Premier League 2014/15 Preview (August 2014)

Even with the World Cup this summer, it has felt like a long time since the end of the Premier League season and the start of another new season. Maybe that wasn't helped by the fact that Manchester United have so much room to improve from what was a terrible season, the worst they have suffered in twenty-five years.

Whenever United lose a game, I just want the next one to come along as soon as possible to rectify the situation, so it has felt like a three month wait to get things back in order. In that time, Louis Van Gaal has been appointed and come into the club with a new philosophy on the field although the lack of signings has to be a concern considering the gap there is to make up.

Of course, there is the 'benefit' of being out of European competition altogether this season and United can very much replicate Liverpool from last season and certainly get back into the top four. The loss of Luis Suarez will affect Liverpool, as will the addition of Champions League football, and their fans will be hoping Brendan Rodgers can integrate the new signings much better than Andre Villas-Boas did at Tottenham Hotspur last season after they splurged the Gareth Bale money.


There are plenty of intriguing questions that need to be answered over the next nine months both at the top and bottom of the Premier League and below you will see the table that I am predicting at this stage. There is still plenty of time for teams to make signings and improve their chances with the transfer window still a little over two weeks from closing, so this prediction is simply on the shape of the squads as we get set for the first week of the new season.


1. Chelsea: It is certainly not the most out of the box pick for the Premier League title, but Chelsea look to have improved to the point of being able to overturn Manchester City. Apart from a couple of late lapses in concentration last season, Chelsea may have been able to win the Premier League with both Manchester City and Liverpool opening the door in the final weeks of the season.

The recall of Thibaut Courtois from Atletico Madrid and the signing of Diego Costa means Chelsea have two of the main four spine of a team that beat Real Madrid and Barcelona to the La Liga title and also reached the Champions League Final.

Both improve Chelsea and the arrival of Cesc Fabregas looks a great piece of business from Jose Mourinho. I would have loved to have seen the Spaniard walk through the doors of Old Trafford and he should take little time to settle in with his previous experience at Arsenal.

The key may be keeping Costa fit after his injuries towards the end of Atletico's season almost cost them the title and certainly didn't help in the Champions League Final. Having to rely on Fernando Torres and Didier Drogba for long periods would be tough for Chelsea as both are not the same players that were once so effective in the Premier League.


2. Manchester City: On a pure starting XI, I would fancy Manchester City to win the Premier League, but I think their depth of squad is still a concern and Sergio Aguero's injury-proneness would be a concern.

Can Yaya Toure really produce as much from midfield as he did last season? Can a defence integrating new faces provide the platform for success? These are two questions that may decide whether Manchester City can win the title for a second year in succession, but they have shown nerves down the stretch last season and I think they may find Chelsea a little too capable of winning games at key times to overcome.


3. Arsenal: After snapping their run without a trophy, Arsenal will have a new found belief in their ability to win trophies and that could make them a dangerous team through this Premier League season. The signing of Alexis Sanchez gives them another world class operator to pair with Mesut Ozil and I can see Arsenal improving once Theo Walcott returns.

If they can stay fit, Arsenal may be the surprise team of the season, although the issues remain in defensive areas and whether they are good enough against the very best.

However, Liverpool showed last season that being able to win the matches against the 'weaker' teams with consistency will provide the platform for a title challenge and this Arsenal teams looks capable of beating most teams in this Premier League. There is a small part of me that believes Arsenal are good enough to surprise the two teams I have placed above them, but I have settled for them here simply because of the lack of depth in key areas in defence and defensive midfield that may cost them in a long thirty-eight game season.

Also, in the history of the Premier League since it's inception, no team has won the title when they have finished outside the top three the previous season and that is another factor going against the Gunners.


4. Manchester United: The additions of Luke Shaw and Ander Herrera were supposed to be backed up by others, but it looks like Louis Van Gaal will be going into the season with a similar squad to last season. The losses of Patrice Evra, Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic means Van Gaal has opted for a different formation to get the best out of his squad, although United do look short at the back.

I'd be more than a little surprised if there are no more additions to the squad before September swings around, but even the current squad may be good enough to get back into the top four.

Van Gaal will give the team a different confidence going into matches compared with how David Moyes approached things and the team have looked happier in pre-season. It's tough for teams to bounce from seventh all the way up into the top four, but Liverpool proved that playing one game a week is possible to do just that and I think that will help this United squad prepare fully for the Premier League and see them get back into the elite of Europe after a one year absence.


5. Liverpool: On the same path as above, I think the additional games of the Champions League was always going to give Brendan Rodgers a few more issues to negotiate and that was before they lost Luis Suarez to Barcelona.

It is a huge blow to the squad and I have not been convinced with the arrivals in the Uruguayan's place- they look over reliant on Daniel Sturridge up front and losing him for a prolonged period would give Liverpool a lot of problems in my opinion.

