We have reached the Quarter Finals in the tournaments on the ATP side of the Tour and the Semi Finals in the WTA event in Oeiras as another week of the clay court season draws to a close.
May should be a fascinating month with the three big tournaments that are scheduled for the next few weeks, especially knowing all the big names will be back in action with motivation at a high.
Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: I was interested to see how Tommy Haas reacted to his time away from the court, especially with rumours about a shoulder issue, but he looked good in his comeback match.
Haas beat Alejandro Falla fairly comfortably, but I expect it will be that much tougher against Andreas Seppi who came through his Second Round match far easier than I thought he would. That might have been down to Albert Ramos heading to Madrid earlier for the qualifiers, but it was still a good, solid win for Seppi.
The Italian has a serve that can be vulnerable and Haas is going to have the home support to perhaps get on the front foot in this match.
It will be interesting to see if Haas can produce top tennis in back to back days after his lay off, but he should be good enough in a normal situation and come through 64, 64.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver v Marcel Granollers: I have backed Daniel Gimeno-Traver twice already this week and I think he can be backed, for a small interest, to beat his compatriot Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Portugal.
I believe Gimeno-Traver is the better clay court player of the two and Marcel Granollers had been on a poor run of form which won't have done his confidence a lot of good, although he did have an important win in the Second Round against Albert Montanes.
However, you can't ignore the recent poor form of Granollers and the run of wins that Gimeno-Traver has had to get to this Quarter Final and a small interest in him winning another has to be the call.
Victor Hanescu v Gastao Elias: A home tournament means Gastao Elias has the chance to really pick up some big Ranking points and he has done well to move through to the Quarter Final, but now faces an opponent that is very happy on the clay courts.
With a serve like Hanescu has, I would have expected it to translate onto the faster courts, but it seems he likes getting his feet under him when it comes to groundstroke battles and that comes on the slower clay courts.
Elias mainly plays on the Challenger circuit and Hanescu has been a regular winner at that level on the clay courts and I can see his serve causing enough problems to pressure the home player.
If Hanescu is serving well, Elias may push too much on his own serve with the pressure of trying to keep up on the scoreboard and I like the Romanian to eventually come through.
MY PICKS: Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniel Gimeno-Traver @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Victor Hanescu @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.1 Units (16 Units Staked, - 6.88% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Oeiras Picks. Show all posts
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Friday, 2 May 2014
Thursday, 1 May 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (May 1st)
The tournaments in Munich and Oeiras are both continuing this week and we have already seen a fair share of surprise results in both the men's and women's events that are taking place.
As I have said a couple of times already this week, players are perhaps already looking ahead to the Masters/Premier Event being held in Madrid next week and a number of those in the draws will be heading across for qualifiers.
Albert Ramos v Andreas Seppi: One of the players that could potentially have to go through the qualifiers in Madrid is Albert Ramos, but I still believe he is going to prove to be a little too good for Andreas Seppi in this Second Round match in Munich.
The clay courts are the favoured surface for Ramos and he has given Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov tough matches on the surface over the last couple of weeks and he won't be intimidated by what Seppi brings to the court.
It has been a poor eighteen months for Seppi who is slipping in the Rankings and he hasn't had much respite on the clay courts in that time either. This season has seen the Italian lose some matches that he shouldn't have and Ramos is good enough to take advantage, even if he has to wait until the match goes the distance before he gets through.
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: He is currently Ranked as the World Number 44, but this period of the season could see Federico Delbonis break into the World Top 32 if he can continue the form he has shown on the red dirt.
By far and away the clay courts are the favoured surface for Delbonis, but he is now at a much higher level than twelve months ago which means all the points he accumulates should push him up the Rankings. I expect he is going to get the better of Thomaz Bellucci for the fourth straight time in the professional ranks, despite a good solid four wins in a row to reach the Second Round for the Brazilian.
Bellucci is another who prefers the clay courts, although injury has curtailed a career that looked like he could translate his game onto the hard courts too.
However, it has been a stop-start year for Bellucci and he may be wondering about Madrid and qualifying for that Masters event which could derail his chances of winning this match and I like the Argentinian to win this South American derby 76, 64.
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Andrey Golubev: Andrey Golubev recorded a win in the First Round, but he has not had the most success on the clay courts at the main Tour level over the last few years and I think Leonardo Mayer will have too much knowledge of the surface in the Second Round.
