Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (September 12-14)

I always felt the six weeks between the end of the 2019/20 Premier League season and the start of the 2020/21 would fly by, but even then the new season has snuck up on me in the same way the NFL season has done.

With the European competitions being completed in August, it did mean the Premier League offered Manchester City and Manchester United the chance to have an extra week to prepare for the season and that means those two teams along with Burnley and Aston Villa are not going to be in action this weekend.

Even then, there are eight Premier League matches to come this week and, importantly, the Fantasy Football Game is back with GW1 ready to go.

I have a few thoughts about the opening week of the season which you can read below once I put down my thoughts as to how the weekend Premier League games will go.

Fulham v Arsenal Pick: After a very short off-season the Premier League is back in action on Saturday as Arsenal make a relatively short trip across London to take on newly-promoted Fulham at Craven Cottage.

Both of these clubs enjoyed plenty of success at Wembley Stadium last month as Fulham earned their spot in the top flight through the Play Off Final just days after Arsenal won the FA Cup. The Gunners have also won the Community Shield in the national Stadium a couple of weeks ago and the Mikel Arteta era is beginning to take shape with some interesting signings made.

A couple of youngsters may take over in key defensive positions, but keeping Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looks to have been the crucial piece of business done this off-season. Signing Willian will give the squad some experience too and Arsenal have produced some big results under their Spanish manager.

However there are some questions about a team that only won 4 of 19 away Premier League games last season. The Gunners have to be much stronger than that if they are going to bridge the 10 point gap that existed at the end of last season between Arsenal and the Champions League spots and the improvement has to be shown right at the beginning of the 2020/21 campaign.

I do think Arsenal have the attacking players to make hay at Craven Cottage where they have enjoyed visiting in recent times. There are a number of members of the squad who would have been involved in the 1-5 win on this ground a little under two years ago and I do think Fulham have a squad that looks short of the quality needed to survive, at least at this point.

Scott Parker will believe he has the time to still bring in the players that can make the difference for Fulham, but I do think they will find it difficult to contain a team like Arsenal who have pace and quality in the final third.

You do have to wonder how players will cope with what has been a very short time between seasons, but both of these groups should come into the fixture with confidence. I think that could produce a decent game of football even without the fans and I believe that Arsenal will edge a high-scoring fixture.

Fulham were decent here in the Championship, but the step up in class is likely going to be telling for much of the season barring some real quality being signed before the end of the transfer window. Any signings to be made might be accelerated forward if Fulham struggle on Saturday and I do think Arsenal win a fixture featuring at least two goals.

Crystal Palace v Southampton Pick: These two teams are both trendy picks for the new Premier League season- the form shown since the resumption of play means plenty are tipping up Crystal Palace for relegation and Southampton for a top half finish and perhaps even a push for Europe.

Roy Hodgson is a very strong manager and he will extract all he can from the Crystal Palace squad, but much is going to depend on whether he can find a consistent path to goal from somewhere. That is never easy, but Crystal Palace have signed players to try and produce in the final third, although the key for the club is holding onto Wilfried Zaha if possible.

Zaha has been linked with a move away and while the transfer window is open there is going to be a fear that he will finally get his wish.

That uncertainty won't help the Crystal Palace squad which had lost 7 straight Premier League games before a 1-1 draw with Tottenham Hotspur. Now they have to take on a Southampton team who had the 4th best record in the Premier League after the three month suspension of the season came to an end.

Southampton have not really strengthened the squad as much as they would have liked, but there is quality available to Ralph Hasenhuttl. The Austrian manager has gotten plenty out of his players in the squad and a rejuvenated Danny Ings provides the end product to the strong football played by The Saints.

This is a team that have loved playing away from home with 9 wins from 19 games on their travels in the League and Southampton have won 3 in a row on this ground. The injuries at the back will make Crystal Palace vulnerable to the upset here and there are plenty backing Southampton to secure the three points here.

It is early in the season though and I do think Crystal Palace are a team that need to be respected thanks to a manager who will make it hard to break his team down. However, I do believe Southampton could have a very good season and I will get behind them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw.

Liverpool v Leeds United Pick: It wasn't much fun being a Manchester United fan in a season in which Liverpool and Leeds United had as much success as they did and both clubs will believe they can follow on the 2019/20 campaign with a successful 2020/21.

Liverpool can go into the season as English Champions for the first time in thirty years and they will host Leeds United who have had sixteen years outside of the top flight.

While the hosts will be looking to repeat, the expectation around Leeds United means the fans are hoping to do more than merely survive at this level. With Marcelo Bielsa in charge there is a feeling that Leeds United could even push for a top half finish, but much is going to depend on Rodrigo and whether he has the goals to push Leeds United forward.

This is a very big test for Leeds United against a very good Liverpool team who were not playing as poorly as the results would suggest back in June and July. There was a slight drop off in intensity, but Liverpool were still creating chances and their front three should be rested and ready to compete in this opening weekend fixture.

The absence of Jordan Henderson hurt the side more than expected though and he looks like he could be missing for this fixture. That will offer Leeds United encouragement as will playing in front of an empty Anfield, but even then there is a big step up of class for the visitors to deal with.

We know Bielsa will have Leeds United very well prepared, and that does make them dangerous, but I think Liverpool will be ready to show that the end of last season was just a blip and not an extended issue for the squad to deal with. It should be a good football match with both looking to get forward and cause problems for the opponent, but Liverpool should have a little too much quality when all is said and done.

West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: Two clubs with fan bases who can sometimes have unrealistic expectations meet on the opening weekend of the 2020/21 Premier League season- both David Moyes and Steve Bruce will likely snap your hand off if you gave West Ham United and Newcastle United a 17th place finish at the end of this campaign, but fans expect the clubs to be operating much higher up the League table.

Mike Ashley was almost finally out of the club, but Newcastle United remain in his control and that means another difficult season is likely in front of the club. Steve Bruce did a fine job for the club last season, but his football is not always appreciated and Bruce has yet to truly win over the fans.

David Moyes is another manager whose football is not always appreciated, but his West Ham United team did end last season in fine form and that will be encouraging to him.

However, things are clearly not going smoothly at the London Stadium judging by captain Mark Noble making his feelings known about the sale of Grady Diangana. Bids have been made to improve the squad, but at the moment West Ham United are going into the new season with what they have.

That is a slight concern for the fans, but West Ham United do have some quality players in the squad who have perhaps underachieved. If Moyes can get those performing to the level they can reach, then West Ham United should feel good about their chances when it comes to avoiding the drop to the Championship.

