New Year's Day Football Picks 2015 (January 1st)

Time doesn't stop for anyone, but I can't be the only person that has seen the 2014 calendar year zip right past faster than the click of your fingers.

Just like that, I am writing a small post in preparation for the New Year's Day Premier League games where there is a full round of games ahead of the FA Cup Third Round 'weekend'. I put that in inverted commas simply because the Third Round has been spread from Friday through to Tuesday which takes away something from one of the most popular weekends of the domestic season.


January has four rounds of League fixtures in England, while the top European Leagues return to action too. The rest of the month sees the first domestic Cup Final of the season set up once the two legged League Cup Semi Finals are completed, while the FA Cup will have reached the Fifth Round by the end of the month.

Usually this is the slowest month of the season after the Christmas holidays, but there is plenty of top football to look forward to with the importance of games increasing on a week by week basis.


Stoke City v Manchester United Pick: 2014 ended in a much more positive manner for Manchester United than it started and the confidence in the side has improved markedly in that time. The fans are feeling like 2015 is going to be a much better season now that David Moyes is no longer in charge and they have every chance of getting the New Year off to the perfect start with a victory at Stoke City.

However, it is going to be more than a little test at the Brittania Stadium considering Stoke City's recent form which has seen them only lose against Chelsea over the last month. Back to back wins over Everton and West Brom will have built some confidence and this ground is regularly a tough one to visit.

This season has been a different story though with 4 out of 9 visitors to Stoke leaving with the three points and Manchester United have certainly created enough chances in recent games to think they can do the same. United will need to be much more clinical then they were at Tottenham Hotspur when they could have had as many as three goals by half time with a little more fortune and composure when the chances came their way.

It is hard to imagine Robin Van Persie, Radamel Falcao, Juan Mata and Wayne Rooney having another off day in front of goal, although the defence is still a concern even with injuries beginning to clear up. While Manchester United should create problems for a Stoke City team that has conceded twice in games against Arsenal and Chelsea at the Brittania Stadium in recent games, I also think Stoke are going to have some joy with balls into the box for the likes of Peter Crouch.

The goals might not have come at White Hart Lane, but Manchester United games have generally seen them going in and I expect that to return to the fore on Thursday. Stoke City have both scored and conceded plenty of goals in recent games at the Brittania Stadium and I wouldn't be surprised if both teams hit the net in this one and neither is likely to sit back and settle for a draw.


Liverpool v Leicester City Pick: The decision to move Raheem Sterling up front and allow the likes of Adam Lallana and Philippe Coutinho to play behind him has sparked something from Liverpool and they produced their best performance of the season at Anfield on Monday Night Football. Dismissing Swansea as comfortably as they did should give Liverpool some confidence and they are only 5 points off a Champions League place despite a very inconsistent season.

Facing Leicester City at Anfield should give Liverpool a real chance of making it three wins in a row and that kind of momentum that was sparked by the side at the beginning of the 2014 calendar year. With Daniel Sturridge still on the road back to fitness, Brendan Rodgers will believe his side are capable of putting together a string of wins that can lead to another tilt at the Champions League and the manager would expect to win this game.

Leicester City did beat Hull City on Sunday to end a long wait for a win and also end a long losing run away from home, but Liverpool will be a different test than the goal-shy Hull side. Nigel Pearson's men have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 8 away games and they might find it hard to stay with the clever movement that Liverpool can produce up front.

Any similarities to the performance produced against Swansea should see Liverpool too strong for Leicester in this game, even with one less day of rest between games than their visitors. Over the last few weeks, Liverpool have really begun to create chances in their games and they should have those in this game too against a defence that has conceded plenty of goals on their travels.

If they show the same level of clinical finishing and up-tempo attacking play as they did on Monday night, Liverpool should win this by a couple of goals at least.


Queens Park Rangers v Swansea Pick: It was a disappointing goalless draw that Queens Park Rangers had to settle for in their last game at home against Crystal Palace, but I think they can bounce back in this game if Swansea are as poor defensively as they were in their loss at Liverpool.

Harry Redknapp has got the best out of his QPR side at Loftus Road and games like this, even though Swansea are in the top half of the Premier League table, are very important for Rangers to win if they want to avoid the drop. They have been very good at home all season and have caused problems for many of their visitors over the last couple of months and they have an attacking threat that will give Swansea issues to deal with.

However, I have to have a respect for the likes of Wilfried Bony, Gylfi Sigurdsson and the way Garry Monk has his team earning results this season. On the other hand, Swansea are not as good on their travels as they have been at the Liberty Stadium and they don't look the right favourite in this game.

