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Showing posts with label June 27th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label June 27th. Show all posts

Sunday, 26 June 2022

Wimbledon Tennis Day 1 Picks 2022 (June 27th)

And just like that, the third Grand Slam of the 2022 Tennis season is set to begin.

It feels like only yesterday we were dealing with the 'will he or won't he?' drama at the Australian Open surrounding Novak Djokovic's participation, but now we are more than halfway through the season.

Rafael Nadal has been the player who benefited the most from Djokovic's absence in Melbourne as he won his 21st Grand Slam title to move ahead of the Serb and Roger Federer, but he then doubled down by winning in Paris and the Calendar Slam remains a possibility.

In reality I think it will be very difficult, especially with the Nadal half of the draw loaded with the grass court threats that Novak Djokovic has avoided. The defending Champion has not lost a match at Wimbledon since 2017 having won the titles here in 2018, 2019 and 2021 and Novak Djokovic is the favourite to win a seventh title in SW19 to move alongside Pete Sampras and Federer.

He can play his way into the tournament and I think he will be the player to beat, although Matteo Berrettini may feel he can go one better than last season when beaten by Djokovic in the Final. That could be the Final in 2022 and I do think the Italian will be happier with his potential route to the Final much more than Rafael Nadal who heads up the bottom half of the draw.

A dark horse to make the big breakthrough could be Felix Auger-Aliassime and at around 16-1 I do think he will give you a real run for your money. However, the draw could have been much kinder with Maxime Cressy first up for the Canadian fresh off his run to the Eastbourne Final, and the likes of Taylor Fritz, Marin Cilic and Nadal make up a tough Quarter.


Iga Swiatek has quickly established herself as the best player in the world on the WTA side of the Tour since Ashleigh Barty abruptly retired and the World Number 1 is a clear favourite to win the Wimbledon title to add to the French Open crown won earlier this month.

The lack of grass court tennis to prepare is a bit of a concern for someone who is playing for just the third time at Wimbledon and who has previously lost in the First Round and the Fourth Round. There is a mental edge that Swiatek will hold over the rest of the field, but I think someone like Alize Cornet could be a potential problem in the Third Round as long as she has overcome whatever she was dealing with at the end of her Semi Final in Bad Homburg last week (I think it was cramp rather than anything more sinister).

There are some big names that could also be waiting to end the Iga Swiatek winning run, but most of those will be avoided until the Semi Final at the earliest, by which time Swiatek could be in supreme form.

Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep and a returning Serena Williams are all potential Semi Final opponents and all of those have won the Wimbledon title so know what it takes for grass court success.

Cori Gauff is another player who has shown she is well adept at playing on the grass and coming out of that Quarter of the draw will be a huge challenge. It may also mean Iga Swiatek is in a position to sweep off her Semi Final opponent if they have been taxed as much as they may be before they reach that final four stage.

The headlines will be initially all about Serena Williams and I do think the draw has given her a chance to play her way into the tournament. The early Rounds are not that intimidating and the American looked to be moving pretty well in Eastbourne, albeit with the help of a Doubles partner.

It would be the story of all stories if Williams was to return and win the tournament, but I think she will end up coming up short either in the Third or Fourth Round.

It feels like a top loaded draw at Wimbledon in the Ladies Singles, but there are some serious names in the bottom who will feel they have benefited from avoiding those mentioned.

Angelique Kerber is a former Champion here and continues to play strong grass court tennis, while Beatriz Haddad Maia has been the form grass court player of the summer and could not have hand-picked a much better draw for herself.

The Brazilian may have to deal with a solid grass courter in Belinda Bencic in the Third Round, but the latter had to withdraw from Berlin with an injury and may not be at 100%. With Anett Kontaveit the highest Seed in the Quarter, Beatriz Haddad Maia has to feel she has all of the tools to go very deep and I fully expect her to have her best ever Grand Slam result having never made it to the Third Round previously.

Beating Bencic may really open things up for Beatriz Haddad Maia, while I also think Jelena Ostapenko has a real opportunity here as a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist.

All of the journalists will be looking at Emma Raducanu, but injury and an awful First Round draw makes it hard to believe she can have as deep a run as 2021.

The favourite to come out of the section and reach the Final is Ons Jabeur, but she did not deal with the pressure very well in Paris, and I do wonder if she can cope this time. She does have a couple of Quarter Final runs at Grand Slams under her belt, but I think she is short enough as the second favourite to win the Wimbledon title.

Purely on the odds, Angie Kerber looks a massive price at 33-1 to win the title here and I certainly think she could have a very strong run having reached the Semi Final here last season and twice reaching the Final.


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Soon Woo Kwon: It has been a difficult season for Novak Djokovic beginning with the debacle around his participation at the Australian Open, while some of his team were a little critical of his performance in losing the French Open Quarter Final against Rafael Nadal.

He is the top Seed at Wimbledon in the third Grand Slam of the season after the decision had been made to ban Daniil Medvedev (and the other Russian and Belarusian players on the Tour), while Alexander Zverev misses out with an injury suffered in the French Open Semi Final. Novak Djokovic may feel he deserves his spot at the top of the Men's draw having won the Wimbledon title in each of the last three runnings of the event and he has won twenty-one straight matches in this part of London.

The Serb played an exhibition event last week to prepare for Wimbledon, but Novak Djokovic decided to avoid playing any competitive grass court tennis before opening Centre Court on Monday. While some players may need some time to get used to playing on the grass, it hasn't really affected Novak Djokovic in the past and he didn't play any warm up events before winning the title here in 2021.

He did drop the first set of his First Round match against young British hope Jack Draper twelve months ago, but Djokovic breezed through the next three sets. That was one of just two sets dropped at Wimbledon in 2021 and I do think we will see Novak Djokovic break into his stride pretty quickly on a court he will feel is his own these days.

First up for the top Seed is Soon Woo Kwon who has dropped into World Number 75 and who has been well beaten in both grass court matches played in preparation for Wimbledon. Soon Woo Kwon has struggled with his serve on the grass in those defeats with just 56% of service points won and that has led to holds in under 60% of service games played.

On a surface like grass, that is a pretty poor number, although I do think Soon Woo Kwon is a better server than he has shown in his defeats to Christopher O'Connell and Hugo Gaston this summer.

The serve has been put under pressure when Soon Woo Kwon has faced a top 50 opponent on the Tour in 2022 and the big problem for him is trying to recover breaks of serve. On the face of things you may not consider Novak Djokovic to be one of the top servers on the Tour, but it is a potent weapon for him and I do think the defending Champion is going to be putting this opponent under an immense amount of pressure during this match.

Novak Djokovic and Soon Woo Kwon met on the clay courts last season and the former crushed his opponent with five breaks of serve and only facing a single break point. Early Rounds of a Grand Slam can be difficult to cover numbers of this size on the handicap, but Novak Djokovic has won his last three First Round matches at Wimbledon by margins of 12, 8 and 11 game margins.

