Boxing Picks 2020- Felix Cash vs Jason Welborn (August 14th-15th)

Fight Camp has been a huge success for Matchroom Boxing and the third of four events scheduled for August takes place on Friday night.

Thunderstorms are expected in the area which may make the entire outlook of the event feel very different to the first two weeks here, but Eddie Hearn and his team will be aware of the forecast and I have no doubt it will be another strong event.

The card looks a good one from top to bottom and those tuning in on Friday night should get full value for money. This event takes place eight days before the final Fight Camp card which features the big headline names, but I think this one could be as good as any card we see over this month.


There are also other big events taking place this weekend as Matchroom Boxing USA has their first event since the Coronavirus crisis affected sporting events around the world, while Carl Frampton is also in action on Saturday night as he looks to remind everyone that he is still looking for the big fights before he calls time on his career.


In this thread you can read my thoughts on the cards scheduled for the weekend, but I will also be looking forward to the big UFC event on Saturday night which features the completion of the trilogy between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier.

That will be a cracking event too in a weekend which will be much appreciated by combat sports fans.

John Docherty vs Anthony Fox

There is a big future in front of John Docherty and he has been keen to get back inside a Boxing ring and not allow his career to stagnate while the sports world has had to postpone a few scheduled events.

The feeling that another round of Covid-19 could see another lockdown occur meant Docherty was very keen to get over to Fight Camp and at least put a few more Rounds in the bank.

You could be forgiven that is the thinking for John Docherty because he has been bullish in the build up to this bout in talking about ending the fight as early as many others he has had already. Putting a stoppage on the books against Anthony Fox would be making the kind of statement Docherty wants to make, although there is no doubt it is going to be a test to do that.

John Docherty has power as shown by six stoppages in eight wins, but all of those early nights have come in the first couple of Rounds and the two exceptions have both gone the distance.

That is something that may be on the mind at times for Docherty, especially if Anthony Fox is able to show enough to weather the early storm.

The underdog has an 8-12-2 record as professional, but he has only been stopped once before and that was in his first defeat. That did come in the Second Round so there might be some early problems to get through, but Fox has shown he has become someone who not only can test early professional.

Anthony Fox actually comes into this bout off the back of three wins in a row with one of those being against former Commonwealth Champion Luke Blackledge and another being against an unbeaten fighter in Duane Sinclair. Those wins have to be respected, even if the feeling is that John Docherty is a level or two above Fox and it certainly makes me think that the journeyman can at least force the favourite to see the cards.

A late stoppage can't be ruled out with Docherty going into an Eight Rounder for the first time as he steps up his competition, but I think Anthony Fox can show enough grit to reach the cards even in a losing effort.

Shannon Courtenay vs Rachel Ball

A couple of weeks ago Rachel Ball was a huge price to beat Shannon Courtenay, but the money has been piling in on the underdog to the point where we have a pick 'em in this crossroads bout.

Both women have five professional wins on the resume, but Ball did lose a very close fight to Katherina Thanderz when fighting on very short notice. That defeat has been franked by the fact that Thanderz has gone on to win an interim World Title and many felt that Ball did enough to earn the Decision on the night.

It is the kind of performance which suggests she can give Shannon Courtenay all she can handle as the younger fighter takes another step up in class. Her five wins have come against overmatched opponents, but Rachel Ball arrives with the height advantage and knowing she has done at least Eight Rounds on two different occasions while Courtenay has yet to go beyond the Fifth Round.

Shannon Courtenay is the heavier fighter and will be looking to bully Rachel Ball, but the confidence of the latter cannot be ignored. She has been down before which is a concern for the Ball backers, and there hasn't been a stoppage win on her resume so the power may be with the younger fighter.

However, Rachel Ball's better resume can't be ignored here.

I do think Shannon Courtenay could be favoured by the judges in close Rounds, but Rachel Ball should be able to weather some of the early storm and begin to showcase what I believe to be underrated ability. She has shown she can compete at a high level and there is still enough in the price to back Rachel Ball even if it is no longer the kind of upset many felt it might have been when the fight was first put together.

Zelfa Barrett vs Eric Donovan

Fighting for the first time under the Matchroom Boxing Promotion on Friday night is Zelfa Barrett who has openly admitted he dreams of being the next big Manchester Boxing Icon.

The 27 year old has won the English Title and the Commonwealth Title at Super Featherweight and Barrett could be on the brink of a World Title shot if he can win this fight. It will certainly put Zelfa Barrett on the right path by picking up one of the smaller IBF Titles at the weight, while The Flash will want to put on a performance to light up Fight Camp through the Thunder and Lightning that has been forecasted.

He has won four fights in a row since a Majority Decision loss to Ronnie Clark and Zelfa Barrett has momentum behind him.

On Friday night Eric Donovan will be in the opposite corner and the Irishman has plenty of amateur experience while also being unbeaten in the professional ranks. Eric Donovan has twelve fights behind him but at 35 years old there isn't a lot of room for error if he is going to get into a position to challenge for World honours.

There have been displays of power from Eric Donovan in his first twelve fights, but this is a step up in class. I have little doubt that the Irishman will not take a backwards step, but that may suit Zelfa Barrett down to the ground as he looks to showcase his talents and begin to build a swell of support behind him for when the fans are allowed to return to the Arenas.

It would be a surprise if Zelfa Barrett is able to put one shot together to end the fight, but an accumulation of shots can break down Eric Donovan. In the early Rounds I think the amateur successes Donovan has had will give him a chance to make this a competitive fight, but eventually Barrett's power and ability to put shots together will wear down his opponent.

A second half stoppage looks the most likely direction this fight will take and I will look for Zelfa Barrett do to that and announce himself to a wider audience.

Felix Cash vs Jason Welborn

The Middleweight Commonwealth Title is on the line when Felix Cash defends against Jason Welborn and I would be stunned if this is anything but an all action bout.

Felix Cash is the unbeaten Champion who has put twelve wins on the board and he has shown plenty of power with eight stoppages on the record. There are some good wins on the record, but Cash will be the first to note that this is another step up in his career against an opponent who has fought for a World Title.

Jason Welborn has had a long career and eight defeats may suggest he is not someone that should trouble Felix Cash. However, Welborn has plenty of experience and some of his defeats have come against really strong Boxers which can't be ignored.

