Thursday proved to be a very strong day for the Tennis Picks from the Paris Masters and another couple of players fell away from a potential top eight finish and a place at the ATP World Tour Finals.
Both John Isner and Borna Coric were beaten which means there are now two places available with three players in the running to make those. Marin Cilic is on the brink of securing his place and Dominic Thiem is not far behind which may mean Kei Nishikori has to wait and see what happens with Juan Martin Del Potro and Rafael Nadal before determining if he is going to have an opportunity to play in London.
Kei Nishikori could still confirm that place without the need to see others withdraw, but he has to really win the Paris Masters and hope Cilic and Thiem are knocked out as soon as possible. It is certainly a long shot, but we will see where things stand at the end of Friday when the Quarter Final matches are completed.
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The vast improvements made by Karen Khachanov in 2018 is backing up my opinion that this young Russian player is a future Grand Slam Champion in the making. He has begun to make a big move up the World Rankings and Khachanov is looking to put a neat bow on 2018 before getting preparation together for the 2019 season as he looks to win another title.
This would be the biggest one in his career, but Khachanov has to snap a losing record against Alexander Zverev who is the one youngster that has joined the elite in men's tennis. The German is set for another appearance at the ATP World Tour Finals and while this could be a rivalry that decides major titles in the years ahead, Zverev is currently further along than Khachanov.
They met at a Grand Slam earlier this season and it was a very close match at the French Open which saw Zverev come from 1-2 down in sets to win in five sets. That is arguably a match that took place on a surface on which Zverev is more comfortable than Khachanov, but that won't be the case on Friday with both having very similar numbers on the hard courts in 2018.
Khachanov showed his improvement in his win over John Isner on Thursday in the Third Round, but it was a longer match than it should have been with match points missed in the second set. Overall his return game has not been as strong as Zverev's and that could be the difference between them in this Quarter Final, while Khachanov has had to win three matches to reach this Round compared to his opponent's two wins.
It could all add up to Zverev having a little more in the tank compared with Khachanov and I think it will lead to a win for the higher Ranked player. If Khachanov serves as well as he can, then this could be a more difficult match for Zverev, but I think the German can serve just as big and has the superior return game which could mean one or two more break points are earned and he can be in a position to win and cover in this Quarter Final.
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Jack Sock: Twelve months ago Jack Sock may have been playing the best tennis of his career which saw him win the Paris Masters and sneak into the ATP World Tour Finals. The American reached the Semi Final in his maiden appearance in the Tour Finals, but 2018 has been a considerably more difficult season for Sock and he is set for a big drop in the World Rankings.
Being back in Paris at this tournament may be inspiring Sock to make another big effort at winning the title here and preventing the kind of fall in the World Rankings that may have been coming with another early exit in a tournament. Sock had been 5-13 on the hard courts in 2018 so you couldn't really have a lot of hope he was going to have a week where he would win back to back hard court matches for the first time this season.
Wins over Richard Gasquet and Malek Jaziri have to be respected particularly as Sock has won all four sets played so far this week and only once has he lost more than three games in a set.
I do think the quality of opposition increases by some margin when he faces Dominic Thiem in this Quarter Final, but Sock was able to beat the Austrian here two years ago. That will give Sock confidence and it is clearly not a result that Thiem has forgotten as he looks to get back to the ATP World Tour Finals.
Thiem is actually fun to listen to- unlike most players who will use the 'one match at a time' style of interview, Thiem has made it clear he knows exactly what he needs to do to return to London for the Tour Finals. That attitude is appealing to the fans and he has also spoken about how tough this match will be and about that defeat to Sock in 2016.
He has been much improved on the hard courts in 2018 compared to previous years and Thiem will be very confident he can win this match. I do worry about some of the nervousness he displayed in his win over Borna Coric in the Third Round, but that shows how much Thiem wants to do well at this tournament and he has been playing much stronger tennis than Sock in 2018.
You can't ignore the two wins Sock has had here this week and even Thiem admitted Sock will be a tough out as the defending Champion here. However I think Sock is going to need to improve his game from his two wins over Gasquet and Jaziri this week and I will back Thiem to win and cover what looks to be a big number.
Roger Federer - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: I don't think it is secret that Roger Federer is not playing as well in the second half of 2018 as he was at the beginning of the calendar year, but he can still end the year with some positive results.
Winning the title in Basel was a big achievement for Federer considering he was rarely at his absolute best, but he is looking to back that up at the Paris Masters before the ATP World Tour Finals begins.
Federer had to dig deep to beat Fabio Fognini in the Third Round and he will be the first to admit that he will need to be a lot stronger if he is going to get the better of Kei Nishikori. The latter is still chasing a place at the Tour Finals and he has been in fine form over the last couple of months which should give him confidence to reverse the result from when these players met at the Shanghai Masters.
It was Federer's slightly superior serving that gave Federer the chance to win that match, but it was a tight contest and I am not convinced that Federer would have won if the match had moved into a third set.
However he has maintained the strong run of success against Nishikori and the latter continues to have his difficulties in big matches as well as those against some of the stronger players on the Tour. That could potentially be a real factor going against Nishikori again when these players meet in the Quarter Final and I am going to back Federer to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paris Masters Update: 5-1, + 7.10 Units (12 Units Staked, + 59.17% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Paris. Show all posts
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Friday, 2 November 2018
Thursday, 1 November 2018
Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (November 1st)
There are just a couple of big tournaments to left to wrap up the 2018 Tennis season and we are very much in the midst of one of those at the Paris Masters which has reached the Third Round.
Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have some real doubts around them surrounding their participation in the ATP World Tour Finals after both withdrew from the main draw here and this is the time of the season when players perhaps start to think about the upcoming break they are going to enjoy.
Others have vital Ranking points to earn if they are going to have a chance to be Seeded in a good position at the Australian Open, while there are still a couple of places to be secured in London for the ATP World Tour Finals.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: These two players are amongst the biggest names on the ATP Tour, but Marin Cilic is ending the season in a poor run of form while Grigor Dimitrov has had an underwhelming 2018 season.
At least Cilic has played well enough through the course of the season to be set for a return to London and the ATP World Tour Finals. His position has not been confirmed just yet, but Cilic could be right on the brink of earning a top eight finish by moving through to the Paris Masters Quarter Final.
It has been tough work for Cilic over the last month with a couple of upsets going against him, but he has been a little unfortunate at times too. In some of those defeats Cilic has been one or two points from really turning the match in his favour and I have more confidence in him than I do in Grigor Dimitrov.
The Bulgarian beat Roberto Bautista Agut in the Second Round in straight sets despite the two players winning the same amount of points. It looks like Dimitrov has brought in Andre Agassi to help him out, but that impact won't be felt until 2019 and this is a player who has surprisingly struggled on the hard courts.
Dimitrov did win the ATP World Tour Finals in 2017, but he won't be involved in London which means this is a big week for him to pick up some vital Ranking points. However he is going to have to return much more effectively than he has done and I do think Cilic can get into the Dimitrov service games which makes the Croatian a significant favourite in this one.
It is Cilic who holds the head to head advantage over Dimitrov too and I think he will be good enough to win this match and cover this number.
Kevin Anderson v Kei Nishikori: He may now be 33 years old, but Kevin Anderson has underlined the fact he may be playing the best tennis of his career by reaching the ATP World Tour Finals for the first time. The South African won the title in Vienna on Sunday and faces the same opponent he met on his way to winning the biggest tournament of his career.
Kei Nishikori is chasing a place in London and needs to beat Kevin Anderson or he will be hoping there are one or two players who drop out of competing at the final tournament of the season.
This has been a strong year for Nishikori on his return to the Tour following injury, although he is still not quite back to his very best. Nishikori has been in fine form over the several weeks having following up his run to the US Open Semi Final by finishing Runner Up in Tokyo and Vienna, although I do wonder whether the confidence is still not quite up to full level with a couple of losses at the business end of tournaments.
His hard court numbers have been decent in 2018 and there hasn't been much between those and Kevin Anderson's hard court numbers. The latter has really enjoyed playing on the surface in the last couple of years and Anderson holds a vital mental edge over Nishikori having beaten him twice on the hard courts in 2018 including a few days ago in Vienna.
In those matches the key difference has been the superiority of the Anderson serve and that may be the outcome again in this Third Round match. While Anderson has been able to look after his serve effectively against Nishikori, the Japanese star has not been able to avoid the one or two sloppy service games that have been something of a feature of his play in 2018.
Fatigue is a potential issue, especially as Anderson had to spend a lot more time on the court on Wednesday than Nishikori did, but I think the serve can see him avoid being involved in too many long rallies and the big South African can be backed as the underdog to win this match.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kevin Andeson @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have some real doubts around them surrounding their participation in the ATP World Tour Finals after both withdrew from the main draw here and this is the time of the season when players perhaps start to think about the upcoming break they are going to enjoy.
Others have vital Ranking points to earn if they are going to have a chance to be Seeded in a good position at the Australian Open, while there are still a couple of places to be secured in London for the ATP World Tour Finals.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: These two players are amongst the biggest names on the ATP Tour, but Marin Cilic is ending the season in a poor run of form while Grigor Dimitrov has had an underwhelming 2018 season.
At least Cilic has played well enough through the course of the season to be set for a return to London and the ATP World Tour Finals. His position has not been confirmed just yet, but Cilic could be right on the brink of earning a top eight finish by moving through to the Paris Masters Quarter Final.
It has been tough work for Cilic over the last month with a couple of upsets going against him, but he has been a little unfortunate at times too. In some of those defeats Cilic has been one or two points from really turning the match in his favour and I have more confidence in him than I do in Grigor Dimitrov.
The Bulgarian beat Roberto Bautista Agut in the Second Round in straight sets despite the two players winning the same amount of points. It looks like Dimitrov has brought in Andre Agassi to help him out, but that impact won't be felt until 2019 and this is a player who has surprisingly struggled on the hard courts.
Dimitrov did win the ATP World Tour Finals in 2017, but he won't be involved in London which means this is a big week for him to pick up some vital Ranking points. However he is going to have to return much more effectively than he has done and I do think Cilic can get into the Dimitrov service games which makes the Croatian a significant favourite in this one.
It is Cilic who holds the head to head advantage over Dimitrov too and I think he will be good enough to win this match and cover this number.