The extra games that come with Europe will sap energy and not allow Liverpool to focus on Premier League matters alone and I do believe they have missed their best chance to win the Premier League title that they will have in the foreseeable future. Getting back into the top four would be an achievement for the club, but it may prove to be a step too far for Liverpool this season.


6. Tottenham Hotspur: There are some major issues in defence that need resolving, but Mauricio Pochettino arrives at the club with the ability to get the best out of his squad of players and I think there is certainly some talent in the squad.

If Pochettino can get the best out of the likes of Erik Lamela and Roberto Soldado, Spurs may be able to get a little closer to the top four, although the defensive problems means they are unlikely to prevent dropping a position this season.

I do think they will play much more attractive football this season than they were producing under Andre Villas-Boas, but I also think Spurs won't be as naive as they were when they played for Tim Sherwood. That balance may help the club get back into Europe, but they are still a season away from tackling a top four berth unless there are more arrivals before the transfer window closes.


7. Everton: There were a lot of plaudits for Roberto Martinez and his performances as manager of Everton in his first season here at Goodison Park and he deserved most of it.

The side were close to a top four berth and the signing of Romelu Lukaku for £28 million suggests the board are firmly behind the Spaniard and his belief that Everton are a top four club in the making. My issues are that the defence is a year older and doesn't have a lot of depth behind Phil Jagielka and Sylvain Distin despite how well John Stones did last season.

I also believe Everton surprised teams last season and their squad is going to be pushed to the limit with the Europa League to negotiate as well as the Premier League. It will be interesting to see how Martinez gets the balance right between the competitions and they may just slip a little this time around.


8. Newcastle United: Alan Pardew is not the choice of the fans at St James' Park and his Newcastle United team were very inconsistent a year ago, but I can see them finishing with another top half position in the League table.

Newcastle United won 7 of their 19 away games which is good enough form to move them up the League table from their 10th place finish last season as long as they can improve at home where they lost 8 of 19 games.

Much depends on whether the new signings can blend with the current squad and I do almost have them here by default of them being better than the majority of the teams in the League, at least on paper. One of my best friends is a Newcastle fan so he might be a lot more pessimistic than I am, but I see the Magpies being the best of the rest in a League where the top seven look head and shoulders above the rest.


9. Stoke City: This is another team where I have almost had to end up with them here simply because I can't find any of the teams below them as being capable of finishing above Stoke City. That should be the method no matter where you place a team, but some teams are higher/lower based on potential pressure against them and new faces either in the manager's office or on the field.

Stoke City seem to be very settled with Mark Hughes getting the best out of the squad from last season. Adding in the likes of Bojan from Barcelona may give them a spark of creativity to finish in the top half again at the exact same position of last season.


10. Sunderland: Gus Poyet produced a wonderful finish for Sunderland last season and I think they can ride that momentum to the point of finishing way up the table this time around. Losing Fabio Borini back to Liverpool is a concern, although they could revive that transfer if Liverpool bring in more players to push the Italian down the order.

Signing Jordi Gomez gives them more creativity and Poyet clearly had the team listening to what he wanted as shown by their draw at Manchester City and win at Chelsea towards the end of last season.

That belief can see Sunderland finishing much clearer of relegation this season and perhaps even challenge Newcastle United for the 'best team in the North East' title. It wouldn't surprise me to see Sunderland sign a couple more players before the transfer window closes, but they can ride the momentum of last season to finish in the top half of the Premier League.


11. West Ham United: Andy Carroll is injured again, Sam Allardyce is seemingly always sitting on a warm seat and the fans are demanding much more from West Ham United this season. The board know the importance of avoiding a relegation with the move to the Olympic Stadium fast approaching so I believe they will stick with Allardyce who can help the Hammers push on up the table.

They are expected to be more attacking this season and I do think the signing of Enner Valencia will pay off for the manager after his performances at the World Cup. He looks to have the pace and power that should suit the Premier League and I believe this is a solid squad that can avoid the relegation battle as long as they can steer clear of the injuries that hurt the squad last season.

I really think Allardyce is a little disrespected as a manager as he usually does what is says on the tin- the manager will keep West Ham in the Premier League and perhaps finish far higher than the fans believe possible.


12. Southampton: Losing players of the calibre of Luke Shaw, Adam Lallana, Dejan Lovren and Rickie Lambert will have a negative effect on Southampton, as well as the new voice they will be hearing in the dressing room.

I have picked Southampton here because they still have enough quality in the team to beat those I have listed below them, but that also depends on keeping Morgan Schneiderlin and Jay Rodriguez as losing those players may be too much to overcome.

They also need Graziano Pelle to settle in immediately and provide the goals to keep the Saints afloat, but this may be a team to keep an eye on if they make a poor start to the season. Thankfully for the fans, there are teams in this Division that look really short of quality and I think Ronald Koeman will get enough out of the squad to prevent a really dramatic fall down the table.


13. Swansea: My initial thought about Swansea was that they were going to struggle this season after losing more key pieces of their squad in Michel Vorm, Ben Davies and Michu. However, Michu was oft-injured last season and Vorm has been replaced by Lukasz Fabianski who is a former Arsenal Number 1.

