World Cup 2018 Group Picks (June 25-28)

The football at the World Cup may not have always been the most high quality, but there has been plenty of attacking in play and a lot of intriguing moments.

Things should begin to heat up now in the final round of Group games which are effectively knock out games for a number of nations, while others are more comfortable and preparing for the Second Round which begins this weekend.

We have already seen a number of nations bid farewell to Russia and who will be completing their final scheduled fixtures this week before boarding on a flight to get some well earned rest before the European Football season recommences in around six to seven weeks time. Some of the fans will be missed, most notably the Peruvians, while another couple of well backed South American nations are on the brink of elimination with 'must win' games coming up this week for Argentina and Colombia.

It does look like a tournament that could produce some top games in the Second Round with the potential to see France vs Argentina, Spain vs Uruguay and Brazil vs Germany all coming up depending on how results go this week. That is big news for the neutrals but perhaps less exciting for anyone who has backed the five favourites this week knowing there is a real chance for up to three exiting before the Quarter Final.

Perhaps this really is the year for a big priced winner at the World Cup like we have seen in the European Championship in recent years. Belgium, Mexico and Croatia have been stand out teams in the Group so far and all won't be too displeased with the potential route to the Semi Final and from there who knows that could happen.

And then there is England... Two positive results is building the optimism around a young group of players, but winning Group G, which they lead after the 6-1 win over Panama, might actually be a poisoned chalice in the grand scheme of things.


So far this World Cup has been a decent one for the Picks made as you can see below, but I do want more consistency. A missed penalty here and a couple of teams failing to capitalise on situations have let me down, but they have been balanced out by late goals for others which means I have to be satisfied with the results so far.

This week could be more difficult with teams likely looking to rest players in anticipation of the Second Round while some heads may have dropped thanks to early exits. With perhaps a more difficult minefield to negotiate, I would think it is wise to restrict stakes on some matches with bigger games to come later in the tournament.


Monday 25th June
Saudi Arabia v Egypt Pick: This has been a disappointing World Cup for both Saudi Arabia and Egypt who would have been hoping to at least be in contention for a Last 16 spot going into the final round of Group games. Instead both have been eliminated after being beaten in both Group games played so far, although the chance to win a World Cup game has to give the players motivation.

I am not too sure I can back Egypt at odds on when you hear the stories coming out of the camp that Mohamed Salah is considering retirement from the national team after some poor photo ops arranged by his nation.

He is clearly not at 100% either and I do think Egypt will be dealing with more disappointment than Saudi Arabia as I genuinely think they believed they could make the Second Round. That is hard to pick yourself up from and I do think Saudi Arabia are perhaps good enough to capitalise on that.

They were very poor against Russia, but much improved when taking on Uruguay and a similar level of performance to the latter will give Saudi Arabia a chance of at least securing a World Cup point.

Saudi Arabia have lost 4 of their 6 previous matches against Egypt which would be a concern, but their players might have more left emotionally to give to this tournament. Keeping even a half fit Salah quiet won't be easy, but I think Saudi Arabia will at least keep this competitive if they cannot steal a point and I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap.


Uruguay v Russia Pick: In a tournament that has produced plenty of goals and not a single goalless draw it is perhaps a surprise that I will be going to a market like the one I will for the Uruguay and Russia final Group A game.

Both teams have already made it through to the Second Round and at the moment it is Russia who will go in as Group Winners which likely means avoiding playing Spain in the Last 16. Instead they are likely to be paired up with either Portugal or Iran depending on how that game develops on Monday evening and I think that is motivation enough for both of these nations to look to finish top of Group A.

But even then I don't expect Uruguay to suddenly rip up their own script and play an expansive style of football. They knew goal difference could be important last week and that didn't see them produce a lot of urgency in the 1-0 win over Saudi Arabia which saw Uruguay struggle in open play and rely on a set piece goal.

It is also quite difficult to get a real read on Russia whose distance covered numbers are eye opening to say the least, especially when you think of some of the dubious moves made in the past. However they have not played anyone of the calibre of Uruguay who won't make the mistakes at the back that contributed to the heavy losses Saudi Arabia and Egypt suffered against this Russian team.

Instead I think Uruguay will be well organised and I would fancy them having a good chance to stifle the hosts. The actual game will be a good watch depending on how much Uruguay push to try and win it and finish as Group Winners, but I am not convinced they will change their hard to beat tactics and hope for some magic from Luis Suarez or Edinson Cavani.

With that in mind I will have a small interest on these teams combining for less than two goals on Monday with a real chance the game crawls to the finish if they are tied with 20 minutes left to play.


Iran v Portugal Pick: While everything has been settled in Group A which is concluded on Monday afternoon, on Monday evening we have two Group B games with three of the four nations still fighting it out for the top two positions in the Group.

The more important match is being played in Saransk where Iran face Portugal and the winning team will be making it through to the Last 16. It is Portugal who hold the slight edge having drawn with Spain to ensure they are a point clear of Iran going into the final round of Group games, but the European Champions have been far from convincing and were very fortunate to beat Morocco last time out.

An early Cristiano Ronaldo goal gave them something to hold onto, but it was only some terrible finishing from Morocco at key times which prevented them from sharing the spoils which was the least they deserved. I imagine that will have given Fernando Santos more reason to try and batten down the hatches and not offer the same sort of encouragement to Iran.

I expect Iran to also be well organised knowing they only need one goal to make it through to the Last 16 and Carlos Queiroz won't shift too dramatically from the style that has made them hard to beat. Only a correctly awarded offside decision by the VAR prevented Iran from stealing a point against Spain and I imagine we are going to see plenty more valiant defending to try and stay in the game as long as possible.

It does feel like this could be a fixture where both teams stand off one another for the first 60 minutes knowing they don't want to give the other too many chances. Cristiano Ronaldo is the difference maker who is capable of something magic to break down any well organised defensive unit, but I expect Queiroz will have drilled his defenders with tips to deal with a player he is very familiar with.

A lack of goals in the Iran team is a major concern for them, but they will feel they can create something as long as they are in this game and it feels like a tight game could develop. Outside of the 3-3 draw between Portugal and Spain, Group B has not been blessed with a lot of goals as the other three games have all ended 1-0.

Fernando Santos won't be worrying about pleasing the crowd and will set his Portugal team up to be tough to beat and I don't believe we will see a lot of goals. An early goal will change the entire feeling of the match though, which is a concern, but I will back less than two goals to be scored here for a small interest in this important Group B fixture.


Spain v Morocco Pick: It is going to take something a little special to happen to prevent Spain from making it through to the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals, but they still have work to do if they want to win Group B.

On the face of things it does feel like winning this Group is going to offer the better passage in the Knock Out Stage, although that could become a little clearer once Group A is completed on Monday afternoon. Either way I don't think there is much difference between playing Uruguay or the hosts Russia with both tough games to come in the Second Round, while further ahead the Group Winner likely takes on Croatia in the Quarter Final and the Runner Up will be paired with France.

That should mean Fernando Hierro is just concentrating his players on making it out of the Group by beating the already eliminated Morocco.