Newcastle United have had a decent window and bringing in the likes of Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson are decent signings on the budget on which they are operating. Last season Steve Bruce showed he can make his team more than the sum of their parts and there is some pace and quality in the final third which could cause problems for opponents.

However, the defence is vulnerable and even more so without Martin Dubravka keeping goal and I think that is where the home team might have the narrow edge. West Ham United should have won at St James' Park back in July having twice led on the day, and I think being at home will give them more of an opportunity even without the fans in attendance.

It is the first game of the season though and opening weekend results can be a little eye-catching. The home team should be good enough to earn the points here, but the Asian Handicap may be the best approach to this fixture.

West Brom v Leicester City Pick: The first 'Super Sunday' Premier League fixture of the season comes from The Hawthorns as newly-promoted West Brom host Leicester City.

Slaven Bilic's men almost backed their way back into the Premier League from the Championship having failed to win any of their last 4 games to give the likes of Brentford and Fulham an opportunity. That does mean the team perhaps does not come into the new season with the same kind of momentum as some other promoted clubs do, while West Brom still need to address the main problem of looking like a squad that does not have enough goals in them.

Being at home should give West Brom a chance to get off to a good start, but we are still without fans and this Leicester City do have quality despite their poor end to the 2019/20 campaign.

The 3 losses in their last 5 Premier League games means Leicester City missed out on a return to the Champions League, but Brendan Rodgers will have been reminding his squad that they achieved their goal of returning to European Football. The absence of James Maddison did hurt Leicester City down the stretch, but the England international may not be available this weekend either and that is a concern.

Leicester City have not won any of their last 8 away games in all competitions but they were playing better than the results would suggest. There looks to be a continuity with the squad that should see them have another decent campaign even though Ben Chilwell has been moved on, and I think Leicester City do have more goals in their squad than West Brom.

Neither team ended the last season in the manner they would have wanted, but a new campaign comes with new hopes and dreams and I think Leicester City will edge to the three points at The Hawthorns.

Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Pick: Both Jose Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti are shaping their respective Tottenham Hotspur and Everton squads up to their liking and that does mean there is a greater sense of expectation around them.

After missing out on the Champions League, Tottenham Hotspur have to be looking to push their way back in alongside the elite of European Football, while Everton will be hoping to be the 'best of the rest' and challenge for silverware and a return to any European competition.

There is an excitement around both squads with some of the new faces arriving to freshen things up and I do think we could see a decent game on Sunday afternoon. The short turnaround between seasons is going to be a challenge for every club to deal with, but it may also mean some of the players can get off and running quicker than they may do in usual seasons.

When these teams met after the resumption of the Premier League it was a very poor game of football that ended 1-0 in favour of Tottenham Hotspur. However, the home team look in a healthier place now and Everton have brought in some quality that could make them much more competitive even against the better teams in the Premier League.

The midfield reinforcements should offer a lot more protection for Everton this season and I do think James Rodriguez will add some quality to the forward line along with Richarlison. However new signings can take time to bed in and that is where Tottenham Hotspur have a little more continuity in their squad that can see them edge to the points here.

It should be a much better game than the one we saw here in early July, but Tottenham Hotspur managed to do enough to earn the three points on that occasion and I think they can do the same here. With a fully fit squad to choose from, Jose Mourinho can lead his team to a good start to the season and the fixtures over the coming weeks are certainly in Tottenham Hotspur's favour too.

Sheffield United v Wolves Pick: It was a game of limited chances when Sheffield United hosted Wolves in early July and I do think we could see something similar when they meet on the opening weekend of the new Premier League season.

Chris Wilder and Nuno Espirito Santo have to be given a lot of credit for the organisation of their respective teams and they won't have moved too far away from their principles.

I do think the loss of Dean Henderson will hurt Sheffield United as Aaron Ramsdale is simply not the same level of goalkeeper and that may make The Blades a little more vulnerable. However, Wolves are coming in off a long season and the squad is missing key players having sold Matt Doherty and lost Jonny to a long-term injury.

Both clubs are not going to be lacking for effort, but creating chances against the other is going to be a difficult challenge. I do think both Sheffield United and Wolves could be dangerous from set piece situations and that might be the best way to break open this fixture, but chances may be difficult to come by in open play and that could mean goals are at a premium.

We saw a couple of tight and competitive fixtures when these two teams met in the League last season and I do think we will see more of the same. There was a more open feel to the fixture at Molineux, but I imagine this one to follow the patter of the fixture played at Bramall Lane in early July and that is both teams looking to be well organised and hard to break down.

The layers have shortened the price of one, or both, of these teams failing to score on Monday, but it may still be the best way to approach the fixture. Some may want the small interest in a 1-1 correct score to cover the selection as that looks the most likely score if both teams do find the net.

Brighton v Chelsea Pick: The final game of the opening weekend of the Premier League comes from the Amex Stadium where Brighton and Chelsea actually played a friendly in front of a limited crowd in the last couple of weeks.

This time there will be no fans inside the Stadium and I do think the new look Chelsea team might have too much attacking threat for their hosts to cope with.

That is no disrespect to Brighton, but Graham Potter's style does mean they are a little more open and they simply do not score the same amount of goals as those teams at the top. Since the resumption of the Premier League Brighton have lost home games to Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City and they conceded at least three times in each of those defeats.

Now they have to face another team that finished inside the top four of the Premier League table and the only real doubt around Chelsea is how quickly some of the talented players they have purchased will settle in. I don't doubt Ben Chilwell, but the likes of Timo Werner and Kai Havertz are coming in from outside of England and it can be an eye-opening experience for youngsters that have not dealt with this League before.

Even then I do think Werner and Havertz will have a big impact on this Chelsea squad, while the return of Christian Pulisic is a huge boost for Frank Lampard. The American looked to playing at a very high level before an injury in the FA Cup Final, but he is not expected to miss time and looks to be a key threat for Chelsea who will provide the chances for Werner.

A deeper looking squad should have too much attacking intent for Brighton who will try and get forward. They might even have some success against this Chelsea backline which will look similar to the one that started games last season, but I would think Frank Lampard's men will find their way into the final third effectively and can eventually break down Brighton.

The fixture here did end 1-1 last season, and Brighton played well on the day. However, I think this Chelsea team is much improved and I believe they win fairly comfortably ahead of a big League game against Liverpool to come next weekend.

MY PICKS: Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals

Southampton 0 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur

Sheffield United-Wolves Both Teams to Score- NO

Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 1

Unbelievably we are just hours away from the Official Fantasy Football game to be live once again with GameWeek 1 of the competition starting on Saturday.