I do think there is more in the Golubev locker as he has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but the consistency can be tough for him and that is really highlighted on the clay courts where you have to show the patience to win matches.
Leonardo Mayer snapped a run of six straight losses by winning four matches here and he should have the momentum to move into the Quarter Final, although the spectre of the Madrid Masters is a concern.
The first set will likely be tight, but Mayer should be able to come through with a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.06 Units (10 Units Staked, + 10.6% Yield)
As I have said a couple of times already this week, players are perhaps already looking ahead to the Masters/Premier Event being held in Madrid next week and a number of those in the draws will be heading across for qualifiers.
Albert Ramos v Andreas Seppi: One of the players that could potentially have to go through the qualifiers in Madrid is Albert Ramos, but I still believe he is going to prove to be a little too good for Andreas Seppi in this Second Round match in Munich.
The clay courts are the favoured surface for Ramos and he has given Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov tough matches on the surface over the last couple of weeks and he won't be intimidated by what Seppi brings to the court.
It has been a poor eighteen months for Seppi who is slipping in the Rankings and he hasn't had much respite on the clay courts in that time either. This season has seen the Italian lose some matches that he shouldn't have and Ramos is good enough to take advantage, even if he has to wait until the match goes the distance before he gets through.
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: He is currently Ranked as the World Number 44, but this period of the season could see Federico Delbonis break into the World Top 32 if he can continue the form he has shown on the red dirt.
By far and away the clay courts are the favoured surface for Delbonis, but he is now at a much higher level than twelve months ago which means all the points he accumulates should push him up the Rankings. I expect he is going to get the better of Thomaz Bellucci for the fourth straight time in the professional ranks, despite a good solid four wins in a row to reach the Second Round for the Brazilian.
Bellucci is another who prefers the clay courts, although injury has curtailed a career that looked like he could translate his game onto the hard courts too.
However, it has been a stop-start year for Bellucci and he may be wondering about Madrid and qualifying for that Masters event which could derail his chances of winning this match and I like the Argentinian to win this South American derby 76, 64.
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Andrey Golubev: Andrey Golubev recorded a win in the First Round, but he has not had the most success on the clay courts at the main Tour level over the last few years and I think Leonardo Mayer will have too much knowledge of the surface in the Second Round.
I do think there is more in the Golubev locker as he has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but the consistency can be tough for him and that is really highlighted on the clay courts where you have to show the patience to win matches.
Leonardo Mayer snapped a run of six straight losses by winning four matches here and he should have the momentum to move into the Quarter Final, although the spectre of the Madrid Masters is a concern.
The first set will likely be tight, but Mayer should be able to come through with a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.06 Units (10 Units Staked, + 10.6% Yield)
Wednesday, 30 April 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (April 30th)
Santiago Giraldo decided to pull out of the tournament this week, but that didn't stop the picks from having a positive start to the week. However, I am trying to keep as close a eye as possible on the motivation of players that may be thinking of heading to Madrid earlier in the hope of qualifying for the tournament there.
Motivation is always a factor that needs to be considered when making picks on a daily basis, especially on the tennis courts where a player even at 10% lower than his/her normal level would be defeated fairly comfortably.
In all honesty, the next two weeks are far more important in terms of Ranking points, but that mostly applies to the players that are already qualified for the big events. For others, these weeks are the good times to try and pick up a title, but it can be a minefield trying to determine who is interested in doing what.
That has also shown up in the number of seeds that have already lost in both tournaments before the middle of the week with players perhaps already looking ahead to the big month of May.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 3.5 games v Rui Machado: I mentioned yesterday that I am not a big fan of backing Daniel Gimeno-Traver to cover too many spreads simply because of the weakness of the serve, but he came through his First Round with so much confidence that I am going back to the well one more time this week.
His opponent, Rui Machado, had it even easier with a double bagel of Dmitry Tursunov, but I don't think he will be given such an easy day in the office this time.
Firstly, the Spaniard is very happy on the clay courts compared with someone like Tursunov and Gimeno-Traver has been playing at a higher level than Machado over the last couple of years. The home support will help Machado, but replicating the performance from yesterday may be too much to ask and I like Gimeno-Traver to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: I wouldn't associate the clay courts with Kaia Kanepi usually, but she has actually done pretty well on the surface over the last couple of years including winning a title and reaching the Semi Final here in 2013.