Swansea have lost 5 of their 9 away games in the Premier League and I think QPR are a big price to put another notch in the loss column for them in this game. I'll keep stakes small though after Rangers lost some momentum at home with the draw against Palace on Sunday, but the home price is still too hard to ignore.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: This is a big game for both Ronald Koeman and Arsene Wenger as they look to get their sides in a position to challenge for the top four in the second half of the season. Arsenal have been there, done that regularly over the last twenty years and that experience is likely to prove critical down the stretch, especially if Southampton continue to struggle against the best teams in the Premier League.

Southampton have failed to beat Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea at St Mary's this season and even the draw with the current leaders of the Premier League was a touch fortunate. The players had to put in a huge effort in that game, especially in the second half, and I do wonder if Southampton will have enough time to be fully ready for this game on New Year's Day.

There is pace up front that will cause Arsenal some problems, but Southampton have to find a way to be a little more clinical against the best teams and also to try and dictate the tempo in these games. To be fair to Koeman, Southampton have played well against teams outside of the top two and were unfortunate to lose at the Emirates Stadium as well as the home game against Manchester United.

A similar performance to the one they produced against Manchester United will give Southampton a real chance of earning a surprise win in this one, although they will also have trouble coping with the strength of the Arsenal attack. Laurent Koscielny's return to the Arsenal defence will help their cause, but this looks another game that should produce goals at both ends.

The last 4 Arsenal away games have all produced at least three goals, while Southampton had seen 3 in a row also do the same before the 1-1 draw with Chelsea which had enough chances for another goal. The over 2.5 goals option is at odds against and I do think that looks a little big in this game.


West Ham United v West Brom Pick: I don't think there was any surprise when West Brom announced that they had parted ways with Alan Irvine as the side continues to slide down the Premier League table. Most seem to suggest that Irvine is a really nice man and a decent Coach, but that isn't enough to become a strong manager in a tough environment like the Premier League, although he could have learned from his experiences.

For now, West Brom will head to Upton Park without a leader at the helm and it will say a lot about these players as to how much desire they show in the face of things going wrong. West Brom have struggled for goals and this looks a very tough game for them to pick themselves up after losing 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League.

While the side did cause some problems for Stoke City, it was the lack of composure up front that cost West Brom the chance to get anything from that game and they might be under more pressure here.

West Ham United might have had their confidence dented by their two League defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal, but they had enough chances in the latter game against the Gunners to believe they can get back to winning ways. The side have played some attractive football and can put a lot of pressure on a team like West Brom that might not be up for the battle in a tough venue.

If West Ham can put recent defeats to the back of their mind, they should prove to be too strong for West Brom and can score the goals to grab the three points. If the home side score twice, I think it will be too much for West Brom to get a result in this one and I will back West Ham to win the game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: If you had hit the pause button just before some of the chances that were going to be created at White Hart Lane on Sunday, I am pretty sure most would have expected to see the net bulge soon after the shot/header had been taken. There must have been some huge forcefield in front of both goals during the Tottenham Hotspur game with Manchester United that prevented that ending up being a high-scoring game, but the chances were there for that to happen.

When Chelsea visit Spurs on New Year's Day, they will also bring some forwards that are capable of finishing the opportunities that come their way and I can see the away side posing some real problems. The pace of Eden Hazard and the passing of Cesc Fabregas creates space for Diego Costa and it would be something of a surprise if Tottenham Hotspur continue to get away with some shoddy defending they have produced.

On the other hand, I don't believe Chelsea are worthy of being such a short favourite to win considering recent results on their travels. There is plenty of quality in the Chelsea team, but their defence doesn't seem to be as strong when away from Stamford Bridge and Harry Kane has been in the kind of form where he only needs half a sight of goal to put the ball into the back of the net.

Tottenham Hotspur also have a decent home record against Chelsea in recent seasons, but I wouldn't be confident in backing them to take something from this game. My reasons are that they seem to have been getting a lot of luck for some of their results in recent weeks and even losing a bit of that will give the edge to Chelsea, who certainly have the players to take advantage.

Both teams should have their chances and I won't be surprised if both score with 1-1 being the predominant score in recent games at White Hart Lane between these two teams. In fact, 3 of the last 4 Premier League games at this ground between Spurs and Chelsea have ended 1-1, but I think the chances that are likely to be created will separate the teams and find a winner.

