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Saturday, 21 October 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Jack Catterall vs Jorge Linares (October 21st)

Prior to an injury to Dan Azeez, this looked to be a big weekend in the Light Heavyweight Division for British Boxing fans.

The hope is that the Joshua Buatsi vs Azeez fight can be rearranged before the end of this calendar year, but it does remove what looked to be the best fight of the weekend. Boxxer have kept the show going by moving from the O2 Arena to York Hall and with a solid Cruiserweight domestic clash main eventing instead.

There is also a double header from the United Kingdom and United States on DAZN as we begin to see some contenders emerge in the Light Welterweight and Welterweight Divisions.



Jack Catterall vs Jorge Linares

In another universe, Jack Catterall would perhaps be the defending Undisputed Light Welterweight Champion of the world who is preparing for a huge fight against Devin Haney later in the year.

However, in ours, the British fighter has yet to fight his way back into a position to challenge for the World Titles after controversially losing a Decision to Josh Taylor in February 2022. The potential rematch fell through a number of times and has forced inactivity on Jack Catterall and he is only going to be involved in his second fight since that defeat and still looks some way away from having another crack at winning the fragmented titles in the 140 pound Division.

Since that loss to Taylor, Jack Catterall has linked up with Eddie Hearn and Matchroom and he was a comfortable winner over Darragh Foley in his debut for his new promoter back in May. There is no doubting that Catterall needs to be more active and so a relatively quick return has been made, and he is going to be a big favourite to see off faded veteran Jorge Linares.

The 38 year old has had plenty of exciting, happy nights in England, but Jorge Linares has lost three in a row and was back at the Lightweight limit in recent outings. He has made one brief stop in the Light Welterweight Division, but that ended really badly for Jorge Linares who was Stopped in the First Round by Pablo Cesar Cano and it does feel the Venezuelan has been asked to head to Liverpool in a bid to give Jack Catterall every chance to impress.

His naturally bigger size and being the fresher fighter gives Jack Catterall a big edge in this bout.

Jorge Linares might throw caution to the wind knowing this is his last big opportunity in all likelihood, but it will be tough to steer clear of the Catterall counters. The British fighter will be urged to get forward once the early Linares threat is extinguished and it feels like the promoter has put this fight together to build some momentum behind Jack Catterall who can force the Stoppage.


There is every hope that the Mikael Lawal vs Isaac Chamberlain headliner at York Hall could be a real banger, but the oddsmakers look to have got it about right with the prices.

Instead the other selection from the day will come from the late show being broadcasted by DAZN from the United States.

Alexis Rocha and Giovani Santillan are in a loaded Welterweight Division, but one that could look really different in the months ahead.

Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr may meet one more time for the Undisputed World Titles, but both are soon expected to look for new challenges at Light Middleweight.

We already have Interim World Champions with the IBF and WBC and a Regular WBA World Champion, but the winner of this one could very much be in line to compete for any vacant WBO World Title in the months ahead.

That means there is plenty on the line for two American fighters who have a single loss between them.

It was a loss suffered by Alexis Rocha, but he has bounced back to win seven fights in a row since the setback against Rashidi Ellis and five of those have been in Stoppages. The win over Blair Cobbs is the one that stands out the most for Rocha and he looks to be the bigger, stronger fighter in this one.

In a potential firefight, those are attributes that could stand out, although the resiliency of Giovani Santillan has to be respected.

He is also unbeaten, which will give Santillan more confidence, but this looks a step up that may be one too far and Alexis Rocha can come through a fun fight.

MY PICKS: Jack Catterall to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Alexis Rocha to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 49-85, - 16.37 Units (247 Units Staked, - 6.63% Yield)

Saturday, 14 October 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Tim Tszyu vs Brian Mendoza (October 14th)

There have been some exceptional nights of Boxing throughout 2023 and fans have been treated to some memorable endings.

Another one can be added to the list- Leigh Wood's finish of Josh Warrington in a fight where it felt he was massively behind on the cards and looking like he had nothing left in the tank in the Featherweight Division really would have gotten many out of their seats.

Leigh Wood is very likely to be moving up into the Super Featherweight Division after this victory. He looked tired at the 126 pound limit and at this stage of his career it would make sense to have the extra pounds to work with.

An obvious fight to make would be against unbeaten Joe Cordina and it certainly would be one that sells out the City Ground, where Leigh Wood has campaigned to fight for the last eighteen months. Having a bit of time off after the tough fight last weekend would make sense and doing that fight at the home of Nottingham Forest could work at the end of May/early June.

People will also make a case for a rematch with Josh Warrington, who has also spoken of perhaps needing to move up in weight and who showed he has something left in the tank having largely dominated the fight in Sheffield before switching off right at the end of the Seventh Round.

Those two names have to be the frontrunners for the next fight for Leigh Wood who deserves his night out in the Football Stadium in his own City. The rematch with Warrington perhaps makes sense for both ahead of the Cordina World Title fight, but Leigh Wood will have the options in front of him after another stunning win in a fight he looked set to lose having done the same against Michael Conlan last year.

Gilberto Ramirez was also in action last week and looked pretty good in his Cruiserweight debut against Joe Smith Jr, although the latter also showed plenty to suggest he will have more opportunities to get into position to become a two weight World Champion.

Most of the attention will be on Ramirez who has perhaps flattered to deceive in his career, but who looks like he has the size and athletic ability to be a very strong player in this new Division. Criticisms of his attitude are perhaps harsh, but Gilberto Ramirez needs to face a consistent level of opponent having been guilty of too many easy touches in his forty-six previous fights.

Cruiserweight has some very tough fighters currently holding World Titles or in contention to challenge for one of those Belts and so Gilberto Ramirez will have to be focused and willing to put in the hard work needed to win another World Title.


October is a funny month for fans of the sport- there are some crossover events that may draw the attention of the casual fan and those are perhaps making the biggest headlines, but around those cards there are some very good looking fights.

This week we have a couple of Unification bouts in the Middleweight and Light Middleweight Divisions.

The 160 pound Division has long been a top one in the Boxing world, but it looks about as open as it has for a long time with a new King looking to be crowned. It feels possible with the Champions needing on another and the first step to crowning the new star in the Middleweight Division will begin this weekend.

Calling the Light Middleweight World Title fight between Tim Tszyu and Brian Mendoza a 'Unification' may not be technically true, but the latter is the Interim WBC Champion with questions about what Jermell Charlo will do still being asked after his bid to unseat Canelo Alvarez at Super Middleweight.

The winner of that one will certainly be considered the top contender to Charlo if he was to return to the Division in which he was Undisputed before choosing to take on Canelo, although the IBF Mandatory has been called and the Texan has to really think about what the future holds for him.



Tim Tszyu vs Brian Mendoza

After all of the successes his father had in the sport, we are still not sure what kind of ceiling Tim Tszyu has, although most will have to accept that he is still improving fight after fight.

He was upgraded from Interim WBO World Champion into the full Champion when Jermell Charlo chose to step away from his Mandatory and instead face Canelo Alvarez.

No one should think Charlo was 'scared' or 'ducked' considering the obvious motivations in fight a star like Canelo, but giving Tim Tszyu more time to develop and improve could end up backfiring on the American if those two are to ever meet.

All Tim Tszyu can do is to keep on winning and he will be the favourite to beat Brian Mendoza in front of his home Australian fans.

However, the 29 year old has to be given a lot of respect having already produced one of the big upsets of 2023.

Losing to young, talented Jesus Ramos in September 2021 would have perhaps had some believing Brian Mendoza would struggle to move above gate-keeper level, but he has beaten former World Champion Jeison Rosario and then followed up with the huge upset of Sebastian Fundora in April to pick up this Interim World Title.

The Seventh Round KO of Fundora will have given Brian Mendoza a lot of confidence and he does feel he has the power to stop the Tim Tszyu train in its tracks.

You can understand the confidence, but Tszyu has shown a little better defence in his last few fights and will give just as good as he gets.

There is no doubting Brian Mendoza's toughness and he did take some solid shots from Sebastian Fundora. It could mean we are in for a very good watch on Saturday and Mendoza will be dangerous, especially early on, but Tim Tszyu has shown he is the kind of fighter that can break down and grind down opponents, while having a decent chin of his own.

