Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 31-February 1)

There has been some criticism of the kind of teams that some of the Premier League teams put out in the FA Cup Fourth Round which led to a few upsets, but I am not sure what people are moaning about to be absolutely honest. It has been clear for a number of years that the FA Cup does not have the same appeal as it once did on the football calendar and the money in performing in the Premier League is significantly more than you will earn for winning the FA Cup these days.

With the games coming thick and fast at this time of the season, I am not surprised that managers will make changes. I am surprised that so many have been so upset by that though, including Alan Shearer, who can make such judgements without the pressure of being a manager in the position to make the big decisions. On the face of things you would think teams would want to play their best to win the Cup, but how can Walter Mazzarri make that decision with just one day rest between the Cup tie and a League one against Arsenal?

The upsets have been good for the Cup as it will have more headlines being grabbed than perhaps if all the top teams had made it through to the Fifth Round. There are still five of the top six Premier League teams in the FA Cup, who all avoided one another in the draw for the Fifth Round, and so some of the complaints and criticisms I have seen seem to be missing the point.


On Tuesday and Wednesday this week we have a full round of Premier League games, the first of four rounds of games in February. This is a big month coming up as the European competitions resume in the Knock Out Rounds, the FA Cup moves through the Fifth Round and the first domestic silverware of the season is handed out in the English Football League Cup.

February might be the shortest month of the calendar year, but there are going to be plenty of football matches to enjoy throughout the month and hopefully the picks will also be better than they have been.

The last two months have been difficult, but there is still lots of the season to go.


Arsenal v Watford Pick: This is a big week for Arsenal if they have real ambitions to win the Premier League title and of course the bigger match for them is later in the week when they face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Win both League games this week and Chelsea fail to win at Anfield and Arsenal will be right back in things.

It is up to Arsenal to try and concentrate on their own matters and they have been playing well enough in recent games to think they can beat Watford fairly comfortably at The Emirates Stadium. The away side have been struggling in recent weeks to earn positive results and Watford have been conceding too many goals which has to be a concern for a team that still has plenty of work to do to reach the 40 point mark in the Premier League.

Watford have conceded at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games and they will have some problems containing an Arsenal team who have scored 18 goals in their last 6 games in all competitions.

Arsenal have scored at least three times in their 3 Premier League games against Watford over the last eighteen months and I think they could have a strong showing in this one too. All of their wins over Watford in the League in that time have come by at least two goals and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to just keep the pressure up on the League leaders Chelsea who have a difficult trip this week to Anfield.


Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Pick: There has been some criticism for Sam Allardyce that his Crystal Palace team are being asked to play on the same day as the January transfer window closes as he is still looking for reinforcements to his squad. It has been a tough opening six weeks as manager of The Eagles for Allardyce as he tries to maintain his record of not suffering a relegation from the Premier League.

The expectation is that Crystal Palace had simply been underachieving before Allardyce came in, but they have suffered some really bad results under his guidance. The side have slipped into the bottom three after the last round of Premier League games and they have to start winning soon to avoid being potentially cut off from the safety zone.

That makes this a big game for Crystal Palace when they head to a Bournemouth team who have been strong at home, but also inconsistent. This does feel like a good chance for Crystal Palace to earn a result because Bournemouth have been conceding goals at an alarming rate, although they have had a few days off to try and get things organised at the back.

However the style of play means Bournemouth are always going to give their opponents a chance and I think Crystal Palace have enough in the final third to offer some problems. On the other hand I would expect Bournemouth to create chances as Crystal Palace have yet to really pick up the defensive organisation that Sam Allardyce is known for from his time with the likes of Bolton Wanderers and Sunderland.

It is a difficult game to pick a winner because of the uncertain performances both clubs have been producing of late, but it does feel like a game where there should be chances at both ends. I do think there is enough in the final third to make use of those chances and I am looking for this game to finish with at least three goals shared out on Tuesday.


Burnley v Leicester City Pick: Recent seasons have seen Leicester City regularly visit Turf Moor and leave with the three points, but this one feels like it could be very different. This season Burnley have played very well at Turf Moor and have won their last 6 games here while only conceding 3 goals in that time, while Leicester City have yet to win an away game in the Premier League.

