The US Open draw was revealed on Thursday evening and I am going to be breaking down the outright selections on the final Grand Slam of the season by Saturday afternoon.
On Sunday I should have the US Open Day 1 Picks ready to go, but the early thoughts from the tournament coming up is that the women's draw is wide open outside of a very tough First Quarter, while defending Champion Rafael Nadal has to be very confident of his chances to go very deep in the draw.
That's for another day though and today the focus is on the Semi Final matches to be played at ATP Winston Salem and WTA New Haven. Surprisingly I do have three selections from the four matches that are to be played on Friday as I look to round off this week with some solid successes and momentum to take into the US Open beginning this Monday.
Julia Goerges v Aryna Sabalenka: It would be foolish to be anything but impressed with the performances of Aryna Sabalenka who looks like a player that could be a real force on the WTA Tour in the years ahead. The young Belarusian has really enjoyed the hard courts over the last month after a surprising Qualifier defeat in San Jose and she has backed up her Semi Final run at the Cincinnati Premier Event by reaching the same stage here in New Haven.
The big points have really been the key factor for Sabalenka who has held her nerve at important times in matches over the last couple of weeks. That does mean she has won a couple of matches that could have easily gone the other way and there is clearly some room for improvement even though she has produced a solid winning record in that time.
It does have to be acknowledged that Sabalenka has been playing at a much higher standard this week in New Haven compared with Cincinnati and that has resulted in two very strong wins over Sam Stosur and Belinda Bencic. The serve has been huge for her, but Sabalenka still has to be a little better on the return of serve and now she faces Julia Goerges who has been very good on the hard courts.
The serve has always been a big weapon for Goerges and she has actually improved slightly on the numbers she produced in 2017. The German was a little fortunate to get through one match here, but the other two wins in New Haven have seen Goerges playing very well and all of the tennis played by Sabalenka over the last couple of weeks could have an impact on her at some point.
I do think this will be a close match with both players looking to dominate behind serve. It is Goerges who has the slightly superior return game at this moment in their careers and I think that is the key difference in this one and I will back the top ten Ranked player to make it through to the Final.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Taro Daniel: Over the last month I have been keen to get behind Daniil Medvedev on a number of occasions and I have to admit he has not really let me down. There continues to be a slight under-appreciation of Medvedev and the kind of tennis he can play on the hard courts, but that may have something to do with the youngster losing a little of the consistency which he had been building up.
The overall numbers produced by Medvedev on the hard courts in 2018 have been significantly improved on what he produced in 2017 and the Russian is 11-3 on the hard courts over the last month. A number of those wins have come in the Qualifiers, but that is the kind of level of opponent he will be facing in this Semi Final.
Taro Daniel has had a strong run in Winston Salem but he has been far from convincing in at least two of his four wins here. You have to credit any player for getting through the matches when they have been as tight as they have been, but Daniel is right to be the underdog in this one.
He can step up his level as he showed when beating Novak Djokovic at the Indian Wells Masters but that is arguably the best win of his career and there has been little sign Daniel can reach that level on any consistent basis. Daniel is holding under 75% of service games on the hard courts in 2018 which puts him under intense pressure all the time on the quicker surfaces, and that is highlighted by the fact he is breaking at under 25% of the time on the return.
Putting those numbers together and you do begin to see it will be difficult for Daniel to maintain strong runs through the draws and he has been far from dominant in Winston Salem as I have already mentioned.
The Medvedev return game has been decent on the hard courts with 38% of return points won on this surface in each of the last two seasons. Those numbers get a little better when Medvedev is playing opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and I do like the chances of the younger player winning and making it through to the Final with a cover of this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On Thursday I backed Pablo Carreno Busta and Kyle Edmund to win their Quarter Final matches, but Steve Johnson had other ideas. The American had shown very little form to take into the US Open, but he has produced some of his best tennis this week in New Haven and he will certainly be a tough out the rest of the way.
However I continue to insist Pablo Carreno Busta is being under-rated on the hard courts and he has already beaten Johnson in straight sets at the Miami Masters earlier in 2018. They did play a much closer match on the clay courts since then, but Johnson was perhaps a little fortunate that day having saved 11/14 break points in the match and taking his chances to win the second set.
You could argue Johnson is in the middle of his best form of the season on the hard courts having won his three matches as impressively as he has. It is easily the best three consecutive matches he has played on the hard courts since Delray Beach back in February and Johnson has to be playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.
The American has to be respected for the big improvement he has made on the return side of his game which makes him more dangerous if he can maintain the numbers on the serve. While the 22% break percentage is perhaps not the greatest number you will see, it is an improvement from Johnson and makes him a player that could cause some problems in the upcoming US Open.
However there had been one or two struggles from Johnson in the last month prior to the week in Winston Salem and now he faces an opponent who is serving as well as at any time in his career. Pablo Carreno Busta was only broken once by Hyeon Chung, a very good returner, in his Quarter Final win and he was under very little pressure for much of the match.
The Spaniard is a very good returner on the hard courts which has sparked his good results on the surface over the last twelve months. I am sure Carreno Busta would like to be a little more clinical with the break point chances he is creating, but even with that in mind I would favour him to win this match and I think he is being a little under-rated in this match.
He was clearly the better player on the day when he beat Johnson in Miami and I will look for Carreno Busta to win and cover in this Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Julia Goerges @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 4.94 Units (8 Units Staked, + 61.75% Yield)
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Showing posts with label New Haven. Show all posts
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Friday, 24 August 2018
Thursday, 23 August 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (August 23rd)
We are now just days away from the start of the main draw at the US Open and so this remains a big week for players to get some much needed wins under them.
The WTA event in New Haven featured more players who could go very deep into the draw in New York, but injury and illness have seen some of those now go into the final Grand Slam with some questions to answer.
The ATP event in Winston Salem always felt a very good chance for players to touch up their game and pick up some vital Ranking points ahead of the next Grand Slam. Generally these weeks can be tough to read with players perhaps not as focused as they could be knowing the final Grand Slam of the season is almost set to get underway, but now we have reached the Quarter Final stage of both events you would hope that everyone involved will want to pick up the title and head to New York with some momentum.
Weather permitting there will be at least one day of rest for any players reaching the Final this week before they play their First Round match in New York and so I am confident that the focus will be there for all the players involved on Thursday.
I've only had two Tennis Picks this week because it can be tough to back anyone with a lot of confidence in the final week before a Grand Slam begins. So far it has been a decent return with both of those Picks coming back as winners, but I've made good starts the last couple of weeks and faltered down the stretch which is what I am looking to avoid this week to build some momentum for the US Open.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Matches between these players have been very close over the years with both Petra Kvitova and Carla Suarez Navarro winning five of the ten matches played. They have shared wins on the hard courts despite this being a favoured surface of Kvitova, but that is much to do with the fact that the aggressive Kvitova can be frustrated by the defence of the Spaniard which leads to a lot of errors.
There has been some slippage of the Suarez Navarro return game this year on the hard courts and I do think that will have given the edge to the higher Ranked player.
The Kvitova serve remains a big weapon for the Czech player, but she can still be very inconsistent and there are times when she will go through a number of games making error after error. That is where Suarez Navarro is going to want to take Kvitova, but the decline in the returning numbers is a big problem for the Spaniard and a huge factor in her relatively poor 14-9 record on the hard courts.
One area of significance in this match is how Kvitova is feeling on the return of serve. While her numbers are decent enough, I do think Kvitova can be let down by this part of her game and she has to make sure she puts Suarez Navarro under the kind of pressure Sloane Stephens did when the American beat her comfortably in Montreal.
You don't always know what you are going to get with Kvitova, but I do think she is the kind of player who will either blow away Suarez Navarro or struggle in a surprise defeat. Recent form suggests there have been more good moments from Kvitova and I think she can edge out Suarez Navarro in a straight sets win which should see her have enough break point chances to cover the number.
