Spencer Danielson took over as Interim Head Coach, but the Interim tag was removed after the team won three more games in a row and won the Mountain West Conference Championship.

The removal of the previous Head Coach will lead to players leaving and the Broncos are going to be without Taylen Green, the starting Quarter Back who will be playing with Arkansas next season. He can be a dual-threat at the position, but Green has not been able to match his numbers from 2022 and the Quarter Back had 11 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions this year compared with 14 and 6 last season.

Boise State will likely be starting CJ Tiller at Quarter Back and this feels a big spot to throw in a Freshman who has not thrown a single pass in his College Football career. There are big hopes for Tiller in Boise State, but he will be facing a UCLA Bruins (7-5) Defensive unit that was key in getting the team into a Bowl Game.

The problem for CJ Tiller and the Broncos Offense is that they do not match up that well with the Bruins on this side of the ball. Having an experienced Quarter Back would perhaps help, although Boise State may be hoping the lack of tape around Tiller may just surprise the Bruins.

While the Boise State Broncos will be trying to establish the run, they are going to be running into a tough Bruins Defensive Line, albeit one missing Laiatu Latu who has begun to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft. The Broncos have been strong at piling up the yards on the ground in their four game winning run, but UCLA have to be expected to sell out to defend up front and see if the inexperienced Tiller can beat them through the air.

CJ Tiller should be well protected and there are issues in the Bruins Secondary, but the Quarter Back may take a bit more time to allow routes to develop. That will see the pressure counting down on Tiller and you have to believe he will make one or two mistakes as he begins his College career.

They can make up for this one the other side of the ball where the Broncos Defensive unit have stood tall on their way to winning the Mountain West Conference.

There has to be a confidence that the Broncos can keep their team competitive against the UCLA Bruins who lost three of their last four games to end the regular season. Much like Boise State, UCLA have had issues at Quarter Back and Dante Moore has entered the Transfer Portal, which means Ethan Garbers will likely be given the start.

He does have more experience than CJ Tiller, but Ethan Garbers could also be throwing from third and long spots with the Broncos Defensive Line likely to clamp down on the run. Ethan Garbers will then be throwing into a Boise State Secondary that has played well down the stretch, while the Broncos pass rush is likely going to create some havoc in this game.

The Broncos are a very strong underdog to back in recent years and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten Bowl Games when given points.

With the Bruins at 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the favourite, taking the points looks the play in this LA Bowl Game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs California Golden Bears Pick: The Big 12 Conference will have a different feel in 2024 without the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners who are moving onto the SEC. The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) tried to play spoiler for the Longhorns in the final regular season game, but were blown out on the road and finished the season at 0.500 with one more opportunity to put a winning record on the board.

Next season could be one in which the Red Raiders target the very top of the Big 12 Conference and earning a spot in the expanded College Football PlayOff. Having Tahj Brooks agreeing to come back at Running Back is very important for the Red Raiders and they are the favourites in this Bowl Game when facing the California Golden Bears (6-6) who are also trying to win one more game to end the year with a winning record of their own.

It has been a bit of a streaky season for the Golden Bears who had lost four in a row and looked they were going to miss out on the Bowl Season, but California rallied to win three games in a row, including an upset of the UCLA Bruins in the final regular season game.

Fernando Mendoza has to be given a lot of credit for the way he has performed at Quarter Back in his first season with the team and he did end up with almost 1500 passing yards and 14 Touchdowns thrown. That's a good return from seven games and the three game winning run will certainly give Mendoza further confidence as he prepares to play his first Bowl Game.

Mistakes have been made, which cannot be a surprise considering the relative inexperience of the Quarter Back, but Mendoza may be able to lean on Jaydn Ott at Running Back to aid him in his bid to keep the chains moving. There are big ambitions held by Ott who had a strong year running the ball in 2023 and he should be able to have success against this Texas Tech Defensive Line that looked worn down towards the end of the regular season.

Keeping the team in third and manageable should make life that much more comfortable for Fernando Mendoza.

The Red Raiders will be leaning on their own big name Running Back Tahj Brooks as they look to end the season on a high after seeing the three game winning run snapped by the Texas Longhorns. It might be tougher for Brooks considering how well the California Defensive Line were performing at the end of the regular season and that may make things more difficult for Behren Morton at Quarter Back.

It has not been an eye-catching season from Behren Morton, but he has played well enough and the Quarter Back is going to be throwing against a Golden Bears Secondary that has had some holes. However, the Transfer Portal may mean Morton is without some of the key Receivers that the Red Raiders would have used through much of the season and so you do have to question whether they can have the kind of success that may have been expected.

The Quarter Back may also find himself under some pass rush pressure, which could lead to the mistakes and turnovers that may give the Golden Bears the edge.

Earning a winning season will be a motivation for both of these teams, but California seem to be quite convinced about their chances of earning the upset.