I am expecting Djokovic to earn the multiple breaks of serve needed to cover this mark and he can put down a marker as he begins the defence of the Wimbledon title for a fourth time in a row.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v James Duckworth: The injury sustained in Stuttgart looked to have come at a very bad time for Andy Murray after a couple of impressive weeks on the grass courts. He had decided to skip much of the clay court season in order to be well prepared for Wimbledon and reached the Final in Surbiton and Stuttgart and looked well on the way to being Seeded in SW19.

The injury in the Final in Stuttgart meant Murray had to withdraw from the tournament in Queens and some felt he may even be forced to miss Wimbledon, which would have been a major blow for the former World Number 1. The tennis looked to be in a good place in his two grass court tournaments and the positive noises coming from the camp have to be encouraging for Murray who has landed in a decent portion of the draw.

A big question for Andy Murray is whether the serve has been affected by the injury- he had been winning 70% of points behind serve and holding in 91% of service games played on the grass and the former Wimbledon Champion will be the first to admit how important it will be to serve well if he is going to have a real impact in the tournament.

At his best, Andy Murray was a hugely successful return player, but he has only been breaking in 18% of return games played on the grass this season. That is a mark that is someway below his 2021 numbers, and it is definitely an area that Andy Murray will want to improve here.

The First Round sees Murray paired with James Duckworth who has been plenty successful on the grass courts himself, albeit at a different kind of level than Andy Murray. This season has been a little disappointing for James Duckworth having lost three matches in a row before Qualifying for Eastbourne and being beaten in the First Round of the main draw there.

His defeats to Paul Jubb and Gilles Simon are particularly disheartening and James Duckworth has struggled with his return on the surface, while holding 83% of service games played. The problem for the Australian is that his numbers have largely been built around playing opponents outside the top 50 of the World Rankings and I expect him to have some reservations about playing an opponent like Andy Murray.

Their two previous matches have been won by the British player relatively comfortably.

Both of those were played a long time ago, but it was clear that Andy Murray was able to exert a lot of pressure on James Duckworth thanks to the serve and return. While his return has not been at the level of old on the grass in 2022, I do think the best of five set format gives Andy Murray a chance to build the pressure on James Duckworth over the course of this First Round match and the spread looks to be a game or two lower than where I had it.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniel Altmaier @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ryan Peniston - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Julie Niemeier - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Friday, 26 June 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (June 27-July 2)

Project Restart is all about getting the remainder of the 2019/20 completed in the top two Divisions in English Football and that means there are going to be matches every few days for teams through the month of July.

This week the latest round of Premier League fixtures are being played across six days with live offerings on each one. That is because it is also the weekend when the FA Cup Quarter Finals are played and so there is a situation where eight teams are playing twice in very short order and often against clubs who have had a few more days to prepare than they will at any other point through the next several weeks.

It does not make things easy for those of us playing the Fantasy Football game because injuries from the Cup or manager's rotating players in the League games to come could mean the eleven selected will need to be boosted by the bench. The problem is that usually we would have some inkling as to what managers will be thinking, but press conferences for the midweek games won't be taking place until at least two days after the deadline for GW32+ has already passed.

I will have further thoughts on the latest GameWeek below, but on top of that will be the thoughts on how the latest round of games may go. Those thoughts do have a real impact on how I want to set up my Fantasy team for the week.

Over the coming days I will add thoughts from the midweek set of Premier League games which are being made up by those clubs involved in the FA Cup Quarter Finals.

I fancy Manchester United, Sheffield United, Chelsea and Manchester City to make up the final four in the FA Cup, but I do think the last three Cup ties may all be highly competitive affairs.

And finally, I do know there has been a decisive moment in the Premier League in the last couple of days, but I couldn't care less and won't talk about it much... And that is most definitely the United fan in me speaking.


Aston Villa v Wolves Pick: One team is chasing a place in the top four and the other is simply chasing a place in the Premier League and that means there are a big three points on offer at Villa Park when Aston Villa host Wolves on Saturday lunchtime.

The majority of the League games in this round of fixtures will be played in midweek and so there is a big chance for these two clubs to put some real pressure on their rivals around them.

For Aston Villa things are most simple- a win would see them out of the bottom three and 3 points clear of the likes of Bournemouth and West Ham United below them. They have been a little unfortunate to not have more than the 2 points earned from three League games in the restart of English Football.

The underlying statistics have displayed the fact that Aston Villa have arguably created the better chances in each game and it is just a lack of a goalscorer which is letting them down. Defensively they do make mistakes which are proving to be costly, but they have limited the opportunities for Sheffield United and Newcastle United and Dean Smith has to be reminding his players how close they are coming to some real success.

Of course it is going to be far from easy against a Wolves team who could enter the top four if Chelsea have been beaten by Manchester City on Thursday. Regardless Nuno Espirito Santo will be looking for his team to make it three wins from three against clubs currently in the bottom four places after Wolves saw off West Ham United and Bournemouth with clean sheets in both games.

Defensively they have come out of the three month break with some real stubbornness that has become a feature of the Wolves team since the returned to the top flight under their Portuguese manager. They have simply not given West Ham United or Bournemouth much encouragement, but Aston Villa have looked a little more threatening than both of their relegation rivals.

And on the other side of the pitch, Wolves have relied on some magic from Adama Traore and clinical finishing of Raul Jimenez to earn the points they have. It would be foolish to criticise that combination, but Wolves have not been creating a lot of chances in their opening two games and that makes them vulnerable at short odds to win this fixture.

I think this is a real chance for Aston Villa who are unbeaten in 4 at home against Wolves and I do think they could earn an upset result. They are playing a little better than the results would indicate and Wolves have not dominated either match so having a strong start with the hosts is my feeling on the fixture.

I simply won't be surprised if Aston Villa avoid a defeat here on the form out of the break.


Watford v Southampton Pick: At this stage you would think Southampton have enough points to avoid relegation, but Ralph Hasenhuttl will be looking for his team to earn a big win on Sunday which would effectively confirm their spot in the top flight.

Make no mistake about, this is a huge game for Watford too who were beaten 1-0 at Burnley on Thursday. That follows a home draw with Leicester City, but Watford can't keep relying on the teams below them to falter as they have been and home form is going to be critical with the early signs from the Premier League being that the empty stands are not having the same kind of effect as they did in the Bundesliga.

In the next few weeks Watford host Southampton, Newcastle United and Norwich City and these are games they need to take advantage of. The short turnaround is a bit of a concern, but at least their opponent's also played in very hot weather on Thursday and Watford have been creating chances and playing well at Vicarage Road under Nigel Pearson.

They will need to be playing well to see off a Southampton team who have been better away from St Mary's in the Premier League. A 0-3 win at Norwich City to open 'Project Restart' has been followed by a 0-2 home loss to Arsenal, but Southampton have played some neat football in both games and have a player in Danny Ings who can be very clinical when the chances open up for him.

Both teams should want to be playing on the front foot and I do think it could lead to a decent game. Goals are slightly down on the small sample of games since the resumption of play, but Watford and Southampton have both created chances while looking vulnerable at the back.

They shared out three goals when meeting at St Mary's earlier in the season and both teams have scored in 3 straight meetings here. A 1-1 isn't out of the question, but Southampton have looked to be positive under Ralph Hasenhuttl and a point for Nigel Pearson is perhaps not the most suitable result either.