The biggest benefit for Swansea may be the fact they have kept Wilfried Bony to this point and that has me placing them a little higher in the table than I originally intended. If they lose Bony before the transfer window closes, Swansea may struggle for the goals to keep them in the Premier League, particularly as they are not as good defensively these days.

Last season the Europa League played havoc with a smaller squad and being out of that competition should help them get into a similar position as last season. Again though, I will reiterate that losing someone like Bony may see them slip into another relegation fight that they experienced last season.


14. Leicester City: It has been tough for Nigel Pearson to add to the squad in the manner he would have liked this summer, but Leicester City have been preparing for life in the Premier League for a couple of years now.

They had near misses when it came to promotion and Leicester should be very confident after winning the Championship last season. Pearson has made some interesting signings and I believe the squad are aware of what each other have to offer and can do enough to steer clear of the bottom three.

They do have investment funds, but I think Pearson is still looking to improve the squad and I can see more signings coming in over the next two weeks. They will likely play the loan market too and the Foxes can survive their first season back in the top flight.


15. Queens Park Rangers: Harry Redknapp is very capable of getting the best out of a squad at this level, but he will have to dig deep into his knowledge as Queens Park Rangers return to the top flight. The signing of Rio Ferdinand gives them experience, but there does look to be a lack of pace at the back and the question will be whether Charlie Austin can score enough goals at the higher level to keep QPR above water.

There is Premier League experience in the squad, but the key will be to make a better start than the last time they played at this level- they were behind the black ball by Christmas and even the arrival couldn't prevent QPR from being relegated.

Loftus Road form will be very important, but I think this Rangers team can find enough quality performances on their travels to just about maintain their place in the top flight.


16. Aston Villa: If there is one team that looks in huge danger, it would be Aston Villa on first glance- they are a team that has had little investment with an owner looking to sell the club, the manager is under pressure before a ball has been kicked and the best player is out with an injury.

Christian Benteke can't come back quick enough and there could be a real problem if the players annoy Roy Keane to the extent that there is disharmony in the squad.

I am not surprised that so many have tipped Aston Villa for relegation, but I think they can just about survive as long as they don't suffer huge injury problems. Joe Cole, Gabby Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann can fill in for Benteke until the Belgian returns and I do think he will give Villa enough goals to just about see off relegation for another season.


17. Hull City: Second season syndrome may be a huge concern for Hull City this season after a very successful last campaign. Survival was the key, but Hull had the bonus of an FA Cup run to the Final which means they do have to negotiate the Europa League, another hindrance on this year's survival battle.

Those extra games and travelling may put Hull City in a dangerous place in the Premier League and their form over the second half of last season was the third worst in the Premier League.

However, I think Bruce has made some good signings in Tom Ince and Robert Snodgrass that can help create more goals which may prove to be the difference when May comes around.

The defence can be very effective and the quality from Ince, Snodgrass, Jake Livermore and Tom Huddlestone may be enough to provide Nikica Jelavic the ammunition to keep the Tigers in the top flight.


18. Crystal Palace: Another manager that may not get the plaudits of those that love watching free-flowing football, but is very capable at this level is Tony Pulis.

He produced a wonderful performance to help Crystal Palace out of the relegation woods last season and I think he will make Palace difficult to beat again this year. That will help Palace avoid another relegation battle earlier this time around and Pulis can maintain his record as never suffered a relegation as a manager.

I expect Palace will be able to produce enough wins at Selhurst Park against those teams around them to finish comfortably clear of the bottom three.

EDIT: I had Crystal Palace in a much higher position prior to Thursday's stunning news that Tony Pulis has left the club- depending on the next appointment, Palace may be rife for a relegation battle and may not survive the drop this season.


19. West Brom: A team that was fortunate that the likes of Norwich City, Fulham and Cardiff City had such poor ends to last season was West Brom and I am not sure they have the quality to avoid the drop this season.

They have an inexperienced manager at the helm and the squad is going to need Brown Ideye to fit into the Premier League immediately if the Baggies are to find the goals to stay in the top flight.

West Brom just about found form last season to avoid relegation, but their last five games remind me of the Norwich City fixture list from last season and I think they are going to be in big trouble if they go into those games needing points to survive.


20. Burnley: Every where I have looked, Burnley look to be the big favourites to finish bottom of the Premier League, but Sean Dyche already exceeded expectations once by bringing Burnley into the top flight.

Avoiding the drop would be a remarkable achievement for the manager considering the lack of investment being made this summer, but this is a team that will work hard for one another and believe they can beat anyone at Turf Moor.

Making up the difference in quality from the Championship to the Premier League over thirty-eight games is incredibly tough though and this could be another one season stay in the top flight for Burnley as happened in the 2009/10 season.