He may have to weather a bit of a storm at times, but the Australian is a fighter who looks to be on the up and not as defensively open as Sebastian Fundora. Brian Mendoza will still believe he has the fight changing power to get the job done again, but there were moments in that win over Fundora where he looked to be getting fatigued and that is a potential issue.

Tim Tszyu is someone who will make Brian Mendoza work hard and it may see him grind down his solid opponent and the WBO World Champion can turn the screw over the second half of the Twelve Rounds scheduled to force a Stoppage.


If things go as planned, the top of the Super Bantamweight Division could have a huge hole at the end of the calendar year.

Naoya Inoue is going to be looking to end 2023 as Undisputed Champion in a second Division and most would expect The Monster to move up another weight class if he is able to do that. This could leave the door open to the likes of Sam Goodman to fight for a World Title pretty quickly in 2024.

Losing on Saturday on this undercard would knock him out of his current Ranking place with the WBO and IBF where he is the top contender to fight for a World Title, but Goodman should have enough to see off Miguel Flores who is heading Down Under behind a thirteen month layoff.

Miguel Flores has four losses on his record and three of those have been inside the distance, although his last outing was a Draw.

Sam Goodman does not have an overwhelming KO record, and has needed the cards in four of his last five wins, but he should be able to turn the screw over the Twelve Rounds set for this bout. The 31 year old Flores is going to be game, but that might work to Sam Goodman's favour and he can break down the veteran as the Australian looks to impress ahead of a potential World Title bid in the next few months.


There was a time when the Middleweight Division would have featured some of the very biggest names in Boxing and very few times in history will the Division lack the star power it is doing at this moment.

Things could change quickly, but has a Unification in the Division gone as far under the radar as this one in the United States?

Zhanibek Alimkhanuly is trying to position himself as the natural successor to compatriot Triple G and talk about being some 'boogeyman' at 160 pounds is perhaps just to try and build some hype. British fighter Denzel Bentley pushed the WBO Champion all the way to the scorecards, but he was back to blitzing opponents in his crushing win over Steven Butler last time out.

Now Alimkhanuly has an opportunity to add the IBF World Title to his collection when facing Vincenzo Gaultieri who is also an unbeaten World Champion after beating Esquiva Falcao for a vacant Title in July.

Credit has to be given to Vincenzo Gaultieiri for winning as a slight underdog on that day, but keeping off someone like Zhanibek Alimkhanuly feels like a big gap to bridge.

Seven Stoppages in twenty-one wins suggests Gaultieri will not have the firepower to keep his opponent from walking forward and breaking him down and Zhanibek Alimkhanuly can continue to build his reputation with another strong Stoppage in this Unification.

The chief support on the undercard, Keyshawn Davis, is continuing his development in the Lightweight Division. Over the next twelve months, the top of the 135 pound list is going to feel very different with most believing Undisputed Champion Devin Haney is unlikely to return to the Division now he is signed on for a Light Welterweight World Title clash with Regis Prograis.

Shakur Stevenson is set to fight for a vacant WBC World Title, and there are a number of fighters in the Division who will be looking to take a shot at the American.

Keyshawn Davis is only 24 years old so has plenty of time to get ready for his own assault at World Titles and he can get the better of Nahir Albright as he continues picking up experience. The latter has been beaten twice, including against Jamaine Ortiz, but Keyshawn Davis may carry a bit more power and could force a Stoppage in the second half of this bout.


It may not be a card aimed at me, but it would be pretty difficult to ignore the crossover events that are taking place this month.

At least the card headlined by Tyson Fury and Francis Ngannou has plenty of Heavyweight action on the undercard, but this one in Manchester on Saturday is very much happy to go with YouTube 'stars'.

Tommy Fury may feel he is above that, but his future is almost certainly going to be taking on more of these 'boxers' rather than looking for professional titles.

He was controversially dropped by Jake Paul when beating the American over Eight Rounds and this one is set for Six Rounds against KSI.

A viral Knock Out will be what the fans will be hoping to see, but it would not surprise me if this is a messy Six Rounder.

KSI is a little reckless, which could leave him open for something big, but Fury has not exactly shown a lot of Knock Out power and a small interest on this one going to the cards with Tommy Fury earning the nod looks the right play.

MY PICKS: Tim Tszyu to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sam Goodman to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Zhanibek Alimkhanuly to Win Between 1-6 @ 4.33 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Keyshawn Davis to Win Between 6-10 @ 4.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Tommy Fury to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2023: 47-82, - 19.90 Units (239 Units Staked, - 8.33% Yield)

Friday, 13 October 2023

College Football Week 7 Picks 2023 (October 13-14)

We are getting into the middle of the College Football regular season and the challenges that Conference games bring to even the very best teams around will begin to whittle down the choices that the PlayOff Committee will have when it comes down to selecting their final four teams.

The Georgia Bulldogs will almost certainly be selected if they remain unbeaten or reach the SEC Championship Game without a defeat in the regular season. An improving Alabama Crimson Tide may feel they will be invited in if they can run the table and then beat the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game, especially with some of the other major Conferences unlikely to provide an unbeaten Champion.

The Pac-12 looks most likely to do that with three unbeaten teams leading the way, but by the end of Week 7 there is a chance that two of those teams are handed their first loss of the season.

We have the same situation at the top of the ACC and Big Ten right now, but the latter has their best three teams in the same Division and likely means they will be feasting on one another, while only Florida State have really looked a confident team that could remain unbeaten in the ACC compared with North Carolina and Louisville.

Perhaps a team outside of the Power 5 Conferences will be given an opportunity like the Cincinnati Bearcats were if the top Conferences struggle to offer Champions with one or fewer losses, but at this time of the season the focus has to be on game by game.

Any upset could be very difficult to overcome when the PlayOff Committee comes to choosing their final four so it is imperative for teams and Head Coaches to avoid looking too far ahead.


Stanford Cardinal @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: There is still an excitement in Boulder that has not been there for some time, but the Colorado Buffaloes (4-2) have been given a reminder of the level of expectation that Head Coach Deion Sanders has and will continue to have going forward.

The two losses to the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans have underlined the point that this is a first year project for Coach Prime and his school and that the Buffaloes still have a considerable gap to bridge. Over the coming years Colorado will be able to bring in plenty of talent who will want to play for Sanders, but the standards set by the Head Coach were noted after the narrow WIN over the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Simply put, Deion Sanders did not believe his team played up to the level he knows they can reach and even a win was not going to be enough for the Head Coach to accept any drop in standards he has set.

They play on Friday in Week 7 of the College Football season and the Colorado Buffaloes are a couple of wins away from becoming Bowl eligible. The Covid hit 2020 season saw the Buffaloes finish with a winning record in the Pac-12, although they played just four Conference games that season, and Deion Sanders will have targeted a first winning record in a full season since 2016.

Moving back to 2-2 will be important before the Buffaloes enter a Bye Week and they are favourites to do that with a victory over the Stanford Cardinal (1-4) who are in the midst of another really poor season. Troy Taylor will be given time having taken over as Head Coach from David Shaw who had overseen three losing years in a row in full seasons played by Stanford with the exception being the 2020 season.

Troy Taylor will have appreciated the extra time to prepare for this Week 7 game and Stanford will want to show they are a lot better than the heavy blowout losses to USC and Oregon have suggested. They did push the Arizona Wildcats in a single point loss at home, and the Cardinal have been on a Bye Week where they would have spent considerable time trying to clear up some of the mistakes made.

One of the big problems has been the Stanford Offensive Line, which has not opened up holes for the rushing attack to have success and who have not been any better when it comes to pass protection. It has been a long time since the Stanford Cardinal could point out to having stellar play from their Quarter Back, but neither Ashton Daniels nor Justin Lamson are being supported with very little time before the pass rush comes crashing into them.

It is a real problem when the Cardinal are becoming easy to game plan against and an inability to run the ball with any kind of consistency has left the Quarter Back, whoever that may be, in obvious passing situations. Stanford have struggled to keep the pass rushers out of the backfield and allow Receivers to run their routes down the field and it is unlikely that there will be more time when facing this Colorado puss rush in Week 7.