I am expecting her to be too strong for the qualifier from Romania despite the relative success that Irina-Camelia Begu has had on the clay courts.
Winning matches does breed confidence, even if the titles have come on the level below the main WTA Tour, but that won't matter to Begu who will feel she can't lose. However, she has generally found herself coming up short against the better players once she hits the higher level and Kanepi is definitely capable of proving too good.
It might be a little closer than I originally imagined simply because of all the wins Begu has had this season, but Kanepi to come through 75, 63 is my call.
MY PICKS: Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.4 Units (6 Units Staked, + 23.33% Yield)
Motivation is always a factor that needs to be considered when making picks on a daily basis, especially on the tennis courts where a player even at 10% lower than his/her normal level would be defeated fairly comfortably.
In all honesty, the next two weeks are far more important in terms of Ranking points, but that mostly applies to the players that are already qualified for the big events. For others, these weeks are the good times to try and pick up a title, but it can be a minefield trying to determine who is interested in doing what.
That has also shown up in the number of seeds that have already lost in both tournaments before the middle of the week with players perhaps already looking ahead to the big month of May.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 3.5 games v Rui Machado: I mentioned yesterday that I am not a big fan of backing Daniel Gimeno-Traver to cover too many spreads simply because of the weakness of the serve, but he came through his First Round with so much confidence that I am going back to the well one more time this week.
His opponent, Rui Machado, had it even easier with a double bagel of Dmitry Tursunov, but I don't think he will be given such an easy day in the office this time.
Firstly, the Spaniard is very happy on the clay courts compared with someone like Tursunov and Gimeno-Traver has been playing at a higher level than Machado over the last couple of years. The home support will help Machado, but replicating the performance from yesterday may be too much to ask and I like Gimeno-Traver to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 games v Irina-Camelia Begu: I wouldn't associate the clay courts with Kaia Kanepi usually, but she has actually done pretty well on the surface over the last couple of years including winning a title and reaching the Semi Final here in 2013.
I am expecting her to be too strong for the qualifier from Romania despite the relative success that Irina-Camelia Begu has had on the clay courts.
Winning matches does breed confidence, even if the titles have come on the level below the main WTA Tour, but that won't matter to Begu who will feel she can't lose. However, she has generally found herself coming up short against the better players once she hits the higher level and Kanepi is definitely capable of proving too good.
It might be a little closer than I originally imagined simply because of all the wins Begu has had this season, but Kanepi to come through 75, 63 is my call.
MY PICKS: Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.4 Units (6 Units Staked, + 23.33% Yield)
Tuesday, 29 April 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (April 29th)
This has usually been the time of the season where Rafael Nadal racks up the points that helps him sit high in the World Rankings, but there have been a couple of upsets before the big month of May.
With two Masters in Madrid and Rome, and also the Grand Slam event at Roland Garros, Nadal's position as a strong favourite must have loosened with his defeats over the last couple of weeks. The defeat to David Ferrer was disappointing, but you could chalk that up to a bad day in the office, but then being defeated by Nicolas Almagro in Barcelona was a huge shock.
Nadal may have reached the Final in Miami and won a tournament during the South American Golden Swing in February, but I don't think it is too far fetched to think he hasn't been the same since his back injury cost him the Australian Open Final.
Of course it is too early to consider Nadal anything but the favourite to win the next three clay court tournaments, but the draw is going to be that much more important as he may be vulnerable to a surprise result.
If that is the case, who is the most likely player to take advantage of that and win the next Grand Slam tournament? In past years, Novak Djokovic looked the most likely and perhaps should have won the event last season, but his wrist injury has to be a concern for his backers.
Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka are likely next in the market leaders and both Swiss players will feel they can perhaps add to their own Grand Slam successes after contesting the Final in Monte Carlo. Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray both are vulnerable on the clay courts, while David Ferrer has to grind through too many matches to think he could beat two or three of the big names to win his maiden Grand Slam title.
The one thing the Nadal losses have done is make the French Open as intriguing as it has been for a number of years in terms of contenders for the title there.
