Weekend Football Thoughts 2015 (October 24-25)

Another domestic weekend is in the books and there have been many stories coming out of the games that were played this weekend. With ten fixtures been played by each team, the Premier League table is beginning to take shape and there has to be some real concerns developing at some clubs while others are perhaps looking forward to what could be the most memorable of seasons.

Tim Sherwood Unfortunate but Relegation is Too Costly for Aston Villa

Tim Sherwood has overseen a really poor run of form for Aston Villa, but I still think he deserved a bit more time to try and get things right at the club. However you can't argue against the fact that there are clearly some issues between the manager and the transfer committee of the club which has transferred onto the pitch and left Aston Villa in a disastrous position.

They are far from doomed and that is why I would have given Sherwood a little more time to get things turned around, but the Premier League is about to receive a huge investment in terms of money next season. That has clearly played a part in the decision to sack Tim Sherwood at this stage of the season and it is no surprise that financial matters are being considered by every club in the Premier League.

Is it any wonder that two of the three teams in the bottom three places of the Premier League have made moves in terms of replacing the manager that began the season?

With the money coming into the Premier League, relegation for teams like Aston Villa won't just be an issue in the short-term, but also the long-term and I think a team that has been flirting with relegation for some time will find it very difficult to recover their place in the top flight. The squad hasn't been given the kind of experience that Sherwood had been demanding in the summer and that also adds to the sense of misfortune in him being sacked at this stage.

Aston Villa don't look very good and it will take some real work from the new manager being appointed to get them out of a difficult spot. It is a shame Sherwood hasn't been given the opportunity to push the team on after helping them avoid relegation at the end of last season, but money talks as they say and Aston Villa can't afford to miss out on the big financial pay outs expected in the Premier League next year.

Where do Aston Villa go? I'd pick someone who has experience of managing in the Premier League and perhaps they are a little gutted they didn't move for someone like Sam Allardyce before he took the Sunderland job. It isn't the most attractive of jobs though with their transfer structure likely to put some off, while others might not feel they can get the best out of a squad that looks limited.

It's going to be a big call whichever direction Aston Villa take and one that might be crucial to the future of the club and their long-term prospects of being a Premier League club and not joining the likes of Leeds United and Nottingham Forest as 'sleeping giants' in the Championship.

Are Chelsea's Top Four Ambitions Now Under Threat?

That was a fantastic image captured from the West Ham United win over Chelsea this weekend and the question about The Blues defending the title they won last season looks to be answered.

I can't see how they get back into the title race being eleven points behind after only ten games played and I don't care that there are eighty-four points still to play for.

The bigger fear for Chelsea is doubts that might begin to crop up surrounding their place in the top four as they continue to lurch from one disastrous result to another. They have no momentum and every time it looks like Chelsea have taken a step in the right direction they end up taking two steps backwards.

Jose Mourinho is definitely under some huge pressure with reports that he will be sacked if Chelsea fail to beat Liverpool next week in the Premier League, while the League Cup game at Stoke City has taken on a whole new level of importance. I wouldn't begin to think of the direction that Chelsea would take if they do dispense of Mourinho mid-season, but perhaps someone like Guus Hiddink would be willing to come in and complete the season for Chelsea.

Something is certainly not right at Stamford Bridge and it looks like they haven't made half the investments that Jose Mourinho wanted this summer to keep the Champions moving forward. It is beginning to look more and more doubtful that Mourinho will finish the season though and Chelsea could have to face the same issues as Manchester United after David Moyes in needing someone to come in and have a huge investment to refresh this squad of players that have some ageing issues throughout.

Are Arsenal Ready to Challenge for the Premier League Title?

With Chelsea struggling mightily and Manchester City yet to have a full season with a clear bill of health, Arsenal might just feel they have their best chance in years to end the long wait for the Premier League title. This is a team at their peak in terms of confidence and another win at the weekend has kept the momentum behind them.

I have been a pretty harsh critic of Arsene Wenger in the past, but I was impressed with the tactical set up of the team to beat Bayern Munich and he really has the team playing well after some early season stumbles.