Despite those Offensive struggles, the Stanford Cardinal have had extra preparation time and they are facing a Buffaloes team that has struggled Defensively once moving into Conference play. The Secondary have not been helped by the continued absence of Travis Hunter and the two-way player is unlikely to be risked this week even though he is in back in practice.

Instead it will likely be up to the pass rushers to cause enough disruption to at least force some mistakes out of the Cardinal Quarter Back. The Buffaloes Defensive Line have also played the run well enough to believe they can make Stanford a little one-dimensional Offensively, and that could be key in making stops and getting the ball into the hands of the power Colorado Offensive unit.

Running the ball has been a serious problem for the Buffaloes as much as Stanford this season, but Shedeur Sanders has shown he can overcome that with his ability at Quarter Back. The numbers have been impressive, even in the step up to Pac-12 play, and even more so when you think Sanders has been given extremely limited support running the ball and is playing behind a Buffaloes Offensive Line that has resembled a turnstile at times.

Both of these aspects could be against the norm for Colorado in this home game.

Stanford have been struggling in the trenches on both sides of the ball and the Defensive Line has been gashed for some big gains on the ground, while the Cardinal pass rush has barely shown a pulse. It could mean the Buffaloes are able to have a bit more success getting in front of the chains and protecting Shedeur Sanders when he drops back to throw, and that may spell bad news for the road team.

Shedeur Sanders will have been pretty confident he could find some big plays in the passing game anyway, but being in third and manageable and just having a bit more time in the pocket could mean the Quarter Back is able to carve up Stanford.

Defensively the Buffaloes have not played well enough to be asked to cover spreads like this one, but it does feel a good match up for Colorado. They have beaten Stanford three times in a row and that was before this current group got together and Deion Sanders may get a reaction from his players after voicing his unhappiness with some of the performance last week.

As long as the Buffaloes remain focused, they should be strong enough to enter the Bye Week behind perhaps their largest win of the season.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: They are still unbeaten thanks to a strong second half showing in the victory over the Maryland Terrapins in Week 6, but the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) are not completely satisfied with their overall performances. They will be heading on the road looking to avoid a Conference upset and the Buckeyes will be trying to ignore the next game on deck.

In Week 8 the Buckeyes will be hosting the Penn State Nittany Lions, another unbeaten team not only in the Conference, but in the same Division as Ohio State. The big game with the Michigan Wolverines may yet decide which of these teams is going to represent the Big Ten East in the Championship Game, and perhaps the College Football PlayOff, but fans of the Buckeyes will know how important any defeat could potentially be when it comes to the Selection Committee.

An unbeaten Ohio State were beaten by the Purdue Boilermakers (2-4) when last visiting West Lafayette, Indiana, and it was a defeat that saw them miss out on trying to win the National Championship. Rainy conditions could be in play in Week 7 of the 2023 season, but there will be no excuses from the Ohio State Buckeyes if they were to lose again.

Much will have been made of the struggles to establish the run and Head Coach Ryan Day has admitted that his team are coming up short. They could be bolstered by a returning Treveyon Henderson this week at Running Back after producing just 62 yards on the ground in the win over the Terrapins and Henderson could be a big difference maker for the Buckeyes.

The Offensive Line has room for improvement, but did help open up 104 yards for Treveyon Henderson in the win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while this Boilermakers Defensive Line have not convinced in stopping the run. In the last three games, Purdue have allowed an average of 175 rushing yards per game and it could be an opportunity for the Buckeyes to show their Head Coach that they are ready to get back to the levels expected.

There is no doubt that the Buckeyes Offensive Line has been stronger in pass protection and being able to establish the run should just make things more comfortable for Kyle McCord who has 1375 passing yards with 8 Touchdowns this season. With teams being able to run efficiently against Purdue, the Secondary have perhaps been better of late because teams do not need to throw, rather than a massive improvement in the level of Secondary play and McCord and the Receivers should be able to put up some solid numbers.

Throwing in the conditions could be the biggest challenge, but the same will apply to the Boilermakers when they have the ball. However, the key difference is that Purdue are not expected to be able to have nearly the same success running the ball compared with Ohio State and that will heap the pressure on Hudson Card at Quarter Back.

We have yet to really see Ohio State generate a consistent pass rush, but keeping Purdue in third and long spots could see them exert plenty of pressure on this Boilermakers Offensive Line. Hudson Card was Sacked multiple times and threw a couple of Interceptions in the loss to Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 6 and he will have to be careful throwing in this Buckeyes Secondary.

Even without a huge amount of pressure being generated up front, Ohio State have held teams to under 160 passing yards this season and that has to be respected. The Buckeyes also turn the ball over with ball-hawking players picking up Interceptions when teams are trying to make big plays and this could give the Buckeyes the extra possessions to win this game and cover the spread.

It is a big line without a doubt, but the Boilermakers have lost home games to Syracuse Orange and Wisconsin Badgers by 15 and 21 points respectively and Ohio State are stronger than both. Only a loss of focus and attention turning to Penn State may see the Buckeyes allow a backdoor cover, but they will know the importance of style points and 20 point wins over Indiana Hoosiers and Maryland can be at least matched in this one as revenge is earned for the 2018 upset.


Syracuse Orange @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: The ACC is a loaded Conference, but one that could provide at least one of the College Football PlayOff teams with the kind of quality we see at the top. The best of the lot may be the Florida State Seminoles (5-0) have put up victories over the LSU Tigers and Clemson Tigers already this season.

They are hosting in Week 7 of the regular season against the Syracuse Orange (4-2) who have seen their perfect start to the season erased over their last two games. The leap to Conference play was always going to be a challenge for Syracuse, especially opening up against Clemson and the North Carolina Tar Heels, but there has to be some disappointment that the team have been as uncompetitive as they have been after starting off the 2023 season with four straight wins.

Head Coach Dino Babers will know his team need to find a way to improve in all facets of their Football if they are going to be better when facing arguably the best team in the Conference. The Orange have only scored 21 points in their two losses to the Tigers and Tar Heels, while they have not been able to contain the Offensive units faced.

Now they have to deal with a Florida State Offense which is averaging over 42 points per game for the season and that despite those tough games against the Tigers of LSU and Clemson mentioned. Neither of those teams have really been able to improve the quality of the Florida State wins so there may still be some doubters about the Seminoles, although those naysayers will not be within the locker room.

One positive for the Orange is that the Defensive Line have continued to be very productive up front- they did allow over 200 rushing yards against the North Carolina Tar Heels, but it should be noted that their opponent needed to run the ball 48 times to reach that mark and Syracuse may feel they can at least limit the damage Florida State are able to do on the ground.

The Seminoles will still make some solid running plays behind this Offensive Line, especially with the threat that Jordan Travis poses with his arm. The Quarter Back is also capable of scrambling for First Downs, and Jordan Travis has really benefited by playing behind an Offensive Line that has protected him and given him time when has dropped back to throw.

It is the reason that Jordan Travis has thrown 8 Touchdown passes with a single Interception, and also produced almost 1200 passing yards this season. After watching the Clemson Tigers and North Carolina Tar Heels make some huge plays through the air, Jordan Travis is expected to pick up where Cade Klubnik and Drake Maye have left off.

There is plenty of respect being shown to Syracuse from the Florida State side of the field and that is important to make sure the Seminoles are not dragged into a tougher game than the layers expect.

The Seminoles have won three in a row against Syracuse, although the last time they hosted them resulted in just a 3 point win for Florida State.

However, the fans will be arriving feeling plenty of confidence that their team will maintain their unbeaten start to the season.

Syracuse will be looking to try and keep the strong Florida State Offensive unit cooling down by producing long drives, but recent games have just been a struggle for the Orange on this side of the ball. They have not been able to establish the run as well as they would have liked, while falling into an early deficit has forced them away from the rush and instead needing Garrett Shrader to keep up by throwing the ball.

The Quarter Back has struggled trying to bridge the gap to the better teams in the ACC and Garrett Shrader has had just 310 passing yards in the two games against Clemson and North Carolina combined. He has 2 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions in those games and Shrader is not going to get a lot of change out of this Florida State Secondary.