The fact Welborn has lost back to back fights is a concern as is the fact that both times he has been stopped to the body, but I have no doubt he will get forward and look to make life very uncomfortable for Felix Cash. The underdog can make things rough and dirty which could take Cash out of his comfort zone and Jason Welborn would love for frustrations to lead to mistakes from the younger Champion.

Ultimately I think that Welborn makes it competitive for a while, but Felix Cash may end up being a little too fresh and accurate with his punches. That should see him begin to take over the fight and perhaps come on strong in the second half of the bout.

A body shot may be the key to the outcome and I will look for Cash to just showcase some of his skills early and flash power late to get this one done. I expect a great fight in the main event and I am expecting plenty of big punches to land amongst the expected thunderstorm in this part of the United Kingdom.

Archie Sharp vs Jeff Ofori

For the fourth time Archie Sharp will be defending his European Super Featherweight Title and in this one he takes on someone that he will be familiar with in Jeff Ofori.

The latter is coming down from Light Welterweight to take on this fight, but Jeff Ofori has struggled when he has stepped up in class and was stopped by Ohara Davies in his last fight.

Coming down may mean Ofori can take a little more punishment at this weight, but Archie Sharp puts his punches together and this is largely seen as a tick-a-long fight for him.

The power is coming for Sharp, but I think he will be a little too accurate with his punches which can see him break down an overmatched opponent. Archie Sharp has managed to find the stoppage in two of his last four fights and I think he will show he is levels above his opponent in this one as he finds an early enough stoppage.

Backing this fight to end in the first 7.5 Rounds looks the call here as Sharp looks to move his career forward.

Carl Frampton vs Darren Traynor

It is wasn't for the Covid-19 outbreak Carl Frampton would have been fighting for a World Title in a third different Division and become the first Irish fighter to try and win belts in three classes.

With the long lay off that has had to be dealt with by all, Frampton returns on Saturday with a tune up fight before he heads into bigger fights again.

There is no doubt that Carl Frampton is dropping to domestic level when taking on Darren Traynor who is a late replacement. The Scottish Boxer has been beaten three times in his career and he has been stopped by both Ryan Walsh and James Tennyson inside Five Rounds.

This feels like a big step up for Traynor again and I do think he will only last as long as Frampton allows him to.

Boxing is very much about levels and Frampton has long operated on a different plane to Traynor- he may not be the fighter he was, but Carl Frampton should be able to showcase his talent and put a comfortable win on the board.

Only one of his last nine fights have ended in a stoppage win, but Carl Frampton can put the pressure on early in this one and break down Darren Traynor within the first Five Rounds.

Otto Wallin vs Travis Kauffman

It has been a touch over eleven months since Otto Wallin pushed Tyson Fury all the way and was very close to breaking up the impending Wilder-Fury clash which had been signed off.

On another day a referee may have waved things off as Wallin opened up a cut which needed 47 stitches to close and ever since Fury went on to win the WBC World Title the Swedish Boxer has been calling for a rematch.

He impressed enough to have another opportunity in the United States and the southpaw is a big favourite to see off veteran Travis Kauffman who returns to the ring after a twenty month absence.

The last time Kauffman was in the ring he was being stopped by Luis Ortiz on the Wilder-Fury 1 undercard in December 2018. The veteran will be looking to show there is still something left in the tank, but this feels like a fight in which Wallin will dominate and be able to at least give the fans something to talk about,

Travis Kauffman has lost three times and two of those have come in stoppages- he has also been Knocked Down four times in his last two fights and I do think the time spent away from the ring is not going to be beneficial for him.

Otto Wallin did have an injury which postponed an outing earlier in the year, but he should be fully healthy now. He is perhaps not the biggest punching Heavyweight out there, but I think he will have enough to wear down Travis Kauffman and could get the referee to step in at some point across the Ten Rounder scheduled.

MY PICKS: John Docherty Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rachel Ball to Win @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Zelfa Barrett to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.87 William Hill (2 Units)

Felix Cash to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Archie Sharp-Jeff Ofori Under 7.5 Rounds @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carl Frampton to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Otto Wallin to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (August 14th)

I have to say the last couple of weeks have been treacherous as far as the Tennis Picks have gone and at times I do feel like I am being teased by the Gods.

Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer both got to match points in their matches on Tuesday and converting those points would have meant a cover of the handicap mark that was set out. Both were unable to do that and the fine margins of tennis seem to be going against me at the moment which is frustrating. Added to that was Petra Kvitova taking a break lead in the final set, one she just had to win to cover the mark, yet lost the last four games to fail to do that too.

I would much rather say that players have been unable to get into a position to cover and thus make the adjustments for the Picks, but when they get as close to covering without doing it I do think it is much more difficult to take. The season has been a good one so clearly the right plays have been made more often than not, but it has been a difficult month since Wimbledon and I was looking for better momentum to take into the US Open.


On Wednesday we move deeper into the Cincinnati Masters with the remainder of the Second Round to be completed in both the ATP and WTA events being played. There are a few matches that have fit into the criteria which has paid off very well this season, but I am hoping I am going to have slightly better luck than I have been experiencing of late.

In a sport where very little can decide the outcome of full matches, I have to accept I was always going to have a difficult run at some point, but I have managed to limit those moments so far over the course of 2019. Last week was the first time I had suffered back to back negative returning weeks, but I don't want that trend to move through to a third week in a row so this could be an important day to try and right a ship that has turned in a wrong direction of late.


Elina Svitolina - 2.5 games v Elise Mertens: Both of these players reached the Quarter Final in Cincinnati last season, but I have to give Elina Svitolina the edge to see off Elise Mertens and move a step closer to that Round in 2019.

This has been a difficult season for Svitolina in terms of where her expectations would have been coming into 2019. She won the WTA Finals in Singapore at the end of 2018 and the Ukrainian has been in and around the top of the women's game for a number of years without having the kind of impact at a Grand Slam she would have liked.

You would have expected the confidence to be flowing after winning the WTA Finals, but instead Svitolina has taken a backwards step although she is still a top 10 player. The numbers on the hard courts compared with the last two seasons are indicative of the lack of success Svitolina has had compared to those years, although there are signs she is returning to her best form with a Quarter Final run in San Jose and Toronto behind her.

There has been a decline across her numbers, but Elina Svitolina has shown some life in her return of serve over the last month which should give her every chance of winning a match against an opponent she has beaten in two of their three previous matches. And she is facing Elise Mertens who has been very inconsistent on the hard courts in 2019.

