Tennis Picks 2015 (July 24th)

What... A... Week(!)

I am completely done with this week and it is one that I don't want to go through again where it felt like I had literally picked matches that had players going out of their way to irritate me. I am not one of these people that think tennis players are machines so I obviously won't be venting my disgust to any of the players personally because I am not an idiot and have learned to take the rough with the smooth.

Unfortunately it has been incredibly rough this week as I have had virtually no fortune at all which has been highlighted by some of the ways the picks have fallen through and I think it is better to call it a day for the week.

Looking back at some of the results this week, I really wish I had Biff's Sports Almanac from Back to the Future because that is the only way I would believe what I was seeing. Players constantly getting into a position to win matches and somehow throwing them away and all the statistics pointing to the picks being correct, but simply not falling my way.


Making picks while completely 'pissed off', pardon my French, is simply not smart and I haven't lost faith that matches I picked were wrong considering how strong the season had been.

Don't be foolish in thinking that I don't appreciate there have been some bad picks too... The picks on Lukas Rosol and Federico Delbonis had alarm bells attached prior to being made and I should have paid more attention those.

But let me break down some of the other results and I think it will be clear that there has been almost nothing going my way.


It all began on Monday as the first pick of the week fell through the crack- I had backed Fernando Verdasco who somehow lost the first set despite having at least one break point in all but one Nicolas Almagro service game. He then won the second set easily enough and was serving to get into a final set tie-break only to then hand Almagro a break and winning the match.

Almagro only had break points in four games but broke three times, while Verdasco had break points in double the games and broke just three times himself. If that match went into a tie-breaker, Verdasco would have covered and thus set the tone for the rest of the week.

Later that day Matthew Ebden won the first set in his match 61, but then fell apart to lose and fail to cover a small number of games himself.


Moving on to Wednesday, Andrey Rublev became the third player I had picked this week that would have brought in a winner if he had won a final set in his match, but was beaten.

That had come after Thomaz Bellucci won more than half of the points on his opponent's serve but failed to covert a 0-40 situation and was broken in both the games he gave up break points in the match to miss the cover by a single game. On another day he wins 62, 62 but another day won't work for me this week.


So Thursday couldn't have that kind of misfortune could it? Well Julia Goerges became the latest player to lose a final set after dominating her match in the first two sets and failing to get the job done when she should have.

Alize Cornet won the first set of her match 62, but fell apart like so many others in another final set defeat and Martin Klizan was a set up in both sets but was still beaten in straight sets.

Jerzy Janowicz might have lost easily on paper, but he had had break points in every one of Steve Darcis' first three service games and couldn't convert which quickly saw him fall apart by the end of the match.


There are at least six matches there that could have easily gone my way with even a slight bounce of the ball falling for the players I had picked at the big moments. That might have actually made this a winning week rather than an embarrassing one that has crushed the season stats in three days.

The picks are still up, but it has been a devastating blow and I would much rather make a few tweaks and leave the tennis until the next set of tournaments. This is simply an ugly week where nothing is going to go right and I don't want any more part of it truth be told!

Some times it is better to say the battle is lost but try and win the war and that is what a long season on the tennis Tour is. You have some bad weeks, but trying to avoid these horrific weeks can be difficult when it really rolls on you.

I would have much rather have seen the picks get nowhere near winning at times because then you can make adjustments as to how they have been made- however, it is much more difficult to be critical of the methods to making picks when they have been as close as those have that I described above where the matches went almost exactly as anticipated except for the players putting the period on the sentence. 


So that will be it for the week as I will update the season statistics when making my next set of picks as the new tournaments begin on Monday. I feel disappointed for the readers this week who might have followed and had a rough week of their own, but I think the chance to refresh and start again on Monday is the best policy when the week has been as 'cursed' as this one has.

Hopefully a few days off will just reset whatever has gone wrong this week and next week is a much stronger return.

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 22nd)

That was a very frustrating Tuesday... I can hold my hands up and say the pick on Lukas Rosol to win his match was a poor one, and one that I won't be replicating again any time soon as I have moved Rosol onto my black list.

For as big as his game is, I am not convinced Rosol will ever get things right between the ears and anyone who is handed as many bagels as he is with the serve he possesses has to be criticised for mentally checking out of matches. At least Croatia is a nice place to spend part of a honeymoon that Rosol and his new wife can enjoy in the time they have remaining in Umag.


While I will be quick to hold my hands up to that pick, I was frustrated by the other picks coming close, but not quite getting into the winner's enclosure. Santiago Giraldo looks to have suffered a big defeat, but he had chances to break the Philipp Kohlschreiber serve in the same number of games as the German in the middle of that match... Giraldo was 0/2, Kohlschreiber was 2/2 and that was easily a match that could have gone my way.

The bigger disappointments have to be both Fernando Verdasco and Matthew Ebden who had small numbers to cover and both won a set 61.

The problem is neither could actually win their match while Verdasco was broken serving to take the third set into a tie-break which would have been enough for a cover whether he had won it or lost it.


So frustrating is about right to describe my mood going into Wednesday as the Second Round begins for the most part with a few First Round matches to be completed. Hopefully I will have a little more luck on my side in the coming days to recover a really poor start to this week, but I surely can't have players playing as poorly as they did on Tuesday.


Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: One big concern for Federico Delbonis backers in his opening match in Bastad has to be the travel that the Argentinian has had to do in recent days as he returns to Europe from home Davis Cup duty. However, Delbonis has to have picked up a lot of confidence by helping Argentina reach the Davis Cup Semi Final after coming from 0-2 down in sets to beat Victor Troicki in the second rubber.

Having to travel from Argentina to Sweden is going to be tough, but Delbonis has at least had the benefit of being given an extra day of recovery before his First Round match. And he is playing Rogerio Dutra Silva who had to fight through the qualifiers, although the Brazilian will be more settled with the current conditions in this part of Sweden.

These players only met a month ago in the Final of a Milan Challenger on clay and it was Federico Delbonis who had more success behind the serve which helped him win the title.

Dutra Silva has been winning a few matches since then at the lower level than the main Tour and that will have boosted his confidence for this rematch. However, I do believe there is more upside in the Delbonis game and I am expecting him to win this 64, 64 as long as the Davis Cup hasn't left him emotionally spent less than a week after a huge win in front of his own fans.


Thomaz Bellucci - 5.5 games v Christian Lindell: Both of these players were involved in Brazil versus Sweden First Round matches in Bastad, but the clear advantage in the Second Round has to be with Thomaz Bellucci.

A lot of people out there were of the belief that Elias Ymer could go all the way in Bastad this week, but Bellucci dominated the match against the youngster and will be looking to make it three South American Champions in a row at this tournament. Bellucci played really well on Tuesday as he backed up his serve impressively while keeping Ymer under pressure and I expect he will be able to employ a similar game against Christian Lindell.

Don't take anything away from Lindell who beat Joao Souza in the First Round as a fairly big underdog, but the Swede generally plays at a lower level than Bellucci. He has also suffered some big defeats in recent weeks and is facing a player that has seen his game before when Bellucci beat Lindell in three sets in Sao Paolo five seasons ago.

That match shouldn't have an affect on how this one is played, but I do think Bellucci is going to put Lindell under some pressure as he did to the talented Ymer. If the Brazilian can just look after his serve the same way he did in the First Round, another 64, 62 win for Bellucci over a home hope looks to be in the making.


Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Big things are expected of Alexander Zverev in the future, but it would be a big ask for the German to beat a clay courter like Juan Monaco on his favourite surface. Zverev had to dig deep to come from a set down to win his First Round match against Julian Reister, but the expectation is that Monaco will pose a lot more of a consistent threat in this one.

The one concern in backing Monaco has to be the fact that he hasn't played much tennis of late, although it does look like the Argentine is going to have his best year on the Tour since 2012. In all honesty I thought Monaco might be coming to the end of his career over the last couple of years, but he has come back impressively this year and plays at a higher level on the Tour when it comes to clay courts compared with Zverev.

I do respect the talent that Zverev has, but he is young and inconsistent and that is shown up on the clay courts where the extended rallies don't suit him.

Monaco will look to exploit those inconsistencies and I think he will find a way to break down his young opponent, although has to control his nerves to make sure he doesn't allow Zverev to get back in. With some twists and turns, I think Monaco finds a way to win this one 64, 64.


Andrey Rublev v Blaz Kavcic: Another player coming back from successful Davis Cup duty and returning to the normal Tour is Andrey Rublev. The 17 year old Russian helped his nation come from 0-2 down against Spain to win that tie over the weekend and has admitted that he has found it hard to contain the joy of doing that.

However, this is also a kid that seems to be very, very confident and Rublev has shown enough through the course of the season to think he can get the better of Blaz Kavcic. I am just surprised the layers have picked Rublev as the slight underdog in this match, especially as the clay courts seem to be favoured by the youngster more than Kavcic.

The biggest concern has to be the effort Rublev had to make over the weekend when representing Russia, but I do think he is the better player in this contest with much more upside. Of course any youngster is going to be inconsistent at times, but I think the clay is also a surface that Rublev will be able to work through the rallies better than Kavcic.

It might need three sets, but I will pick Rublev to win this match with the extra day off since the Davis Cup tie on Sunday.


Sam Stosur - 5.5 games v Klara Koukalova: Klara Koukalova has to feel like she is playing with house money after looking like she was going to be hammered in the First Round before her opponent retired. Koukalova was down 16, 04 before Anna-Lena Friedsam had to pull out, but I don't believe the veteran is going to have enough to see off Sam Stosur in this Second Round.

The Australian is another veteran who looks to be past her best days when she won a Grand Slam and reached the Final of another but Stosur should still be too good for Koukalova. I expect Stosur to use her serve to keep Koukalova from really getting a grip on this match, while the Czech player doesn't have a big serve of her own which means having to work hard to protect that side of her game.

It is no surprise that as she has got older, the movement is perhaps not as quick as it used to be and that has seen Koukalova take some very one-sided losses.

If she feels she has nothing to lose after the manner she got through in the First Round, Koukalova could potentially be dangerous. However, Stosur has the serve to keep her at bay for the most part and I expect her to win this one 64, 62.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-4, - 8 Units (8 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)