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: In 2017 Kyle Edmund deservedly got the better of Steve Johnson both here in Winston Salem and also at the US Open and I think the British player can frank that with another win in this Quarter Final. Edmund did drop the first set when they met here at the same stage in Winston Salem in 2017, but he has won the next five sets against Johnson and he has played well enough on the hard courts to get past the home favourite again.
You can't completely ignore the poor record Edmund has had on the hard courts since reaching the Australian Open Semi Final back in January. The struggles at Indian Wells and Miami continued over the last month, but Edmund has produced two strong wins in the Winston Salem tournament which may have restored some of the confidence.
Edmund has been a little unfortunate in a couple of losses where there was very little between him and his opponent, while his serve has been effective enough to think he can keep the pressure on Johnson. There has been an improvement in the Johnson return game which has to be respected, but he struggled to deal with the Edmund serve last year and the forehand to forehand battle is likely to be won by the British player off the ground.
A key for Johnson is going to be getting more out of the serve which remains a big weapon for him. The percentage of points won behind serve on the hard courts have declined over the last four seasons, but Johnson still has a decent enough number to hold between 82% and 86% of games per season in that time. That is a huge number, but Edmund did play very well against Johnson in their two hard court matches twelve months ago and I think he can do the same here against a player who had lost all three hard court matches played over the last month before putting two wins together here in Winston Salem.
I have to respect the fact that their numbers are very similar on the hard courts in 2018, but those two wins Edmund earned last year have to be a factor here. Neither player has faced a tougher opponent than the one standing across the other side of the net on Thursday, but Edmund looks to be on the stronger form all around and I will back him to beat Johnson for a third straight time and also to cover this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Hyeon Chung: The higher Ranked player is the underdog in this match and I can see why that would be the case, but I think the prices have shifted to a point where Pablo Carreno Busta can be backed to move through to the Semi Final.
Hyeon Chung is most definitely on a path up the World Rankings and he has the potential to be a Grand Slam winner. This season he has made the Australian Open Semi Final and backed that up with a couple of solid runs at Indian Wells and Miami, but the consistency has not quite been there over the last month on the return to the hard courts.
Part of the issue has been the recent return from injury for Chung and he has come through his two matches in Winston Salem in tight matches. The numbers during the last month have just not quite reached the overall numbers produced in 2018 on this surface and Chung is holding at less than 80% while his return game has really struggled.
You would think he could get back on track against someone like Pablo Carreno Busta whose serve is perhaps one of the weaker ones in the top 50 of the World Rankings. However that is more a perception than a reality with Carreno Busta who has reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2017 and the same stage in Miami earlier in 2018.
Carreno Busta played well in Cincinnati last week too and his 15-6 hard court record in 2018 is a very good one. On the serve the Spaniard is holding almost 85% of his service games which is significantly better than what he has produced in previous years on the hard courts, although I do wonder if it is a level he can maintain.
However you can add those numbers to the decent return ones and Carreno Busta has every chance of the upset against an opponent who has not found his best tennis consistently over the last month. The Spaniard has played well this past week but has to lift his game a little more to win a match like this one.
I do think it is going to be a close one regardless and it could come down to one or two points in the final set to determine who is able to move through to the Semi Final. With that in mind, there looks to be a real disparity in the odds and I will back the underdog in a two horse race who has played the slightly better tennis on this surface in the last few weeks.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.37 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 105% Yield)
The WTA event in New Haven featured more players who could go very deep into the draw in New York, but injury and illness have seen some of those now go into the final Grand Slam with some questions to answer.
The ATP event in Winston Salem always felt a very good chance for players to touch up their game and pick up some vital Ranking points ahead of the next Grand Slam. Generally these weeks can be tough to read with players perhaps not as focused as they could be knowing the final Grand Slam of the season is almost set to get underway, but now we have reached the Quarter Final stage of both events you would hope that everyone involved will want to pick up the title and head to New York with some momentum.
Weather permitting there will be at least one day of rest for any players reaching the Final this week before they play their First Round match in New York and so I am confident that the focus will be there for all the players involved on Thursday.
I've only had two Tennis Picks this week because it can be tough to back anyone with a lot of confidence in the final week before a Grand Slam begins. So far it has been a decent return with both of those Picks coming back as winners, but I've made good starts the last couple of weeks and faltered down the stretch which is what I am looking to avoid this week to build some momentum for the US Open.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Matches between these players have been very close over the years with both Petra Kvitova and Carla Suarez Navarro winning five of the ten matches played. They have shared wins on the hard courts despite this being a favoured surface of Kvitova, but that is much to do with the fact that the aggressive Kvitova can be frustrated by the defence of the Spaniard which leads to a lot of errors.
There has been some slippage of the Suarez Navarro return game this year on the hard courts and I do think that will have given the edge to the higher Ranked player.
The Kvitova serve remains a big weapon for the Czech player, but she can still be very inconsistent and there are times when she will go through a number of games making error after error. That is where Suarez Navarro is going to want to take Kvitova, but the decline in the returning numbers is a big problem for the Spaniard and a huge factor in her relatively poor 14-9 record on the hard courts.
One area of significance in this match is how Kvitova is feeling on the return of serve. While her numbers are decent enough, I do think Kvitova can be let down by this part of her game and she has to make sure she puts Suarez Navarro under the kind of pressure Sloane Stephens did when the American beat her comfortably in Montreal.
You don't always know what you are going to get with Kvitova, but I do think she is the kind of player who will either blow away Suarez Navarro or struggle in a surprise defeat. Recent form suggests there have been more good moments from Kvitova and I think she can edge out Suarez Navarro in a straight sets win which should see her have enough break point chances to cover the number.
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: In 2017 Kyle Edmund deservedly got the better of Steve Johnson both here in Winston Salem and also at the US Open and I think the British player can frank that with another win in this Quarter Final. Edmund did drop the first set when they met here at the same stage in Winston Salem in 2017, but he has won the next five sets against Johnson and he has played well enough on the hard courts to get past the home favourite again.
You can't completely ignore the poor record Edmund has had on the hard courts since reaching the Australian Open Semi Final back in January. The struggles at Indian Wells and Miami continued over the last month, but Edmund has produced two strong wins in the Winston Salem tournament which may have restored some of the confidence.
Edmund has been a little unfortunate in a couple of losses where there was very little between him and his opponent, while his serve has been effective enough to think he can keep the pressure on Johnson. There has been an improvement in the Johnson return game which has to be respected, but he struggled to deal with the Edmund serve last year and the forehand to forehand battle is likely to be won by the British player off the ground.
A key for Johnson is going to be getting more out of the serve which remains a big weapon for him. The percentage of points won behind serve on the hard courts have declined over the last four seasons, but Johnson still has a decent enough number to hold between 82% and 86% of games per season in that time. That is a huge number, but Edmund did play very well against Johnson in their two hard court matches twelve months ago and I think he can do the same here against a player who had lost all three hard court matches played over the last month before putting two wins together here in Winston Salem.
I have to respect the fact that their numbers are very similar on the hard courts in 2018, but those two wins Edmund earned last year have to be a factor here. Neither player has faced a tougher opponent than the one standing across the other side of the net on Thursday, but Edmund looks to be on the stronger form all around and I will back him to beat Johnson for a third straight time and also to cover this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Hyeon Chung: The higher Ranked player is the underdog in this match and I can see why that would be the case, but I think the prices have shifted to a point where Pablo Carreno Busta can be backed to move through to the Semi Final.
Hyeon Chung is most definitely on a path up the World Rankings and he has the potential to be a Grand Slam winner. This season he has made the Australian Open Semi Final and backed that up with a couple of solid runs at Indian Wells and Miami, but the consistency has not quite been there over the last month on the return to the hard courts.
Part of the issue has been the recent return from injury for Chung and he has come through his two matches in Winston Salem in tight matches. The numbers during the last month have just not quite reached the overall numbers produced in 2018 on this surface and Chung is holding at less than 80% while his return game has really struggled.
You would think he could get back on track against someone like Pablo Carreno Busta whose serve is perhaps one of the weaker ones in the top 50 of the World Rankings. However that is more a perception than a reality with Carreno Busta who has reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2017 and the same stage in Miami earlier in 2018.
