Tennis Picks 2019 (June 27th)

With just four days to go before Wimbledon gets underway the Seedings have been released, not without controversy, and the draws will be made on Friday morning.

Those players involved in the tournaments played in Antalya and Eastbourne will be focusing on finishing this week with a title as we are down to the Quarter Final matches at all of those events. The WTA event in Eastbourne is of particular importance as it could lay a marker for Wimbledon, while there are important Ranking points on offer in the two ATP events being played even if none of the players in the last eight are really expected to have a big showing in SW19 over the next couple of weeks.

Wednesday ended up being a successful day with two of the three completed Tennis Picks coming back as winners. I did have some fortune when Jelena Ostapenko retired after her early struggles, but the hope is that the Latvian is going to recover in time for Wimbledon and she only pulled out as a precaution after looking like she was struggling with her movement.

It has been a decent week so far, but I am looking to push on with the end of the tournaments before the full concentration can shift to Wimbledon. The first two Grand Slam events have provided positive numbers, but keeping that going will be the goal through another tournament.


Alize Cornet v Ons Jabeur: This is not the Quarter Final anyone would have expected when the draw was made last week, but both Alize Cornet and Ons Jabeur have deserved their spot in the last eight. The decision made by Ashleigh Barty to withdraw from the tournament has helped both of these players, but both have also beaten Seeded players and that should mean there is a real confidence in the play.

In each of the first three matches here so far this week, Ons Jabeur has been showing improvement and she comfortably dismissed an out of sorts Johanna Konta in the Third Round.

The serve has been working pretty effectively so far this week and Jabeur has also shown a little more impact on the return in Eastbourne. However the general numbers in 2019 on the grass courts have not been that impressive and I do wonder if Jabeur can keep up the standard she is at right now.

Like her opponent in this Quarter Final, Jabeur has not had a lot of grass court pedigree in recent years, but this is usually over a small sample of matches. Alize Cornet had also been struggling on the surface, but she has looked very good in Eastbourne and I do believe she is going to have the narrow edge.

The Frenchwoman has gotten more out of the first serve than Jabeur and she has also been returning more effectively with over 50% of return points being won. That number is significantly higher than Jabeur's 44% in Eastbourne, but the Tunisian has had the edge when it comes to the second serve and I do think that is going to make her very competitive.

However I think Cornet's performances should have seen her go into this Quarter Final as a stronger favourite than she is. I do have some reservations about backing Cornet because of her recent past of having a lack of success on the grass courts, but she has looked the better player this week and it has to be noted that Jabeur has also been exceeding her usual levels on this surface.

It might need three sets to separate them, but I will back Cornet to come out on top in this one.


Angelique Kerber-Simona Halep over 21.5 games: There is every chance a match like this one could be gracing Wimbledon at the business end of that tournament in two weeks time. Before we get to that, Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep will be looking to lay down a marker for the third Grand Slam of the season as they get set to face off in the Quarter Final in Eastbourne.

This is going to be the eleventh time Kerber and Halep are meeting on the Tour and the second time they are going to play each other on the grass courts. Matches between them have been very competitive and there really isn't a lot to separate them and half of their previous ten matches have needed to go the distance.

The sole meeting on grass took place at Wimbledon in 2016 and was won by Kerber in two tight sets as both players showed off their returning strength throughout that match. We could see more of the same on Thursday in this Quarter Final as both players are very comfortable on the return side of their game while perhaps not having the most telling of serves.

So far this week Angelique Kerber has had the edge when it comes to the serve as she has won plenty of points behind both first and second serves. Simona Halep has not had quite the same numbers, but she is serving well enough too and the Romanian will be looking at the 51% return points won compared to the 42% won by Kerber this week as being a potential difference maker in her favour.

Over the last couple of years I do think Kerber has been the superior grass court player of the two and she won the title at Wimbledon for the first time last season. The German is also a former Runner Up in SW19 and that does make her an appealing selection as the underdog in this match, although Halep has had the slight edge when it comes to the head to head and was a very close loser in their one previous grass court match.

My expectation is that we are going to see a close match and I would not be that surprised if a third set is needed to separate them as has been the case in half of their previous matches. Even two tight sets like they played at Wimbledon in 2016 will be enough to cover the total games line in this one and that is going to be my selection in this Quarter Final.


Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: There has been a vast improvement in the performances produced by Kiki Bertens on all surfaces over the last couple of years. She has reached a career high World Number 4 in the Rankings and Bertens has seemingly gotten over the real disappointment of having to pull out of the French Open in the Second Round in Paris.