He may look to make some plays with his legs to keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains, but Florida State are well aware of that threat and will likely have someone spying on Garrett Shrader whenever he drops back to throw.

After back to back blowout losses, the layers have really strengthened Syracuse's position against the spread by making them 8 point bigger underdogs than their game at the North Carolina Tar Heels. It definitely makes it harder for Florida State to cover with the backdoor left much wider, but the Seminoles will be looking for a few style points and they have won both home games this season by at least 21 points.

The feeling is that the Seminoles will be looking to just remind the rest of the ACC about their qualities by beating a team that their expected rivals have dismissed pretty easily and the home team can make enough plays to cover.


Arizona Wildcats @ Washington State Cougars Pick: Losing to a favourite is not something that will be held onto by the underdog, but losing in the manner that the Arizona Wildcats (3-3) did in Week 6 might have an adverse affect. They battled the unbeaten USC Trojans so hard and eventually were undone in Triple Overtime, and it has dropped the Wildcats to 1-2 within the Pac-12 Conference.

In the previous week, the Arizona Wildcats had pushed another unbeaten Conference rival in the Washington Huskies and it should offer the players encouragement. However, it does mean they are potentially vulnerable when heading to the Washington State Cougars (4-1) in Week 7 as Arizona continue to roll through a busy portion of their schedule.

There will also be some disappointment to shift in the Cougars locker room after seeing the unbeaten start to the season ended by the UCLA Bruins last week. The 8 point loss might not seem like it was a blowout, but the Bruins absolutely dominated the game and only a couple of big Defensive player gave the Cougars a chance to put a competitive score together.

The Cougars have beaten the Arizona Wildcats three times in a row, but they have been a touch one-dimensional Offensively this season. Eventually that could have presented a problem, like it did in the loss to the Bruins, and Washington State will need Cameron Ward to bounce back from a sub-par effort.

Running the ball has been a challenge for the Cougars Offensive Line all season and they are not expected to find a lot of room up front against the Wildcats. Even with the kind of opponents faced in the last two weeks, the Wildcats Defensive Line is restricting teams to 3.9 yards per carry over their last three games and will be expected to at least force Cameron Ward to beat them through the air.

There are some holes in the Secondary that can be exploited and Cameron Ward has been protected pretty well by the Cougars Offensive Line when he has dropped back to throw. The Quarter Back will also have noted how difficult a time Caleb Williams had last week against Arizona when held to 219 passing yards the week after Michael Penix Jr had 363 yards against this Secondary and being behind the chains will give the Wildcats a chance to try and rattle Ward.

You still have to believe that the Cougars are going to have much stronger success throwing the ball than they did last week against the Bruins, but there is every chance that the Wildcats can perhaps go score for score with this opponent.

Unlike the Washington State Cougars, Arizona should have a much better balance Offensively in this match up and that certainly makes the Wildcats extremely dangerous as long as they something left in the tank. Those games with the Washington Huskies and USC Trojans will have sapped some energy, but a balanced Offensive unit might be able to keep the Cougars guessing in this road upset bid.

There is a question mark at Quarter Back for the Wildcats having used Noah Fifita in relief of an injured Jayden de Laura with the latter still considered the starter. However, Noah Fifita has shown he can be effective playing the position and either Quarter Back is likely to be playing in third and manageable situations with the Wildcats Offensive Line likely opening up holes to establish the run against a Cougars team giving up an average of 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games.

It will ease the pass rush and Arizona will know that their Quarter Back has a good chance of putting up some big numbers against this Washington State Secondary.

The three losses in a row to Washington State are hard to ignore, but Arizona do have an opportunity to make this game very competitive and they are being given plenty of points. The Wildcats have proven they can do that in their narrow defeats to two of the top three Pac-12 teams and the Cougars might just be a little too forgiving Defensively to cover more than a Touchdown in any winning effort.


USC Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: After escaping an upset bid in Week 6, the USC Trojans (6-0) will not be playing their Conference schedule in Week 7, but instead will be looking to put a notable win on the board.

A couple of weeks ago it may have felt like a very important win, but Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2) have lost some of their shine after losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes and then being blown out by the Louisville Cardinals. They have yet to have a Bye Week this season and suggestions are that the Fighting Irish are running on fumes, although Head Coach Marcus Freeman is not one for making excuses.

It was Coaching mistakes that really cost the Fighting Irish in their defeat to Ohio State, but the Week 7 loss to the Cardinals is much harder to ignore.

Sam Hartman has played well at Quarter Back this season and threw 2 more Touchdown passes last week, but the 3 Interceptions proved to be costly against Louisville. The Fighting Irish will be confident that Hartman can bounce back in this one considering how porous the USC Trojans Defensive unit have been, although the Quarter Back will be hoping for support from the Offensive Line in establishing the run.

In their last three games, during which time Notre Dame have lost twice, the Fighting Irish have only averaged 3.8 yards per carry and they are facing a Trojans Defensive Line which has been pretty stout against the run. They have held recent opponents to just 4.1 yards per carry and the Trojans may be keen on making the Fighting Irish rely on the pass and try to create the turnovers that Louisville did in their victory in Week 7.

The Secondary have been able to find some Interceptions, but USC have given up some huge plays through the air and that will have to be improved if they are going to win the Pac-12 and perhaps earn a spot in the College Football PlayOff. A loss to the Fighting Irish would be difficult for the PlayOff Committee to ignore considering Notre Dame have lost twice, but winning in South Bend in an evening game is a huge challenge.

Much could depend on Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans Offensive unit and whether they can cover up some of the issues the Defense has been having.

Most expect Caleb Williams to be the clear choice as the Number 1 Pick in the next NFL Draft and there has been nothing seen from the Quarter Back to really argue against that. This is clearly going to be the best Defensive unit that USC will have faced so far this season and so Williams and company still have something to prove.

They will be encouraged by the recent Fighting Irish games with a team that is perhaps running low in the gas tank beginning to struggle. The Defensive Line has found it very difficult to stop the run in their last three games and the Trojans will likely be looking to pound the ball right at Notre Dame in a bid to extend drives and also make sure Quarter Back Caleb Williams is not feeling under pressure to push the boat out.

It will be important to operate in third and manageable situations considering the high level that Notre Dame are still producing in the Secondary. Running the ball effectively should mean Caleb Williams has a chance to show off a little more than others have been able to do against the Fighting Irish, while the Quarter Back is expected to have some time in the pocket.

Notre Dame have dominated at home against the Trojans in recent years and will be looking for revenge for an 11 point road loss last season.

However, the Fighting Irish may struggle to keep their level going for the full sixty minutes in this game considering all of the Football they have been playing without a Bye Week.

This should give the Trojans a chance of the 'upset' as the narrow road underdog in what should be a highly charged, competitive game. Notre Dame will play hard trying to show they are anything but 'tired' or fatigued, but keeping up with the Trojans for the full game might just be a step too far for Sam Hartman and his Offensive team-mates and the stronger balanced USC Offense might lead to the win in Week 7.

MY PICKS: Colorado Buffaloes - 11.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 19 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 31 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

Thursday, 12 October 2023

NFL Week 6 Picks 2023 (October 12-16)

There is still much of the long NFL regular season to be played, but things are beginning to settle into something of a pattern and you can start thinking about the teams that are potential Super Bowl Champions and those who have to consider moving some players around at the trade deadline.

Teams like the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings could really be ready to take phone calls and listen to conversations about some of their better players on the roster- Kirk Cousins is almost certainly going to be involved in trade rumours right up until the deadline, unless he is, of course, moved on sooner.

Outside of the best teams, there are a lot of teams that will believe they can beat any opponent they face on 'any given Sunday' and half of the thirty two teams are at 3-2 or 2-3 after five games are played (eighteen of thirty-two teams would have that record if the Chargers and Browns had not been on a Bye Week in Week 5 when holding 2-2 records).

Only two teams remain unbeaten and both are in the NFC- not many would bet against the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers meeting in the Championship Game for a second year in a row- while three teams sit just below those 5-0 records at 4-1.