The season is scheduled to be a very tight one which means it is going to be difficult to manage our Fantasy squads as much as it is going to be for the managers in reality. Through to the end of January it feels like the top clubs will be playing twice a week barring the international breaks in October and November and that is likely going to mean heavy rotation especially as the vote came back to restore the maximum of three substitutions per game rather than the five subs that were allowed following the resumption of the Premier League in June.

While I am planning on keeping my main chips in hand until the second half of the season when they can have the biggest impact, I do think there is a chance that my first Wild Card of the season will be used sooner rather than later.

That is mainly down to the fact that the likes of Manchester United and Manchester City are not in action on the first weekend and they have some very good looking assets that would usually have been part of the squad.

At this stage I don't think it would surprise anyone to learn that I am still making vast changes to my squad, but I will say there are four names that I would think are almost certainly going to be selected in Week 1.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Timo Werner are those names and I do think it would take a real change in my approach to see any of those dropped with the deadline just hours away.

Teams I do think are worth getting behind early in the season are Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Southampton and I would love to get through the early weeks without taking a hit to my total.

Chelsea are another team that look to be benefiting from their early fixture list, but like many I think I will be looking at various options right up until the 11am deadline.

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (September 12-14)

September is considered a very busy month for the European domestic Leagues as it couples up with Cup and European action.

This week we have the first round of Champions League and Europa League games and Match Day 2 will be played later this month. It makes for an interesting time for the fans and the players with games coming thick and fast before the next international break which takes place over the first couple of weeks of October.

The English clubs have to be happy with the Champions League draws they have been given, although the challenge is for the likes of Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur who have the toughest assignments of the five English clubs involved.

Chelsea will feel they are good enough to get the better of Roma, but finishing above Atletico Madrid won't be easy with the experience the latter have in this competition. The Diego Costa situation makes those two matches even more tense than simply about the Group Winner, but the key for Antonio Conte's men is working their way through to the Last 16 and I do think they will be in a position to do that.

For Tottenham Hotspur the difficulty of facing Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in the Group is clear, but the latter are perhaps not as strong as they have been in recent years. Finishing above the European Champions would be a huge achievement and one that I am not sure Tottenham Hotspur are capable of, but the opening game with Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium will set the tone for Spurs for the rest of the competition.


Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool were all in Pots 2 or 3 in the draw and all have been handed very winnable Groups. The biggest threats for the teams come from Benfica, Napoli and Sevilla respectively, but the rest of the Group is made up of teams that the English clubs should get the better of and I would expect all three to move into the Last 16 and all perhaps winning the Group.


If I am picking the Last 16 before the Group Stage begins, I would expect these 16 sides to make up the Second Round: Manchester United, Benfica, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Roma, Barcelona, Juventus, Liverpool, Sevilla, Manchester City, Napoli, Leipzig, Porto, Real Madrid, Tottenham Hotspur.

Borussia Dortmund and Monaco will have something to say about the last couple of Groups but that is my feeling right now.


Arsenal and Everton will also begin their Europa League campaigns this week and it is a competition that perhaps takes on more importance after seeing how Manchester United performed last season. Out of the two teams, I would expect Everton to put in more effort in that competition from the opening game, but I would not be surprised if Arsenal begin to give it more priority if they continue to play inconsistent football in the Premier League.

It may not be the case this week with a big game at Stamford Bridge to come on Sunday, but only stubbornness and a belief that he is untouchable at the Emirates Stadium would see Arsene Wenger completely ignore the Europa League as he has suggested he will.


Barcelona v Juventus Pick: There have been plenty of big name changes at both Barcelona and Juventus since they met in the Champions League Quarter Final in April with Neymar leaving the Spanish club and Leonardo Bonucci moving on from the Italian club.

With Georgio Chiellini also missing this Juventus defence may not be as strong as the one that came here and earned a goalless draw in April. They didn't concede a goal in two games against Barcelona, but I do have to say that Juventus did ride their luck at times in those games.

Barcelona themselves must wonder how they didn't take at least a couple of the glorious chances they created over the two Legs. The side may not be as good without Neymar, but Barcelona still have enough attacking talent to create chances against a new look defence that doesn't have the same kind of experience as the one they faced a few months ago.

There is a transition going on at Barcelona which may mean they are not as strong as they can be, but they have been playing well enough domestically to exploit a Juventus defence that have been conceding goals. In this Group game I would expect Barcelona to take their opportunities better than they did in the Quarter Final and I think they win this opening Champions League fixture.

Juventus are a good team in their own right, but they are also getting used to the new faces that have arrived at the club and missing two of the three centre halves that were so important to them last season is a big blow. It is hard to write off a team as good as Juventus and one that has as much experience as they do in the Champions League, but I like Barcelona here.

I will look for Barcelona to show some composure in front of goal on their way to covering the Asian Handicap.


Benfica v CSKA Moscow Pick: Winning the Champions League looks a long way away for a team from Portugal these days with the improvement some of the other clubs in Europe have been able to make. However teams from Portugal are certainly good enough to get into the Last 16 of the Champions League at the very least, and the Champions Benfica have headed into the Group Stage from Pot 1 which has given them every chance to qualify for the Second Round.

The games with Manchester United will be the ones that the fans focus on, but the players and management have to be looking at Basel and CSKA Moscow as teams they should be beating and finishing above in the section. Opening up with CSKA Moscow at home gives Benfica the perfect chance to get their Champions League run started with a bang and I do expect them to be too strong.

5 wins from 6 games domestically have given Benfica the confidence to take into the Champions League but they have only won 3 of their last 7 at home in this competition. However I can excuse 3 of those failures to win which came against Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Napoli and Benfica have lost only 2 of their last 11 at home in the Champions League.

CSKA Moscow have won 10 of 14 games in the new season too which has seen them come through a couple of Champions League Qualifiers before entering the Group Stage. However they are not a strong Champions League team and CSKA Moscow have struggled when they have played away from home.

They have won at AEK Athens and Young Boys in the Qualifiers but CSKA Moscow have now lost 10 of their last 12 away Champions League games in the Group Stage. A few of those losses have been heavy defeats too and CSKA Moscow conceded at least twice in each of their 3 Group away games last season including heavy losses at Monaco and Tottenham Hotspur.

I do think they will struggle in the away games at Benfica and Manchester United in this Group and that will begin on Tuesday. Last season Benfica did have a let down in their opening game when drawing 1-1 at home with Besiktas, but I think the Turkish club are better than CSKA Moscow and this time around the Portuguese Champions can secure a victory on the night.