The Dutchwoman had gone into the French Open as a real favourite to go on and win her first Grand Slam and it does feel like an opportunity was lost when you consider how that tournament panned out. But any lingering regrets have not been shown by Kiki Bertens as she reached the Final in Hertogenbosch and now the Quarter Final in Eastbourne on the grass courts.

This is a surface that has sometimes baffled Bertens, but she does have a game that you would think should translate onto it. A strong serve and an aggressive attitude is a good starting point for any player on the grass courts and it does feel like Bertens is beginning to put that together in the past three weeks.

Kiki Bertens has been in very good form in Eastbourne as she has won her two matches without too many worries and her numbers back that up. The first serve has been a potent weapon for her with plenty of points being won behind that shot both here and on the grass in general in 2019, but it is the 54% of return points won that have really propelled Bertens forward.

That side of her game is going to be tested by Aryna Sabalenka who reached the Final in Eastbourne last year. She was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in the Final in 2018, but earned a measure of revenge by overcoming the Dane in the Third Round on Wednesday although I do think Sabalenka is going to need to be even better if she is going to reach the Semi Final.

So far this week Sabalenka has been serving very well too, but she has not been able to return quite as effectively as Bertens. The returning is more productive than it has been in the last couple of weeks when Sabalenka suffered early losses in back to back tournaments so she should be a threat to Bertens, but the head to head is 3-0 in favour of the Dutchwoman and I do think the favourite can win this match and cover the number.

When they have played each other, the Bertens serve has been the stronger of the two players and I do think that is likely going to happen here. With a better return being shown in Eastbourne, Kiki Bertens can win and I will back her to come through to a second Semi Final in a row on the grass courts.

MY PICKS: Alize Cornet @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber-Simona Halep Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Troicki @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-4, + 3.88 Units (22 Units Staked, + 17.64% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 27th)

The ATP selections did not go that well on Tuesday, but all four WTA selections returned as winners which has put this week in a very strong position.

The last week at Roland Garros and the first three weeks on the grass have been a very productive time for the Tennis Picks and that has improved the season totals and also provided some momentum to take into Wimbledon.

Wednesday is another busy day in a week when the tournaments are looking for a Saturday finish, but that doesn't mean I have found many matches which fit my criteria. Some of the matches at the WTA Eastbourne tournament are worth taking a watching brief to build a better picture of Wimbledon so both of my selections come from the ATP events in Eastbourne and Antalya.

I hope they go better than the 1-2 record from the ATP Picks on Tuesday.


Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Kyle Edmund: After being off the Tour for almost exactly twelve months it was always going to be tough to know how Andy Murray would be feeling until he got back onto the court. A delay to his return was probably the best decision Murray could have made especially as he has returned to the Tour and looked in very good shape back on the grass courts.

There is little doubt that Murray is one of the best grass court players out there and he hasn't been given a chance to ease into his return having faced Nick Kyrgios and Stan Wawrinka in his two matches. The former World Number 1 has actually surprised himself with how well he has played in those two matches and it will be interesting to see how Murray's body reacts to a second match in three days which is the next step on his recovery to full time tennis.

Murray did admit to feeling sore for 24 hours after his first match back last week in Queens, but that is nothing out of the ordinary when you think of how long he had been off the Tour and not playing competitive tennis.

While his participation in Wimbledon is far from assured at this point, Murray has shown he is very comfortable back on the grass courts. The numbers behind serve have been better than expected and even more impressive has been the way he has returned and I think he puts plenty of pressure on the current British Number 1 Kyle Edmund.

As well as Edmund has played since Murray has been off the Tour it still has to be pointed out that he is not completely at ease on the grass courts. Edmund is a decent returner, but he has not always produced his best serving on the surface and Murray is an opponent who can expose those vulnerabilities.

Make no mistake about it that both players will be desperate to win this one but I do like Murray's superior grass court pedigree to make the difference in a close match. There is the obvious concern about his fitness and whether he is ready to play again after being out on the court on Monday, but Murray sounds happy with his progress and I think he is able to do enough to win this match and cover the number in a tough Second Round match for both players.


Marius Copil v Damir Dzumhur: It is Marius Copil who is Ranked considerably lower than Damir Dzumhur but the layers are right to think that this could be a very tough match to predict. That is because Copil has shown to be much happier on the grass courts compared with Dzumhur and I think a big serving day will help the Romanian move into the Quarter Final at the ATP Antalya event being played this week.

Last year Dzumhur did show some effective serving on the grass courts, but generally it has been a shot that can be vulnerable on this surface. Unlike so many other players on the Tour, Dzumhur can't expect to get a lot of free points behind his serve and that means he has to work much harder to hold onto his serve.