The AFC North and AFC South look like Divisions that are going to be hard fought right down to the wire in the regular season and it could mean that only one from each is able to make the PlayOffs, while the NFC South has three teams with winning records, which is a surprise through five weeks.

As we have already seen through the first five weeks of the season, every week things can change in terms of an outlook as to who the best teams in the NFL are, but right now you would find it hard to look past the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles as the stand out teams that could win the Super Bowl.

Injuries are going to be the key though and that is where the Bills fans might be a little worried with some top Defensive names set to miss some time.


On ther other side there will be little sympathy for the New England Patriots and the struggles of a franchise that have not been the same since Tom Brady left. A long Dynasty looks to be at the end of the line under Bill Belichick after back to back embarrassing blowouts and the veteran Head Coach does not look like he has the answers to get things back on track.

Mac Jones has been bad, but the Patriots have not been competitive in any facet of their Football over the last two losses to the Cowboys and New Orleans Saints and a new era could soon begin in Foxboro.

The aforementioned Broncos and Vikings have been disappointments, while the Carolina Panthers have expected this to be a rough season as they enter Week 6 as the last team without a victory. Earning that this week looks incredibly unlikely, but the NFL can spring up plenty of surprises and that is why we keep watching.


Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Games between Divisional rivals are rarely ending in blowouts and that is certainly the case when the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) and Denver Broncos (1-4) have met, despite the fact the Chiefs have won fifteen in a row in this series.

The Broncos were 8.5 point underdogs at home and 13.5 point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium in 2022, but they were only beaten by 6 and 3 points respectively. Denver are now 4-1 against the spread in the last five between the teams and the performances last season are giving the players something to hold onto as they prepare for this Week 6 game on Thursday Night Football.

At this moment in time the Broncos need to find the positives wherever they can as they continue to struggle under the guidance of new Head Coach Sean Payton. The former New Orleans Saints Super Bowl winning Coach was supposed to come in and quickly turn things around for the Broncos after their 5-12 record in 2022, but there is clearly a lot of work to be done.

Just to underline the point, Sean Payton would have been embarrassed in Week 5 when the Broncos were beaten by double digits at home against the New York Jets. Losing to Zach Wilson and the Jets by that margin is hard enough to take, but would have been all the worse for Payton considering the 'horrible' job he felt Nathaniel Hackett had done as Head Coach for the Broncos in 2022, the same Hackett who is now the New York Offensive Co-Ordinator.

You just know the Jets enjoyed the result and the Denver Broncos have looked lost all season- even their one win over the Chicago Bears came in a game that Denver were down by 21 points before rallying, while no one will have forgotten what happened in Miami in Week 3.

At least the Denver Offensive unit have been able to have some success and that should also be seen in this Thursday Night Football game. The Offensive Line has not been the best when it comes to pass protection, but Denver have been able to run the ball effectively through Jaleel McLaughlin, an Undrafted rookie who has really sparked the Broncos on the ground.

He has made very good use of the carries that have been given to him over the last couple of weeks, although the Broncos will need to be competitive to make sure Jaleel McLaughlin is given a few more in this one. The Running Back has shown he can be a good safety blanket for Russell Wilson in the passing game too, and McLaughlin could have a strong game against the Chiefs Defensive Line which can be broken open for some solid gains on the ground.

It is also key for the Denver Offensive Line to be playing out of third and manageable spots and also develop play-action calls for Russell Wilson. The Quarter Back is clearly not as dynamic getting out of the pocket as he once was with the Seattle Seahawks and Wilson has absorbed far too many Sacks already, which will be a problem against this Kansas City pass rush if in obvious passing situations.

The pressure up front has really helped the Kansas City Secondary, who have held their last three opponents to an average of under 200 passing yards per game. It is key for the Broncos to be able to run the ball as they have been, but just as important is making sure they do not fall too far behind and have to have Russell Wilson throwing the ball to keep up with their Divisional rivals.

Running the ball is not something that Andy Reid enjoys, but even the Kansas City Chiefs have to appreciate the monster holes being allowed by the Denver Broncos. Unlike the Chiefs, the Denver Defensive unit have shown little ability to stop teams through the air and there should be a comfortable balance of play-calling for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs throughout this game

The Broncos Defensive Line have allowed 5.9 yards per carry this season and almost 190 yards per game on the ground as they have struggled to stop teams from crushing them up front. Kansas City may not have the speedsters at Running Back like some teams, but Isiah Pacheco knows how to move and you have to expect Pacheco to have a big game, while Patrick Mahomes is also capable of moving the chains with his legs.

Travis Kelce might be held out in this game after suffering an injury in Week 5 and with the mini-break coming up before the Chiefs face another Divisional rival in the Los Angeles Chargers. The latter are expected to rival Kansas City much longer than the Broncos within the Division so Kelce might not be risked, but even then the Quarter Back and this Receiving corps should have some big holes to exploit in the Denver Secondary.

If the road team are not able to stop the run, Patrick Mahomes should be given plenty of time by his Offensive Line to make some big plays down the field and this may be the most one-sided Kansas City win over Denver since October 2020 when the Chiefs won by 27 points.

The Broncos have shown they can produce some late Offensive drives that lead to points and so the backdoor cover is a genuine concern.

Add in the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs have won their four games this season by 8, 31, 3 and 4 points and this double digit spread will feel big. However, in saying that, the Broncos are struggling massively and would have been invested in trying to get one over on former Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett in Week 5 and now have to play this game on the road on a short week.

Emotionally they may not find the plays needed and the balanced Kansas City Offensive unit should be able to pile up plenty of points and cover the mark.


Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens Pick: The last NFL game to be played in London, England will take place in Week 6 at Tottenham Hotspur and features the Baltimore Ravens (3-2) and Tennessee Titans (2-3). Neither of these teams is playing at the kind of level they may have expected at the beginning of the season and both have suffered a defeat in Week 5 which will have frustrated the players and the Head Coach of each team.

John Harbaugh and the Ravens have taken a different approach to preparing for this game having arrived in London at the start of the week, while Mike Vrabel and the Titans have chosen a much more 'flying visit' kind of approach.

These factors can be key when the teams take to the field and Baltimore have made it clear that they needed to do something different having been blown out in London by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017. John Harbaugh admitted that he had to take a different approach after remembering what happened the last time Baltimore played in London and he will also be hoping the team can bond after the disappointing defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Errors in the Fourth Quarter proved to be costly for Baltimore and they know they will need to clean those up if they are going to return to the PlayOffs. The AFC North is a competitive Division, but the Ravens still hold a winning record and they will feel confident of being able to turn things around when Lamar Jackson and the Offensive unit build up some chemistry and get into a stronger rhythm.

That confidence might not be as clear in the Tennessee Titans camp, who are the designated hosts in this International Series game, but they are in a relatively weak Division. The Colts and Texans are more competitive than expected, while Jacksonville are the current defending Champions in this Division, but Tennessee truly still believe they can do a lot better than their 7-10 record in 2022.

Mike Vrabel will be the first to admit that his team needs to be a lot better on both sides of the ball if they are going to compete at the top of the Division and a win ahead of the Bye Week may give them a positive shot in the arm.

Winning will not be easy for the Titans against this Baltimore team that looks to match up pretty well with them on both sides of the ball.

Derrick Henry has not been trampling teams as we have come to expect with the Titans Offensive Line struggling to open the kind of holes that have been a feature of the team in recent seasons. Doubling down on the issue is that the Titans will be going up against this Baltimore Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run all season and forced Quarter Backs to beat them through the air.

The Ravens may have lost two of their last three games, but that has not been a Defensive problem with the team holding teams to an average of 260 total yards per game. Making sure that Derrick Henry is not finding the room to carry this Titans Offensive unit will be a big win for Baltimore who will not be concerned about the Tennessee Receiving corps, nor veteran Quarter Back Ryan Tannehill.

Offensive Line problems in establishing the run have been one thing, but Tennessee have not been able to give Ryan Tannehill any time in the pocket and that is a major concern against this Baltimore pass rush. Additionally, Ryan Tannehill is going to be trying to make plays against this tough Ravens Secondary and it feels like it is going to be a long day for the Titans Offensively if they are not able to run the ball, which is the expectation.