It should mean both are pushing for the three points and 8 of the last 10 between these clubs at Vicarage Road have ended with three or more goals scored. That is the direction I think this live Sunday fixture will be heading and my narrow lean is that Watford might come away with the three points.


Crystal Palace v Burnley Pick: There is no doubt that football being back is providing some entertainment for people in the United Kingdom on an almost daily basis, but some fixtures look to have all of the hallmarks of a tight, competitive affair with limited chances expected at either end of the pitch.

Crystal Palace versus Burnley looks to fit that mould, especially with the likes of Christian Benteke, Wilfried Zaha, Jay Rodriguez, Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes all looking like they may miss out.

Neither team is one that creates a lot of chances anyway, but when you remove that kind of attacking threat for both and it really becomes difficult to see where the goals will be coming from.

Even set pieces that both Roy Hodgson and Sean Dyche would look to take advantage of will be going into the defensive strengths of their opponents and I am expecting little action.

Those could be famous last words, but recent games for both have shown that chances come at a premium. Crystal Palace did have 4 clean sheets in a row before their thumping at Anfield, while Burnley had kept clean sheets in 2 of 3 away Premier League games before their own hammering but at the Etihad Stadium.

5 of the last 6 between Crystal Palace and Burnley have seen one or both teams fail to score including in the 0-2 win secured by The Eagles earlier this season. 8 of the last 9 at Selhurst Park between these clubs have done the same including the last 4 in a row and I think there is every chance that there will be at least one clean sheet in this game.

A single goal may be enough to take the three points, but picking a winner is not easy. I have to give a narrow edge to Crystal Palace who have won back to back games at Selhurst Park by the same 1-0 scoreline, but the empty stands and key injuries makes this a much more difficult game to pick a winner from.


Brighton v Manchester United PickFour points from six could easily have been maximum points for Brighton who missed a penalty at the King Power Stadium in a goalless draw with Leicester City. Despite that, Graham Potter has to be very glad of the 6 points that are now between Brighton and the bottom three and with seven games remaining it feels like The Seagulls are well on their way to a fourth consecutive season in the top flight.

Home games against Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City to come are going to be difficult for Brighton to negotiate, but they have beaten Manchester United twice in a row here. Brighton have also lost 1 of their last 6 at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League which includes earning a draw with Chelsea and beating Arsenal, while the players have had a week to recover and prepare for this fixture.

Under Graham Potter Brighton do create chances and they play with positivity and any points earned from this fixture would be bonus ones in the fight to avoid the drop. Defensively there are some questions, but they are facing a Manchester United team who have drawn 4 of their last 6 away games in normal time and all by the same 1-1 scoreline.

1-1 has been a popular score in recent Brighton home games and only a Neal Maupay injury time goal against Arsenal prevented 4 of the last 5 at the Amex Stadium finishing with that final score.

It does suggest 1-1 is a player in this League game despite Manchester United's 14 game unbeaten run. I have already mentioned the 4 draws in 6 away games in all competitions in normal time which includes visits to Club Brugge and Norwich City and Brighton are arguably as good or better than both of those.

Manchester United have a poor record here having lost on back to back visits since Brighton were promoted to the top flight and they have won 2 of their last 14 away games in the Premier League when set as the favourite.

That is a worry for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as he looks to push Manchester United back into the Champions League, but the recent performances have been encouraging. Breaking down Brighton won't be easy so it is important to make a fast start, but there have been enough chances in recent games at this Stadium to believe goals could be the outcome.

As alluded to above, 1-1 is a dangerous scoreline which would suit Brighton much more than Manchester United. All 4 of Manchester United's away draws in their last 6 on their travels have ended 1-1 in normal time, but an attacking line up will be selected and I do think Manchester United are creating enough to get at least one more here.

Even that may not be enough to win the game if Brighton are anything near as good as they can be under Graham Potter. There were four goals shared out when these teams met at Old Trafford back in November 2019, and I am going to be expecting at least three here. The chances in recent home/away games respectively for both teams suggest both can score and it may be an open encounter if the first goal comes in the first half hour of this one.


Bournemouth v Newcastle United PickFive of the final six games Bournemouth will be playing will be against clubs that are chasing European positions and so you have to feel that time is running out for them in their bid to escape the drop. Losses to Crystal Palace and Wolves without scoring a goal has to be a massive concern for a squad that might be missing Joshua King in a week where Callum Wilson is suspended.

This is not the time for excuses though and Bournemouth have had plenty of time to work on things ahead of what looks to be a winnable fixture at the Vitality Stadium. Eddie Howe has to be pleased his team have not lost touch with those sides above them despite the consecutive losses out of the restart, but games are running out and Bournemouth will really begin to fear the worst if they can't win this one.

It looks to be coming at a good time with Newcastle United essentially safe from relegation and having been chasing shadows for large portions of the late Sunday evening defeat to Manchester City. The FA Cup has been lost to Steve Bruce's men, but Newcastle United have to be respected with nothing to lose.

Motivation might be an issue, but some of these players are looking to prove they could be kept around if the rumoured takeover occurs at St James' Park. That should keep them honest and Newcastle United will believe they can take create chances here, although their own defence has not been nearly as effective away from home as it has at home.

Bournemouth are without key attacking talents, but they have generally been a team who do create chances in their own Stadium. The lack of fans is a blow for The Cherries, but excuses have to be left in the dressing room as they fight for their lives at the bottom of the table.

The last two times these teams have met at this ground have both ended 2-2 and I do think both will hit the net in this one too. With so much on the line for Bournemouth, I expect the last week to have been one in which they have worked on making sure they get things right in the final third and I expect the hosts to make this an open contest.

5 of the last 6 between these clubs have finished with three or more goals shared out including the last 2 at the Vitality Stadium. The assumption being made is that this one won't go the same way, but I am not sure that is the right thinking with Newcastle United showing they can score goals on their travels but conceding too many.

Chances in recent home/away games respectively suggest this one could go the same way as the recent trend indicates.


Arsenal v Norwich City PickA place in the FA Cup Semi Final will be welcomed by all associated with Arsenal, but Mikel Arteta will want to improve the League position and be in a position to earn a European spot through the final standings.

With the four that make up the Semi Final, Arsenal know they are likely to have two paths back into European competition. They could win the Cup and do that, but even if they don't, the final Europa League place looks set to fall down to 7th place in the Premier League and Arsenal are 2 points behind Tottenham Hotspur in that spot.

No one needs to get too far ahead of themselves and all Arsenal will want is to finish strongly and as high as possible in the Division. This looks like being one of the more straight-forward fixtures they are going to face down the stretch and Mikel Arteta will want a third straight win to give his players some momentum.

Following this home game against bottom club Norwich City, Arsenal play Wolves, Leicester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool so dropping points here could be fatal for Arsenal's European bid from their Premier League finish.

Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium and they have kept 3 clean sheets in those victories. They looked like they could be vulnerable from set pieces against Sheffield United and Brighton, but The Gunners have largely defended well enough in their last 3 games to believe they can control what has been a goal-shy Norwich City.