This is only the second match on the grass in 2018, but Dzumhur had his issues holding serve against Grigor Dimitrov who is a big name player, but one who can't be considered a top returner. Prior to 2017 Dzumhur has had some real problems when it comes to the percentage of games where he holds serve and on a surface like and against an opponent like Copil it could be the difference maker.

It does have to be said that Copil's return is not his strength and I do wonder if he will be able to get his teeth into enough return games to put Dzumhur under pressure. He can try and build some scoreboard pressure by serving effectively and making Dzumhur feel a little edgy as he tries to stay with his opponent.

There is no doubt that Dzumhur's return game is what has made him a player that has moved deep within the top 50 in the World Rankings, but he has yet to really find hi groove on that front on the grass courts. Against this serve it may be very difficult for Copil to change that and I am going to back the lower Ranked player to work his way through this match in what has been set as a pick 'em contest.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marius Copil @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-4, + 8.48 Units (26 Units Staked, + 32.62% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 30th)

The rain looks to be shifting from London and the South Coast of England in time for the Eastbourne tournament and the Wimbledon Qualifiers to be completed on Friday.

The Qualifiers have actually had to extend into Friday as they couldn't be completed in time thanks to the rain around, while the players in Eastbourne had a really busy afternoon with most of them having to win two matches on the same day to advance to the Semi Final and keep that tournament on track.

Some rain remains which means I wouldn't be surprised we either see a delay to the start of proceedings at Eastbourne on Friday, and perhaps another delay in the afternoon, but we are down to the final four in both ATP and WTA events and should be able to get through the schedule.

The Semi Finals are also played in Antalya on Friday to ensure events are completed by Saturday and players involved can make their way to SW19.

Speaking of Wimbledon, the draw for the Gentleman's and Ladies' tournaments will be made on Friday morning and I should have a breakdown of the event ready to go by Saturday with first picks from the tournament's opening day ready by Sunday afternoon.


The tennis picks had a rough day on Thursday with little luck going my way. Seeing Fernando Verdasco blow a huge lead in his loss to Adrian Mannarino summed things up, while I didn't catch the late breaks I needed to finish with a better set of results than I had.

It was frustrating when it looked to at least be salvaged by Verdasco, but hopefully I can put an exclamation mark down on the week and then move into Wimbledon with some momentum.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The last two weeks have been so strong from Daniil Medvedev that it might seem strange to oppose him here with the vulnerable looking Novak Djokovic who is still struggling for his consistency. Another strong run on the grass courts will give the young Russian plenty of confidence to take into Wimbledon, and any fears about the shoulder issues should have been put to the back of the mind.

The returning stats have been particularly favourable for Medvedev and he has had some strong wins over decent grass court players during this portion of the season.

That does make the Russian dangerous, but I think Novak Djokovic has played some pretty solid tennis so far this week as he has protected the serve and also made enough returns to put opponents under pressure. Granted wins over Vasek Pospisil and Donald Young are not the most inspiring of results, but Djokovic has knuckled down and controlled those two opponents which is impressive considering where his mind is supposed to be.

His own return stats have been strong, but the serve makes or breaks Djokovic and he has been looking decent on that side too. Of course he is dealing with power from Medvedev like he hasn't seen a lot of this week, but I also can't ignore Medvedev being broken by the opponents he has been broken by on the grass.

Ivo Karlovic, Sam Querrey, Robin Haase and Steve Johnson are not the best returners out there but have gotten the handle on the Medvedev serve at times. Grigor Dimitrov had considerable success against the serve and I think Djokovic will be able to do the same which can help him come through this one 6-3, 6-4.


Richard Gasquet - 1.5 games v Gael Monfils: I will admit that I picked Gael Monfils to beat Richard Gasquet in Halle and there were a couple of reasons for that. The main factor in play was that I felt Gasquet's back issues would prevent him being able to make the consistent attacking plays to silence the Monfils push, but it has turned out that Gasquet has been feeling pretty good.

The move back to the grass can be easier on the body than the clay courts and Gasquet has thrived with a Semi Final run in Halle last week followed by doing the same here in Eastbourne. Gasquet looked impressive in beating Kevin Anderson and John Isner on Thursday, but those weren't taxing matches so I am not worrying about fatigue being a real issue for him.

Monfils has played well this week with a solid win over Bernard Tomic the stand out win, but his performances on the grass have not been as good as they perhaps should have been. The big first serve is a dangerous weapon for Monfils, but Gasquet will look to dictate on the second serves and he has been returning well over the last two weeks.