Carreno Busta played well in Cincinnati last week too and his 15-6 hard court record in 2018 is a very good one. On the serve the Spaniard is holding almost 85% of his service games which is significantly better than what he has produced in previous years on the hard courts, although I do wonder if it is a level he can maintain.
However you can add those numbers to the decent return ones and Carreno Busta has every chance of the upset against an opponent who has not found his best tennis consistently over the last month. The Spaniard has played well this past week but has to lift his game a little more to win a match like this one.
I do think it is going to be a close one regardless and it could come down to one or two points in the final set to determine who is able to move through to the Semi Final. With that in mind, there looks to be a real disparity in the odds and I will back the underdog in a two horse race who has played the slightly better tennis on this surface in the last few weeks.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.37 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 105% Yield)
Tuesday, 21 August 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (August 21st)
This is the final week before the fourth Grand Slam of the Tennis season begins in New York and the WTA event in New Haven is clearly the tournament with more contenders playing in it.
The ATP event in Winston Salem has some decent players involved, but the main contenders in New York are all resting up to get ready for an assault on the title. There may not be as many Tennis Picks this week simply because my focus is beginning to turn to the Grand Slam which begins soon, but there may be some good options to play after two pretty poor weeks for the Picks in Canada and Cincinnati.
On Tuesday I begin this week with three Picks from the two tournaments being played.
Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: Both of these young players have produced some very good tennis on the hard courts over the last month which will give them some confidence to take into the final Grand Slam of the season. However for both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur will see the week in Winston Salem as the chance to add some much needed World Ranking points which can stand them in good stead over the next twelve months.
Some could argue that both of these players should be looking at this week as arguably being even more important than the upcoming US Open. There is no guessing what kind of draw unseeded players like Medvedev and De Minaur will receive in New York so winning this match and moving deep into the event here is very important to them.
I don't think it could be a big surprise that both Medvedev and De Minaur have been so inconsistent in 2018. The latter has reached two Finals at this level on the hard courts which is very impressive, but De Minaur has not really had a big impact in any other event outside of Sydney and Washington, especially when it comes to the hard courts.
This does feel like it is going to be a very close match with their numbers on the hard courts being very similar over the course of 2018. One of the differences between them on the day could be the fact that Daniil Medvedev has already won one match in the tournament while the Seeded Alex De Minaur received a bye through to the Second Round.
Having some familiarity with the conditions will be a boost to the Russian underdog and he does have the slightly better numbers than De Minaur over the course of the season. The Medvedev form has been good and I think he can overturn the expectations from the odds and that is by winning this match as the underdog in the Second Round.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: The last twelve months have not been as positive for Johanna Konta as she would have liked and she has been more testy in press conferences as each month has passed by. The British Number 1 will be the first to admit that she has perhaps underachieved but her results have been poorer than the performances and I don't believe Konta is far away from moving back up the World Rankings.
The hard courts should be the favoured surface for Konta and her 15-10 record in 2018 is perhaps a little harsh on her with some tough losses taken. You can't deny the numbers are down on the serve compared with the last couple of years when Konta has thrived in her stunning run up the World Rankings, but she should still have enough from that side of her game to give Carla Suarez Navarro plenty of problems.
Suarez Navarro has slipped down the World Rankings and her hard court numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons. The Spaniard remains a feisty competitor who can take advantage of any opponent not reaching a decent level of tennis, but she has a serve which can be vulnerable on the faster surfaces and Konta could definitely take advantage of that side of her game.
The key for Konta will always be how well she serves and that has been an aspect of her game which has been inconsistent at best. When at her best Konta can be very tough to break down, but if she is slightly off her game it could result in giving up too many breaks of serve which makes a cover of this number almost impossible.
Konta did crush Suarez Navarro when they met earlier in the year. Matching that won't be easy with the up and down nature of the Konta performances in 2018, but I do think she can return well enough to put Suarez Navarro under constant pressure. As long as Konta does look after her serve by holding Suarez to three or fewer breaks of serve in the match I think it will be enough for the British player to move into the next Round with a cover of the big number.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: In all honesty it has been a disappointing season on the hard courts for Caroline Garcia and this player still feels some way away from winning a Grand Slam title on any surface. That might be strange to say for a top 10 Ranked player, but I would be stunned if Garcia is able to make a significant impact at the upcoming US Open.
The Frenchwoman has really struggled when she has been asked to step up and take on the best players on the Tour, while her overall game still needs some real improvement. The Garcia serve is a decent weapon for her, but her return is not quite up to the level required to make an impact at the highest level.
However there has been a significant improvement when Garcia has faced players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those are highlighted by some strong numbers on the hard courts and there are improvements across the board in those matches compared with her overall numbers on this surface.
Garcia will respect Aliaksandra Sasnovich after needing three sets to beat this opponent at the Australian Open, while Sasnovich has already won four matches in New Haven after coming through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw.
Earlier this season Sasnovich reached the Final in Brisbane having seen off some top 20 opponents on the way, and she has a serve that needs to be respected. However the return game has been an issue for her and I think Sasnovich may just be put under enough pressure by the Garcia serve to feel scoreboard pressure and ultimately crack under that.
Both players will need the second serve to be effective to win this match and I am just about giving the edge to Garcia there. I also think she is the slightly superior returner and I will back the Frenchwoman to get through this match.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
The ATP event in Winston Salem has some decent players involved, but the main contenders in New York are all resting up to get ready for an assault on the title. There may not be as many Tennis Picks this week simply because my focus is beginning to turn to the Grand Slam which begins soon, but there may be some good options to play after two pretty poor weeks for the Picks in Canada and Cincinnati.
On Tuesday I begin this week with three Picks from the two tournaments being played.
Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: Both of these young players have produced some very good tennis on the hard courts over the last month which will give them some confidence to take into the final Grand Slam of the season. However for both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur will see the week in Winston Salem as the chance to add some much needed World Ranking points which can stand them in good stead over the next twelve months.
Some could argue that both of these players should be looking at this week as arguably being even more important than the upcoming US Open. There is no guessing what kind of draw unseeded players like Medvedev and De Minaur will receive in New York so winning this match and moving deep into the event here is very important to them.
I don't think it could be a big surprise that both Medvedev and De Minaur have been so inconsistent in 2018. The latter has reached two Finals at this level on the hard courts which is very impressive, but De Minaur has not really had a big impact in any other event outside of Sydney and Washington, especially when it comes to the hard courts.
This does feel like it is going to be a very close match with their numbers on the hard courts being very similar over the course of 2018. One of the differences between them on the day could be the fact that Daniil Medvedev has already won one match in the tournament while the Seeded Alex De Minaur received a bye through to the Second Round.
Having some familiarity with the conditions will be a boost to the Russian underdog and he does have the slightly better numbers than De Minaur over the course of the season. The Medvedev form has been good and I think he can overturn the expectations from the odds and that is by winning this match as the underdog in the Second Round.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: The last twelve months have not been as positive for Johanna Konta as she would have liked and she has been more testy in press conferences as each month has passed by. The British Number 1 will be the first to admit that she has perhaps underachieved but her results have been poorer than the performances and I don't believe Konta is far away from moving back up the World Rankings.
The hard courts should be the favoured surface for Konta and her 15-10 record in 2018 is perhaps a little harsh on her with some tough losses taken. You can't deny the numbers are down on the serve compared with the last couple of years when Konta has thrived in her stunning run up the World Rankings, but she should still have enough from that side of her game to give Carla Suarez Navarro plenty of problems.
Suarez Navarro has slipped down the World Rankings and her hard court numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons. The Spaniard remains a feisty competitor who can take advantage of any opponent not reaching a decent level of tennis, but she has a serve which can be vulnerable on the faster surfaces and Konta could definitely take advantage of that side of her game.
The key for Konta will always be how well she serves and that has been an aspect of her game which has been inconsistent at best. When at her best Konta can be very tough to break down, but if she is slightly off her game it could result in giving up too many breaks of serve which makes a cover of this number almost impossible.