The Golden Bears are 30-16 against the spread in their last forty-six in that spot and being back in a Bowl Game for the first time in four years is clearly going to be inspiring California for a full effort.

Taking the points with the underdog in the Independence Bow looks to be the right side of this one.

Tuesday 19th December

Marshall Thundering Herd vs UTSA Roadrunners Pick: A win in their final regular season game has just about gotten the Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) over the line to become Bowl eligible. However, it has been far from an ideal build up for this Bowl Game and they are a significant underdog when facing the UTSA Roadrunners (8-4).

The Roadrunners finished with a 7-1 record in the American Athletic Conference and that mean narrowly missing out on a place in the Championship Game.

No matter, UTSA comfortably earned Bowl eligibility and the players will be looking to write their names into school history by becoming the first to win a Bowl Game.

They will have to respect the fact that the Thundering Herd's Defensive Line were playing at a solid level to close out the regular season, although UTSA will also be confident in what their own Offensive Line brings to the field. That battle at the line of scrimmage will be key, if only to ensure Frank Harris is given time at the Quarter Back position to make his plays down the field.

It will be an emotional evening for Frank Harris and his top Receiving option, Joshua Cephus, as the senior players call time on their College career. These two should be able to produce a big game for the Roadrunners against a struggling Marshall Secondary and that will certainly give UTSA confidence that they can complete what has been a successful time for the school.

Covering the spread will not be easy, but UTSA might be catching Marshall at a good time with the Thundering Herd losing their starting Quarter Back to the Transfer Portal. Cam Fancher had 11 Touchdown passes with 11 Interceptions, but his decision to move on has been met with some controversy, and mainly out of Head Coach Charles Huff's comments.

Charles Huff said Fancher has been 'miserable' and received plenty of pushback for that.

He will be hoping that Cole Pennington can help change the headlines- the son of Chad Pennington threw 6 Interceptions when playing relief of the starting Quarter Back and he has yet to throw a Touchdown pass, which means it could be a tough day for the Thundering Herd when it comes to moving the chains.

They would love to lean on a running game and hope Rasheen Ali can get something going on the ground, but it has not been easy to do that against this UTSA Defensive Line. Add in the fact they are not likely to give Cole Pennington that much respect and the Roadrunners may choose to sell out to stop the run and see if the inexperienced Quarter Back can do something special.

Throwing against this Secondary will be challenging for Pennington and Interceptions will likely give UTSA an opportunity to create short fields and, ultimately, pull clear of the Thundering Herd.

Bowl Games can be tough to call, but UTSA can make history with a win and a cover in this one.

Friday 22nd December

UCF Knights vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: A first season in a Power 5 Conference has come with some ups and downs for the UCF Knights (6-6), but they still have an opportunity to put a winning record on the board.

With the Big 12 Conference shaking up next year, the Knights have made it clear that the target in 2024 is putting together a strong season that will end with a place in the expanded PlayOff format.

Building momentum with a Bowl win is the aim as the Knights prepare to face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) who lost two of their last three regular season games. Those defeats to the Clemson Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs will not have dented the confidence as the Yellow Jackets who have made themselves Bowl eligible for the first time since 2018.

It should mean they are plenty motivated, and the Yellow Jackets will feel they can do enough Offensively to remain competitive.

Much will depend on the Offensive Line being able to establish the run and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets should be able to do that, even against a Knights Defensive Line that performed pretty well down the stretch. Keeping things moving on the ground and controlling the clock and the rhythm of this Bowl Game, while also keeping Haynes King out of pressurised situatuons.

The Quarter Back will have some success, but throwing against this Knights Secondary has been a tough task for many Quarter Backs this season. It should be a challenge for Haynes King, who has to be aware of the turnover creating ability of this Knights Defensive unit.

While the Knights Defensive Line showed some toughness to clamp down on the run down the stretch, it has been a problem for the Yellow Jackets Defensive Line all season. It is going to be a real surprise if Georgia Tech are able to do much better in this Bowl Game against a UCF Offensive Line that has really enjoyed being able to get into their run blocking, while having a dual-threat Quarter Back makes it that much tougher to slow down UCF.

John Rhys Plumlee admits he is not at full health after dealing with injury through the season, but he should be playing in front of the chains. Enough has been displayed to believe he can make one or two decent plays in the passing game, while Plumlee has looked after the ball much more effectively than Haynes King.

In September 2022, UCF were able to get the better of Georgia Tech and they ended up pulling away for a 17 point win- this one is expected to be closer, but the UCF Knights might have the superior balance Offensively and are likely to be a little more consistent running the ball as they earn a Bowl win and a winning record for the 2023 season.

Saturday 23rd December

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick: Two teams with the same 6-6 record meet in this Bowl Game and there should be plenty of motivation for both the Northern Illinois Huskies and Arkansas State Red Wolves as they try and produce a winning season.