Results this weekend mean Arsenal are only behind Manchester City thanks to an inferior goal difference, but the next two weeks can tell us all we need to know about their title credentials. A trip to Swansea City followed by a home game against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League are two tough tests for Arsenal and made a little more difficult knowing they have a big game against Bayern Munich in the Champions League in between those fixtures.

I'd make Arsenal a pretty strong favourite to win both of those League games though, but I still think there is a vulnerable side to the team that would see them drop points in previous years. So winning those games would make me sit up and really think Arsenal could stay the course if they can maintain health.

Keeping Mesut Ozil performing at his current level will be difficult too, but the German international is a top player who might just have found his groove in the Premier League. Alexis Sanchez, Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud give Arsenal enough goals and Gabriel looks a solid partner to Laurent Koscielny at the back.

Petr Cech made some big saves again and highlighted his importance to the club and Arsenal could be flying before they play Manchester City in December. The Gunners meet Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Brom, Norwich City, Sunderland and Aston Villa before the clash with Manchester City and picking up 16 points from a possible 18 might have them going into that game as the team on top of the Premier League.

One of the North East Premier League Teams will be Relegated

Both Sunderland and Newcastle United are in a big trouble when it comes to potentially being relegated this season from the Premier League and I would be more than a little surprised if both managed to escape the bottom three again.

Last season I was convinced one or both were going to be relegated going into the final couple of months of the season, but they found enough form to get out of trouble at just the right time.

I saw the highlights of Sunderland's win over Newcastle United this weekend and I think both teams will have a very difficult time getting out of trouble this season. Out of the two I definitely think Newcastle United have more quality in the ranks that will see them find a way, but Sunderland's luck may have run out.

I do actually rate Sam Allardyce as a manager and the 3-0 win over Newcastle United will give his players a boost in confidence and while the November games are difficult, they do also give Sunderland a chance to pick up some vital points. However, I can't ignore the lack of quality that is in the squad and the fact they were outplayed up until Newcastle United had Fabriccio Coloccini sent off at the end of the first half.

One of these teams will be relegated in my book and I would still think Sunderland are most in danger of being that team if only one was to go down and that despite the 3-0 derby win.

Wayne Rooney Has to be Taken Out of the Firing Line

Louis Van Gaal might be fed up with answering questions about Wayne Rooney's form, or lack of form I should say, but the fans are also getting a little tired of what are sub-standard performances from the captain.

I'll never be a fan of Wayne Rooney myself, but I'm not foolish enough to say that he did give Manchester United some pace and power and was a threat for them through the years.

Did... Past tense.

The pace and power have diminished significantly from the player he was in 2008, which isn't a surprise considering he has hit 30, but the rest of the game is quickly following suit. The first touch is outrageously bad and was the cause of a number of attacks falling apart in the Manchester derby, while even the much vaunted passing, mostly from members of the media, was pretty disastrous too.

He isn't a Number 9 though is he? That's the latest from the media, but then again he hasn't been a Number 8, Number 10, Number 11 either despite members of that profession regularly pointing out he isn't in his best position. However, they then will point to the other four positions as he is best before changing their mind again and the situation seems simple to me.

Wayne Rooney has to be taken out of the starting eleven and allowed to try and rediscover some form and confidence which is clearly lacking at the moment.

For the life of me I am not sure why Louis Van Gaal has moved Anthony Martial out from the Number 9 position... Martial has everything Rooney doesn't and that's the kind of skills that would scare almost every centre half in the world. He has pace, fast feet that can see him beat a man and comfortable holding up the ball as well as making runs over the top of defences that might want to press up the pitch.

Martial would have been all that Rooney wasn't and challenged both Vincent Kompany and Nicolas Otamendi on Sunday, but instead they had a pretty easy afternoon.

Wayne Rooney is unlikely to play his part against Middlesbrough in the Capital One Cup, but Louis Van Gaal has a big decision to make in whether his captain is going to be allowed to continue to get away with his poor performances. I think it has been going on for too long already and maybe the return of Ashley Young from injury to play on the left and moving Martial to his favoured position will spark that change being made.