There are a couple of tournaments being played this week but there was too much uncertainty for me to make outright picks when I am not comfortable that every player has the right motivation. In Portugal, the top two seeds, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic, should go close, but both have lost silly matches on the clay courts and I couldn't trust either.
In Munich, Tommy Haas was one of the leading contenders, but there are doubts about his right shoulder, while other players might be focusing on having to play the qualifiers for the Masters tournament in Madrid next week.
Let's face facts- the next month is the important time for most of the top players on the Tour with the two Masters events back to back and then a short rest before the French Open begins. Therefore, this week may see some more strange results as has been the case during the clay court season to this point.
Feliciano Lopez v Jan-Lennard Struff: Feliciano Lopez has not had the best start to his clay court season with a retirement and an early surprising loss to his name and he could have his hands full against Jan-Lennard Struff who had to come through qualifiers.
That should give Struff confidence in front of a crowd that will offer him plenty of support, but he hasn't really progresses on the Tour as he may have expected, although he certainly has the tools to win as the underdog in this First Round match.
However, I believe Lopez can put some pressure on the German if he is serving well and he does seem to use the scoreboard to build the pressure to the point that Struff could end up snapping.
The concern comes from the recent Lopez form and the retirement, but I think he is being given a generous price to win this one.
Thomaz Bellucci v Ivan Dodig: Another qualifier in Munich will play his First Round match on Tuesday, but this time I am backing Thomaz Bellucci to find a win against Ivan Dodig.
The clay courts are definitely favoured more by Bellucci than the are by Dodig whose serve and attacking the net game are better suited to the faster surfaces.
It has been a fall from the upper reaches of the men's game for Bellucci who has suffered from a loss of form and injuries, but coming through three qualifiers should inspire him to look for more from the tournament.
Bellucci is expected to be in the qualifiers for the Madrid Masters next week which is a distraction, but he has the better clay court pedigree of these two players and I expect he can find a win in the match, even if it takes three sets.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 2.5 games v Alejandro Gonzalez: Daniel Gimeno-Traver is at his most comfortable on the clay courts, but he is not normally a player that I would like backing as his serve can be a real weakness. I especially don't like backing him as a favourite because of that initial issue, but he has won three qualifiers here and I expect that to give the Spaniard the confidence to beat Alejandro Gonzalez.
Gonzalez hasn't played since Houston and he hasn't really been able to take the form he has shown in the level below the main ATP Tour into tournaments like this.
However, he will also have some confidence in facing a player like Gimeno-Traver who is at the level that Gonzalez would see more often. The problem is that I still think there is too much experience and clay court nous and that will help Gimeno-Traver come through with a 75, 64 win.
Santiago Giraldo v Albert Montanes: I will never forget the way Santiago Giraldo announced himself at the main Tour level with a crushing of Juan Carlos Ferrero a few years ago, but he has never really hit those heights since.
However, Giraldo may point to a couple of strong tournaments over the last three weeks to show the confidence he is in and I like his chances to beat Albert Montanes as long as last week in Barcelona hasn't taken too much out of the Colombian.
Giraldo reached the Final last week before finding Kei Nishikori far too strong, but Montanes is not as good as the Japanese star and I expect it could be a tough day for him. Montanes has had a few surprising results, but the veteran is wearing down and he has struggled against Giraldo.
They have met five times previously and it is the Colombian who has won four times, including twice earlier this season. That includes a win on the clay courts and I am surprised he has been picked as the underdog in this one unless Barcelona has taken its toll. Still, I have to back him at odds against to beat the veteran and move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Picks Final: 4-4, + 0.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 36.11 Units (561 Units Staked, + 6.44% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
With two Masters in Madrid and Rome, and also the Grand Slam event at Roland Garros, Nadal's position as a strong favourite must have loosened with his defeats over the last couple of weeks. The defeat to David Ferrer was disappointing, but you could chalk that up to a bad day in the office, but then being defeated by Nicolas Almagro in Barcelona was a huge shock.
Nadal may have reached the Final in Miami and won a tournament during the South American Golden Swing in February, but I don't think it is too far fetched to think he hasn't been the same since his back injury cost him the Australian Open Final.
Of course it is too early to consider Nadal anything but the favourite to win the next three clay court tournaments, but the draw is going to be that much more important as he may be vulnerable to a surprise result.