Neither of these schools can really say they have had a lot of success in Bowl Games and that should give the players further motivation.

It is especially the case for the Northern Illinois Huskies who have not won a Bowl Game since knocking off the Red Wolves back in 2011. They have lost seven Bowl Games since that last victory and the Huskies come into this game as the underdog.

They are being given enough points to be considered competitive and the feeling is that the Huskies can make those points count even in a losing effort.

Rocky Lombardi is a veteran College Football Quarter Back and he continues to lead the way for the Northern Illinois Huskies. However, Lombardi's primary role may be making sure he hands the ball to Antario Brown at Running Back and the Huskies will be looking to lean on Brown and the Offensive Line.

Both have been operating very successfully at the end of the regular season and they are facing an Arkansas State Defensive Line which has had some significant difficulties in clamping down on the run. Antario Brown will be looking to keep the Huskies in front of the chains, which should only make things easier for a veteran like Lombardi at Quarter Back.

The key for the underdog is not to force the game to rest on Rocky Lombardi's arm, although there are one or two holes in the Red Wolves Secondary that can be exploited.

Northern Illinois will feel they can move the ball on the ground, but that task may be tougher when the Arkansas State Red Wolves have the ball.

The Huskies ended the regular season with the Defensive Line playing the run about as well as they have this season and they will certainly be looking to force the Red Wolves to become a little one-dimensional with the play-calling.

Arkansas State will be confident in the ability of their young Quarter Back, Jaylen Raynor who has won Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference. However, this could be a tough day to make consistent plays if the team are not able to run the ball as well as they would like, which would leave Jaylen Raynor throwing into a Huskies Secondary that have played well in recent games.

He is clearly a capable Quarter Back and will still have some solid numbers, but the lack of balance could be evident and it may see the Northern Illinois Huskies continue their dominance of the series with Arkansas State.

Taking the points with the underdog looks to be the play in what should be a competitive Bowl Game.

Air Force Falcons vs James Madison Dukes Pick: If they had remained unbeaten, James Madison Dukes (11-1) might have been given the opportunity to impress in a 'bigger' Bowl Game than the Armed Forces Bowl. Regardless, this is the first time the Dukes will be taking part in a Bowl Game and that has to provide plenty of motivation alone, especially as they were not going to eligible at the start of the season due to NCAA rules regarding former FCS schools moving into the FBS.

They are facing the Air Force Falcons (8-4) who were another team looking like they may have been invited into a much more glamorous Bowl Game than this one when they opened the season with eight straight wins. Four losses in a row to end the regular season ended those hopes, although the Falcons will know the importance of playing in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The Falcons beat the Baylor Bears in this Bowl last year, but they are the underdog against James Madison.

One of the main reasons for that is that Air Force look like they match up pretty poorly on the Offensive side of the ball with this Dukes Defensive unit.

The Falcons want to run the ball over and over again, and Zac Larrier is asked to manage the game at Quarter Back. The extra preparation time should help James Madison, while the Dukes Defensive Line have been stout up front and been able to clamp down on the run.

At the same time, the Dukes Secondary have not played the pass nearly as well as the Defensive Line have played the run, but Air Force are not built to take advantage and that should give the narrow favourite an opportunity.

James Madison have struggled to run the ball effectively on the other side of the ball and they will be relying on Quarter Back Jordan McCloud to move the chains. He has entered the Transfer Portal, but McCloud is expected to start this Bowl Game as he has yet to tip his hat as to where he will be playing in 2024.

This looks a good chance for Jordan McCloud to sign off as a Dukes player in the right way and he should be able to attack this Air Force Secondary with plenty of confidence.

Pressure around the Quarter Back from the Falcons pass rush and a ball-hawking team that may give up big yards, but who will turn the ball over, makes this a more competitive game. Jordan McCloud will have to be aware of the situations as they develop, but he should have enough success to give the Dukes the edge.

A few of the Dukes players might be leaving in the Transfer Portal, but they would love to sign off with another history making performance. That motivation will be hard to shift and James Madison may to just enough to win this Bowl Game and cover the relatively small number as the favourite.

Northwestern Wildcats vs Utah Utes Pick: Winning records have already been secured for the 2023 season, but winning a Bowl Game would place a neat bow for a number of players that may be departing at the end of the year.

The Utah Utes (8-4) will enter the game as the favourites against the Northwestern Wildcats (7-5).

It had been touch and go whether the Wildcats would be able to produce the kick needed that would take them into Bowl eligibility, but four wins in their last five games helped them not only secure that place, but also ensured a winning season. They will know they are going to be tested on the Offensive side of the ball against this Utah Defensive unit, if only for the poor match up Northwestern have, but the confidence of the finish makes them dangerous.