Only a Todd Cantwell strike has bothered the scoreboard since Norwich City returned to competitive action and the worry for Daniel Farke is the very small amount of chances created. That is a real worry for a team who have scored just 6 away goals all season and Norwich City are also going to have to deal with potential fatigue issues having played Extra Time with ten men on Saturday.

Timm Klose's suspension means the defence is missing yet another player and I think it would be a real surprise if Norwich City are able to contain Arsenal. They have only scored a single goal in their last 6 away Premier League games and unsurprisingly Norwich City have been beaten 5 times in that run.

This feels like a game in which Arsenal should be too strong and I would expect them to win the fixture. The defence can be a concern, but Arsenal may make it 4 clean sheets in 6 home Premier League games and that is the most likely outcome of this one in my opinion.


Everton v Leicester City PickAt this stage of the Premier League season games do take on added significance and this is a huge one for both Everton and Leicester City who are trying to fulfil European ambitions.

When the season kicked off in August 2019, Brendan Rodgers and Leicester City would have been very pleased with a Europa League spot in absolute honesty. A strong run in Autumn and Winter meant Leicester City were massively overachieving as they entered the top four and looked pretty secure in those positions, but Leicester City have looked like a club that have peaked.

1 win from 7 Premier League games is an indication of that and Leicester City are arguably fortunate to have escaped with draws against Watford and Brighton since the restart. With Chelsea, Wolves and Manchester United improving, Leicester City suddenly see just 3 points between them and 5th place and 6 points between them and 6th.

Games are far from easy to complete the season and a visit to an Everton side that are unbeaten in 9 at home in all competitions is another huge test. That is especially so when playing on Sunday in a tough Cup tie while Everton were resting and recovering and preparing for this one.

Everton have drawn 3 of their last 4 here, but one of those saw them inexplicably concede twice deep in injury time in a 2-2 draw with Newcastle United. A late VAR intervention prevented Everton beating Manchester United in a 1-1 draw and they had much the better chances in their goalless draw with Liverpool to restart their League campaign after the three month break.

Put all together it suggests Everton are a very dangerous prospect for Leicester City and there are real aims of finishing in the top seven which may be enough for a Europa League spot. Win this one and they would only be a point behind Tottenham Hotspur who currently hold 7th place and I do think Everton's numbers are impressive enough to be respected.

Carlo Ancelotti should have the team ready to go and I do think Leicester City are vulnerable. The Foxes did win 0-1 here last season, but Everton might be able to expose any fatigue that may be lingering in the Leicester City legs after losing to Chelsea on Sunday and I do think the home team might have enough to edge to the three points.


West Ham United v Chelsea PickDavid Moyes will likely have appreciated the additional time to get his West Ham United team refocused after their latest defeat in the Premier League. While the manager felt his team were hard done by in their defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United looked largely toothless and presented too many good chances for the hosts to pass up.

Defensively they were a little better when hosting Wolves, but West Ham United were dismissed that day too. The Hammers have been scoring more goals at home, but this is a team who have struggled defensively and it is not good news ahead of facing a Chelsea team that have only scored fewer away goals than Manchester City in the Premier League this season.

The 0-1 win at Leicester City will have given Chelsea another boost of confidence and they have now won 5 in a row including all 3 out of the three month break. They have created some very good chances, although there are always concerns about Chelsea at the back and especially if they are going to be missing Andreas Christensen this week.

It is difficult to see how West Ham United can exploit those vulnerabilities considering their recent performances. The squad look short of confidence and even the fact they have won 3 of their last 5 at home against rivals Chelsea is not really comforting at the moment.

The Hammers did win at Stamford Bridge earlier this season, but Chelsea look in a much better position now. Poor finishing cost Chelsea that day and recent games suggest that won't be the case now and I do very much believe The Blues win this one.

Chelsea had scored at least two goals in 4 away games in a row before the win at the King Power Stadium on Sunday. They should be able to hit at least two at the London Stadium against this West Ham United team and I expect that will be enough for Chelsea to maintain their gap to the Champions League chasing sides in 5th and 6th place. 


Sheffield United v Tottenham Hotspur PickThe restart to the Premier League season has not gone as planned for Sheffield United who have created very little and struggled for goals. They did finally look more threatening in their FA Cup tie against Arsenal, but even then Sheffield United were unable to secure a positive result and they have lost 3 in a row.

Chris Wilder will be proud of his players for the way the season has gone, but he will be demanding they don't end this season with a whimper. Being at home is a plus for Sheffield United if their performance against Arsenal is anything to go by and this Tottenham Hotspur team are far from watertight at the back.

Tottenham Hotspur did earn a clean sheet against West Ham United, but there were opportunities for the visitors that day. Jose Mourinho has had a lot of time to prepare his team for this difficult away game, but Tottenham Hotspur have looked anything but secure at the back and I think they will do very well to keep a clean sheet.

It is also hard to see Spurs at such a short price to win considering how they have been performing away from home before the break. You can't really read into form when the last away matches were so long ago, but Jose Mourinho has to be happy with his attacking options that are available for him now compared with March.

Those attackers will cause problems for Sheffield United who have not looked the same defensively without Jack O'Connell who could still be missing on Thursday.

Both teams hitting the net would not be a big surprise as was the case when these teams met in North London earlier this season. There should be chances and I am not sure why either manager would want to settle for a 1-1 draw considering they have ambitions of wanting to play in Europe next season.

An attacking game could quickly be in the making if we get another first half goal as we saw on Sunday and I think it could be a fixture that features at least three goals.


Manchester City v Liverpool PickThere are some real unknowns ahead of this Premier League fixture between the top two in England and that does make things a little murkier when writing out a prediction for how I anticipate things to go.

Both Manchester City and Liverpool may already be thinking about how best to prepare their squads for other things at this point of the season- the former want to win the FA Cup and Champions League while the latter will be thinking about how they can defend their title in the 2020/21 season and making sure the whole squad is ready to kick on immediately knowing there is limited time for 'pre season' this time around.

In saying that I do think both Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp will pick strong teams as they look to make a statement for the next season. The Spaniard will want to show his Manchester City team are ready to fight back having lost their grip on the title, while Klopp will want his team to show this season was anything but a flash in the pan.

Manchester City being at home should be an advantage, but Pep Guardiola's team have regularly found things difficult when facing Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool. The pace of the front three that the visitors have expose Manchester City's defensive shortcomings, but for large portions of matches here it is the home team who dominate the ball.

No Sergio Aguero is a blow, but Manchester City do have plenty of quality to call upon and I do think they have had time from Sunday to recover and put in a big performance.

They have been strong at home out of the break in play and you can't forget Liverpool were just struggling away from home when that break came. Even in their sole away game at Everton since then it was the home team who had the better chances and Liverpool have not scored in their last 4 away games in all competitions while losing 3 in a row before escaping with a draw at Goodison Park.

A draw is not out of the realms of possibility in this one, but I do think Guardiola will be telling his players they can at least prevent Liverpool from earning the points they need to break their record haul of 100 points set a couple of seasons ago.