Last year at the Australian Open Elise Mertens crushed Elina Svitolina, but she hasn't really kicked on as she would have liked on the hard courts over the last eighteen months. A strong win in the First Round will have given Mertens some confidence but the Belgian is just 13-10 on the hard courts this season and has had early losses in San Jose and Toronto.

Like Elina Svitolina, Mertens have seen her service numbers decline behind first and second serve, and her return has actually proven to be not as effective as what Svitolina can produce. With the slightly superior serve, Svitolina is able to come through a couple more difficult moments than Mertens and that could prove to be the key again.

Her record against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2019 is 4-6 and Mertens has seen her numbers take a significant decline in those matches. She is a talented player, but Mertens is someone that can be vulnerable against the very best players on the Tour and I think Elina Svitolina still earns a place amongst them.

Twelve months ago Svitolina beat Mertens in straight sets in Montreal and I think she is going to have too much for her here in Cincinnati too. I do think Elina Svitolina is going to have to improve tremendously to have an impact at the US Open, but she can build confidence here with a good looking win in the Second Round.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 games v Radu Albot: There is no doubt that at almost 30 years old Radu Albot is playing the best tennis of his career and that has seen him reach a peak career Ranking of Number 39 in the World. What that means is that Albot is able to take his place in the Masters events without having to go through the Qualifiers and a strong end to the 2019 season will mean he has every chance of being Seeded when the draw for the Australian Open is made in early January 2020.

All credit has to be given to Albot who tends to play his best tennis on the hard courts and the evidence of his improvement is in the numbers as he has begun to play at a higher level than he is used to. Twelve months ago he didn't play at either of the August Masters events and Albot was also still playing Challenger events at the end of the season, but he is set for a strong finish if he can maintain his form.

The Moldovan had won just 9 matches on the hard courts at the main ATP level in 2017 and 2018 combined, but this year he is 19-9 and won a title in Delray Beach. Radu Albot is vastly improved when it comes to the serve and the return in the main Tour matches and that has let to the strong record that he arrives in Cincinnati with, while his form has shown little sign of dipping having overcome Marin Cilic in the First Round.

It has been a solid few weeks on the hard courts for Albot who reached the Semi Final in Los Cabos and his return figures have been impressive. In the nine matches played on this surface since Wimbledon, Albot has won 40% of points against the opponent's serve and broken in 31% of return games played which makes him a real live underdog in this Second Round match.

I have a lot of respect for the tennis Albot is playing, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is a confident hard court player too despite his diminutive size and it certainly makes him a book you shouldn't judge by the cover. The Argentinian was a strong winner in the First Round and I do think he will match up well with Albot and I am expecting to see plenty of drawn out rallies between the players.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman does not have as many main Tour wins as Albot on the hard courts in 2019, but they have similar service numbers with the main difference being that the higher Ranked player has shown the superior serve. His numbers have even been slightly better than Albot's over the last month since Wimbledon came to an end and it was Schwartzman who took the title home when both appeared in Los Cabos.

I do expect to see a few breaks of serve and I would not be surprised if this match goes the full three sets. As I have said, I have to respect the performances Radu Albot has put together in 2019, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is potentially a bad match up for him and I will look for the favourite to cover the mark in this one.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Lucas Pouille: A come from behind win over Joao Sousa will have done Denis Shapovalov plenty of good in the First Round and the fact he was getting stronger and stronger during the match gives him some momentum to take into the Second Round. He is favoured to win this match against Lucas Pouille too, although Shapovalov has to show his confidence is in a better place having had a difficult season for the most part.

To be fair to the young Canadian, Lucas Pouille can't exactly have a spring in his step having been beaten in the First Round in Montreal last week which actually means he had lost six straight hard court matches beginning with the Australian Open Semi Final against Novak Djokovic. The run was snapped in the First Round in Cincinnati, but the Frenchman has always been a pretty average hard court player.

That doesn't mean Pouille has not had some very strong runs in tournaments, but his margin for error is very small thanks to a relatively weak return. Over the last twelve months on the hard courts, Lucas Pouille has won just 34% of return points and broken in 16% of return games which keeps his own serve under immense pressure with a feeling that a single break could cost him a set.

Lucas Pouille does have a decent serve, but he is holding 81% of games played behind that shot over the last twelve months on this surface. He seems to be a player that can struggle when the pressurised points come up like the break points and I do think it will be difficult for him to win this match barring a performance close to the best tennis Pouille can play.

No one will ever suggest Denis Shapovalov is a big time returner, at least not at this stage of his career. However his numbers are slightly better in terms of break percentage and points won against serve percentage than his opponent in this match and the Canadian has added a few points to his service numbers in 2019 compared with 2018.

I do think this is a match that potentially comes down to one or two key points in deciding the outcome and it may literally be who is the more efficient on the break points if both players are going to have very few chances to do that. My feeling is that Denis Shapovalov is the better server of the two and his slightly superior returning numbers should add to his advantage, while the Canadian at least has a few wins on the hard courts in recent months compared with Lucas Pouille who just snapped a six match losing run on the surface.

The Frenchman has had a day of rest between his First Round and this Second Round match, but I won't give that too much of a factor. In my opinion the favourite is worth backing to cover the handicap mark set for this match.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: This has been the best year of Roberto Bautista Agut's career and he is on the brink of cracking the top 10 of the World Rankings for the first time. Another decent run on the hard courts last week saw Bautista Agut reach the Quarter Final in Montreal and he will be looking for another that could see him make the move into the top 10 at the end of this week.

He has always been very comfortable on the hard courts and his run to the Quarter Final at the Australian Open has kick started the 2019 season. The Spaniard followed up with a Semi Final run at Wimbledon for his best ever Grand Slam performance, although Bautista Agut has had little success at the Cincinnati Masters in the past.

I do think Bautista Agut can begin to change that having won his First Round match here impressively. That has helped him improve to 18-5 on the hard courts in 2019 and Bautista Agut is getting plenty out of his serve while remaining an effective returner.

Roberto Bautista Agut has reached the Quarter Final in all but one of the hard court events he has played this year, but he will also have to deal with the crowd on Wednesday who should be firmly behind Frances Tiafoe. The young American has just slipped down the World Rankings in recent months as he has struggled for the consistency needed on the main Tour though and I think Tiafoe is going to have to dig very deep to win this match considering he has largely unimpressive numbers.