Running the ball against this Utah Defensive Line will be very difficult, especially as Northwestern have not been able to do that with a lot of consistency anyway. That means it will be up to Quarter Back Ben Bryant to make the plays with his arm, but he has been successful doing that and has guided the Wildcats very well.

He should have more time to make throws down the field and the Utah Secondary were guilty of giving up huge yardage through the air. Ben Bryant has to avoid the Interceptions that have perhaps been a bit of a problem for him, but this Utes team have not been turning the ball over in the air while allowing almost 300 yards per game and it should mean Northwestern have opportunities.

If this was a usual regular season game, Utah would feel they have the balanced Offensive unit that could really make things awkward for the Wildcats.

Quarter Back Bryson Barnes has entered the Transfer Portal, but will play, while other players have decided they are going to join the NFL Draft and will perhaps be looking to focus on that rather than this Bowl Game. Even then, Utah should be able to establish the run to make things a little more comfortable for Barnes, who will have a chance to make big plays into a Secondary that gave up almost 250 passing yards per game as the season wound down.

However, the Wildcats might bend, but they have been aggressive in their coverage and it has led to Interceptions and Barnes might end up being forced into a mistake or two, which can be critical to the outcome of this Bowl Game.

These two teams have had contrasting results in recent Bowl Games- Northwestern have won four in a row, while Utah have lost four in a row. It was the Wildcats who came out on top in December 2018 in the Holiday Bowl against the Utah Utes, while the latter also had an inconsistent conclusion to the regular season.

With players thinking to what is ahead, the underdog Wildcats may be able to make enough plays through the air to keep this one close. Winning the turnover battle will be important, but Northwestern can do that and make sure the points they are being given are made to count.

Tuesday 26th December

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Bowling Green Falcons Pick: The only team that finished the regular season with a losing record and who have been invited into a Bowl Game is the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7). They are not going to apologise for being given this opportunity though and the Golden Gophers will enter the Bowl as the favourite.

They are facing the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) who have already secured a winning season, but who would love to round 2023 off with a Bowl victory.

In recent years, Bowling Green have struggled to do that so there is a big motivation for the players involved as the school looks for a first post-season victory since 2014. Things have been a lot different for the Minnesota Golden Gophers who have won six Bowl Games in a row, including all four under Head Coach PJ Fleck who is now only a couple more appearances away from taking Minnesota to a school record tying of seven Bowl Games.

The Head Coach is one that clearly gets the best out of his players and those additional Bowl practices have certainly paid off.

However, the unexpected Bowl invite has meant a few players are not going to be involved for the Golden Gophers, including starting Quarter Back Athan Kaliakmanis who has entered the Transfer Portal. It has given Cole Kramer an opportunity to finish his College career with a start in a Bowl Game, although the lack of time in competitive action this season will be a slight concern.

This is a level down from the Conference schedule, but the Golden Gophers may still find it challenging Offensively against this Falcons Defensive unit. It all begins up front where the Defensive Line have been playing very well to end the season and clamping down on the run, which is a problem for Minnesota's Offensive Line who have not been opening big holes on the ground this season.

This will mean Cole Kramer is being asked to do a bit more, which in turn may expose some of the lack of experience of playing in the regular season in competitive environments. The Quarter Back will not be able to hold the ball for too long whenever he drops back to throw, while the Bowling Green Secondary have been very good at turning the ball over without giving up huge yards through the air.

Minnesota should still have some success, but they are not expected to blow past Bowling Green and that should make the points being given to the underdog look all the more appealing.

Terion Stewart may have a real chance to make his mark on this Bowl Game with the Running Back attacking a Minnesota Defensive Line that was worn down at the end of the regular season. For most of 2023 it has been tough for the Golden Gophers to contain the run, but they were allowing huge gains to be picked up at the end of the regular season and this may allow Stewart to keep the Falcons in third and manageable spots.

It should make life a bit more comfortable for Connor Bazelak at Quarter Back, although the key will be to ensure he avoids turning the ball over and offering up short fields for the Golden Gophers.

The Minnesota Secondary have decent numbers, but that is also partly down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball right at them and pick up big plays. A lack of a pass rush should mean Bazelak has time time the pocket that has not always been there for him this season and the Falcons can keep this one close.

Bowling Green actually beat Minnesota on the road in September 2021 so they should not be intimidated by the challenge, even if the Golden Gophers have been very impressive in Bowl Games in recent years.

With the points being given to them, the Falcons can make enough Offensive plays to keep this one close, even if they do come up short at the end.

MY PICKS: Ohio Bobcats + 3.5 Points @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

New Mexico State Aggies - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boise State Broncos + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

California Golden Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UTSA Roadrunners - 11.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

UCF Knights - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Northern Illinois Huskies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

James Madison Dukes - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Northwestern Wildcats + 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Bowling Green Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Bowl Part One Update: 4-5, - 1.71 Units (9 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)

Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)