That should be motivation for Manchester City who might be more focused than the Liverpool players celebrating being Champions and I believe that will lead to a narrow home win.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa + 0.75 Asian Handicap
Watford-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace-Burnley BTTS NO
Brighton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals
Bournemouth-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals

Arsenal Win to Nil
Everton 0 Asian Handicap
Chelsea to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Sheffield United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap



Fantasy Football GW 32+
99 points in GW30+ followed by 98 points in GW31+ is pretty much the perfect way for the FPL game to restart for my team, but this is when things are going to get a little more difficult.

With the Premier League title race already over, you can imagine the top two are going to be doing a lot of rotating over the coming weeks which means their top names might not be getting the minutes they would usually. Effectively it will be similar to a pre-season for those two clubs knowing there is likely going to be a very short break between the 2019/20 season and the 2020/21 campaign which is rumoured to start on September 12th.

That will mean the whole squad being managed, while there is also the issues that come with having games every three or four days that is going to be make it difficult for every manager in the Division.

It seeps down to us playing the FPL game and it is the main reason I have decided against playing my Free Hit Chip in GW32+ as I suggested I may do earlier this week.

Instead I am comfortable enough with my options for the starting eleven and knowing I have decent bench players to come in if they are needed. This is all very much with GW33+ in mind when I want to use the squad I have to play my Bench Boost on a weekend when Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool all host bottom five clubs and Manchester City play at Southampton.


In GW31+ it was the decision to Captain Anthony Martial that proved to be a huge reason I ended up with as many points as I did. His hat-trick as a midfield option in the game, but one who is playing up front in reality, was a huge boost and I also managed to secure the clean sheets from the defensive players targeted.

I was close to using a transfer this week to bring in a Burnley defender who have Crystal Palace away and Sheffield United at home in their next two games. I would have looked to replace my Newcastle United defender, Federico Fernandez, who are playing at Bournemouth just a couple of days after hosting Manchester City in the Cup. A rested Bournemouth team might cause more problems, but ultimately I feel it is not something I will end up doing so I can have two transfers to use in GW33+ if they are needed (injuries and suspensions could occur before that and I want fifteen players all getting minutes for the Bench Boost).

So at the time of writing and with not much time before the GW32+ deadline is locked down, this looks to be the team I am going with. I am toying with changing my Captain, but that might literally come down to a decision on Saturday morning moments before the deadline comes down.


Emiliano Martinez Arsenal (v Norwich): A cheap goalkeeper option opened up when Bernd Leno went down with an injury, but he does have to get through the Cup tie at Sheffield United.

Federico Fernandez Newcastle United (@ Bournemouth): This might have been a better looking game if Bournemouth did not have a full week to prepare and Newcastle United were not playing in the Cup on Sunday.

Harry Maguire Manchester United (@ Brighton): This has not been the best venue for Manchester United to visit of late, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has United in form and playing with confidence. Another who has to get through a Cup game before the Premier League outing.

Willy Boly Wolves (@ Aston Villa): My feeling is that Aston Villa can get a point out of this one, but I can't ignore the Wolves clean sheets in both games since the restart. I don't want to misjudge the early kick off and miss out on another if Wolves can keep the momentum behind them.

Kevin De Bruyne Manchester City (v Liverpool): There are four days between Manchester City's game at Newcastle United in the FA Cup and this Premier League game against Liverpool. I have to expect Pep Guardiola will pick a team to lay down a marker for the new season having lost his grip on the Premier League title.

Anthony Martial Manchester United (@ Brighton) [C]: A hat trick last time out and I have to expect the Frenchman to start here as Manchester United continue their push for the top four. Plays up front, and has scored in four of his last six Premier League games.

Bruno Fernandes Manchester United (@ Brighton): A kind fixture list, strong form, and a potential assist/goalscorer for Manchester United. Also on penalty duties.

Harvey Barnes Leicester City (@ Everton): This is a difficult game for a slumping Leicester City just a few days after a big Cup Quarter Final. Harvey Barnes has some strong underlying stats over his last few games, but I will be keeping an eye on him having not started last time out.

Mason Mount Chelsea (@ West Ham United): Has looked in good nick out of the break in play and Chelsea been creating chances and scoring goals. Mason Mount was a potential Captain choice, but yet another player having to complete a Cup tie and avoid injury.

Joelinton Newcastle United (@ Bournemouth): The home team are far from convincing at the back and have to take risks in a big fixture to try and avoid the drop. It could give Newcastle United some opportunities and Joelinton does find himself in good positions, even if he has had problems with his finishing.

Raul Jimenez Wolves (@ Aston Villa): As I have said above, I think Aston Villa have a chance in this game. However Raul Jimenez has proved to be clinical when the chances have come his way in the first two games since the restart and looks the biggest danger for relegation threatened Villa... A team who give up chances.

Bench- Alisson, Roberto Firmino, Virgil Van Dijk, James Justin

Thursday, 27 June 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 27th)

With just four days to go before Wimbledon gets underway the Seedings have been released, not without controversy, and the draws will be made on Friday morning.

Those players involved in the tournaments played in Antalya and Eastbourne will be focusing on finishing this week with a title as we are down to the Quarter Final matches at all of those events. The WTA event in Eastbourne is of particular importance as it could lay a marker for Wimbledon, while there are important Ranking points on offer in the two ATP events being played even if none of the players in the last eight are really expected to have a big showing in SW19 over the next couple of weeks.

Wednesday ended up being a successful day with two of the three completed Tennis Picks coming back as winners. I did have some fortune when Jelena Ostapenko retired after her early struggles, but the hope is that the Latvian is going to recover in time for Wimbledon and she only pulled out as a precaution after looking like she was struggling with her movement.

It has been a decent week so far, but I am looking to push on with the end of the tournaments before the full concentration can shift to Wimbledon. The first two Grand Slam events have provided positive numbers, but keeping that going will be the goal through another tournament.


Alize Cornet v Ons Jabeur: This is not the Quarter Final anyone would have expected when the draw was made last week, but both Alize Cornet and Ons Jabeur have deserved their spot in the last eight. The decision made by Ashleigh Barty to withdraw from the tournament has helped both of these players, but both have also beaten Seeded players and that should mean there is a real confidence in the play.

In each of the first three matches here so far this week, Ons Jabeur has been showing improvement and she comfortably dismissed an out of sorts Johanna Konta in the Third Round.

The serve has been working pretty effectively so far this week and Jabeur has also shown a little more impact on the return in Eastbourne. However the general numbers in 2019 on the grass courts have not been that impressive and I do wonder if Jabeur can keep up the standard she is at right now.

Like her opponent in this Quarter Final, Jabeur has not had a lot of grass court pedigree in recent years, but this is usually over a small sample of matches. Alize Cornet had also been struggling on the surface, but she has looked very good in Eastbourne and I do believe she is going to have the narrow edge.

The Frenchwoman has gotten more out of the first serve than Jabeur and she has also been returning more effectively with over 50% of return points being won. That number is significantly higher than Jabeur's 44% in Eastbourne, but the Tunisian has had the edge when it comes to the second serve and I do think that is going to make her very competitive.