The serve has not been as dominant as Gasquet would have liked, but he has been winning plenty of points behind it and I think he can win this one. It may take three sets as it has when Gasquet beat Monfils in Marseille and Halle, but I think he can still cover this number of games.


Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Heather Watson: I have backed Heather Watson on a couple of occasions already this week and the British player has come through for me on her run to the Semi Final. She has played well and a change in tactics which has seen Watson attack the net has also been paying off for her.

The return game has benefited from the aggressive approach, although a couple of the wins she has had a perhaps over-rated by the opponent name rather than the form they have been in.

That won't be the case if Watson is able to beat Caroline Wozniacki in the Semi Final as the former World Number 1 has once again produced some solid tennis at Eastbourne. The serve has been effective enough, but it is the dominance Wozniacki has shown on the return which is going to put Watson under some real pressure.

The defensive work done by Wozniacki is the most noticeable facet of her tennis, but the Dane has been hitting through the court very well here and I think she may just have the edge over Watson despite the upturn in form displayed by the latter.

No one can doubt this is a lot of games being given to Watson, but Wozniacki is capable of breaking down her game and perhaps making enough passes to force the British player to second guess her winning game plan. The first set should be competitive, but I will look for Wozniacki to continue producing the strong return numbers that can see her come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win.


Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Johanna Konta: Winning Wimbledon is obviously the aim of any player in the draw in Eastbourne, but there is extra joy for Johanna Konta who calls this her home. She would love to head to SW19 with the title in the bag, but Konta will have to get the better of Karolina Pliskova who has given her plenty of trouble in their career matches.

The last time they met saw Konta beat Pliskova for the first time at the sixth attempt, but she has lost all three previous matches on the grass including here in Eastbourne last year. On this surface the Pliskova serve is a huge weapon and it has proved to be the difference maker in the matches between these players with the Czech player able to do enough on the return of serve to put the pressure on Konta.

Both have had some solid wins here this week, although the Konta bang on the head at the end of her Quarter Final win over Angelique Kerber has to be a concern. She has been given the all clear, but Konta may still have that on her mind in this one.

Even if she is feeling at 100%, Konta has had some issues getting to grips with this serve that Pliskova possesses. She dealt with it well enough in Hong Kong last year, but on the grass Pliskova has a potent weapon and it has put the pressure on Konta to the point that her own serve begins to offer up some mistakes.

I think that could be the outcome of this one too and I am looking for Pliskova to come out with a three set win and I would think she can cover this number too.


Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: Recent weeks have seen Marcos Baghdatis struggling with fitness and form, but he has produced three solid wins so far in Antalya this week. That has moved him into what is a rare Semi Final these days and Baghdatis will be keen to make full use of that.

He is still one of the more accomplished grass court players out there, but Baghdatis has been set as the underdog against Yuichi Sugita who has produced plenty of wins on the surface over the last month.

The numbers have highlighted how well Sugita has been playing on the grass and he will be a threat to Baghdatis. However the Cypriot has been serving very well this week and been looking after the second serve and I think that gives Baghdatis every chance to keep this one close.

Baghdatis has been returning well this week too and Sugita's serve is one that can usually be attacked despite how well he has put that shot across in recent matches. I was tempted to pick Baghdatis outright to win this one, but getting these games in the pocket could mean that I am not waiting until the end of the match to confirm a winner.

I really believe Baghdatis can win this match, but I don't want the potential need to win a tight final set to bother me. Instead I will be looking for the first two sets to be split at the least and that should give Baghdatis room for a cover in the final set, although I am not completely ruling out the Cypriot winning this one in straight sets with the manner of his performances in the last few days.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-15, - 6.40 Units (56 Units Staked, - 11.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 29th)

I've not been feeling so good on Wednesday and that has nothing to do with the really poor start to the day the tennis picks had as Eastbourne continues to try and catch up thanks to all the rain delays.

Thankfully the results did pick up later in the day, although it does mean there are limited options again on Thursday with a huge number of matches that are expected to see the winners play again later in the day to get the event back on schedule.

It does sound like there will be more delays on Thursday and there might be players needing to play twice on Friday when the weather looks a little better going into the weekend.


The tiredness I have been feeling means I am only going to put the picks up for Thursday as I look for a winning day to get this week moving back in a positive direction.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Elena Vesnina + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-9, + 0.14 Units (38 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 28th)

There was definitely a hope that we would have seen more tennis at Eastbourne on Tuesday than we ended up seeing after a total of twenty minutes clear time was produced over the course of the day.

The early forecasts suggested there would have been around three hours playing time on what was always going to be a wet day on the south coast, but it now means a backed up tournament will be looking for players to play twice on the same day.