Therefore, I am backing over 2.5 goals in this game without the confidence of really knowing which team will win- Chelsea are more likely, but Spurs could ride their luck yet again and instead I will simply stick with the belief that there will be goals in the late kick off.

MY PICKS: Stoke City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Southampton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Ham United to Win @ 1.90 Stan James (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur- Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 70-98-1, - 18.88 Units (289 Units Staked, - 6.53% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

New Year's Day Football Picks 2014 (January 1st)

And just like that, we have reached 2014 and the start of what could be a very strong year for football fans throughout the world. Of course, the big event during the course of the year is going to be the World Cup in Brazil that will begin in June, but the Premier League looks like it will be a fascinating race with a number of teams all expecting to challenge.

The relegation battle is no less exciting thanks to a positive Christmas showing for the teams that had entered the festive period in the bottom three.

Of course, this is a good time for people to predict what they think will happen over the next five months of the domestic and European seasons and I am going to follow that trend:

Premier League Winner: Manchester City- Away form looks to be improving and I think they have too much quality in the squad compared with their rivals.

Top Four: Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea- same four as last season, but I think Liverpool will push teams all the way and Tottenham Hotspur could be improved with the attacking philosophy that Tim Sherwood seems to be showing.

Relegation: Sunderland, Cardiff City and Crystal Palace- this looks a very close race and I have just gone with Sunderland to continue the trend of bottom at Christmas and go down that has been in force during the Premier League years. I also predict Cardiff City with the management issues, and Crystal Palace who I don't believe have the requisite quality now although that could change after the January transfer window comes to a close.

League Cup: Manchester City- looks like being a Final between Manchester City and Manchester United after they were kept apart in the Semi Finals.

FA Cup: Manchester United- it has been ten years since Manchester United last won this competition, it is the one that David Moyes came closest to winning as manager of Everton and United begin with a home game in the Third Round. The draw is critical, but this could be the competition that David Moyes wins his first silverware at Old Trafford, just as it provided for Sir Alex Ferguson.

Top Scorer: Luis Suarez- the injury to Sergio Aguero opens the door for Suarez to take home the title as long as he doesn't racially abuse/bite an opponent and has to serve another long ban.

Player of the Season: Luis Suarez- should be a shoo-in if he keeps his nose clean and potentially follows last season's Player of the Year, Gareth Bale, with a move to Real Madrid if Liverpool don't finish in the top four.

Champions League Winner: Real Madrid- I have a feeling this could be their year with doubts surrounding Barcelona and Bayern Munich after tough draws in the last 16. The English sides still look short of the best teams in Europe and I think Real Madrid have the scoring power to go all the way with Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale in their ranks.

Europa League Winner: Shakhtar Donetsk- this is always a difficult competition to predict as teams don't always take it seriously, but Shakhtar have the quality and the experience of winning this before. The likes of Juventus, Napoli and Tottenham Hotspur will all believe in their chances to win this one too if they play their strong teams throughout the rest of the competition.


December proved to be another strong month for the picks to make it four months in a row with a profit from the football picks- that has turned around a terrible start to the season when August went completely down the drain, but the last four months has had a couple of big months that will hopefully continue going into the new calendar year.


Swansea v Manchester City Pick: One of my reasons for picking Manchester City to win the Premier League title is an improving away form to complement their strong record at the Etihad Stadium and I believe they can show those improvements at the Liberty Stadium.

The early live game kicks of the 2014 calendar year and City have the chance to move to the top of the Premier League, albeit for a few hours, if they can win at Swansea and follow the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton to do so.

Swansea haven't been as effective this season as they were last season and I do continue to blame the extra games of the Europa League for their plight. Too many inconsistent performances and missing the likes of Michu does give Manchester City the edge in my opinion, even though they are missing Sergio Aguero.

Goals haven't been a problem for Manchester City as they have scored at least 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 away games in all competitions which includes in 2 of their last 3 away games in the Premier League. However, they continue to ship them at an alarming rate on their travels, failing to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 11 games, and Swansea did score against the other top teams they have hosted this season.

With that in mind, backing Manchester City to win in a game where both teams score looks the right call.


Arsenal v Cardiff City Pick: I may have my doubts about this current Arsenal squad being able to mount a realistic Premier League title challenge, but they did earn an impressive win at Newcastle United in their last game which did catch my attention.

It will be results like that one that will keep Arsenal amongst the leading contenders for the title and it also meant they finished 2013 in first place, a position from which the last 4 Premier League Champions have won the title.