Kevin Anderson v Kei Nishikori: He may now be 33 years old, but Kevin Anderson has underlined the fact he may be playing the best tennis of his career by reaching the ATP World Tour Finals for the first time. The South African won the title in Vienna on Sunday and faces the same opponent he met on his way to winning the biggest tournament of his career.
Kei Nishikori is chasing a place in London and needs to beat Kevin Anderson or he will be hoping there are one or two players who drop out of competing at the final tournament of the season.
This has been a strong year for Nishikori on his return to the Tour following injury, although he is still not quite back to his very best. Nishikori has been in fine form over the several weeks having following up his run to the US Open Semi Final by finishing Runner Up in Tokyo and Vienna, although I do wonder whether the confidence is still not quite up to full level with a couple of losses at the business end of tournaments.
His hard court numbers have been decent in 2018 and there hasn't been much between those and Kevin Anderson's hard court numbers. The latter has really enjoyed playing on the surface in the last couple of years and Anderson holds a vital mental edge over Nishikori having beaten him twice on the hard courts in 2018 including a few days ago in Vienna.
In those matches the key difference has been the superiority of the Anderson serve and that may be the outcome again in this Third Round match. While Anderson has been able to look after his serve effectively against Nishikori, the Japanese star has not been able to avoid the one or two sloppy service games that have been something of a feature of his play in 2018.
Fatigue is a potential issue, especially as Anderson had to spend a lot more time on the court on Wednesday than Nishikori did, but I think the serve can see him avoid being involved in too many long rallies and the big South African can be backed as the underdog to win this match.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kevin Andeson @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Saturday, 5 November 2016
Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 5th)
Novak Djokovic was stunned in his Quarter Final match against Marin Cilic who he had never been beaten by on the main Tour and that has opened the door for Andy Murray to become the World Number 1.
Another win for Murray on Saturday will send Murray to the top of the World Rankings on Monday in what would be the final thing to check off in what has been a stunning career. He might never reach the level of the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Djokovic in terms of their historical positions, but Murray has to be given a lot of credit for winning majors and reaching the top of the World Rankings while those players are still around.
Murray has won Grand Slam titles, a number of Masters events, the Davis Cup, two Olympic Gold Medals and potentially reaches the World Number 1 spot on Saturday and I am sure he would have accepted that as a career when he began playing tennis. All credit to him if achieves that, and even if Murray misses out tomorrow you have to think it is only a matter of time before he does hit the top spot in the Rankings.
It is a testament to his consistency that he has will have potentially reached World Number 1 when you consider Novak Djokovic has won two of the four Grand Slam titles in 2016 and Murray won one. Both reached three Finals but Novak Djokovic has not been able to find his form over the last few months which has cost him his place compared with Murray who has been winning titles and plenty of matches.
I find it hard to imagine Murray will be a long-term Number 1 and I don't think he will be going into tournaments as the favourite despite his World Ranking, but no one will ever be able to take this achievement for him. There will be more calls for him to be Knighted from certain sections of the media, but I have never really thought simply being really good in your sport is another reason to be given that honour.
That is a different take on matters though and I just think the concentration should be on Murray's achievements in his career.
On Saturday we get to the Semi Final matches in Paris and at the WTA Elite Trophy. Next week we have no tennis of note before the Fed Cup begins at the end of the week and the World Tour Finals get going on Sunday. I am looking for two more good days for the picks to get this week ending on a strong note before the break of a few days going into the World Tour Finals.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: 2016 will always be looked back upon by Shuai Zhang as a memorable season for her and she has the chance to play for the WTA Elite Trophy if she can win this Semi Final. It is hard to think that it hasn't been that long since Zhang was considering her future in the game with results failing to be produced on the court despite the hard work off it.
This season that has paid off and Zhang won't want the 2016 season to come to an end just yet with the home fans fully behind her. However she is going to be facing a huge challenge in the form of Petra Kvitova who has played well in Asian in her career and who has been in dominant form in her two matches this week.
A lot of this match is going to be dictated by the Kvitova racquet as she has the power advantage and should be the stronger player if she can maintain some consistency. Zhang will try to fight fire with fire, but she doesn't get the same amount of cheap points from the serve as Kvitova does when she is serving well and that is an issue for her.
Both players have had some positive results to end the 2016 season, but Kvitova is trying to keep the momentum behind her with Fed Cup duties next week and she has been serving well enough to come through with a 63, 64 win in this Semi Final.
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: Another player who has had a memorable 2016 season is Johanna Konta and she is looking to end it with another title as she will be heading into the next season as a top ten player in the World Ranking. Any disappointment of missing out on a place in the WTA Finals has been forgotten by Konta who has had two very good wins this week.
Even with that in mind, I do think Elina Svitolina is the toughest player she would have met so far in the WTA Elite Trophy and this is a player who has been ending the season in strong form. The Ukrainian player might not want to go back to the tournament in Moscow due to off court issues, but she has won two matches this week to make the Semi Final as she bids to take the next step in her career in 2017.
The match up looks to be a good one and I can see both Konta and Svitolina having their moments in this one while I am giving Konta the edge when it comes to consistency with her play from the back of the court. However I do think Svitolina can perhaps reach a higher level when she begins to produce some unplayable tennis and that makes it hard to separate these players in this Semi Final.
I actually had this set as a pick 'em Semi Final so I am surprised that Svitolina is being given as many games as she has in this one. That has tempted me in, especially at odds against, and I think Svitolina can push Konta all the way in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if she is able to win this match outright so I will back the Ukrainian with the games.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v John Isner: After fourteen losses in a row, Marin Cilic finally beat Novak Djokovic when they met in the Quarter Final and that might be the win that knocks Djokovic from the top of the World Rankings. Marin Cilic isn't worrying about those matters but simply looking to end 2016 in the kind of form he can use early in 2017 at the Australian Open and he is well on the way to doing that.
He has yet to really recover the kind of form that took him to the US Open title in 2014, but Cilic has looked better the last few weeks and the win over Djokovic should be huge for his confidence. It can be hard to back up such impressive wins, but Cilic has a very strong 6-0 head to head advantage over John Isner and I think the Croatian can find the breaks of serve to win this match.
John Isner just hasn't looked right in the last few weeks of the season with his serve the only thing that is really working with consistency. But even the serve has let him down at times with players able to get that back in play and watch Isner implode behind it and Cilic has the big reach to make sure he gets enough balls back in play in this one.
With a win over Ivo Karlovic already this week, Cilic has recently experienced facing a big serve and he should be the stronger player as long as he plays smart and does not give up his own serve easily. Isner is a limited returner, but Cilic doesn't want to give him too many second serves to look at and preventing that should see him have the edge in this match.
I will be looking for Cilic to try and match the three breaks of serve Jack Sock had against John Isner on Friday and that should be good enough to win this match and cover the number.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: Andy Murray admitted there were some nerves going into his Quarter Final with Tomas Berdych with the Number 1 spot on the line in the next couple of days, but he managed to get himself mentally ready to go. I am sure he will be feeling some nerves again, but Murray has to feel he can nullify the Milos Raonic serve and getting into the rallies will give him a big edge in this match.
There won't be any concern facing Raonic in terms of what to expect- Murray will be well aware that Raonic is going to try and dominate behind a big first serve and a heavy forehand to follow that up, but Murray will look to attack the second serve and also try and get most returns and shots into the backhand wing of the Canadian.
Murray will more than expect to win the majority of those rallies that last more than four or five shots and he has been serving well enough to prevent a limited returner from really getting into the match. Any belief that this is going to be an easy day in the office will be put to the back of the mind by remembering how close Raonic came to beating Murray at the Australian Open, but Murray has won all five matches played between them and that should give him the mental edge.
This has been a good week for Raonic, but he hadn't been in the kind of form Murray has brought into the tournament and I think the latter is going to be too good for him on the day. A couple of breaks of serve might be enough for Murray to come through with a 64, 64 win and I like the British player to become the World Number 1 on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 16-10, + 10.76 Units (52 Units Staked, + 20.69% Yield)
Another win for Murray on Saturday will send Murray to the top of the World Rankings on Monday in what would be the final thing to check off in what has been a stunning career. He might never reach the level of the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Djokovic in terms of their historical positions, but Murray has to be given a lot of credit for winning majors and reaching the top of the World Rankings while those players are still around.
Murray has won Grand Slam titles, a number of Masters events, the Davis Cup, two Olympic Gold Medals and potentially reaches the World Number 1 spot on Saturday and I am sure he would have accepted that as a career when he began playing tennis. All credit to him if achieves that, and even if Murray misses out tomorrow you have to think it is only a matter of time before he does hit the top spot in the Rankings.
It is a testament to his consistency that he has will have potentially reached World Number 1 when you consider Novak Djokovic has won two of the four Grand Slam titles in 2016 and Murray won one. Both reached three Finals but Novak Djokovic has not been able to find his form over the last few months which has cost him his place compared with Murray who has been winning titles and plenty of matches.
I find it hard to imagine Murray will be a long-term Number 1 and I don't think he will be going into tournaments as the favourite despite his World Ranking, but no one will ever be able to take this achievement for him. There will be more calls for him to be Knighted from certain sections of the media, but I have never really thought simply being really good in your sport is another reason to be given that honour.
That is a different take on matters though and I just think the concentration should be on Murray's achievements in his career.
On Saturday we get to the Semi Final matches in Paris and at the WTA Elite Trophy. Next week we have no tennis of note before the Fed Cup begins at the end of the week and the World Tour Finals get going on Sunday. I am looking for two more good days for the picks to get this week ending on a strong note before the break of a few days going into the World Tour Finals.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: 2016 will always be looked back upon by Shuai Zhang as a memorable season for her and she has the chance to play for the WTA Elite Trophy if she can win this Semi Final. It is hard to think that it hasn't been that long since Zhang was considering her future in the game with results failing to be produced on the court despite the hard work off it.
This season that has paid off and Zhang won't want the 2016 season to come to an end just yet with the home fans fully behind her. However she is going to be facing a huge challenge in the form of Petra Kvitova who has played well in Asian in her career and who has been in dominant form in her two matches this week.
A lot of this match is going to be dictated by the Kvitova racquet as she has the power advantage and should be the stronger player if she can maintain some consistency. Zhang will try to fight fire with fire, but she doesn't get the same amount of cheap points from the serve as Kvitova does when she is serving well and that is an issue for her.