That is the case in both the men's and women's events being played in Eastbourne, but the forecast for the rest of the week is not exactly encouraging. The problem on the grass is that even misty rain makes the playing surface dangerous for the players so the tournament organisers both in Eastbourne and those running the Wimbledon Qualifiers will be hoping the expected clear day on Wednesday does come about.

Unfortunately there will be delays at some point with the rain in the area, but hopefully the majority of the matches that need to get this tournament back on track are able to completed during the day.


With the rain at Eastbourne, it meant I only had one pick that was able to be played on Tuesday and Fernando Verdasco was a fairly comfortable winner for me.

That keeps the week in a positive position although the majority of the picks have been held over from Tuesday and scheduled for Wednesday in Eastbourne. You can read those picks here.

Antalya has proved to be a tournament played at the right time with sunny conditions expected all week. At least I know any picks from that event, even if it is not exactly the most inspiring set of players brought together, will be completed without any delays.


Heather Watson + 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: There is only one WTA Third Round match that has seen two of the participants move through this week and that will be one of the late matches scheduled for Wednesday. While the rest of the players have to potentially play Second Round and Third Round matches on the same day, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Heather Watson should be well rested when they face one another.

After getting past the defending Champion Dominika Cibulkova, Heather Watson may have hoped for a much easier task than facing Pavlyuchenkova in the Third Round. Unfortunately the draw in Eastbourne is a tough one so Watson has to accept she has to play her way past some big names if she wants to restore her World Ranking back inside the top 100.

Watson has been serving well enough over the last two weeks to think she can challenge the Russian in this one. It was the serve in the second set that impressed against Cibulkova and has given Watson the confidence to go on the attack when it comes to the return games.

She will need to be at her best against Pavlyuchenkova who has previous on the grass courts having reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final twelve months ago. However this has been a tough couple of weeks for the Russian whose serve has not been working as well as it can and that should give Watson her chances.

It feels like the match could be another close one with Watson perhaps still lacking the confidence to produce consistently. I am expecting the British player to give Pavlyuchenkova some work to do and I will take her with the games to keep this one close.


Janko Tipsarevic - 1.5 games v Andreas Seppi: Go back six years and Janko Tipsarevic and Andreas Seppi would have already competed in the Final at Eastbourne which ended when Tipsarevic was forced to retire with an injury. Injuries have been all the Serb has known in recent years and he is on the road to another full comeback on the Tour.

Age has also been an issue for both players which means both players come into this one outside the top 70 in the World Rankings. The better recent form has been produced by Tipsarevic, although those wins being put together have mainly come on the clay courts.

His loss to Victor Troicki last week at Queens was a disappointment, but Tipsarevic hasn't been producing bad numbers and I think he can get the better of Seppi. The Italian looks on course for his third losing record on the main Tour over the last four years and he has clearly slipped.

You don't want to dismiss the grass court tennis that Seppi is able to play, but his opponent in this one is also comfortable on the surface. Both have been beaten by players in decent form over the last couple of weeks, but I do think the Tipsarevic service numbers give him a big enough edge to back him to win this Second Round match.

I will ask him to cover the number because a retirement is always a possibility in Tipsarevic matches these days. He should have enough to challenge the Seppi serve and break him down on that front with the help of serving well and I will back the Serb to get past Seppi into the Quarter Final.


Radu Albot - 1.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: It came as a big surprise to me that Paolo Lorenzi is the Number 2 Seed in Antalya, but that says a lot more about how well he has played on the Tour in general rather than an indication of his grass court successes. The Italian was beaten comfortably in Halle by Alexander Zverev last week, which is no disgrace, but that is a part of a long run of poor results on the surface.

Lorenzi has lost ten matches in a row on the main Tour in grass court events, although he will feel someone like Radu Albot does give him a chance. However some of the losses for Lorenzi have come against the likes of Teymuraz Gabashvili and Lukas Lacko so it isn't just the big names like Zverev and Roger Federer which have produced such a poor record.

In saying that, Lorenzi will belief he has a good chance to take out someone like Radu Albot. The latter is Ranked much lower than Lorenzi and was beaten by the Italian when they met a couple of weeks ago on the clay courts.

The grass may produce a different result for Albot though after beating Joao Sousa in the First Round thanks to an impressive serving day. He didn't have much of a grass court pedigree before reaching the Second Round at Wimbledon in 2016 after Albot had come through three Qualifiers too and it may have given him confidence to perform on the surface.