However I think Cornet's performances should have seen her go into this Quarter Final as a stronger favourite than she is. I do have some reservations about backing Cornet because of her recent past of having a lack of success on the grass courts, but she has looked the better player this week and it has to be noted that Jabeur has also been exceeding her usual levels on this surface.

It might need three sets to separate them, but I will back Cornet to come out on top in this one.


Angelique Kerber-Simona Halep over 21.5 games: There is every chance a match like this one could be gracing Wimbledon at the business end of that tournament in two weeks time. Before we get to that, Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep will be looking to lay down a marker for the third Grand Slam of the season as they get set to face off in the Quarter Final in Eastbourne.

This is going to be the eleventh time Kerber and Halep are meeting on the Tour and the second time they are going to play each other on the grass courts. Matches between them have been very competitive and there really isn't a lot to separate them and half of their previous ten matches have needed to go the distance.

The sole meeting on grass took place at Wimbledon in 2016 and was won by Kerber in two tight sets as both players showed off their returning strength throughout that match. We could see more of the same on Thursday in this Quarter Final as both players are very comfortable on the return side of their game while perhaps not having the most telling of serves.

So far this week Angelique Kerber has had the edge when it comes to the serve as she has won plenty of points behind both first and second serves. Simona Halep has not had quite the same numbers, but she is serving well enough too and the Romanian will be looking at the 51% return points won compared to the 42% won by Kerber this week as being a potential difference maker in her favour.

Over the last couple of years I do think Kerber has been the superior grass court player of the two and she won the title at Wimbledon for the first time last season. The German is also a former Runner Up in SW19 and that does make her an appealing selection as the underdog in this match, although Halep has had the slight edge when it comes to the head to head and was a very close loser in their one previous grass court match.

My expectation is that we are going to see a close match and I would not be that surprised if a third set is needed to separate them as has been the case in half of their previous matches. Even two tight sets like they played at Wimbledon in 2016 will be enough to cover the total games line in this one and that is going to be my selection in this Quarter Final.


Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: There has been a vast improvement in the performances produced by Kiki Bertens on all surfaces over the last couple of years. She has reached a career high World Number 4 in the Rankings and Bertens has seemingly gotten over the real disappointment of having to pull out of the French Open in the Second Round in Paris.

The Dutchwoman had gone into the French Open as a real favourite to go on and win her first Grand Slam and it does feel like an opportunity was lost when you consider how that tournament panned out. But any lingering regrets have not been shown by Kiki Bertens as she reached the Final in Hertogenbosch and now the Quarter Final in Eastbourne on the grass courts.

This is a surface that has sometimes baffled Bertens, but she does have a game that you would think should translate onto it. A strong serve and an aggressive attitude is a good starting point for any player on the grass courts and it does feel like Bertens is beginning to put that together in the past three weeks.

Kiki Bertens has been in very good form in Eastbourne as she has won her two matches without too many worries and her numbers back that up. The first serve has been a potent weapon for her with plenty of points being won behind that shot both here and on the grass in general in 2019, but it is the 54% of return points won that have really propelled Bertens forward.

That side of her game is going to be tested by Aryna Sabalenka who reached the Final in Eastbourne last year. She was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in the Final in 2018, but earned a measure of revenge by overcoming the Dane in the Third Round on Wednesday although I do think Sabalenka is going to need to be even better if she is going to reach the Semi Final.

So far this week Sabalenka has been serving very well too, but she has not been able to return quite as effectively as Bertens. The returning is more productive than it has been in the last couple of weeks when Sabalenka suffered early losses in back to back tournaments so she should be a threat to Bertens, but the head to head is 3-0 in favour of the Dutchwoman and I do think the favourite can win this match and cover the number.

When they have played each other, the Bertens serve has been the stronger of the two players and I do think that is likely going to happen here. With a better return being shown in Eastbourne, Kiki Bertens can win and I will back her to come through to a second Semi Final in a row on the grass courts.

MY PICKS: Alize Cornet @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber-Simona Halep Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Troicki @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-4, + 3.88 Units (22 Units Staked, + 17.64% Yield)

Wednesday, 27 June 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 27th)

The ATP selections did not go that well on Tuesday, but all four WTA selections returned as winners which has put this week in a very strong position.

The last week at Roland Garros and the first three weeks on the grass have been a very productive time for the Tennis Picks and that has improved the season totals and also provided some momentum to take into Wimbledon.

Wednesday is another busy day in a week when the tournaments are looking for a Saturday finish, but that doesn't mean I have found many matches which fit my criteria. Some of the matches at the WTA Eastbourne tournament are worth taking a watching brief to build a better picture of Wimbledon so both of my selections come from the ATP events in Eastbourne and Antalya.

I hope they go better than the 1-2 record from the ATP Picks on Tuesday.


Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Kyle Edmund: After being off the Tour for almost exactly twelve months it was always going to be tough to know how Andy Murray would be feeling until he got back onto the court. A delay to his return was probably the best decision Murray could have made especially as he has returned to the Tour and looked in very good shape back on the grass courts.

There is little doubt that Murray is one of the best grass court players out there and he hasn't been given a chance to ease into his return having faced Nick Kyrgios and Stan Wawrinka in his two matches. The former World Number 1 has actually surprised himself with how well he has played in those two matches and it will be interesting to see how Murray's body reacts to a second match in three days which is the next step on his recovery to full time tennis.

Murray did admit to feeling sore for 24 hours after his first match back last week in Queens, but that is nothing out of the ordinary when you think of how long he had been off the Tour and not playing competitive tennis.

While his participation in Wimbledon is far from assured at this point, Murray has shown he is very comfortable back on the grass courts. The numbers behind serve have been better than expected and even more impressive has been the way he has returned and I think he puts plenty of pressure on the current British Number 1 Kyle Edmund.


As well as Edmund has played since Murray has been off the Tour it still has to be pointed out that he is not completely at ease on the grass courts. Edmund is a decent returner, but he has not always produced his best serving on the surface and Murray is an opponent who can expose those vulnerabilities.

Make no mistake about it that both players will be desperate to win this one but I do like Murray's superior grass court pedigree to make the difference in a close match. There is the obvious concern about his fitness and whether he is ready to play again after being out on the court on Monday, but Murray sounds happy with his progress and I think he is able to do enough to win this match and cover the number in a tough Second Round match for both players.


Marius Copil v Damir Dzumhur: It is Marius Copil who is Ranked considerably lower than Damir Dzumhur but the layers are right to think that this could be a very tough match to predict. That is because Copil has shown to be much happier on the grass courts compared with Dzumhur and I think a big serving day will help the Romanian move into the Quarter Final at the ATP Antalya event being played this week.

Last year Dzumhur did show some effective serving on the grass courts, but generally it has been a shot that can be vulnerable on this surface. Unlike so many other players on the Tour, Dzumhur can't expect to get a lot of free points behind his serve and that means he has to work much harder to hold onto his serve.

This is only the second match on the grass in 2018, but Dzumhur had his issues holding serve against Grigor Dimitrov who is a big name player, but one who can't be considered a top returner. Prior to 2017 Dzumhur has had some real problems when it comes to the percentage of games where he holds serve and on a surface like and against an opponent like Copil it could be the difference maker.