Frances Tiafoe is at his best on the hard courts, but he has won less than 50% of the total points played on the surface which has contributed to a 10-9 record for the year. The serve can be effective, but Tiafoe has been holding 80% of service games played on the hard courts and his sub 20% break percentage in return games does not cover that.

I do have to respect the fact that Tiafoe surprisingly has a winning record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2019. He beat Gael Monfils in the First Round in Cincinnati to boost the confidence, but I also think Tiafoe will be well aware that he needs a poor performance from Bautista Agut to get into a position to win this match.

In general the Frances Tiafoe serve and return is not as effective against the top 20 Ranked players as his overall numbers and I think that shows up here. It is a big number for Bautista Agut to cover if Tiafoe is energised by the crowd, but I think the Spaniard is in good form and he can find a way to earn the cover in a victory to move into the Third Round on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 3-5, - 4.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 28.25% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 14th)

It would have been some awful luck if my second Tennis Pick on Monday had failed to come back as a winner as Sam Querrey served for the match in the final set against John Isner only to face his break points of the match and subsequently drop serve for the first time.

I was convinced it was going to be a hard luck loss on the cards, but Querrey managed to right the ship in the tie-breaker and snapped a run of eight consecutive final set breaker defeats.

The right player moved through and added to the Kei Nishikori success earlier in the day which has got the Cincinnati Masters off to a good start. It is only a start though and there is plenty of work to do to ensure a winning week is put into the books ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season which is now less than two weeks from beginning.


On Tuesday the remaining First Round matches will be completed in both the ATP and WTA events being played in Cincinnati this week. I have Tennis Picks from both draws on Tuesday as well as the beginning of the Second Round with some matches scheduled for today too.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Two of the best up and coming younger players on the ATP Tour meet in the First Round of the Cincinnati Masters on Tuesday. Both Daniil Medvedev and Borna Coric played in the new Next Gen Finals at the end of the 2017 season, but it is Coric who has kicked on and moved up the World Ranking to a significant level that he has direct entry into every big tournament being played on the Tour.

It has been a little more difficult for Medvedev who has had to come through the Qualifiers in both the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters, but the young Russian is playing so well that he has managed to do that. No one should assume it is easy to win a couple of Qualifiers at this level to get into the main draw of the Masters events so Medvedev has to be respected for coming through to enter the First Round.

The numbers have been good on the hard courts for Medvedev which makes him a dangerous opponent on this surface. His serve is an important shot for him, but the problem has come from the return of serve over the last couple of years as that has prevented Medvedev from really getting some consistent results put together.

Medvedev has played well since the move onto the hard courts last month and he has won eight of the ten matches he has played in Washington, Toronto and here in Cincinnati. I think he will enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Cincinnati over the years, but Medvedev is in for a big challenge to beat Borna Coric who has really improved in leaps and bounds on the hard courts in 2018.

The 13-6 record on the surface may not highlight that, but Coric has maintained the strong serving he showed in 2017 and now added to it by really improving on the return side of his game. It has long been considered that Coric will be one of the top players on the Tour but he is beginning to show that he is ready to fulfil his potential as he grows into his body.

It is the return side of the game where Coric looks to have a real edge over Medvedev and I think that may be the important factor in the match. If the young Croatian can continue to find the plays to get into rallies I think he will break down Medvedev with a little more consistency off the ground and I will look for Coric to move through to the Second Round here with a win and cover.


Denis Shapovalov v Kyle Edmund: If you take Kyle Edmund's season as a whole on the hard courts into consideration he has been playing at a very good level and you may wonder how he is only 8-6 on the surface. You may also consider he has been unfortunate not to have a much stronger winning record, but the numbers are heavily influenced by his amazing run at the Australian Open and it has all been tough sledging for him since then.

In fact Edmund snapped a four match losing run on the hard courts by beating McKenzie McDonald in the First Round here. The return side of Edmund's game has been steady in 2018 on the hard courts, but he isn't the most impressive of returners which has put plenty of pressure on him to make sure his serve is working at full tilt.

Unfortunately for Edmund, the serve has really slipped back from his early season form over the last five months and that has been a real reason he has lost so many matches on this surface. His hold percentage has dropped under 80% in his last five hard court matches while his 2018 service points won are up at 67% but down to 63% in his last five matches on the hard courts.

That is a strong enough decline to see a player slip back and those numbers are actually worse than what Edmund has produced on the hard courts in 2016 and 2017. Now he has to face an opponent in Denis Shapovalov who is playing on his favoured surface and who has been in better form than Edmund of late.

The young Canadian is working on his game so there have been some issues on the serve, but it remains a big weapon for him. I would imagine Shapovalov is quite keen on the quick conditions we usually see in Cincinnati and he has slightly superior numbers on the return of serve compared with Edmund which looks to give him an overall edge in this match.

It is Shapovalov who has got the better of Edmund in recent matches including beating him at the US Open last year. The Canadian has won three of the last four between these players and has looked the slightly stronger of the two and I will back him as the underdog to move through to the Third Round.


Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Maria Sakkari: Albert Einstein is said to have said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

That may be what I am feeling as I oppose Maria Sakkari on the hard courts again this summer. I didn't have a lot of success doing that in San Jose, but Sakkari's numbers continue to be very average on the hard courts and she has been overachieving with some of her results.

Fatigue may have been an issue for Sakkari in her loss to Daria Kasatkina in Montreal last week, but I still think this is a player who is earning better results than the numbers indicate she should.

A few months ago a match with Naomi Osaka would have been a really difficult one for Sakkari, but the Japanese star has not really played that well over the last couple of weeks. Osaka did win the Indian Wells title for the biggest success of her career, but she is just 1-2 on the hard courts in Washington and Montreal so confidence has to be an issue.

However Osaka has a very good serve which can at least limit what Sakkari can do on the return. Her own return game is slightly superior to Sakkari's and Osaka did dominate her in their match at Indian Wells back in March.

I do think she is capable of doing that again and I will back Osaka to cover the number in this one.


Victoria Azarenka v Caroline Garcia: We have yet to see Victoria Azarena come anywhere close to reaching the level she was displaying on the hard courts prior to her prolonged absence from the Tour. That was down to giving birth and then having a custody battle on her hands, but Azarenka is back to being a regular player on the Tour and is trying to find the consistency to make some big moves up the World Rankings.