There have been some improvements in the away results which might make Leicester City more of a threat than their record would indicate. However winning here has proved to be a challenge for any team that visits and I think Burnley have the confidence to keep their run going.

I just don't think Burnley should be an underdog in this game when you see how well they have played at Turf Moor. Leicester City have come from behind to earn draws at Stoke City and Derby County over the last few weeks but Burnley might be a little more solid and complete the win.

However I will take the home team on the Asian Handicap which is essentially pricing up Burnley at odds against in what is a 'Draw No Bet' market. Burnley have been very good at home all season and they are in a very good vein of form at Turf Moor and that looks a big price when you consider how well Burnley have played here.


Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: David Moyes has to be feeling the pressure of trying to turn around Sunderland's season and the lack of financial backing has frustrated the manager. There have been a couple of big players leaving the club and new faces have yet to arrive in time for this League game and Sunderland have a squad stretched by injury and suspension.

It is going to be very difficult for Sunderland to keep Tottenham Hotspur contained as the big players will be back in the starting line up for Mauricio Pochettino's side. They have scored at least twice in their last 3 away Premier League games and I think Tottenham Hotspur can extend their run of 4 wins from 6 visits to The Stadium of Light.

Sunderland have lost half of their 6 home League games by more than a single goal margin and they have conceded goals at an alarming rate once they start to struggle. This might be a defence that is vulnerable to Tottenham Hotspur who have shown they can be very dangerous in front of goal and I do think they can come out with a fairly routine win on Tuesday.

I will back Tottenham Hotspur on the Asian Handicap on Tuesday.


Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: This is a huge Premier League game for both Liverpool and Chelsea, but you have to think the Anfield crowd are expecting a reaction after three terrible results here. Going out of both Cup competitions has been a blow to their chances of ending the year with silverware and it is going to be hard work to get into the Champions League places if they can't turn around their form very quickly.

Over the years this is the kind of game most big clubs would want to get back to winning ways, but Liverpool have had their confidence dented. Sadio Mane's return might not have come quick enough to play from the start in this one and Liverpool's defence continues to show huge vulnerabilities.

That defence should be exposed by the attacking talent Chelsea posses, but I do think Liverpool will create chances too as most of their top names were held out on Saturday in the defeat to Wolves. As well as Chelsea have played defensively for much of this season, away games at Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have seen them give away plenty of goals and Liverpool have the power in the final third to have success too.

It would be a surprise if Chelsea were not able to create their own chances and score goals too and I did consider backing the League leaders to avoid defeat by backing them on the 'Draw No Bet' market at odds against. However Chelsea's two away League defeats have come at Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur and they should have been beaten at Manchester City too.

Instead I will back there being at least three goals shared out between these teams like there were at Stamford Bridge. That has been priced up at odds against and the score that would worry me the most would be 1-1 like the last couple of games at Anfield have finished between these two teams.

However I think there should be enough opportunities at both ends to see the chances created to find a winner if that is the case and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: If you are simply judging games on results then it looks clear that Manchester City have been having something of a rough patch and West Ham United might be in a decent form. The Hammers have scored three times in each of their last couple of games which have resulted in six points, while Manchester City were beaten 4-0 in their last away game at Everton.

However a deeper look shows that West Ham United were perhaps a little fortunate in both of their wins. On the other hand, Manchester City might be coming in with 4 wins from 5 games in January if they had held onto their 2-0 lead over Tottenham Hotspur where some key decisions had gone against them in the 2-2 draw.

Manchester City are only a few weeks removed since they beat West Ham United 0-5 here in the FA Cup on a day when they were clearly the better team. They have shown they can dominate games but have to be a little better in the forward areas while the defence remains a work in progress under their new manager.

As much as West Ham United have shown some improvements, they are still not playing as well as last season and this is a team that can lose their way when they do concede goals. They have won 3 of their last 5 here, but around those results have been comfortable losses to Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City.