It does have to be said that Copil's return is not his strength and I do wonder if he will be able to get his teeth into enough return games to put Dzumhur under pressure. He can try and build some scoreboard pressure by serving effectively and making Dzumhur feel a little edgy as he tries to stay with his opponent.

There is no doubt that Dzumhur's return game is what has made him a player that has moved deep within the top 50 in the World Rankings, but he has yet to really find hi groove on that front on the grass courts. Against this serve it may be very difficult for Copil to change that and I am going to back the lower Ranked player to work his way through this match in what has been set as a pick 'em contest.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marius Copil @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-4, + 8.48 Units (26 Units Staked, + 32.62% Yield)

Monday, 26 June 2017

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 27th)

The tennis Tour has moved across to Great Britain, as well as some other European destinations, over the grass court season in preparation for Wimbledon. We have been fortunate in getting plenty of clear weather to allow these tournaments to get through the matches they have scheduled, but that may not be the case on Tuesday this week.

It looks like the rain in going to arrive in Eastbourne from around 2pm on Tuesday which is likely to cut short the play where there are plenty of Second Round matches scheduled from the WTA event as well as the completion of the First Round from the ATP event in Eastbourne.

Novak Djokovic is likely to have the space to complete his own Second Round match which opens the main court play from 11am, but some of the players later in the day have to prepare themselves for double play on Wednesday when things look a little clearer.


So it sounds like John McEnroe ruffled some feathers with his comments about Serena Williams on Monday, although only those who have offered his comments out of context are getting the silly responses. McEnroe basically told a reporter he did not call Serena Williams the 'best tennis player' in the world instead of his use of 'best female tennis player' because she would not be Ranked in the top 700 of men's tennis.

For some that caused an outrage including calling McEnroe sexist, but only an idiot would disagree with him to put it bluntly. It seems like you can't just call a spade a spade these days.

Serena Williams would not beat anyone in the top 500 of men's tennis on a consistent enough basis to be Ranked much higher than where McEnroe suggested. Only fools who don't understand tennis would disagree with that and this really is a total non-story when you realise his comments have been extracted and then used out of context.

Someone was even dumb enough to suggest Serena would beat Nick Kyrgios, but ultimately looked the bigger fool.

I don't get why people get so upset when people say that the women's players would not be able to compete with the men? It seems to be the only sport where people tend to really get upset about it, but it makes no sense to me at all.

Poor Johnny Mac mustn't know what all the fuss is about, but this kind of story seems to pop up every few months or so.


The tennis picks made a decent start to the week on Monday with a 5-3 finish, but it perhaps should have been a lot better if not for a couple of bad luck moments. That happens and I am looking for the momentum to build on Tuesday even if not all the matches I am picking from can make it through to completion past the expected rain delays.


Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Steve Darcis: Both of these players have shown they can spark on the grass courts at various times throughout their careers, but I am looking to the big hitting that comes from Fernando Verdasco to be too much for Steve Darcis.

The latter has at least won one match here which could make this a closer match than initially anticipated, but Darcis was perhaps a little fortunate to get past Denis Istomin. He doesn't have the big serve to put opponents on the back foot, not even on the grass courts, and someone like Verdasco should have his chance to dictate the tempo of the match.

The lefty Spaniard has a decent first serve which he can use to set up his points, although Verdasco is no longer the player of old and can be very inconsistent. Verdasco has played well on the grass though and his losses have come against some of the better players on the surface which means he is a danger to all in this draw in Antalya this week.

Generally Verdasco won't run into the very top grass players here and I think he can get his week off to a solid start with a win over Darcis. This is a new tournament so it may take Verdasco a little time to find his rhythm here, but the courts are expected to play well having taken advice from Wimbledon as to best prepare them for the event.

It should mean Verdasco can find his feet after a few games and I think that will help him control the match behind his serve and big forehand. I like Verdasco to find his way to a 7-5, 6-4 win in this one.


Mischa Zverev - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: The grass courts should be very much what Mischa Zverev is appreciating after a rough time on the clay and he has had some solid results on the surface over the last couple of weeks. A rare serve-volley exponent is tough to break on this surface and I think he can get off to a positive start in Eastbourne on Tuesday.

The conditions are tough for players to try and rally from the back of the court when the wind picks up, but Zverev backs up a strong first serve with nice volleys. For opponents it is a blast from the past that they are not used to seeing and Zverev will look to get to the net as much as possible when he takes on Ryan Harrison in the First Round.

The American is another who will be glad to be off the clay courts, but Harrison's best results tend to come on the hard courts these days. Harrison has actually lost his last eight main draw matches on the grass courts and he hasn't lit things up at the lower levels or Qualifiers either having gone 4-11 on grass since reaching Wimbledon in 2014.

Harrison has had a good season overall as he is set for his most wins on the Tour since 2012 and he has also won titles in 2017. However he still has a tendency to throw in a couple of loose service games and Zverev has been returning well enough over the last two weeks to think he can take advantage of those lapses in concentration.

I think that will lead to Zverev finding a way to come through this match with a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Over the last two years Daniil Medvedev has shown the improvement he has made on the grass courts as his competition have stepped up. Medvedev reached the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch having come through the Qualifiers and then did the same at a loaded Queens event which shows this young player gets how to play on the green stuff.

One concern has to be the shoulder issue which was bothering Medvedev at the end of his run in Queens and I think that may give Sam Querrey enough of an edge to come through with a win and a cover of this number.

The American was also a Quarter Finalist in Queens last week and Querrey has shown his game works well on the grass with a big serve and heavy forehand combination the key to his success. He had a mixed preparation for Wimbledon last year, but Querrey was a Quarter Finalist in SW19 where he famously beat Novak Djokovic.

Querrey has regularly made the Quarter Final or later in this preparation events on the grass, although his return of serve remains sketchy to say the least. He is also a former winner at Queens back in 2010, but Querrey's biggest strength in this match up may be his steadiness behind the serve which can lead to errors from his opponents.

With the shoulder potentially bothering him, Medvedev is capable of throwing in a poor service game which gives Querrey the chance to pounce. That is what I am expecting as the pressure on the scoreboard increases and I can see Querrey coming through with a 7-6, 6-4 win in this one.


Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: On a grass court this number of games can be tough to cover simply because of the limited chances that some players will get to break serve. However Jeremy Chardy has been returning well enough over the last couple of weeks to think he can beat a disinterested Dusan Lajovic who could be said to 'hate' the grass court season.

While most players will consider this the time of the season to build up some grass court preparation, Lajovic has played a couple of clay court Challengers since the French Open. He didn't play badly having reached the Semi Final in Todi last week, and I can't say I blame Lajovic who has a 1-13 record on the grass courts in his career.

The Lajovic serve isn't that bad, but he clearly can't find his rhythm on the surface and it isn't a serve that will earn enough cheap points to get through games. With Chardy returning as he has been, I would expect him to put the Serbian under pressure while Chardy has been serving big enough to be effective in a match like this one.

Chardy has played some solid grass court players over the last couple of weeks and it has taken Feliciano Lopez to stop runs in Stuttgart and Queens. Those losses don't look bad since Lopez won the title in Queens, especially as Chardy took a set off of him back in Stuttgart.