Both away losses in the Champions League for CSKA Moscow last season came by a couple of goals on the night and I will look for Benfica to do that here.


Chelsea v Qarabag Pick: A return to European Football will be most welcome at Stamford Bridge, but there will be some work for Chelsea to do if they are going to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League. Both Atletico Madrid and Roma are dangerous sides to face, but Chelsea open up with Qarabag at home and anything less than a win would be a huge upset.

The question really is how well will Chelsea do on the day against a Qarabag side that haven't really faced this level of competition too often. You don't want to underestimate Qarabag, and the rotation that has been indicated by Antonio Conte does make it a little more unclear as to how well Chelsea can gel together, but I do think Chelsea will be too strong on the day.

In the last two Champions League Groups that Chelsea have played, they have beaten the weakest team in the Group by three or more goals. That gives me encouragement that they can cover this Asian Handicap on Tuesday even if Conte does make a number of changes to his first team.

Qarabag were beaten 5-1 at Fiorentina and 3-0 at Slovan Liberec in the Group Stage of the Europa League last season and they may just struggle to contain Chelsea here.

Even if there are changes to the Chelsea starting line up, there is enough quality in the squad to dominate a fixture like this one. It feels like Chelsea will have the majority of the chances and they are a team that have been very strong at Stamford Bridge under Antonio Conte with plenty of goals scored in that that.

I think Chelsea will do enough to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Manchester United v Basel Pick: The Champions League anthem being played at Old Trafford is going to be a big boost for the Manchester United fans, but the players will feel like this is a level on which they have belonged all along. Winning the Europa League showed Manchester United they deserve to be amongst the best names in European Football although they won't be meeting many of those in this Group.

Opening up against Basel at Old Trafford gives Manchester United every chance of earning three points to get this Group underway.

However no one should underestimate what this Group could mean as both Basel and Benfica Qualified for the Last 16 while knocking Manchester United into the Europa League Last 32 when they were all in the same Group in the 2011/12 season.

Manchester United failed to beat Basel at home in that Group and that means both previous fixtures between them at Old Trafford have ended in draws. This current Basel team may not be as good as those that previously visited Old Trafford, especially as they have lost 4 of their last 5 away games in European competition.

They were beaten comfortably at Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League Group Stage last season, while Basel were also dismissed easily at Sevilla in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds the season before.

Backing Manchester United to win with a clean sheet would have been more appealing if they didn't have both Phil Jones and Eric Bailly suspended, so instead I will focus on the firepower the home team clearly have. Basel have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away European games and this Manchester United team have plenty of pace and quality in the final third that should give them the edge in this one.

It won't be easy to cover the Asian Handicap, but I think Manchester United can do that on Tuesday. Basel lost 3-0 at both Sevilla and Paris Saint-Germain over the last eighteen months, and also lost 2-0 at Arsenal in that time. I will look for Manchester United to match the margin that Sevilla and PSG earned and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage.


Liverpool v Sevilla Pick: When you look at this Champions League Group, Liverpool and Sevilla look to be the teams at the head of the queue to make it through to the Last 16. Winning the Group could come down to the head to head between the two clubs and that makes this opening fixture very important to both.

For Jurgen Klopp it is a chance to bounce back from the really poor 5-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday and try and regain some momentum which was lost at the Etihad Stadium. Liverpool had made a really positive start to the season before that defeat, but they could have their full complement of players ready for this one with Philippe Coutinho also expected back.

Coutinho may have to settle for a place on the bench for this fixture before starting at the weekend, but it does make Liverpool a threat to many clubs around Europe especially at Anfield. The defensive issues which were exposed by Manchester City are still at the forefront of the concern for this team, but it does have to be said that this Sevilla team are not as strong as the ones they have fielded in recent years.

There is still some talent there, but Sevilla are a team that has struggled away from home in Europe with better players. The 2-0 loss at Leicester City in the Last 16 of the Champions League was a real blow to Sevilla's confidence, and wins in Getafe and Istanbul Basaksehir is not enough to have prepared them for this game.

At the end of last season Sevilla lost 5 of 7 away games in all competitions and I think they may struggle to contain Liverpool in this one. Any team that visits Anfield has to be prepared to ride out the storm they will face early in the game, but I think that may be difficult for Sevilla with the Liverpool players having something to prove after the loss at Manchester City.

I think Liverpool will win this one and I think they may win with a margin to cover the Asian Handicap on Wednesday.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Napoli Pick: In a Group that contains Manchester City and Feyenoord, all four teams will know they can't afford too many poor performances if they want to move through to the Last 16 of the Champions League. The two leading contenders look to be Manchester City and Napoli and the Italian club look like one of the stronger teams in the competition.

They have to be one of the more exciting teams to watch at the moment with Napoli looking very strong in the final third and decent at the back which gives them very good balance. They have shown over the last several months that Napoli could be a real threat to win Serie A back home and also be one of the better teams in the Champions League.

Winning games has become common for Napoli who are also unbeaten in 17 in all competitions. Playing away from home has not been a problem as Napoli have recorded wins in 9 of their last 10 on their travels including the last 6 in a row and goals have not been a problem for them.

Napoli are facing a quality team in Shakhtar Donetsk who are clearly at their most dangerous when they are playing at home. Shakhtar Donetsk have only lost 1 in 10 home European games and had been unbeaten in 9, winning 5 in a row, before the 0-2 defeat to Celta Vigo.

However I do think Shakhtar Donetsk have slipped from the level they once had and they have won just 2 of their last 8 home Champions League games. This is a level that they have not faced regularly and Shakhtar Donetsk have lost their last couple of home games against Dynamo Kiev which is about as close to the quality they will see in the Champions League.

It may also be telling that Napoli won at Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League Group Stage last season and I think they can back up that win in the Ukraine this time around. It won't be easy, but Napoli are so good going forward that I think they will have too much for Shakhtar Donetsk in the final third.

Expect goals, but Napoli to have the edge and I will back them to win here.


Dynamo Kiev v Skenderbeu Korce Pick: The Europa League may not be seen in the same light in England as it is in many other European countries, but that does not mean this is a competition that should be disregarded. The chance to enter the Champions League by winning the Europa League is a huge carrot at the end of a long competition, while teams like Dynamo Kiev have to be thinking they can go deep into a European competition at this level.

I do think they can make hay in this Group and Dynamo Kiev opening up against the weakest team in the section looks a good chance to put a statement win together.

