We also move further into the three ATP tournaments being played this week, but the focus for the Tennis Picks remain on the biggest event taking place.
It has been a decent week so far for the selections, but this is looking like the busiest day so far and could determine the trajectory of the profit/loss mark.
Jessica Pegula - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: Ten months ago, Ekaterina Alexandrova reached her career high World Ranking inside the top 20, but she is operating as the World Number 26 this week in Doha.
An early exit at the Australian Open was a blow, but Ekaterina Alexandrova has won a title in Linz and she has now won seven matches in a row. The disappointment of the poor start to the season looks to be behind the Russian and her three wins in Doha will have only increased the confidence.
One of those wins was against World Number 1 Aryna Sabalenka, and Ekaterina Alexandrova has backed that Second Round win up by beating Elise Mertens in the Third Round. That was her best performance of the week and Alexandrova will feel her level is high enough to perhaps earn the upset in this Quarter Final.
The layers certainly feel it is going to be an upset if Ekaterina Alexandrova is able to get the better of Jessica Pegula, the World Number 5 and who has produced two solid wins to take her place in the last eight.
Jessica Pegula reached the Final in Adelaide in the build up to the Australian Open before a Third Round upset defeat in Melbourne.
She has been serving well in her two wins in Doha and both players are going to be relying on that shot to set up control of the rallies. There looks to be a slight edge with the Ekaterina Alexandrova first serve and that may make the difference in what is expected to be a competitive match, especially with both players producing aggressive returning that will be targeting the second serves whenever they can.
Both players have managed to land 62% of their first serves and the player that can avoid falling below that mark is likely going to have the edge in what is expected to be close match.
When the players met in Miami on the hard courts last year, Ekaterina Alexandrova got the better of Jessica Pegula in three sets, but it was a match in which the American will feel she was the better player and deserved to win.
It will be a tough match again, but this time Jessica Pegula could just win the key points to find a way to earn passage into the Semi Final.
She has been the steadier player in the tournament so far, and Jessica Pegula can find one more break of serve than Ekaterina Alexandrova and ultimately that may be enough to cover this mark.
Elena Rybakina + 3.5 games v Iga Swiatek: Players would always love to concentrate on the tennis court and only really have to answer questions about things happening between the lines drawn.
Realistically that cannot always be the case when stories break and that is the case for Elena Rybakina who has been questioned about her former Coach Stefano Vukov remaining suspended from being able to work on the Tour.
They had split as Coach and player last year, but Elena Rybakina was hoping to rehire Vukov this year until the WTA stepped in- making the story harder to understand is that the Croatian has been banned for his treatment of Rybakina, which has been denied by the player herself, and the World Number 7 has stated that she wants to concentrate on her tennis moving forward.
There is clearly some relationship between player and Coach, one that goes beyond tennis, but Elena Rybakina is trying to let her tennis do the talking.
Two solid wins have been produced by Elena Rybakina in Doha, but she faces the highest Seed left in the tournament when renewing her rivalry with Iga Swiatek.
Winning the tournament would push Iga Swiatek right up behind Aryna Sabalenka in World Ranking points and the World Number 2 may feel she is playing with 'house money' after fortunately finding her way through to the Quarter Final. The Pole will have to lift her level again if she is going to beat Elena Rybakina, but Iga Swiatek managed to do that at the United Cup to open this season and she also beat this opponent in the Final here in Doha twelve months ago.
Both of those matches have been won on the hard courts in straight sets and Iga Swiatek is always a dangerous player to oppose.
However, Elena Rybakina has been operating at a good level in her two wins and she has a first serve that can just help her through some difficult moments. The return has been working well too this week and Swiatek could be pushed to the limit and that makes the games being given to the underdog look appealing.
In the last five completed matches between these two rivals, Elena Rybakina would have covered with this many games being given to her on four occasions. The exception was the defeat in the Doha Final in 2024, but that was a much closer match than the final scoreline indicated and this time the World Number 7 can ensure the games total remains within the line set.
Ons Jabeur - 2.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: Last year was a very difficult year for Ons Jabeur and that has contributed to her slipping down to World Number 35, but the run to the Quarter Final has her trending back in a positive direction.
Plenty of fans will be pushing her to try and win the title in Doha and doing that would see Ons Jabeur move back into the top 20 of the World Rankings. The Tunisian may not be thinking beyond each match, and Jabeur has to be feeling more confident with plenty of wins already on the board in 2025.
This is the third time that Ons Jabeur has played a Quarter Final this season, but she has yet to win one of those matches and that is the pressure she will have to deal with on Thursday. She lost a very tight match in this Round against Elena Rybakina last week in Abu Dhabi, but Ons Jabeur reached that stage with a win over Jelena Ostapenko on the way.
The Latvian is the player across the court from Ons Jabeur again and Jelena Ostapenko will be motivated for revenge having lost a tight, competitive match when the players met in Abu Dhabi last week.
That loss had been a part of a poor start to the season for Jelena Ostapenko who had been 1-4 before the start of this event in Doha. Three wins in a row will have given her a real boost in confidence, while Ostapenko may put her poor start to the season down to some tough opening draws.
Losses against Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic can be put into the context of both of those players winning big tournaments this season and so clearly players in some strong form.
The defeat to Ons Jabeur might have hurt a bit more, but Jelena Ostapenko created more Break Points in that match and both sets played were very close.
Both players are performing well here in Doha, especially behind the first serve and that is going to be important for both Jabeur and Ostapenko.
However, Ons Jabeur has been getting a lot more first serves in play and she has protected her second serve more effectively than Jelena Ostapenko and it could be a decisive factor in the outcome of this Quarter Final.
Allowing too many looks at the second serve could be dangerous for Ons Jabeur, especially knowing how aggressive Jelena Ostapenko can be on the return. Getting the Latvian to try and attack the first serve could lead to plenty of mistakes and Ons Jabeur will be well backed by the fans in the stands in her bid to frank the win that was produced when the players met in Abu Dhabi.
It might come down to one or two points in each set, but Ons Jabeur might be able to get through the stickier moments with a more consistent first serve percentage and that could see her cover this handicap mark set.
MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Elena Rybakina + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.57 Units (3 Units Staked, + 85.67% Yield)
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