This also adds to the pressure that will be felt by the Titans Defensive unit as they look to keep the team in the game for as long as possible.

Like the Titans, Baltimore want to establish the run and the Offensive Line looks capable of helping them do that, especially with Lamar Jackson's scrambling ability a real factor too. Losing JK Dobbins will have hurt, but Gus Edwards is playing pretty well and the Ravens do look capable of having enough success on the ground to control the clock.

There is a hope that more is to come from Lamar Jackson and he could have a decent game throwing the ball, even if the Wide Receivers are still trying to get on the same page as the Quarter Back.

The Titans have been able to generate a decent pass rush, but it will be much tougher to be effective from third and short positions on the field and Lamar Jackson can move away from some of the pressure to give himself a bit more time. Holes in the Secondary could be more glaring if the Titans are not able to stop the run and it does feel like Baltimore are in a better position to bounce back after the respective Week 5 losses.

You have to credit how well Tennessee have performed as an underdog with Head Coach Mike Vrabel at the helm and so it is never easy to oppose them.

However, it feels like a pretty poor match up in the trenches on both sides of the ball for the Titans and this should mean Baltimore have a much better time in London than their last appearance in the United Kingdom Capital.


Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: After back to back games in London, productive games, the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) are back on top of the AFC South and have something to build upon. Winning games in the United States has been a bit more difficult for them this season, but the one victory they have earned on home soil was against the Indianapolis Colts (3-2).

This time the Jaguars are hosting having earned the victory over the Colts in Week 1 of the 2023 season. Another win in Week 6 will give Jacksonville the tie-breaker over their current closest rival in the Division and one that has played well enough to believe could be a threat throughout this year.

It will especially be the case if the Colts can win this game and take over the lead of the AFC South and they will be looking to do that behind a Quarter Back who is plenty familair to the home crowd.

Gardner Minshew had a solid couple of years with the Jaguars and will be the starting Quarter Back for the Indianapolis Colts for several games at least while rookie Anthony Richardson is on the IR. Some believe his injuries already sustained in the small sample of NFL games played might cost Richardson the entire season, but Gardner Minshew is an effective backup.

With Jonathan Taylor likely to be given a few more snaps having returned to the team, Minshew may be looking to hand the ball off to his two Running Backs and hope they can put the team on their back. The Offensive Line has already been ripping open some big holes for Zack Moss, but Jonathan Taylor is a special Running Back and could see the Colts look even stronger on the ground.

Both are likely to also play a part in the passing game, but the key will be to keep Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Offensive unit in front of the chains.

If they can do that, the Colts should see their Quarter Back have a strong day throwing the ball into this Jacksonville Secondary, while the pocket will also be clean for Gardner Minshew to go through his reads and find those open Receivers.

Indianapolis should be able to move the ball with some consistency, but the same can be said for the Jacksonville Jaguars after some improved performances. Travis Etienne has gotten going on the ground and that is incredibly important to the Jaguars to just give Trevor Lawrence and the passing game an opportunity to put up some solid numbers.

In recent games it has been a little more possible to run the ball against this Colts Defensive Line so you do have to believe that Etienne will have a solid game. We also know the Quarter Back is happy to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs and it should mean the Colts pass rush is just second guessing themselves at times.

Quality Receiving options are creating openings in the passing game and Trevor Lawrence has shown he can make all of the throws so Jacksonville should be able to exploit one or two holes that have opened up in the Colts Secondary. Like his opposite number and someone who helped him when he came into the NFL, Trevor Lawrence may also be able to use the foundation of a strong running game to hit Receivers down the field.

Being at home has perhaps strengthened this line in favour of the Jaguars, but the spot is far from ideal against a Divisional rival that will feel they can keep up on the scoreboard.

They are the first team to play back to back games in London in consecutive weeks so we don't really know how that is going to impact Jacksonville in their return home. It does not help that they are scheduled for a short week when playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a win over the Colts already may mean there is a bit more motivation in the road locker room to earn a measure of revenge.

Those factors could see the Colts keep this within a Field Goal mark in a game where Gardner Minshew will want to remind the home fans of 'Minshew Mania' during his time with the Jaguars. At the very least a backdoor cover should be possible for the Colts and taking more than a Field Goal worth of points is appealing in this one.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1,91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Coral (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 14 Points @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Saturday, 7 October 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Leigh Wood vs Josh Warrington (October 7th)

Watching the fight live and at such a time in the morning in the United Kingdom may have had me appreciate what I was seeing more than most, who felt Jermell Charlo had underperformed in his defeat to Canelo Alvarez.

Some have suggested the immediate plan was to try and make sure all Twelve Rounds were completed, but I think Charlo changed his mindset when put down in the Seventh Round. He had felt the power of Canelo at that point and there was nothing anyone could have told him to get him to 'go out on his shield' like some wanted to see.

While there are some that may believe this ends Jermell Charlo's chances of securing some big fights, the feeling is that he will be back when moving back down to Light Middleweight. The Middleweight Division in which his twin brother Jermall is one of the Champions is also a potential future for Jermell Charlo seeing as it is as weak as it has been in a long time, but the likes of Tim Tszyu and Terence Crawford are serious options at 154 pounds and that has to be the direction the Texan is looking at.


There was a big time feel about the Canelo-Charlo fight last week, but cards are not up to that level this week.

In saying that, there are two decent looking main events in the United Kingdom and United States, which should keep things ticking along for Boxing fans before the YouTubers take over next weekend.



Leigh Wood vs Josh Warrington

If this fight had taken place a couple of years ago, Josh Warrington is likely to have gone into it as the World Champion and a strong favourite.

However, in October 2023, it is Leigh Wood who holds a World Title and who is considered the man on the up, even though he is the older of the two.

The strong win in the rematch with Mauricio Lara has just raised the Leigh Wood stock and the only disappointment is that a deal could not be made with Nottingham Forest to host this as the City Ground. That may still be a possibility for Wood in 2024 as long as he is able to come through this defence, although it may also be a time when he is operating in a higher weight class.

He has admitted that making the Featherweight limit is becoming a bit too difficult, but Wood did look stronger on the scales compared with Josh Warrington. We have not seen the Leeds man in ten months and there are plenty of miles on the clock for Warrington, which makes it difficult to imagine him earning the upset.

What we will see from Josh Warrington is the courage to get forward and try and unleash on Leigh Wood, but this may only play into the hands of the Champion. He has proven to be heavy handed in the latter years of his career and if there are any struggles being felt by Josh Warrington, Leigh Wood may be able to expose those.

The expectation is that neither fighter will be willing to take a backwards step and that can only be good news for the fans.

Ultimately the momentum in the respective careers is with Leigh Wood and he might be able to put together enough to eventually grind down and break down the former World Champion. Both fighters have been Stopped before so this war of attrition may come down to who has a bit more left in the tank and the feeling is that Leigh Wood is that fighter.


There are a couple of intriguing fights on the undercard, most notably the Kieron Conway vs Linus Udofia.

Neither is unbeaten and this is a crossroads fight that genuinely feels like a 50/50.

Both have lost fights when stepping up, but the Linus Udofia effort against Denzel Bentley may just give him the edge in this bout if he can replicate the levels reached.

Kieron Conway has shown plenty in his career, and he is a capable fighter, but he may just come up short in another step up.



Gilberto Ramirez vs Joe Smith Jr

Over in the United States, two former Light Heavyweights have decided to meet at a Cruiserweight limit.

Both Gilberto Ramirez and Joe Smith Jr came up short against the Kings of the 175 Division, Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev respectively, and are looking to bounce back on Saturday.

Out of the two, the feeling is that Gilberto Ramirez has underachieved, despite his record, and Joe Smith Jr has massively overachieved. However, at 34 years old and with Artur Beterbiev exposing some serious defensive issues, you have to wonder how much Smith Jr has left in the tank.

His team have reportedly asked for this fight to be reduced from Twelve Rounds to Ten Rounds, which is raising red flags, and Gilberto Ramirez has the tools to beat a fighter that is on a level that he may never have expected.

Trusting Zurdo is not always a good way to go, but he might come through what is expected to be a firefight.