A late goal in the first game and an early goal in the second game have seen Morocco beaten 1-0 twice by Iran and Portugal, but I don't think anyone can really tell me how that has happened. Morocco have been the better team in both of those fixtures, but poor finishing has let them down.

Scoring a World Cup goal is still not beyond them though as Spain have looked a little vulnerable at the back. We know Portugal managed three in the first game, but Iran had a couple of very threatening moments and I think this Morocco team are better going forward than the Iranians are even if they have yet to show that on the scoreboard. I certainly think Morocco will have some opportunities in this one and they can give Spain something to think about, even if ultimately the Spanish side will find a way to break them down.

I did consider backing both teams to score in this one, but I do still lean towards Spain wanting to win the Group and I think they will have enough quality to do that. It is hard to really trust Morocco to take the chances they create, but I think they could be playing with a 'nothing to lose' attitude which will help the composure so a small interest on Spain winning a match where both teams get on the scoreboard looks worth backing.


Tuesday 26th June
Australia v Peru Pick: The situation has become clear for both Australia and Peru with one barely hanging on to their World Cup status and one already heading home.

It will be sad to see Peru departing from the World Cup after their fans have lit up the tournament, but those fans will say they are just happy to see their nation on the biggest stage again. Surprisingly Peru have yet to give them something to really shout about having lost both games played without scoring a goal, but they have had chances and they can provide some joy by getting after Australia.

For the Australians the 1-1 draw against Denmark might have felt a disappointment as they made much of the running in the second half and had the best opportunities in the game. It has left them three points behind the Danes with one game to play and Australia know they have to beat Peru and hope France can beat Denmark to have any chance of reaching the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals.

It is a tough position to be in knowing a point would suit both Denmark and France in achieving their goals, but Australia cannot think like that and have to make sure they do their job on the day.

This is far from an easy game for Australia who have needed two penalties to score in the World Cup. The attacking play hasn't been bad, but there is a feeling Australia will struggle for a lot of goals from open play, although they do have the bonus of being a big team that could cause Peru problems from set plays if the delivery is right.

Peru will also feel they have something to prove here after limping to a loss to the French team last time out. It was almost like they were unaware how damaging a loss would have been, but they were better against Denmark and I think the creativity they do have will see them get on the scoreboard.

With the situation as it is I can see Australia taking risks to score the goals they need to progress too and I am looking at the teams both getting a goal in this one. I think they go one further than that too and I will back at least three goals shared out between two teams who will feel they have missed opportunities already in the World Cup.


Denmark v France Pick: As soon as the second round robin of Group C games were completed there would have been a rush from the layers to significantly shorten the price of Denmark and France playing out a draw. This is clearly a result that would suit both as France would win the Group and Denmark would be guaranteed a place in the Last 16.

However I am not completely convinced France are going to play ball here.

There is a precedent though which has to worry Australia- France have not won their third Group game at a major international tournament since the 2006 World Cup and that was a game they had to win to make it out of the Group. There has been a single Group Stage exit in the time since at the 2010 World Cup, but more worrying for Australia has to be the fact that France have drawn 0-0 in their last two major tournament Finals in the final Group game and those have come after winning the opening two matches.

Both times the draw suited France who were able to move through as Group Winners, and last time at the Euro 2016 Finals the draw was good against the team who were 2nd in the Group and would have ensured they finished in that position with a point.

That simply doesn't bode well for Australia here and Denmark are organised enough to try and keep France at arm's length before both teams perhaps decide they will conserve energy for another day. I hate to think like that, but I would be foolish to ignore it and the 0-0 draw is where my interest lies.

We have yet to see one at the World Cup in 2018, but I can't ignore how much it will suit both nations in this one. I can't imagine Denmark risk trying to win the Group unless they hear Australia are losing heavily in the other game in the Group, but even then they won't want to risk a loss when a point is all they need.

France may make some changes and will be good to get out of Group C as the Winners and so a very small interest in the goalless draw is warranted for me here. Others may play 'No Goalscorer' which covers an own goal separating these sides, but I will back the goalless draw and see if France are involved in that scoreline in their third Group game for the third major tournament in a row.


Iceland v Croatia Pick: The biggest fear for Argentina had to have been anything but a Nigeria win in the match against Iceland as they chewed over their 0-3 defeat to Croatia from the previous evening.

I very much thought an Iceland win would have seen these two nations accept a draw which would have helped both achieve their goals. Even a draw in the Nigeria-Iceland match would have had me leaning towards a poor day in the office for Croatia which would have seen Iceland secure the result that took them through to the Last 16 behind Croatia.

The Nigeria win on Friday means everything changes for Iceland as they have to get forward and find a way to create chances and score the goals they will need if they want to sneak through to the Last 16. A 1-0 win would be good enough to secure a second place position if Argentina only beat Nigeria by a one goal margin, but even winning this game won't be easy for Iceland.

There is a feeling Croatia could ease off the gas now they are through to the Last 16 and almost certainly going to progress as Group Winners. However they won't want to lose any momentum with the Second Round to come in a few days time and I do think the layers have factored the potential lack of intensity into the price for the Croatia win.

I would have been very much eyeing up Croatia perhaps slipping and not concentrating if a defeat meant Argentina were knocked out of the tournament, but this is a team that think they can go very far in the World Cup. After crushing Argentina I don't think Croatia worry about the fate of the South Americans now and instead are focusing on getting out of the Group with another strong performance.

They could make some changes to the starting eleven, but Croatia should be able to still dictate play and they certainly have the talent to expose Iceland if the latter have to chase the game. At some Iceland will have to take chances and that is when I believe Croatia will be able to find some openings which help them win this game.

Being able to back Croatia on the Asian Handicap at odds against knowing half my stake will be returned if the game ends in a draw looks very big. A team who have looked as good as any in the World Cup will have a few days to rest and get ready for the Last 16 Knock Out tie and I think Croatia will want to go into that with the momentum that comes from winning games.

With Iceland likely having to change their style and getting out of the comfort zone at some point, I like Croatia to win this game and will back them to do so on the Asian Handicap.


Nigeria v Argentina Pick: From the depths of despair on Thursday evening came the optimism of Friday afternoon for Argentina fans who know their nation is still very much alive in the World Cup Finals. After losing to Croatia so many would have expected Argentina to be returning home, but Nigeria's win over Iceland on Friday means a win could be good enough for Argentina to make the Last 16 of the 2018 World Cup.

This nation have not missed out on making the Last 16 since 2002 and Argentina fans would not have had much hope after two disappointing performances. There is still so much talent in the forward areas, but Argentina have not transitioned to the attacking side of their game as they would have liked and it has been easy for teams to mark Lionel Messi and prevent this team ticking.

I expect Jorge Sampaoli to take all the risks in this one and I would not be surprised to see another change of system which will bring in Paulo Dybala to offer more creativity in the final third. That could free up Messi, who is still the key for Argentina, but the defensive problems means Argentina will always be vulnerable in this one.

They are facing a Nigeria team who will be confident after a deserved 2-0 win over Iceland in their last game when they were considerably better than in the 0-2 defeat to Croatia. The pace in the forward positions will make Nigeria a threat if they are willing to take risks by getting at the Argentina defence and this feels like a game that will see plenty of chances at both ends of the field.