Albot's height means he has to really push to get something out of the serve, but he is capable. He has the better returning numbers than Lorenzi too and I will look for Albot to win this match and cover this number in a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Heather Watson + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Radu Albot - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.82 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.78% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 27th)

The tennis Tour has moved across to Great Britain, as well as some other European destinations, over the grass court season in preparation for Wimbledon. We have been fortunate in getting plenty of clear weather to allow these tournaments to get through the matches they have scheduled, but that may not be the case on Tuesday this week.

It looks like the rain in going to arrive in Eastbourne from around 2pm on Tuesday which is likely to cut short the play where there are plenty of Second Round matches scheduled from the WTA event as well as the completion of the First Round from the ATP event in Eastbourne.

Novak Djokovic is likely to have the space to complete his own Second Round match which opens the main court play from 11am, but some of the players later in the day have to prepare themselves for double play on Wednesday when things look a little clearer.


So it sounds like John McEnroe ruffled some feathers with his comments about Serena Williams on Monday, although only those who have offered his comments out of context are getting the silly responses. McEnroe basically told a reporter he did not call Serena Williams the 'best tennis player' in the world instead of his use of 'best female tennis player' because she would not be Ranked in the top 700 of men's tennis.

For some that caused an outrage including calling McEnroe sexist, but only an idiot would disagree with him to put it bluntly. It seems like you can't just call a spade a spade these days.

Serena Williams would not beat anyone in the top 500 of men's tennis on a consistent enough basis to be Ranked much higher than where McEnroe suggested. Only fools who don't understand tennis would disagree with that and this really is a total non-story when you realise his comments have been extracted and then used out of context.

Someone was even dumb enough to suggest Serena would beat Nick Kyrgios, but ultimately looked the bigger fool.

I don't get why people get so upset when people say that the women's players would not be able to compete with the men? It seems to be the only sport where people tend to really get upset about it, but it makes no sense to me at all.

Poor Johnny Mac mustn't know what all the fuss is about, but this kind of story seems to pop up every few months or so.


The tennis picks made a decent start to the week on Monday with a 5-3 finish, but it perhaps should have been a lot better if not for a couple of bad luck moments. That happens and I am looking for the momentum to build on Tuesday even if not all the matches I am picking from can make it through to completion past the expected rain delays.


Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Steve Darcis: Both of these players have shown they can spark on the grass courts at various times throughout their careers, but I am looking to the big hitting that comes from Fernando Verdasco to be too much for Steve Darcis.

The latter has at least won one match here which could make this a closer match than initially anticipated, but Darcis was perhaps a little fortunate to get past Denis Istomin. He doesn't have the big serve to put opponents on the back foot, not even on the grass courts, and someone like Verdasco should have his chance to dictate the tempo of the match.

The lefty Spaniard has a decent first serve which he can use to set up his points, although Verdasco is no longer the player of old and can be very inconsistent. Verdasco has played well on the grass though and his losses have come against some of the better players on the surface which means he is a danger to all in this draw in Antalya this week.

Generally Verdasco won't run into the very top grass players here and I think he can get his week off to a solid start with a win over Darcis. This is a new tournament so it may take Verdasco a little time to find his rhythm here, but the courts are expected to play well having taken advice from Wimbledon as to best prepare them for the event.

It should mean Verdasco can find his feet after a few games and I think that will help him control the match behind his serve and big forehand. I like Verdasco to find his way to a 7-5, 6-4 win in this one.


Mischa Zverev - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: The grass courts should be very much what Mischa Zverev is appreciating after a rough time on the clay and he has had some solid results on the surface over the last couple of weeks. A rare serve-volley exponent is tough to break on this surface and I think he can get off to a positive start in Eastbourne on Tuesday.

The conditions are tough for players to try and rally from the back of the court when the wind picks up, but Zverev backs up a strong first serve with nice volleys. For opponents it is a blast from the past that they are not used to seeing and Zverev will look to get to the net as much as possible when he takes on Ryan Harrison in the First Round.

The American is another who will be glad to be off the clay courts, but Harrison's best results tend to come on the hard courts these days. Harrison has actually lost his last eight main draw matches on the grass courts and he hasn't lit things up at the lower levels or Qualifiers either having gone 4-11 on grass since reaching Wimbledon in 2014.

Harrison has had a good season overall as he is set for his most wins on the Tour since 2012 and he has also won titles in 2017. However he still has a tendency to throw in a couple of loose service games and Zverev has been returning well enough over the last two weeks to think he can take advantage of those lapses in concentration.

I think that will lead to Zverev finding a way to come through this match with a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Over the last two years Daniil Medvedev has shown the improvement he has made on the grass courts as his competition have stepped up. Medvedev reached the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch having come through the Qualifiers and then did the same at a loaded Queens event which shows this young player gets how to play on the green stuff.