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (October 24-25)

Back to the Premier League this week after another inconsistent week for the English teams taking part in the two European competitions. We have reached the halfway mark in the Group Stage and that is a decent time to have a look at the fortunes of the teams so far and the prospects of qualification to the Knock Out Stage which begins after Christmas.


The team most in danger in the Champions League remain Arsenal despite a fantastic win over Bayern Munich during the week. Unfortunately they would have hoped Olympiacos were not winners on the same night, although the victory over Bayern Munich has given Arsenal a shot in the arm.

Manchester United and Chelsea both earned away draws in Eastern Europe which will make them both feel they can win their two remaining home games and move into the Second Round, while a late goal for Manchester City puts them in a very strong position in a tough Group.

The British clubs all had a really poor time in the Europa League as a strong Liverpool team failed to beat ten man Rubin Kazan at Anfield and Tottenham Hotspur lost in Anderlecht. A defeat for Celtic in Malmo means all three of those teams are going to have to do some serious work in their remaining three games to make it through to the Last 32 in that competition.


I put together a few thoughts from the last weekend Premier League football which can be read here.


Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: They say the ten game mark in the Premier League is when we really begin to get a good indication of where a team stands and we will reach that mark at the end of this round of fixtures. So how many would have predicted a match between Leicester City and Crystal Palace would involve TWO teams in the top six of the Premier League table?

Both Claudio Ranieri and Alan Pardew deserve all the credit that comes their way in the early part of the season and both Leicester City and Crystal Palace will most certainly be looking for a top half finish or better. While Crystal Palace were expected to be clear of the relegation battle, Leicester City's form has really surprised many.

In Jamie Vardy they arguably have the striker in the best form in the Premier League, but it is the character and the 'never say die' attitude that has allowed them to build up some real momentum. You can't expect them to continue coming back from 2-0 down, but Leicester City have shown it is far from a fluke having achieved that three times in their first nine League games.

I am expecting an entertaining game with the players that are going to be out on the pitch- Leicester City have showed an attacking enterprise all season, but the soft underbelly makes them excellent viewing for the neutrals too. I do think Ranieri will ask his team to play the way they have been and expect Leicester City on the front foot, but that will make Crystal Palace more dangerous with the counter attacking ability they have.

The last two Crystal Palace away games have not featured too many goals, but Leicester City games continue to do that and I expect them to make this a real football match. I don't think there is any real need to move away from the profitable way of backing any Leicester City match and that is expecting goals in this game, although the layers have begun to cotton onto the fact that Claudio Ranieri is not a 'typical Italian manager' who may overly concern himself with defensive formations.

Picking a winner isn't easy, but Crystal Palace might have some joy away from home although a 2-1 scoreline either way wouldn't be a huge surprise.


Stoke City v Watford Pick: Give credit to Stoke City for sticking with Mark Hughes' principles and turning around their form to start moving up the Premier League table. Quique Sanchez Flores will be hoping that the Watford board take note of that and his squad continue to play to his own principles as they bid to end a poor run of form.

In all honesty, Watford have been more dangerous away from home when they can play a counter-attacking style much more comfortably than they can at Vicarage Road. There is pace in the Watford team and they have saved their goals for their away games in the Premier League so have to be considered a real threat.

However, Stoke City have also turned their form around and 4 consecutive wins will give them plenty of confidence too. They should really have won their last couple of games at the Brittania Stadium, but nerves haven't helped before the late winner over Bournemouth.

They can now play with a little more freedom and belief at home and there are plenty of match winners in the home squad. Defensively they have looked better of late with three clean sheets in their last four games and I do think they will have just enough quality in the final third to produce a couple of goals which may be what they need to secure the three points.

The odds on quote is just about generous enough for me to back Stoke City to make it five in a row in all competitions and win this one narrowly.