Cincinnati Tennis Picks 2014 (August 13th)

I would love to know whose black cat I've run over, how many ladders I've walked under, how many mirrors I've cracked and whether I am living 'Groundhog Day' on a Friday the 13th because I can simply not get away from what feels like a terrible run of bad luck.

Just off the top of my head, I have picked players who have blown huge tie-break leads, players who have managed to lose sets from double break advantages, other players that seemingly created a thousand chances but can't break serve, but invariably will be broken in their next service game, and I am just about fed up to my back teeth.


Don't misunderstand- there have been some glaring bad picks too... I should never have picked Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win on Tuesday when I had voiced as many doubts about him as I had, but Stan Wawrinka's inability to finish the match in the second set despite having three match points at 53, another one at 54, and the chance to break serve again at 55, only to then take the first match point that came along in the tie-breaker had the steam coming out of my ears.

This came after Sabine Lisicki faced three break points (saved all three) in the first and third set COMBINED against Roberta Vinci, but somehow managed to be broken EVERY TIME (four games)  in the second set and the missed the cover by half a game.

How do you cap that? How can anyone possibly imagine a pick going down in that manner when Lisicki consistently had Vinci under pressure on her own serve but can suddenly completely collapse like that?

This has got to the point where I am taking some heavy hits, but am literally feeling like I am even a slight change of fortune away from moving back in the positive direction. The last seven days have cut the season totals by over 50% and that is simply down to the poor luck which would have covered the poor picks if players had finished what they had started.


So where will the picks go from here? That is a tough question to answer because I am now second guessing my own thoughts and that is not a good place to be. I do honestly believe that the majority of picks have been sound and if the chances had been taken, or players simply maintained any kind of level, they would have definitely helped produce more winning picks.

A disappointing end to last week coupled with an atrocious start to this one has put me in a foul mood, but hopefully Wednesday is the start of the fight back.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: This is the second consecutive week that these two players will be meeting one another and I expect that will help Tomas Berdych know what he is facing.

Berdych was the better player last week, but an ill-timed loss of serve allowed Lu to come back and take the first set before the Czech player managed a break more in the last two sets to come through. The big man had more chances to break serve and won plenty more points against the Lu serve and something similar should make this a more routine win.

It wasn't the perfect serving display from Berdych last week, so there are room for improvement there and if he can manage that I would expect him to make this a more routine day in the office.

The last two meetings between the players have been tight affairs, but their only other meeting in Cincinnati ended with a 63, 64 win for Berdych and I will look for a repeat of that scoreline today.


Andreas Seppi + 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: I do think Mikhail Youzhny, despite his strong head to head record against Andreas Seppi, is perhaps being over-rated for this match based on his win over a tired Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Tuesday.

As good as that win looks on paper, the fatigue Tsonga was feeling played a huge part and Youzhny has struggled mightily in 2014. He can win this match, but I have little doubt that he would need at least three sets to do that and that makes this number of games attractive to take in hand.

You can't forget that Seppi is not having the best of 2014 seasons himself, nor the fact that he has played some sloppy sets of tennis, but he did win the only match with Youzhny that has been played in this current campaign.

I have mentioned I can see this match being tightly contested and perhaps going three sets which could make these games very handy at the end of the day.


Marinko Matosevic + 2.5 games v John Isner: Backing a player against John Isner in front of his own supporters is always tough as being back on home soil seems to inspire the big American. He should have the ability to see off Marinko Matosevic, but their previous two matches have been very competitive and this one could go the same way.

When they met in Atlanta earlier this summer, it was another close first set that Matosevic perhaps should have won, before one poor service game cost the Australian the second set. That is the biggest problem for 'Mad Dog' as he can play erratic games on serve which would see this number of games mean nothing in the match.

However, he has a big serve and Matosevic should be able to use that to good effect as long as he keeps the first serve percentage above 60. We know Isner is going to ease his way through more service games than Matosevic, but the latter showed he can push the American on that aspect of his game when they met in Atlanta.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see two tie-breaks needed to separate these players, but I also think Matosevic is capable of taking at least one set and that could be enough to at least cover the games even in a losing effort.


Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Even though Marin Cilic is one of my more favourite players on the Tour, I am going to go against him for a second time this week with another big serving left handed Spaniard.

Fernando Verdasco should have the game that transfers seamlessly onto the hard courts with the heavy groundstrokes flying through the hard courts, but he is far more erratic than back in 2009-11 when he had his best years on the Tour.

That isn't to say he can't find vintage form at any time and I think Verdasco will definitely have more success against the Cilic second serve than his compatriot Feliciano Lopez did. Verdasco will have to serve well against an aggressive returner like Cilic, but I can see the first two sets being split and that should give Verdasco the chance to at least cover the games even in a losing effort.

My issue with Verdasco is that he can sometimes crumble in sets, but he would be able to get his eye in if this goes to three sets and I can see these games in hand being enough at odds against.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi + 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marinko Matosevic + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 1-7, - 12.10 Units (16 Units Staked, - 75.63% Yield)

Cincinnati Tennis Picks 2014 (August 12th)

I don't know whether it is because I have been doing some long hours of late, or whether I am just not quite thinking straight, but it has been an incredibly poor last seven days of picks. That poor run continued with the first day at the Cincinnati Masters/Premier Event and has been an irritating part of the season.