They should be too good for Albanian side Skenderbeu Korce who have worked some magic to come through four Rounds of Qualifiers to make the Group Stage. The last time they were in the Europa League Group Stage, Skenderbeu Korce were beaten heavily in all three away games and I think that could be the problem for them in this Group.

Both teams are in good form domestically, but the level Dynamo Kiev deal with is much greater than Skenderbeu Korce's level. Dynamo Kiev have won three in a row at home in European competition and all by at least two goal margins.

While they need to win by at least three to cover the Asian Handicap, I think the worst case is Dynamo Kiev earn a push. They should be strong enough to win easily on the day and I will back Dynamo Kiev to do that.


Hoffenheim v Braga Pick: The lack of European experience may have cost Hoffenheim their place in the Champions League Group Stage when they were beaten 6-3 by Liverpool on aggregate. However they have bounced back from that disappointment back home and that has culminated in a 2-0 win over Bayern Munich here over the weekend.

There was plenty to like about the way Hoffenheim played against Liverpool, especially in the home Leg, and the early penalty miss put them on the back foot. That was the key to the First Leg and Hoffenheim will have learned plenty about themselves in the two matches with Liverpool which should aid them when they enter the Europa League Group Stage.

Since the loss to Liverpool, Hoffenheim have won back to back home games and they have now won 10 of their last 12 here. That should give them the confidence to see off Braga even if the Portuguese side have plenty more experience of playing in European Football than Hoffenheim.

However Brage have lost 5 of their last 9 away games in all competitions and saw their 3 game winning run on their travels come to an end in a 2-0 loss at Vitoria Setubal at the weekend. Braga have proven to be a tougher nut to crack in the Europa League in recent years, and they are unbeaten in 4 away games in this competition.

That means Braga deserve some respect, but Hoffenheim play with plenty of attacking intent at home and I think they will be too strong for their visitors on Thursday.


Villarreal v Astana Pick: The home form of Villarreal combined with the away form of Astana in European competitions should mean the Spanish side are heavily favoured to win the opening game in this Europa League Group.

Most will be expecting Villarreal to be too strong with the quality they have in the squad and the Europa League has been an important competition for Spanish clubs in recent years. Sevilla have won this competition three times in a row before Celta Vigo reached the Semi Final last season and only narrowly were beaten by Manchester United.

Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid are two other Finalists in recent years and Villarreal themselves for Semi Finalists two seasons ago.

At home Villarreal have been very strong in Europa League competition with 9 wins from their last 11 here and they should be too good for an Astana team who were thumped by Celtic in the Champions League Qualifiers. That means Astana have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in European competition including in all 3 in the Europa League Group Stage last season.

3 of those 5 losses have come by at least a three goal margin and Villarreal did hammer Astana when these clubs met in the 2014/15 Europa League Qualifiers. It might not be the same margin as the 4-0 result back then, but I do think Villarreal will prove too good and they can cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Arsenal v Koln Pick: The biggest question for Arsenal fans is how serious Arsene Wenger is going to take the Europa League this season having previously dismissed the competition as one that should not be offering a Champions League place to the winner. Wenger may have to change his mind about that as the season progresses if Arsenal fail to find the consistency in the Premier League to chase a top four spot, but it does make it hard to predict the kind of teams he will pick in the Group Stage.

That is especially the case in this opening game with a big match against Chelsea just days away. There is still enough depth in the squad to expect a decent Arsenal line up to begin this fixture, but it will be a changed starting eleven to the one that beat Bournemouth comfortably on Saturday.

In saying that, I still think Arsenal will be good enough to beat Koln who have made a really poor start to their domestic campaign having lost all 3 League games. They have also been beaten in 7 of their last 11 away games in all competitions going back to last season and the lack of experience in the squad when it comes to European competition has to go against them.

Some may want to wait for the team news, but I think an Arsenal starting eleven that will likely include Theo Walcott, Olivier Giroud and Alexis Sanchez should still be powerful enough going forward to win this fixture. Defensively Arsenal can be vulnerable, but I am not sure Koln will be able to take full advantage and I will back the English side to win this and cover the Asian Handicap on the day.


Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Lugano Pick: This Europa League Group looks like an open one, but Hapoel Be'er Sheva have to make full use of their home games if they are going to match their run to the Last 32 of the Europa League from last season. The side have much more experience than Lugano have and I do think they can make that count here.

Playing at home has proven to be a joy for Hapoel Be'er Sheva in European competition with 4 wins from their last 5 home European ties. That includes winning all 3 in the Champions League Qualifiers at home this season and Hapoel Be'er Sheva have to feel they can get off to a winning start in the Group.

It won't be easy against Lugano who have had some really positive away results over the last year. They have won in Young Boys, although lost at the same venue this past weekend, and Lugano have also won at Grasshoppers and drawn at Basel which has to be respected.

The lack of European experience could prove to be the difference in their chances of coming out of the Group compared with the three former Champions League teams they are facing. Lugano begin their campaign at a tough away venue and I think that may show up here as I look for Hapoel Be'er Sheva to win this one.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva don't win a lot of their home European games by more than a single goal margin, but I will look for them to do that here and cover the Asian Handicap.


Marseille v Konyaspor Pick: The last couple of results for Marseille have been really terrible considering the goals they have set for the season- there is one thing in losing a game of football, but losing 6-1 at Monaco and 1-3 to Rennes are hugely disappointing results.

Generally Marseille have been better at home and I think they can bounce back from their defeat to Rennes at the weekend.

Before that result they had won 6 of 7 at home in all competitions and that includes winning both Europa League games here in the Qualifiers. Both of those wins saw Marseille winning by a least a two goal margin and they scored at least three goals in each game as they moved into the Group Stage.

They are facing a Konyaspor side who experienced the Group Stage of the Europa League but who did struggle at this level twelve months ago. A poor start domestically will have knocked some confidence from Konyaspor's players ahead of this one and they were beaten in all 3 away Group games in the Europa League by at least a couple of goals each time.

That looks the most likely outcome in this opening Group match this time around too. While neither team is in great form, Marseille have tended to be stronger at home and I think they can record a relatively comfortable win in this one against a Konyaspor team who struggled away from home in the Group last season.

MY PICKS: Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benfica - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hoffenheim - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Villarreal - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marseille - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.82 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekend Football Thoughts 2015 (September 12-14)

Another round of Premier League fixtures is in the books and it has to be said that it was a weekend when many of the top teams just underlined their ability to be there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

Over the next month of the season, I expect to see the entire League settle down and begin to take shape and this weekend looks to be the first step towards that process.

As I will try to do on a weekly basis, here are a few thoughts that have come out of the weekend games.