I would expect Chardy to have the majority of the better tennis played in this one and I would think he can earn the break points to put together a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There may be some big things tipped for Frances Tiafoe, but he is yet to really discover the best way to approach grass court tennis. Facing one of the better grass court players out there will make it very difficult for Tiafoe and I think Richard Gasquet will eventually make that tell on the scoreboard.

The question of motivation for Gasquet may come up as the week goes on after a strong run in Halle was ended in the Semi Final at the hands of Alexander Zverev. With Wimbledon around the corner, it will be interesting to see how much Gasquet wants another long run in an event considering some of the injuries he had, although he wouldn't have entered this event unless he wants to put some wins together.

He should have every chance to get the first of those on Tuesday in the First Round as Tiafoe looks to improve his 3-4 record on the surface. None of those matches have come against someone who is as effective on the grass as Gasquet and you can't ignore the fact that Tiafoe has been beaten comfortably in the four losses he has taken on the surface.

Protecting the second serve has proved a problem in his matches on the grass and I think that may be an issue for him in this one too. The young American is likely to face being given a lesson from the quality of tennis that Gasquet brings and I am expecting the latter to produce a solid win on the day.

Gasquet can serve well enough to keep the pressure on Tiafoe and I think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-3 win on the day.


Donald Young - 2.5 games v Jared Donaldson: It seemed like most people on Twitter on Monday morning had backed Donald Young to get past Kyle Edmund and they were rewarded when the American won the final four games of the match. It wasn't an easy winner after Young actually lost more points and didn't return as well as he would have liked, but he can ride the momentum of that win with another in the Second Round.

This time he faces compatriot Jared Donaldson who has employed two former American stars in Jan-Michael Gambill and Mardy Fish to aid him going forward. Donaldson had a real battle on his hands to get through his First Round match against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman where, like Young, he actually lost more points but won the match.

It was a rare positive result on the grass courts for Donaldson and I am not sure he is going to be able to back that up against Young. These two met on the grass courts of Newport last year in what was a comfortable win for Young in straight sets and the latter has shown more appetite for this surface than his younger compatriot.

The Donaldson serve has not been as effective as he would have liked on this surface and I think Young is able to capitalise on that. Of course you have to say that Young's serve is far from secure in what are likely to be difficult conditions, but I would look for him to back it up a little more effectively of the two players.

It could go three sets, but Young's better returning stats should show up in a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win for the older American.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Lauren Davis: There was some relief for Agnieszka Radwanska when the clay court was officially over and she is back on a much more favoured surface now. The foot injury she has had has bothered her in 2017 and seen some poor results being produced, but Radwanska is more comfortable on the grass courts than many players on the Tour.

One of those is Lauren Davis who has benefited from being a 'Lucky Loser' back into the draw this week in Eastbourne. She took advantage to move into the Second Round but the American has not enjoyed her time on the grass courts.

You can see the problem for Davis whose serve can be attacked with real gusto on this surface as opponents are able to power through the court. Radwanska may not have the power to do that, but she can put the ball into difficult spots which can allow her to get up to the net and also use the drop shot to bring players less comfortable at the net further forward in the court.


The Davis return game is solid enough and she should have some joy against Radwanska's serve, especially as the Pole has been out of a competitive match since the end of May. However the overall grass court stats don't make for good reading for Davis either in 2017 or overall in her career.

After a few games to get back her edge, Radwanska can fight her way to a 7-5, 6-3 win.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: There was some bad blood between Romania and Great Britain in a Fed Cup tie earlier this year with the main issues coming during and after a match between Sorana Cirstea and Johanna Konta. I don't think there will be too many in the Eastbourne stands ready to remind Cirstea of some of the negative comments she made about Konta in a press conference after the match, but I am sure Konta hasn't forgotten them.

Now they meet on a grass court in Konta's home town where she has produced her best tennis on this surface. A decent showing over the last couple of weeks would have given Konta some confidence, but Cirstea is back in the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and is capable of producing some top grass court tennis.

She was a Quarter Finalist in Mallorca in 2016 but generally her time on the grass has seen her come up short against opponents. When Cirstea builds momentum she can be difficult to stop, but Konta should be able to return effectively enough to put the pressure on her opponent in this one.

Konta has some decent returning numbers over the last couple of weeks and Cirstea is someone who can make a number of errors behind her serve which should give the British Number 1 every chance of winning this match. The Konta serve has also been in pretty good shape in her matches in Nottingham and Birmingham and overall she should have enough of an edge to beat Cirstea by a wide enough margin to cover this number of games.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Barbora Strycova: The grass has proved to be a difficult surface for Garbine Muguruza in general, but she had a good run in Birmingham last week and is a former Finalist at Wimbledon. A poor 2017 has dented some of the confidence, but I think Muguruza does get the better of Barbora Strycova in the Second Round here in Eastbourne.

There is room for improvement behind the serve from the limited stats we have in 2017 on this surface, but Muguruza does have a first serve that will give Strycova some real problems to deal with. The Spaniard has returned effectively enough too and I do think that sets her up for success in this one.

As well as I believe Strycova can play on the grass courts, she has been a little erratic with her play and the serve is not working as effectively as it might. That is so important to the outcome of this match as Strycova cannot really rely on breaking Muguruza consistently and allowing her last two opponents to win 41% or better of the points behind her own serve is not going to cut it.

Strycova does play well on the surface which means she will create chances against the Muguruza serve if the latter is not quite at her best. The second serve is where Strycova will look to get her points, but Muguruza's ability to produce the big serve could prove to be a difference maker overall.

I would expect the bigger hitting players to cause problems for Strycova and I am looking for Muguruza to be able to do the same. The Spaniard should have enough power to edge her way through with a 7-6, 6-3 win in this one.


Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Naomi Osaka: I backed Lucie Safarova to beat Naomi Osaka last week but this is a different kind of match for the latter. There is still learning being done by Osaka on the grass courts and facing someone like Caroline Wozniacki who has earned her wins on the surface could be a step too far in Eastbourne this week.

Osaka has some factors that work for her with the most notable being the fact that Wozniacki is playing her first grass court match of the week. However the conditions in Eastbourne tend to be difficult and I think Wozniacki will be able to play her way in as she looks to extract errors from the Osaka game.

The power will come from Osaka as she displayed when brutally moving past Risa Ozaki in the First Round, but I would expect the counter punching of Wozniacki to leave Osaka in some awkward spots around the court. The returning stats have not been that impressive from Osaka either and Wozniacki can get some pop out of her serve on this surface which should mean she has enough of an edge in both serve and return games.

Big hitting players have given Wozniacki some real problems on the grass in the past as her losses have highlighted. While Osaka is in that mould, her confidence with her movement on the surface is perhaps not where it needs to be to cause an upset and I think the frustration of trying to penetrate the Wozniacki defences consistently may lead to more and more mistakes.

After a tight opener where Wozniacki rediscovers her movement on the grass, I can see the former World Number 1 running away with the match in a 7-6, 6-2 win.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Donald Young - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.22 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.13% Yield)