The 2016 numbers on the hard courts were incredible from Azarenka and it was always going to be difficult to reach those levels again even if she had full health.

I think Azarenka needs to be given some credit for the levels she has played at in 2018 on her return and her 10-4 record on the hard courts has to be respected. The numbers are actually pretty similar to where Azarenka was prior to 2016, which was a special year, and I do think she is very dangerous on this surface even if she has yet to put too many strong runs together.

The Semi Final run in Miami has really been the main reason for her 10 wins in 2018, but Azarenka has had to face some tough draws which have prevented her going deep into draws. She faces another in the Second Round in Cincinnati when going up against Caroline Garcia, but I think Azarenka may be able to edge out the Frenchwoman who reached the Montreal Quarter Final last week.

It is the serve which has been very important for Garcia on this surface in 2018, but her return has not quite reached the level she would have liked and so there is room for improvement. Garcia returned well in Montreal last week which will have given her some confidence but she was only 9-7 on the hard courts prior to the Premier Event in Canada.

Garcia has lost her first match in Cincinnati in each of the last two seasons and Azarenka may just have the edge with the match under her belt here too. I imagine it will be close and I do like Garcia as a player, but Azarenka can edge her out and I will back the former World Number 1 as the underdog in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.74 Units (4 Units Staked, + 118.50% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2017 (August 14th)

Back to back Masters/Premier Event tournaments at this time of the season is all about preparation for the US Open.

Last week Alexander Zverev and Elina Svitolina took home the big titles in Canada and both have already shown they are capable of going all the way in New York. The former is one of the top young players on the Tour and looks to have taken a step ahead of some of his peers, while Svitolina will know how open the women's event at Flushing Meadows is going to be as it was at Wimbledon.

This week in Cincinnati the conditions are going to be quicker and this will play into the hands of the aggressive players, although the men's event may be missing yet another of the big names. Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray are already absent, but I will be surprised if Roger Federer takes part having had a few physical issues in the Montreal Final and the US Open only a couple of weeks away from getting going.

On Monday the First Round matches begin in both draws and I am going to have some picks from those matches scheduled.

Unfortunately time has been an issue so I will just have the picks from the matches below.


MY PICKS: Donald Young - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Olympic Tennis Picks 2016 (August 14th)

The Medal matches in the men's tournament at the Olympic Games in Rio take place on Sunday with the Bronze Medal match followed by the Gold Medal match this afternoon.

We also have the beginning of the Cincinnati Masters on Sunday with that being the last major tournament before the US Open begins on Monday 29th August, although it is an event that will miss Novak Djokovic.

The rest of the top players are in the draw which should make it a very good one, but it is going to be a rude awakening for some of the players that have been playing in the Olympics as the Cincinnati courts will play a lot faster than the ones in Rio. That is going to take some adjustment going forward for those players, which might make the early Rounds a little difficult to make picks from, but hopefully I can make the right choices to keep the momentum behind the picks.


It has been difficult over the last couple of days as the picks have gone 3-6, but the overall weekly record has been strong. That is keeping the positive trend going since Wimbledon and I am looking to end the Olympic Games with a couple of wins to put the exclamation point on a successful week.


Rafael Nadal - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The player trying to get over the bigger disappointment in this Bronze Medal match has to be Rafael Nadal who was beaten in a final set tie-breaker on Saturday. That came after taking the first set against Juan Martin Del Potro, but I am wondering what kind of physical state Kei Nishikori is in after a pretty tame Semi Final performance after a really difficult Quarter Final against Gael Monfils.

It is Nadal who has managed to get the better of Nishikori in their previous matches with nine wins from ten matches between them. That includes two wins in 2016 with one of those coming on the hard courts in Indian Wells as the underdog and I think he does hold the slight edge in this one.

I would always consider Nadal the superior player when it comes to natural fitness, but he is coming off a long lay-off which has to be a concern. Nadal might already have achieved his goals in Rio having won the Gold Medal in the Doubles tournament, but he doesn't strike me as someone who plays any tennis match without putting in every ounce of effort he has in his body and I think that will give him a slight edge in this one.

Nishikori is a tough competitor but he is more likely to have a few physical issues after a long week in Brazil and I think Nadal can win this one in three sets as he comes through 63, 36, 64.


Juan Martin Del Potro-Andy Murray over 36.5 games: Andy Murray has made plenty of history for British tennis having broken the curse of winning Grand Slams as a male player as well as the long wait for a Wimbledon Champion. However he now has the chance to make overall tennis history by becoming the first player to win two Gold Medals at the Olympic Games in the Singles tournament.

That would be an incredible achievement for a player who looks capable of finishing the year as the World Number 1 as he will go into the US Open as arguably the favourite to win. There might not be any Ranking points at stake, but Murray will be desperate to improve his legacy with another Gold Medal, although a rejuvenated Juan Martin Del Potro will hope to add Gold Medal to the Bronze Medal he won in London four years ago.

The run has been a memorable one for Del Potro having beaten World Number 1 Novak Djokovic and then beating Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final. This is maybe a bigger test for Del Potro because the question is can he cover the obvious weaknesses at the backhand wing for long enough to bring that powerhouse forehand in play? Secondly, can that forehand puncture the Murray defences on a court that has played slowly this week?

Murray will also earn cheaper points off the serve than Djokovic and Nadal and I think he is the more likely winner. However Murray hasn't always been at his best this week himself and is dealing with the pressure of making history and I do think Del Potro can at least take a set. Backing the games to be covered in this one looks the best option for the Gold Medal game.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro-Andy Murray Over 36.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 26-19, + 7.68 Units (88 Units Staked, + 8.73% Yield)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (August 14th)

The Quarter Finals have been reached at both the Masters and Premier Events taking place in Montreal and Toronto respectively, although it looks like the tournament organisers will be hoping there is enough time between the expected rain to get the matches all through.

It looks unlikely, particularly in Montreal for the bottom half of the draw, as rain is expected to settle in just before the evening session is due to take place and remain there for the rest of the evening.

The same can be said in Toronto where heavy showers are supposed to come in from the middle of the afternoon until late in the evening so don't be surprised if there are some players on 'double duty' on Saturday.


There are some big matches that have been set in the Quarter Finals, mainly in Montreal where all the names that we probably expected to make up the final eight have virtually made their presence known. As with any Masters event, there have been some surprises too as players pick up unexpected Ranking points that can see them make a big move up the World Rankings, which will only aid them going forward.