The onus is on Argentina to get forward and score goals and that should make this an open game with Nigeria expected to be very dangerous if they get their counter attacks right. The 4-2 friendly win over Argentina in November 2017 should give Nigeria some belief even if they have faced this nation four times in the World Cup Finals in twenty-four years and been beaten each time.

The last 4 games between Nigeria and Argentina have featured plenty of goals including a 3-2 win for Argentina in the 2014 World Cup Group Stage. There have been at least four goals scored in the last 4 between these nations and I think it will be another attacking game of football in a Group which has seen plenty of chances created by teams even if only one of the four Group games has featured more than two goals shared out.

All four Group games have got to two goals shared out and the situation is clear for both teams in this one to think there will be chances created throughout the ninety minutes. That should mean we see at least three goals in this one and that is my selection from the game.


Also I have this to say to anyone who has backed the same selections from the outright preview of this Group- after selecting both Argentina and Croatia to fail to qualify for the Last 16 we have a 9/2 shot on our side here. I would suggest there is a position to be locked in here by backing Argentina to qualify at 1.72 in various places although I do think that is a short price.

There is a clear path through for Argentina though and you can secure a profit by having some cash on them to get out of the Group if already backed Argentina to miss out on the Last 16.


Wednesday 27th June
Mexico v Sweden Pick: For most teams winning two games in the Group would be enough to make it through to the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals, but Mexico's position has yet to be secured. They are still very much favourites to win this Group, but the danger is a 2-0 defeat to Sweden coupled with a Germany win by a couple of goals would be enough to see Mexico slip down to 3rd in this section and see them head home before the Knock Out Rounds.

It is a big ask for Sweden to do that considering the absolute hammer of an emotional blow they took when losing to ten man Germany deep into injury time. A point in that game would have meant the Swedes needed just a point from this one to see off the defending World Champions but instead they are now going to have to come out of their comfort zone.

A one goal win would be enough for Sweden to make it through to the Last 16 so they could delay going hell for leather in this one, but they have to show a little more forward thrust. There is a scenario where a draw would be enough and perhaps even a defeat, but most Swedish fans have to accept that Germany are most likely going to beat South Korea which means the pressure is on to win this game.

The temptation for Mexico to rest players has also been removed knowing a loss makes them the most likely team to exit the tournament. If Mexico lose and Germany win by two or more goals it will be Mexico heading home with the two European teams making it through to the Last 16 and that puts some pressure on the Mexican team.

However I think the energy Mexico have shown in the forward areas is hard to ignore and at some point in this one Sweden will have to try and get into attacking areas and commit men. The first half could be a slow burner as the teams just get a feel for one another, but the tension will ramp up and I am favouring Mexico to find the right answers.

Sweden have created chances and scored in both games played so far which has been a surprising aspect of their play. That should give them some confidence, but picking yourself up from the devastating defeat to Germany is going to be very difficult and I think backing Mexico on the Asian Handicap is the right play as they perhaps catch Sweden overcommitting at some point.


South Korea v Germany Pick: It looked like Germany were going to be the third straight defending World Cup Champion who would be exiting the next Finals in the Group Stage.

Then up stepped Toni Kroos to save the nation.

The 2-1 win over Sweden means Germany are in a strong position to make it through to the Last 16 but things are not as simple as they look. If Sweden have recovered mentally from the defeat to Germany, a 1-0 win would be enough to take them through to the Last 16.

In that situation Germany would need to win by a two goal margin or score more goals than Sweden in a one goal win and that would also mean they would be going through as Group Winners and avoid the potential Last 16 tie with Brazil which looks a huge possibility.

I don't think anyone in the German camp will be worrying about who they could potentially face in the Last 16 but instead want to take the lifeline they have earned and make it through to the Knock Out Rounds. They have to defend better than they have so far, but Germany will be confident they can beat a South Korea team who are almost heading home.

South Korea have not been very good in the tournament and they are heavily reliant on Son Heung-min who scored a special goal in the 1-2 defeat to Mexico which has put them on the brink of exiting the tournament. It will need a couple of huge upsets for South Korea to make it through to the Last 16 and they have to go on the search for goals, but that should play into the hands of Germany and I think the World Champions won't miss out on the opportunity they have created for themselves.

I expect Germany to dictate the tempo of this one and I think they have to show better defensive shape as they did in the second half against Sweden. I expect Germany to pick up from where they left off and I am pretty sure they are going to win this game by a decent margin even in a tournament where so many of the favourites have flattered to deceive in matches when set as a strong favourite.


Serbia v Brazil Pick: The two Last 16 places at the top of Group E are still very much up for grabs and one of those, at least, are going to either Serbia or Brazil. The winner of this match is going to definitely go through and I think this could make it an exciting game with both Serbia and Brazil better going forward than they are defending.

There is a situation in which Brazil can lose and still go through, but they will need a big favour from Costa Rica and the pressure is on another of the big nations.

Like many others, Brazil have made it harder work for themselves by not winning one of their two Group games played and they needed two very late goals to win the last one against Costa Rica. That has made them favourites to progress, but the fans back home will be demanding more from a team who had been flying in friendlies heading into the tournament in Russia.

I do wonder if the players are feeling the pressure of having to make up for the humiliating ending to the 2014 World Cup on home soil when Brazil conceded 10 goals in their final two games. They have been a little slow with their tempo and the players have not been as intense all over the pitch as the manager would like.

The situation in this one is better than the Costa Rica game as that team were content playing out for a point. This time Brazil are facing a team who have to come forward and score goals with a draw not going to be good enough for Serbia after losing 1-2 to Switzerland from a winning position on Friday.

Serbia now have to commit men forward, but they have shown enough to think they can challenge a Brazilian defence which is far from watertight. However I see a situation where they have to chase the game at times which may leave things open for Brazil to counter and finish this match off too and so my lean is the South American nation are able to win and likely win the Group.

My one concern is there is a potential for Brazil to settle for a draw if it means avoiding facing Germany in the Last 16 if it has been confirmed the World Champions have finished 2nd in Group F earlier in the day. A draw would likely be good enough for Brazil to finish 2nd in this Group, but it is a risky play and I think it is perhaps too risky at this point of the Group.

Backing Brazil to win a game where there is at least two goals scored in the match is the play for me here.


Switzerland v Costa Rica Pick: There was some real controversy out of the Switzerland win over Serbia with the latter very upset with the actions of the two goalscorers in that game. Both Granit Xhaka and Xherdan Shaqiri have avoided bans though and that is key for the Swiss who are looking to secure their place in the Last 16.

There shouldn't be too many problems for them in doing that even if Switzerland are a team that don't look as good as they perform. They work well as a team and facing an already eliminated opponent will mean Switzerland are very much in line to get the point they need to progress.

Some may be looking at something even better by winning the Group, but Switzerland could actually benefit from finishing 2nd and entering the weaker side of the Knock Out Stages.

With that in mind it is a surprise to see Switzerland as short as they are to win this match assuming Germany have finished 2nd in Group F. If that has happened earlier in the day I am not sure Switzerland are going to be pushing for a win in this one knowing a point would be good enough to secure 2nd place regardless of what has happened in the other game being played at the same time.