At least from Canada I could say there was two surprise winners and at least four surprise Semi Finalists in the two tournaments, but that doesn't mean I am enjoying 'missing' on so many picks.


The second day of action in Cincinnati means some of the big names on both Tours are beginning their tournaments and it is going to be a big week for the likes of Maria Sharapova, Stan Wawrinka and Serena Williams who need to set a marker down for the US Open. Wawrinka might be a strange name to include, but he hasn't been at his best over the last few weeks and is a Grand Slam Champion this season, something the likes of Roger Federer and Andy Murray haven't done in 2014.

Both Sharapova and Williams have had disappointing tournaments in Montreal with Serena struggling through to the Semi Final before being beaten comfortably by older sister Venus.


Feliciano Lopez + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: After a strong showing in Toronto last week, it can be tough for players to back up a successful week and it will be interesting to see if Feliciano Lopez can do that against Marin Cilic.

It is one of the toughest First Round matches in Cincinnati this week with both players capable of playing well on the hard courts, although the edge in the match may go down in favour of Marin Cilic.

Both players have decent serves, but Cilic certainly has the better return game, although Lopez may be able to have some success by extracting errors off the Cilic forehand with Lopez' backhand slice.

The Spaniard will also look to close on the net and keep the pressure on Cilic and their previous four matches have mostly been very competitive. Tiredness is a concern for Lopez, but I think he can make this competitive and make this small number of games very telling.


Vasek Pospisil v Radek Stepanek: This match has been set as a pick 'em contest in the First Round, but I think Vasek Pospisil has been in the better form in recent weeks and can make up for his early exit in his home tournament last week.

Pospisil can say he reached the Final of the tournament in Washington the week before and so may have been a little fatigued, but Radek Stepanek has lost three matches in a row and hasn't been in great form since his run to the Final at Queens.

The last couple of years has seen Stepanek struggle on the hard courts and he was dismissed by Pospisil in Montreal twelve months ago. While the veteran has the know-how to make life awkward for any opponent and can get under the skin of the player on the other side of the net, Pospisil should be able to use his serve to good effect in the contest.

It might be tighter than their previous meeting, but Pospisil should come through even if it takes three sets.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: It was by far the biggest title that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has won his career as far as I am concerned and the manner of his victory in Toronto should inspire him ahead of the US Open.

My only question in this match is whether Tsonga has had enough time to come off the high of the performance he put in last week where he recorded wins over Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer to take the title home. That Final was played on Sunday and that doesn't leave a lot of time to celebrate and travel to Cincinnati to get used to the conditions here.

Mikhail Youzhny has won half of the six previous matches between these players, but two of those wins came in Tsonga retirements and he is having a terrible 2014 which hasn't produced the tennis it would take to beat Tsonga in the form he displayed last week.

The tiredness is hard to factor in, but I expect Tsonga can win this one 64, 64 and continue the form he has been displaying last week.


Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Since the Australian Open win, Stanislas Wawrinka has won the Monte Carlo Masters, but he has struggled for consistency since January. Where he has a Quarter Final appearance in Wimbledon, Wawrinka has a First Round loss at the French Open, and he was beaten early in Toronto last week.

The Second Round match with Benjamin Becker won't be easy considering the German has been in decent form through the summer on the hard courts.

Becker has a powerful serve that is perhaps under-rated and if that part of his game is in form, he will make it difficult for Wawrinka. However, anything extended off the ground should give the Swiss player the opportunity to dictate the points although he has to remove some of the unforced errors that can blight his game.

Earlier this year, Wawrinka crushed Becker for the loss of four games- I expect this to be much closer but the higher Ranked player to come through 75, 63.


Sabine Lisicki - 3.5 games v Roberta Vinci: Last week in Montreal, Sabine Lisicki crushed Sara Errani and I do feel she can do something similar to the Italian's Doubles partner Roberta Vinci in this First Round match.

A good summer for Vinci was not enough to see her come through her first match in Montreal last week and this year has seen more and more players get the better of her. Players recognise what is generally coming off the backhand and the power of the likes of Lisicki should prove to be the difference between the players.

Lisicki also had a couple of decent wins last week and was only beaten by the eventual winner of the tournament and even that match took three sets to separate them.

As long as she doesn't push too much and make too many errors, Lisicki should be able to record a similar kind of win as she had against Errani and come through fairly comfortably.

MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 2.5 Games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Cincinnati Tennis Picks 2014 (August 11th)

Sometimes you have to take a step back from the tennis picks that you are making and try to figure where things are not quite going right- that was the situation at the end of the tournaments in Canada last week when I seemed to get things so wrong after a very positive start to the week.