West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: This has been a tough season for Jose Mourinho and it isn't going to get much easier for him over the coming weeks beginning with this extremely difficult looking match at Upton Park. Chelsea earned a solid goalless draw at Dynamo Kiev during the week to put them in a decent position in their Champions League Group, but West Ham United have been flying this season and become accustomed to upsetting the big name teams in the Premier League.

The Hammers have already beaten Manchester City, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Liverpool this season, although all of those results have been away from home. It will be interesting to see if they can play the same counter attacking style at home as they have on their travels, especially as Chelsea may look to set up in a similar way.

That potentially makes this a very stand offish kind of match as both teams are perhaps willing to play without the ball and look to counter quickly on the break. However goals haven't been a problem when these two teams have played at home/away respectively this season and both have looked vulnerable defensively.

Chelsea may look at the last week and point to the two clean sheets earned against Aston Villa and Dynamo Kiev as a sign their defensive shape is coming back to form. They had a sequence like that earlier this season but Chelsea then conceded eight goals in their next four games so I'd need to see more of the same to believe things have turned around.

And it also has to be pointed out that Chelsea should have their own success going forward against a team that has conceded eight goals in four home games this season. West Ham United haven't kept too many clean sheets through the course of the season and this has been a fixture that has previously produced plenty of goals.

I am expecting both teams to feel each other out for the early stages, but eventually the goals should come and I think both hit the back of the net in this one in what will eventually be a game that produces at least three goals.


Arsenal v Everton Pick: There were a couple of things I took away from the Arsenal win over Bayern Munich in relation to the home team: the first was how organised they were defensively and the pace they displayed on the counter attack; the second was how much the surprising omission of Petr Cech in the first two Champions League games have hurt them.

This will be a different game for Arsenal as they will be expected to be on the front foot much more than on Tuesday, while it will be Arsenal who will dominate the ball. Any lingering tiredness should be out of the system by the time this game kicks off even though Arsenal did a lot of hard work off the ball on Tuesday and this is a team with a whole host of momentum behind them.

Alexis Sanchez is in great form in the Premier League, but the likes of Mesut Ozil and Santi Cazorla are pulling the strings magnificently and it will be a big test for Everton to keep Arsenal from running away with this one.

Everton are unbeaten away from home which will give them some belief, but they had to come from behind to beat Reading and West Brom in their last two games and looked poor in the latter up until they pulled a goal back. If West Brom had held their 2-0 lead for even five minutes I would have expected them to win that match and Everton can't afford to spot Arsenal such a lead this weekend.

This is a great chance for Arsenal to move to the top of the Premier League and it would be a big surprise to me if they allowed that to slip ahead of the Manchester derby. Confidence is in a very good place for Arsenal and I think they will break down Everton and end up securing a win by at least two goals.


Sunderland v Newcastle United Pick: Derby games tend to be strange affairs and that might be highlighted by the Tyne-Wear derby considering Newcastle United have been a better team than Sunderland in recent years but have surprisingly lost 5 in a row against them.

This is Sam Allardyce's first game in charge at The Stadium of Light against a team he has formerly managed and I have to say Sunderland did look better defensively last week than they have all season. That was with limited time with his players having seen an international break ahead of the game and I think Allardyce will make sure Sunderland are hard to beat this week too.

I like what Steve McClaren is trying to do at Newcastle United and I think the results have been a little difficult as he gets those ideas across to players who are not all familiar with the Premier League. There are still some mental weaknesses in the side that can rear their head when the going gets tough as displayed at Manchester City recently, but the win last week is a huge confidence boost.

I am expecting a tight game on Sunday in the first of three live games being shown and the early start can play havoc with players who are trying to get the sleep out of their eyes. However, the clocks are turned back on Saturday evening so I don't think that will be a big concern this weekend in what will essentially feel like a 1pm kick off.

A tight, tense contest has to be expected as the players try and push on for their fans, but I can't ignore Sunderland's recent dominance of the fixture. They were unfortunate not to beat West Ham United in their last home game and showed better defensive organisation in another unfortunate loss at West Brom last weekend.