Costa Rica have not been very good in this tournament as the squad has not transitioned to a younger core in the four years since making the World Cup Quarter Final. They have shown some defensive strength to hold out against Brazil for the full 90 minutes before being undone in injury time, but in the other game against Serbia Costa Rica were poor.

What has happened is they have created chances in both games and I think Costa Rica will have their chances in this one too if Switzerland are just lacking a bit of forward intensity. It would be a surprise if the Swiss didn't have their own chances and in a World Cup that has featured plenty of goals this could be the latest to go down that route.

Instead of the over 2.5 goals option I will back both teams to score with the 1-1 a real player as far as I am concerned and that can be found at a similar price to the over option.


Thursday 28th June
Japan v Poland Pick: If you were to point to the biggest disappointment of the World Cup Finals so far I think Poland could be the team who would take that 'honour'.

Some would say Argentina, but at least Argentina go into their final Group game with Qualification to the Last 16 still an option, whereas Poland are out of the tournament after playing just two games. The manner of the losses have been so disheartening for Poland fans who would have been hoping they could have a big tournament after reaching the Euro 2016 Quarter Final and only being beaten on penalties by eventual Winners Portugal.

Instead they have barely been a threat in the first two games and now have nothing but pride to play for in the final game.

I expect Poland will have some opportunities to impress against a Japan team who have really overachieved at this point and are on the brink of making the Last 16. A point is needed to secure that spot else they will be keeping a keen eye on how things are going in the other game in the Group, but Japan have to be better defensively if they are going to earn that.

Playing an already eliminated opponent has to be a boost for Japan because they have the energy and work rate to make life difficult for Poland which could take away any remaining enthusiasm the European team will be feeling. Japan did not have big expectations in the tournament but have shown they can do enough from an attacking perspective to create opportunities and I don't think that will be any different in this match.

I'm not convinced about Japan, but Poland look in disarray and so I am leaning towards the Asian team earning a positive result. However it may not be easy with the defensive issues Japan have continued to demonstrate and I expect Poland will do everything they can to at least give their fans something to shout about.

Backing at least three goals to be scored in a match featuring these two teams is odds against and I like that option. All four games featuring these nations at the World Cup Finals have ended with at least three goals shared out and neither is sound enough defensively to believe that won't be the case here.

A 1-1 scoreline with the game running down is a concern as that would be enough for Japan to sit in and protect the point they are earning. However I think there may be enough defensive problems earlier in the game to see the three goals hit before we get to that stage of the game.


Senegal v Colombia Pick: You would think earning 4 points from the first couple of Group games would mean a team is in a comfortable position to believe they can make the Last 16 of the World Cup. However Senegal will know they are playing arguably the best team in the Group in their final game and a team who will be desperate to secure the three points they need to make it through to the Last 16 themselves.

This should not have been an issue for Senegal who beat Poland and then twice had the lead against Japan before being pegged back for a 2-2 draw. Now they are in a position where they have to earn a result against a confident Colombia side off the back of an impressive 3-0 win over Poland.

A defeat for Senegal would mean they are relying on already eliminated Poland to beat Japan and so this is a tough position for the African team to be in. They have shown enough going forward to think they can pose a threat, but the defensive work against Japan was very, very poor and the goalkeeper is not someone I would be very confident in.

Now they face Colombia who looked so impressive against Poland and who only lost their first game because they played that match with Japan for ten men for almost the entire game. With the players they have in forward areas Colombia will believe they can expose the Senegal back line as Japan did and I do think they can win this one.

Of course there is the risk of overcommitting if Colombia are still level with Senegal with the game into the final 20 minutes, but I think they are the better team and they can still win this Group. The onus is on Colombia, but they won't mind that with the quality they have in the final third.

They were sometimes guilty of overplaying in the final third or they misplaced the final ball which would have undone Poland, but Colombia should have enough here. I like the way Senegal go about things and I think their pace in the final third is a real problem to deal with, but Colombia are the better team with the better attacking players in a number of positions and I think they win this one in what could be a really good game of football.


England v Belgium Pick: Most expected the final game between England and Belgium to be a decider when it comes to winning Group G and that is how it has boiled down after both nations earned wins over Panama and Tunisia.

While it would have been expected that winning the Group was going to be important to both managers, the situation with Germany has really changed the landscape. If Germany don't win Group F, as is the expectation at the time of writing, then the team finishing in 2nd place in Group G will have a much 'easier' section of the Knock Out Stage to deal with.

That is only added to by the chance of Colombia failing to win Group H which means the team winning Group G could have to face Colombia and then Brazil or Germany just to make the Semi Final.

On the other hand the team finishing 2nd is potentially in line to face Japan and then the winner of Mexico and Switzerland which is clearly a much more enticing run to the Semi Final.

What does that all mean? It means this final game in the Group is one neither England or Belgium should really want to win and Belgium are going to be finishing 2nd because of their poorer disciplinary record if they don't win this one. Roberto Martinez has already made it clear he is going to make wholesale changes to his squad and I don't think anything that will have happened is going to change his mind now.

Could this be a controversial game where the teams are trying to rack up the bookings or potentially allowing the other to beat them? It does raise some questions when you think of the obvious advantage of finishing 2nd in the Group assuming everything goes the way it should in the days ahead.

You certainly can't ignore it and I would suggest holding your money on this fixture until the Group E and F games are completed on Wednesday. By then you will at least know if 2nd place in Group G means avoiding both Brazil and Germany in the Quarter Final, while Group H will be finalised in the hours leading up to kick off in this fixture which will mean the Last 16 ties are set for the Winner and Runner Up.

I think the situation is such that Gareth Southgate will have to embrace where England are and so pick a team that beats Belgium to show they fear no one they are going to face in the next couple of weeks. The pathway is not ideal, but I do think there is a real potential England could avoid Colombia who I fancy to win Group H but either way Southgate will not want to show his players that he 'fears' winning the Group.

Martinez is in a much better position with Belgium as he announced his intentions BEFORE England battered Panama to take over at the top of the Group. He can make it clear that he always intended to make wholesale changes and ultimately his Belgium team will benefit.

There is a rivalry that could spice the game up a little bit with the Belgian squad involving so many Premier League players who will want bragging rights. However winning a World Cup will be more important than this one game and I am anticipating Southgate will pick a strong team which is capable of winning the game and winning the Group.

Belgium have a deep squad but if Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Dries Mertens and Romelu Lukaku are missing they are clearly not as good as they could be. Take out Jan Vertonghen and Thomas Meunier from defensive roles and Belgium take another hit so I am backing England on the Asian Handicap to win this one at the time of writing.


I would most definitely wait to see how the Groups before this one pan out before making a final play, but I think England will be the stronger team on the night as Belgium refuse to really want to win this game. If Germany have somehow won their Group then Belgium may make more effort, but if they are set to face Brazil in the Second Round and then one of those teams will be waiting for the Winner of Group G if they progress past the Last 16 means it is unlikely the Belgium team will push too hard to find a winner.

England will want to go into the tough battles with the momentum of three Group wins now they are unlikely to finish 2nd barring some outrageous tackling, and I think they will be a good team to back by Wednesday night when Group E and F has been decided.