One of those has to be Ernests Gulbis who has had a pretty poor 2015 and slipped down to 87 in the World Rankings. Reaching the Quarter Final here is a good start to begin moving in the right direction, although I am not sure how he will cope with the likely quick turnaround to make the qualifiers in Cincinnati for next week which begin tomorrow.


Jeremy Chardy v John Isner: The layers don't often get things wrong, but I can't help feel the wrong player is favoured to win this match, especially if the rain delay doesn't help John Isner. The big American is into the Quarter Finals of an event for third week in a row and the two Finals he reached in Atlanta and Washington are clearly having an affect on his body.

He looked a little beat up against Nick Kyrgios in his Third Round match on Thursday and it was only a couple of gifts from the Australian that allowed Isner to break through. The serve is still a huge weapon, but there is definitely some limitations in his movement as back and leg issues catch up with him.

Now I am in no way suggesting Isner tanks this match, but the tournaments coming up have to be in the back of his mind as he returns to the United States. The crowd should also be firmly behind Jeremy Chardy in the French speaking province of Quebec and Chardy has won all three previous matches against Isner so clearly has the mental capacity to deal with the booming serves that will go past him.

Chardy has experienced something of that in his Third Round win over Ivo Karlovic so I expect him to be mentally ready, although he can't be as loose with some of his service games as he was on Thursday. If Isner is hurting, Chardy might be able to increase his winning run over him and he looks an underdog to back in the Quarter Finals.

The serve will always make Isner dangerous, but Chardy can get enough balls back in play to wear down the American's body that has played a lot of tennis over the last month. I'd back Chardy at the slightly smaller price offered by layers that will at least pay out if one set is completed.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: You have to be impressed with the run that Ernests Gulbis has made this week in Montreal, but his biggest challenge by far is next on deck for him. Gulbis is a player that does love to raise his level when playing the best players on the Tour and he has done that plenty of times in the past, but it would take something special for him to beat Novak Djokovic in the form the World Number 1 is in.

The dismantling of Jack Sock in the Third Round was brutal and Djokovic has laid down a marker to the rest of the Tour that he has big intentions of winning the US Open which begins in two weeks time. Playing to the level he showed against Sock will be difficult, but Djokovic has the return game to keep the pressure on Gulbis.

I also do wonder how much fight the Latvian will show if he falls a set behind in this one as he is likely to be involved in qualifiers for Cincinnati next week. He might already consider this a successful week picking up vital Ranking points, but getting into the second Masters of the summer has to be important for Gulbis too.

Someone like Djokovic can take the racquet out of your hand whether you want to or not, but I do think Gulbis has the potential of just going away a little in this one. There is no guarantee that Gulbis goes to the qualifiers in Cincinnati as he doesn't have a lot of points to defend there, but I still feel Djokovic will begin to find his eye on the return of serve which will lead to a 64, 62 win for the Number 1 Seed.

Djokovic will be able to get the better of Gulbis' strongest shot in the backhand and I also expect the Serb to attack the forehand by changing direction from the backhand wing. That should eventually break down the Gulbis game and the Latvian is going to have to serve very big if he is going to make this a really competitive match in my opinion.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: There is every possibility that this is one match that is held over until Saturday as they are scheduled last on the Centre Court in Montreal. With the rain expected this evening, both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray might be spending more time playing table tennis, as they did in the rain delay at Queens Club a couple of years ago, than actually the main event out on court.

I picked Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to take a set off of Murray in their Davis Cup match last month and a little more focus from the Frenchman would have seen him do that as he dropped the first two sets 75, 76. Once again it is expected that Murray is going to win this one in straight sets from the layers, but I think Tsonga has played well enough this week to make this another competitive match between these players.

The key to the whole match for Tsonga is trying to get something out of the Murray second serve, the weakest shot in the British player's game. Any extended rallies will favour Murray so Tsonga has to attack effectively on that shot if he is going to spring the surprise having beaten Murray in Toronto at this stage last year.

Aside from that victory for Tsonga, Murray has dominated the matches between these two in recent years and he has won 11/13 sets between them. However, very rarely is it an 'easy' win for Murray and I think Tsonga is inspired by having to defend his Ranking points from last year and can make this very close again.

The Tsonga backhand remains a big weakness in his game, but first strike tennis is the key for the Frenchman who should receive warm support throughout the match. Tsonga has the power to take a set off of Murray, but too often that hasn't been the case in recent matches and I will instead use the games offered to Tsonga which will come off as long as he keeps this competitive throughout. Murray has played well this week, but this is the toughest challenge he has seen so far and he might have to dig very deep to get the job done.


Lesia Tsurenko v Sara Errani: I watched much of the Sara Errani win over Victoria Azarenka on Thursday and I have to say I was more disappointed with Azarenka than I was impressed with the Italian. Azarenka got very down on herself after leading 4-3 with a break in the first set and she allowed Errani to escape unpunished on her own serve which would have really upset her.

The Italian did have a medical time out during the match, although there was no suggestion in her movement that it was anything to be concerned about going into the Quarter Final with Lesia Tsurenko.

Backing up her win over Azarenka is going to be difficult for Errani as she faces a confident player that won the title in Istanbul last month and has won 5 matches in Toronto without dropping a set. Tsurenko was an impressive winner over the likes of Garbine Muguruza and Yanina Wickmayer, although both players can be guilty of making a lot of mistakes and Errani won't gift too many to the Ukrainian.

Not many players have the moment and consistency that Errani can produce, but Tsurenko also has the power to hit through these courts and certainly punish a weak serve. Confidence is a big thing at the highest level and Tsurenko won't ever be more confident of her chances having 10 straight wins on the hard courts and going a little further will show she has won 16 of her last 17 hard court matches.

Errani can make some of the best players lose their focus and extract errors from them and that is a concern for Tsurenko, but the latter has been in exceptional form. This is a pick 'em contest, but backing the Ukrainian to continue a fine run in the last month has to be the call as long as she doesn't gift unforced errors in the same manner Azarenka was on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.96 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.33% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (August 14-17)

It is going to be a more common feature from next season, but the weekend football begins on a Friday in the Premier League as Aston Villa's match with Manchester United couldn't be played on the Saturday thanks to an EDL march that is supposed to be happening on the same day.