I do think Newcastle United have more goals in the side, but I also think Sunderland will rally and a high profile game might also see a sending off- Aleksander Mitrovic would be a prime contender for any red card too!

It's only worth a small interest with this being a derby game and Sunderland still trying to adjust to a new manager, but they have raised their game for the fixture with Newcastle United in the last couple of years and I will back them to win narrowly this weekend.


Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: The Manchester derby is once again taking centre stage in the Premier League as two of the top three in the League table meet at Old Trafford. The injuries to Sergio Aguero and David Silva means Manchester City are missing two of their most important players, if not THE most important players, and I think that does give Manchester United the advantage.

That is potentially balanced out by the fact that Manchester United were playing in Moscow on Wednesday night and don't have the same recovery time as Manchester City who were at home on the same night, but there can't be any excuses from the players.

It does have the makings of a very entertaining game as Manchester City are always likely to try and bring the game to their opponents, while Manchester United have been strong at home. This is a great chance for Manchester United to lay down a marker for the season knowing both Silva and Aguero are missing, but they can't under-estimate a Manchester City team that still has plenty of quality to call upon.

Louis Van Gaal doesn't strike me as someone who will lose his meticulous planning because a couple of his opponent's players are absent so I expect Manchester United to really put together a strong game plan. Aside from that defeat at Arsenal earlier this month, Van Gaal has produced a strong tactically plan in big games for Manchester United and there is enough in the home squad to win the game.

However, I can't help think Manchester City still have some real match winners out on the pitch and their 2-1 win over Sevilla will be a huge boost in confidence without their top two players. Kevin De Bruyne has fitted in wonderfully, while Yaya Toure and Raheem Sterling offer power and pace respectively.

The game has all the ingredients of being a really entertaining one and the Manchester derby has rarely failed to ignite in recent seasons when it comes to goal-scoring chances. Eight of the last ten games has seen at least three goals shared out, while the games at Old Trafford tend to be more high-scoring.

That might be down to the fact that Manchester City will look to attack no matter the venue, while Manchester United have perhaps been set up to be a little more containing in games at The Etihad Stadium. At Old Trafford the last seven games between Manchester United and Manchester City have produced at least three goals.

Five of the last six Manchester United games here have had at least three goals, while the last three Manchester City away games have also hit that number. Both teams will give the other chances in this one and it might take some inspired stuff from David De Gea and Joe Hart from keeping this game from reaching the three goal threshold.

I favour the offensive players though in this one as the likes of Juan Mata, Wayne Rooney, Anthony Martial, Yaya Toure, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling and Wilfried Bony can all produce the goals. Backing at least three goals in another entertaining Manchester derby at Old Trafford looks the angle in this one.


Liverpool v Southampton Pick: The Jurgen Klopp era has begun with two draws for Liverpool which might be seen as a bit of an anticlimax considering all of the hoopla that came with his appointment. Liverpool couldn't break down ten man Rubin Kazan on Thursday and it can be difficult to return to Premier League football just days later, especially when facing a team with the pace that Southampton have in the forward areas.

The 1-3 win at Chelsea is the standout result of the Southampton season, but I can't ignore the fact that three of their four away games have ended in draws. Four straight Liverpool games have also seen the each team take a share of the spoils and I do think the home team are incredibly short to win the game considering their creativity problems.

That might be a bit harsh because Liverpool certainly had their chances against Rubin Kazan and the return of Daniel Sturridge is only going to boost their chances to take those. On the other hand those chances were created against ten men and Southampton have looked much more solid than the Russians did.

I do think there is a real chance that Southampton can go on and win this game if they get their tactics as right as they did at Stamford Bridge. That also means taking the chances that come their way, but previous away games Southampton have not been as convincing in the final third and a draw here would be seen as a good result.

A small interest on Southampton taking a point from this game looks worth backing in the final Premier League game of the weekend.

MY PICKS: Leicester City-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
West Ham United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Gaols @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Southampton Draw @ 3.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)

October Update: 12-17, - 7.04 Units (53.50 Units Staked, - 13.16% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)