Panama v Tunisia Pick: The World Cup may be coming to an end for both Panama and Tunisia but both teams should be highly motivated to earn a result that will see them return home as heroes.

The pressure is on Tunisia because the Panama players have already secured their spot in the hearts of the fans having just made it through to the World Cup Finals. They have also scored a goal here which would have been the minimum aim and now Panama can have a free shot on winning a World Cup point or even a first ever World Cup win.

For Tunisia the fans would have expected to break their long wait for a World Cup win in Russia. The nation won their first ever World Cup game back in 1978 but they have since failed to win any of 13 Finals games and the match with Panama is clearly a big opportunity for these players to snap the long wait.

That puts pressure on players to perform and that is my one fear for Tunisia who are also missing so many key players through injury. The injuries to the starting goalkeeper and two starting centre halves is a major blow to a team who had lost their star striker prior to the tournament and it is going to be a challenge for Tunisia to pick themselves up from the 'bad breaks' they will feel they have been given.

However they should be the team providing the most quality in this one having scored goals against both Belgium and England in the Group. There hasn't been sustained moments of threat from Tunisia but they are now facing a defence that has been naive at time and I would fully expect the African nation to win this one.

I won't be overly surprised if Panama add to their goal scored against England though as Tunisia have not defended well at all, but I would still think Tunisia have enough about them to expose their opponents from set pieces as England did. Ultimately I do think Tunisia will have to score at least twice to win this one and I do think they are good enough to edge out Panama.

It makes my selection fairly easy in backing Tunisia to win a game that features at least two goals on the night as these two nations bid farewell to Russia.

MY PICKS: Saudi Arabia + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Uruguay-Russia Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Iran-Portugal Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.80 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3.40 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Australia-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Denmark-France 0-0 Correct Score @ 6.50 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
Croatia - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nigeria-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Mexico - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Germany - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brazil to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.85 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Switzerland-Costa Rica Both Teams to Score @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Japan-Poland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Colombia @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
England 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tunisia to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Group Stage Round Robin Three Update: 8-8, + 3.53 Units (27.50 Units Staked, + 12.84% Yield)

Group Stage Round Robin Two Final: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)

World Cup 2018 Group Picks (June 19th-24th)

The World Cup has produced some memorable moments already with a classic match between Portugal and Spain the highlight of the opening games played, at the time of writing at least.

England's late winner over Tunisia did capture the imagination of the nation considering some of the issues the favourites have had in the opening Group games with Argentina, Spain, Germany and Brazil all failing to win their first Group matches despite opening the tournament as four of the top five favourites in the outright markets.

None of those nations should be panicking right now, but it just goes to show how well England did to break down Tunisia and deservedly pick up the three points with one of the better all around performances produced so far.

In this thread I will place all the Group Picks from the second round robin of games which can be the pivotal games as far as qualification for the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals are concerned.


Tuesday 19th June
Russia v Egypt Pick: The World Cup opened with the hosts hammering Saudi Arabia 5-0 and that has left a few more options on the table for Russia as far as this game is concerned.

At the beginning of the tournament it was felt Russia and Egypt were going to be fighting it out for the second Last 16 spot behind Uruguay and that remains the case. I don't want to go overboard about Russia's win over Saudi Arabia as the Asian Qualifiers looked distinctly short of the quality required at this level, while Russia scored their last three goals relatively late on to produce the 5-0 win.

That margin of victory eases the pressure on Russia, especially after seeing Egypt lose 0-1 to Uruguay late in the second game in Group A. Where a point might not have been what they were looking for from this game prior to the tournament, Russia should be very much happy to do that now knowing they have such a strong goal difference to fall back upon.

If Uruguay expectedly beat Saudi Arabia, the point may also mean Russia are in a comfortable position to avoid defeat to the top team in the section which would also guarantee a place in the Last 16. It is going to take a huge effort from Egypt to pick themselves up from the late loss to Uruguay even if Mohamed Salah is back in contention for a starting spot having failed to even come off the bench last Friday.

Russia look short at the prices to win this match as far as I am concerned, even if Egypt could leave spaces to exploit if chasing the game late on. It is easy to get carried away by Russia's performance against Saudi Arabia, but I think this is a much more difficult challenge for them and they may realise the importance of avoiding defeat rather than overcommitting and being beaten.

Having a small interest in the draw looks the way to go about this match, a result which would almost put the hosts through to the Last 16.


Wednesday 20th June
Portugal v Morocco Pick: There were contrasting emotions for Portugal and Morocco out of the first games in Group B as Portugal came from behind to earn a late equaliser against Spain hours after Morocco conceded an injury time goal to lose to Iran.

The draw in the other game means Morocco are far from out of the World Cup Finals, but obviously there is a blow in losing to what is considered the 'weakest' team in the section. Facing two big European nations in the final two games is a tough spot for Morocco, but a win would put them in a strong position going into the final game against Spain.

Beating Portugal looks a tough task for Morocco who looked very good against Iran and made all the running, but there was a little lack of quality in the final third which is a worry. Now they face two more tough defences and it won't be easy for Morocco to create great chances like they had against Iran.

Lacking composure in the final third will be a tough spot from which Morocco could earn the result they need to prolong their chances of earning a Last 16 spot in the World Cup. A defeat would guarantee Morocco are going home at the end of the next week, while a draw would mean having to beat Spain in the final Group game.

Morocco will have to take chances in this one against the European Champions and they need to do a better job containing Cristiano Ronaldo than Spain managed last Friday. Ronaldo remains the key figure for Portugal, but there were some nice attacking moments around the World Player of the Year which will be encouraging to the fans who want a deep World Cup run.

Portugal may have had to ride their luck to get a result against Spain, but a similar level of performance should be good enough to beat Morocco who will have to take chances. I expect Morocco will look to sit in deep initially and try and counter Portugal, but a draw is not really a great result for them and I think that means Portugal should have more opportunities to counter them and earn the three points that will give them every chance of making it out of the Group.

I did have some decent hopes for Morocco prior to the tournament, but the loss in the opener has put them in a very tough position. If they had won they could have maintained shape in this one and tried to frustrate Portugal, but the defeat means Morocco have to take chances in this one and I think the European team punish them.

There is a worry that Portugal are a cautious team by nature that they sit back on a narrow lead and potentially get caught late, but I think they are more likely to find something on the counter attack with the pace they have in forward positions. Backing Portugal to win and cover the Asian Handicap is my pick from this Group B game.


Uruguay v Saudi Arabia Pick: This looks to be a mismatch on paper especially if Saudi Arabia are anything as bad as they were in the opening World Cup Group game.

They are a team that did not play well away from home in the Qualifiers and that has been shown up in Russia already when battered 5-0 by the hosts. The defending was almost criminal with so many mistakes made at the back that were exploited by Russia and both Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani must be licking their lips as both bid to get their World Cup scoring off the mark.

Both had chances in the opener for Uruguay, but it was a central defender who helped Uruguay beat Egypt with a late winner. The Egyptians can be frustrating defensively, but Uruguay did have the chances to win that game much earlier than they did and if they can pick up from where they left off I do like Uruguay to win this one comfortably.