With Champions League commitments next week, Manchester United will be happy with the extra day to prepare for Club Brugge, while Sky TV get to work out what kind of feel they are going to get from the viewers on a Friday night. I imagine from next season a weekend preview show will likely begin at 6pm heading into the Friday night game and focusing on their other live games on any given weekend, but it is going to be different for the fans.

Other nations already have Friday football and the clubs involved in the Champions League and Europa Leagues have asked for the Friday and Monday moves respectively to aid English clubs like the other Leagues around Europe tend to do.


The big game of the weekend will obviously be in Manchester on Sunday as City take on Chelsea in an early title clash, but the bigger story around that game might be the dispute between Jose Mourinho and his medical staff. The main focus seems to be on Eva Carneiro who was downgraded, but Jon Fearn took the same punishment, except he may be allowed to travel because he didn't make the foolish decision to go to social media to make a point.

I think it is a harsh decision, but Carneiro made a silly move in trying to undermine Mourinho and has clearly got on the wrong side of a manager who was seemingly moody all day BEFORE the 2-2 draw with Swansea.

I'm convinced it was that post that escalated Mourinho's anger and that becomes justifiable to me, even if the initial criticism was almost laughable... If Chelsea were up 3-2, Mourinho would have been encouraging his staff on to try and waste valuable moments so you reap what you sow as far as I am concerned.


It is only the second round of Premier League fixtures, but already you feel it is a big weekend for Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Arsenal fans. All 3 failed to win last weekend and the two North London teams were defeated and all will want to give their fans something positive to hold onto rather than being in a hole after two games.

Tottenham Hotspur probably didn't expect to beat Manchester United, but a defeat followed by failure to beat Stoke City would put their top four aspirations under threat already.

Everton know Roberto Martinez is under pressure and he might want to get used to the Monday Night Football set if his side make another slow start this season. The 2-2 home draw with Watford was a poor result and a trip to Southampton in front of the television cameras is a tough place to try and bounce back.

Arsenal were tipped by many to win the Premier League title this season, but their 0-2 defeat to West Ham United at The Emirates Stadium was arguably the biggest upset of the opening weekend. Now they head to Selhurst Park to face the flying Eagles of Crystal Palace and yet another slow start to the Premier League campaign could put them behind the black ball in terms of a title challenge before September comes around.


I am sure I wasn't the only one out there wondering what was happening on the opening weekend in the Premier League, but upsets are common place early in the season and you just have to hope to get past them. The only people that seemed to be celebrating were the layers as teams like Chelsea and Arsenal both failed to win and a well backed Bournemouth side were also beaten.

The opening month has been difficult for my picks over the last three seasons too as the upsets rear up, but hopefully it will settle down after the results of last weekend.

The weather is cooling down up and down the country this weekend and the wetter conditions may help teams play their football a little more and I can see a few games enjoying goals with the picks I have made.


Aston Villa v Manchester United Pick: Despite the hot and humid conditions up and down the country last weekend, the Premier League games produced a healthy amount of goals as pre-season is still eliminated from the play. Both Aston Villa and Manchester United were involved in the lower scoring games of the weekend as both won their opening game by the same 1-0 scoreline to give the fans something to believe in going forward.

You can't ever read too much into the opening day results and I can imagine both Tim Sherwood and Louis Van Gaal will be looking for improved performances to match the results. Both have some similarities going into the game as they will be looking for a much stronger home/away set of results respectively and both defences will likely need to improve on the chances they did give away last weekend.

On another day, Bournemouth would have been out of sight long before Aston Villa scored, while Tottenham Hotspur did expose some nerves in the Manchester United backline without getting on the scoreboard.

Aston Villa also struggled at home against the top teams with 7 losses against the top 9 Premier League teams, while any title challenge from Manchester United would mean improving their 2 wins on their travels against those teams in the bottom half.

One thing that Tim Sherwood has given Aston Villa since taking over the manager is a more productive goal-scoring team, although the loss of Christian Benteke needs to be addressed. I expect the home team to have a good go at Manchester United, but also think the same defensive performance as they had against Bournemouth should see United create chances to win the game. Excluding Manchester United, the other teams making up the top six all scored at least twice at Villa Park and there is every chance this is a fixture that produces at least three goals.

The home side will have a real threat from the set pieces they have, but I think Manchester United have the edge in terms of open play if they can get the balance between the attackers right. Goals look to have been under-estimated in this one.


Southampton v Everton Pick: Both teams might have earned 2-2 draws last weekend, but the Southampton fans would have felt a lot happier with their point than Everton fans might be feeling about theirs. While negotiating the Europa League is going to make this a more difficult season for Southampton with their squad size, early on their might use their extra fitness to see off teams.

The Saints were also very strong at home last season and they have won half of their League games at St Mary's over the last couple of years. Only the top four teams won more games than Southampton at home last season and there hasn't been the upheaval of the summer of 2014 which should mean there is more cohesion straight away.

Southampton have won 5 of their last 6 games at St Mary's and they might prove too strong for an Everton team that have lost their way over the last twelve months. Roberto Martinez is under immense pressure as manager and his teams do have a tendency to make a slow start and could have a real problem on Saturday.

Everton were beaten in 7 of their games against the top 9 clubs in the Premier League last season and they have struggled at St Mary's where they have lost on their last couple of visits. 

While there is some attacking talent at Goodison Park, Everton have to hope John Stones is clear in the mind to help a defence that is vulnerable and I do think Southampton prove too strong and have to be backed to win this game.


Swansea City v Newcastle United Pick: Swansea City and Newcastle United both had very good results on the opening day of the season, although both teams might also be a little disappointed they didn't begin with a win.

The game between them on Saturday should be one filled with chances at both ends if the opening game is anything to go by and both fixtures here and in the North East were high scoring last season. There is pace in the forward areas and both defences have shown they can be vulnerable, although the approach that Steve McClaren takes is the key.

We all know that Swansea will play with plenty of possession and look to wear down teams, but Newcastle United had little character away from home last season. Now they seem to have more of a threat and the way this game goes will depend on how Steve McClaren asks his team to play.

If he looks to use the pace that Newcastle United have moving forward, they could be a very dangerous opponent for Swansea on Saturday, but I am expecting the home team to prove too strong. There are still signs that Newcastle United are going to be conceding too many goals through the season, but they will also look to be more effective going forward and this has all the hallmarks of a 2-1 result either way to one of these teams.