Both players have had some positive results to end the 2016 season, but Kvitova is trying to keep the momentum behind her with Fed Cup duties next week and she has been serving well enough to come through with a 63, 64 win in this Semi Final.
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: Another player who has had a memorable 2016 season is Johanna Konta and she is looking to end it with another title as she will be heading into the next season as a top ten player in the World Ranking. Any disappointment of missing out on a place in the WTA Finals has been forgotten by Konta who has had two very good wins this week.
Even with that in mind, I do think Elina Svitolina is the toughest player she would have met so far in the WTA Elite Trophy and this is a player who has been ending the season in strong form. The Ukrainian player might not want to go back to the tournament in Moscow due to off court issues, but she has won two matches this week to make the Semi Final as she bids to take the next step in her career in 2017.
The match up looks to be a good one and I can see both Konta and Svitolina having their moments in this one while I am giving Konta the edge when it comes to consistency with her play from the back of the court. However I do think Svitolina can perhaps reach a higher level when she begins to produce some unplayable tennis and that makes it hard to separate these players in this Semi Final.
I actually had this set as a pick 'em Semi Final so I am surprised that Svitolina is being given as many games as she has in this one. That has tempted me in, especially at odds against, and I think Svitolina can push Konta all the way in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if she is able to win this match outright so I will back the Ukrainian with the games.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v John Isner: After fourteen losses in a row, Marin Cilic finally beat Novak Djokovic when they met in the Quarter Final and that might be the win that knocks Djokovic from the top of the World Rankings. Marin Cilic isn't worrying about those matters but simply looking to end 2016 in the kind of form he can use early in 2017 at the Australian Open and he is well on the way to doing that.
He has yet to really recover the kind of form that took him to the US Open title in 2014, but Cilic has looked better the last few weeks and the win over Djokovic should be huge for his confidence. It can be hard to back up such impressive wins, but Cilic has a very strong 6-0 head to head advantage over John Isner and I think the Croatian can find the breaks of serve to win this match.
John Isner just hasn't looked right in the last few weeks of the season with his serve the only thing that is really working with consistency. But even the serve has let him down at times with players able to get that back in play and watch Isner implode behind it and Cilic has the big reach to make sure he gets enough balls back in play in this one.
With a win over Ivo Karlovic already this week, Cilic has recently experienced facing a big serve and he should be the stronger player as long as he plays smart and does not give up his own serve easily. Isner is a limited returner, but Cilic doesn't want to give him too many second serves to look at and preventing that should see him have the edge in this match.
I will be looking for Cilic to try and match the three breaks of serve Jack Sock had against John Isner on Friday and that should be good enough to win this match and cover the number.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: Andy Murray admitted there were some nerves going into his Quarter Final with Tomas Berdych with the Number 1 spot on the line in the next couple of days, but he managed to get himself mentally ready to go. I am sure he will be feeling some nerves again, but Murray has to feel he can nullify the Milos Raonic serve and getting into the rallies will give him a big edge in this match.
There won't be any concern facing Raonic in terms of what to expect- Murray will be well aware that Raonic is going to try and dominate behind a big first serve and a heavy forehand to follow that up, but Murray will look to attack the second serve and also try and get most returns and shots into the backhand wing of the Canadian.
Murray will more than expect to win the majority of those rallies that last more than four or five shots and he has been serving well enough to prevent a limited returner from really getting into the match. Any belief that this is going to be an easy day in the office will be put to the back of the mind by remembering how close Raonic came to beating Murray at the Australian Open, but Murray has won all five matches played between them and that should give him the mental edge.
This has been a good week for Raonic, but he hadn't been in the kind of form Murray has brought into the tournament and I think the latter is going to be too good for him on the day. A couple of breaks of serve might be enough for Murray to come through with a 64, 64 win and I like the British player to become the World Number 1 on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 16-10, + 10.76 Units (52 Units Staked, + 20.69% Yield)
Friday, 4 November 2016
Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 4th)
The ATP World Tour Finals will begin a week on Sunday and we now have a seventh name who will be playing in London after Marin Cilic beat David Goffin to earn his place for the second time in his career.
One place is left as we head into the Quarter Finals in Paris, while the final two Semi Finalists at the WTA Elite Trophy will also be decided on Friday. While it won't be as busy a day as we have had over the last few days with the matches scheduled, it will be a day with plenty of big tennis matches to be played before we get to the final couple of days of the 2016 season for most players on the Tour.
The race to finish as World Number 1 also continues on Friday with both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray making their way through to the Quarter Finals. Two more wins will also mean Djokovic keeps that position going into the World Tour Finals, while Murray will be hoping Djokovic is perhaps upset in this Round and that will give him a chance to take over if he can go on and win the title here.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: These two are Fed Cup team-mates but Petra Kvitova and Barbora Strycova will try and put that to the back of the mind as they play for a Semi Final spot at the WTA Elite Trophy. Both players have beaten Roberta Vinci in this Group so the winner is going to move through to the next Round which will be played on Saturday.
Kvitova and Strycova have been named in a strong Czech Republic team that will be contesting the Fed Cup Final against France next weekend. I don't think either player will be looking that far ahead and instead will be focused on playing one another, although Strycova needs to find a way to challenge Kvitova who has won six of their previous seven matches.
Their last match was a tight one in Doha, but that had more to do with Kvitova not taking her chances on the break points compared with Strycova who was very efficient. Generally this has been a match up that Kvitova has enjoyed having a significant edge when it comes to the power off the ground and her serve is also a much bigger weapon which can make all the difference in matches like this one.
The higher Ranked Czech player also loves playing in Asia and ended the regular season in solid form which she took into crushing Vinci in her first match in the Group. Kvitova has been playing well enough to think she will have a break more in each set in this one and that can see her come through with a 64, 63 win to make it through to the Semi Final.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Caroline Garcia is another player who will be competing in the Fed Cup Final next weekend, but for now she is trying to build some confidence on the Singles Tour as she pushes for a place in the Semi Final at the WTA Elite Trophy. She has to beat Johanna Konta to do that after both players were comfortable winners over Sam Stosur.
It hadn't been the best end to 2016 for Garcia prior to that win over Stosur and she will know that she needs to serve at her best if she is going to beat Konta to reach the Semi Final. The British player has been able to really put her aggressive style to good use and I think she is going to be the better one on the court as she is also getting more out of her own serve.
The motivation at the WTA Elite Trophy has to be very high as Konta looks to underline how good her 2016 has been and she doesn't have the same fluctuations in form as Garcia does within a match. While I do think there will be moments where Garcia plays the tennis that saw her tipped to reach the World Number 1 Ranking, I also think there will be others when she starts committing too many errors as the Konta pressure breaks her down.
That could easily see Garcia drop a set by a couple of breaks of serve difference and might just lead to a 63, 63 kind of win for Johanna Konta who can move into the Semi Final.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: Marin Cilic beat David Goffin and confirmed his place in the ATP World Tour Finals which means 2016 is going to end in very strong fashion for the former US Open Champion. Playing in London will be followed by the Davis Cup Final and Marin Cilic might be in a position to add a couple of big trophies to that US Open he won in 2014.
Cilic can't just be happy to get to London but surely wants to head to that tournament by winning his second Masters event of the season having done that in Cincinnati in the summer. However that means snapping a 14 match losing run to Novak Djokovic who looks highly motivated to retain his World Number 1 spot for another week.
Motivation is one thing, but Djokovic's execution has mainly been very good although there are still signs he is not completely happy with his serve. He dropped the first set to Grigor Dimitrov who also had chances in the second set, but the Bulgarian slipped away in a manner that the in-form Cilic is less likely to do.
However it is the second long week in a row for the Basel Champion which is a concern, although Cilic won't have forgotten his humiliation at the hands of Djokovic in the 2015 US Open as the defending Champion. Unfortunately that was the way matches between these players have gone more often than not and I am going to back Djokovic to find a way to a 63, 64 win if Cilic is serving as erratically as he did against David Goffin on Thursday.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The head to head between Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych is 'only' 9-6 in favour of Murray, but the last five matches have been dominated by the World Number 2 since Dani Vallverdu decided to offer Berdych some advice. The relationship between Berdych and Vallverdu has concluded, but Murray's dominance of recent matches continues and I can only see one winner in this Quarter Final.
It isn't easy to dismiss the chances of a regular name in the top ten of the World Rankings, but Berdych has not been in the greatest form of late and he has lost the last 12 sets played against Murray. Add in the fact that he hasn't won more than three games in any of the last 7 sets and you begin to worry about his chances in this one.
I do think he may have a couple of big chances in this one to break serve and remain competitive as Murray has not been firing at his best this week. He has played a lot of tennis of late and that has to wear down on a player from a mental and physical perspective, but Berdych has also not been as convincing behind serve as he usually is.
A player like Murray is going to get plenty of the big first serves not only back in play, but back in play in awkward positions which begins the rally from scratch and I would expect him to win plenty of those. Murray had an easy day in the office on Thursday which should have allowed him to keep some of the energy required in store for this one and I think he is going to come through with a relatively straight-forward 63, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The head to head between Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych is 'only' 9-6 in favour of Murray, but the last five matches have been dominated by the World Number 2 since Dani Vallverdu decided to offer Berdych some advice. The relationship between Berdych and Vallverdu has concluded, but Murray's dominance of recent matches continues and I can only see one winner in this Quarter Final.
It isn't easy to dismiss the chances of a regular name in the top ten of the World Rankings, but Berdych has not been in the greatest form of late and he has lost the last 12 sets played against Murray. Add in the fact that he hasn't won more than three games in any of the last 7 sets and you begin to worry about his chances in this one.
I do think he may have a couple of big chances in this one to break serve and remain competitive as Murray has not been firing at his best this week. He has played a lot of tennis of late and that has to wear down on a player from a mental and physical perspective, but Berdych has also not been as convincing behind serve as he usually is.
A player like Murray is going to get plenty of the big first serves not only back in play, but back in play in awkward positions which begins the rally from scratch and I would expect him to win plenty of those. Murray had an easy day in the office on Thursday which should have allowed him to keep some of the energy required in store for this one and I think he is going to come through with a relatively straight-forward 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-8, + 10.94 Units (44 Units Staked, + 24.86% Yield)
Thursday, 3 November 2016
Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 3rd)
Last Wednesday has been the worst day I've had picking tennis matches for weeks, but I have to say the turn around since then has been very encouraging.