In a friendly prior to the World Cup they beat Uzbekistan 3-0 and I would imagine Uruguay are good enough to match that margin of victory again. It will mean their final game with Russia is almost a dead rubber, but Uruguay will be looking to win the Group and will know goal difference could be a potential tiebreaker if Egypt have beaten Russia the day before.

There does look a clear difference in quality and I expect Uruguay to start much better than they did in the 1-0 win over Egypt. Backing Uruguay to win and cover the Asian Handicap is the play knowing the stake will be returned if they only win by a couple of goals on the day. Personally I expect a three plus margin of victory so backing Uruguay on the Asian Handicap looks a no brainer for me.


Iran v Spain Pick: After some difficult moments in the first half, Iran's manager Carlos Queiroz must have given himself a pat on the back with a game plan that produced a clean sheet and then a win with the only shot on goal in the second half. That is only the second World Cup win for Iran and one that means they can set up exactly as they like against the two European nations they finish up the Group with.

First up is Spain who showed immense quality going forward against Portugal in the 3-3 draw last Friday, although they will want better from the defensive areas of the pitch. That defence may not be challenged as much as they were by Cristiano Ronaldo and company a few days ago though and instead the onus will be on Spain to break down what is likely to be two banks of five in front of them.

No one should blame Iran for that as they will know a point here would be a real boost and one that could potentially put them in line for a place in the Last 16. Four years ago they frustrated Argentina before conceding an injury time goal to Lionel Messi, but I expect a similarly organised defensive unit who will look to prevent Spain from picking their way through them.

There will be some threat from Iran with the pace they have in forward areas, but the game plan will mean they are likely to sit deep and try to grind out a result. I can see the forwards getting isolated the longer the game goes on and Iran will look for set pieces to make an impact on this one, but ultimately the game will be dictated by Spain.

Queiroz is someone who will organise Iran to be a difficult team to break down so I am not anticipating this will be easy for Spain. However I did like the way Spain reacted to the loss of their manager in the overall performance against Portugal and I expect that will be good enough to see them break down this Iran team.

With Diego Costa up front, Spain have a different way to attack the Iran defence than simply passing them to death as they would have done when winning the World Cup in 2010. We saw that impact in the game with Portugal and I think Spain will be able to work their way through Iran as Morocco did and I like the European team to win this by at least a couple of goals.


Thursday 21st June
Denmark v Australia Pick: At the start of Group C I thought France was going to be the team who likely dominate things and then it would be Peru and Denmark who fight it out for the second place.

The Danes rode their luck at times to somehow come away with a 1-0 win over Peru in the opening game, but that isn't a guarantee they are going to make it through the section. While it is a big three points, Australia showed enough in their opening defeat to France to think they can make Denmark think about things in the second game in the Group.

With France still to play in the Group, Denmark may not be able to afford to settle for a draw as much it may seem, especially if Peru can either upset France. Even if they don't, a draw leaves the door open for Australia who have the kind of quality from set pieces that makes them very dangerous.

I do question the attacking quality of both of these teams, but they have shown they can create chances and take the opportunities when they come. I expect the same to happen here and I would not be surprised at all if both teams score in this one with the Australian team likely having to take a few more risks than Denmark.

However I am going to take it a step further and back at least three goals to be shared out between them on Thursday afternoon. Denmark showed some real vulnerabilities at the back against Peru who should have scored at least one, but possibly two goals with the clear chances they had, while the Danes also had some quality going the other way.

This Australia team have been used to scoring and conceding and they continued that in the opener against France. They will cause some problems, but I think Australia are a team who are still very vulnerable at the back as they showed in some of their bigger World Cup Qualifiers and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


France v Peru Pick: Anyone who thinks Peru were not hard done by in their opening World Cup game must have been watching a different game to me as I thought they were the better team when they faced Denmark. The defeat has left them in a difficult position in the Group when going up against the favourites in this section in the second game and Peru will know exactly what they need to give them a chance to make it through to the Last 16 prior to kick off.

In reality Peru would like to see Australia beat Denmark which would mean Peru are alive in the final round robin of games in the Group regardless of what happens here. That would also give the players the chance to express themselves against France in this game knowing they can play with the freedom of still having a chance of progressing from the Group no matter what.

However any other result than an Australia win would mean Peru have to find a result against France and I think that is going to be difficult for the South American nation who have been a revelation over the last twelve months. I don't doubt Peru can create chances against a France defence that looked nervous when facing Australia, but defensively Peru looked like they could struggle when facing the kind of attacking talent they will see in this fixture.

France should be playing with more freedom than they did against Australia as they perhaps started the tournament nervously. A win will have settled those nerves a little bit and this team is about as good as any Peru would have faced in Qualifying.

Peru did beat Uruguay in the World Cup Qualifiers and drew with Argentina twice, but Brazil managed to get the better of them in both home and away Qualifiers. I think the style of play will suit France much more than Australia's style which was set up to first contain France.

In this one I expect Peru will look to get the ball down and take the game to France and I think it will be an entertaining game in the Group. Ultimately I think France will have a little too much strength overall for Peru and I think they will show much better than in their win over Australia.

With the attacking threat that both teams can possess, I would be surprised if a single goal is enough for France and I will back them to win a game which features at least three goals shared out at odds against.


Argentina v Croatia Pick: Coming into the World Cup Argentina were considerable favourites to beat Croatia but the results in the opening Group game means they have drifted to odds against in some places.

They still look short as far as I am concerned when you think how much panic set in at the back whenever Iceland attacked Argentina in the first half. It was no surprise Iceland perhaps drifted backwards in the second half as they protected what score they had, but the lack of clear chances fashioned by Argentina will be a concern too.

I worried for Argentina prior to the start of the tournament and nothing much has changed my mind. This fixture is much tougher than the opener because Croatia will have a midfield that can control things and they should have a little more quality further up the pitch than Iceland which can give a vulnerable Argentina defence a lot of problems.

On the other hand the attacking intent of Croatia's should be much greater than Iceland's too and that should mean a little more space for the Argentina attackers which is where the strength of the team lies. Argentina will need more from Lionel Messi, but they also need some of the other talent in those areas to step up and show they can support Messi instead of relying on him to create the magic on his own.

Both teams to score is not the outrageous price it was for Argentina's first game, but at odds against that still looks very generous in this one. You also have to say Argentina look very short to win the game considering the problems they have been having for some time now and Croatia looking as good as they did in the first game as well as having some real quality in midfield who can dictate the tempo of this fixture.

For those who like the big prices, Croatia to win and both teams to score is a massive 9.00!!

However I think we should keep things simple here- I think both teams will score and I also think Croatia will avoid defeat. The last two friendly games between these nations have both featured at least three goals and I think the situation here means we could see an open game on Thursday with both teams having enough about them to combine for three or more goals.

1-1 will suit Croatia, but Argentina would be left very vulnerable if the result goes against them in the other Group game between Nigeria and Iceland and I think the onus is on the South American nation to attack. That is all well and good, but their defence looks vulnerable enough already and I think Croatia could exploit them on the counter attack if Argentina take too many risks.

We have to respect the attacking talent Argentina have too which makes them a threat to score the goals needed to win the game, and I think backing at least three goals shared out looks a big price.