We have Bektermir Melikuziev on the undercard and he should be able to win his fight with Alantez Fox relatively quickly.

MY PICKS: Leigh Wood to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 4.20 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Linus Udofia @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)
Gilberto Ramirez to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bektermir Melikuziev to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 45-80, - 22.50 Units (233 Units Staked, - 9.66% Yield)

Friday, 6 October 2023

College Football Week 6 Picks 2023 (October 6-7)

The big name schools who are going to be pushing for places in the College Football PlayOff later this year all managed to ride through Week 5 of the regular season, but there are still some question marks that have been raised.

For all of the qualities and the long unbeaten run put together by the Georgia Bulldogs, they continue to win games by tight margins and a slow start could prove to be costly sooner than later. They are a team that has lost considerable talent to the NFL, but the Bulldogs do remain unbeaten and look to have another significant test to pass this week when taking on the Kentucky Wildcats.

The USC Trojans are another unbeaten team with high hopes behind their potential Heisman favourite at Quarter Back and someone who is being pencilled in as the Number 1 Pick in the next NFL Draft. However, they will have to answer questions about the Defensive unit that has allowed teams to claw their way back into games that the Trojans had looked to have controlled.

We still have three top teams in the Big Ten East that are likely going to have to fight amongst themselves for a place in the PlayOff, while the Big 12 cannot be happy to see the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners leading the way just months before they move to the SEC. At least this week those other Big 12 teams can enjoy seeing one of those teams lose when they face each other in the Red River Rivalry.

In general it was a quieter week in terms of the big losses, but Week 6 has gotten going and there are plenty of teams out there looking to make noise.


Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The Red River Rivalry is always a big deal, but perhaps it is much bigger in 2023 as the two schools close out their time in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC.

Both the Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) and Texas Longhorns (2-0) have already won two Conference games and they are favourites to meet in the Big 12 Championship Game later this year. However, the winning team in this potential first of two meetings will also push their claim to be invited into the College Football PlayOff and there is a lot on the line.

Redemption and revenge will be the kind of words bandied about on the Oklahoma campus in the build up to this game on a neutral field and there is little doubt that the Coaching Staff would have long circled the game. The Sooners Head Coach, Brent Venables, oversaw the embarrassing 49-0 loss to the Texas Longhorns last season, although it was the injury to Quarter Back Dillon Gabriel that completely turned the direction that game may have been heading.

Dillon Gabriel was not able to suit up on the day and the Sooners put up less than 40 passing yards in the big loss, but this year Gabriel is set to go. 15 Touchdown passes have been thrown in the five wins secured to open the season and and Dillon Gabriel has almost 1600 passing yards and just 2 Interceptions.

He has also shown an ability to scramble with 4 Touchdowns on the ground and this dual-threat is going to be key for the Sooners as they try and beat what may believe could be the best team in the Big 12. The Longhorns are allowing an average of just 12.8 points per game this season and any team that holds a win on the road at the Alabama Crimson Tide has to be given a huge amount of respect.

Much of the pressure could be on the arm of Dillon Gabriel considering the Sooners Offensive Line's issues in opening up big rushing holes this season. It has been even more difficult as Oklahoma have moved into the Conference part of their schedule, while the Texas Defensive Line has prided itself on being able to make Offenses a little one-dimensional.

It is still likely to be a game where Dillon Gabriel has success through the air, and the Offensive Line has been stronger when it comes to giving their Quarter Back time in the pocket. He is going to be facing a Longhorns Secondary that has held teams to less than 200 passing yards on the season on average, but Gabriel has shown he can make big plays even if he has yet to really face stellar competiton.

Texas are expected to be the more battle-hardened, but they have made easy work of their last two opponents to build some momentum up. Like Oklahoma, the Longhorns have to be very happy with the efforts of Quarter Back Quinn Ewers who has over 1300 passing yards with 10 Touchdowns and a single Interception thrown.

One of the big improvements has been in the Offensive Line too and they will give Ewers plenty of time, while also being able to bully opponents up front to set up a strong running game. This balance is likely going to be key for the Texas Longhorns who are searching for consecutive wins over the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time since 2009.

We have seen a much improved Oklahoma Defensive unit through the first five games of this season, but again it has to be noted that this is a big step up compared with previous opponents faced. The revenge factor will go a long way too and there is very little doubt that this is going to be much, much more competitive than 2022 when the Sooners were too short-handed.

Even then, the Longhorns should be able to cover this mark with their balanced Offensive play likely to make a big difference between the teams. The last five Red River Rivalry games played have all ended with the winning team doing so by at least 7 points and the feeling is that the Longhorns will be able to keep that trend going.

It also feels like the Sooners are not going to be helped by the fact their schedule has been weaker than the one Texas have negotiated and the Longhorns can frank that win over Alabama with another big one to impress the College Football PlayOff Committee later in the year.


Washington State Cougars @ UCLA Bruins Pick: The Pac-12 Conference has some talented, unbeaten teams who will all have PlayOff aspirations. The USC Trojans, Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks are all currently Ranked inside the top 10, but the Washington State Cougars (4-0) will be coming out of a Bye Week looking to show they belong.

People have been impressed by the Cougars who are Number 13 in the Rankings, but we will learn plenty about Washington State in the coming weeks as they play Arizona and Oregon following this road game at the UCLA Bruins (3-1).

Two weeks ago the Bruins could not find anything going Offensively in their loss to the Utah Utes and they will be looking to bounce back in their second Pac-12 game of the regular season. Like their visiting opponent, things could look pretty different for the Bruins if they can bounce back from the defeat in Utah when the Offense struggled to put up the numbers they would have hoped.

Dante Moore struggled at Quarter Back in the loss two weeks ago and the team in general struggled to convert Third Downs consistently enough to win the game in Utah. However, overall it has been a decent start to the season for the UCLA Bruins on this side of the ball and the Washington State Defensive unit is not up to the same level as the one the Utes bring onto the field.

One of the important aspects of this game is that Bruins can lean on the run to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back and it is going to be a tough test for the Cougars Defensive Line. For much of the season the Cougars have not been able to clamp down on the run and the Bruins are likely to keep Dante Moore in front of the chains in this game, which only makes things more comfortable for the Quarter Back.

It will also mean Dante Moore is able to throw without the kind of pass rush pressure in his face that could lead to mistakes. There are some holes in the Washington State Secondary and Moore has 8 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions this season and he can keep the UCLA Bruins moving up and down the field much more consistently than they did against Utah.

At the same time, the Cougars will be extremely confident in their own Offensive unit, which is not a surprise considering they are scoring almost 46 points per game this season. Wins over Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon State Beavers look solid and Cameron Ward is the latest Quarter Back representing the Cougars who is piling up the numbers through the air.

Cameron Ward has almost 1400 passing yards in four games and has thrown 13 Touchdown passes without an Interception to his name.

You have to credit some of the play-calling and execution when you think the Cougars Offensive Line have not been creating big running lanes. They are not expected to get much change out of the Bruins Defensive Line up front, but Cameron Ward has shown that he can get plenty out of his arm to keep the chains moving.

A tough Oregon State Secondary was not able to do much to stop Cameron Ward, who had over 400 passing yards in that upset win two weeks ago. With that in mind, even the strong Secondary play of the Bruins may not be enough to shut down the pass, which is going to mean more pressure on those up front to try and rattle Ward in the pass rush.

UCLA have gotten to the Quarter Back this season so will believe they can do the same here and that is likely to be key to the outcome of this game. If Cameron Ward has time, he will make big plays, but the Bruins might have the Offensive balance to sustain drives.

Keeping Ward and the Washington State Offense on the sidelines means they will not be able to score points and the Bruins do have enough to bounce back and cover in a home win. It should be a really fun game for the neutral to enjoy with both Offensive units going up and down the field, but the Bruins stronger Defensive performances might show up for them in key moments to determine the outcome of this Conference game.


Syracuse Orange @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: A strong start to the season which saw the Syracuse Orange (4-1) win four in a row meant there was a real sense of expectation when they hosted the Clemson Tigers in their first Conference game of the season. Even the layers made the Tigers a relatively small favourite on the road, but the Orange came up considerably short in their 17 point defeat.