It has come full circle with the Wednesday picks from this week completely different to last week at the same time. Back then the picks went 1-6 on a difficult day, but yesterday it was a 6-1 record which has produced a lot of positive numbers and put this week in a very strong position.
I want to push on from Wednesday and make sure this week finishes with more positive results before the week away from the tennis picks before the ATP World Tour Finals begin.
There are some important matches to be played on Thursday as the WTA Elite Trophy starts moving towards the Semi Finals, while the Paris Masters has a few big matches that could determine which players can make it through to the World Tour Finals. Dominic Thiem's early exit means the door has been opened for players to make the top eight and the key match of the day might be Marin Cilic taking on David Goffin with those players currently in Number 8 and Number 10 in the Race for London.
Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga might feel they've been given opportunities by the early loss for Thiem and so Thursday should be a very interesting day for the players involved.
The race for the World Number 1 position will also continue after Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray came through awkward Second Round matches. The Murray match in particularly was surprising considering how Fernando Verdasco has been finishing his 2016 season, but he did get through and it is Djokovic who has the more difficult match on paper in the Third Round.
However it is Djokovic who gets to go on court first, although I don't think that is a big issue, and the current World Number 1 has admitted he is not thinking about Murray but worrying about making sure his own 'A' game is being taken to the court.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Elena Vesnina: After winning her opening match in the Group, Elina Svitolina can book her place in the Semi Final by beating Elena Vesnina. The Russian does come into the match having had the confidence boosted by winning the Doubles title at the WTA Finals in Singapore last week, but her Singles performances have not really been up to that standard in the latter part of 2016.
Vesnina has lost every match she has played since the US Open on the Singles side of things and a couple of the three losses have come in one sided fashion. Playing in the WTA Elite Trophy tournament should give her motivation to end 2016 on a high, but she is coming up against a player who might have been in the best form of anyone entering this tournament.
After taking some time to settle in, Svitolina proved to be too strong for Kiki Bertens in her first match and my only concern in ever backing her to cover these wide number of games has to be the inconsistent play from set to set. There are times when I really struggle to know how Svitolina has come as high as she has in the World Rankings, but others when I think she should be a comfortable top ten player.
It was Vesnina who won the first two matches between these players, but Svitolina crushed her in New Haven and I think she will be more comfortable with a match under her belt here. I do think Vesnina can be a solid Singles player, but Svitolina is in the better form on the Singles court and I like her to find her way to a 63, 64 win.
David Goffin + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: This is an absolutely huge match for both David Goffin and Marin Cilic when it comes to fighting for the places at the World Tour Finals in London. A win for Cilic would actually be enough, if my maths are correct, to move ahead of Dominic Thiem and also knock out a main rival for the top eight places which would mean a place in the World Tour Finals.
That is a bit of pressure on Cilic's shoulders whereas David Goffin knows he needs to go very deep into the tournament in Paris to have a chance of making it into the top eight rather than as an alternate. The Belgian player had a solid win in the Second Round, but he will have to raise his game even more when he takes on Cilic, although Goffin holds the mental edge having won all three previous matches against Cilic in 2016.
It is similar to the way Kei Nishikori can give Cilic some problems, although the Croatian is in very strong form and won the title in Basel by crushing Nishikori who he had under constant pressure with his aggressive return of serve. Cilic is certainly capable of crushing the Goffin serve if the latter is serving as poorly as he was on Wednesday, but fatigue could be an issue after the long week in Basel.
This has all the makings of a real fight between these players and I would be surprised if Cilic is as easy a winner as the layers seem to think. I have been impressed with how Cilic has performed the last few weeks, but he was beaten in Tokyo by Goffin who made life awkward enough by getting plenty of first serves back in play. The head to head can't be ignored with the matches all coming in 2016 and each time it is the factor of Goffin getting the Cilic first serve back which has been so important for his success.
Taking a set will make it difficult for Cilic to cover this number, but there is every chance Goffin can win outright again and I will take the games on offer.
Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: I might be a fool opposing the World Number 1 for the second time in consecutive days, especially as backing Gilles Muller with the games was the only pick I got wrong on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic has been speaking with more confidence than I have heard for some time and he is clearly motivated or irked by the suggestions Andy Murray could take over the Number 1 mantle at the end of the week.
The first set against Muller was impressive from Djokovic who only lost one point against the serve in legitimate ways (the other two points came from double faults), but the second set saw Muller get closer. I remain convinced that Djokovic is not all that confident behind the serve and I do think the second serve is a concern for him, while Grigor Dimitrov looks to have his chances dismissed too easily.
2016 has been difficult for Dimitrov but he has shown improvement over the last three months and I definitely think he is on the right path back up the World Rankings. I don't think he will ever fulfil the 'Baby Fed' moniker he was given but Dimitrov is capable of hanging with the best players on the Tour and should be relishing the chance to take on a Djokovic who hasn't played a lot of tennis recently.
Since Dimitrov was humiliated at the US Open in a heavy loss to Andy Murray he has played Murray, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. While he has lost two of those big matches, Dimitrov would have covered with this number of games each time which suggests he is being competitive and Dimitrov has the quality to hurt Djokovic if the latter has lost faith in the second serve's ability.
The bigger problem for Dimitrov might be holding onto his own serve, but another odds against quote with a fair few games on the board is hard to ignore for me.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Both Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ended up as Runners Up in Basel and Vienna respectively last week, but both seem to have rounded into some nice form to close out 2016. The wins they have earned on Wednesday looked in impressive fashion and that makes this a very good Third Round match for those who will be watching.
It is Nishikori who has gotten the better of Tsonga in previous matches including a really dominating win over the Frenchman at the Australian Open. However these courts might suit the Tsonga game a little more with the heavier serve and big forehand likely to find some penetration on a court which is still on the faster side of the Tour.
Tsonga has plenty of motivation this week as he tries for one last ditch attempt to make it to the World Tour Finals, especially in light of Dominic Thiem potentially being another player who has to withdraw from the event in London. That can be coupled with the court they are playing on as to give Tsonga a chance for the upset win here, although Nishikori's movement and ability to rally into the backhand is part of the reason he has been able to get the better of this opponent in the past.
Nishikori also holds two wins over Tsonga at the Paris Masters, but both have been incredibly close matches that have needed final set deciders. Those matches were played in 2013 and 2014 and while Nishikori is improved, I think Tsonga might show a little more fight to turn things in his favour and I will back the underdog with the games.
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Gilles Simon: There are some head to head match ups that surprise you when you see which player is winning- one of the ones that always comes to mind is the way Fabrice Santoro used to baffle Marat Safin and ended with a 7-2 head to head against him. While not to the same level of dominance, Gilles Simon having a 7-5 record over Tomas Berdych has to be considered a surprise.
You would think Berdych would be able to overpower Simon, but the Frenchman has to be one of the most irritating defenders on the Tour with an insane ability to make hundreds of balls without seemingly tiring. Someone like Berdych wants to hit out and having to make that many shots sees him break down and eventually make too many mistakes.
Berdych will have to serve a lot better than he did on Tuesday, but that day off could be crucial as Simon was battling in the evening on Wednesday. We know Berdych will have chances to break serve with even an average returning day, but he didn't play well in the win over Joao Sousa for long periods and that has to be a concern for him.
I think Berdych is better than he showed on Tuesday and having more time to recover than Simon could be critical as the Czech player tries to extend his run of reaching the World Tour Finals. This will be a battle as it always in when Simon is playing but I can see Berdych getting the better of him over three sets and coming through with a 63, 46, 76 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: There is plenty of motivation for Andy Murray heading into this tournament, but you cannot ignore the huge amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks to get into a position to earn the World Number 1 Ranking. Murray was pushed to the limit by Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round on Wednesday, but you can see how strong he is still feeling by coming through against an opponent who was playing close to his best tennis.
Murray will be battling the fans and Lucas Pouille on Thursday in the Third Round but this has been a good match up for him and I expect the same in Paris when they meet. For all of the improvement made by Pouille over the course of 2016 to finish in the top 20 of the World Rankings, I still think the Frenchman is trying to find the consistency in his game to take the next step forward.
He has particular trouble against Andy Murray in their two previous matches this season and the most games Pouille has won in a set is three games, although that only happened once in four sets competed. The problem for Pouille is that he is not going to get a lot of cheap points from Murray and has some difficulty penetrating the Brit's defences.
That forces Pouille to go closer and closer to the lines and ends up with some errors in his games that only helps Murray keep control of the match. With Murray's serve working effectively enough, it is no surprise he has been able to dominate the rallies and Murray has broken the Pouille serve four times in both matches. Doing that here should give him every chance to win this one 64, 62 and I will back Murray to cover the games.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: This is the second time in consecutive weeks that John Isner and Jan-Lennard Struff are playing one another on the Tour and I backed Isner to win and cover last week. This week he is being asked to cover a game less than last week which isn't a surprise when you consider how close Struff came to beating the American in Vienna.
However I think it might be a difficult spot for Struff to get over the hump this time because of the emotional win he had on Wednesday evening over Stan Wawrinka. That match came late into the Paris evening and Struff had to come from a set down to win two tough tiebreakers and that has to have taken something from the tank.
His problem remains avoiding the sloppy service games that can cost him sets and matches and I think that will be an issue here. Struff might have some joy from the Isner serve because the latter is not serving up to his standards and having seen this shot at first hand just a week ago, but I think it will be difficult to break the serve with his limited return game.
Backing up a first win over a top ten opponent is going to be tough for Struff and I think Isner is able to get the better of him again and I will back him to win this one 76, 64 nd move into the Quarter Final in Paris.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-5, + 8.54 Units (30 Units Staked, + 28.47% Yield)
It has come full circle with the Wednesday picks from this week completely different to last week at the same time. Back then the picks went 1-6 on a difficult day, but yesterday it was a 6-1 record which has produced a lot of positive numbers and put this week in a very strong position.
I want to push on from Wednesday and make sure this week finishes with more positive results before the week away from the tennis picks before the ATP World Tour Finals begin.
There are some important matches to be played on Thursday as the WTA Elite Trophy starts moving towards the Semi Finals, while the Paris Masters has a few big matches that could determine which players can make it through to the World Tour Finals. Dominic Thiem's early exit means the door has been opened for players to make the top eight and the key match of the day might be Marin Cilic taking on David Goffin with those players currently in Number 8 and Number 10 in the Race for London.
Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga might feel they've been given opportunities by the early loss for Thiem and so Thursday should be a very interesting day for the players involved.
The race for the World Number 1 position will also continue after Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray came through awkward Second Round matches. The Murray match in particularly was surprising considering how Fernando Verdasco has been finishing his 2016 season, but he did get through and it is Djokovic who has the more difficult match on paper in the Third Round.
However it is Djokovic who gets to go on court first, although I don't think that is a big issue, and the current World Number 1 has admitted he is not thinking about Murray but worrying about making sure his own 'A' game is being taken to the court.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Elena Vesnina: After winning her opening match in the Group, Elina Svitolina can book her place in the Semi Final by beating Elena Vesnina. The Russian does come into the match having had the confidence boosted by winning the Doubles title at the WTA Finals in Singapore last week, but her Singles performances have not really been up to that standard in the latter part of 2016.
Vesnina has lost every match she has played since the US Open on the Singles side of things and a couple of the three losses have come in one sided fashion. Playing in the WTA Elite Trophy tournament should give her motivation to end 2016 on a high, but she is coming up against a player who might have been in the best form of anyone entering this tournament.
After taking some time to settle in, Svitolina proved to be too strong for Kiki Bertens in her first match and my only concern in ever backing her to cover these wide number of games has to be the inconsistent play from set to set. There are times when I really struggle to know how Svitolina has come as high as she has in the World Rankings, but others when I think she should be a comfortable top ten player.
It was Vesnina who won the first two matches between these players, but Svitolina crushed her in New Haven and I think she will be more comfortable with a match under her belt here. I do think Vesnina can be a solid Singles player, but Svitolina is in the better form on the Singles court and I like her to find her way to a 63, 64 win.
David Goffin + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: This is an absolutely huge match for both David Goffin and Marin Cilic when it comes to fighting for the places at the World Tour Finals in London. A win for Cilic would actually be enough, if my maths are correct, to move ahead of Dominic Thiem and also knock out a main rival for the top eight places which would mean a place in the World Tour Finals.
That is a bit of pressure on Cilic's shoulders whereas David Goffin knows he needs to go very deep into the tournament in Paris to have a chance of making it into the top eight rather than as an alternate. The Belgian player had a solid win in the Second Round, but he will have to raise his game even more when he takes on Cilic, although Goffin holds the mental edge having won all three previous matches against Cilic in 2016.
It is similar to the way Kei Nishikori can give Cilic some problems, although the Croatian is in very strong form and won the title in Basel by crushing Nishikori who he had under constant pressure with his aggressive return of serve. Cilic is certainly capable of crushing the Goffin serve if the latter is serving as poorly as he was on Wednesday, but fatigue could be an issue after the long week in Basel.
This has all the makings of a real fight between these players and I would be surprised if Cilic is as easy a winner as the layers seem to think. I have been impressed with how Cilic has performed the last few weeks, but he was beaten in Tokyo by Goffin who made life awkward enough by getting plenty of first serves back in play. The head to head can't be ignored with the matches all coming in 2016 and each time it is the factor of Goffin getting the Cilic first serve back which has been so important for his success.
Taking a set will make it difficult for Cilic to cover this number, but there is every chance Goffin can win outright again and I will take the games on offer.
Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: I might be a fool opposing the World Number 1 for the second time in consecutive days, especially as backing Gilles Muller with the games was the only pick I got wrong on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic has been speaking with more confidence than I have heard for some time and he is clearly motivated or irked by the suggestions Andy Murray could take over the Number 1 mantle at the end of the week.
The first set against Muller was impressive from Djokovic who only lost one point against the serve in legitimate ways (the other two points came from double faults), but the second set saw Muller get closer. I remain convinced that Djokovic is not all that confident behind the serve and I do think the second serve is a concern for him, while Grigor Dimitrov looks to have his chances dismissed too easily.
2016 has been difficult for Dimitrov but he has shown improvement over the last three months and I definitely think he is on the right path back up the World Rankings. I don't think he will ever fulfil the 'Baby Fed' moniker he was given but Dimitrov is capable of hanging with the best players on the Tour and should be relishing the chance to take on a Djokovic who hasn't played a lot of tennis recently.
Since Dimitrov was humiliated at the US Open in a heavy loss to Andy Murray he has played Murray, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. While he has lost two of those big matches, Dimitrov would have covered with this number of games each time which suggests he is being competitive and Dimitrov has the quality to hurt Djokovic if the latter has lost faith in the second serve's ability.
The bigger problem for Dimitrov might be holding onto his own serve, but another odds against quote with a fair few games on the board is hard to ignore for me.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Both Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ended up as Runners Up in Basel and Vienna respectively last week, but both seem to have rounded into some nice form to close out 2016. The wins they have earned on Wednesday looked in impressive fashion and that makes this a very good Third Round match for those who will be watching.
It is Nishikori who has gotten the better of Tsonga in previous matches including a really dominating win over the Frenchman at the Australian Open. However these courts might suit the Tsonga game a little more with the heavier serve and big forehand likely to find some penetration on a court which is still on the faster side of the Tour.
Tsonga has plenty of motivation this week as he tries for one last ditch attempt to make it to the World Tour Finals, especially in light of Dominic Thiem potentially being another player who has to withdraw from the event in London. That can be coupled with the court they are playing on as to give Tsonga a chance for the upset win here, although Nishikori's movement and ability to rally into the backhand is part of the reason he has been able to get the better of this opponent in the past.
Nishikori also holds two wins over Tsonga at the Paris Masters, but both have been incredibly close matches that have needed final set deciders. Those matches were played in 2013 and 2014 and while Nishikori is improved, I think Tsonga might show a little more fight to turn things in his favour and I will back the underdog with the games.
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Gilles Simon: There are some head to head match ups that surprise you when you see which player is winning- one of the ones that always comes to mind is the way Fabrice Santoro used to baffle Marat Safin and ended with a 7-2 head to head against him. While not to the same level of dominance, Gilles Simon having a 7-5 record over Tomas Berdych has to be considered a surprise.
You would think Berdych would be able to overpower Simon, but the Frenchman has to be one of the most irritating defenders on the Tour with an insane ability to make hundreds of balls without seemingly tiring. Someone like Berdych wants to hit out and having to make that many shots sees him break down and eventually make too many mistakes.
Berdych will have to serve a lot better than he did on Tuesday, but that day off could be crucial as Simon was battling in the evening on Wednesday. We know Berdych will have chances to break serve with even an average returning day, but he didn't play well in the win over Joao Sousa for long periods and that has to be a concern for him.
I think Berdych is better than he showed on Tuesday and having more time to recover than Simon could be critical as the Czech player tries to extend his run of reaching the World Tour Finals. This will be a battle as it always in when Simon is playing but I can see Berdych getting the better of him over three sets and coming through with a 63, 46, 76 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: There is plenty of motivation for Andy Murray heading into this tournament, but you cannot ignore the huge amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks to get into a position to earn the World Number 1 Ranking. Murray was pushed to the limit by Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round on Wednesday, but you can see how strong he is still feeling by coming through against an opponent who was playing close to his best tennis.
Murray will be battling the fans and Lucas Pouille on Thursday in the Third Round but this has been a good match up for him and I expect the same in Paris when they meet. For all of the improvement made by Pouille over the course of 2016 to finish in the top 20 of the World Rankings, I still think the Frenchman is trying to find the consistency in his game to take the next step forward.
He has particular trouble against Andy Murray in their two previous matches this season and the most games Pouille has won in a set is three games, although that only happened once in four sets competed. The problem for Pouille is that he is not going to get a lot of cheap points from Murray and has some difficulty penetrating the Brit's defences.
That forces Pouille to go closer and closer to the lines and ends up with some errors in his games that only helps Murray keep control of the match. With Murray's serve working effectively enough, it is no surprise he has been able to dominate the rallies and Murray has broken the Pouille serve four times in both matches. Doing that here should give him every chance to win this one 64, 62 and I will back Murray to cover the games.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: This is the second time in consecutive weeks that John Isner and Jan-Lennard Struff are playing one another on the Tour and I backed Isner to win and cover last week. This week he is being asked to cover a game less than last week which isn't a surprise when you consider how close Struff came to beating the American in Vienna.
However I think it might be a difficult spot for Struff to get over the hump this time because of the emotional win he had on Wednesday evening over Stan Wawrinka. That match came late into the Paris evening and Struff had to come from a set down to win two tough tiebreakers and that has to have taken something from the tank.
His problem remains avoiding the sloppy service games that can cost him sets and matches and I think that will be an issue here. Struff might have some joy from the Isner serve because the latter is not serving up to his standards and having seen this shot at first hand just a week ago, but I think it will be difficult to break the serve with his limited return game.
Backing up a first win over a top ten opponent is going to be tough for Struff and I think Isner is able to get the better of him again and I will back him to win this one 76, 64 nd move into the Quarter Final in Paris.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-5, + 8.54 Units (30 Units Staked, + 28.47% Yield)
Wednesday, 2 November 2016
Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 2nd)
Tomas Berdych escaped with a win on Wednesday to become the first of the players chasing the final spots at the World Tour Finals to make it through to the Third Round. He can have a rest on Wednesday and allow his rivals for those places to battle it out, while both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic get their events underway as they battle it out for the World Number 1 spot in the World Ranking.
The WTA Elite Trophy moves onto the second day as the four Groups begin to take shape too on what is a very busy Wednesday in terms of amount of matches to get through on a full day of action.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Nicolas Mahut: There are four players who are battling for the remaining two spots at the World Tour Finals this week in Paris and David Goffin is the one who needs most help. He is in a good position to at least reach London as an alternate and Goffin may also feel he needs to finish as high as possible with Gael Monfils withdrawing this week from Paris with an injury he wants to rest.
Goffin will need at least two of the players above him to fall early on this week so he won't have been happy seeing Tomas Berdych sneak through to the Third Round, but he can only concentrate on his own matches. Playing a home favourite is always going to be tough, but Nicolas Mahut needs to improve his performance significantly if he is going to beat a player Ranked as highly as Goffin is.
They have met recently on the Tour and Goffin was dominant in the match and Mahut has struggled for form since then. Even his win over Martin Klizan came from a position where Mahut trailed by a set and a break and falling into that kind of hole against Goffin is going to be very much more difficult to recover.