Is the Chelsea Title Defence Already Over?

It is hard to imagine that the image above is from only four months ago as Chelsea won the Premier League title and then came into the new season as the favourites to win it again.

I opened up my last 'weekend thoughts' post talking about Chelsea in crisis so some may think I am 'picking on them', but it is clearly one of the strangest collapses that you could have imagined.

A 3-1 loss to Everton means Chelsea have conceded at least twice in every League game they have played this season, while they have matched the total number of goals conceded in the first five games as they had conceded up to December 3rd last season.

Last season they spoke about Chelsea going unbeaten in the League thanks to a really strong start and they didn't lose a third League game until the 18th of May, yet they have matched that number of losses already.

Jose Mourinho isn't happy and there seems to be some discord between him and the rest of the squad and Chelsea now sit a huge 11 points behind leaders Manchester City.

So is the title race over for Chelsea already? I don't want to rule out a team that has been close to the top in each of the last two seasons, but I can't see Manchester City allowing a virtual four game swing against them, even at this very early stage of the season. It isn't just Manchester City, but both Arsenal and Manchester United have a healthy lead over Chelsea after five games and it will take something special for The Blues to turn this around.

I'd be very surprised to see Chelsea win the League title now, but I do expect improvements, although I don't know what Mourinho will do if Chelsea were to be beaten by Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. The lack of a response from the Chelsea squad to their recent struggles has to be a huge concern for the manager and the fans and the rumours about the unhappiness of Mourinho at Stamford Bridge refuse to go away.

This is definitely an issue to keep an eye on.

Can Sergio Aguero Stay Healthy Enough to Lead a Manchester City Champions League Challenge?

If the rumours are to be believed, Manuel Pellegrini might be moved on as Manchester City manager regardless of what he achieves in the Premier League this season, but a Champions League challenge may see the owners change their mind.

It seems to be an open secret that Manchester City would like to line up Pep Guardiola as the next manager if the Spaniard decides to leave Bayern Munich next summer as expected. That kind of move will be all about improving a poor record in the Champions League despite the money Manchester City have spent.

The image of Sergio Aguero limping off and missing a vital Champions League game has become one that is far too familiar to Manchester City fans than they would like to see. I personally think he is the best striker in the Premier League and possibly the best Number 9 in World Football, but Aguero never seems too far away from missing serious time.

The tackle from Scott Dann wasn't very clever to knock Aguero out of that game at Crystal Palace and the subsequent visit of Juventus and it does feel Manchester City only go as far as their leading man can take them.

Aguero has a very strong record of 19 goals in 28 European games for Manchester City, and the drop off to Wilfried Bony is a big one that Pellegrini won't want to have to use too often. The one big question mark about Aguero is whether he can get through a full season and Manchester City fans will be desperate he can do that as they look to at least make the Quarter Finals of the Champions League for the first time.

Watford's Defence Laying the Foundations for Avoiding Relegation

There have been so many new faces signed for Watford over the summer that it was always going to be expected that they would have some teething problems gelling together.

That might be part of the reason Watford have struggled for goals in their early Premier League games, but the defensive shape looks to be spot on and could form the foundation of a successful season.

The 1-0 win over Swansea City highlighted that shape as they managed to hold out against an in-form team despite playing large parts of the second half with just ten men. Watford managed to keep a third clean sheet in five games and maybe they won't need to score as many goals as a team like Bournemouth to survive the drop.

If they can start scoring goals, Watford could soon find themselves climbing the table rapidly and the defence will get a lot of credit for that if they can also maintain their level.

Getting knocked out of the Capital One Cup might be a bonus for Watford and they have a decent set of games coming up before the next international break to get some serious points on the board.

Brendan Rodgers on the Brink of the Sack

That is what the rumours were suggesting in the wake of the Manchester United loss for Liverpool on Saturday, with some even reporting a potential board meeting on the Sunday.

The last eighteen months have been a rollercoaster for Rodgers- if Liverpool win the Premier League at the end of May 2014, Rodgers would be nigh on untouchable at the club, or at least afforded more time to get things right.

However, Rodgers doesn't have the silverware to back him up and Liverpool look to have slipped since exceeding expectations in 2014, while my one criticism of the manager has to be the poor signings he has made.

For every decent signing made like Daniel Sturridge or Philippe Coutinho, Rodgers has bought the likes of Rickie Lambert, Mario Balotelli, Lazar Markovic or Dejan Lovren.

That is where Rodgers has failed for me, but I think he does deserve time to try and turn things around once his key players are back fit and healthy. Rodgers missed Sturridge and Jordan Henderson at Old Trafford, although the bigger worry might be the change in his style of play since purchasing Christian Benteke.

Of course you should adapt to get the best out of a player, but my concern would be why has Rodgers bought players that simply don't fit what he wants to do. Surely a manager should purchase those who fit his system, not change everything around for a single player bought?

If it was for Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi you might change things, but Rodgers has purchased some really average players and the lack of attacking quality against Manchester United would have been the most disappointing thing for the Liverpool fans who had made the trip up the M62.

The next month is critical for Rodgers- we all know Liverpool had a tough fixture list to start off the season, but they play four straight home games after the trip to Bordeaux in the Europa League and Rodgers has to oversee four wins. That might give his team some real momentum to take into the Merseyside derby at Goodison Park prior to the next international break.

On the other hand, fail to get the results required and that two week gap between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur might just be the time the board will look to make their change.

I'm Beginning to Warm to Tim Sherwood

When Tim Sherwood took over at Tottenham Hotspur and later moved on as manager of Aston Villa, I didn't think he was much more than a short-term fix for clubs.

That was the extent of his man-motivation abilities, and I wasn't convinced about him as a manager at all.

Now I am not saying I suddenly think he is the next coming of Sir Alex Ferguson, but I have begun to warm towards Sherwood thanks to his very honest appraisals in his press interviews.

Look at that face- there is no hiding the disappointment, 'gutted-ness' and frustration that Sherwood had having seen his Aston Villa team blow a 0-2 lead at Leicester City to lose 3-2.

I think that will sit well with the fans- it's nice to see a manager who feels the pain as much as the fans would have in that last thirty minutes and there is no bullshit around what Sherwood feels. Aston Villa will be hoping he can start turning around some of the results too, but I will admit I actually like Sherwood and the passion he does show for his teams.

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (September 12-14)

The two week international break always feels like a really long time to wait for the Premier League games to restart, but at least this set of Euro 2016 Qualifiers were a little more interesting with so much at stake.