Konta did crush Suarez Navarro when they met earlier in the year. Matching that won't be easy with the up and down nature of the Konta performances in 2018, but I do think she can return well enough to put Suarez Navarro under constant pressure. As long as Konta does look after her serve by holding Suarez to three or fewer breaks of serve in the match I think it will be enough for the British player to move into the next Round with a cover of the big number.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: In all honesty it has been a disappointing season on the hard courts for Caroline Garcia and this player still feels some way away from winning a Grand Slam title on any surface. That might be strange to say for a top 10 Ranked player, but I would be stunned if Garcia is able to make a significant impact at the upcoming US Open.
The Frenchwoman has really struggled when she has been asked to step up and take on the best players on the Tour, while her overall game still needs some real improvement. The Garcia serve is a decent weapon for her, but her return is not quite up to the level required to make an impact at the highest level.
However there has been a significant improvement when Garcia has faced players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those are highlighted by some strong numbers on the hard courts and there are improvements across the board in those matches compared with her overall numbers on this surface.
Garcia will respect Aliaksandra Sasnovich after needing three sets to beat this opponent at the Australian Open, while Sasnovich has already won four matches in New Haven after coming through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw.
Earlier this season Sasnovich reached the Final in Brisbane having seen off some top 20 opponents on the way, and she has a serve that needs to be respected. However the return game has been an issue for her and I think Sasnovich may just be put under enough pressure by the Garcia serve to feel scoreboard pressure and ultimately crack under that.
Both players will need the second serve to be effective to win this match and I am just about giving the edge to Garcia there. I also think she is the slightly superior returner and I will back the Frenchwoman to get through this match.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thursday, 25 August 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (August 25th)
It was a mixed bag of results for the picks on Wednesday, but that does mean they remain in a positive position for the week so far.
The focus is beginning to shift towards the US Open which will begin on Monday, but before that the tournaments in New Haven and Winston Salem will ensure they have completed their event on the Saturday to give players a little time to recover for the final Grand Slam of the season. That should mean every player remaining in the two tournaments will be focused to try and win the title, especially as the majority of them are not expected to challenge for the US Open title.
On Thursday the Quarter Final matches will be played through the day and I have picks from some of those matches as I look for a strong Thursday to ensure a strong week on the Tour which should give some momentum for the US Open picks that will begin next week.
Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: This is the fourth time Ekaterina Makarova and Petra Kvitova are playing one another on the Tour and it is the Russian underdog who has come through with two wins. However the most recent of those matches was at the Olympic Games and that was the one Kvitova won, while she hammered Makarova here in New Haven two years ago.
Each of the matches have been competitive in 2016 though and I think Makarova getting this many games has to be backed and I have backed her the previous two times she has played Kvitova at Wimbledon and at the Olympic Games. Both times I backed her with this same number of games being given to her, although my one concern is how well Kvitova has played at New Haven in the last few years.
Clearly she favours the conditions in Connecticut and Kvitova destroyed Eugenie Bouchard in the last match on Wednesday to show she is feeling her game perfectly. That match up is a good one for her though, while Makarova seems to be able to put Kvitova in difficult positions around the court which leads to competitive matches.
Makarova has won three of the last five matches outright, while Kvitova would only have covered this number once in their eight completed matches. The fact that the only cover came in New Haven bothers me a little with the form Kvitova has here in recent seasons, but I am taking the games in what has regularly become a battle on the court between these two lefty players.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v John Millman: It has to be said that John Millman is making the best out of his attributes which is keeping him in the top 100 of the World Rankings. It means direct entry into Grand Slam events and has to be respected and the Australian has plenty of heart as he has shown all week in Winston Salem.
Millman has come back from a set down in each of his first three matches in Winston Salem and battled through in three sets. At some point you would guess that is going to have a physical impact on his play, especially as Millman has to work hard to hold serve with not many cheap points coming off that shot.
The hard work does make Millman a danger in this match against Richard Gasquet who has been trying to regain his fitness after an injury forced him out at Wimbledon. The Frenchman was a fairly comfortable winner on Wednesday, but his serve is not at the peak of its powers and that meant Stephane Robert had a few break point chances of his own.
However I think Gasquet has returned well enough to give Millman some problems and I think he will prove a little too good on the day. I am looking for Gasquet to break late in the first set and early in the second to come through with a 64, 64 kind of win in this one.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: There are a few players on the Tour who can regularly play better than their World Ranking would suggest and Yen-Hsun Lu is one of those for me. He might be Number 72 in the World Rankings, but Lu has always enjoyed playing on the hard courts and he has backed up being a favourite in his first three matches in Winston Salem by winning all without dropping a set.
The mindset will be a little different in the Quarter Final as Lu is the underdog for the first time when he takes on a top 20 player in Roberto Bautista Agut. The Spaniard has won their previous two matches but the last one in Chennai in 2015 was a very close match that was decided by a few key points here and there.
It has been a more difficult path through to the Quarter Final for Bautista Agut who has had to come from a set down to win the last couple of matches. Dropping the first set has not stopped Bautista Agut from covering this number in his two wins here and he does look to be in slightly stronger form than Lu.
The latter has reached the Quarter Final twice and the Semi Final once in the last three years in Winston Salem so Lu will be confident of his chances to win this Quarter Final. However I think Bautista Agut will be a little too solid the longer the match goes on and can win this one 46, 63, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Victor Troicki: It has been a good tournament already for Victor Troicki who has beaten Kyle Edmund and Sam Querrey to get into this Quarter Final. He has recovered from a run of five consecutive losses on the Tour which has to have dented some of his confidence and I think Fernando Verdasco can prove too good for him in this match.
Verdasco has beaten one American youngster with a lot of potential to reach the top of the ATP and also beaten the current Number 1 American player. There have been spurts of good form from Verdasco coupled with some disappointing performances from the veteran Spaniard, but he is in better all around form than Troicki coming into this one.
The Troicki losses to Marin Cilic and Andy Murray would have been expected, but defeats to Kevin Anderson and Ryan Harrison were much more disappointing. The Serbian player has been serving well this week though which makes him dangerous but he doesn't have the best set of results on the hard courts this season even though he won the title in Sydney.
I can see Verdasco giving Troicki more trouble in the return games and he has also been serving effectively. Verdasco is not as consistent as he would like to be, but he has had the better all around results on the hard courts than Troicki and I think he can break down his opponent in a three set win while covering this number.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5% Yield)
The focus is beginning to shift towards the US Open which will begin on Monday, but before that the tournaments in New Haven and Winston Salem will ensure they have completed their event on the Saturday to give players a little time to recover for the final Grand Slam of the season. That should mean every player remaining in the two tournaments will be focused to try and win the title, especially as the majority of them are not expected to challenge for the US Open title.
On Thursday the Quarter Final matches will be played through the day and I have picks from some of those matches as I look for a strong Thursday to ensure a strong week on the Tour which should give some momentum for the US Open picks that will begin next week.
Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: This is the fourth time Ekaterina Makarova and Petra Kvitova are playing one another on the Tour and it is the Russian underdog who has come through with two wins. However the most recent of those matches was at the Olympic Games and that was the one Kvitova won, while she hammered Makarova here in New Haven two years ago.
Each of the matches have been competitive in 2016 though and I think Makarova getting this many games has to be backed and I have backed her the previous two times she has played Kvitova at Wimbledon and at the Olympic Games. Both times I backed her with this same number of games being given to her, although my one concern is how well Kvitova has played at New Haven in the last few years.
Clearly she favours the conditions in Connecticut and Kvitova destroyed Eugenie Bouchard in the last match on Wednesday to show she is feeling her game perfectly. That match up is a good one for her though, while Makarova seems to be able to put Kvitova in difficult positions around the court which leads to competitive matches.