The 0-3 win for Manchester City at Crystal Palace came even though they rested the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero and I think the away side can back that result up. West Ham United are playing better, but I expect Manchester City to dominate the ball and create enough chances to win this one by more than a one goal margin and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Manchester United v Hull City Pick: These two teams might have become a little familiar with one another over the last couple of weeks with this being their third game against one another since January 10th. It is a big task for Hull City to earn a result against Manchester United at Old Trafford, but they have proven they can be tough to beat and this is likely to be a match where the home fans will get a little nervy if Manchester United haven't broken the Hull City resistance going into the second half.

Marco Silva has to be given credit for toughening up a Hull City team that had been struggling before his arrival, but he is looking for some new faces to give them a bit of quality in the final third. Losing Robert Snodgrass feels like a blow to their chances to avoid the drop, but Hull City have made life difficult for Manchester United and Chelsea in away games since Silva arrived as manager.

They have made life difficult but ended up losing both by the same 2-0 scoreline and that feels like the most likely outcome of this one. Manchester United have not kept as many clean sheets in the League as they would have liked, particularly at Old Trafford where they have conceded in 5 of their last 6 Premier League games here.

However, Manchester United did earn that clean sheet against Hull City in the League Cup Semi Final and have had 3 in 4 games at Old Trafford in all competitions. Hull City have scored 1 goal in their last 7 away games in the Premier League and I will back Manchester United to win this game with a clean sheet on Wednesday.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

January Update: 30-42-1, - 24.98 Units (150 Units Staked, - 16.65% Yield)

December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (January 31-February 1)

It has been a busy week with the Australian Open taking most of my attention as well as the Super Bowl, from which I will have my pick up on Saturday evening which is a day before the big game. That means the Weekend Football picks have had to take a back seat somewhat after the surprises of last weekend in the FA Cup Fourth Round which saw some of the biggest names in English football humbled.

Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool were all either beaten or failed to win in the Fourth Round and that has opened up the FA Cup to 'lesser lights'. However, the favourites remain Arsenal along with Manchester United and Liverpool, the latter two playing replays this week, and the Fifth Round draw has suited the former two teams as they face lower League opposition.


Hull City v Newcastle United Pick: The last time Hull City hosted Newcastle United, all of the headlines were about Alan Pardew and his inexplicable reaction in trying to headbutt David Meyler. I still remember being confused even more by the fact that Newcastle United were winning that game and couldn't figure out what must have gone through Pardew's head.

The pantomime villain won't be in town on Saturday having moved to Crystal Palace to take over as manager at Selhurst Park, but John Carver will bring Newcastle United here having been assured he will manage the club until the summer at least. It will be like a four month job application for Carver, who is desperate to be given the permanent job at St James' Park, and that means trying to ensure Newcastle finish as high up as possible.

They have struggled away from home in recent weeks, but the 2-0 defeat at Chelsea doesn't tell the full story as Newcastle created plenty of chances. If they can replicate that at the KC Stadium, the Magpies can certainly pile some more pressure on Geordie Steve Bruce.

Injuries have been a big problem for Bruce through the season, but he will have the services of Nikica Jelavic, Gaston Ramirez and Abel Hernandez to give Hull City a little more bite up front. Against West Ham United, Hull City missed their composure in front of goal in the 3-0 defeat as they did create the chances to get something out of that game.

Goals have been in short supply for both of these sides at home/away respectively this season, but I think this game could reverse that trend. For example, Newcastle United have conceded at least twice in their last 3 away games in the Premier League, albeit against the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea.

They are playing a Hull City team which is missing a couple of defenders so they will believe they can hurt them on the counter attack and the three games between these teams over the last eighteen months have featured at least 4 goals in each. At the prices, backing at least three goals being shared looks big and might just pay off if both defences are still struggling a little after a two week break.


Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: Look at the recent form of these two teams and try and tell me that the prices for the home/away wins are not based on previous achievements of these sides- how else would Everton be favoured to win at an in-form Crystal Palace?