That bodes well for Arsenal and I expect them to see off Cardiff City in this one to make sure they end this evening at the top of the table. Mesut Ozil may not be available, but there is plenty of attacking talent in the Arsenal squad to think they can score in this one, but the bigger impact may come from a defence that has been strong at home with only 6 goals conceded in 9 games, 3 of those goals coming in one match.

The Asian Handicap is set for Arsenal to cover 2 goals, but they have won a number of games here by the same 2-0 scoreline of late, although they have only managed draws in their last 2 games. In fact, Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 games here and Cardiff have struggled for goals away from home all season.

Cardiff did manage to find the net at Chelsea and Liverpool, but there is a lot of uncertainty at the club right now and confidence may be dented by the 2-2 draw with Sunderland when Cardiff were leading 2-0 inside the last ten minutes. They just may struggle against a solid enough defence to score in this game and I like Arsenal to win with a clean sheet to boot.


Liverpool v Hull City Pick: Back to back defeats at Manchester City and Chelsea will have been a timely reminder to Liverpool as to how much is required for them to realistically consider a title challenge. The January transfer window may see them strengthen the squad, but the most important aim for Liverpool this season is finding their way back into the Champions League.

Liverpool have been strong at Anfield all season and they have won their last 6 games here in the Premier League since the surprise 0-1 loss to Southampton, They have scored plenty of goals, but the squad has been stretched with the amount of games they have had to play in a short period of time and that is where Hull City will feel they can make life difficult.

No Steven Gerrard or Daniel Sturridge means Liverpool can't make the rotations in the squad that they would perhaps want, while Hull City have been tough to play through the season and are coming off a huge 6-0 win over Fulham. However, they have lost 6 of their last 9 away games in the Premier League and have lost by a couple of goals at Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal so there is every chance Liverpool can become the latest to do that if Luis Suarez is in form.

Goals have been plentiful for Liverpool in front of their own fans and backing them to win this one by a couple of goals, at least, is the call.


Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Another live game on New Year's Day sees two teams that have had decent first halves of the season take on one another at St Mary's when Southampton host Chelsea.

Southampton made such a start to the season that some fans were dreaming of the Champions League, but those results have slipped in recent weeks and the defence which had played so well is beginning to look vulnerable.

I think Chelsea are good enough to take advantage of the new found issues in defence, but they also look like a team that will give their opposition chances to score and Southampton have been the kind of team that has enough attacking potential to create chances and score goals.

It is hard to separate these teams, but I have a feeling that recent history which has seen the 4 games since Southampton have been promoted, and 7 in a row in total, see at least 3 goals shared will continue in this game. I am expecting both teams to score at least once and I do think there will be the opportunity for either side to claim the three points so backing at least 3 goals to be scored is my prediction.


West Brom v Newcastle United Pick: When these teams met at St James' Park around a month ago, I picked for the game to end with at least three goals shared between the teams and I have a feeling we could see something similar in this one.

West Brom are still searching for their new manager to replace Steve Clarke, but they showed their capabilities in front of goal and also their defensive issues in their 3-3 draw at West Ham United in their last game.

They are going to be hosting a Newcastle United team that will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Arsenal, but one that has won 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League. However, it is also interesting to note that 6 of Newcastle's last 8 away games in the League have ended with at least three goals shared and this fixture has a habit of producing goals.

If West Brom defend as they did against West Ham at times, Newcastle will feel they can come here and win, but the Baggies will also be able to cause some problems going forward so I will be looking for goals in this one.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This could potentially be a huge game for these two sides that are chasing a place in the top four as a minimum aim this season and it is a game where I feel Manchester United can come out on top.

Wayne Rooney is still a doubt, but Manchester United are beginning to show the resilience that has made them champions over the years and that has led to 5 straight wins in all competitions as they come menacingly up the table and within striking distance of the leading teams.

This certainly represents a tough game against a Tottenham Hotspur side that has won the joint most away games in the Premier League so far and one that has shown more attacking intentions since Tim Sherwood replaced Andre Villas-Boas as manager.

I would be surprised if Sherwood asks his team to take a backward step in this one and that should pose Manchester United problems, especially as United have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 7 Premier League games at Old Trafford. A couple of those games ended with 0-1 losses against Everton and Newcastle United, but confidence does look a little more stable coming into this one.

That confidence may see United coming through and winning this game against a Tottenham side that also have struggled for clean sheets in recent away games, but who have been able to out-score teams. Spurs will be dangerous on the counter-attack, but I think Manchester United are going to be too strong and, like their local rivals, I think United come through and win a game in which both teams score.

MY PICKS: Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Southampton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 82-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)