It meant the picks ended the week with a losing record despite the early positives and I decided to take that step back.


There were some strange results through the week that didn't help, none more so than the Jo-Wilfried Tsonga winning the tournament in Toronto. It was an impressive title win with victories over Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer during the tournament and it will be interesting to see if Tsonga has turned a corner after an average 2014 to this point.

Tsonga was serving huge in Toronto, but his return of serve had been just as impressive and I am looking forward to seeing how he backs that up in Cincinnati this week.


It wasn't just the men's tournament that saw some surprising results- Maria Sharapova was beaten in Montreal by Carla Suarez Navarro, while both Petra Kvitova and Serena Williams lost matches that most would have expected them to win.

All of these results in Toronto may have muddied the waters for the likely winners of the final Grand Slam of the season at the US Open which is now only two weeks away, but that could all change again if the event in Cincinnati is more 'predictable'.


After the struggles of last week, I really hope I can bounce back this week after making some very poor picks to be brutally honest.

With the layers catching up with the tennis markets, I will have picks up from the first day of the tournament very soon.


Jeremy Chardy v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Both of  these players have decent serves and heavy groundstrokes, but both can also be too inconsistent to really challenge the very best players consistently.

Of the two, Jeremy Chardy might be in a good position as the underdog to surprise Philipp Kohlschreiber as he has never lost to the German on the professional circuit and was in decent nick last week in Toronto even if he was beaten in the Second Round.

The loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga doesn't look that bad considering how well Tsonga did the rest of the week and it is arguable that Chardy was the player who pushed him the most in a week where Tsonga beat Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer.

That kind of form may prove a little too good for Kohlschreiber who has lost the last three matches he has played and I like the Frenchman in an underdog spot here.


Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Federico Delbonis has had a decent season on the clay courts in 2014, but he has yet to transfer that form onto the hard courts where he has lost all five matches he has played on the main Tour.

That includes another First Round loss last week in Toronto and he may find himself on the wrong end of another defeat by Gael Monfils if the latter can bring in the form he displayed in Toronto. Monfils pushed Novak Djokovic all the way last week and has the athleticism to really give Delbonis plenty of problems, while the weight of shot can also keep the Argentinian on the back foot.

It will be the key to the match for Monfils to remain aggressive- the Frenchman can be guilty of becoming comfortable in rallies and believing in his own ability to get plenty of balls back in court, but that might play into Delbonis' hands.

Delbonis might be able to settle into the match if that happens, but he has generally been beaten comfortably on this surface this season and I do believe Monfils can come through 63, 64.


Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The last few weeks on the Tour haven't been the best for Dominika Cibulkova, but she has generally produced her best tennis on the hard courts and can come through this tough First Round encounter with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The Russian has been in better form of the two players, but her movement may be exposed by Cibulkova in this one, especially if the latter can bring in the aggression she is capable of showing.

However, it does have to be remembered that Cibulkova has lost three of her last four matches on the Tour, including a surprise defeat to Heather Watson last week in Montreal. That would be a concern if she is not quite to form because Pavlyuchenkova can certainly produce tough tennis which makes her difficult to beat.

Their last two matches have been won by Cibulkova, but neither came easily and this may need three sets again. However, I think the diminutive Slovakian can come through 63, 46, 64.

MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 10-13, - 6.40 Units (46 Units Staked, - 13.91% Yield)

Season 2014: + 30.08 Units (1271.5 Units Staked, + 2.37% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2014 (August 8th)

It's wasn't a great Thursday thanks to some misfortune and one of the most surprising results I have seen in some time.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga producing fireworks isn't something new, but beating Novak Djokovic 62, 62 was a huge result for him.

Without question it was his best performance of 2014 and I am looking forward to seeing how he bounces back against Andy Murray in that Quarter Final.

I'm having an incredibly busy day at work today so I won't have the usual breakdown of why I have made the following picks.

The fact I'm writing this off my mobile phone doesn't help either as I needed to be out of the office.

Suffice to say, I'll update weekly totals ahead of the Semi Finals as well as getting back to the usual level of detail.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2014 (August 7th)

A strong week to this point could have been even better if Andreas Seppi didn't blow a big lead in the final set tie-breaker, but I won't complain too much about that with plenty of positive results so far.

I never like seeing a pick get beaten in the manner that Seppi was simply as he was the better player and I will have days where I am on the 'wrong' player where I might not have the luck to get through with a winner. It felt like Seppi was the 'right' player to back after the performance which made it a shame he couldn't complete the win, but hopefully I'll have a make up pick somewhere along the week.


These short Masters/Premier Event weeks means we really have to wait to see the layers catch up with the markets as we reach the Third Round and that means I won't be putting up picks from the Thursday tennis until the morning.

The picks should be out by lunchtime, which is still plenty of time before the first match of the day is scheduled to begin in Toronto/Montreal. At that point, I will update the weekly totals and hope for another positive day from the picks.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Novak Djokovic has taken complete control of matches between himself and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ever since he made the meteoric rise to the very top of the men's game in 2011. After initially losing five of the first seven matches between these players, Djokovic has won twelve in a row against Tsonga since Wimbledon 2011 and only a couple of those matches have been very competitive.