If that is the case, who is the most likely player to take advantage of that and win the next Grand Slam tournament? In past years, Novak Djokovic looked the most likely and perhaps should have won the event last season, but his wrist injury has to be a concern for his backers.
Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka are likely next in the market leaders and both Swiss players will feel they can perhaps add to their own Grand Slam successes after contesting the Final in Monte Carlo. Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray both are vulnerable on the clay courts, while David Ferrer has to grind through too many matches to think he could beat two or three of the big names to win his maiden Grand Slam title.
The one thing the Nadal losses have done is make the French Open as intriguing as it has been for a number of years in terms of contenders for the title there.
There are a couple of tournaments being played this week but there was too much uncertainty for me to make outright picks when I am not comfortable that every player has the right motivation. In Portugal, the top two seeds, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic, should go close, but both have lost silly matches on the clay courts and I couldn't trust either.
In Munich, Tommy Haas was one of the leading contenders, but there are doubts about his right shoulder, while other players might be focusing on having to play the qualifiers for the Masters tournament in Madrid next week.
Let's face facts- the next month is the important time for most of the top players on the Tour with the two Masters events back to back and then a short rest before the French Open begins. Therefore, this week may see some more strange results as has been the case during the clay court season to this point.
Feliciano Lopez v Jan-Lennard Struff: Feliciano Lopez has not had the best start to his clay court season with a retirement and an early surprising loss to his name and he could have his hands full against Jan-Lennard Struff who had to come through qualifiers.
That should give Struff confidence in front of a crowd that will offer him plenty of support, but he hasn't really progresses on the Tour as he may have expected, although he certainly has the tools to win as the underdog in this First Round match.
However, I believe Lopez can put some pressure on the German if he is serving well and he does seem to use the scoreboard to build the pressure to the point that Struff could end up snapping.
The concern comes from the recent Lopez form and the retirement, but I think he is being given a generous price to win this one.
Thomaz Bellucci v Ivan Dodig: Another qualifier in Munich will play his First Round match on Tuesday, but this time I am backing Thomaz Bellucci to find a win against Ivan Dodig.
The clay courts are definitely favoured more by Bellucci than the are by Dodig whose serve and attacking the net game are better suited to the faster surfaces.
It has been a fall from the upper reaches of the men's game for Bellucci who has suffered from a loss of form and injuries, but coming through three qualifiers should inspire him to look for more from the tournament.
Bellucci is expected to be in the qualifiers for the Madrid Masters next week which is a distraction, but he has the better clay court pedigree of these two players and I expect he can find a win in the match, even if it takes three sets.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 2.5 games v Alejandro Gonzalez: Daniel Gimeno-Traver is at his most comfortable on the clay courts, but he is not normally a player that I would like backing as his serve can be a real weakness. I especially don't like backing him as a favourite because of that initial issue, but he has won three qualifiers here and I expect that to give the Spaniard the confidence to beat Alejandro Gonzalez.
Gonzalez hasn't played since Houston and he hasn't really been able to take the form he has shown in the level below the main ATP Tour into tournaments like this.
However, he will also have some confidence in facing a player like Gimeno-Traver who is at the level that Gonzalez would see more often. The problem is that I still think there is too much experience and clay court nous and that will help Gimeno-Traver come through with a 75, 64 win.
Santiago Giraldo v Albert Montanes: I will never forget the way Santiago Giraldo announced himself at the main Tour level with a crushing of Juan Carlos Ferrero a few years ago, but he has never really hit those heights since.
However, Giraldo may point to a couple of strong tournaments over the last three weeks to show the confidence he is in and I like his chances to beat Albert Montanes as long as last week in Barcelona hasn't taken too much out of the Colombian.
Giraldo reached the Final last week before finding Kei Nishikori far too strong, but Montanes is not as good as the Japanese star and I expect it could be a tough day for him. Montanes has had a few surprising results, but the veteran is wearing down and he has struggled against Giraldo.
They have met five times previously and it is the Colombian who has won four times, including twice earlier this season. That includes a win on the clay courts and I am surprised he has been picked as the underdog in this one unless Barcelona has taken its toll. Still, I have to back him at odds against to beat the veteran and move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Picks Final: 4-4, + 0.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 36.11 Units (561 Units Staked, + 6.44% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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