One concern has to be the shoulder issue which was bothering Medvedev at the end of his run in Queens and I think that may give Sam Querrey enough of an edge to come through with a win and a cover of this number.

The American was also a Quarter Finalist in Queens last week and Querrey has shown his game works well on the grass with a big serve and heavy forehand combination the key to his success. He had a mixed preparation for Wimbledon last year, but Querrey was a Quarter Finalist in SW19 where he famously beat Novak Djokovic.

Querrey has regularly made the Quarter Final or later in this preparation events on the grass, although his return of serve remains sketchy to say the least. He is also a former winner at Queens back in 2010, but Querrey's biggest strength in this match up may be his steadiness behind the serve which can lead to errors from his opponents.

With the shoulder potentially bothering him, Medvedev is capable of throwing in a poor service game which gives Querrey the chance to pounce. That is what I am expecting as the pressure on the scoreboard increases and I can see Querrey coming through with a 7-6, 6-4 win in this one.


Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: On a grass court this number of games can be tough to cover simply because of the limited chances that some players will get to break serve. However Jeremy Chardy has been returning well enough over the last couple of weeks to think he can beat a disinterested Dusan Lajovic who could be said to 'hate' the grass court season.

While most players will consider this the time of the season to build up some grass court preparation, Lajovic has played a couple of clay court Challengers since the French Open. He didn't play badly having reached the Semi Final in Todi last week, and I can't say I blame Lajovic who has a 1-13 record on the grass courts in his career.

The Lajovic serve isn't that bad, but he clearly can't find his rhythm on the surface and it isn't a serve that will earn enough cheap points to get through games. With Chardy returning as he has been, I would expect him to put the Serbian under pressure while Chardy has been serving big enough to be effective in a match like this one.

Chardy has played some solid grass court players over the last couple of weeks and it has taken Feliciano Lopez to stop runs in Stuttgart and Queens. Those losses don't look bad since Lopez won the title in Queens, especially as Chardy took a set off of him back in Stuttgart.

I would expect Chardy to have the majority of the better tennis played in this one and I would think he can earn the break points to put together a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There may be some big things tipped for Frances Tiafoe, but he is yet to really discover the best way to approach grass court tennis. Facing one of the better grass court players out there will make it very difficult for Tiafoe and I think Richard Gasquet will eventually make that tell on the scoreboard.

The question of motivation for Gasquet may come up as the week goes on after a strong run in Halle was ended in the Semi Final at the hands of Alexander Zverev. With Wimbledon around the corner, it will be interesting to see how much Gasquet wants another long run in an event considering some of the injuries he had, although he wouldn't have entered this event unless he wants to put some wins together.

He should have every chance to get the first of those on Tuesday in the First Round as Tiafoe looks to improve his 3-4 record on the surface. None of those matches have come against someone who is as effective on the grass as Gasquet and you can't ignore the fact that Tiafoe has been beaten comfortably in the four losses he has taken on the surface.

Protecting the second serve has proved a problem in his matches on the grass and I think that may be an issue for him in this one too. The young American is likely to face being given a lesson from the quality of tennis that Gasquet brings and I am expecting the latter to produce a solid win on the day.

Gasquet can serve well enough to keep the pressure on Tiafoe and I think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-3 win on the day.


Donald Young - 2.5 games v Jared Donaldson: It seemed like most people on Twitter on Monday morning had backed Donald Young to get past Kyle Edmund and they were rewarded when the American won the final four games of the match. It wasn't an easy winner after Young actually lost more points and didn't return as well as he would have liked, but he can ride the momentum of that win with another in the Second Round.

This time he faces compatriot Jared Donaldson who has employed two former American stars in Jan-Michael Gambill and Mardy Fish to aid him going forward. Donaldson had a real battle on his hands to get through his First Round match against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman where, like Young, he actually lost more points but won the match.

It was a rare positive result on the grass courts for Donaldson and I am not sure he is going to be able to back that up against Young. These two met on the grass courts of Newport last year in what was a comfortable win for Young in straight sets and the latter has shown more appetite for this surface than his younger compatriot.

The Donaldson serve has not been as effective as he would have liked on this surface and I think Young is able to capitalise on that. Of course you have to say that Young's serve is far from secure in what are likely to be difficult conditions, but I would look for him to back it up a little more effectively of the two players.

It could go three sets, but Young's better returning stats should show up in a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win for the older American.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Lauren Davis: There was some relief for Agnieszka Radwanska when the clay court was officially over and she is back on a much more favoured surface now. The foot injury she has had has bothered her in 2017 and seen some poor results being produced, but Radwanska is more comfortable on the grass courts than many players on the Tour.