West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: Slaven Bilic and Claudio Ranieri both made the perfect start to their new Premier League jobs as the former guided West Ham United to a 0-2 win at Arsenal and the latter oversaw a 4-2 win for Leicester City over Sunderland.

You can't over-react to one game and the feeling that Leicester City will be amongst the relegation candidates in the Premier League is hard to ignore despite the win over Sunderland. The Foxes capitalised on Sunderland defending like they had forgotten the basics over the summer and I don't believe West Ham United will be close to as generous in this match.

The added games in the Europa League have to helped West Ham United have the edge in terms of fitness in the early stage of the season, although backing up an impressive win like they had last week is tough to do. That puts me off a little bit, but West Ham United did win 6 home games against the bottom seven in the Premier League last season.

I do think The Hammers will avoid a relegation scrap, but Leicester City could be down amongst those bottom places which makes me believe the home team are a big price. Claudio Ranieri may look to make his Leicester City team tough to beat on their travels, and I think he may give the momentum to the home team in this one which West Ham can take advantage of.

However, I would keep this at a small interest just because both teams have to pick themselves up from impressive wins last week and overconfidence could lead to errors you wouldn't usually expect.


Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: I am looking forward to this Crystal Palace and Arsenal match on Sunday as it looks like a game where both teams will likely give it a good go to win the three points. There should be some tension on the pitch as Alan Pardew and Arsene Wenger have had their fallings out in the past and I think this is a big test of the character that Arsenal have in their squad after some recent criticisms from Roy Keane.

Ever since Pardew returned to Crystal Palace, he has had his new team flying in the Premier League, although the 10 League defeats at Selhurst Park is a clear area he would look to improve. With the pace Crystal Palace have in forward areas, Pardew won't be afraid of letting Arsenal come onto his side and catch them on the break, while the signing of Yohan Cabaye gives them a player who can unlock defences.

That is where Arsenal have to be careful, although The Gunners have gotten the better of Crystal Palace over the last two years with four straight wins in the Premier League. However, both of the wins last season were incredibly close with Arsenal scoring late at home and Crystal Palace having more shots here in 2-1 results in both games.

Crystal Palace did struggle at home last season and had 10 League defeats which were the most in the Premier League, but they tended to give the top teams some interesting matches. In fact Crystal Palace won half of their home games against the top eight teams in the Premier League so Arsenal do look a short price here.

However, Crystal Palace home games against the top eight teams saw seven of those produce at least three goals and 11 of Arsenal's 19 away games saw that total reached too. I am expecting both managers to ask their players to give this a right go and I do think there will be chances at both ends with goals the likely outcome.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: You can't get a much better chance to lay down an early marker for your season than when the top two teams from last season meet in only the second game of the new campaign. Chelsea are coming with a lot more issues than Manchester City as they try to deal with off-field decisions which the media continue to focus on as Jose Mourinho demoted Eva Carneiro after falling out with the medical staff last week.

I am trying to work out whether the fire in the media is being fanned by those at Stamford Bridge to try and take the pressure off of Chelsea going into this big game. Everyone knows Jose Mourinho likes working the 'us against the world' mentality and he will try to rally his players together to earn a positive result in a big game, even if some rumours suggest all is not well between Mourinho and upper management at Chelsea.

One of the criticisms of Mourinho is the limited time he has been able to work his magic through his career at various clubs and those rumours will be a worry for the Chelsea fans.

However he is still a master tactician and will set Chelsea up to be difficult to beat here at the Etihad Stadium which has been a feature of his return to the club. Chelsea didn't win any of their 4 away games at the teams immediately below them in the Premier League last season, but the games with Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City were all draws.

Manuel Pellegrini has to show that he can gel his team together more effectively than last season, especially as they failed to beat Chelsea or Arsenal at home. He has yet to really get the better of Jose Mourinho and has to show that Manchester City have a plan to break down teams that are going to sit back like Chelsea are likely to do on Sunday.

I know Mourinho would take a draw right now and he is going to have Chelsea tough to beat which has been a feature of his away games at the top teams since returning to Stamford Bridge. In the last two seasons in away games at Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, 8 of those 10 games Chelsea have played have finished with two goals or fewer.

Manchester City are more attacking so their games do feature more goals, but the last two years against Chelsea have seen 4 of the 5 games end with two goals or fewer with the one exception being an injury time goal from Fernando Torres leading to a 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge for the home team.

With a team like Manchester City, goals are never far away, but Jose Mourinho is going to look to stifle them and I imagine Chelsea will settle for the counter-attack. This has worked well for Mourinho in the past and I think this game could be a tight one that might be one of the lower scoring matches of the weekend in the Premier League.


Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: A stunning goal from Philippe Coutinho helped Liverpool earn a measure of revenge against Stoke City last weekend. That goal helped Liverpool win on the ground they were beaten 6-1 at the end of last season and will have helped ease the pressure on Brendan Rodgers, although the manager knows they can't afford to drop points this weekend.

Hosting Bournemouth in their first ever away game in the top flight should be a match that Liverpool are comfortable with, especially as they have beaten them twice on the South Coast over the last couple of seasons in Cup competitions. The arrival of Christian Benteke means Liverpool are still trying to get used to the way the centre forward plays, but the win at Stoke City was mighty impressive after a strong defensive effort.

The form at Anfield, or lack of consistency here, cost Liverpool their top four berth last season and only 4 of their 19 games were won by the home team by more than a single goal. Liverpool won just 10 of 19 League games here and only scored 30 goals, areas they are looking to improve in the coming season if they are to challenge for a top four place.

Eddie Howe may change his tactics, but I think this is a manager that isn't comfortable having to sit his side back and I do believe Bournemouth give this a right go. They might have lost against Aston Villa last weekend, but Bournemouth created a number of chances in the first half and they can give Liverpool something to think about in this one.

I am just not convinced Bournemouth have a defence that will get them too many clean sheets and the increase in level of competition might take a little time to get adjusted to. It might also be what Howe needs to see before the transfer window closes to ensure his Bournemouth team have sufficient quality to compete in the Premier League during the long winter months and this could be a tough eye-opener for them.

Liverpool still look like they need to get their attacking tactics clearer for the entire squad, but I think they will be too good for Bournemouth and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Southampton @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Swansea City-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

August Update: 1-6, - 9.40 Units (13 Units Staked, - 72.31% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)