Friday 22nd June
Brazil v Costa Rica Pick: There are some more concerns around the fitness of Neymar who had to limp out of a training session this week but I would expect the Samba star to take his place in the starting line up. It is a big day for Brazil who look to get back on track in the Group having drawn 1-1 with Switzerland in the first game, but they will need a better all around performance from the team.

One of my criticisms of the performance was the way Neymar was trying too hard and thus making some poor decisions with the ball. He would dribble when he should pass, pass when he should shoot or shoot when there were other options around and I think that is the pressure most Brazilian players feel after the way the 2014 World Cup finished.

Neymar needs to settle down a little bit and I think Brazil will be alright with the players they have in the squad.

Even though not at their absolute best, Brazil did create enough chances to steal the win over Switzerland and there won't be any panic. They are facing what looks to be the weakest team in the Group after Costa Rica were beaten 0-1 by Serbia and a similar level of performance could see them really struggle.

While Costa Rica had their moments, defensively they looked out of sorts and I think they will find it tough to contain this Brazil team who have a game under their belt in Russia. Even if Neymar is unable to take part, I think Brazil have plenty of players who can produce at this level to help them not only win, but win with some comfort.

Costa Rica took a couple of heavy losses in their final international friendlies in preparation for the World Cup and they could have lost by a significant margin against Serbia if the latter had taken the chances that came their way. I don't think Brazil will be as loose in the forward areas as Serbia were, especially not after missing some decent chances against Switzerland, and I will back Brazil on the Asian Handicap.


Nigeria v Iceland Pick: Neither Nigeria or Iceland won their opening World Cup game in 2018, but there is a completely different feel in both squads going into the pivotal second game.

While Nigeria looked as poor as any team in the World Cup Finals with a lack of intensity meaning they were comfortably dismissed by Croatia, Iceland have shown plenty of heart and determination to earn a 1-1 draw with Argentina.

It means the situation is much clearer for Nigeria who know they will be out of the tournament if they lose this game while they will be on the brink of elimination with a draw. With Argentina the remaining game after this one, anything other than a win would likely see the end of Nigeria's ambitions in Russia which would be a huge disappointment to their fans around the world.

Iceland may feel they need to win this game too, but they have a little more room for error knowing they have beaten Croatia already in the World Cup Qualifiers. However they won't want the pressure of being in a 'must win' situation in the final round of Group games so the win is going to be important to Iceland too which means we have the ingredients for a very positive match.

As well as Iceland have defended as a unit, they will offer up some chances and Nigeria have pace and better quality in the final third than they showed against Croatia. You have to think they will have an all around better performance anyway as no team can be that poor twice, while Nigeria will have seen a much changed Ghana score twice in a recent friendly in Iceland.

On the other hand Iceland will be very much believing they can create chances against a lacklustre Nigerian team and I am leaning towards the European nation finding the win in this one. However I don't think they will have it all their own way considering the number of goals Iceland have been conceding in recent months and the layers may be underestimating the kind of performance I expect Nigeria to make all over the pitch.

Both teams to score is odds against, but I am going to take it a step further and back at least three goals to be shared out. I do think both teams will have their chances to score and expect both to do that, but the situation means the 1-1 is not an ideal score for either team and so I can see both teams taking chances to try and win this fixture.

If the Argentina-Croatia game is a draw on Thursday you may want to consider changing your pick to both teams to score, which should be possible by laying off this selection on one of the more popular exchanges out there.

However I am anticipating there being a winner in the other game and that should mean these two teams are well aware of the importance of the three points here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Serbia v Switzerland Pick: Most expected Brazil to run away with the Group with these two nations fighting it out for second place between them, but the opening games results means it is Serbia who are in pole position to make it through to the Last 16.

A win on Friday will put Serbia into the Second Round at the World Cup but any other result means Switzerland are likely favourites to at least finish above the Serbs in the Group. The point earned against Brazil is a priceless one for Switzerland who are a team who punch above their weight, but they need to back up that performance having failed to get out of the Group in 2010 despite beating Spain in the opening game.

That was an upset result against the favourites to win the World Cup and they have done the same in 2018, but the expectation is that Switzerland can work their way through to the Last 16.

They will be looking to expose some of the defensive vulnerabilities that Serbia displayed in the win over Costa Rica who were punished for a lack of composure in the final third. The defensive play was always a big concern for Serbia heading into the tournament, but Switzerland have to find more from the forward areas with goals a problem for them.

I do think Switzerland will get opportunities from set pieces and I do think they can cause Serbia one or two questions that they could find tough to answer. However I also expect Serbia to continue attacking with the verve they showed in the opening game and there is some real talent in the final third which makes Serbia an interesting proposition in this tournament.

They created some huge chances against Costa Rica but they also lacked some composure when the opportunities came their way. I would expect better from Serbia when those chances come in this game and I think this could be a better game than it perhaps looks like on paper.

Both teams will likely take risks as the importance of the three points won't be lost on them. The draw would definitely suit Switzerland more than Serbia so expect the latter to make the running which could leave spaces to be exploited by Switzerland and I am going to back this game featuring at least three goals on Friday evening.


Saturday 23rd June
Belgium v Tunisia Pick: The opening 35 minutes of the Tunisia match with England could have seen the African nation down by two or three goals, but they settled into the match and perhaps feel a little unfortunate to have been beaten as late as they did.

In truth it was a deserved win for England as Tunisia looked to defend in numbers and frustrate their opponents in the second half, but it was a wastefulness in front of goal which really hurt England.

The Tunisians cannot expect the same from Belgium who are one of the higher scoring nations coming out of Europe and who found a way to wear down and beat Panama 3-0 in their opening Group game. Belgium were far from at their best in that game, but I am going to put that down to nervousness and I expect they will be much better in this fixture as they were against Panama once taking the lead.

With the quality Belgium have in the forward areas they will certainly feel they can match the chances that England created when they faced this team. Tunisia won't make it easy for Belgium, but they don't have a lot of threat going the other way and I expect Belgium to dominate the ball and find a way to grind down the Tunisian defence.

There were also some real concerns for Tunisia whenever England got a set piece or corners too and that could be the case again when you think of the quality of delivery that Belgium have. They also have a big team who can cause problems from those set pieces and I do think Belgium could profit as England did.

In this one Tunisia will likely have to take a few more risks too as they look for a positive result and everything points to Belgium winning and by a margin that slightly betters England's win over Tunisia. With the sides settled into the tournament after putting one game in the books I think Belgium begin much more assured than they did against Panama and I am going to back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


South Korea v Mexico Pick: There wasn't a lot of hope for a deep run at the World Cup Finals for South Korea prior to the tournament and those hopes would have lessened considerably off the back of the 0-1 defeat to Sweden.

A line up that was still not settled and a manager who didn't know his best formation was not ideal preparation for South Korea and the team struggled in the first game. If it wasn't for some poor finishing from Sweden, South Korea would have been beaten very handily and the competition gets tougher for them in the remaining Group games.