One of those is Lauren Davis who has benefited from being a 'Lucky Loser' back into the draw this week in Eastbourne. She took advantage to move into the Second Round but the American has not enjoyed her time on the grass courts.

You can see the problem for Davis whose serve can be attacked with real gusto on this surface as opponents are able to power through the court. Radwanska may not have the power to do that, but she can put the ball into difficult spots which can allow her to get up to the net and also use the drop shot to bring players less comfortable at the net further forward in the court.

The Davis return game is solid enough and she should have some joy against Radwanska's serve, especially as the Pole has been out of a competitive match since the end of May. However the overall grass court stats don't make for good reading for Davis either in 2017 or overall in her career.

After a few games to get back her edge, Radwanska can fight her way to a 7-5, 6-3 win.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: There was some bad blood between Romania and Great Britain in a Fed Cup tie earlier this year with the main issues coming during and after a match between Sorana Cirstea and Johanna Konta. I don't think there will be too many in the Eastbourne stands ready to remind Cirstea of some of the negative comments she made about Konta in a press conference after the match, but I am sure Konta hasn't forgotten them.

Now they meet on a grass court in Konta's home town where she has produced her best tennis on this surface. A decent showing over the last couple of weeks would have given Konta some confidence, but Cirstea is back in the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and is capable of producing some top grass court tennis.

She was a Quarter Finalist in Mallorca in 2016 but generally her time on the grass has seen her come up short against opponents. When Cirstea builds momentum she can be difficult to stop, but Konta should be able to return effectively enough to put the pressure on her opponent in this one.

Konta has some decent returning numbers over the last couple of weeks and Cirstea is someone who can make a number of errors behind her serve which should give the British Number 1 every chance of winning this match. The Konta serve has also been in pretty good shape in her matches in Nottingham and Birmingham and overall she should have enough of an edge to beat Cirstea by a wide enough margin to cover this number of games.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Barbora Strycova: The grass has proved to be a difficult surface for Garbine Muguruza in general, but she had a good run in Birmingham last week and is a former Finalist at Wimbledon. A poor 2017 has dented some of the confidence, but I think Muguruza does get the better of Barbora Strycova in the Second Round here in Eastbourne.

There is room for improvement behind the serve from the limited stats we have in 2017 on this surface, but Muguruza does have a first serve that will give Strycova some real problems to deal with. The Spaniard has returned effectively enough too and I do think that sets her up for success in this one.

As well as I believe Strycova can play on the grass courts, she has been a little erratic with her play and the serve is not working as effectively as it might. That is so important to the outcome of this match as Strycova cannot really rely on breaking Muguruza consistently and allowing her last two opponents to win 41% or better of the points behind her own serve is not going to cut it.

Strycova does play well on the surface which means she will create chances against the Muguruza serve if the latter is not quite at her best. The second serve is where Strycova will look to get her points, but Muguruza's ability to produce the big serve could prove to be a difference maker overall.

I would expect the bigger hitting players to cause problems for Strycova and I am looking for Muguruza to be able to do the same. The Spaniard should have enough power to edge her way through with a 7-6, 6-3 win in this one.


Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Naomi Osaka: I backed Lucie Safarova to beat Naomi Osaka last week but this is a different kind of match for the latter. There is still learning being done by Osaka on the grass courts and facing someone like Caroline Wozniacki who has earned her wins on the surface could be a step too far in Eastbourne this week.

Osaka has some factors that work for her with the most notable being the fact that Wozniacki is playing her first grass court match of the week. However the conditions in Eastbourne tend to be difficult and I think Wozniacki will be able to play her way in as she looks to extract errors from the Osaka game.

The power will come from Osaka as she displayed when brutally moving past Risa Ozaki in the First Round, but I would expect the counter punching of Wozniacki to leave Osaka in some awkward spots around the court. The returning stats have not been that impressive from Osaka either and Wozniacki can get some pop out of her serve on this surface which should mean she has enough of an edge in both serve and return games.

Big hitting players have given Wozniacki some real problems on the grass in the past as her losses have highlighted. While Osaka is in that mould, her confidence with her movement on the surface is perhaps not where it needs to be to cause an upset and I think the frustration of trying to penetrate the Wozniacki defences consistently may lead to more and more mistakes.

After a tight opener where Wozniacki rediscovers her movement on the grass, I can see the former World Number 1 running away with the match in a 7-6, 6-2 win.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Donald Young - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.22 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.13% Yield)