It has been a difficult second season for Roberto Martinez at Everton where he has not been helped by injuries to unsettle his line up. However, a bigger concern for the fans have to be some of the defensive performances of Everton that bring back memories of Martinez' Wigan Athletic in the Premier League and it does feel they are perhaps lacking a plan B at the moment.

On the other hand, Crystal Palace have been reinvigorated by Alan Pardew's arrival at the club and their belief and determination has been evident from 3 wins in a row despite trailing in all of those games. Dwight Gayle feels wanted and is scoring the goals that Neil Warnock didn't believe he had and Palace have an abundance of pace in forward areas that will cause Everton problems.

It is a shame they are still missing Mile Jedinak and Yannick Bolasie, but Pardew has still found the right formula to win games and I think the pressure is all on Everton to turn around their own form. That has seen them slip into a potential relegation fight that is getting tighter in each passing week, while Everton have lost 5 straight away games in the League.

That run is bound to end sooner or later, but Crystal Palace look a huge price to make it 6 Premier League losses in a row on their travels for Everton. I'd only keep a small interest in this game because of the fact that Palace have been behind in their last 3 games and continuing to dig deep and win games is tough, but I still believe the home side should not be the underdog in this one.


Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: This looks like being one of the more entertaining games of the weekend with both Liverpool and West Ham United in decent form and both managers taking an attacking approach in their tactical decisions. Sam Allardyce might be tempted to make life difficult for Liverpool from the off, but he has taken an attacking approach at Manchester United and Everton earlier in the season and I will say the performance at Chelsea was due to the busy festive period.

There is also no real reason for Allardyce to fear a Liverpool team which has conceded goals regularly at home and one that Andy Carroll will be desperate to impress against. Carroll didn't have a good time while playing for Liverpool, but he has been a real handful of late and the return of Diafra Sakho from injury is another bonus.

However, Allardyce will also want to be careful not to ask his side to push on too much considering the chances that Liverpool have begun to create again. This has resulted from a change in the system and the return of Daniel Sturridge may just give Brendan Rodgers a regular source of goals.

For all the good positions Liverpool found themselves in against Chelsea in the Capital One Cup Semi Final, you do feel that someone like Sturridge would have made the difference in front of goal and the return from injury couldn't have come soon enough.

Liverpool have had a lot of draws at home and are facing a West Ham United team that has scored plenty on their travels during the course of the season. However, I can see Sturridge perhaps coming off the bench and making the difference in this one and improving Liverpool's recent form against West Ham United at Anfield by helping them win their fourth game in five against them.

The attacking philosophy of West Ham United this season has resulted in the side scoring in every away League game outside of Stamford Bridge this season and I will back Liverpool to win a game in which both teams score.


Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: The words 'philosophy' and 'progress' have been used in press conferences through the season by Louis Van Gaal, but there has been little of that of late for Manchester United as they have struggled to turn possession into real chances. Manchester United have had a tough month, but I have to say the majority of those games have been away from Old Trafford and the side have had a hard time on their travels for much of the season.

Aside from the recent disappointing loss to Southampton, Manchester United have been playing effectively at Old Trafford and I think that will be a key for them in this game. Before that defeat, United had won 3 of their last 4 games at Old Trafford by at least two goals and I think they will be too strong for Leicester City.

For all the disappointment in going forward, Manchester United have the third best defensive record in the Premier League and are facing a Leicester City team that has only scored 7 times away from home.

I did consider backing Manchester United to win with a clean sheet to boot, but Louis Van Gaal might be looking for a more positive attacking game in this one and that might leave more spaces for Leicester to exploit. Therefore I am looking for United to get back to winning ways at Old Trafford with another comfortable enough victory by at least two goals which had begun to be a feature of their games before the defeat against Southampton.

Leicester City have also shown improvement in recent away games, but they were 2-0 down at Liverpool and behind at Tottenham Hotspur and I think United have played well enough defensively at home to hold those kinds of leads.

For all the attacking talent at Van Gaal's disposal, he has to get the right fit sooner rather than later if Manchester United are to achieve their top four goal and they can't afford to drop points in this one. At odds against, backing the home team to win by two or more goals looks to be the call.