Djokovic did have to battle through his first match in Toronto, but that can be expected sometimes as a player adjusts to the hard courts following his win at Wimbledon last month.

He has also won both Masters events held on North American soil this season and Djokovic might be ready to push on again in the Rankings after breaking his poor run in big matches with the win at Wimbledon. The little things can make all the difference at this level and that little more belief makes him the favourite to win here, in Cincinnati and at the US Open.

I do respect what Tsonga is capable of bringing to a tennis court, but he hasn't been at his best in 2014 and his serve has not been at a dominant level. With Djokovic's return game, I can see him winning this 63, 64.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Tommy Robredo: After being forced to pull out at Washington with some sort of illness, Grigor Dimitrov struggled early on in his Second Round win over Donald Young, but was back to near his best at the end of the match.

He should feel confident of levelling the head to head with Tommy Robredo, especially on a hard court, and I do think his overall game is going to be too much for the veteran Spaniard.

The next few weeks can see Grigor Dimitrov really push on for a place at the World Tour Finals for the first time and he doesn't have a lot of points to defend so a move up from his current place of Number 8 in the World Rankings is a distinct possibility.

I have a lot of respect for Tommy Robredo, but he has generally found the better players too good ever since he beat Roger Federer at the US Open last season. While his know-how may make this more competitive than some think, Dimitrov should be able to pull off a 64, 75 win.


Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Andy Murray was close to his best in dismissing Nick Kyrgios in the Second Round on Wednesday and he will need to produce top tennis if he is going to beat Richard Gasquet in this Third Round match.

Since his back injury, Andy Murray has failed to reach the heights on the Tour that many expect of him and that is shown by his current Number 9 position in the World Rankings. He has struggled against the every best players on the Tour, but he has the return game and consistency to keep Gasquet on the back foot in this one.

The Frenchman had to dig deep to book his place in the Third Round with tough wins over Vasek Pospisil and then coming from a set down to beat Ivo Karlovic. Gasquet has been inconsistent since a back injury prior to the French Open and I can see Murray frustrating him and forcing the errors that should lead to a straight sets win.

A break of serve more in each set should be in the offing for Murray who can come through 75, 64.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: When I first saw the amount of games that Roger Federer is being asked to give up in this match, I wasn't convinced that this was a smart choice, but the odds have persuaded me against my misgivings.

As well as Marin Cilic has played, he can be a little loose on service games so I can see the aggressive Roger Federer return paying dividends in games. If the match gets into a forehand to forehand battle, I would like Federer's chances to win the rallies, while the former World Number 1 has an improved backhand that can at least keep him in rallies and find the depth to pressure opponents.

Federer's serve is not the weapon it used to be in the peak of his powers, but he still has very good placement and that should give him a chance to hold on to serve a little more comfortably than his opponent.

Both players should find breaks of serve, but Federer may just come out with a 63, 64 win.


Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Shelby Rogers: Since the break-up with Rory McIlroy, Caroline Wozniacki has really picked up form on the WTA Tour including winning the title in Istanbul.

Of course, Wozniacki is facing a Shelby Rogers who is off a huge win, perhaps the biggest of her career, and has won four matches here so will be feeling that much more confident.

However, young players can find it difficult to back up a big win when they are inexperienced and Rogers was helped by Eugenie Bouchard's nerves in the Second Round match. That shouldn't be the case for Wozniacki who has been winning matches very comfortably over the last few weeks and who seems to be playing with renewed focus that took her to the top of the World Rankings.

I was impressed with the power that Rogers displayed in her win over Bouchard, but coming off that high may be difficult, while Wozniacki is one of the best defensive players on the WTA Tour. I expect the Dane to get enough balls back in play to make Rogers play too many shots and force those errors and that should lead to a 64, 62 win for the former World Number 1.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Lucie Safarova: Serena Williams was at her very best in crushing Samantha Stosur on Wednesday and clearly has earned something from her win in Stanford last week. While this hasn't been a vintage year for Williams up to this point, that performance against Stosur shows what she is still capable of when she has her head fully in the game.

The American World Number 1 must know that she will have to bring that kind of form into this match against a Lucie Safarova who has been enjoying her best season on the Tour since 2011.

The run to the Wimbledon Semi Finals has to be taken as an inspiration for Safarova and she has given some of the best players on Tour competitive matches all season. She has pushed Na Li, Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova to three sets on the hard courts, but all in losing efforts, and Safarova has a serve that can see her rumble through games.

However, Safarova is going to face some aggressive returning and anything like the form that Serena showed yesterday should be enough to see her come through 64, 62 in this one.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Toronto/Montreal Weekly Update: 9-5, + 7.60 Units (28 Units Staked, + 27.14% Yield)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2014 (August 6th)

It has been a good start to the week for the picks, even in the face of an absolute capitulation from Eugenie Bouchard in her Second Round loss on Tuesday, and hopefully that can be built upon over the next few days.