Only five of the twenty-four teams that will be playing in France were confirmed, but the likes of Spain, Germany, Belgium, Italy and Portugal are on the brink of qualifying too.

Wales look almost certain to join England as one of the home nations in France next summer, while Northern Ireland's late equaliser against Hungary puts them on the brink too.


It wasn't all fun and games for the nations of interest though as the Netherlands were beaten twice and now need to win their final two games and hope Turkey either lose one or fail to win both to just get into the Play Offs.

Most Scottish fans will have just considered 'Scotland being Scotland' in putting in a terrible performance against Georgia before an outstanding effort against Germany which ended up providing them a grand total of zero points. That means automatic qualification is almost gone for Scotland and even overturning the Republic of Ireland in 3rd is going to take some effort, although Scotland have the 'easier' remaining two games in the Group.


Anyway, you can put a pin in the European Championships for now as we have a month of domestic action as well as the start of the Champions League and Europa League to come before another break in play after the first weekend in October.

There are some big matches in both the Premier League and European competition in that time and the picture in the League table should become clearer.

Before I get onto the weekend picks, you can read a few things that interested me about the last Premier League weekend two weeks ago here.


Everton v Chelsea Pick: The third year of a Jose Mourinho tenure at previous clubs has been seen as the tipping point where his 'us against the world' mentality turns to 'Mourinho against the world'. Falling out with owners or players has been a feature of that third year by the end of which everyone has seemingly had enough of him and a parting of the ways is agreed.

Chelsea fans will be hoping that rumours of discontent behind the scenes at Stamford Bridge are only rumours, but Mourinho hasn't looked happy from the opening day of the season. He clearly wanted reinforcements that haven't arrived at the club and Chelsea's poor start to the new season has only increased the pressure to get things right.

Do I think the Chelsea players have aged overnight or lost their appetite for winning trophies? No, I think it has been a mix of bad luck and running into a couple of teams in very strong form and I do expect them to be there or thereabouts when the Premier League is decided in May.

However, they have to start winning now and a game at Goodison Park is far from easy, especially as the home crowd will be baying for blood after Chelsea's fruitless pursuit of John Stones over the last three months. There is clearly a straining of the relationship between the clubs and a fired up atmosphere could lead to a very good game on Saturday lunchtime.

Neither team has looked convincing at the back, but both have shown they have the capabilities of scoring goals and that is where I am looking for this opening game of the next round of Premier League games. Jose Mourinho will start getting things right defensively, but they haven't had a clean sheet at Everton in their last 8 visits in all competitions and many of the Chelsea players have been on international duty this past week.

On the other hand, Everton have conceded twice in both home games this season and have looked a little shaky at the back. It won't match the nine goals scored here in this fixture last season, but an odds against quote for there being at least three goals looks appealing, far more so than the comically short price on a Chelsea win.


Arsenal v Stoke City Pick: It is hard to imagine Arsenal keep firing blanks at home, but The Gunners have seemingly been out of bullets here since the end of last season with 5 of their last 6 games at The Emirates Stadium ending with a '0' by the home teams name.

However, this is just a weird trend if you ask me because Arsenal have plenty of attacking options at their disposal and have created enough chances in the first couple of games here to think the goals will soon come. To be honest it feels someone is going to take something of a hiding here sooner or later and Stoke City might be ripe for that this weekend.

This isn't the Stoke City of Tony Pulis who will come and focus all attention of making life difficult for Arsenal, but Mark Hughes' team who like to try and play their football. It isn't always the best policy when Arsenal are in form and that has resulted in Stoke City conceding three times in both visits to this part of North London under Hughes.

Stoke City fans might say that this Arsenal team isn't in the best of form and it is a perfect time to catch them, but I do think the home team have created enough chances to think they will eventually start scoring them. Giving Arsenal the time and room to play their football is never really a good thing and I am expecting them to put up their first home three points of the new season.

I do think Stoke City will have their moments, but Arsenal should be too strong and I will back them to beat a Mark Hughes Stoke City side by at least two goals for the third season in a row.


Crystal Palace v Manchester City Pick: It has been a brilliant start to the new season for Manchester City who have come out of the blocks hungry and looking to regain the Premier League title they gave up without much of a fight last season. This seems to be a squad that thrives when they have something to prove and how they handle their Champions League commitments alongside the Premier League ones will determine if Manchester City are able to get into a huge lead by the turn of the year.

They would have enjoyed seeing the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool all dropping points in the first month of the season and Manchester City are the only team in the Premier League that has won all 4 League games played.

And it hasn't been like Manchester City have taken advantage of an 'easy' early fixture list having won at West Brom and Everton and beaten the Champions Chelsea at home, all by convincing margins. However, I don't think any of those teams came into those games in the kind of confidence Crystal Palace will this weekend having beaten Chelsea prior to the international break at Stamford Bridge no less.

Alan Pardew has really done a good job at Selhurst Park over the last nine months and there is pace and power in the forward lines that makes them dangerous. I do think they will be a better team away from home when they can really employ the counter attack which makes them as dangerous as almost any in the Premier League.

Even in a game like this, Pardew will know Manchester City will dominate the possession and he will look for the side to get the ball quickly to the likes of Yannick Bolasie to turn the table on Manchester City. Crystal Palace are a threat and they beat Manchester City here last season, but they didn't really have enough to take on the best teams outside of that.

Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United all won here in the League last season and Arsenal have already recorded a 1-2 win here this. Liverpool also won a Cup game here, but all of those games were tight with Crystal Palace losing every one by the same 1-2 scoreline.

That has to be a real player again this weekend and I wouldn't put off anyone who wants a small interest in Manchester City winning this game 1-2 at 8.50.


Norwich City v Bournemouth Pick: This is the kind of game that teams look back on in April and say 'if only' when they are perhaps struggling for points later in the campaign. Both Alex Neil and Eddie Howe will understand the importance of putting points on the board for Norwich City and Bournemouth respectively and you have to think both will feel confident their sides have enough to secure the three points.

Norwich City and Bournemouth have both settled into life in the Premier League having found their way onto the scoreboard in games and both having won their first games of the season.

The chance of seeing goals might actually be a touch under-rated by the layers in this one as both teams have shown their ability in front of goal, but also perhaps the defensive lack of concentration. Neither team has achieved a clean sheet in the Premier League this season and both games involving these two in the Championship last year saw the teams hit the back of the net.

The Canaries are home and they will be expected to come forward, but Bournemouth have shown they might have unearthed a striker capable of scoring goals at this level in Callum Wilson and will be dangerous on the counter attack. It wouldn't surprise me at all if both Norwich City and Bournemouth were to score and neither manager is likely to settle for a point if those goals come early enough.