Makarova has won three of the last five matches outright, while Kvitova would only have covered this number once in their eight completed matches. The fact that the only cover came in New Haven bothers me a little with the form Kvitova has here in recent seasons, but I am taking the games in what has regularly become a battle on the court between these two lefty players.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v John Millman: It has to be said that John Millman is making the best out of his attributes which is keeping him in the top 100 of the World Rankings. It means direct entry into Grand Slam events and has to be respected and the Australian has plenty of heart as he has shown all week in Winston Salem.
Millman has come back from a set down in each of his first three matches in Winston Salem and battled through in three sets. At some point you would guess that is going to have a physical impact on his play, especially as Millman has to work hard to hold serve with not many cheap points coming off that shot.
The hard work does make Millman a danger in this match against Richard Gasquet who has been trying to regain his fitness after an injury forced him out at Wimbledon. The Frenchman was a fairly comfortable winner on Wednesday, but his serve is not at the peak of its powers and that meant Stephane Robert had a few break point chances of his own.
However I think Gasquet has returned well enough to give Millman some problems and I think he will prove a little too good on the day. I am looking for Gasquet to break late in the first set and early in the second to come through with a 64, 64 kind of win in this one.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: There are a few players on the Tour who can regularly play better than their World Ranking would suggest and Yen-Hsun Lu is one of those for me. He might be Number 72 in the World Rankings, but Lu has always enjoyed playing on the hard courts and he has backed up being a favourite in his first three matches in Winston Salem by winning all without dropping a set.
The mindset will be a little different in the Quarter Final as Lu is the underdog for the first time when he takes on a top 20 player in Roberto Bautista Agut. The Spaniard has won their previous two matches but the last one in Chennai in 2015 was a very close match that was decided by a few key points here and there.
It has been a more difficult path through to the Quarter Final for Bautista Agut who has had to come from a set down to win the last couple of matches. Dropping the first set has not stopped Bautista Agut from covering this number in his two wins here and he does look to be in slightly stronger form than Lu.
The latter has reached the Quarter Final twice and the Semi Final once in the last three years in Winston Salem so Lu will be confident of his chances to win this Quarter Final. However I think Bautista Agut will be a little too solid the longer the match goes on and can win this one 46, 63, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Victor Troicki: It has been a good tournament already for Victor Troicki who has beaten Kyle Edmund and Sam Querrey to get into this Quarter Final. He has recovered from a run of five consecutive losses on the Tour which has to have dented some of his confidence and I think Fernando Verdasco can prove too good for him in this match.
Verdasco has beaten one American youngster with a lot of potential to reach the top of the ATP and also beaten the current Number 1 American player. There have been spurts of good form from Verdasco coupled with some disappointing performances from the veteran Spaniard, but he is in better all around form than Troicki coming into this one.
The Troicki losses to Marin Cilic and Andy Murray would have been expected, but defeats to Kevin Anderson and Ryan Harrison were much more disappointing. The Serbian player has been serving well this week though which makes him dangerous but he doesn't have the best set of results on the hard courts this season even though he won the title in Sydney.
I can see Verdasco giving Troicki more trouble in the return games and he has also been serving effectively. Verdasco is not as consistent as he would like to be, but he has had the better all around results on the hard courts than Troicki and I think he can break down his opponent in a three set win while covering this number.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5% Yield)
Wednesday, 24 August 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (August 24th)
It looked like it might be a frustrating opening day for the picks as Sam Querrey blew a second set tie-breaker despite being the stronger player, while Marcos Baghdatis had been a set and a break up before losing the second set.
However both players turned things around in the final set with Querrey coming back from a break down to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Baghdatis saved some break points before beating Donald Young.
That made up for the Timea Bacsinszky defeat to Johanna Larsson earlier in the day but I hope for an even better day on Wednesday.
The Seeds at the US Open were announced on Tuesday and we are fast approaching the draw being released. The weather in New York doesn't look the best earlier in the week, but the good news is that they do have a roof on Arthur Ashe so there will be tennis played every day, although the First Round matches might spill over to Wednesday.
Before that we have some big days in Winston Salem and New Haven to get through, but I should have picks out for Day 1 at the US Open by Sunday afternoon or very early Monday morning.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: Caroline Garcia has two wins over Kirsten Flipkens in the 2016 season already and I am backing the Frenchwoman to make it three in a row on Wednesday. Both players had impressive First Round wins, although Flipkens should have more feel for the conditions having played in the Qualifiers before being the recipient of a 'Lucky Loser' spot in the main draw.
She took advantage by beating Belinda Bencic in the First Round, but the matches with Garcia have not been a good match up for Flipkens so far. The first serve is not a big shot for Flipkens and she doesn't get as many cheap points off that as Garcia does which can build pressure over the course of a match.
Some of the Garcia results on the hard courts have been very disappointing when you think of the talent she has and the power she does possess. Garcia is just 1-3 on the hard courts this summer prior to the tournament here in New Haven and I do wonder if she finds the right rhythm when playing on the faster surfaces although she did reach the Semi Final in Dubai which is one of the faster hard courts on the Tour.
The bigger concern for Garcia is that many of her losses on the hard courts have come as the favourite, but she is facing an opponent who has failed to cover this number in all her defeats on the hard courts this season. Her win over Venus Williams at the Olympic Games might be a little overrated considering how Venus has been playing and I think Garcia wins this one 75, 64.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Eugenie Bouchard: It has been two seasons since Petra Kvitova and Eugenie Bouchard have met on the Tour, but the past meetings have shown the Kvitova power to be a huge difference maker.
This has not been a great season for Kvitova in terms of consistency, but she is the two time defending Champion in New Haven and has reached the Final here four times in a row while winning three times. The conditions are clearly something she enjoys although Kvitova had to overcome a scare in the First Round before seeing off Louise Chirico.
Eugenie Bouchard is having a far better season than 2015, but she is still not quite up to the consistency you need to start moving up the World Rankings. Too many times Bouchard looks like she has lost all belief within a match when things have not gone the way she anticipated and I think mentally she will be under pressure knowing Kvitova has blown her off the court in their previous matches.
While Bouchard has played well at times, when she goes behind she struggles to fight back in matches and I think Kvitova is going to prove too strong. She clearly loves playing here and I will back Kvitova to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Stephane Robert: The return from injury has seen Richard Gasquet struggle to find his best game and that has seen all three matches he has played since Wimbledon become really competitive. Gasquet has fought through to win two of those against the likes of Adrian Mannarino and Daniel Evans, but he will be looking to pick up the play as we fast approach the final Grand Slam of the season.
It is unlikely that Gasquet will be a threat to win it all in New York City, but it does represent a chance to improve the World Ranking as well as getting closer to making the final eight who will play in the ATP World Tour Championships in London.
The match up with Stephane Robert is a difficult one for Gasquet as the veteran has come through back to back matches that have gone three sets. However those battling displays show a player that will feel he can get the better of his compatriot even if he had lost five matches in a row prior to the victories in Winston Salem.
Robert had lost five matches in a row on the hard courts though and some of those have been on the Challenger level. He has been largely competitive, but I think someone like Gasquet can we a little too good at the key points to break Robert's game down and eventually come through with a 75, 63 win.
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: I am a little surprised that the layers think the match between Pablo Cuevas and Pablo Carreno Busta is going to be as competitive as they do. I have been wrong when I see a match going completely differently to how the layers believe, but I would have had Cuevas as a much stronger favourite to win this one.
He has won the last two matches between these players over the last twelve months and one of those came on an indoor hard court, while Cuevas has won all four sets played. The hard courts are not the favourite surface of the Uruguayan, but even that edge isn't there for Carreno Busta who has fewer wins on the hard courts than Cuevas in 2016.
I do think Carreno Busta's run to the Semi Final in Los Cabos a couple of weeks ago might have played a part in the pricing of this match, but he didn't exactly beat a stellar list of players before going out to Feliciano Lopez. Carreno Busta also reached the Quarter Final here in Winston Salem last season, but he was just 2-5 on the hard courts between those two strong runs and I think Cuevas will have a little too much for him.