There is also good news for the fans that are attending Toronto/Montreal with the weather forecast calling for zero amount of rain in the coming days after a wet start to the week. Fortunately the tournament remains on schedule and the big names will have all got their first matches of the hard court season under their belt by the time play concludes on Wednesday.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: Playing in Canada is usually a lot of fun for the French players with that language being a popular one in the east of the country and Jeremy Chardy will have good memories of his last appearance in Toronto.

Two years ago, Jeremy Chardy beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in straight sets here and he reached the Third Round, but it might be a big ask of him to beat his compatriot on current form.

As effective as Chardy's first serve can be, his second is much more vulnerable than Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's and I think it is going to be hard for him to maintain the rallies in the face of the power he will be seeing on the other side of the net.

Tsonga is also off a very good performance against Edouard Roger-Vasselin and I would expect the former top ten player to come through 63, 76.


Andreas Seppi v Ivan Dodig: Andreas Seppi has won all four previous matches against Ivan Dodig and he may be able to make that five in a row against a player that hasn't played much tennis in two months.

As good as his win over John Isner in the First Round was, Ivan Dodig hadn't played since the French Open and it will be interesting to see how quickly he can recover to play another tough looking match. Dodig has at least had a day between matches, but Seppi has been able to neutralise him in the past and that has to also weigh on his mind.

It hasn't been a good 2014 for Seppi who has been inconsistency personified and he hasn't won two matches in a row since the French Open. The hard courts show up his serve on a surface where a break of serve can end the set, but I think his added fitness may prove to be the difference in this one.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this go three sets, but Seppi looks a sound pick as the underdog.


Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Tim Smyczek: He might have the serve that should be very effective on the faster surfaces, but there is little doubt that Feliciano Lopez' return game leaves something to be desired. In saying that, he can build scoreboard pressure and is off an impressive First Round win over Roberto Bautista-Agut and I think he can move past the American Tim Smyczek in this one.

Smyczek did well to qualify for the Masters here in Toronto and he has won all six set he has competed in the tournament, but there is a feeling that his mind could quickly turn to qualifying for Cincinnati next week.

His serve has been vulnerable on the hard courts this summer and Lopez slices enough balls back in play to expose errors in the Smyczek game.

As long as Lopez also serves well to keep the pressure on Smyczek, I believe he can win this match 76, 63.


Jack Sock + 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: Milos Raonic did very well to win the biggest tournament of his career to date last week in Washington, but backing that up at home could be more difficult as it proved for Vasek Pospisil yesterday.

However, Raonic has dominated Jack Sock and has beaten him three times already this season, including in Washington last week.

We all know what to expect from the Raonic serve, but Sock has a decent serve himself and there is definitely more belief in his play since winning the Doubles title at Wimbledon. Sock has played a couple of Semi Finals in the Singles tournaments since Wimbledon and was a dominant winner in the First Round here and I do think he can cause problems for Raonic, especially if fatigue is a factor.

Their three matches played on the hard courts over the last twelve months have all been keenly contested with Sock being able to cover if handed this amount of games. I backed against him last week, but I think Sock has the serve and belief to keep this competitive, as well as Raonic coming off a 'high' with his title win in Washington.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: Yen-Hsun Lu can be a very difficult opponent to shake off as Tomas Berdych found out last year in Bangkok when he needed two tie-breakers to beat Lu.

However, I am expecting this to be a little more straight-forward for him on the current form Lu has been displaying- since winning a Challenger title at home, Lu has moved to North America and suffered a couple of very easy losses to players at a level below what Berdych can produce.

Lu had a decent, but expected, win over Marcel Granollers in the First Round and Berdych wasn't at his best in Washington last week, but this should be a portion of the season that suits very well for the Czech player.

This is another match where Berdych serving well could produce enough pressure on Lu to perhaps push too hard and the top ten player should come through 64. 63.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Samantha Stosur: Serena Williams won the title in Stanford last week, but she was tentative at times, although I expect to see an improvement now that her body held up. She started off very slowly which put her under pressure, but Williams ended most matches playing up to the dominant level we have come to expect over the last two years.

On the other hand, Samantha Stosur has had a poor time on the court since the French Open even compared to her usual struggles on the grass. She then suffered a disappointing early exit in Stanford and has not been as strong on the hard courts as her serve should help her be.

It is now three years since Stosur surprised Williams to win the US Open, but she has been dismissed fairly comfortably in the next two matches and is not playing at anything near the level it took to win a Grand Slam title.

Williams hasn't been serving as well as she can either so this match may feature a few more breaks of serve than people may expect with the players on the court. Once the dust is settled though, I expect Serena has moved into the Third Round with a 75, 62 win in the bag.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jack Sock + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Toronto/Montreal Weekly Update: 6-2, + 7.20 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45% Yield)