I think there is a distinct possibility this game will end up in a 2-1 scoreline to one of the teams and backing at least three goals to be scored looks the call.


Watford v Swansea City Pick: This has been a game that the layers have found it tough to separate Watford and Swansea City and you can understand where they are coming from. They might be at opposite ends of the early Premier League table, but Watford have only been beaten once this season and Swansea City have failed to win away from home.

The draw does look a big player in this one, but I think a small interest is warranted on Swansea City rectifying their lack of away wins by picking up the three points here. While Watford have been tough at the back with a couple of clean sheets at home, I would argue that Swansea City are the most dynamic attack they would have faced with plenty of pace and power in the forward areas to score goals.

Swansea have scored in all 5 games they have played this season in all competitions and they will have room on the counter attack to get at Watford despite the two clean sheets kept by The Hornets at home. Watford have been unlucky in a couple of games this season, especially the home game with West Brom, but they are still trying to find a genuine goalscorer at this level and that might be the difference between the teams.

While Watford have struggled for goals, Swansea have Bafetimbi Gomes and Andre Ayew in very good form and the return of Jefferson Montero gives them more pace on the left side of attack. Swansea City should really have won at Sunderland in the Premier League and I think they will create the chances to win this one.

A little more clinical execution in front of goal should give Garry Monk's side every chance of earning the three points and a small interest in them doing so is warranted.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: There is no bigger game in English football as the two most successful clubs in the country meet on Saturday, although these days it might be more about trying to finish in the top four than winning the top flight title.

Neither sets of fans will want to admit that, but both Manchester United and Liverpool still look short of the standards being set by Chelsea and Manchester City and finishing in the top four has to be the minimum expected due to the size of the clubs.

Out of the two, Manchester United perhaps look a little stronger in all areas especially now they have managed to keep David De Gea out of the clutches of Real Madrid for another season at least. It is unlikely the Spanish goalkeeper extends his contract, but Louis Van Gaal has to throw him back in on Saturday after Sergio Romero showed why Sampdoria were happy to release him on a free transfer in a poor performance at Swansea City.

It was only a matter of time before Romero had the rush of blood to the head having gotten away with a couple of strange moments and at least it didn't happen in the Liverpool game (touch wood if he is playing on Saturday).

Liverpool had made a positive start to the new season, but a 0-3 home defeat to West Ham United has to have shaken their belief, while losing Philippe Coutinho to suspension is a huge blow. If Jordan Henderson and Adam Lallana are also missing, Manchester United should be able to dictate proceedings through their midfield and I do think the home team can extend a strong recent record against their rivals.

Home wins have been one feature of recent games at Old Trafford, but goals has been the other big trend when these two teams meet. 13 of the last 16 Premier League fixtures has seen at least three goals shared by the teams, while the last 8 League games at Old Trafford have seen that number reached.

Early performances from both teams might not have inspired too many to believe they will be seeing goals on Saturday and that is shown up in what the layers think. However, anyone who watched the Arsenal versus Liverpool game earlier this season will know how many chances were created and I do think we will see at least three goals on Saturday.

However, my pick is actually going to be backing Manchester United to win coupled with at least three goals being scored in the match at a decent price. All 6 of Manchester United's last 6 home wins against Liverpool have seen this goal tally reached while the games under Louis Van Gaal against the top teams last season at Old Trafford also saw plenty of wins and goals.

I do think the absence of Coutinho and possibly Henderson and Lallana will give Liverpool big holes to fill and Manchester United can get a tough couple of months off to a flying start on Saturday.


Leicester City v Aston Villa Pick: There are two Super Sunday offerings this week with the prices similar in both when it comes to the win-draw-win markets. Both matches have an odds on favourite to win, but I fancy Leicester City a lot more than I would goal-shy Tottenham Hotspur to earn the three points this weekend.

Pace, movement and clinical finishing has been the key for Leicester City so far this season and that could give this Aston Villa backline plenty of questions to answer in what is a fairly local derby. Leicester City have also shown character as they have come from behind in their last two Premier League games to earn a point and Claudio Ranieri might be a little disappointed they couldn't turn around the game at Bournemouth completely in a 1-1 draw prior to the international break.

The Foxes have shown a consistent goal threat during their first five games in all competitions this season and Aston Villa's leaky defensive problems have shown little sign of abating. They haven't kept a clean sheet since the opening day and Aston Villa have conceded at least twice in each of their last three games in all competitions.

Tim Sherwood has at least given them an attacking platform as Aston Villa do look capable of scoring goals from set pieces and have pace of their own in wide areas and through the middle up front. However, I am not sure they will be able to handle Leicester City effectively through the ninety minutes and it looks like the home team can win this match for the second season in a row at the KP Stadium.


West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: If you could guess which West Ham United team was going to turn up from week to week, you could be a very rich man already after one month of the season.

This is a team that has lost to 11.00 Birkirkara, 3.50 Bournemouth and 3.50 Leicester City this season, but won games at Arsenal and Liverpool at huge prices. The Jekyll and Hyde nature of the West Ham United team makes them hard to read and they can't underestimate a Newcastle United team that might be moulding into something pretty decent under Steve McClaren.

The Magpies have given both Manchester United and Arsenal tough games, although McClaren will be hoping for more in front of goals having failed to score since the opening day in the League. Alexander Mitrovic is suspended for this game to take away a threat up front (threat to be sent off rather than score at the moment to be honest), but Papiss Cisse can plug the hole and there is some talent behind him.

I expect Newcastle United to give this a right go on Monday Night Football and I do think they can pose West Ham United some problems. Defensively The Hammers have looked all over the place in their two League games at Upton Park, but again the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the team has seen them perform admirably in keeping clean sheets against Arsenal and Liverpool.

It might have something to do with the expectation at home and Slaven Bilic might have to play a little more open at Upton Park than he is expected to do in the away games they have played. Pushing forward has left a few more holes in the defence that have been exploited by the pace that Leicester City and Bournemouth had in forward areas and Newcastle United do have the players to do the same.

To that end having Cisse starting instead of Mitrovic might be a blessing and this could be the most entertaining of the Monday Night Football games to date this season.

MY PICKS: Everton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win 2-1 @ 8.50 Betfair Sportsbook (0.5 Units)
Norwich City-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Swansea City @ 2.88 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Manchester United to Win & Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 3.40 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Leicester City @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
West Ham United-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

September Update: 8-7-2, + 2.54 Units (33 Units Staked, + 7.70% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)