The key for Mahut is getting enough first serves in play to earn cheap points and short balls because his second serve will be attacked by Goffin and the latter is the superior player from the back of the court. Goffin should be playing with plenty of motivation and he can take care of Mahut where Klizan failed and come through with a 63, 75 win.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: This is not the final week of the season for Kei Nishikori who will be playing in the World Tour Finals in London, so there is a question as to how much motivation he has for a big week. Nishikori is coming off a strong week where he reached the Final in Basel and there is a week between the end of the tournament in Paris and the beginning of the World Tour Finals in London so concerns about motivation have perhaps been able to be put to the back of the mind.
Fatigue could potentially be an issue later in the week, but Nishikori has had a few days off and has enjoyed the match up with Troicki having beaten him the last four times they have played. Troicki is an up and down player, but he has had some notable wins on the Tour since the US Open against the likes of Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem.
The problem for Troicki is avoiding the losses that he simply shouldn't be having although he did manage to do that in the First Round here when beating Adrian Mannarino. The serve can be a big weapon, but Nishikori has to feel he can break down the Troicki forehand in the extended rallies and also use his superior movement and consistency to get the Serb moving side to side.
Troicki had a pretty long match on Tuesday and this may play a part in this match too. The courts here have tended to be on the faster side but Nishikori can get enough serves back in play to force errors from his opponent. After some moments where Nishikori will have to serve himself out of bad positions, I can see the Japanese player continuing his dominance over Troicki with a 75, 63 win.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Winning the title in Basel has put Marin Cilic in a position to qualify for the World Tour Finals in London, but he has to back that up this week and keep clear of Tomas Berdych and David Goffin. At this moment Cilic is only 40 points clear of Berdych in the final position in London and Cilic is also trying to build some form to take into the Davis Cup Final in a few weeks ago.
Getting to London will mean overcoming compatriot Ivo Karlovic who is a big obstacle to say the least. The serve makes Karlovic very dangerous and he has had some solid results over the second half of the season which suggests the veteran is showing very little sign of slowing down.
That has a lot to do with his game and the ease in which he can get through matches without the physical effort that other players might have to use. He might need more in this one though as Cilic's wingspan should mean he is able to get a few more balls in play that smaller players are unable to do.
Karlovic's ability to get to the net should mean a few problems for Cilic to get into a lot of the service games and Karlovic was an impressive winner over Cilic at the Canadian Masters this past summer. However Cilic has been able to return better than he did on that occasion and I think there is enough motivation for him to play well here to come away with a 76, 64 win.
Lucas Pouille - 1.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: I backed Lucas Pouille to beat Feliciano Lopez when these players met last week in Vienna and it was a very close match that the Frenchman might feel he should have won. With the home crowd behind him this week, I am backing Pouille to have a little more success at the big moments and get the better of Lopez who has already beaten one Frenchman this week.
They had very similar numbers when they played last week with Lopez having a bit more joy on the ace front, and Pouille having a couple more double faults which seemed to make all the difference. It did look like Pouille had built up the momentum to win that match and had the break points in the final set to do so before coming up just short.
It would be wrong of me to suddenly think Pouille shouldn't be the favourite in this match because of that close loss that could easily have gone his way. He has played with some real quality this season, but it will be important for him to try and take away the big Lopez first serve from what he has learned last week and having the crowd really behind him can give Pouille the motivation to dig in a little deeper.
I won't be surprised if we need three sets to separate the players again, but this time I think Pouille comes away with a 46, 63, 64 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: Losing the Final in Vienna means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will miss out on a place at the World Tour Finals unless a number of withdrawals are made by players above him in the Race for London. Injuries have affected his 2016 season, but Tsonga can get the better of Albert Ramos-Vinolas again having beaten the Spaniard in the Quarter Final in Vienna last week.
Tsonga dominated the first set, but then began to struggle on serve with too many double faults giving Ramos-Vinolas confidence to try and get back into the match. At home Tsonga can play with a loud crowd behind him which is when he really thrives as a player and I think that can help him record a similar margin of victory as he had against him last week.
The problem for Ramos-Vinolas is that Tsonga should be able to get a very solid swing on the return against his first and second serve. There will be times the lefty serve is an issue for Tsonga whose weakest wing is the backhand, but I think the Frenchman can dominate the rallies with his first strike style and put Tsonga in a strong position in the match.
It would be easier for Tsonga if he is serving better than he was in Vienna, but even a similar level should help him come through with a 63, 64 win and a place in the Third Round.
Gilles Muller + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: For the first time since his surprising Semi Final loss in Shanghai, Novak Djokovic is back on the court as he looks to hold onto the World Number 1 Ranking he has had for a couple of years. Djokovic has to reach the Final at least this week if Andy Murray continues his fine form and does the same, but he could have hoped for an easier road into this tournament than the dangerous Gilles Muller.
It has been a solid few weeks for Muller who has reached the Semi Final in Basel and a Quarter Final in Tokyo, but he will need to be at his very best to challenge Djokovic. Two of their three previous matches have been very competitive and I do have to say that this is a Djokovic who might not be at his very best.
He has been speaking about the improvement he is feeling and it looks like Djokovic has been motivated by the fact that Murray has gotten so close to taking the World Number 1 spot. However there are some concerns about the Djokovic serve and whether it is going to be a shot that he can rely upon at big moments and Muller can hit out at times and make a few winners off the return which can help him force a break or two.
Muller has been serving well enough to challenge Djokovic with that shot too and this looks a lot of games to be given to the big serving lefty in this one. At odds against I have to back the games and look for Muller to keep this one competitive even if I am not sure he can actually complete the upset against what sounds like a newly motivated Djokovic.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Samantha Stosur: Even though Johanna Konta just missed out on a place at the WTA Finals, this is going to be remembered as a huge year for the British player as she has marched up the World Rankings. She has been given a berth at the WTA Elite Trophy tournament and Konta will look to underline her successes in 2016 with one more title.
I will admit I am a little concerned with her injury that meant Konta couldn't play in the last couple of tournaments which may have seen her finish in one of the positions to play at the WTA Finals. However she headed to Singapore prior to that tournament beginning and could easily have pulled out of the WTA Elite Trophy which suggest she is ready to compete.
Her match up with Samantha Stosur should be one that Konta can enjoy, especially when the rallies go from backhand to backhand where Konta is clearly stronger. Both have big serves, but Stosur did not end the season in great form and she has lost four matches in a row with the majority of them coming fairly easily.
A new coach is in place, but we might not see the best of that new partnership until 2017 after an off-season where Stosur can get the ideas right in her mind as to how to progress. Some of the losses suffered by the Australian were not very good down the stretch and Konta was playing well enough before her injury to win a match like this one. It might take Konta a little time to get to grips with things here, but she can eventually come through 75, 63 and move into a strong position in her Group.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 0.70 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4.38% Yield)
The WTA Elite Trophy moves onto the second day as the four Groups begin to take shape too on what is a very busy Wednesday in terms of amount of matches to get through on a full day of action.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Nicolas Mahut: There are four players who are battling for the remaining two spots at the World Tour Finals this week in Paris and David Goffin is the one who needs most help. He is in a good position to at least reach London as an alternate and Goffin may also feel he needs to finish as high as possible with Gael Monfils withdrawing this week from Paris with an injury he wants to rest.
Goffin will need at least two of the players above him to fall early on this week so he won't have been happy seeing Tomas Berdych sneak through to the Third Round, but he can only concentrate on his own matches. Playing a home favourite is always going to be tough, but Nicolas Mahut needs to improve his performance significantly if he is going to beat a player Ranked as highly as Goffin is.
They have met recently on the Tour and Goffin was dominant in the match and Mahut has struggled for form since then. Even his win over Martin Klizan came from a position where Mahut trailed by a set and a break and falling into that kind of hole against Goffin is going to be very much more difficult to recover.
The key for Mahut is getting enough first serves in play to earn cheap points and short balls because his second serve will be attacked by Goffin and the latter is the superior player from the back of the court. Goffin should be playing with plenty of motivation and he can take care of Mahut where Klizan failed and come through with a 63, 75 win.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: This is not the final week of the season for Kei Nishikori who will be playing in the World Tour Finals in London, so there is a question as to how much motivation he has for a big week. Nishikori is coming off a strong week where he reached the Final in Basel and there is a week between the end of the tournament in Paris and the beginning of the World Tour Finals in London so concerns about motivation have perhaps been able to be put to the back of the mind.
Fatigue could potentially be an issue later in the week, but Nishikori has had a few days off and has enjoyed the match up with Troicki having beaten him the last four times they have played. Troicki is an up and down player, but he has had some notable wins on the Tour since the US Open against the likes of Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem.
The problem for Troicki is avoiding the losses that he simply shouldn't be having although he did manage to do that in the First Round here when beating Adrian Mannarino. The serve can be a big weapon, but Nishikori has to feel he can break down the Troicki forehand in the extended rallies and also use his superior movement and consistency to get the Serb moving side to side.
Troicki had a pretty long match on Tuesday and this may play a part in this match too. The courts here have tended to be on the faster side but Nishikori can get enough serves back in play to force errors from his opponent. After some moments where Nishikori will have to serve himself out of bad positions, I can see the Japanese player continuing his dominance over Troicki with a 75, 63 win.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Winning the title in Basel has put Marin Cilic in a position to qualify for the World Tour Finals in London, but he has to back that up this week and keep clear of Tomas Berdych and David Goffin. At this moment Cilic is only 40 points clear of Berdych in the final position in London and Cilic is also trying to build some form to take into the Davis Cup Final in a few weeks ago.
Getting to London will mean overcoming compatriot Ivo Karlovic who is a big obstacle to say the least. The serve makes Karlovic very dangerous and he has had some solid results over the second half of the season which suggests the veteran is showing very little sign of slowing down.
That has a lot to do with his game and the ease in which he can get through matches without the physical effort that other players might have to use. He might need more in this one though as Cilic's wingspan should mean he is able to get a few more balls in play that smaller players are unable to do.
Karlovic's ability to get to the net should mean a few problems for Cilic to get into a lot of the service games and Karlovic was an impressive winner over Cilic at the Canadian Masters this past summer. However Cilic has been able to return better than he did on that occasion and I think there is enough motivation for him to play well here to come away with a 76, 64 win.