Both players can be a little loose behind serve which is a concern as one of the players might run away with a set and Carreno Busta doing that would make it difficult for Cuevas to have any chance to cover. However I think Cuevas holds the mental edge and can find his way to a battling 75, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.28 Units (6 Units Staked, + 21.33% Yield)
However both players turned things around in the final set with Querrey coming back from a break down to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Baghdatis saved some break points before beating Donald Young.
That made up for the Timea Bacsinszky defeat to Johanna Larsson earlier in the day but I hope for an even better day on Wednesday.
The Seeds at the US Open were announced on Tuesday and we are fast approaching the draw being released. The weather in New York doesn't look the best earlier in the week, but the good news is that they do have a roof on Arthur Ashe so there will be tennis played every day, although the First Round matches might spill over to Wednesday.
Before that we have some big days in Winston Salem and New Haven to get through, but I should have picks out for Day 1 at the US Open by Sunday afternoon or very early Monday morning.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: Caroline Garcia has two wins over Kirsten Flipkens in the 2016 season already and I am backing the Frenchwoman to make it three in a row on Wednesday. Both players had impressive First Round wins, although Flipkens should have more feel for the conditions having played in the Qualifiers before being the recipient of a 'Lucky Loser' spot in the main draw.
She took advantage by beating Belinda Bencic in the First Round, but the matches with Garcia have not been a good match up for Flipkens so far. The first serve is not a big shot for Flipkens and she doesn't get as many cheap points off that as Garcia does which can build pressure over the course of a match.
Some of the Garcia results on the hard courts have been very disappointing when you think of the talent she has and the power she does possess. Garcia is just 1-3 on the hard courts this summer prior to the tournament here in New Haven and I do wonder if she finds the right rhythm when playing on the faster surfaces although she did reach the Semi Final in Dubai which is one of the faster hard courts on the Tour.
The bigger concern for Garcia is that many of her losses on the hard courts have come as the favourite, but she is facing an opponent who has failed to cover this number in all her defeats on the hard courts this season. Her win over Venus Williams at the Olympic Games might be a little overrated considering how Venus has been playing and I think Garcia wins this one 75, 64.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Eugenie Bouchard: It has been two seasons since Petra Kvitova and Eugenie Bouchard have met on the Tour, but the past meetings have shown the Kvitova power to be a huge difference maker.
This has not been a great season for Kvitova in terms of consistency, but she is the two time defending Champion in New Haven and has reached the Final here four times in a row while winning three times. The conditions are clearly something she enjoys although Kvitova had to overcome a scare in the First Round before seeing off Louise Chirico.
Eugenie Bouchard is having a far better season than 2015, but she is still not quite up to the consistency you need to start moving up the World Rankings. Too many times Bouchard looks like she has lost all belief within a match when things have not gone the way she anticipated and I think mentally she will be under pressure knowing Kvitova has blown her off the court in their previous matches.
While Bouchard has played well at times, when she goes behind she struggles to fight back in matches and I think Kvitova is going to prove too strong. She clearly loves playing here and I will back Kvitova to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Stephane Robert: The return from injury has seen Richard Gasquet struggle to find his best game and that has seen all three matches he has played since Wimbledon become really competitive. Gasquet has fought through to win two of those against the likes of Adrian Mannarino and Daniel Evans, but he will be looking to pick up the play as we fast approach the final Grand Slam of the season.
It is unlikely that Gasquet will be a threat to win it all in New York City, but it does represent a chance to improve the World Ranking as well as getting closer to making the final eight who will play in the ATP World Tour Championships in London.
The match up with Stephane Robert is a difficult one for Gasquet as the veteran has come through back to back matches that have gone three sets. However those battling displays show a player that will feel he can get the better of his compatriot even if he had lost five matches in a row prior to the victories in Winston Salem.
Robert had lost five matches in a row on the hard courts though and some of those have been on the Challenger level. He has been largely competitive, but I think someone like Gasquet can we a little too good at the key points to break Robert's game down and eventually come through with a 75, 63 win.
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: I am a little surprised that the layers think the match between Pablo Cuevas and Pablo Carreno Busta is going to be as competitive as they do. I have been wrong when I see a match going completely differently to how the layers believe, but I would have had Cuevas as a much stronger favourite to win this one.
He has won the last two matches between these players over the last twelve months and one of those came on an indoor hard court, while Cuevas has won all four sets played. The hard courts are not the favourite surface of the Uruguayan, but even that edge isn't there for Carreno Busta who has fewer wins on the hard courts than Cuevas in 2016.
I do think Carreno Busta's run to the Semi Final in Los Cabos a couple of weeks ago might have played a part in the pricing of this match, but he didn't exactly beat a stellar list of players before going out to Feliciano Lopez. Carreno Busta also reached the Quarter Final here in Winston Salem last season, but he was just 2-5 on the hard courts between those two strong runs and I think Cuevas will have a little too much for him.
Both players can be a little loose behind serve which is a concern as one of the players might run away with a set and Carreno Busta doing that would make it difficult for Cuevas to have any chance to cover. However I think Cuevas holds the mental edge and can find his way to a battling 75, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.28 Units (6 Units Staked, + 21.33% Yield)
Saturday, 29 August 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (August 29th)
The tournaments in Winston Salem and New Haven come to an end on Saturday to ensure the participants have at least a couple of days to make their way to New York City for the US Open.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Kevin Anderson came through his most difficult moments in the Semi Final in the very first service game of the match, but he ended up creating the break point chances and now goes for his first title since 2012.
Kevin Anderson has the experience of dealing with Finals as he has played in two already and now takes on a 'tired' Pierre-Hugues Herbert who somehow came through his Semi Final despite looking down and out.
Herbert was a set down, a break down, and faced two more break points but managed to save those against Steve Johnson before turning that match around. After playing eight matches in the last nine days, Herbert has admitted that he is feeling it physically and I think that might show up in this Final as well as the lack of experience that the Frenchman has at this level.
Of course that hasn't mattered at all this week as he has battled back from losing positions in the last two matches to fight through. However, Anderson will keep the pressure up with his big serve which is helping him out of difficult spots and knowing he won't crumble as Steve Johnson did in the Semi Final behind his best shot might just take away something from Herbert's resistance.
The first set should be tough, but Anderson getting in front will be much more difficult to pull back as Herbert did against Pablo Carreno Busta and Steve Johnson. Once Anderson is front, I expect him to go on and win his first title in over three years with a 64, 63 win.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: Petra Kvitova is looking to win her third title in four years at New Haven having battled through illness and some tough matches this week. Kvitova looks to have rounded into form at the right time with the Grand Slam just days away in Flushing Meadows and she has won all six previous matches against compatriot Lucie Safarova who opposes her in the Final.
You can't take anything away from the week that Safarova has had too which comes on the heels of a Quarter Final run at Cincinnati. This is a player who has improved markedly over the last fourteen months which an increased belief in her game and Safarova has a big serve with some heavy groundstrokes to give Kvitova something to think about.
However, Kvitova has been able to deal with what has come at her from the other side of the court because she has just slightly bigger weapons in both departments. The extra power just takes away a little time from Safarova and Kvitova has eventually worn her down in previous matches against her.
Of course the illness that Kvitova has been suffering with is a concern, but she has looked good this week and I think she breaks down Safarova again in a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-5, + 1 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.55% Yield)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Kevin Anderson came through his most difficult moments in the Semi Final in the very first service game of the match, but he ended up creating the break point chances and now goes for his first title since 2012.
Kevin Anderson has the experience of dealing with Finals as he has played in two already and now takes on a 'tired' Pierre-Hugues Herbert who somehow came through his Semi Final despite looking down and out.
Herbert was a set down, a break down, and faced two more break points but managed to save those against Steve Johnson before turning that match around. After playing eight matches in the last nine days, Herbert has admitted that he is feeling it physically and I think that might show up in this Final as well as the lack of experience that the Frenchman has at this level.
Of course that hasn't mattered at all this week as he has battled back from losing positions in the last two matches to fight through. However, Anderson will keep the pressure up with his big serve which is helping him out of difficult spots and knowing he won't crumble as Steve Johnson did in the Semi Final behind his best shot might just take away something from Herbert's resistance.