West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is little doubt that West Brom have gone back to basics since Tony Pulis has come into the club and that is focusing on the defensive side of things and making the side hard to beat. They have kept clean sheets in their last two Premier League games, but there will be more expectation when they play at the Hawthornes and that could make this a better game to watch than some Pulis managed games can be.

That is probably a little harsh on Pulis because his teams play with passion and they can ruffle the feathers of some of the best teams in the Premier League. However, the first instance for this West Brom team is picking up any kind of points to make sure they avoid the drop and so Pulis might set them up to be tough to beat in this one.

On the other hand, perhaps the manager has seen the effort that Tottenham Hotspur put into their Capital One Cup Semi Final at Bramall Lane on Wednesday and might want West Brom to take advantage. They will be expected to push forward and pose some problems for a Tottenham defence that struggles for clean sheets.

While West Brom have clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 home games, Spurs are a team that has scored plenty of goals away from home and have shown a determination to win games late. Goals have been a feature of Tottenham Hotspur away games for much of the season and this has all the hallmarks of a 2-1 scoreline either way.

I was surprised that the layers seem to over-estimate what Tony Pulis will be able to do defensively with this West Brom team, especially as they have not faced a team as good as Spurs in his time at the club. At home, West Brom will be expected to get forward and the odds against quote that there are at least three goals in this game looks far too big to ignore.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Diego Costa has been banned for three games which begins in this one and that may even things up a little for Manchester City who continue to miss Yaya Toure as he plays for the Ivory Coast at the African Cup of Nations.

Unfortunately for Manchester City, it seems that Toure has taken the form with him as the side have struggled in his absence, although another week with Sergio Aguero getting healthier will be a bonus for the side. I think City can also take the positives from the chances that Liverpool created against Chelsea over two legs of the Capital One Cup Semi Final as well as the four goals that Bradford scored at Stamford Bridge last weekend in the FA Cup.

Newcastle United were another team that has recently visited Stamford Bridge and had chances to take the lead so Manchester City have to be encouraged about their chances as they look to close the 5 point lead that Chelsea have at the top of the table.

However, City have to play better than they have been as they are without a win in 3 games and were beaten 0-2 by Arsenal in their last Premier League game. Going out of the FA Cup against Middlesbrough is another body blow that they have taken, but this looks a game where Frank Lampard may hurt his former club again.

With the chances that both teams have created and conceded in recent games, this looks like a game that could feature at least three goals shared by the sides. My concern is the nature of Jose Mourinho to set his teams up to not concede too much space, especially as a draw will suit Chelsea a lot more than it does Manchester City, but the away team have the quality to break them down.

If Manchester City can score, Chelsea will have to play more of an open game than expected and I will back there being at least three goals shared in this one with both defences not playing up to the standard expected of late.


Arsenal v Aston Villa Pick: In recent seasons, Aston Villa have had a lot of success at the Emirates Stadium which is a surprise because they haven't really been much better than they are this season.

The absence of Alexis Sanchez is a bitter blow to an Arsenal team that have relied on their new signing far more than their fans would likely want to admit. He has been suffering with a hamstring injury and Arsene Wenger has admitted that he won't be risking him with big Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup games to come this month.

Arsenal will still be expected to win this game in the absence of Sanchez having won 6 in a row in all competitions at the Emirates Stadium. Add to that the fact that Aston Villa have lost 3 in a row away from home and I think the Gunners will likely win this game, although they will need some inspiration from another quarter outside of their Chilean superstar.

Instead of looking at the handicap, I think backing Arsenal to win to nil may be the better option as the side could settle for a 1-0 in this one. Aston Villa have lost by that scoreline in their last 3 away games and have only scored 2 goals in their last 9 away Premier League games and they still look a little goal shy.

MY PICKS: Hull City-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 2.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Liverpool to Win @ 3.30 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

January Update: 6-18-1, - 15.88 Units (45 Units Staked, - 35.29% Yield)

December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 70-98-1, - 18.88 Units (289 Units Staked, - 6.53% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)