Lucas Pouille - 1.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: I backed Lucas Pouille to beat Feliciano Lopez when these players met last week in Vienna and it was a very close match that the Frenchman might feel he should have won. With the home crowd behind him this week, I am backing Pouille to have a little more success at the big moments and get the better of Lopez who has already beaten one Frenchman this week.
They had very similar numbers when they played last week with Lopez having a bit more joy on the ace front, and Pouille having a couple more double faults which seemed to make all the difference. It did look like Pouille had built up the momentum to win that match and had the break points in the final set to do so before coming up just short.
It would be wrong of me to suddenly think Pouille shouldn't be the favourite in this match because of that close loss that could easily have gone his way. He has played with some real quality this season, but it will be important for him to try and take away the big Lopez first serve from what he has learned last week and having the crowd really behind him can give Pouille the motivation to dig in a little deeper.
I won't be surprised if we need three sets to separate the players again, but this time I think Pouille comes away with a 46, 63, 64 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: Losing the Final in Vienna means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will miss out on a place at the World Tour Finals unless a number of withdrawals are made by players above him in the Race for London. Injuries have affected his 2016 season, but Tsonga can get the better of Albert Ramos-Vinolas again having beaten the Spaniard in the Quarter Final in Vienna last week.
Tsonga dominated the first set, but then began to struggle on serve with too many double faults giving Ramos-Vinolas confidence to try and get back into the match. At home Tsonga can play with a loud crowd behind him which is when he really thrives as a player and I think that can help him record a similar margin of victory as he had against him last week.
The problem for Ramos-Vinolas is that Tsonga should be able to get a very solid swing on the return against his first and second serve. There will be times the lefty serve is an issue for Tsonga whose weakest wing is the backhand, but I think the Frenchman can dominate the rallies with his first strike style and put Tsonga in a strong position in the match.
It would be easier for Tsonga if he is serving better than he was in Vienna, but even a similar level should help him come through with a 63, 64 win and a place in the Third Round.
Gilles Muller + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: For the first time since his surprising Semi Final loss in Shanghai, Novak Djokovic is back on the court as he looks to hold onto the World Number 1 Ranking he has had for a couple of years. Djokovic has to reach the Final at least this week if Andy Murray continues his fine form and does the same, but he could have hoped for an easier road into this tournament than the dangerous Gilles Muller.
It has been a solid few weeks for Muller who has reached the Semi Final in Basel and a Quarter Final in Tokyo, but he will need to be at his very best to challenge Djokovic. Two of their three previous matches have been very competitive and I do have to say that this is a Djokovic who might not be at his very best.
He has been speaking about the improvement he is feeling and it looks like Djokovic has been motivated by the fact that Murray has gotten so close to taking the World Number 1 spot. However there are some concerns about the Djokovic serve and whether it is going to be a shot that he can rely upon at big moments and Muller can hit out at times and make a few winners off the return which can help him force a break or two.
Muller has been serving well enough to challenge Djokovic with that shot too and this looks a lot of games to be given to the big serving lefty in this one. At odds against I have to back the games and look for Muller to keep this one competitive even if I am not sure he can actually complete the upset against what sounds like a newly motivated Djokovic.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Samantha Stosur: Even though Johanna Konta just missed out on a place at the WTA Finals, this is going to be remembered as a huge year for the British player as she has marched up the World Rankings. She has been given a berth at the WTA Elite Trophy tournament and Konta will look to underline her successes in 2016 with one more title.
I will admit I am a little concerned with her injury that meant Konta couldn't play in the last couple of tournaments which may have seen her finish in one of the positions to play at the WTA Finals. However she headed to Singapore prior to that tournament beginning and could easily have pulled out of the WTA Elite Trophy which suggest she is ready to compete.
Her match up with Samantha Stosur should be one that Konta can enjoy, especially when the rallies go from backhand to backhand where Konta is clearly stronger. Both have big serves, but Stosur did not end the season in great form and she has lost four matches in a row with the majority of them coming fairly easily.
A new coach is in place, but we might not see the best of that new partnership until 2017 after an off-season where Stosur can get the ideas right in her mind as to how to progress. Some of the losses suffered by the Australian were not very good down the stretch and Konta was playing well enough before her injury to win a match like this one. It might take Konta a little time to get to grips with things here, but she can eventually come through 75, 63 and move into a strong position in her Group.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 0.70 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4.38% Yield)
Tuesday, 1 November 2016
Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 1st)
It was interesting listening to the Novak Djokovic interview this week which seemed to suggest that the current World Number 1 might have rediscovered some of the fire and motivation that has been lacking from his game since winning the French Open. I don't know Djokovic, but clearly something in his personal life has thrown things around where perhaps tennis was shown not to be the priority in his life, but I do think he sounds happier than he has in months.
Even when reaching the Final at the US Open there was always this feeling that Djokovic wasn't fully engaged as he has been over the last three seasons. Maybe the threat to his World Number 1 World Ranking to a player that I actually don't think Djokovic has ever felt inferior to has got him refocused as he heads into this big event in Paris where Djokovic needs to reach the Final at least to hold off Andy Murray.
You have to credit Murray for how close he is to reaching the top of the ATP World Rankings, but he has to win the tournament here to move above Novak Djokovic and I am not sure how much will be left in the tank with all the tennis he has played lately. Murray is right to say that the World Rankings are all that matters as to where a player should be Ranked, but I don't think many will accept him as the best player in the world even if he is the Number 1 for a few months.
I think it will be similar to when Andy Roddick became World Number 1 in 2003 for a few weeks but without ever really being considered better than Roger Federer at that time. Even if Novak Djokovic was to lose the World Number 1 Ranking, I expect him to go into the Australian Open as the favourite to win the tournament.
The picks went 1-1 on Monday with one coming back as a void pick when Robin Haase pulled out with an injury. I was a little lucky with Haase not being able to challenge Fernando Verdasco, but hopefully I will have some completed winners on Tuesday.
This is also the day the WTA Elite Trophy tournament gets underway with the four Groups drawn on Monday and the top player in each going through to the Semi Finals which are played later this week.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Kiki Bertens: There are three matches being played at the WTA Elite Trophy event on Tuesday, but the only one I am focused on is the second match due to come out on court. It is hard to know the motivation of the players heading into an event played after the WTA Finals and considering it is only being played for the second time.
Out of the two players in this match, Elina Svitolina has ended 2016 in much stronger form than Kiki Bertens and I do think this plays a big part in this one. I am sure Svitolina wants to get back to producing her best tennis having been targeted with threats and online abuse in her last tournament in Moscow where she reached the Semi Final.
That run came despite not feeling absolutely safe in the Russian capital and I think Svitolina has been playing just about as well as anyone on the Tour in the last six weeks. Compare that with Kiki Bertens who might have reached the Semi Final in Luxembourg, but who had lost seven matches in a row before that and I wonder if she is looking forward to the end of 2016 more than Svitolina who would likely wish this season was extended a few more weeks.
It is a match in which Svitolina is capable of getting enough serves back into play and then look the stronger player in the rallies. The Bertens game has plenty of power, but I don't think her focus is going to be as good as Svitolina's and that should see the Ukrainian player come through with a 63, 64 win.
Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: Last week was a disappointing tournament for Nicolas Mahut as he was beaten in the First Round for the second event in a row. However he is backing playing in his native France this week in Paris and reached the Quarter Final when playing in Metz a few weeks ago.
Mahut will be hoping he can bring that kind of form into the Paris Masters having lost in the First Round in his last two appearances here. The confidence will have to be there that Mahut can win this match when you think Martin Klizan has lost six matches in a row and surely wants to call it a day when it comes to the 2016 season and recharge the batteries over the next few weeks.
The Slovakian did steal a set off of Andy Murray last week which is impressive considering how well Murray has been playing, but Klizan has rarely reached those levels in recent weeks. In fact Klizan is just 2-13 in his last fifteen sets contested on the Tour and for all the solid attributes he has, you can't fix confidence issues and mental issues as quickly as the physical ones.
I think there is a lot to like about the Klizan game and Mahut hasn't exactly been winning a lot of matches. However I think the lack of competitiveness in the recent Klizan performances indicates a player whose motivation or confidence is not in a good place at the moment and I think Mahut comes through with a tough 76, 64 win.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: Over recent seasons Tomas Berdych has become a familiar face in the World Tour Finals, but he needs a big week if he is going to head to London in the main draw and not as an alternate. He had a tenuous hold of the final place at the World Tour Finals until Marin Cilic won the title in Basel and Berdych can't afford another early loss this week in the final open tournament of the season.
Berdych won the title in Shenzhen and reached the Quarter Final in St Petersburg having seen injury prevent him from taking his place in the US Open draw. Those results put Berdych in a strong position to finish in the top eight places, but the Czech player has had three opening match defeats since those tournaments mentioned.
This does look a decent chance for Berdych to snap that run and give himself a chance of playing in London for the seventh year in a row. While I have to respect Joao Sousa for getting as much out of his game as he has, Sousa is also someone who struggles to hold his serve and will have difficulties dealing with the big Berdych serve which gives the latter a real edge in the match.
That has happened in their two previous matches against one another with Berdych winning in dominant fashion. The last two losses have been disappointing for Berdych, but Sousa's own form is sketchy to say the least and I think Berdych can put himself into a position to move into the Third Round behind a 63, 64 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: A lot of Singles players will be chasing the final places at the ATP World Tour Finals in the tournament in Paris, but Pierre-Hugues Herbert will be heading to London to take part in the Doubles tournament. Before that he has come through a couple of Qualifiers to make the main draw of the Singles event in Paris which should keep his World Ranking in a strong enough position for automatic entry into the Australian Open in January.
There is quite a bit to like about Herbert's game on this surface as he has a decent first serve and his Doubles skills means he is very comfortable getting forward to the net. That could help this become something of an 'old school' kind of match with both Herbert and Feliciano Lopez very happy to play some serve-volley tennis to try and pressure the other into making mistakes.
The chip and charge off the second serve is likely to be an effective tool for both players who are going to be in the World Tour Finals Doubles tournament and the player winning the higher percentage second serve points likely wins this match. In that regard you have to favour Lopez who has produced better results as a Singles competitor than Herbert.