Bouncing back is going to be a test for the Syracuse Orange as they prepare to face one of six teams in the ACC who have yet to lose a Conference game. The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-0) are rested since crushing the Pittsburgh Panthers on the road, while other wins over the South Carolina Gamecocks and Minnesota Golden Gophers have looked strong.

Outside of the Florida State Seminoles, the Tar Heels do look the best team in the Conference, although we may find out much about them when they face the Miami Hurricanes. That game is a potential distraction for North Carolina, although the extra preparation time for this game should mean the Tar Heels avoid overlooking the Syracuse Orange.

North Carolina will very much go as far as Drake Maye's arm will take them and the young Quarter Back is living up to the early hype around him. That does not mean there isn't any room for improvement and the Quarter Back has thrown 4 Interceptions this season, which is a disappointment when you think he 'only' has 5 Touchdown passes.

He can make plays with his legs though and that dual-threat ability will make it tough for the Syracuse Defensive unit. Using his legs will be important to just keep the Tar Heels in front of the chains and avoid Drake Maye having to throw in the kind of pressure that saw him Sacked five times in the win over the Panthers.

The Orange pass rush will feel they can get to Maye if he is in obvious passing situations, but stopping the pass could be tough after allowing 263 passing yards and 2 Touchdown passes to Cade Klubnik and the Clemson Tigers last week.

Interceptions could be key to the outcome of this game and both Quarter Backs have had some issues with turnovers through the air. The Orange Offensive unit could lessen their chances of making mistakes by running the ball and there have been some holes up front in the North Carolina Defensive Line which can be exploited by Syracuse.

Garrett Shrader is another dual-threat Quarter Back taking to the field and he will be key for Syracuse, both through the air and on the ground. Keeping the team ahead of the down and distance will be hugely important as the Orange try and bounce back from their loss to the Clemson Tigers.

The feeling is that Shrader is going to be much more effective on the ground than through the air with the Tar Heels Secondary playing at a good level. He does have stronger numbers than Drake Maye through the opening games with Garrett Shrader having 8 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions, but he was restricted to 200 total yards with 2 Touchdown passes and an Interception in the defeat to the Clemson Tigers.

There is little doubt that the Syracuse Orange had not really played any team up to the level of the Tigers in their four game winning run and the same could be said for the North Carolina Tar Heels. We will likely see what the Orange learned from the experience of last week, but North Carolina still have a bit too much talent for Syracuse and that can ultimately lead to a strong win.

When these teams last met in the 2020 season, North Carolina crushed Syracuse at home and a double digit win has to be expected from a stronger team.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: There will be a huge amount of regret for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) if the failure to attention at the end of the defeat to the Ohio State Buckeyes costs them a spot in the College Football PlayOff later in the year. All the team can do is bounce back and try and run the table with some big games to come, although they cannot afford to overlook the Louisville Cardinals (5-0) and begin to think about the game against the USC Trojans coming up in Week 7.

It is unlikely that the Fighting Irish will do that considering they are facing the early ACC leading Cardinals who have won three Conference games in their unbeaten start to the season. While you can only beat the teams you are facing on your schedule, it should be noted that the three ACC teams beaten by Louisville have a combined 7-8 record for the season and upcoming games against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Duke Blue Devils will really tell us a lot more about the Cardinals.

Mistakes might have ended up being costly for the Cardinals in their very narrow win over the NC State Wolfpack last week and those need to be cleaned up if Louisville are going to upset some of the stronger schools they will be facing. Jake Plummer (no not the former NFL player obviously) has thrown for over 1400 yards and has 11 Touchdown passes, but the 6 Interceptions are an issue and he was also fumbling the ball away in the 13-10 win over the Wolfpack.

Now Plummer, and the Cardinals Offensive unit, are going to be up against the best Defensive unit they would have faced this season, one that is giving up just 13 points per game on the season. Running the ball has made things easier for Jake Plummer at Quarter Back, but the Cardinals are facing a stout Defensive Line and it might be on Plummer to win this one with his arm.

However, he is throwing against a Secondary restricting teams to under 150 passing yards per game and who have covered Receivers without the strongest of pass rushes up front. Interceptions have been a feature of the Notre Dame Secondary play and they are likely going to have the players who can make enough big plays to help the Fighting Irish move into a position to win another tough road game.

Winning back to back games on the road is more challenging, but Notre Dame are playing with an extremely experienced Quarter Back and that has been seen in the performances. Sam Hartman has 14 Touchdown passes without throwing an Interception this season after a strong career as a member of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, while he is playing behind a strong looking Offensive Line that is capable of breaking open some big running lanes, as well as giving Hartman all of the time he needs to make his plays when throwing the ball.

You have to respect the numbers being produced by the Cardinals Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run, but it might be more difficult against a Quarter Back like Sam Hartman. The threat posed by Hartman may mean Louisville are choosing to have a few more Defenders in coverage, and that could subsequently mean the Fighting Irish Offensive Line is able to do what they want up front.

It is a difficult position for the Cardinals with the Secondary giving up some solid plays in the passing game and Notre Dame are capable of exposing the holes.

Creating turnovers is an advantage for Louisville, but Sam Hartman has been so good with the ball in 2023 that you have to favour the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win and cover in a second consecutive tough road game.

The Cardinals were able to play Notre Dame tough when these teams last met in 2020 and this is another game that is likely to be very competitive. However, this time the feeling is that the Fighting Irish will make enough plays on both sides of the ball to earn the win and the cover on the road.


Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: There are four teams in the Big Ten East who have records of 4-0 or 5-0 and one of those is the Michigan Wolverines (5-0) who may be the best of all. They reached the College Football PlayOff last year and and the Wolverines look strong on both sides of the ball, which will make them favourites to win this Conference and earn their spot in the final four once more.

Another crushing Conference win has kept the momentum behind the Michigan Wolverines and they do have a schedule that gives the team a chance to continue grinding and improving. Defensively they have given almost nothing away and it has allowed the Wolverines to make enough plays on the other side of the ball to win games.

Next up is a trip to the Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-2) who are playing in the weaker Division in the Big Ten, although they will perhaps be a little disappointed the have not managed to win both Conference games played. Beating the Nebraska Cornhuskers saw the Golden Gophers fail to cover, but they were then beaten by the Northwestern Wildcats as a favourite.

The Golden Gophers will be the latest to try and find a way to consistently move the ball up the field and it feels like a challenge that is going to be beyond them on this side of the ball. Offensively much depends on how well they are able to run the ball, but the Minnesota Offensive Line might not be able to find a lot of room against this Wolverines Defensive Line which has restricted teams to 3.1 yards per carry.

It also doesn't help that Minnesota could be without Darius Taylor at Running Back and the Wolverines should be able to shift the pressure onto Athan Kaliakmanis at Quarter Back. He has thrown 5 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions this season and Kaliakmanis is going to be trying to find room in the Secondary against a Michigan team allowing just 160 passing yards per game on average.

Unlike the Golden Gophers, the Michigan Offensive Line is almost certainly going to be a lot more confident when it comes to establishing the run. Blake Corum is the main Offensive weapon for the Wolverines and he is likely to have another strong outing in Week 6 to make sure the Michigan Offense is in a position to make consistent plays.

With Corum likely to be moving the ball on the ground, JJ McCarthy should be able to have a comfortable evening at Quarter Back. He has already thrown 10 Touchdown passes and the Wolverines are expecting more from McCarthy, which could be evidenced in this game against this Golden Gophers Secondary that has struggled in a few of the five games played in 2023.

Michigan should be comfortable knowing they can pound the rock efficiently and the Wolverines have won the last two games against the Golden Gophers by 23 and 25 points. Covering this spread will not be easy, but Michigan's Defensive unit have been able to shut down opponents and that should give the road team every chance to win by around three Touchdowns.

It has not been a season of covers for the Michigan Wolverines, even if they have won all five games, but they did cover in their crushing win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. After grinding down the Golden Gophers, Michigan can pull away for a strong win in the second half as they keep the momentum going in what looks the best Division in College Football.

MY PICKS: Kansas State Wildcats - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 3 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 13 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 20 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats + 21 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)