Poor finishing almost cost Mexico the chance of a big upset in the opening game but they hung on to beat Germany 1-0 and take command of this Group. The hopes back home is that Mexico can return to the Quarter Final of the World Cup having suffered six consecutive Last 16 defeats and winning the Group would be a huge step to achieving the 'quinto partido' the fans so desire.

The pace and quality of play up until the final shot cannot be dismissed and I expect Mexico will be able to create a number of chances in this Group game against a South Korean team that struggled against Sweden. It may be easier for South Korea without the physicality with which Sweden play, but I still expect Mexico to create chances and look for the second win which will give them one foot into the Last 16 ahead of the final Group game.

My feeling was that South Korea would struggle for goals at the World Cup and they looked a team destined for an early exit. I expect them to be on the brink of exit by Saturday evening and that will be contributed to by Mexico's win over them.


Germany v Sweden Pick: This is almost an ideal situation for Sweden having earned three points in their opening Group game and facing a desperate opponent in the next game. Of course many are expecting Germany to bounce back from their shock 0-1 defeat to Mexico, but Sweden will be comfortable knowing they can play their natural game and look to frustrate their opponents.

It was the style Sweden used to beat Italy 1-0 on aggregate in the World Cup Play Offs and I imagine they will sit in deep and hope to counter Germany when the latter perhaps get a little desperate. For the first hour the key for Sweden is to make sure they have the clean sheet and I expect some strong defending from the Swedes in this one.

They will have some chances to cause problems for Germany from set pieces too but I am also expecting a much better performance from the defending Champions than we saw against Mexico. It may suit them playing a team who won't spring from defence to attack nearly as quickly as Mexico did in the first game and I would be surprised if Germany are not able to wear down Sweden in this one.

Germany have some real quality in the midfield areas who can pick the right passes to get through opponents and a team sitting back may just allow them to dictate the tempo with a little more belief than they had against Mexico. I don't think Sweden have the same quality on the counter attack as Mexico displayed and I do think Germany win this game to get back into contention in the Group.

Backing Germany on the Asian Handicap or backing them to win with a clean sheet are both odds against and I like Germany in both markets. The recent German defensive performances are a slight concern, but I think Sweden's goal will be to keep a clean sheet and so I am not sure they will have enough opportunities to expose those defensive concerns for the defending Champions.

At the price I think it is worth backing Germany to win with the clean sheet.


Sunday 24th June
England v Panama Pick: There are a number of mismatches in the World Cup Group Stage which will only be exasperated when the tournament is expanded to 48 nations, but you can't take anything away from Panama having their moment in the sun.

They absolutely deserve their place in the World Cup Finals although it is clear they are some way short of the quality needed to really challenge the top two European nations in the Group. Panama did well to hold Belgium goalless through the first half of the opening game, but the older players perhaps tired as the game wore on and they are in for another test of their fitness on Sunday.

England made harder work of Tunisia than they perhaps should have having created a number of wide open chances before a controversial penalty was awarded against them. It then took some time to break down Tunisia, but the win will be huge for the confidence and I fully expect England to win this match and win fairly comfortably.

The pace in the forward areas will make life tough for Panama to contain England and I think it is much harder to defend with the same passion Panama did in the first game when you have already chased the ball around for 90 minutes a few days earlier.

I expect England to settle into this game very much as they did against Tunisia and this time I would expect a little more composure in the final third which could see England win well. I will back England to cover the Asian Handicap which offers a profit if England win by two goals and a bigger one if they win by three goals or more.

I'm leaning towards the latter being the margin of victory in this one so backing England on the Asian Handicap makes easy sense for me.


Japan v Senegal Pick: The World Cup has seen a number of upsets already through the first round robin fixtures in the Group Stage, but Group H may have been the most open Group prior to the tournament. So while I accept both results in the opening round of Group games were surprises, it is perhaps not of the same magnitude as seeing the likes of Brazil, Argentina and Germany fail to win their first games.

Japan got the better of Colombia thanks to the second fastest red card in history and Senegal later beat Poland which means these two nations come into this fixture knowing they can almost secure a spot in the Last 16 with a win.

I would be surprised if either was too keen on the draw especially as they play this match before the other Group game is contested. If there is a winner in that match, the draw won't suit one of these teams and I have a feel both camps will look at the other as the best chance to put another win on the board in this Group.

Japan are perhaps the team that will take the draw more than Senegal with the feeling they have beaten the best team in the Group. They were very much considered the also-rans in the Group at the start of play and I am not going to get too giddy about their win over Colombia and simply put it down to the situation of facing a team with ten more for almost ninety full minutes.

I don't think Japan are as good as the result suggested and they really did struggle before Colombia perhaps tired. That won't be the case against Senegal who showed huge amounts of energy in their win over Poland and I expect the camp to be bouncing having beaten a real contender for a Last 16 berth.

Senegal hadn't been at their best in recent friendly games, but the 2-0 win over South Korea will give them confidence. I expect their physicality to be very difficult for Japan to deal with and only another 'crazy' situation like Senegal being reduced to ten men for the majority of the game or something like that is likely to be the reason Japan can stay with them.

The African nation showed enough against Poland to think they can find the right plays to break down this Japanese team who may sit back and hope to contain Senegal. That isn't going to be easy against this team who have a threat from set pieces and plenty of pace out wide and I do like Senegal to win the game and perhaps secure their Last 16 spot by the end of Sunday evening.

This was a much bigger price pre-tournament, but I still like Senegal at odds against to win this fixture.


Poland v Colombia Pick: The two favourites to get out of Group H both suffered a defeat in their opening Group games which means the losing team here is almost certainly going to be heading home at the end of the week.

That puts some real pressure on both Poland and Colombia, but could also mean a game featuring plenty of chances at both ends of the field with neither team being able to settle for a draw and any team chasing the game having to take risks.

You have to expect better from Poland- while they weren't as poor as Saudi Arabia and Panama, those nations didn't come into the tournament with anything near the expectations Poland did. I would put them alongside Nigeria as the most disappointing of the teams in the first round of Group games and I would like to think the manager will get into them and ask for much better in this one.

Colombia will also be looking for more, but there is some sympathy with their plight after Carlos Sanchez was sent off in the first three minutes of the defeat to Japan. They didn't look a bad team, but tired as the game went on, while James Rodriguez has a few more days to get over the injury issue which forced him into a substitute role in the first game.

There is much to like about Colombia and I think they are far from out of the tournament even after losing the first game. History is against them, but there is some real talent in forward areas and I think they will give Poland plenty of problems when you think of the poor defensive record in Qualifiers and the way they played in the opening game.

With the situation as it is, Poland have to take chances too which will only expose those issues at the back and I am anticipating this being yet another Group H fixture which features at least three goals shared out. Both teams should have chances with the high profile attacking players at their disposal and I think this could be a decent game as an effective 'knock out' fixture with the losing team almost certainly going home.

Some teams may play a little more conservatively under those conditions, but I think the fact both lost their opening game means they will take chances to avoid any draw and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Russia-Egypt Draw @ 3.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Portugal - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Uruguay - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Spain - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denmark-Australia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
France to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Argentina-Croatia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brazil - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nigeria-Iceland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Serbia-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mexico - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
England - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Senegal @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Poland-Colombia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Group Stage Round Robin Two Update: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)

Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)