The Frenchman will have the home support and won a title on the indoor hard courts at the Challenger level recently as well as having two wins in Paris in the Qualifiers. That will give Herbert confidence for the upset, but I think Lopez will weather the storm and come through a first set tie-breaker before seeing Herbert make a couple of errors on his own service games to lead to a 76, 64 win for the Spaniard.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: He might be up to Number 24 in the World Rankings, but I am still looking for more consistency from Jack Sock to really start proving he can be the face of American men's tennis. Sock has a solid game, but I think he has too many mental lapses at the moment and there are also some concerns about his physical strength when going deep into tournaments.
He does have some solid results since reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open and I definitely think Sock has shown a little more form than Philipp Kohlschreiber in that time. The Jack Sock loss to Marcel Granollers last week is a concern, but I am going to say that had something to do with reaching the Final in Stockholm before that and he should give a much stronger showing against Kohlschreiber.
It has been tough for Kohlschreiber in recent weeks with a lot of surprising losses as the German has recovered from an injury but perhaps not at full confidence closing out the season. Kohlschreiber is 3-4 in his matches since coming back from a withdrawal at the US Open and I think some of the performances have seen him struggle to deal with the consistency needed off the ground.
The Kohlschreiber serve can be dangerous, but he has not been getting enough first serves in play and that is where Sock has to find a way to take advantage. Sock's own serve is decent and I think he will be able to back it up a little more than Kohlschreiber and come through in a tight three set match with a 76, 46, 63 win for the American.
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: It has been a really solid end to the 2016 season for Pablo Carreno Busta who must now have the confidence to know he is more than a clay court specialist. That is what I have thought of the Spaniard so far in his career, but he is beginning to win more matches on the hard courts and taking the title home in Moscow would have boosted the confidence even more.
I still think Carreno Busta struggles to match the very best players on the Tour and I think someone like Milos Raonic is capable of breaking him down a couple of times over the course of a match. That can be critical when you think of Raonic's serve and the difficulty of having to recover a break deficit, although it does have to be said that the the Canadian has had a tough couple of weeks since withdrawing from the tournament in Beijing.
It was another early loss for Raonic in Basel last week as he was upset by Ricardas Berankis and I have to think he is going to be looking for some form to take into the World Tour Finals by producing a strong run here. He should receive plenty of support from the locals having come from Montreal in Canada and that can inspire Raonic here.
I respect the Carreno Busta game and his ability to fight for points and the wins in Winston Salem and Moscow will have boosted his confidence. However Carreno Busta can throw in a couple of really sloppy service games and that is the moment where Raonic can take control of this match and come through with a 76, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Even when reaching the Final at the US Open there was always this feeling that Djokovic wasn't fully engaged as he has been over the last three seasons. Maybe the threat to his World Number 1 World Ranking to a player that I actually don't think Djokovic has ever felt inferior to has got him refocused as he heads into this big event in Paris where Djokovic needs to reach the Final at least to hold off Andy Murray.
You have to credit Murray for how close he is to reaching the top of the ATP World Rankings, but he has to win the tournament here to move above Novak Djokovic and I am not sure how much will be left in the tank with all the tennis he has played lately. Murray is right to say that the World Rankings are all that matters as to where a player should be Ranked, but I don't think many will accept him as the best player in the world even if he is the Number 1 for a few months.
I think it will be similar to when Andy Roddick became World Number 1 in 2003 for a few weeks but without ever really being considered better than Roger Federer at that time. Even if Novak Djokovic was to lose the World Number 1 Ranking, I expect him to go into the Australian Open as the favourite to win the tournament.
The picks went 1-1 on Monday with one coming back as a void pick when Robin Haase pulled out with an injury. I was a little lucky with Haase not being able to challenge Fernando Verdasco, but hopefully I will have some completed winners on Tuesday.
This is also the day the WTA Elite Trophy tournament gets underway with the four Groups drawn on Monday and the top player in each going through to the Semi Finals which are played later this week.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Kiki Bertens: There are three matches being played at the WTA Elite Trophy event on Tuesday, but the only one I am focused on is the second match due to come out on court. It is hard to know the motivation of the players heading into an event played after the WTA Finals and considering it is only being played for the second time.
Out of the two players in this match, Elina Svitolina has ended 2016 in much stronger form than Kiki Bertens and I do think this plays a big part in this one. I am sure Svitolina wants to get back to producing her best tennis having been targeted with threats and online abuse in her last tournament in Moscow where she reached the Semi Final.
That run came despite not feeling absolutely safe in the Russian capital and I think Svitolina has been playing just about as well as anyone on the Tour in the last six weeks. Compare that with Kiki Bertens who might have reached the Semi Final in Luxembourg, but who had lost seven matches in a row before that and I wonder if she is looking forward to the end of 2016 more than Svitolina who would likely wish this season was extended a few more weeks.
It is a match in which Svitolina is capable of getting enough serves back into play and then look the stronger player in the rallies. The Bertens game has plenty of power, but I don't think her focus is going to be as good as Svitolina's and that should see the Ukrainian player come through with a 63, 64 win.
Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: Last week was a disappointing tournament for Nicolas Mahut as he was beaten in the First Round for the second event in a row. However he is backing playing in his native France this week in Paris and reached the Quarter Final when playing in Metz a few weeks ago.
Mahut will be hoping he can bring that kind of form into the Paris Masters having lost in the First Round in his last two appearances here. The confidence will have to be there that Mahut can win this match when you think Martin Klizan has lost six matches in a row and surely wants to call it a day when it comes to the 2016 season and recharge the batteries over the next few weeks.
The Slovakian did steal a set off of Andy Murray last week which is impressive considering how well Murray has been playing, but Klizan has rarely reached those levels in recent weeks. In fact Klizan is just 2-13 in his last fifteen sets contested on the Tour and for all the solid attributes he has, you can't fix confidence issues and mental issues as quickly as the physical ones.
I think there is a lot to like about the Klizan game and Mahut hasn't exactly been winning a lot of matches. However I think the lack of competitiveness in the recent Klizan performances indicates a player whose motivation or confidence is not in a good place at the moment and I think Mahut comes through with a tough 76, 64 win.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: Over recent seasons Tomas Berdych has become a familiar face in the World Tour Finals, but he needs a big week if he is going to head to London in the main draw and not as an alternate. He had a tenuous hold of the final place at the World Tour Finals until Marin Cilic won the title in Basel and Berdych can't afford another early loss this week in the final open tournament of the season.
Berdych won the title in Shenzhen and reached the Quarter Final in St Petersburg having seen injury prevent him from taking his place in the US Open draw. Those results put Berdych in a strong position to finish in the top eight places, but the Czech player has had three opening match defeats since those tournaments mentioned.
This does look a decent chance for Berdych to snap that run and give himself a chance of playing in London for the seventh year in a row. While I have to respect Joao Sousa for getting as much out of his game as he has, Sousa is also someone who struggles to hold his serve and will have difficulties dealing with the big Berdych serve which gives the latter a real edge in the match.
That has happened in their two previous matches against one another with Berdych winning in dominant fashion. The last two losses have been disappointing for Berdych, but Sousa's own form is sketchy to say the least and I think Berdych can put himself into a position to move into the Third Round behind a 63, 64 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: A lot of Singles players will be chasing the final places at the ATP World Tour Finals in the tournament in Paris, but Pierre-Hugues Herbert will be heading to London to take part in the Doubles tournament. Before that he has come through a couple of Qualifiers to make the main draw of the Singles event in Paris which should keep his World Ranking in a strong enough position for automatic entry into the Australian Open in January.
There is quite a bit to like about Herbert's game on this surface as he has a decent first serve and his Doubles skills means he is very comfortable getting forward to the net. That could help this become something of an 'old school' kind of match with both Herbert and Feliciano Lopez very happy to play some serve-volley tennis to try and pressure the other into making mistakes.
The chip and charge off the second serve is likely to be an effective tool for both players who are going to be in the World Tour Finals Doubles tournament and the player winning the higher percentage second serve points likely wins this match. In that regard you have to favour Lopez who has produced better results as a Singles competitor than Herbert.
The Frenchman will have the home support and won a title on the indoor hard courts at the Challenger level recently as well as having two wins in Paris in the Qualifiers. That will give Herbert confidence for the upset, but I think Lopez will weather the storm and come through a first set tie-breaker before seeing Herbert make a couple of errors on his own service games to lead to a 76, 64 win for the Spaniard.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: He might be up to Number 24 in the World Rankings, but I am still looking for more consistency from Jack Sock to really start proving he can be the face of American men's tennis. Sock has a solid game, but I think he has too many mental lapses at the moment and there are also some concerns about his physical strength when going deep into tournaments.
He does have some solid results since reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open and I definitely think Sock has shown a little more form than Philipp Kohlschreiber in that time. The Jack Sock loss to Marcel Granollers last week is a concern, but I am going to say that had something to do with reaching the Final in Stockholm before that and he should give a much stronger showing against Kohlschreiber.
It has been tough for Kohlschreiber in recent weeks with a lot of surprising losses as the German has recovered from an injury but perhaps not at full confidence closing out the season. Kohlschreiber is 3-4 in his matches since coming back from a withdrawal at the US Open and I think some of the performances have seen him struggle to deal with the consistency needed off the ground.
The Kohlschreiber serve can be dangerous, but he has not been getting enough first serves in play and that is where Sock has to find a way to take advantage. Sock's own serve is decent and I think he will be able to back it up a little more than Kohlschreiber and come through in a tight three set match with a 76, 46, 63 win for the American.
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: It has been a really solid end to the 2016 season for Pablo Carreno Busta who must now have the confidence to know he is more than a clay court specialist. That is what I have thought of the Spaniard so far in his career, but he is beginning to win more matches on the hard courts and taking the title home in Moscow would have boosted the confidence even more.
I still think Carreno Busta struggles to match the very best players on the Tour and I think someone like Milos Raonic is capable of breaking him down a couple of times over the course of a match. That can be critical when you think of Raonic's serve and the difficulty of having to recover a break deficit, although it does have to be said that the the Canadian has had a tough couple of weeks since withdrawing from the tournament in Beijing.
It was another early loss for Raonic in Basel last week as he was upset by Ricardas Berankis and I have to think he is going to be looking for some form to take into the World Tour Finals by producing a strong run here. He should receive plenty of support from the locals having come from Montreal in Canada and that can inspire Raonic here.
I respect the Carreno Busta game and his ability to fight for points and the wins in Winston Salem and Moscow will have boosted his confidence. However Carreno Busta can throw in a couple of really sloppy service games and that is the moment where Raonic can take control of this match and come through with a 76, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
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