The first set should be tough, but Anderson getting in front will be much more difficult to pull back as Herbert did against Pablo Carreno Busta and Steve Johnson. Once Anderson is front, I expect him to go on and win his first title in over three years with a 64, 63 win.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: Petra Kvitova is looking to win her third title in four years at New Haven having battled through illness and some tough matches this week. Kvitova looks to have rounded into form at the right time with the Grand Slam just days away in Flushing Meadows and she has won all six previous matches against compatriot Lucie Safarova who opposes her in the Final.
You can't take anything away from the week that Safarova has had too which comes on the heels of a Quarter Final run at Cincinnati. This is a player who has improved markedly over the last fourteen months which an increased belief in her game and Safarova has a big serve with some heavy groundstrokes to give Kvitova something to think about.
However, Kvitova has been able to deal with what has come at her from the other side of the court because she has just slightly bigger weapons in both departments. The extra power just takes away a little time from Safarova and Kvitova has eventually worn her down in previous matches against her.
Of course the illness that Kvitova has been suffering with is a concern, but she has looked good this week and I think she breaks down Safarova again in a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-5, + 1 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.55% Yield)
Friday, 28 August 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (August 28th)
It was a tough day for the picks yesterday as neither player picked won more than five games over two sets. With the US Open days away, that kind of lacklustre effort is not a huge surprise as players begin to shift their focus to that event and perhaps don't want to drain the tank ahead of the final Grand Slam.
I am not sure that was the case for either pick yesterday to be honest, but it was a disappointment all the same.
On Friday the Semi Finals in New Haven and Winston Salem are being played and I have a couple of picks from those matches. I will also be keeping an eye on some of the British representatitves in the US Open Qualifiers who are one match away from making the main draw, especially Johanna Konta who I thought could have improved her Ranking to make the man draw without having to win three more matches this week.
Konta has gotten into the top 100 in the World Rankings having won the title in Vancouver last week, but it came too late to make the main draw automatically and she has done well to ride the momentum into the final Qualifying Round. Tamira Paszek is a tough opponent to face, but I hope Konta can get the job done with some places in the main draw looking kind for any Qualifier lucky enough to be drawn into those spots.
The plan for the weekend is to get the outright preview for the US Open out either late on Saturday or early on Sunday, while picks from Day 1 at Flushing Meadows should be live on Sunday evening with the tournament beginning on Monday. A quick look through the draw suggests the favourites could dominate the next two weeks in both men's and women's events, but I will have a closer look through this weekend and will have all my thoughts in the outright preview.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Steve Johnson has never made the Final of an ATP event, but he might not have a better chance to do that than this week. The draw at Winston Salem has worked out well for Johnson after he opened it up for himself by beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Third Round and a Semi Final against the qualifier Pierre-Hugues Herbert is one that he should expect to win.
That is no disrespect to Herbert who has battled through three qualifying matches before winning four matches in the main draw, but I do wonder how much is left in the tank. The Frenchman had to dig deep to beat Pablo Carreno Busta in the Quarter Final and his run to the Semi Final is a surprising one as Herbert won three matches as the underdog already this week.
Winning those matches should give him confidence against Johnson who is going to be feeling the nerves trying to get into his first ATP Final. However, Johnson recently played in the Semi Final in Washington and was unfortunate to lose to John Isner so can use that experience to perhaps help him through the difficult moments on Friday.
He has to be one of the more erratic players on the Tour with some great wins, but also some poor losses although I think Johnson holds the edge on the hard courts over Herbert. If Johnson can just hold his nerve, a 76, 63 win could be the result and a chance to play for a title days before his home Grand Slam begins.
Kevin Anderson - 4.5 games v Malek Jaziri: Kevin Anderson has been having a very good 2015 which has seen him reach a career high Ranking of Number 14, but he is hasn't picked up a title since 2012. This might be a very good chance to reach his third Final of the 2015 season and take home a title as he looks the best player left in Winston Salem, but he has to remain focused on the event and not look ahead to the US Open where he is expected to have an impact.
Not many would be tipping Anderson to win the Grand Slam though and that should be in his own mind too which makes the remaining two days in Winston Salem important for him. Anderson has put together three solid wins to reach the Semi Final and he has dismissed the challenge of Malek Jaziri without dropping a set in their two previous matches so confidence should be high.
However, Jaziri has come through three matches in a row as the underdog this week and so won't be without belief in his own chances to win this match. Jaziri is another player who reached a career high World Ranking in 2015, but he has never been able to progress to an ATP Final and those nerves can be difficult to control.
The other issue Jaziri will have is making sure he stays with Anderson under scoreboard pressure as he found himself in difficulties on serve in his Quarter Final win over Thomaz Bellucci. Jaziri overcame those moments, but he took an early lead in that match with a break in his first return game and I don't think Anderson is going to be as generous as the Brazilian was on Thursday.
Anderson won a healthy clip of the points against the Jaziri serve last year when they met in Washington and I think he will find the breaks of serve in this match too. I just feel Jaziri struggles to cope mentally as he is forced to work to hold serve while Anderson is able to roll through games a little easier and it will all result in a 64, 63 win for the South African and a third Final of the season.
Petra Kvitova + 2.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: I was concerned about how Petra Kvitova had been dealing with her mono illness as it had resulted in a couple of losses on the hard courts over the last couple of months. However, Kvitova may have turned a corner with an impressive recovery against Madison Keys and her previous performances at New Haven have clearly inspired her too.
This is a big Semi Final though as she faces Caroline Wozniacki who has also been in a pretty poor form before this week began. There were complaints about being 'forced' to play through injury in Canada and another early exit in Cincinnati, but Wozniacki has put together three solid wins as she looks for some momentum to take into the US Open where she reached the Final last year.
Wozniacki has won the last couple of matches against Petra Kvitova, but the latter was hitting the ball sweetly against Agnieszka Radwanska in her Quarter Final win and can use that power to end that sequence.
The biggest question I have is how much the mono issue is still taking out of Kvitova and whether three matches in quick succession is going to have drained the tank. Kvitova herself has admitted she is still dealing with the illness and she is just trying to fight through difficult moments, but I think the conditions in New Haven suit her and she can keep this competitive even in a losing effort.
To be honest, I think Kvitova can actually win the match outright so taking these games on board looks a good security blanket.
MY PICKS: Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.02 Units (16 Units Staked, - 6.38% Yield)
I am not sure that was the case for either pick yesterday to be honest, but it was a disappointment all the same.
On Friday the Semi Finals in New Haven and Winston Salem are being played and I have a couple of picks from those matches. I will also be keeping an eye on some of the British representatitves in the US Open Qualifiers who are one match away from making the main draw, especially Johanna Konta who I thought could have improved her Ranking to make the man draw without having to win three more matches this week.
Konta has gotten into the top 100 in the World Rankings having won the title in Vancouver last week, but it came too late to make the main draw automatically and she has done well to ride the momentum into the final Qualifying Round. Tamira Paszek is a tough opponent to face, but I hope Konta can get the job done with some places in the main draw looking kind for any Qualifier lucky enough to be drawn into those spots.
The plan for the weekend is to get the outright preview for the US Open out either late on Saturday or early on Sunday, while picks from Day 1 at Flushing Meadows should be live on Sunday evening with the tournament beginning on Monday. A quick look through the draw suggests the favourites could dominate the next two weeks in both men's and women's events, but I will have a closer look through this weekend and will have all my thoughts in the outright preview.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Steve Johnson has never made the Final of an ATP event, but he might not have a better chance to do that than this week. The draw at Winston Salem has worked out well for Johnson after he opened it up for himself by beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Third Round and a Semi Final against the qualifier Pierre-Hugues Herbert is one that he should expect to win.
That is no disrespect to Herbert who has battled through three qualifying matches before winning four matches in the main draw, but I do wonder how much is left in the tank. The Frenchman had to dig deep to beat Pablo Carreno Busta in the Quarter Final and his run to the Semi Final is a surprising one as Herbert won three matches as the underdog already this week.
Winning those matches should give him confidence against Johnson who is going to be feeling the nerves trying to get into his first ATP Final. However, Johnson recently played in the Semi Final in Washington and was unfortunate to lose to John Isner so can use that experience to perhaps help him through the difficult moments on Friday.
He has to be one of the more erratic players on the Tour with some great wins, but also some poor losses although I think Johnson holds the edge on the hard courts over Herbert. If Johnson can just hold his nerve, a 76, 63 win could be the result and a chance to play for a title days before his home Grand Slam begins.
Kevin Anderson - 4.5 games v Malek Jaziri: Kevin Anderson has been having a very good 2015 which has seen him reach a career high Ranking of Number 14, but he is hasn't picked up a title since 2012. This might be a very good chance to reach his third Final of the 2015 season and take home a title as he looks the best player left in Winston Salem, but he has to remain focused on the event and not look ahead to the US Open where he is expected to have an impact.
Not many would be tipping Anderson to win the Grand Slam though and that should be in his own mind too which makes the remaining two days in Winston Salem important for him. Anderson has put together three solid wins to reach the Semi Final and he has dismissed the challenge of Malek Jaziri without dropping a set in their two previous matches so confidence should be high.
However, Jaziri has come through three matches in a row as the underdog this week and so won't be without belief in his own chances to win this match. Jaziri is another player who reached a career high World Ranking in 2015, but he has never been able to progress to an ATP Final and those nerves can be difficult to control.
The other issue Jaziri will have is making sure he stays with Anderson under scoreboard pressure as he found himself in difficulties on serve in his Quarter Final win over Thomaz Bellucci. Jaziri overcame those moments, but he took an early lead in that match with a break in his first return game and I don't think Anderson is going to be as generous as the Brazilian was on Thursday.
Anderson won a healthy clip of the points against the Jaziri serve last year when they met in Washington and I think he will find the breaks of serve in this match too. I just feel Jaziri struggles to cope mentally as he is forced to work to hold serve while Anderson is able to roll through games a little easier and it will all result in a 64, 63 win for the South African and a third Final of the season.
Petra Kvitova + 2.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: I was concerned about how Petra Kvitova had been dealing with her mono illness as it had resulted in a couple of losses on the hard courts over the last couple of months. However, Kvitova may have turned a corner with an impressive recovery against Madison Keys and her previous performances at New Haven have clearly inspired her too.
This is a big Semi Final though as she faces Caroline Wozniacki who has also been in a pretty poor form before this week began. There were complaints about being 'forced' to play through injury in Canada and another early exit in Cincinnati, but Wozniacki has put together three solid wins as she looks for some momentum to take into the US Open where she reached the Final last year.
Wozniacki has won the last couple of matches against Petra Kvitova, but the latter was hitting the ball sweetly against Agnieszka Radwanska in her Quarter Final win and can use that power to end that sequence.
The biggest question I have is how much the mono issue is still taking out of Kvitova and whether three matches in quick succession is going to have drained the tank. Kvitova herself has admitted she is still dealing with the illness and she is just trying to fight through difficult moments, but I think the conditions in New Haven suit her and she can keep this competitive even in a losing effort.
To be honest, I think Kvitova can actually win the match outright so taking these games on board looks a good security blanket.
MY PICKS: Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.02 Units (16 Units Staked, - 6.38% Yield)
Thursday, 27 August 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (August 27th)
The draw for the US Open is made on Thursday morning Eastern Time and so the attention has shifted to the final Grand Slam of the season, but the Quarter Finals in New Haven and Winston Salem are also set for Thursday.
There might be eight matches to be played today, but I can only find picks from two of them.
Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 games v Malek Jaziri: Both of these players should have built some confidence this week having won at least a couple of matches to reach the Quarter Final and this is a good chance to pick up some vital Ranking points too.
Both Thomaz Bellucci and Malek Jaziri will see this as a very winnable Quarter Final and chances to reach the Semi Final of an ATP event have to be taken when presented like this. Bellucci has had the tougher summer on the North American hard courts, but that is also because he has been playing at a much higher level than Jaziri for the most part and dealing with the better quality should give him an edge in this match.
The Brazilian has had to dig deep to win his two matches this week which have both gone to three sets, but he should still have enough in the tank to see of Jaziri. However, I have to respect the fact that wins breed confidence and Jaziri has done a lot of winning over the last couple of weeks which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Even with that in mind, Bellucci has served well enough in his win over Jiri Vesely on Wednesday to think he can keep Jaziri under pressure and he will get chances to break serve. With a little more focus through the match, Bellucci can win this one 64, 64.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Lesia Tsurenko: She might be a Lucky Loser, but Lesia Tsurenko is a very dangerous opponent for Karolina Pliskova having reached the Quarter Final in Cincinnati last week. She put together a couple of very good wins in Cincinnati and Tsurenko also won the title in Istanbul over the last six weeks so is clearly going into the US Open with a lot of momentum behind her.
The defeat in the final Qualifier to Yulia Putintseva was very disappointing in the manner it came about, but Tsurenko was back to form with her win over Barbora Strycova in the Second Round.
Karolina Pliskova has to know this isn't going to be an easy match for her, but the World Number 8 was an impressive winner herself on Wednesday and did reach the Final in Stanford over the last six weeks. The problem for Pliskova has come in the two Premier Events in Toronto and Cincinnati where she failed to really fire, but she is a momentum player and has that behind her here in New Haven.
A tough match is in prospect in this Quarter Final, but I think Tsurenko has played a lot of tennis of late and that might see a bit of fatigue set in. If that is the case, I expect Pliskova will find a way to battle through with a 64, 64 win and move into another Semi Final on the North American hard courts.
MY PICKS: Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 2.98 Units (12 Units Staked, + 24.83% Yield)
There might be eight matches to be played today, but I can only find picks from two of them.
Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 games v Malek Jaziri: Both of these players should have built some confidence this week having won at least a couple of matches to reach the Quarter Final and this is a good chance to pick up some vital Ranking points too.
Both Thomaz Bellucci and Malek Jaziri will see this as a very winnable Quarter Final and chances to reach the Semi Final of an ATP event have to be taken when presented like this. Bellucci has had the tougher summer on the North American hard courts, but that is also because he has been playing at a much higher level than Jaziri for the most part and dealing with the better quality should give him an edge in this match.
The Brazilian has had to dig deep to win his two matches this week which have both gone to three sets, but he should still have enough in the tank to see of Jaziri. However, I have to respect the fact that wins breed confidence and Jaziri has done a lot of winning over the last couple of weeks which makes him a dangerous opponent.
Even with that in mind, Bellucci has served well enough in his win over Jiri Vesely on Wednesday to think he can keep Jaziri under pressure and he will get chances to break serve. With a little more focus through the match, Bellucci can win this one 64, 64.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Lesia Tsurenko: She might be a Lucky Loser, but Lesia Tsurenko is a very dangerous opponent for Karolina Pliskova having reached the Quarter Final in Cincinnati last week. She put together a couple of very good wins in Cincinnati and Tsurenko also won the title in Istanbul over the last six weeks so is clearly going into the US Open with a lot of momentum behind her.
The defeat in the final Qualifier to Yulia Putintseva was very disappointing in the manner it came about, but Tsurenko was back to form with her win over Barbora Strycova in the Second Round.
Karolina Pliskova has to know this isn't going to be an easy match for her, but the World Number 8 was an impressive winner herself on Wednesday and did reach the Final in Stanford over the last six weeks. The problem for Pliskova has come in the two Premier Events in Toronto and Cincinnati where she failed to really fire, but she is a momentum player and has that behind her here in New Haven.
A tough match is in prospect in this Quarter Final, but I think Tsurenko has played a lot of tennis of late and that might see a bit of fatigue set in. If that is the case, I expect Pliskova will find a way to battle through with a 64, 64 win and move into another Semi Final on the North American hard courts.
MY PICKS: Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 2.98 Units (12 Units Staked, + 24.83% Yield)
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